Showing posts with label Central America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central America. Show all posts

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina

 

An earlier humanitarian crisis.

May 12, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

Not in the category of war, but sort of an invasion, Title 42 expired last night and a flood of asylum seekers and others are anticipated to cross the border.

This is a crisis for the US that cannot be ignored.  It is effectively an invasion of sorts, which if not addressed will have dire humanitarian and economic consequences in the United States and imperil the US's already frankly teetering democracy.  Failing to come up with something has already created a dire humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico, which has, under its new leadership, lost patience with the United States.  Some recent polls suggest that a majority of Texans wish to leave the union, with this being among the major causes.  The migrant flood has already effectively destroyed aspects of civil life in cities along the border.

Prior to the 1970s, the United States would have intervened militarily in the failed states which are the home countries of the flood of desperate humanity.  We no longer do such things, but this does bring up grave moral issues, among them being the toleration of pretending that the source countries have effective governments while their populations remove themselves for the American border.  In the name of being a peaceable better neighbor, we've allowed countries to descend into chaos, and yet in this day and age gunboat diplomacy is presumably unthinkable.

What's to be done?

Whatever that is, there's little confidence in the current administration's ability to effectively do it, and the Republican Party is using the crisis to make political hay.  Dithering, however, is contributing to it.  Immediate action on the crisis is required, and a major reform of the US's already then naive circa 1970s immigration laws needs to take place.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy announced yesterday that Ukraine has delayed its Spring offensive due to a lack of ammunition.

A leader making such an announcement is phenomenal, and partially for that reason, there's reason to wonder about the statement.  Still, it's been remarkable how little has occurred since the muddy seasons, presumably, has ended.

Added to that, quite frankly, if this is true, it causes grave reasons for concern.

The United Kingdom has supplied new long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines at Bakhmut.

The Russians have seized the Cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol, an area that they occupy.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

I split out the entry on this to a separate item, which I'll refer to here.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a technological game of chess, the Russians attempted to destroy a Patriot missile battery only to have the Patriots shoot the hypersonic missiles.

Now we know that Patriots can do that.

May 13, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy is in Rome.  He's met with the Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and is now meeting with the Pope.

May 14, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarusian President Lukashenko is gravely ill.

What happens in regard to his country's position on the conflict, should he die, is a wildcard.

For the first time in the war, four Russian aircraft, two jets and two helicopters were shot down inside of Russia itself.

May 15, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

So far, migrant crossings into the US have actually dropped.

The lapse of Title 42 was a topic on the weekend shows.  Of interest, the Democratic responses is always, basically, how to amend the law to make the process of taking in a flood of people more orderly, not addressing if the flood needs to be stemmed or stopped.

Russo Ukrainian War

On the weekend shows, there was much discussion of Trump's refusal to take a stand over supporting Ukraine in the war.

Are we surprised?  Trump has always had some sort of weird relationship with Putin.

May 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion which surrendered in Mariupol last Spring were betrayed by a logistical officer who was cooperating with the Russians, effectively tricking them into surrendering, according to a Ukrainian investigation.

Regarding this sort of activity:

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15 that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions. GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with Prigozhin.[2]

May 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The United States, Portugal and Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

Counteroffensive?  Still no signs of one.

May 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are claiming to have taken Bakhmut, although it remains unclear if they have.  ISW regards the capture, if it occurred, as tactically insignificant.

Zelenskyy is at the G7 seeking ongoing support for Ukraine.

Italy may also start training Ukrainian pilots.

Mexican Border Crisis\

Mexico, also plagued by the immigration crisis, is flying migrants south, away from the US border, and bussing migrants away from the Guatemalan border.

Camps that are some distance north of the southern Mexican border predominately house Haitian migrants.

Sudanese Civil War

The fighting factions of the Sudanese military agreed to a seven-day cease fire.  The US and Saudi Arabia brokered the hiatus in fighting.

May 22, 2023

Papua New Guinea/United States

Papua New Guinea and the US will sign a defense pact aimed at countering China.

May 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Anti Putin Russians fighting with Ukraine entered Belgorod Oblast.  The Russians are complaining about it, but why, after invading Ukraine, they'd be upset by having Ukrainian allied forces invade them, is hard to fathom.

