Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 1. The reap what you sow edition.

January 1, 2026.

China is imposing a 55% tariff on some (it appears quite a bit of) beef from Brazil, Australia and  the United States.

In Casper, Vintage Wine and Spirits and Wyoming Rib and Chop are closed as of this morning.

Donald Trump vetoed a water project in Colorado which was passed unanimously by Congress, and which is in a district that is represented by MAGA Lauren Boebert and which voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump mostly, it appears, as an act of revenge on Colorado.

The costs of at least 350 drugs in the U.S. are expected to rise in 2026.

Also, according to Trump Golf Tracker, Donald Trump has golfed 79 days out of 347 days since returning to office (22.8% of the presidency), at a taxpayer cost of  $110,600,000.

The price of oil today is generally $57.41/bbl, below US profitability.  Wyoming oil is generally at $57.84/bbl.

Coal rose to $107.50 /T on December 31, 2025, up 0.80% from the previous day. Over the past month, coal has fallen 0.78%, and is down 13.72% compared to the same time last year.

January 6, 2026

Venezuela takeover has Wyoming oil industry bracing for market changes: Though Wyoming politicos regard Trump's actions as necessary, oil executives do not anticipate immediate windfall.

There's no part of this that will be a positive for the U.S. economy, or Wyoming's.  There's been too much oil on the market now for years, which has made Wyoming's petroleum economy unstable.  More oil will simply make it worse, much worse.   Sinking a bunch of infrastructure into a foreign country will make it worse.

This will be an economic problem, if not a disaster.

And here's another GOP bit of great economic news:

Wyoming spent $2.4M on hunger relief during shutdown emergency: Food insecurity is soaring in the state due to inflation and other factors, food relief experts say.

January 6, 2026

Venezuela and Greenland.

There's a lot of weird war related news circulating today.

Trump claims that the government of Venezuela is going to, well, here:

The U.S. doesn't need millions of gallons of oil to be sold to the US, and further the means by which Trump claims this will happen, he'll control the sales, is legally dubious.

Frankly, I don't believe that this will occur.  Much of what Trump has been saying about Venezuela is a lie and I suspect this is too.

If it isn't a lie, Wyomingites are going to get another dope slap from the demented fool they voted for.  It'll take the price of oil in the state for years.  It's at $46.37, below profitability, right now.

Of course, the goal would be to depress the price of oil, which consumers in most locations want depressed, even though we ought to be weaning ourselves off of oil.  But closer to home, this is another example of why Wyomingites are absolute idiots to vote for the GOP.

The Nobel Peace Prize winning Venezuelan woman who probably ought to be running the country is headed home.  Hopefully she takes over the government, although there's every sign that the Venezuelan socialist party will continue to do so and not much will really change.

Trump, who is demented, is now threatening Greenland.

If we lived in a sane time they'd be taking him out of the Oval Office in a straight jacket, but the Republican Party is now largely bat shit crazy so there's a real chance we'll do this, even while, for the first time, some Republican leaders are dismissing it.

Trump needs to be removed via the 25th Amendment, and like yesterday.

January 8, 2026


Oh we clearly need to add Venezuelan oil to this scenario.

January 9, 2026

Allowing power usage on this scale is simply insane.

January 10, 2026

$350 Million Transmission Project Links Wyoming, South Dakota Power Grids

Broncos Playoff Mania Drives Tickets To More Than $17,000

January 13, 2026

One year in, Trump's economy is a mess

He may have won on a promise to fix everything, but he's only made it worse.

January 19, 2026

Дональд Трамп — агент России, will be imposing tariffs on NATO members over his avarice for Greenland.

Дональд Трамп — агент России.

January 20, 2026

The stock market is collapsing and Treasury bonds are being sold off by the Danish retirement system due to the instability of the American budget.

If this becomes a general trend over the next thirty days the U.S. will go into a recession and the Dollar will cease to be the global reserve currency. 

All this sparked by the demented avarice of the dimwit in the Oval Office.

January 21, 2026

Trump added $2.25 trillion to the national debt in his first year back in (illegitimate) charge.

