Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XVI. And then the day arrived.

Our lifestyle, our wildlife, our land and our water remain critical to our definition of Wyoming and to our economic future.

Dave Freudenthal, former Governor of Wyoming/

 

December 3, 2023

Oil field, Grass Creek, Wyo, April 9, 1916

Snippets of news articles from this morning:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Fifty oil companies representing nearly half of global production pledged to reach near-zero methane emissions and end routine flaring in their operations by 2030, the president of this year’s United Nations climate talks said Saturday, a move environmental groups called a “smokescreen.”

 Smokescreen it doesn't seem to be. That's a major commitment.  But not as big as this one:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- The United States committed Saturday to the idea of phasing out coal power plants, joining 56 other nations in kicking the coal habit that's a huge factor in global warming.

U.S. Special Envoy John Kerry announced that America was joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which means the Biden Administration commits to building no new coal plants and phasing out existing plants. No date was given for when the existing plants would have to go, but other Biden regulatory actions and international commitments already in the works had meant no coal by 2035.

None of this should be a surprise.  This is where we've been heading for some time, and it's inevitable.  Indeed, I touched on this back in 2017 here:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry

And I cautiously dipped my toe in the water, wondering if Wyoming should ponder a fossil fuel free future here:

Lex Anteinternet: Issues In the Wyoming Election. A Series. Issue No. 1 (a). The Economy again. . . the extractive industries

And here:

Before the Oil. And after it? The economies of Wyoming and Alaska.

Well, now it's coming.

Not that we'll accept it. We'll do anything but.  Our senior Senator in Washington will claim its part of Joe Biden's "radical green agenda", a radical agenda now sought after by the majority of people in the United States, and in the World.  He doesn't believe that, but it sells back home.  With a Republican Party in the state that was ready to boil Governor Gordon in WD40 for daring to say that Wyoming needed to look at a carbon-neutral future, he doesn't dare say anything else as it would imperil his position.  Our junior Senator will likely say nothing at all.

Well, the voices are getting too loud to ignore, and they include people in the oil industry and now even entire nations that depend on petroleum.  From the President, to the Pope, to the Governor of the state, the message is getting pretty clear.  We're going to have to figure out a post fossil fuel economy here.

Quickly.

But, we'll choose not to.  We'll pretend that somehow we can force others to consume the product that we wish to produce, as we've produced it for over a century and a half, and it's our economy.

That, however, isn't the way economies work.

Dear future generations: Please accept our apologies. We were rolling drunk on petroleum.

Kurt Vonnegut

On another topic, the current owners of Remington are closing the doors this week to its Ilion, New York factor.  The company had been headquartered there since 1816.

It'd gone through hard times in the past.  It nearly went bankrupt after World War One when the United States Government cancelled contracts for M1917 Enfield rifles overnight, leaving them with a large stock of unfinished and partially finished rifles.  The Wilson Administration proved to be quite bad at demobilizing.  

Remington, while profitable, had the very bad fortune to be bought by the aptly named Cerebus which focused on AR15 production and drove the company under. Our prior thread on it is here:

Remington Arms Manufacturing Company's bankruptcy. A Distributist Economic Lesson and a National Tragedy. And Chrysler Too.

Cerebus is virtually a symbol of all that is wrong with corporate capitalism.  Named for the three-headed dog that mythologically guards the gates of Hades to contain the dead therein, it might well be recalled, at least since Dante included it, that the creature is in Hell and of it.

Remington's history was mostly associated, over its long existence, with hunting rifles.  That's what the company was founded on in 1816.  It did manufacture military arms on occasion, however.  For example, it was a large scale supplier of contract rifles for the Union during the Civil War.  It's widely admired by riflemen rolling block rifle had a military variant that was purchased by some states in preference to the Trapdoor Springfield series of rifles, and it was in fact better than the Trapdoor.  The rolling block was widely sold overseas as a military rifle.

By and large, however, it never invested heavily in military sales until the Great War, when the British first contracted with it to produce the rifle that had been intended to replace the SMLE, but adapted to .303 British.  The P14 was a major British rifle of the war, but its production ceased in 1917 when the US entered the war, and the same rifle was adopted to the .30-06 and used by the U.S. as the M1917 Enfield.  Remington's production capacity was so vast that somewhat over half of all U.S. troops in World War One carried that rifle, rather than the M1903, and it continued to be used into World War Two.  But the experienced badly burned Remington and nearly left it bankrupt. After that it was extremely reluctant to make military arms, and it only reluctantly took to producing, ironically, M1903s during the Second World War when the government again needed help.  No original Remington arms were invented for the war as Remington didn't try to undertake that as a project, although it did make a continual series of changes in the M1903 which resulted in the M1903A3, nearly a new rifle in some ways.

After the war and into the Cold War, Remington didn't bother with military arms.  It wasn't a contractor to the M14 like H&R was.  It didn't try to enter a rifle into light rifle contests, like Colt did with the AR15 and Winchester did with its M1 Carbine derived competitor.  That all changed when Cerebus bought the company in 2007.