The incursion, which has only crossed a limited area of the border, has seen the forces which engaged in it dig in.

Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, after having taken it, in order to turn it over to the Russian Army.  Apparently they intend to refit elsewhere.  Ukrainian forces have advanced around the city to some extent.

May 28, 2023

Iran & Afghanistan

Iran and Taliban forces exchanged gun fire on their border in a fight that is over water rights.

May 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Moscow was hit by drones yesterday.  Ukraine has denied involvement.

The Russians hit Ukraine with missile and drone attacks every day.  Their frequency is why we don't report them here.

May 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine hit a Russian refinery on the Black Sea today with drones.

June 1, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's last remaining warship yesterday.

June 4, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to launch its counteroffensive.

Declaring something like that is quite odd, so its hard to know what to make of it.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя


Related threads:


Saturday, May 13, 2023

Crisis on the border. Roots, origins, angst, and what is to be done.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

Those seeking asylum, FWIW, are required to have first applied in the countries from which they are departing, or online, or if they traveled through another country or countries, those places.  The problem remains of dealing with the requests of those who are allowed in.

Most of the migrants are fleeing economic distress or violence in their homelands, the product of a wide-ranging number of things, and which varies by countries.  Haiti, for example, remains impoverished as a legacy of paying its original French slaveholders upon achieving independence long ago.  Almost all of the Central American and South American states contributing to the human flood also suffer from the legacy of Spanish Colonialism, which saw its original liberators largely act in the name of their own self-interest rather than that of the native populations.  Stable Central American states, looked at with a long lens, have a single stable government example, which also contributes to the flood due to being in an unstable neighborhood.  The existence of multiple Central American states in the first place is nonsensical and is a symptom of failed policies itself. They should really all be part of Mexico, which in fact was at least partially the plan early on.  Repeated efforts to reunite into one state have failed, leaving tiny rump states that have been corruptly ruled and which have fallen into the control of criminal gangs, something the US's unending appetite for illegal drugs, a symptom of its own failed American Dream, fuels.

Marines in Nicaragua, 1932.

Central Americans have lived in fear of US intervention for decades, although that seems to have ceased, as has U.S. intervention.  Unfortunately, the region is terribly governed, with Socialist ineptitude governing in some places (Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela), to simply featuring failed states in others.  The US has repeatedly tried a "good neighbor" policy of non-intervention, and it retains guilt over supposed "American colonialism"  for intervention.  The US last put troops on the ground in Panama when it deposed the Panamanian leader during the Reagan Administration and then went right on to invade Grenada.

The problem remains that the neighbor analogy may be too appropriate.  It might be neighborly to ignore your neighbor's dissolute living for a while, but when it turns violent, do you?

It's clear something has to be done to address the root problems of what's being seen. But what is that?

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Wednesday, February 7, 1923. The General Treaty of Peace and Amity

The General Treaty of Peace and Amity was signed in Washington D.C. between Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. 

It provided:

Article I

The governments of the high contracting parties shall not recognize any other governments which may come into power in any of the five Republics as a consequence of a coup d'état, or of a revolution against the recognized government, so long as the freely elected representatives of the people thereof, have not constitutionally reorganized the country.[4]

Article II

Desiring to make secure in the Republics of Central America the benefits which are derived from the maintenance of free institutions and to contribute at the same time toward strengthening their stability and the prestige with which they should be surrounded, they declare that every act, disposition or measure which alters the constitutional organization in any of them is to be deemed a menace to the peace of said Republics, whether it proceeded from any public power of from the private citizens.

Consequently, the governments of the contracting parties will not recognize any other governments which may come into power in any of the five Republics through a coup d'état or a revolution against a recognized government, so long as the freely elected representatives of the people thereof, have not constitutionally reorganized the country. And even in such a case they obligate themselves not to acknowledge the recognition of any of the persons elected as President, Vice President or Chief of State designate should fall under any of the following heads:

(1) If he should be the leader or one of the leaders of a coup d'état or revolution, or through blood relationship or marriage, be an ascendent or descendant or brother of such leader or leaders.

(2) If he should have been a Secretary of State or should have held some high military command during the accomplishment of the coup d'état, the revolution, or while the election was being carried on, or if he should have held this office or command within the six months proceeding the coup d'état, revolution, or the election.

