The Wyoming races went from speculative to active virtually overnight, thanks to Sen. Lummis' announcement that she was not going to run again.
We'll note, before looking at the state of the races, that not a single Democrat has announced for any of these offices so far. It is early, of course, but hopefully some do. Otherwise, given recent examples, the races tend to be "how far right can we go", which isn't conducive to democracy or health politics in general.
December 24, 2025
Cynthia Lummis political future was barely deceased before the opportunities that it presented were being exploited. It's caused a lot of shifting about and pondering, as this news article relates:
Degenfelder 'Strongly Considering' Run For Governor, Others Ponder Higher Office
We'll take a look, therefore, at where we current are in the 2026 races, now that the charge has started.
U.S. Senate
GOP
Harriet Hageman.
Our prediction came true amazingly fast. Harriet Hageman announced for the Senate yesterday.
Well. . . of course she did. She nearly had to, before other state Republicans volunteered to pick up the Senatorial baton and run past her, which is how Lummis obtained the seat in the first place, announcing before Liz Cheney could. And in doing so, she immediately picked up endorsements from those whom she should have feared would run, and who very well may have.
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, for instance, endorsed Hageman, stating:
She is the fighter that we need to defend the conservative movement in this country and in Wyoming, I endorse Congresswoman Hageman for her campaign for US Senate. Harriet has advanced our Wyoming values as a member of the US House, protecting Wyoming industries and our way of life.
Degenfelder is somebody who clearly has political ambitions beyond the office she holds, as noted below.
Chuck Gray, who clear does also, also came immediately out of the chute to endorse Hageman, although probably nobody really cares about Gray's endorsements. He stated:
She will do the same as our US Senator. Congresswoman Hageman has my complete and total endorsement for US Senate.
There were, as we noted, already two filed candidates, although we can now doubt that one of them will go for the Senate, as we'll discuss below.
Hageman also picked up the endorsement of Donald Trump, which in spite of Wyoming being the state that is the most enamored with the illegal occupant of the White House, probably doesn't really mean all that much. As Wyoming is also the the state with the highest percentage of citizens who are enrolled in the AHCA, by the primary date that may be a bit of a liability, if Wyomingites wake up to the fact that they're played the fool by Donald Trump nearly daily.1
The local state of the economy might play a role in that as well. The price of Wyoming oil today is $43.91/bbl. Hageman has already made a statement about Wyoming contributing to the great state of the economy (as she sees it) due to energy, but the fact of the matter is that the current price is a good $20.00/bbl below what Wyoming needs it to be in order for Wyoming crude to be economic. Nationally oil is at $58.60/bbl, which is right at the break even point. Moreover, if the agricultural markets decline, and save for beef they're in bad shape, she might end up bearing the brunt there as well.
Reid Rasner
Rasner filed forever ago, and he's running for something, but what isn't exactly clear. Earlier it was apparently Lummis' seat, after having failed to push Barrasso out of his. Now it appears, however, that he's reconsidering.
Rasner is simply deluding himself on his chances for any office, but it's not for want of trying.
Jimmy Skovgard.
Nobody really knows anything about Skovgard, but he is, or at least was, running.
U.S. House of Representatives
GOP
Gavin Solomon
One dipshit carpetbagger of New York Gavin Solomon has filed as an annoyance.
The state needs to do something about out of state residents running for Wyoming offices, as in make it criminal.
Other possibilities.
It's clear that Chuck Gray, discussed in more depth below, has his eyes set on this seat. He has to run for it, or for Governor, or his political career is over.
If Gray runs, other Republicans will as they won't wont to see him in this office. My guess is that Casper's Tim Stubson may do so, and might whether Gray runs for this office or not. It's likely some current members of the legislature will as well, including both moderate Republicans and Freedom Caucus members.
Governor
The Lummis reshuffling of the deck has caused politicians to reassess their aims, as we're very quickly seeing. That's impacting the race for Governor.
GOP
Eric Barlow
Barlow is running, and is the front runner. He's a rancher and a traditional conservative. He wisely got out in this race first, and has been campaigning for awhile. So far, he's pulled way ahead of the pack.
Brent Bien
Bien was a career Marine Corps officer and is running on the archetypical "I spent my entire career elsewhere sucking on the Government tit and I'm here to tell you why you won't get to".
That's really harsh, but in recent veterans who had guaranteed pay and guaranteed retirement have come into or back to Wyoming and campaigned on hating the government, which if they do, they should have resigned their careers and worked in the uncertain world of American capitalism like the rest of us. Their position is really hypocritical. They've never had to punch a clock or write down their time daily, or worry about income and expenses.
Bien, I'll note, was a Marine Corps aviator and retired as a Colonel. That's honorable service, which fully qualifies him to be a Marine Corps aviator.