Cerebus also bought the AR15 manufacturer Bushmaster, which was highly regarded in that field.  By 2012 Remington was making M4 Carbines for the Army.  It leaped wholesale into the "America's Rifle" baloney with a hunting variant of the AR15.  It reentered the pistol market, which it had not been in since a brief foray after the Civil War, with a version of the M1911 pistol.  Cerebus didn't seem to understand what it was that Remington actually made.

Indeed, it was telling that a brilliant move by Remington to introduce a fairly cheap 98 Mauser hunting rifle, the 798, came in 2006, the year before Cerebus bought the company, and it quit offering it in 2008, the year after.

In name, it still exists, but now it's headquartered in Madison, NC.  It was the oldest manufacturer in the United States at the time of its bankruptcy, and it died a victim of American capitalism.

December 13, 2023

Governments gathered in Dubai agreed to the:

transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science."

and; 

accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power" and for "tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

This is a major action, if the committing countries are able to stick to it.  Environmentalist will complain that it is too little, too late, but as economists have shown in the past once efforts are made to really commit to a goal, it tends to be reached much more rapidly than anticipated. 

In Wyoming, where the Governor has been taking flak by noting that Wyoming will have to transition away from a carbon based economy, this is going to result in howls of derision, including claims that its part of a "radical green agenda" and "impossible".  It's neither.

December 14, 2023

We can’t reverse market trends, but we can be prepared. Blaming OSMRE — or, more ridiculously, President Biden — only provides another distraction as Wyoming politicians continue to whistle past the graveyard, averting our attention from planning for our future — a new lower-carbon economy that is coming whether we like it or not.

Bob LeResche former Alaska Commissioner, former Executive Director of the Alaska Energy Authority, in the Casper Star Tribune, December 14, 2023.

I used the same phrase, "whistling past the graveyard" here recently at least twice.

But some, it would appear, are not:

This will likely spark outrage in certain quarters of Wyoming, particularly in the GOP far right.   There were howls of derision concerning Governor Gordon's statements that Wyoming needs to plan for a carbon neutral future.  But that future is coming.  Moreover, what this demonstrates is that there are quarters of Wyoming, and Wyomingites, who see things much differently.  

Fremont County does have an interesting mix of residents, people who have retired there, people who have moved there (which includes everywhere else in Wyoming now), people who work in oil and gas (and live mostly in Riverton), people involved in outdoor industries, and residents of the Reservation.  Lander is the county seat, and borders the Reservation, but it is not an oil town.  The same resolution would likely pass easily in Jackson, maybe Pinedale, and Laramie. Cheyenne?  It might.

What about Evanston?

Well, probably, maybe, not, but Evanston is mad at the Wyoming Department of Transportation's plan to put in a semi tractor/trailer parking lot that will hold over 350 trucks and trailers during emergencies.  They don't like it, even though not all that long ago, almost any Wyoming Interstate highway town would have just shrugged their shoulders and figured that some of those truckers would at least order pizzas while stranded.

December 15, 2023

Global coal demand, on the other hand, was at an all-time high last year, due to use in developing countries.

General Motors is closing two plants and laying off 1,300 workers.

Closer to home, it's clear that Governor Gordon, who will not be running for office again (too bad) feels himself free to speak what he really believes.

Gov. Gordon Agrees Climate Change is Real, Says Decarbonizing the West is Possible

On national TV and in Idaho workshop, Gordon promotes his ‘all of the above’ energy strategy

This is of course going to get him a lot of criticism, including the class "he's a RINO" by people not realizing that they're the ones who are departing from the traditional Republican mindset.

December 18, 2023

All new cars in Canada must be zero emissions starting in 2035.

December 27, 2023

10,000,000 Americans will receive raises with boosted state minimum wages on January 1. The new rates apply in 22 states.

December 28, 2023

From the AP:

MEXICO CITY — Mexico launched its army-run airline  Tuesday when the first Mexicana  airlines flight took off from Mexico City bound for the Caribbean  resort of Tulum.

Also, from the AP:

So far in 2023, Americans have bought a record 1 million-plus hybrids — up 76% from the same period last year, according to Edmunds.com. As recently as last year, purchases had fallen below 2021’s total. This year’s figures don’t even include sales of 148,000 plug-in hybrids, which drive a short distance on battery power before a gas-electric system kicks in.

Last Prior Edition:

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XV. The 2% solution?

Lincoln Highway Redux?

Gen. Luke Reiner^[1] head of the Wyoming Department of Transportation, has stated that WYDOT is proposing to reroute Interstate 80 along the path of Wyoming Highway 30.

Eh?

Okay, this is the stretch between Laramie and Rawlins, which is notoriously bad during bad weather.  For those not familiar with I80 in that area, or Highway 30 between Laramie and Rawlins, observe below:

WYDOT Public use map.

