July 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy has been in Turkey where he met with and received oral support from the Turkish government, and where he appeared with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the head of the Eastern Orthodox Churches.
July 10, 2023
US v. ISIL
US Reaper drones killed had been flying ISIL leader Usamah al-Muhajir, while he was riding a motorcycle in the Aleppo region. The same drones had earlier been harassed by Russian fighter aircraft.
July 11, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Turkey has quit blocking Sweden's admittance into NATO.
Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitskiy, whose vessel fired on a Ukrainian city early in the war, was shot dead on a morning run near the Olimp sport complex in Krasnodar, southern Russia, according to reports.
July 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Turkey dropped objections to Sweden joining NATO, which shall now occur.
A missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov.
July 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Army, has been relieved of his command. He announced his removal to his troops.
The Group of Seven and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments, signalling a more formal arrangement to come, likely after the conclusion of the war.
This more or less means that unless Russia completely defeats Ukraine in the current war, one of Russia's war aims has been lost.
July 14, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US will be deploying 3,000 Reservists to Europe in support of the US's efforts to aid Ukraine.
July 14, cont:
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility. In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.
This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.
This is the first time I've actually seen an order which refers to the Individual Ready Reserve. It makes sense, actually, as IRR troops may have individual skills that would be useful in a t raining role.
My guess is that the IRR troops will be all volunteers for activation.
July 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Putin has indicated that he intends to keep the Wagner Group as a fighting force, but separated from its leader.
The SA, we would not, never amounted to what it had been before Ernst Röhm was offed.
July 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Wagner has been seen in Belarus and there are plans for it to conduct joint drills with the Belorussian army.
Something about this is really odd, and has to relate to whatever deal was struck. The Belorussian Army is generally regarded as pretty bad, FWIW.
Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov has been relieved of his command. It is not known why, but he was noted for speaking up for his troops.
July 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain shipment deal.
On This Week, Chris Christie maintained that Russia's war in Ukraine is being backed by the Chinese for Chinese objectives. This is becoming a persistent Republican theme. That the Chinese may be backing Russia doesn't surprise me, but the suggestion that the war is a Chinese proxy war, which is being made, doesn't ring true.
July 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Attempting to take advantage of commitment of Ukrainian forces elsewhere, the Russians are mounting an offensive in northeast Ukraine.
Ukraine hit the bridge from Crimea to the mainland again, heavily damaging it.
July 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
As Russian minefields take their toll on western-supplied tanks and Ukrainian sappers, their forces have so-far retaken approximately five miles of the sixty miles they need to split the land-bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The land between Mariupol in the east and Melitopol to the west is seen as the vital ground to achieving this.
It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.
This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.
* * *
While much fighting remains to be done across Ukraine’s southern farmlands over the coming months, governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions as one potential political outcome of a failed counter-offensive. Whether a Putinist Kremlin would respect such a deal if Kyiv were to receive security pledges short of full Nato membership is extremely doubtful.
Regardless, this would surely be a favoured outcome for China’s ruling “wolf warrior” foreign policy elite. Beijing would be utterly delighted if the war were to end with Ukraine divided, Russian troops permanently in the Donbas harassing Kyiv and Europe, and Nato fractured on political lines. Such an outcome would be a gift to China as Xi Jinping begins to ramp up his own imperialistic and extra-territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific – and a devastating defeat for the West.
The Telegraph.
Russia is amassing vast numbers of troops and equipment along the northern frontline in Ukraine, Kyiv has warned.
Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told local television that Moscow had gathered more than 100,000 troops on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis, as well as 900 tanks, 555 artillery systems and 370 multiple rocket launchers.
Newsweek.
The Ukrainians are obviously not beaten, and ISW feels the troops in the north that Russia intends to commit to a counteroffensive are of poor quality and will not be successful, but it's obviously the case that the Ukrainian offensive is not achieving its goals in the face of Russian defense in depth and massive use of mines.
July 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia conducted a missile offensive on Ukrainian ports yesterday, no doubt designed to disrupt Ukrainian grain shipments.
July 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
July 21, cont.
Igor Girkin, who is associated with the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 people, was arrested in Russia today by Russian authorities.
Heads continue to keep rolling.
July 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Now Ukraine is in a battle to get back more of the land that Russia seized from it. It's already taken back about 50 percent of what was initially seized. Now they're in a very hard fight to take back more. These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
Drones hit two buildings in Moscow.
A Russian missile strike on Odessa badly damaged the Cathedral of the Transfiguration.
