The British took Sheikh Sa'ad.
The Russian Navy took control of the Black Sea.
A steelworkers strike lead to a riot at Youngstown, Ohio.
Last edition:
Showing posts with label Black Sea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Black Sea. Show all posts
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
May 11, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have so far launched two limited efforts in the area, one north of Kharkiv City in the direction of Lyptsi and one northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian armored assault groups of an unspecified size attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning and that fighting continued in the area after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assaults.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces also began infantry-heavy assaults between Strilecha (north of Lyptsi) and Zelene (northeast of Lyptsi) on the night of May 9 to 10.[2] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces significantly intensified airstrikes, shelling, and MLRS strikes against Ukrainian positions, logistics, and infrastructure ahead of and during Russian offensive operations in these areas.[3]
ISW
May 12, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian troops have seized Borysivka, Ohirtseve, Pylna and Strilecha in north east Ukraine. Russia claims to have taken Pletenivka as well, but Ukraine reports fighting in ongoing in Strilecha and Pletenivka, as well as Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi and Hatyshche.
May 13, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced with Andrei Belousov.
Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened’
Middle Eastern War
Secretary of State Blinken made statements yesterday which were highly critical of Israel.
May 14, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Secretary Blinkin is in Ukraine
Russia gained ground in northeaster Ukraine again yesterday.
Ukraine is deploying reservists in the area, which gets to part of the extremely odd nature of the war. Ukraine has conscription, and has used it, but up until recently it didn't dip down to the lower 20s age bracket, and moreover almost all, or maybe all, of the troops it has deployed to the front are volunteers.
This is not true, of course, of Russia.
The US has banned imports of Russian uranium.
Middle Eastern War
Hamas conducted increased attacks in northern Gaza yesterday, demonstrating that it has the ability to reconstitute.
Cont:
China v. The West
Governor Gordon Expresses Support for Decision Blocking Chinese Bitcoin Operation From Owning Land Near FE Warren Air Force Base
CHEYENNE, Wyo. –Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement supporting an order that prevents a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency mining firm from owning land near FE Warren Air Force base. The Governor’s statement follows:
“I am acutely aware and have been monitoring the concerns of surrounding property owners, as well as the potential threats to national security that this operation posed. I am pleased that the Administration recognized the potential threat and took steps to ensure the security of our military installations and the safety of Wyoming residents. Protection of our infrastructure remains paramount to protecting our national security and must always be our highest priority.
I am also grateful to Senator Nethercott for sponsoring SF077 -Homeland defense-infrastructure reporting and investigating to help protect Wyoming's critical infrastructure from foreign threats. I signed this bill, effective July 1, because it provides clear guidance and support to counties, under the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, to investigate land sales near critical infrastructure.”
-END-
May 16, 2024
Middle Eastern War
The US humanitarian pier in Gaza has been completed.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian offensive northeast of Kharkiv has slowed.
May 17, 2024
Middle Eastern War
The U.S. House voted to force President Biden to send arms to Israel.
May 20, 2024
Democratic Republic of the Congo.
A coup attempt was put down over the weekend.
Iran
Iranian President and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash with other members of the Iranian cabinet.
May 25, 2024
China v. Taiwan
Large-scale naval exercises by the PRC have ended.
Middle Eastern War
Egypt is allowing aid to Gaza to cross its border with the enclave.
Three US servicemen have been injured at the humanitarian pier.
Spain, Norway and Ireland said on Wednesday that they would recognize an independent Palestinian state.
May 26, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainians have obtained "combat control" over the areas where the Russians were recently on the offensive.
May 27, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, they hit but did not cause any casualties. Israel responded with airstrikes.
June 2, 2024
Middle Eastern War
President Biden proposed an extended ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for a complete release of hostages. The proposal is causing turmoil in Israel itself.
June 3, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Strikes on infrastructure shut down most of the power grid in Ukraine.
June 5, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia
The Russian military has been decimated. You don’t write about that. It’s been freaking decimated.
Joe Biden to Time magazine.
June 6, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Message for U.S. Citizens: Elimination of “Residence Abroad” Exception to Dual Citizen Departure
Date: June 4, 2024
Location: Ukraine (countrywide)
Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv understands that, effective June 1, Ukraine has eliminated a “residence abroad” exception that previously allowed certain Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 to depart the country. After this change, U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens, including those who live in the United States, may no longer be able to depart the country.