Furthermore, in no case shall recognition be accorded to a government which arises from election to power of a citizen expressly and unquestionably disqualified by the Constitution of his country as eligible to election as President, Vice President or State designate.

Honduras and El Salvador did not ratify it, and Costa Rica violated it in 1931 after it recognized the overthrow of the El Salvadoran government.  In 1934 the Central American Court of Justice held it to be illegal.

Friday, December 30, 2022

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Nine. Rout

Ukrainian Christmas stamp.

November 11, 2022.

As amazing as it is to think it, it's actually the case.  Russia is being routed in Ukraine.

But maybe it's not really that amazing, except for one thing.  We'll get to that.

The last war I can think of, offhand, in which Russian forces performed really well was during the 1812+ stage of the Napoleonic Wars, keeping in mind that I'm very ignorant on the Crimean War.

That's 210 years ago.

The Imperial Russian Army preformed badly during the Russo Japanese War.  It had mixed performance during World War One, but in the end, the Germans defeated Russia.

Sure, the Red Army won in the Russian Civil War, but any army performs well in a civil war, if its truly fought out, as the other army is also made up of people with the same training or lack thereof.

It lost to the Pole is the Russo Polish War that followed the Civil War.

And tiny Finland fought it to a standstill in the Winter War.

Then there's World War Two.

Now, let's given credit where credit is due. The Russian Army killed more Germans than any other army in the field. . . and the Germans killed a lot of Russians too.

Indeed, with a massive numerical advantage it didn't really manage to get its act together until Fall, 1942, for the most part, although there are real and notable exceptions.

One of the things that those real and notable exceptions tell us, like it or not, is that Stalin did a pretty good job of reforming an army he'd destroyed in the 30s and giving it 11th hour backbone.

After the Fall of 1942, while it hemorrhaged deserters like sand in the hand, it preformed well, even though it preformed well as an armed mob.

But since then? What has it done well, really?

Hmmm. . . 

Afghanistan? 

Well, it lost.

Syria?

The Newark New Jersey police department could probably turn in a real performance there and look impressive.

Under trained troops, bad equipment, no doctrinal flexibility.  These are Russian things.

And the Ukrainian Army, having been reformed since 2014, is a Western Army.  It's more like the Army of Poland or even West Germany than Russia, now.

Ukraine has taken back its territory west of the Dnipr.

By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

Slava Ukraine.

November 15, 2022

U.S. intelligence indicates that Putin may have delayed the Russian withdrawal from Kherson in order to attempt to preclude it from being viewed as a Biden victory.

If so, it's an interesting example of how Russia regards American domestic politics.

Today, Russia mounted a massive rocket attack on Ukraine, sending two missiles into Poland, where they killed two.

November 16, 2022

President Zelenskyy addressed the G20 and gave a 10 point peace plan which included a Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory.  It can safely be assumed that Russia will reject this.

The missile that went down in Poland now appears to have been an errant Ukrainian one.

November 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Col. Vadim Boyko, a Russian army officer who was head of a military academy and involved in Putin's conscription attempt, has reportedly committed suicide, although reports also hold he was found with five shots in his chest.

Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles again yesterday.

North Korea

The BBC reports:

North Korea has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to hit the US mainland, Japan's defence minister says.

The West in general and the US in particular has dinked around with North Korea so long while it worked on this project that the result is that the American population is now vulnerable to an ICBM strike by North Korea. There's no doubt that North Korea will attempt to leverage this against the US.

No US President has been effective in dealing with the Communist Stalinist Theme Park under its current leadership.  As a result, a real question has now developed on what the US can and should do to protect its interests before North Korea is fully nuclear capable.

November 20, 2022

North Korea.

North Korea's dictator/monarch was photographed showing his ICBM's to his 14-year-old daughter this week, thereby actually confirming her existence.

The United States and South Korea have been conducting practice aerial missions.  I'd frankly regard a U.S. airstrike at this point on North Korea's nuclear capacity as not unlikely, although less than 50%.

November 23, 2022

North Korea.

Kim Yo Jong stated that the United States would face “a more fatal security crisis” if it presses forward with its plan to seek condemnation of North Korea's missile behavior in the UN Security Council.