Laramie County approves construction of what could become the largest data center in US - WyoFile: Project Jade could eventually use the same amount of electricity as produced by 10 nuclear power plants.

January 26, 2026

Natrona County gas prices soar as Iran tensions, sanctions rock oil markets

January 27, 2026

Posted under fair use exception, there's no other good way to illustrate the dollar tanking like this.

Yeah, Trump sure is making us great again.

February 7, 2026

Trump screws American agriculture:
By the President of the United States of America

A Proclamation

1.  Cattle ranchers have played an integral role in United States history, helping to forge an American identity and an American diet with beef as a key staple food.  Today, beef remains vital in the American diet, evidenced by the fact that the United States is the largest consumer of beef by volume, followed closely by China and Brazil.  And the United States ranks second in per capita beef consumption globally.

2.  But in 2022, the United States faced a widespread and severe drought, affecting beef-producing States, such as Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Kansas.  Texas and Kansas, for example, continue to face persistent drought conditions.  The effects of drought are particularly pronounced for livestock producers as many of their operations rely on precipitation to grow forage crops to feed their herds. 

3.  In addition to droughts, wildfires have affected the grasslands of the western United States, including America’s cattle-producing States.  Apart from the direct threat of burns and burn-associated deaths to cattle, cattle ranchers have had to adapt to indirect effects of wildfires, including changes in grazing patterns, loss of feed supplies, and suboptimal animal health for those cattle surviving the wildfires.

4.  Given the demand for beef, certain United States cattle farmers and ranchers supplement their herds, specifically their feedlot stocks, with cattle (calves) imported from Mexican ranchers.  But following new detections of the New World screwworm in Mexico in May 2025, the Department of Agriculture Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service, in conjunction with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), restricted the importation of live animal commodities from or transiting through Mexico, further limiting domestic feedlot stock supplies.

5.  These factors have combined to result in the United States cattle herd contracting to record lows.  As of July 2025, the United States cattle inventory totaled 94.2 million head, including 28.7 million beef cows.  This is one percent lower than the United States cattle inventory surveyed in July 2023, continuing the downward trend of cattle inventory in the United States.

6.  The abovementioned factors have also cumulatively resulted in higher beef prices for United States consumers, including for ground beef.  Since January 2021, ground beef prices have continued to rise, reaching an average of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the highest since the Department of Labor started tracking beef prices in the 1980s.

7.  Despite the increased prices and the availability of more affordable protein alternatives, United States consumers’ demand for beef remains strong.  The United States imported a record high amount of beef in 2024, reaching 4.64 billion pounds, a more than 24 percent increase in beef imports since 2023.  Among the beef products the United States imports are lean trimmings, which are blended with fattier domestic trimmings to produce ground beef products, such as hamburgers.

8.  The Secretary of Agriculture has monitored the domestic supply of beef products subject to a tariff-rate quota (TRQ), including lean beef trimmings falling under Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) statistical reporting numbers 0201.30.5085 and 0202.30.5085, and noted the domestic supply of such products and substitutable products combined with the estimated imports of such products under the United States beef import TRQ.  The Secretary of Agriculture also advised on related domestic demand and pricing.

9.  As President of the United States, I have a responsibility to ensure that hard-working Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families.  After considering the information provided to me by the Secretary of Agriculture, among other relevant information, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the United States beef TRQ to increase the supply of ground beef for United States consumers.

10.  Section 404 of the Uruguay Round Agreements Act (URAA) (Public Law 103-465, 108 Stat. 4809, 4959-61 (19 U.S.C. 3601)) authorizes the President, in certain circumstances, to modify TRQs on certain agricultural products.  In particular, section 404(b) of the URAA (19 U.S.C. 3601(b)) provides that where imports of an agricultural product are subject to a TRQ, and where the President determines and proclaims that the supply of the same or directly competitive or substitutable agricultural product will be inadequate, because of a natural disaster, disease, or major national market disruption, to meet domestic demand at reasonable prices, the President may temporarily increase the quantity of imports of the agricultural product that is subject to the in-quota rate of duty established under the TRQ.  And section 404(d)(3) of the URAA (19 U.S.C. 3601(d)(3)) provides that the President may allocate the in-quota quantity of a TRQ for any agricultural product among supplying countries or customs areas and may modify any allocation as determined appropriate by the President.