Ukrainian law does not recognize dual citizenship. U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens are therefore treated solely as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and are subject to the rights and obligations of Ukrainian citizens. Under Ukraine’s martial law, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave the country. Previously, dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens in this group could enter and then depart Ukraine if they had deregistered their Ukrainian residency and registered their U.S. residency. According to our information, this exception was revoked as of June 1.
The U.S. Embassy is limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens. If you are in Ukraine and cannot leave the country, shelter in place and obey all local orders. If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport.
We remind all Americans of the State Department’s Level 4: Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine. For further information, see State Department websites for what you should know as a dual citizen traveler, and what we can and cannot do during a crisis.
Assistance:
U.S. Embassy Kyiv
+380 44 521 50 00
kyivacs@state.gov
https://ua.usembassy.gov/
State Department – Consular Affairs
+1-888-407-4747 or +1-202-501-4444
Ukraine Country Information
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive alerts
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter
Mexican Border Crisis
June 7, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will address Congress on July 24 which is probably a phenomenally bad idea.
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the West Bank Palestinian organization the Lion's Den.
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is sending $225M in military aid to Ukraine through Presidential draw down authority.
June 10, 2024
Middle Eastern War
An Israeli raid freed 4 hostages, but resulted in the deaths of 274 Palestinians.
June 11, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian offensive in the north has failed and some ground has been retaken by the Ukrainians.
A Ukrainian offensive in the south has retaken ground held by the Russians since the beginning of the war.
June 16, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
A peace summit has convened in Switzerland, but as the Russians are absent, there's little chance that anything will be accomplished.
June 17, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The conferenced called for Ukrainian territorial integrity to be the basis for peace.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated: "Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine's terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion."
Middle Eastern War
The Israeli war cabinet has been dissolved.
Israel is pausing fighting along a humanitarian route during daytime hours.
June 18, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Interesting set of Russian dismissals and replacements:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024
June 22, 2024
Russo Ukrainian war
The Russians are making extensive use of retrofitted "dumb bombs" converted into glide bombs. The press is treating this as a new weapon, but it is not. Readers here will recall reading about the deployment of the Fritz X German guided glide bomb at Anzio, which was also a devastating weapon.
June 26, 2024
Haiti
Kenyon police are arriving in Haiti as police keepers.
Russo Ukrainian War
North Korea is apparently going to send military engineers to the war in Ukraine.
June 28, 2024
Bolivia
The Bolivian government put down a coup attempt by the commander of its army, General Juan José Zúñiga.
July 4, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskiy challenged Donald Trump to release his peace plan that supposedly will end the war in a day if Trump is unfortunately reelected to the Oval Office.
Ukrainian forces have retreated from a neighborhood in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
Middle Eastern War
Israel annexed five square miles of the West Bank.
Such moves necessarily outrage Palestinians and others.
July 21, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Last Thursday Houthi's launched drones on Tel Aviv, which is an impressive feat. Yesterday Israel retaliated with air strikes on port facilities in Yemen.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia launched its 5th drone attack on Kyiv in two weeks.
July 22, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel intercepted and destroyed a missile fired from Yemen yesterday.
July 25, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
In another of a series of Russian arrests of defense officials, Andrei Belkov, the director of the Defense Ministry's Military Construction Company has been arrested.
The Russian Navy no longer has any vessels in the Sea of Azov.
A Russian drone strike accidentally hit territory in Romania.
July 26, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
From ISW:
Middle Eastern War
Also from ISW:
July 28, 2024
Middle Eastern War
A rocket launched from Lebanese soil killed 11 children in a Druze village in the Golan Heights. The suspect, Hezbollah, denied responsibility.
July 29, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel retaliated with strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
July 30, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israeli Air Force fighter jets eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s most senior military commander [Fu’ad Shukr]
Israeli announcement.
July 31, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a raif of some sort in Iran. He and his body guards went down after attending the swearing in of Iran's new president, showing the extent to which (probably) Israel will go to eliminate its enemies, its military capabilities, and the lack of the same on the part of Iran.
In Iraq, "U.S. forces in Iraq conducted a defensive airstrike in the Musayib in Babil Province, targeting combatants attempting to launch one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS)", according to US officials.
Mali
The Mali army and mercenary Wagner group have taken a pounding after a two day battle with Tuareg separatist rebels and al-Qaeda-linked militants.