This is a clear threat of violence of some sort.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian security forces raid the Pechersk Lavra Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv on the basis that it feared the monastery might be used for sabotage.

This points out the complicated nature of the relationship between the three branches of Apostolic Christianity in Ukraine. Before the war commenced, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which had been a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, sought and received autocephalous status from the Greek Metropolitan of Constantinople.  This was condemned by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is the largest branch of Eastern Orthodoxy, and a schism developed.  Some of the Ukrainian Orthodox did not go along with the separation and remained subject to the Metropolitan of Moscow.

The other branch is the Eastern Rite Ukrainian Catholic Church, which is in communion with Rome.

The invasion of Ukraine was justified by Putin in part as being in defense of Orthodoxy. Russia under Putin has been highly resistant to social trends in the West and in part this is scene as an aspect of this topic.

November 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russia has been concentrating on destroying infrastructure targets, energy generation in particular, the last several days.  The attacks have been massive in extent and appear to be motivated by the same mistaken reasoning that was behind the Blitz by the Luftwaffe and the Allied strategic bombing campaign of World War Two, that such efforts destroy civilian will to fight.

Iranian Insurrection

Protests have spread to the point where Iran is now regarded to be in a state of pre insurrection and the government is having to deploy armed forces in an attempt to address it.

December 4, 2022

El Salvador/Central American Criminal Crisis

The government of El Salvador deployed a huge number of troops and paramilitary police to enter a gang controlled area near the capitol yesterday.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian Army has crossed the Dnipro.

December 5, 2022

Two Russian air force bombers were destroyed by an explosion on the runway at Engels Air Force Base, which is deep inside of Russia.  Explosions also happened at a Russian Air Force base at Saratov.

Speculation is widespread that these are a deep Ukrainian drone strike.  Both locations are near each other, and they have been used for strikes on Ukraine.  They are near Saratov on the Volga.

December 6, 2022

Russia continues to engage in massive missile strikes on Ukraine, but for the second day in a row Ukraine has hit back with a drone strike on an airfield, this time upon Kursk.\

These strikes contrast with each other in that the Russian strikes are against civil targets, while the Ukrainian ones are on Russian air assets.  Russian behavior is making it easier for Ukraine to hit targets inside of Russia without Western protests, and the Russians seem to be baffled as to how this occurs.  News about the strikes has come from Russian media, with the Russians seemingly being stunned that it's occurring.

What is not clear is the extent to which Ukraine can continue this, and whether these raids are essentially experimental.  If Ukraine can manufacture these long range drones in sufficient numbers, Russian air assets will have to be pulled back to more distant bases and logistical stockpiles in Russia will become endangered.

December 22, 2022

100,400 Russian soldiers have died in the war.

That figure is roughly twice the number of Americans who died in the very long Vietnam War, the last major war fought by the United States (yes, there have been wars since then, but not on that scale).  Added to that, in 1973 when that war ended for the US, it's population exceeded that of Russia's now.

15,000 Russians died in Afghanistan.

President Zelensky spoke personally to Congress this week.

December 26, 2022

Putin suggested he's ready for talks, while blaming the lack of talks on everyone else.

He's also hinted that the property of Russian oligarchs who are not supporting the war may be confiscated.

Russian assaults, which are not achieving much, remain unabated

FWIW, Christmas, on the Orthodox calendar, is January 7, 2023, on its liturgical calendar.  While I wouldn't put too much stock in it, if there'd be a calendar based timing for some sort of dramatic peace related event coming from the Russians, and I'm not saying that there is, that'd be a good date for it.

December 27, 2022

President Zelenskyy has indicated that he's relying on India to advance a peace proposal to Russia.

In spite of news of peace talks being a possibility appearing in the Western press, it's highly doubtful that any peace negotiations will start any time soon.

December 27, cont.

Russia today issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to accept Russian terms or the Russian army will settle the issue, according to Russia.

This would seem to suggest that Russia is on the verge of launching a new offensive and presumably it has some confidence that this one will be successful, something of which there is no guaranty.

December 29, 2022

Alexei Maslov, a senior Russian Army armor officer who had fallen under criticism, has been reported dead within a day of a meeting with Putin being cancelled.

