You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.
Ernest Hemingway.
August 7, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.
August 8, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.
An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).
ISW.
August 9, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk. Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.
August 10, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.
August 15, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.
cont:
And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.
Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.
August 16, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.
Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:
In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions. Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.
August 17, 2024
Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.
August 22, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.
August 25, 2024
ISIL v Everyone
ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.
Middle Eastern War
Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza
It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.
I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.
cont:
Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.
August 28, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.
By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.
The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.
September 4, 2024
China v. Taiwan
In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.
If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.
Here's the territory he referenced:
That's a lot of territory.
From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?
September 5, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.
September 9, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.
September 10, 2024
China v. India
Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days. China and India's border is disputed.
September 11, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:
Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?
Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate. Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe.
September 16, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with. The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.
September 17, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.
Yikes.
September 18, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.
For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.
September 19, 2024
Middle Eastern War
And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.
September 20, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.
The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.
Russo Ukrainian War
Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders. Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.
On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.
It became unpopular anyway, of course.
September 22, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel. Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.
September 25, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.
September 29, 2024.
Middle Eastern War
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
October 1, 2024.
Middle Eastern War
Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.
cont:
Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.
October 6, 2024.
Middle Eastern War
Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.
It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.
October 8, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.
Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.
October 21, 2024.
Middle Eastern War
Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.
October 22, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Where the money is:
https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750
October 23, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.
Russo Ukrainian War
North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.
October 23, 2024
Middle Eastern War
Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.
Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.
cont:
The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.
The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries. It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.
October 28, 2024
Russia
Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova
October 31, 2024
The war on ISIL
The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.
November 4, 2024
Russia v. The West
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Wall Street Journal.
November 9, 2024
Iran v. the West.
Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI. The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.
November 18, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War.
The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.
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November 20, 2024
Russia and China v. The West
The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..
November 21, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.
November 23, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.
A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.
November 26, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.
It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.
NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:
Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine
November 28, 2024
Middle Eastern War
A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah. This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.
It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah. This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.
December 2, 2024
Syrian Civil War
A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days. In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.
This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.
Related threads:
The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.
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