August 3, 2024
Mexican Border Crisis
Governor Gordon Responds to Border Crisis by Providing Support to Texas
August 01, 2024
In response to a request for assistance from Texas, Governor Mark Gordon announced that Wyoming law-enforcement personnel will be deploying to the southern border with Mexico.
The deployment of 10 Wyoming Highway Patrol (WHP) troopers later this month is in response to an Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request from Texas Governor Greg Abbott and is being coordinated through the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security (WOHS). During the 14-day deployment, the WHP troopers will provide law enforcement and emergency assistance in support of the Texas Department of Safety. Two deputies from the Natrona County Sheriff’s Office are also planned to deploy at a later date.
“Wyoming is committed to closing the open Biden-Harris border,” Governor Gordon said. “As part of our ongoing relationship with Texas, we will supply resources as they are requested while also making sure we are safe here at home. We are immensely grateful for the willingness of Wyoming law enforcement members and their families to assist in this important effort to help secure our southern border.”
In August 2023, Governor Gordon authorized the deployment of eight Department of Corrections and local law enforcement personnel to provide support along the southern border. Following that deployment, Texas Rangers traveled to Wyoming earlier this year to provide valuable training to Wyoming law enforcement officers. During the 2024 Legislative session, $750,000 was allocated to the Governor’s Office for expenses to assist border state law enforcement efforts.
Following a 2021 visit to the US-Mexico border, Governor Gordon signed a memorandum of understanding with 25 fellow governors in 2022 creating the American Governors’ Border Strike Force. This multi-state partnership was designed to address the negative impacts of increased illegal immigration, including a rise in the presence of illicit fentanyl in Wyoming.
Middle Eastern War
The US is reinforcing its forces in the Middle East following the Israeli bomb (it turned out to be pre planted) that killed the leader of Hamas. Iran will feel compelled to retaliate.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine launched a largescale drone attack on Russian targets overnight.
Zelenskiy is seeking Western permission to strike Russian airfields with long range Western munitions.
August 5, 2024
Mali
In a really odd turn of events, Mali which hired Wagner Group mercenaries in its fight against Tuareg separatist, has cut diplomatic relations with Ukraine upon learning that Ukraine provided intelligence to the Tuaregs prior to the recent disastrous ambush on Wagner and Mali forces.
I doubt Ukraine cares, but if Mali has to rely upon Wagner, it should expect stuff like this.
Middle Eastern War
Israel has said the war has spread to include Iran. That's a comment, but a scary one.
August 6, 2024
Middle Eastern War
A rocket attack injured several U.S. troops at an American base in Iraq.
The 300th AFA is going to Kuwait.
Niger
The US has now completely withdrawn from Niger.
Last prior edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.
Saturday, April 13, 2024
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 4. "Maybe I shall find them among the dead."
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
I am tired of fighting. Our chiefs are killed. Looking Glass is dead. Too-hul-hul-sote is dead. The old men are all dead. It is the young men who say yes or no. He who led on the young men is dead. It is cold and we have no blankets. The little children are freezing to death. My people, some of them, have run away to the hills, and have no blankets, no food; no one knows where they are—perhaps freezing to death. I want to have time to look for my children and see how many of them I can find. Maybe I shall find them among the dead. Hear me, my chiefs. I am tired; my heart is sick and sad. From where the sun now stands I will fight no more forever.
Chief Joseph upon his surrender, 1877.
March 6, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians sank the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov with a drone strike.
It's clear that Black Sea is not safe for the Russian Navy.
March 8, 2024
Hamas Israeli War
The U.S. is setting up an artificial port on the Gaza Strip to deliver humanitarian aid.
Russo Ukrainian War
As s direct result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden has entered NATO, ending centuries of neutrality.
March 9, 2024
Indian/Chinese Border
Indian is sending an additional 10,000 troops to its border with China.
March 10, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Pope Francis stated in an interview with a Swiss journalist:
In Ucraina c’è chi chiede il coraggio della resa, della bandiera bianca. Ma altri dicono che così si legittimerebbe il più forte. Cosa pensa?
“È un’interpretazione. Ma credo che è più forte chi vede la situazione, chi pensa al popolo, chi ha il coraggio della bandiera bianca, di negoziare. E oggi si può negoziare con l’aiuto delle potenze internazionali. La parola negoziare è una parola coraggiosa. Quando vedi che sei sconfitto, che le cose non vanno, occorre avere il coraggio di negoziare. Hai vergogna, ma con quante morti finirà? Negoziare in tempo, cercare qualche paese che faccia da mediatore. Oggi, per esempio nella guerra in Ucraina, ci sono tanti che vogliono fare da mediatore. La Turchia, si è offerta per questo. E altri. Non abbiate vergogna di negoziare prima che la cosa sia peggiore”.