Pavel Antov, age 69, a Russian sausage tycoon, fell to his death at an Indian hotel.  His friend, Vladimir Budanov, died at the same hotel four days prior.

An unusual number of oligarchs and Russian figures of note have died since the war started. Antov adds to the list, since the war commenced, that includes the following:

Leonid Shulma, age 60, by suicide. Igor Nosov, age 43, stroke.  Alexander Tyulakov age 61, suicide. Mikhail Watford age 66.  Vasily Melnikov age 43 Wife and two sons found dead beside him. Vladislav Avayevage 51. Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him Sergey Protosenya age 55, Hanged from a handrail, wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds. Andrei Krukovsky age 33.  Fell from cliff. Alexander Subbotin age 31.  Drug induced heart attack. Yuri Voronov age 61. Gunshot wounds to the head, pistol found next to his body.  Dan Rapoport age 52.  Fall. Ravil Maganov age 67. Fell out of a hospital window.  Ivan Pechorin age 39. Fell off boat and drowned. Vladimir Sungorkin age 68. Stroke. Anatoly Gerashchenko age 72.  Fall. Pavel Pchelnikov age 52. Suicide. Vyacheslav Taran age 53 Helicopter crash. Grigory Kochenov age 41.  Fall from balcony during police search of apartment. Dmitriy Zelenov age 50.  Injuries sustained in fall.

That's rather odd.

December 30, 2022

United States v. ISIL

The US announced it has killed about 700 ISIL operatives over the past year, with this taking place in Syria and Iraq.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia continues its massive missle campaign against Ukrainian infrastruture, clearly intending to completely destroy it.

Last prior Edition.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.


Recent Related Threads:

The Man of the Year.

Whether the battle for Ukraine fills one with hope or with fear, Volodymyr Zelensky galvanized the world in a way we haven’t seen in decades.

Time magazine, on their choice to make Volodymyr Zelensky their Man of the Year.

I had no doubt he would be.

Odd to live in a year in which some in far off lands rose so bravely to the occasion, while others closer to home failed so greatly to live up to obvious standards.

What is wrong with the Putin supporting right?



Saturday, October 30, 2021

Sunday October 30, 1921. Failed union.

Evelyn Nesbit standing beside two women in her tearoom, New York City.  This photo was likely published on this day, rather than taken on this day. Nesbit had been a famous actress and model who had been associated with sensational news.  At this point, she was temporarily outside of the entertainment industry.

On this day in 1921, voting took place in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, to elect a congress for the newly created, but not yet functioning, and in fact never to function, Federation of Central America. The Congress was to take office on January 15, 2022.

It nearly goes without saying that if this union of Central American states had succeeded, the region would be much better off today.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Monday, October 10, 1921. Putative Beginnings

On this day in 1921the Federation of Central America, made up of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, came into existence. Tegucigalpa was the capital.  The treaty creating the union provided only for provisional delegates to its parliament, so in reality it never took off.

There have been numerous efforts to create such a union, following the end of Mexican claims to the region in the 19th Century. All have unfortunately failed, which has been a major contributor to the agony of the region in the 20th and 21st Centuries.

On states that failed, the Kingdom of Kurdistan was proclaimed on this day in 1921.


Encompassing a fairly small area of the region inhabited by the Kurds, all of which was within Iraq, the British put the putative kingdom down in 1924, and it was incorporated back into the British mandate in Mesopotamia in 1926 by the League of Nations.

Here too, if the state had been allowed to exist, much of modern history in the region would have been different, and potentially better.

The Yankees won game 5 of the 1921 World Series, regaining the lead from the Giants. The score was 3 to 1.

In other sports, a photographer caught a group of Army officers playing polo at Camp Grant., Illinois.

Polo, Camp Grant, October 10, 1921

Polo had become a big Army sport in the early 20th Century, and the interwar years were really its high water mark. During that period it was widely participated in and encouraged by the Army.  Polo became common not only in the Regular Army, but in the National Guard.
 

Hines was back at work photographing Appalachia, including the members of an African American 4H Club..