11.  After considering the information provided to me by the Secretary of Agriculture, among other relevant information, I find that imports of lean beef trimmings into the United States are currently subject to the United States TRQ for beef and determine that the supply of lean beef trimmings or directly competitive or substitutable agricultural products will be inadequate to meet domestic demand at reasonable prices because of a natural disaster and major national market disruption.  Accordingly, I determine that it is necessary and appropriate to temporarily increase the quantity of imports of lean beef trimmings subject to the in-quota rate of duty established under the beef TRQ.  In addition, I determine that it is appropriate to allocate all of the increased in-quota quantity of beef, as established by this proclamation, to Argentina.

12.  Section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), authorizes the President to embody in the HTSUS the substance of statutes affecting import treatment, and actions thereunder, including the removal, modification, continuance, or imposition of any rate of duty or other import restriction.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 404 of the URAA, section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended, and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, do hereby proclaim as follows:

(1)  For calendar year 2026, the aggregate in-quota quantity for certain products described in Additional U.S. Note 3 of Chapter 2 of the HTSUS will be increased by 80,000 metric tons (mt).  

(2)  The additional 80,000 mt described in clause (1) of this proclamation will apply only to lean beef trimmings classifiable under HTSUS statistical reporting numbers 0201.30.5085 and 0202.30.5085. 

(3)  The additional 80,000 mt described in clauses (1) and (2) of this proclamation will be administered on a first-come, first-served basis in four quarterly tranches.  The first tranche of 20,000 mt will open on February 13, 2026, and close on March 31, 2026.  The second tranche of 20,000 mt will open on April 1, 2026, and close on June 30, 2026.  The third tranche of 20,000 mt will open on July 1, 2026, and close on September 30, 2026.  The fourth tranche of 20,000 mt will open on October 1, 2026, and close on December 31, 2026.

(4)  The additional 80,000 mt described in clauses (1) and (2) of this proclamation is allocated in its entirety to Argentina.

(5)(a)  To establish the TRQ amendments described in this proclamation, the HTSUS is modified as set forth in the Annex to this proclamation.

(b)  The United States Trade Representative (Trade Representative), in consultation with CBP, shall determine whether any additional modifications to the HTSUS are necessary to effectuate this proclamation and shall make such modifications to the HTSUS through notice in the Federal Register, including any technical correction to the Annex to this proclamation.

(6)  The Secretary of Agriculture shall continue to monitor the domestic supply of lean beef trimmings, as the Secretary considers appropriate, and shall advise me on the domestic supply of lean beef trimmings or directly competitive or substitutable products, combined with the estimated imports of such products under the TRQ as adjusted by this proclamation, and how such availability relates to domestic demand at reasonable prices.  The Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the Trade Representative, shall inform me of any circumstances that, in the Secretary’s opinion, might indicate the need for further action and shall recommend to me any additional action I should take, if necessary.

(7)  Each executive department and agency (agency) is authorized to and shall take all appropriate measures within its authority to implement this proclamation.  The head of each agency may, consistent with applicable law, including section 301 of title 3, United States Code, redelegate any of these functions within their respective agency.

(8)  Any provision of previous proclamations and Executive Orders that is inconsistent with the actions taken in this proclamation is superseded to the extent of such inconsistency.  If any provision of this proclamation or the application of any provision to any individual or circumstance is held to be invalid, the remainder of this proclamation and the application of its provisions to any other individuals or circumstances shall not be affected.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this

sixth day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-six, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and fiftieth.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

Well that not only hurts Wyoming, it directly hurts me.

Well this will be fun at the next gathering "are you surprised that Trump. . . "

And something to remember:

Tom Lubnau: This Session, A Failed Budget Shuts Wyoming Down

February 8, 2026

U.S. Cattle Population At 75-Year Low Creates Demand, Profit For Wyoming Ranchers

And here's a delightful one:

The Rural Blog: Agriculture leaders warn of possible 'widespread c...: Nearly half of all U.S. farms are not profitable. (Photo by Matthew Putney, DTN) A bipar...