Bien is a figure of the far right, as would be predictable. Most of the returning or imported candidates who are veterans have been.
Meggan Degenfelder
The State Sueprintendant of Education indicates that she's "Strongly Considering" running, which practically means that she is. She was probably pondering this move all along, but may have been hedging her bets on inside information to see what Hageman would do. If Hageman hadn't announced for Senate, she probably would have, and she likely would have been a strong candidate. It's surprising for that reason that she didn't announce for the House.
I have mixed feelings about Degenfelder, who has tacked to the generally far right, but not so much that she's a Freedom Caucus type.
Reid Rasner
Rasner has filed early for Senate, as noted above, which has been ignored by the press, but is now publicly indicating he many run for Governor. A person has to wonder if Delgenfelder's announcement will cause him to back off.
He's sure running for something.
Other possibilities.
Chuck Gray is running for something, and has taken a page out of Rasner's book and has recently run a television ad in which he boosts himself without saying what he's running for.
Gray has a loyal pack of acolytes, like Donald Trump, but he's worn increasingly thin over while he's been Secretary of State. He's locked horns constantly with Gov. Gordon and other members of the State Land Board, which means that if Degenfelder runs she's going to skewer him like a pot sticker. He's not from Wyoming and doesn't come across as a guy who could survive in the state for more than a brief vacation if he wasn't backed by family money, although perhaps that's deceptive. He rose to his current office in part by backing election lies and has tried to make the mission of the Secretary of State's office to return Wyoming elections to the year 411. He's intensely disliked by a lot of people, and openly so. While in office he's operated the same way that Rep. Jim Allemand has, by claiming to be from the far right but then embracing local environmental issues when convenient.
A dark horse candidate right now would be Governor Gordon himself. While theoretically blocked by term limits, it's well known that they are unconstitutional and would not survive a legal challenge. Having said that, the entry of Barlow into the race would strongly suggest that Gordon will not attempt a run.
Treasurer
GOP
Curt Meier
Curt Meier is running for reelection and will be successful.
December 25, 2025
Hageman's Senate Run Reignites Criticisms Over Public Lands
As well it should.
December 30, 2025
Chuck Gray, surprising noone, announced that he's running for Congress. In announcing, the fish out of water Californian stated:
I’m running for Congress to continue fighting for Wyoming’s way of life. With Congresswoman Harriet Hageman running for U.S. Senate, Wyoming needs a representative who will build on her strong record, advance our shared Wyoming values, and advance the Trump agenda that has delivered the largest margin of victory in the nation in three straight presidential elections.
Chuck Gray announces bid for U.S. House
On the last item, Gray fully endorsed the lie that Trump beat Biden, and is still apparently wedded to the outright fabrication, along with some new "margin of victory" lies.
The Californian is a Freedom Caucus member, and was immediately endorsed by them. He released a video for his campaign that makes it clear that he's awkward in Wyoming settings, as to be expected, and fully wedded to MAGA and its hero, Donald Trump.
January 3, 2026
Reid Rasner has announced that he isn't running for Governor but will announce what he's running for this week.
Footnotes
*Regarding the coloration on this post, blue is recognized worldwide as the color of the right, and red of the left. In the U.S. in recent years the opposite has been the case as some total bufador reversed it. At least in this thread, we're not doing that.
1. Regarding the primary:
Party Changes
The state of Wyoming passed legislation affecting when a registered voter is allowed to change their party affiliation.
- You MUST appear in person in the Elections office on or before May 13, 2026 to declare or change your party affiliation.
- NO party changes at the polls on Primary Election Day.
- Qualified voters who are not yet registered will still be able to register and choose their party on the day of the Primary Election.
Absentee Voting
The timeframe for voting absentee has shortened from 45 days to 28 days.
- Absentee ballot request may be made by phone, mail, email, online or in person.
- Your ID is required to vote in person or to pick up a ballot.
Absentee voting for the Primary Election: July 21 - August 17, 2026
Absentee voting for the General Election: October 6 - November 2, 2026
January 6, 2026
George Conway, former Republican, former spouse of Kellyanne Fitzpatrick, and a conservative is running as a Democrat for Congress in NY-12:
January 8, 2026
Reid Rasmer announced that he's throwing himself in a flaming blaze of misbegotten hubris ignited glory into the race for the U.S. House.
So we now have two far right candidates who will be in favor every stupid thing Donald Trump says even as he takes steps to wreck the American standing in the world, screw the Wyoming economy, and wreck the environment Wyoming depends on.
There's room for a moderate candidate, or a conservative one, here.
My prediction is that this will get nasty. Chuck Gray has been full of shit so long that he won't be able to help himself and he'll start slinging it like a zoo chimpanzee Rasner will ignore it, but will seek the embrace from the political right, which will reject it as he's an acknowledged homosexual.