Anche lei stesso si è proposto per negoziare?
“Io sono qui, punto. Ho inviato una lettera agli ebrei di Israele, per riflettere su questa situazione. Il negoziato non è mai una resa. È il coraggio per non portare il paese al suicidio. Gli ucraini, con la storia che hanno, poveretti, gli ucraini al tempo di Stalin quanto hanno sofferto….”.
Translated:
In Ukraine there are those who ask for the courage of surrender, of the white flag. But others say that this would legitimize the strongest. What do you think?
“It's an interpretation. But I believe that those who see the situation, those who think about the people, those who have the courage to raise the white flag and to negotiate are stronger. And today it can be negotiated with the help of international powers. The word negotiate is a courageous word. When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you need to have the courage to negotiate. You are ashamed, but with how many deaths will it end? Negotiate in time, look for some country to act as a mediator. Today, for example in the war in Ukraine, there are many who want to act as mediators. Turkey offered itself for this. And other. Don't be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse.
Have you also offered to negotiate?
“I'm here, period. I sent a letter to the Jews of Israel to reflect on this situation. Negotiation is never a surrender. It is the courage not to lead the country to suicide. The Ukrainians, with the history that they have, poor things, the Ukrainians at Stalin's time, how much they suffered...”.
This has been reported, in accurately, as the Pope calling upon the Ukrainians to surrender, which isn't exactly what he said.
The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church was in the US, calling up Congress to free up support for Ukraine.
Hamas Israeli War
Israel has built a road bisecting Gaza.
March 11, 2024
Haiti
Haiti is in internal turmoil as gangs threaten to topple the government. The US has sent in additional forces to its embassy.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Pope's comments of yesterday have brought rebuke.
March 12, 2024
Hezbollah v. Israel
Israel struck Hezbollah targets from the air yesterday.
March 13, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Pentagon is sending $300,000,000 in weapons to Ukraine, but also revealed its $10B overdrawn in replenishing weapons it has sent already.
Democrats are using the discharge petition process to go around Donald Tump controlled Mike Johnson for funding in the House.
The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion a limited cross-border raid into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts yesterday.
Ukraine hit an oil refinery with drones.
Haiti
Haiti's prime minister resigned. It's largely expected that the gangs that control the capital will play a role in choosing the next government.
Hamas Israeli War
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh presented Hamas’ delusional demands in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in a speech marking the start of Ramadan on March 10. They included a comprehensive ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, the complete return of displaced Gazans, and the resolution of humanitarian issues, and ending restrictions on the movement of people and goods out of the Gaza Strip.
Israel isn't going to agree to that.
March 14, 2024
Haiti
Florida is deploying 250 law enforcement officers and an air-and-sea fleet to address a potential wave of Haitian immigrants.
March 15, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev called for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation.
Hamas Israeli War
Hamas killed the head of the Palestinian Dughmush clan, claiming it had stolen humanitarian aid and cooperated with Israel. The armed clan vowed to retaliate.
March 17, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian rebels in Ukrainian service have been conducting cross border strikes while Russia is conducting an election whose results are basically preordained. The raids have been fairly successful.
The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) conducted a series of successful drone strikes against Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast.
March 23, 2024
ISIS v. Russia, Russia v. Ukraine, Syrian Civil War
ISIS launched a major terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk on the same day that it launched the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the war against Ukraine.
The ISIL attack was a reprisal for Russia supporting the Syrian state.
The ISIL terrorist attack was horrific, and directed against civilians, which can be also said of much of Russia's airborne campaign against Ukraine. Essentially, a terrorist entity has attacked a terrorist state.
cont:
Casualties from the ISIL attack in Russia are now at 153.
March 26, 2024
Afghanistan
The Taliban, whom Donald Trump surrendered to in 2019, is going to start stoning women to death for adultery.
March 27, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians struck the Konstantin Olshansky, which was formerly a Ukrainian Navy ship that was taken into Russian custody in 2014, with an anti shipping missile.
And of interest:
Ukraine destroys unique Russian ‘Doomsday Tank’
March 29, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
And this while Ukraine fights for its life.
Hamas Israeli War
The International Court of Justice ordered Israel to open up more corridors for relief in Gaza.