February 12, 2026

The ongoing effort to beat the dead horse of coal back into life, which won't work but which does ignore a developing climate crisis, continues.

STRENGTHENING UNITED STATES NATIONAL DEFENSE WITH AMERICA’S BEAUTIFUL CLEAN COAL POWER GENERATION FLEET

Executive Orders

February 11, 2026

Parent

Current

Section 1.  Purpose.  The United States must ensure that our electric grid –- upon which military installations, operations, and defense-industrial production depend — remains resilient and reliable, and not reliant on intermittent energy sources.  The grid is the foundation of our national defense as well as our economic stability.  Any prolonged disruption caused by energy shortages, foreign supply dependencies, or intermittent generation threatens the operational readiness of our Armed Forces and the safety of the American people.

Given our Nation’s vast coal resources and the proven reliability of our coal-fired generation fleet in providing continuous, on-demand baseload power, it is imperative that the Department of War (DOW) prioritize the preservation and strategic utilization of coal-based energy assets.  Coal generation ensures that military installations, command centers, and defense-industrial bases remain fully powered under all conditions — including natural disasters, or wartime contingencies.  Maintaining this capability is a matter of national security, strategic deterrence, and American energy dominance. 

Sec. 2.  Policy.  Pursuant to Executive Order 14261 of April 8, 2025 (Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry and Amending Executive Order 14241), and Executive Order 14262 of April 8, 2025 (Strengthening the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid), it is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security, and that our electric grid must use power generation resources that have abundant fuel supplies capable of extended operations to address the national emergency declared pursuant to Executive Order 14156 of January 20, 2025 (Declaring a National Energy Emergency).

Sec. 3.  Power Purchase Agreements with Federal Installations.  The Secretary of War, in coordination with the Secretary of Energy, shall seek to procure power from the United States coal generation fleet by approving long-term Power Purchase Agreements, or entering into any similar contractual agreements, with coal-fired energy production facilities to serve DOW installations or other mission-critical facilities, with priority given to projects that enhance:

(a)  grid reliability and blackout prevention;

(b)  on-site fuel security; and

(c)  mission assurance for defense and intelligence capabilities.

Sec. 4.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

(d)  The costs for publication of this order shall be borne by the DOW.

                             DONALD J. TRUMP

THE WHITE HOUSE,

February 11, 2026.

There's no such thing as "clean" coal, and these things always look like they're captioned by a toddler.  

It's notable that those backing this rank stupidity will be long dead before the problems that it adds to will impact everyone living.  

This won't breath life back into coal's dead corpse.  It probably won't even do anything other than waste money, as by the time it would be implemented, the Republican Party in general and Donald Trump in particular will be out of office. The DoD probably just slow rolls stupidity like this.

Wyomingites will celebrate this.  Next year it'll be found that coal production has declined again.

Meanwhile, domestic oil production is tanking.


February 17, 2026.

From the CST:


Of course he does.  He's not interested in the peasantry, or even know they exist.

As Pam Bondi stated, more or less, what's a little rape, or even a lot, if the NASDAQ is up?

February 20, 2026

February 21, 2026.

Trump's been bouncing off the walls since his tariffs were struck down, even though it was obvious that they were unconstitutional.  He's been insulting the Supreme Court and basically acting like a completely spoiled toddler.

He's imposing a global 15% tariff under a separate statutory provision, but that is time limited.  This sort of reaction stands to likely be detrimental to the economy.

This is also likely to be a sign of things to come.  Trump isn't getting his way and is such a little child that he just goes berserk.  If he has any mental capacity left at all when the ballroom project gets completely scrapped, he'll go into a massive tantrum.

February 22, 2026

The Washington Post reports that the $500B increase in the Defense Department budget was so large that the DoD can't figure out how to deal with it.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 13. Disassociation.


Thursday, February 5, 2026

''Trump Has Lost the Country’ | Interesting Times with Ross Douthat


 Likely to be the most accurate prediction of the Trump legacy of them all.