July 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has launched a massive offensive action against Russians in the Zaporizhzhia region. They appear to have cleared defensive obstacles and are pushing through.
July 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.[1] Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.
There are now multiple reports that a "second phase" or "main phase" of the Ukrainian summer offensive have been launched
Niger
Members of the armed forces are attempting a coup.
Syria
Russian Air Force fighters continue to interfere with American drones.
July 31, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow again within the last 24 hours.
Former President Donald Trump, and current candidate, urged aid to Ukraine to be suspended until evidence regarding Hunter Biden is submitted fully to Congress.
These topics are not rationally related to each other, but Trump is demonstrating increasing irrationality in the face of multiple criminal investigations concerning his post election activities.
China v. US
It is being asserted that China has inserted malware into computer networks servicing U.S bases.
August 4, 2023
An attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk by Ukrainian drones resulted in a Russian warship capsizing.
August 6, 2023
Niger
The military asked for help from the Wagner Group to defend itself against anticipated military action by African states to restore the democracy in that country.
Russo Ukrainian War
From the Trib:
DRONES STRIKE RUSSIAN TANKER, PORT
Russia raised the upper limit for conscription to 30 years of age.
August 7, 2023
Niger
Niger has closed its airspace.
August 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland is deploying up to 10,000 troops on its border with Belarus due to the presence of Wagner mercenaries being deployed on the Belorussian side of the border.
August 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has taken Urozhaine.
August 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
A Defense Department briefing of Congressmen has stated that Ukraine will not reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, presuming that to be a key objective, and therefore will not sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea this year.
The report attributes it to minefields and Ukraine determining to ignore Western advice to use a schwerpunkt, particularly after having encountered initial heavy Russian resistance and large-scale losses, something amplified by a lack of air cover.
The report finds that Ukrainian forces will remain several miles outside of Melitopol at the conclusion of the offensive.
There's no way to put a happy face on this conclusion, if it comes true. Opting for attriting Russian forces was reverting to World War One tactics.
At the same time, however, there are now reports of Ukraine committing troops in large numbers which it had held back earlier.
August 18, cont:
A less gloomy view:
August 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian troops have broken through to the north of Tokmak.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast.
August 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.
August 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said.
The BBC.
It can't help but be noted that opponents of Putin have a bizarrely high attrition rate and an unusual number of accidents. It could just be coincidence, but it's weird.
cont:
The early reports had this plane as shot down.
Video shows a plane that looks like it was shot down.
cont:
President Biden on the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin: "I said I would be careful of what I drink and what I rode in. I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."
CSPAN.
As an aside, somehow those who hate everything Biden and love everything Trump will find a way to criticize that pretty honest comment, whereas if Trump said the same thing (which he couldn't due to his weird diction), they'd think it the soul of wit.
August 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.
Cont:
Kristina Raspopova.
She was the flight attendant of Embraer Legacy 600 Business Jet blown out of the sky in order to kill Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagnerites. The young woman had taken the flight in order to be able to return home and to her next station early.
It's not possible to weep for Yevgeny Prigozhin. He lived by the sword and died by it, and the actions of his men have been brutal. It is possible to hope that he realized the gravity of his sins and reconciled before his death.
But killing innocent stewardesses is just flat out murder.
August 25, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine conducted an amphibious commando raid on the facilities of the Crimean municipalities of Olenivka and Mayak.
August 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces continue to grain in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and may be close to breaking out.
August 30, 2023
Gabon
The Gabonese Army has taken over that country in a coup following an election which returned to office a member of the family that has ruled the country for 50 years.
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukrainian paratroopers, in a ground assault role, are flanking Russian positions at Novoprokopivka, a town that sits on the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol.
Ukraine is receiving an additional $250,000,000 in U.S. aid.
A Ukrainian drone attack occured on the airfield at Pskov.
August 31, 2023
China v. Taiwan
The US has approved $80,000,000 in aid to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing, something normally only done for soveign states.
Taiwan, which is the Republic of China, has never declared independence from China. Rather, it's claim to be China's legitimate government has been quietly abandoned over the years. The People's Republic of China, of course, claims the island as it's own and continually threatens to invade it. In reality, Taiwan is de facto independent if not de jure, a status which really ought to change, and which this is a step towards.
It'll probably enrage the Red menance.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian light infantry has infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov has reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a continued attempt to distance himself from the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. I ownder if he's avoiding going up stairs recently?
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