March 30, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
In an absolutely shocking action, The World Russian People’s Council, chaired by Patriarch Kirill, who reportedly worked undercover for the KGB during the Soviet era, declared the war in Ukraine “sacred" and called for its completely dominance under Russia.
Hamas Israeli War
The US, which can't get its act together due to the Trumpite dominated House of Representatives and Trump's admiration of Vlad Putin, is sending Israel more arms and ammunition, including more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs.
How we can somehow manage one, and not the other, is beyond me, particularly as the Ukrainian need is greater.
April 1, 2024
Hamas Israeli War
Huge protests occured yesterday in Israel over the war.
The War Against ISIL
Retired Marine Corps general Frank McKenzie appeared on this week to warn that ISIL strikes in the US are inevitable, and put the blame squarely on the Trump surrender in Afghanistan.
April 2, 2024
Hamas Israeli War
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to attempt to legislatively shut down Al Jazeera broadcasts in Israel. It accuses the news organization of agitating Palestinians.
Iran v Israel
Israel killed Iranian senior military commanders in Syria Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and some of his top subordinates in an airstrike in Damascus.
The building hit was next to the Iranian Embassy.
Russia v The West
A joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel strongly suggests that the Kremlin has waged a sustained kinetic campaign directly targeting US government personnel both in the United States and internationally for a decade, with the likely objective of physically incapacitating US government personnel. The investigation, which the outlets published on March 31, indicates that the infamous Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) Unit 29155 (the same unit whose operatives attempted to assassinate Sergei Skripal with the Novichok nerve agent in the United Kingdom in 2018) may be using nonlethal directed energy or acoustic weapons to target a large number of US government personnel, each of whom has reported experiencing an “anomalous health incident” (also called “Havana Syndrome”) of varying severity between 2014 and as recently as 2023.[1] The investigation cites intercepted Russian intelligence documents, travel logs, call metadata, and eyewitness testimony that places GRU Unit 29155 operatives at many of the locations where US officials experienced Havana Syndrome, either shortly before or during each attack. The investigation suggested that GRU operatives conducted a directed energy attack against an FBI agent in Florida a few months after the agent interviewed detained undercover GRU officer Vitaliy Kovalev at some point between June and December 2020.[2] Other US government officials claimed they were attacked by the directed energy weapons while they were in the United States, including in Washington, DC. The joint investigation interviewed US Army Colonel Greg Edgreen, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)’s working group investigating Havana Syndrome, who believes that Russia is behind the Havana Syndrome incidents and that the incidents consistently have a “Russia nexus.”[3] Edgreen stated that the incidents all targeted the top five to ten percent “performing DIA officers” and that the victims were either experts on Russia or had otherwise worked to defend US national security interests against Russia. The investigation noted that many affected personnel were assigned to roles aimed at countering Russia following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine after these personnel had previously worked on other portfolios. The investigation reported that these incidents have affected senior US personnel, including a senior official in the National Security Council who served at some point in 2020-2024 and CIA Director Bill Burns’ then-deputy chief of staff who experienced an anomalous health incident in September 2021 in Delhi. Several of the US officials who experienced Havana Syndrome have severe life-altering and career-ending injuries. Many US officials’ spouses and children also experienced Havana Syndrome while deployed overseas.
ISW
April 4, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has dropped its conscription age from 27 to 25.
Both of those are, I'd note, remarkably high conscription ages.
On March 30-31, 2024, the Russian Army launched its largest armored assault of the war but was repulsed with significant losses.
According to Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, during "the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily".
A Ukrainian drone struck a Russian Shahed 136 drone production facility in Tatarstan, over 1,100km from Ukraine.
Wow.
Iran vs. Everyone
An Iranian militia is threatening a major expansion in Jordan.
April 7, 2024
Ecuador v. Mexico
Ecuador raided the Mexican embassy in their country and arrested the former Vice President. Mexico responded by severing diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
Ajerbaijan v. Aremenia
There have been exchanges of artillery fire, apparently, recently although I don't really have the details.
Romania
Romania is about to pass a law allowing for military intervention outside of Romania to protect Romanian citizens. Moldova would be the only logical place for the application of such a law, or perhaps Ukraine.
April 8, 2024
Hamas v. Israel
Israel has withdrawn from Khan Younis bringing its troop presence in Gaza to one of the lowest levels since the war began. This is likely in preparation for entering Rafah.
Israel also announced it had killed Hamas brigade commander Ali Ahmed Hassin.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine hit a Russian controlled nuclear reactor within Ukrainian territory in a drone strike.