That Rasner is "out" and unapologetic about it, while not making a big deal about it, is really to his credit actually. His sexual orientation does appear to have been the source of a vile rumor campaign against him which he justifiably brought suit over, but that entire episode reveals a lot about the state of the GOP. The person sued was himself the father, in Florida (most of the Freedom Caucus are actual or intellectual Confederate ex pats), of a child by way of an underaged teenagef girl when he was an of age teenager. There's a pretty strong anti homosexual bias in the GOP far right which really, at the same time, in spite of its embrace of Evangelical Christianity is basically okay with sexual immorality, at least if its of a conventional type. But if people are going to raise flags on the issue, they ought to explain the mysteries they present themselves.
That's not the normal Wyoming norm, where such questions are not usually openly asked, but its probably time that they are. Rep. Hageman has for years indicated how strong family values are to her, but she has no children of her own. Nephew's and nieces aren't substitutes for your own children. There may be a tragic medical reason for this, but it could be avoidance for career, which is neither traditional or admirable.
This campaign will focus in people's minds, although they will not admit it, that Chuck Gray, age 36, isn't married. It's not the case that everyone has to be married, and at one time it wasn't regarded as particularly abnormal that a 36 year old man or woman would not be married and have no known significant other, but following the Sexual Revolution it has been. And frankly it is odd. What does that say about his character that he can draw such public attention, but not a suitable spouse (and no, I'm not claiming he's a homosexual, but rather that being unmarried at 36 is odd).
Nasty questions?
Yes, but in an age where Wyoming elected somebody like Bill Allemand, and in one in which Republican figures where the symbols of Crusaders on their chest, when those Crusaders would have found them to be heretics, it might actually be time to ask them.
January 2026
This news makes puts Degenfelder on the don't vote for, for anything again, every list.
‘RUN MEGAN, RUN!’ Trump Promises Endorsement If Degenfelder Runs For Governor
Involving a current client:
Gordon To Gray At Wind Meeting: 'Do You Want To Step Outside?'
In Gordon's defense, all sentient life forms would like to invite Gray outside and point him back towards California, which is what I'm going to assume Gordon meant.
January 12, 2026
Megan Degenfelder is now officially running for Governor. She claims she announced after an insane clown urged her to do so on X.
January 13, 2026
Barrasso Endorses Hageman's Candidacy For U.S. Senate
Former Democratic Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola is running for the Senate.
January 14, 2026
Jillian Balow, former Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction announced for the House.
I don't know what I think of Balow, other than she's actually from Wyoming, and a better candidate than Rasner or Gray. When she was Superintendent of Public Instruction, I didn't pay all that much attention to the position. She must have been fairly well thought of as she was recruited away by Virginia, where the position is not elected.
Balow was, by my recollection, a breath of fresh air compared to Cindy Hill who came before her, who was the first Wyoming politician who fell into what we might now regard as the Wyoming Freedom Caucus camp, although it wasn't called that at the time, and probably didn't even really exist. Hill ended up being very controversial and hugely unpopular, and should have served as a warning sign as to what was to come.
So, right now for the House, we have:
Chuck Gray, who is a carpetbagging founding member of the Freedom Caucus.
Reid Rasner, who is a gadfly.
Jillian Balow, who is the only palatable candidate to announce so far.
Well, that is that Solomon guy, but he's a joke. And a Daniel Verl Workman has done so as well, as an Independant, and he's a joke.
Following up on yesterday's news, the Demented Caudillos endorsement of Degenfelder probably means that unthinking MAGAs are now in her corner, dooming the campaign of Brent Bien. Frankly, that's a good thing as both Degenfelder and Barlow are leagues better than Bien. Having said that, Barlow is clearly a much better choice than Degenfelder who is still pretending to drink the Koolaide.
January 17, 2026
It didn't take Gray long to go full weasel:
My record shows that I’m the only candidate in this race that has the track record of getting com mon sense conservative priorities done. My track record is in sharp con trast to the others in the race. Jillian Barlow [sic] has a Liz Cheney 2.0 profile.
Having a Cheney 2.0 profile would be a good reason to vote for Barlow, but that's pretty much baloney. Gray went on to accuse Reid of being all talk.
The Trib reports that David Giralt, a former advisor to Lummis, plans on joining the race. I don't know much about him, but he's noted to be a veteran, which isn't a reason to vote for or against him. He's also a member of the Knights of Columbus, which means he's Catholic. Gray is also Catholic, which doesn't seem to have kept him from telling some whopping lies in the past.
January 20, 2026
Knezovich drops out of Wyoming governor race due to eligibility requirement
We failed to even note him, but after reading the article about him, he would have been on our don't vote for list, fitting into a whopping three categories.
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