For those who are historically minded, you may be thinking that Highway 30, in that area, looks a bit familiar.

That's because that is where the "interstate", or protointerstate if you will, was prior to Interstate 80 being built.

Witness:

Gen. Reiner notes, in his statements to the Cowboy State Daily, that 

“If you look at a map, you’ll see that the old highway, Highway 30, goes further to the north, and then sort of comes down from the north into I-80.  Rumor has it that when they went to build I-80, that the initial route followed the route of Highway 30. And somebody made the decision, ‘No, we’re going to move closer to these very beautiful mountains,’ to which the locals said, ‘Bad idea,’ based on weather. And it has proved to be true.”

I don't know if it's a rumor, and I don't know if they had beauty in mind.  I've heard the same thing about locals warning those building the highway not to get too close to the mountains, only to be disregarded.

Highway 30 followed the route of the Union Pacific, and except in this stretch still largely does.  The Interstate, however, followed a cutoff route of the Overland Trail.  That's significant that the portion of the Overland Trail that it followed turned out to be an unpopular one, and the Army, which garrisoned a post at the base of Elk Mountain, eventually abandoned it.

We've written about that location here:

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Ft. Halleck, sort of. Near Elk Mountain Wyoming

Where Ft. Halleck was, from a great distance.

This set of photographs attempts to record something from a very great distance, and with the improper lenses.   I really should have known better, quite frankly, and forgot to bring the lense that would have been ideal.  None the less, looking straight up the center of this photograph, you'll see where Ft. Halleck once was.

The post was located at the base of Elk Mountain on the Overland Trail, that "shortcut" alternative to the Oregon Trail that shaved miles, at the expense of convenience and risk.  Ft. Halleck was built in 1862 to reduce the risk.  Whomever located the post must have done so in the summer, as placing a post on this location would seem, almost by definition, to express a degree of ignorance as to what the winters here are like.

 The area to the northeast of where Ft. Halleck once was.

The fort was only occupied until 1866, although it was a major post during that time.  Ft. Sanders, outside the present city of Laramie, made the unnecessary and to add to that, Sanders was in a more livable 

Of course, by that time the Union Pacific was also progressing through the area, and that would soon render the Overland Trail obsolete.  While not on an identical path the Overland Trail and the Union Pacific approximated each others routes and, very shortly, troops would be able to travel by rail.

As that occured, it would also be the case that guarding the railroad would become a more important function for the Army, and forts soon came to be placed on it.

Elk Mountain

And, therefore, Ft. Halleck was abandoned.

Whatever the reason for locating Interstate 80 there, and I suspect it had more to do with bypassing a bunch of country, making the road shorter, and the like, it was a poor choice indeed. The weather in that area is horrific during the winter.  Perhaps the irony of that is that this stretch of the National Defense Highway system would have had to end up being avoided, quite frequently, if we'd really needed it if the Soviets had attacked us in the winter.  

Gen. Reiner, who really doesn't expect this to occur, has noted in favor of it:

Our suggestion to the federal government is to say, ‘If you want to do something for the nation’s commerce along I-80, reroute it. Follow Highway 30 — it’s about 100 miles of new interstate, the estimated cost would be about $6 billion. So, it’s not cheap, but our estimate is that it would dramatically reduce the number of days the interstate’s closed, because that’s the section that that kills us.

It doesn't just "kill" us in a budgetary fashion. It kills a lot of people too.  Anyone who has litigated in Wyoming has dealt with I80 highway fatalities in this section.  That makes the $6,000,000,000 investment worthwhile in my mind.

And of course taking the more southerly route doesn't just kill people, as crass as that is to say, it helped kill the towns of Rock River and Medicine Bow, two of the five towns on that stretch of Highway 30 that were once pretty bustling Lincoln Highway towns.^[1]   Highway 30 runs rough through them.  

And of note, FWIW, Highway 30 between Bosler and Rock River

Now, I know that a new Interstate 80 wouldn't go right through Rock River and Medicine Bow, but past them, like Highway 30 does to Hanna, but some people would in fact pull off.  It's inevitable.  

It's a good idea.

Not as good of an idea as electrifying the railroad and restoring train travel, but still a good idea.

It won't happen, however.  Not even though there's still relatively little between Laramie and Rawlins, and it won't cause any real towns to dry up and blow away.  Not even though it would save lives and ultimately thousands of lost travel dollars.  And not even though the current administration is spending infrastructure money like crazy.

Footnotes:

1.  Before he was head of WYDOT, Reiner was the commanding officer of the Wyoming Army National Guard.

When I was a National Guardsmen he was a lieutenant, and his first assignment was to my Liaison section.  I knew him at that time.  He's an accountant by training, and he was in fact an accountant at the time.  His parents were Lutheran missionaries in Namibia, where he had partially grown up.

2.  The towns are Bosler, Rock River, Medicine Bow,  and Hanna.