Zylenskyy stated that it would be difficult for Ukraine to remain in the war without US aid, which brings up this we posted yesterday:
April 10, 2024
Hamas v. Israel
An Iranian official, in a press interview, threatened the UAE, which maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, trying to pressure it to sever relations with the country.
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is supplying parts for the Ukrainian Hawk missle defense system on an emergency basis.
April 11, 2024
Japan told us today to get our act together:
I detect an undercurrent of self-doubt among some Americans about what your role in the world should be...At a time when our world is at history's turning point...Freedom and democracy are currently under threat around the globe.
Japanese PM Fumio Kishida addressing Congress
April 13, 2024
Iran v Israel
Iran is really saber-rattling in regard to Israel, and its warning the US as part of that. The US has warned it back.
It appears almost certain that the war that started with the Hamas terrorist raid is about to expand.
Russo Ukrainian War
The U.S. and U.K. will begin restricting the trade of new Russian-origin metals including aluminum, copper and nickel.
China, yes, China, is supplying huge numbers of drones to Ukraine, showing that China isn't as pro Russian as might be imagined. China's drones are much cheaper and less technological, and hence less susceptible to electronic interference, than American ones.
Last Edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 3. The Putin's Cheerleaders Edition.
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six
M577 howitzers in Ukraine. The British designed howitzer has been supplied to the Ukrainian forces by the United States, Canada and Australia. It is arguably the best towed artillery piece in the world. By Arsen Fedosenko - https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/309101904718635, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=117964601
May 24, 2022
Yes, part six. In a normal year, there's one version of this all year long. This year, thanks to Russia forgetting that it's not 1945, we're in the sixth installment.
Which is to say that the war in Ukraine has caused the massive ongoing expansion of this thread.
Okay, situation wise, where are we?
Here's the history of the war to date, in the map that demonstrates the Russian advance. . . and retreat.
.gif)
By MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles - Own work derived from File:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg, originally by ViewsridgeItself derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115563226
Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated. The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.
After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity. Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one. Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917. Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days. At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.
Instead, a highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place. As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons. Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.
The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used. Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating. Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however. Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery. Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.
Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this. Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error. Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now. Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.
Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair. Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed. Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase. An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now. Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.
Russia's actions have managed to unite the West to a degree it hasn't been in decades. Its military is discredited in every sense, including morally. How this ends is now being discussed openly, but no matter how it ends, it will be some species of Russian defeat.
May 26, 2022
Moscow has raised the age limit, previously 40, to 50, in which volunteer for service in the Russian army.
May 26, 2022, cont.
Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine
Donations
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has extended his
appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating
used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.
Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort
involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in
the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels
that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the
vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were
donated.
“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this
needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.
Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and
Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock
Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation;
Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.
-END-
May 28, 2022
Russian forces have been trying to take Severodonetsk, but they've failed to encircle the city and their progress has been slow. They have, however, entered part of the city.
They've also been countering a Ukrainian offensive attempt to reclaim Kherson.
Ukrainian partisans units are now operating in the South in areas occupied by the Russians.
May 30, 2022
The Russians, back up by artillery, have been attempting a direct assault of Severodonetsk, abandoning the envelopment strategy they had been deploying.
Orthodoxy in Ukraine saw a split in loyalties before the war commenced, with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church seeking, and receiving, recognition from the head of the Greek Orthodox Church of autocephalous status. When that occurred, the Russian Orthodox Church, which it had been part of, refused to recognize that. Now, that portion of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which remained loyal to the Russian Metropolitan declared its full independence.
This is a confusing situation because if it is independent, its position seemingly now matches that of the larger portion of the church was severed from Moscow prior to the war.
June 1, 2022
The EU has agreed to mostly end oil imports from Russia by the end of the year.
The Russians have largely taken Severodonetsk, but at the same time the Ukrainians are doing well near Kherson.
Belorussia is releasing stores of military equipment to Russia.
Some Russian recruitment centers in Russia have been subjected to attacks by Russians.
June 4, 2022
In spite of dire predictions, fighting goes on in Severondonetsk. Indeed, it seems Ukrainian units backfilled areas taken by the Russians after they were through then. They appear largely stalled almost everywhere.
After repeated pleas for them, the US is indicating it will supply four HIMARS systems to Ukraine.
Note, it's only four.
The system is incredibly advanced and accurate. It's replaced heavy artillery, along with other similar rocket systems in the US inventory.