In short, conservatives, Trump is ruining you for the next 100 years.

Thursday, January 29, 2026

The 2026 Election, 4th Edition: The Wasting No Time Edition*

 

The Wyoming races went from speculative to active virtually overnight, thanks to Sen. Lummis' announcement that she was not going to run again.

We'll note, before looking at the state of the races, that not a single Democrat has announced for any of these offices so far.  It is early, of course, but hopefully some do.  Otherwise, given recent examples, the races tend to be "how far right can we go", which isn't conducive to democracy or health politics in general.

December 24, 2025

Cynthia Lummis political future was barely deceased before the opportunities that it presented were being exploited.  It's caused a lot of shifting about and pondering, as this news article relates:

Degenfelder 'Strongly Considering' Run For Governor, Others Ponder Higher Office

We'll take a look, therefore, at where we current are in the 2026 races, now that the charge has started.

U.S. Senate

GOP

Harriet Hageman.

Our prediction came true amazingly fast.  Harriet Hageman announced for the Senate yesterday.

Well. . . of course she did.  She nearly had to, before other state Republicans volunteered to pick up the Senatorial baton and run past her, which is how Lummis obtained the seat in the first place, announcing before Liz Cheney could.  And in doing so, she immediately picked up endorsements from those whom she should have feared would run, and who very well may have.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, for instance, endorsed Hageman, stating:

She is the fighter that we need to defend the conservative movement in this country and in Wyoming,  I endorse Congresswoman Hageman for her campaign for US Senate. Harriet has advanced our Wyoming values as a member of the US House, protecting Wyoming industries and our way of life.

Degenfelder is somebody who clearly has political ambitions beyond the office she holds, as noted below.  

Chuck Gray, who clear does also, also came immediately out of the chute to endorse Hageman, although probably nobody really cares about Gray's endorsements.  He stated:

She will do the same as our US Senator. Congresswoman Hageman has my complete and total endorsement for US Senate.

There were, as we noted, already two filed candidates, although we can now doubt that one of them will go for the Senate, as we'll discuss below.

Hageman also picked up the endorsement of Donald Trump, which in spite of  Wyoming being the state that is the most enamored with the illegal occupant of the White House, probably doesn't really mean all that much.  As Wyoming is also the the state with the highest percentage of citizens who are enrolled in the AHCA, by the primary date that may be a bit of a liability, if Wyomingites wake up to the fact that they're played the fool by Donald Trump nearly daily.1

The local state of the economy might play a role in that as well.  The price of Wyoming oil today is $43.91/bbl. Hageman has already made a statement about Wyoming contributing to the great state of the economy (as she sees it) due to energy, but the fact of the matter is that the current price is a good $20.00/bbl below what Wyoming needs it to be in order for Wyoming crude to be economic.  Nationally oil is at $58.60/bbl, which is right at the break even point.  Moreover, if the agricultural markets decline, and save for beef they're in bad shape, she might end up bearing the brunt there as well.

Reid Rasner

Rasner filed forever ago, and he's running for something, but what isn't exactly clear.  Earlier it was apparently Lummis' seat, after having failed to push Barrasso out of his. Now it appears, however, that he's reconsidering.

Rasner is simply deluding himself on his chances for any office, but it's not for want of trying.

Jimmy Skovgard.

Nobody really knows anything about Skovgard, but he is, or at least was, running.

U.S. House of Representatives

GOP

Gavin Solomon

One dipshit carpetbagger of New York Gavin Solomon has filed as an annoyance.

The state needs to do something about out of state residents running for Wyoming offices, as in make it criminal.

Other possibilities.

It's clear that Chuck Gray, discussed in more depth below, has his eyes set on this seat.  He has to run for it, or for Governor, or his political career is over.  

If Gray runs, other Republicans will as they won't wont to see him in this office.  My guess is that Casper's Tim Stubson may do so, and might whether Gray runs for this office or not.  It's likely some current members of the legislature will as well, including both moderate Republicans and Freedom Caucus members.

Governor

The Lummis reshuffling of the deck has caused politicians to reassess their aims, as we're very quickly seeing.  That's impacting the race for Governor.

GOP

Eric Barlow

Barlow is running, and is the front runner. He's a rancher and a traditional conservative.  He wisely got out in this race first, and has been campaigning for awhile.  So far, he's pulled way ahead of the pack.

Brent Bien

Bien was a career Marine Corps officer and is running on the archetypical "I spent my entire career elsewhere sucking on the Government tit and I'm here to tell you why you won't get to".

That's really harsh, but in recent veterans who had guaranteed pay and guaranteed retirement have come into or back to Wyoming and campaigned on hating the government, which if they do, they should have resigned their careers and worked in the uncertain world of American capitalism like the rest of us.  Their position is really hypocritical.  They've never had to punch a clock or write down their time daily, or worry about income and expenses.

Bien, I'll note, was a Marine Corps aviator and retired as a Colonel.  That's honorable service, which fully qualifies him to be a Marine Corps aviator.

Bien is a figure of the far right, as would be predictable.  Most of the returning or imported candidates who are veterans have been.

Meggan Degenfelder

The State Sueprintendant of Education indicates that she's  "Strongly Considering"  running, which practically means that she is.  She was probably pondering this move all along, but may have been hedging her bets on inside information to see what Hageman would do.  If Hageman hadn't announced for Senate, she probably would have, and she likely would have been a strong candidate.  It's surprising for that reason that she didn't announce for the House.

I have mixed feelings about Degenfelder, who has tacked to the generally far right, but not so much that she's a Freedom Caucus type.

Reid Rasner

Rasner has filed early for Senate, as noted above, which has been ignored by the press, but is now publicly indicating he many run for Governor.  A person has to wonder if Delgenfelder's announcement will cause him to back off.

He's sure running for something.

Other possibilities.

Chuck Gray is running for something, and has taken a page out of Rasner's book and has recently run a television ad in which he boosts himself without saying what he's running for.

Gray has a loyal pack of acolytes, like Donald Trump, but he's worn increasingly thin over while he's been Secretary of State.  He's locked horns constantly with Gov. Gordon and other members of the State Land Board, which means that if Degenfelder runs she's going to skewer him like a pot sticker.  He's not from Wyoming and doesn't come across as a guy who could survive in the state for more than a brief vacation if he wasn't backed by family money, although perhaps that's deceptive.  He rose to his current office in part by backing election lies and has tried to make the mission of the Secretary of State's office to return Wyoming elections to the year 411.  He's intensely disliked by a lot of people, and openly so.  While in office he's operated the same way that Rep. Jim Allemand has, by claiming to be from the far right but then embracing local environmental issues when convenient.

A dark horse candidate right now would be Governor Gordon himself.  While theoretically blocked by term limits, it's well known that they are unconstitutional and would not survive a legal challenge.  Having said that, the entry of Barlow into the race would strongly suggest that Gordon will not attempt a run.

Treasurer

GOP

Curt Meier

Curt Meier is running for reelection and will be successful.

December 25, 2025

Hageman's Senate Run Reignites Criticisms Over Public Lands

As well it should.

December 30, 2025

Chuck Gray, surprising noone, announced that he's running for Congress.  In announcing, the fish out of water Californian stated:

I’m running for Congress to continue fighting for Wyoming’s way of life. With Congresswoman Harriet Hageman running for U.S. Senate, Wyoming needs a representative who will build on her strong record, advance our shared Wyoming values, and advance the Trump agenda that has delivered the largest margin of victory in the nation in three straight presidential elections.

Chuck Gray announces bid for U.S. House

On the last item, Gray fully endorsed the lie that Trump beat Biden, and is still apparently wedded to the outright fabrication, along with some new "margin of victory" lies.

The Californian is a Freedom Caucus member, and was immediately endorsed by them.  He released a video for his campaign that makes it clear that he's awkward in Wyoming settings, as to be expected, and fully wedded to MAGA and its hero, Donald Trump.

January 3, 2026

Reid Rasner has announced that he isn't running for Governor but will announce what he's running for this week.