The rockets are GPS guided, which results in an interesting open additional step for the U.S. in that U.S. satellites are now openly and obviously part of Ukrainian targeting, or will soon be.
June 6, 2022
Russia has hit Kyiv with missiles again, striking a railway repair station.
Russian Maj. Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed in action.
A Ukrainian counter-attack has taken back parts of Severodonetsk.
June 10, 2022
The Russians are in fact deploying T-62s in Ukraine, a tank first introduced in 1961, a tank that is generally regarded as having been outclassed by the British Chieftain and the American M60 shortly after its introduction. They are also pulling mines out of storage that were manufactured in the 1950s, and 152mm howitzers and MRLS systems that were in storage and are of older models.
Front lines have been nearly static.
June 16, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Fighting remains fairly static and in fact is still going on in Severondonetsk. Ukraine has desperately been asking for more artillery.
Ikea is selling its Russian factories.
War On ISIL
A U.S. ground raid in Syria today resulted in the capture of a senior ISIL leader.
June 17, 2022
The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania committed to not requiring Ukraine to terms to end the war. In effect, this is a pledge of unconditional support.
Up to three American volunteers have been reported missing in action in Ukraine.
June 18, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War.
Commander of Russian Airborne Forces Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov has been relieved of his command due to the poor performance of Russian airborne forces in the war.
Afghanistan.
A terrorist attack in Kabul targeted a Sikh temple.
June 24, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk
Ukraine has been approved as a candidate for membership in the EU, the Russian war effort therefore having brought about one of the very things Putin hoped to prevent. Obtaining membership will require Ukraine to meet a set of conditions, including an ongoing committement to democracy and rooting out entrenched corruption in the government.
The Russian Navy has been ordered to mine Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Ukraine has pummeled installations on Snake Island.
June 28, 2022
Russia has defaulted in its debt, the first time a major country has done so since 1918.
A Russian missle strike hit a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.
Russian manpower shortages have run up against a Russian desire to avoid a general mobilization, which is interesting in that there's nothing other than public opinion that really precludes the Russians calling one. They're obviously reluctant to do so, as it would of course mean that they're have a difficult time with a much smaller neighbor.
June 28, 2022, cont
Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022
Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.
As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.
Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.
Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.
As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.
I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.
June 30, 2022
The big overall news is that the way is now clear for NATO membership for Finland and Sweden to go to the member countries parliaments for approval, with approval almost assured.
In large part, Russia launched this war to keep Ukraine from entering the EU and then later joining NATO. During the war its drawn close to both, and now NATO has expanded.
Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island, which it took early in the war. The island likely never had any strategic value to their war effort and overall they more than paid for taking it.
July 3, 2022
Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk, allowing the Russians to take the city.
July 7, 2022
No doubt expressing frustration with the NATO support to Ukraine, lead by the United States, a Putin ally threatened that Russia may seek to "take back" Alaska.
The war itself was static yesterday, perhaps expressing a Russian pause, probably by necessity, after recent gains.
July 15, 2022
Russia is looking at procuring drones from Iran.
Russia is also conducting a largescale recruiting drive for volunteer battalions raised for the war, and from its federal regions. This is interesting in that they're not really conventional soldiers in the Russian Army, but sort of regional volunteers.
Russia has been having trouble raising manpower for the war, and it hsa been unwilling to formally mobilize for various reasons.
July 22, 2022
In an extremely unusual wartime deal, Russia and Ukraine both entered into agreements with the UN and Turkey which allow for grain exports from the region as well Russian fertilizer to safely leave Black Sea ports.
While neutrals intervening on freedom of commerce and freedom of the seas to allow such things to happen has happened in the past, warring parties agreeing to such an arrangment is extremely unusual.
July 27, 2022
Current state of the war according to the British Ministry of Defense:
The Russians seem to be trying to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region prior to attempting to annex it. The Ukrainians are trying to take it back against heavy odds.
July 28, 2022
Ukraine has used percision U.S. missles to wipe out the use of the Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnieper River. The .9 mile long structure was used by the Russians to supply their forces at Kherson.
Russia launched massive missle strikes against Ukrainian targets yesterday, including Kyiv.
The Russians are down to only two ground offensive operations as they apparently not able to sustain more. They're also importing non Russian workers into the Donbas due to Ukrainian civil resistance to going back to work in the region.
August 3, 2022
- China/Taiwan
Red China is conducting military maneuvers in a childish reaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.