Footnotes

*Regarding the coloration on this post, blue is recognized worldwide as the color of the right, and red of the left.  In the U.S. in recent years the opposite has been the case as some total bufador reversed it.  At least in this thread, we're not doing that.

1.  Regarding the primary:

Party Changes

The state of Wyoming passed legislation affecting when a registered voter is allowed to change their party affiliation.

  • You MUST appear in person in the Elections office on or before May 13, 2026 to declare or change your party affiliation.    
  • NO party changes at the polls on Primary Election Day.
  • Qualified voters who are not yet registered will still be able to register and choose their party on the day of the Primary Election.

Absentee Voting

The timeframe for voting absentee has shortened from 45 days to 28 days.

  • Absentee ballot request may be made by phone, mail, emailonline or in person.
  • Your ID is required to vote in person or to pick up a ballot.

Absentee voting for the Primary Election:     July 21 - August 17, 2026
Absentee voting for the   General Election:     October 6 - November 2, 2026

January 6, 2026

George Conway, former Republican, former spouse of  Kellyanne Fitzpatrick, and a conservative is running as a Democrat for Congress in NY-12:

January 8, 2026

Reid Rasmer announced that he's throwing himself in a flaming blaze of misbegotten hubris ignited glory into the race for the U.S. House.

So we now have two far right candidates who will be in favor every stupid thing Donald Trump says even as he takes steps to wreck the American standing in the world, screw the Wyoming economy, and wreck the environment Wyoming depends on.  

There's room for a moderate candidate, or a conservative one, here.

My prediction is that this will get nasty.  Chuck Gray has been full of shit so long that he won't be able to help himself and he'll start slinging it like a zoo chimpanzee  Rasner will ignore it, but will seek the embrace from the political right, which will reject it as he's an acknowledged homosexual.

That Rasner is "out" and unapologetic about it, while not making a big deal about it, is really to his credit actually.  His sexual orientation does appear to have been the source of a vile rumor campaign against him which he justifiably brought suit over, but that entire episode reveals a lot about the state of the GOP.  The person sued was himself the father, in Florida (most of the Freedom Caucus are actual or intellectual Confederate ex pats), of a child by way of an underaged teenagef girl when he was an of age teenager.  There's a pretty strong anti homosexual bias in the GOP far right which really, at the same time, in spite of its embrace of Evangelical Christianity is basically okay with sexual immorality, at least if its of a conventional type.  But if people are going to raise flags on the issue, they ought to explain the mysteries they present themselves.

That's not the normal Wyoming norm, where such questions are not usually openly asked, but its probably time that they are. Rep. Hageman has for years indicated how strong family values are to her, but she has no children of her own.  Nephew's and nieces aren't substitutes for your own children.  There may be a tragic medical reason for this, but it could be avoidance for career, which is neither traditional or admirable.

This campaign will focus in people's minds, although they will not admit it, that Chuck Gray, age 36, isn't married.  It's not the case that everyone has to be married, and at one time it wasn't regarded as particularly abnormal that a 36 year old man or woman would not be married and have no known significant other, but following the Sexual Revolution it has been.  And frankly it is odd.  What does that say about his character that he can draw such public attention, but not a suitable spouse (and no, I'm not claiming he's a homosexual, but rather that being unmarried at 36 is odd).

Nasty questions?

Yes, but in an age where Wyoming elected somebody like Bill Allemand, and in one in which Republican figures where the symbols of Crusaders on their chest, when those Crusaders would have found them to be heretics, it might actually be time to ask them.

January 2026

This news makes puts Degenfelder on the don't vote for, for anything again, every list.

‘RUN MEGAN, RUN!’ Trump Promises Endorsement If Degenfelder Runs For Governor

Involving a current client:

Gordon To Gray At Wind Meeting: 'Do You Want To Step Outside?'

In Gordon's defense, all sentient life forms would like to invite Gray outside and point him back towards California, which is what I'm going to assume Gordon meant.

January 12, 2026

Megan Degenfelder is now officially running for Governor.  She claims she announced after an insane clown urged her to do so on X.