Senior US figures have visited Tawian before, but not for 25 years. In the intervening quarter century China's ecnomic importance has risen dramatically, something which was exposed due to COVID 19 shortages, but overall the country is much weaker than generally supposed, or than it itself figues. It has started, in all regards, to act much in the same way that late stage Imperial Germany did.
- Afghanistan/Al Qaida
The United States killed a senior Al Qaeda leader who had particiapted in the 9/11 attacks by way of a drone strike inside of Aghanistan.
The US of course withdrew from the country in 2021, but still asserts the right to strike Al Qaeda and other figures who are operating within the country.
August 3, cont:
The U.S. Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Norway to NATO.
Josh Hawley, Missouri, cast the only note vote.
ugust 5, 2022
- China/Taiwan
Taking a childish page out of North Korea's temper tantrum cartoon book, China fired missiles yesterday to show that they're feeling upset and that they have missiles, this of course following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.
- Russo Ukrainian War
A Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, has caused Russia to halt its offensive operations and redeploy troops in the south and Crimea. This is pretty ample proof of Russia's inability to conduct multiple operations at one time, and of their fear that the Ukrainian offensive may start regaining lost ground.
Russia has been shelling near a Ukrainian nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe, repeating its earlier stupidity from a different nuclear site earlier in the war.
Power use restrictions have been going into place in Europe due to the withdrawal of Russian petroleum.
August 6, 2022
- China/Taiwan
China has cut cooperation with the United States over a host of issues, including climate change, due to its pique over Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.
North Korea entered the game and is also criticizing the US over the same matter, which of course is of little importance as North Korea is pretty much universally irrelevant except as a regional menace.
Speaking of North Korea. . .
- Russo-Ukrainian War
North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. It's been noted that this would mean that Russia would have to feed 100,000 North Koreans that North Korea has trouble doing.
I doubt Russia will take this offer up as it would probably be more trouble than it would be worth, in spite of the infusion of 100,000 men. If it does, the North Koreans will principally be cannon fodder.
A top Russian researcher on hypersonic weapons has been arrested for high treason.
- Israel/Gaza
Israel launched airstrikes into Gaza to address threats it states its identified. Retaliation came in the form of missile strikes.
August 8, 2022
- Russo-Ukrainian War
Putin has apparently relieved three senior Russian generals from their commands within the past week.
- Israel/Gaza
The parties have entered into a truce which seems to be holding.
August 9, 2022
Russia is believed to have sustained over 80,000 casualties in Ukraine so far, of which reportedly 42,000 have been killed.
In comparison, the Russians lost around 15,000 men in their war in Afghanistan.
The U.S. is sending an additional $1B in weapons to Ukraine.
August 12, 2022
Russia has been recruiting from its prison system for soldiers, offering them the end of their prison terms if they will enlist in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.
It is also mobilizing, or putting on a war time footing, its defense industry.
August 14, 2022
A news report holds that Ukrainian partisan action is increasing in occupied areas.
Ukraine whiped out another bridge that was vital to the Russians resupplying their troops at Kherson.
August 15, 2022
The Russians are attempting to take Donestk.
August 16, 2022
The Russian Army has left 20,000 troops stranded on the western bank of the Dnipro due to a withdrawal made necessary by Ukrainian action near Kherson.
August 17, 2022
Apparent partisan action or commando action set off a Russian ammo dump in Crimea.
August 21, 2022
- Somalia
Al-Sabab seized a hotel in Mogodeshu which has now been retaken by Somalian security forces which in turn freed over 100 captives that were seized by the Islamic militants in the raid.
If there's any good news in this it would be that Somalia is sufficiently organized now so as to have security forces.
- Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
August 23, 2022
Ukraine has announced that 9,000 of its troops have died in the war so far.
August 24, 2022
- United States/Islamic militants
The U.S. conducted an air strike on Iranian backed militants in Syria after a recent drone attack on an installaation the U.S. uses in Syria.
- Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia has placed approximately 1,000 children, presumably orphaned in some fashion, with Russian adoptive familes. Relocating children with the intent to destroy their culture is defined as genocide.
Reluctance by the residents of Luhansk to continue to fight in the Russian war has caused Russia to deploy sercurity forces to the oblast.
August 29, 2022
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
A new Russian anti Putin Russian organization has taken credit for this attack.
August 30, 2022
Ukraine has launched an offensive in the Kherson Oblast.
The move was expected, and publicly announced yesterday. It may determine the results of the war.
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five
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