January 13, 2026

Barrasso Endorses Hageman's Candidacy For U.S. Senate

Former Democratic Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola is running for the Senate.

January 14, 2026

Jillian Balow, former Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction announced for the House.

I don't know what I think of Balow, other than she's actually from Wyoming, and a better candidate than Rasner or Gray.  When she was Superintendent of Public Instruction, I didn't pay all that much attention to the position.  She must have been fairly well thought of as she was recruited away by Virginia, where the position is not elected.

Balow was, by my recollection, a breath of fresh air compared to Cindy Hill who came before her, who was the first Wyoming politician who fell into what we might now regard as the Wyoming Freedom Caucus camp, although it wasn't called that at the time, and probably didn't even really exist.  Hill ended up being very controversial and hugely unpopular, and should have served as a warning sign as to what was to come.

So, right now for the House, we have:

Chuck Gray, who is a carpetbagging founding member of the Freedom Caucus.

Reid Rasner, who is a gadfly.

Jillian Balow, who is the only palatable candidate to announce so far.

Well, that is that Solomon guy, but he's a joke. And a Daniel Verl Workman has done so as well, as an Independant, and he's a joke.

Following up on yesterday's news, the Demented Caudillos endorsement of Degenfelder probably means that unthinking MAGAs are now in her corner, dooming the campaign of Brent Bien.  Frankly, that's a good thing as both Degenfelder and Barlow are leagues better than Bien.  Having said that, Barlow is clearly a much better choice than Degenfelder who is still pretending to drink the Koolaide.

January 17, 2026

It didn't take Gray long to go full weasel:

My record shows that I’m the  only candidate in this race that has  the track record of getting com mon sense conservative priorities  done. My track record is in sharp con trast to the others in the race. Jillian  Barlow [sic] has a Liz Cheney 2.0 profile.

Having a Cheney 2.0 profile would be a good reason to vote for Barlow, but that's pretty much baloney.  Gray went on to accuse Reid of being all talk.

The Trib reports that  David Giralt, a former advisor to Lummis, plans on joining the race.  I don't know much about him, but he's noted to be a veteran, which isn't a reason to vote for or against him.  He's also a member of the Knights of Columbus, which means he's Catholic.  Gray is also Catholic, which doesn't seem to have kept him from telling some whopping lies in the past.

January 20, 2026

Knezovich drops out of Wyoming governor race due to eligibility requirement

We failed to even note him, but after reading the article about him, he would have been on our don't vote for list, fitting into a whopping three categories.

January 21, 2026

Forcibly retired Admiral Nancy Lacore is running for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District.

I don't know anything about the district, but what this symbolizes is that Trump's enemies lists are lining up to get into Congress.

We will conclude this edition with this entry.

January 22, 2026

Skovgard, whom we mentioned above, is in fact running for the U.S. Senate.

Skovgard publishes a blog, which might reveal his positions on things.  Otherwise he's really a bit of a mystery right now.

One thing about Skovgard is that, right now, the other two candidates in this race, Hageman and Rasner, are on the don't vote for list.  That may simply be because we don't know anything about him.  Having said that, if the election were held today, we'd seriously consider Skovgard as we won't vote for the other two.

January 24, 2026

One Joseph Kibler is running for Governor as an independent.  He's a Californian who moved in and is running what appears to be, more or ess, a religion based campaign.  It'll go nowhere.

January 28, 2026

A Hageman event sounds like it was poorly attended and didn't go really well:

Rep. Hageman touts Wyo earmarks, faces fiery ICE questions in Casper

People didn't show up, and jeered Hageman on her response to 4th Amendment violations in Minnesota and her delusional response on climate change.

When she left the stage early, after a round of ICE questions, Hageman was booed.

Of course, predictably, Jane Ifland appeared to represent Democrats from 1973.

January 29, 2026

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running for Governor of Minnesota.  Klobuchar has run for the Democratic nomination for President in the past.

Related threads:

Pollice Verso. The 2026 Political Negative Endorsement. The Don't Vote For List.

Last edition:

The 2026 Election, 3rd Edition: The Self Inflicted Wound Edition.