Miners cabins on the Elk River at Bream, W. Va. near Charleston. Others on slope beyond. A typical mining community here. Children go to Big Chimney school. Oct. 10, 1921. Location: Bream, West Virginia








Former 4H members who were attending an African American agricultural college in West Virginia.

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Lex Anteinternet: The Central American Mess and Citations to the Statue of Liberty. Nobody is going to do anything, probably.

So here, two and a half years later, this thread is once again so relevant I thought about reposting it:
Lex Anteinternet: The Central American Mess and Citations to the Sta...: The Statue of Liberty from a distance view, the way its likely often seen by people who live in the neighborhood. Somewhere on this b...

Rather than that, I'm just linking into it.

One comment, however. The common current claims that "immigration reform" will somehow address this are at a bare minimum, incomplete.  What would address this is the creation of a stable Central American political culture and viable economy.   Both can be done.  It'd be easier to do, however, if these states weren't all so tiny, which brings up the point once again that a Central American tragedy is the failure of these regions to unite, which they're repeatedly attempted, or the failure of Mexico to have retained them.

What is clear is that the longer this goes on, the more tragic it becomes, and the more its depressive impact on the United States will become inevitable.  The Obama Administration failed to successfully deal with it, the Trump Administration was more successful but obviously didn't solve it, and the onset of the Biden Administration has revived it.  It's Biden's problem now.  Solve it, or at least getting it somewhat addressed, would be a political coup for him. Failure to do so will be a Republican issue in 2022 and 2024.

Thursday, May 7, 2020

The Reassessors. Smedly Butler


He entered the Marine Corps in 1898 and served until 1931, and saw action all over the world.  He is one of the most decorated Marines in history, having won the Congressional Medal of Honor twice.

After his retirement the disillusioned Butler wrote a book called War Is A Racket.  His views might be summarized by the following quote.
I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer; a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902–1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

The Central American Mess and Citations to the Statue of Liberty. Nobody is going to do anything, probably.

The Statue of Liberty from a distance view, the way its likely often seen by people who live in the neighborhood.

Somewhere on this blog I have some posts about arguments you shouldn't make. That is, things that when you hear them, you ought to just quit listening as the argument has become a cliche of a cliche ("think of the children" is one such example, although I still haven't posted that example, which remains in draft).

One of the things I should include in that list would be citations to the poem The New Colossus and references to the Statue of Liberty in general.  Indeed, I've made that argument here before.  But sure enough, any time a debate on immigration comes up, somebody will drag out The New Colossus as if its a foundational document for the country.  It isn't.  It's just bad poetry.

Frankly, I'm not all that super wild about the Statue of Liberty either, although I will credit it a great deal more.  Our copy of the statue is version 2.0, a prior smaller one having existed in France, where its designers lived.  It's a fairly typical French statue of the period, which tended to feature women with very muscular features (as in the French Railway Workers Memorial post the other day).  I'm not exactly sure what was up with that, but it was quite common at the time.  The Statue of Liberty is actually one of the better examples of such statues and it is attractive, which doesn't make it over all absolutely great art, save for its gigantic size.


Anyhow, any time the question of immigration comes up, if the suggestion is anything other than just open the borders up in a country that has the most open borders on the planet, somebody will drag out the Statue of Liberty and the poem and post it as an argument.  I just saw the first one regarding the refugees from Central America in the paper this morning in the form, predictably, of a political cartoon in which the statue wonders if she should go back to France (which is a totally absurd argument given that the annual immigration rate into Europe is minuscule as a rule compared to the United States.)

This symbolizes a lot of the American problem with fixing immigration in the country, and it desperately needs to be fixed.  The current system, a byproduct of the mushy thinking of Senator Edward Kennedy, amplified by the destruction of internal immigration law enforcement in the 1970s, assumes that the United States is physically growing like a cancer cell and that its impossible to reach the point where the population of the country, mostly growing due to immigration, is harming the country as a whole both economically and environmentally  It's likely that we achieved that point quite some time ago, perhaps in the 1970s itself.

Which makes most of the arguments about immigration complete and unadulterated baloney.  Large immigration rates like we have are not necessary to sustain the economy in any fashion whatsoever, which is the the prime intellectual argument on their behalf.  It only serves to depress wages in a country in which the lower middle class is already having a very hard time.  In an era in which computerization is wiping out jobs, and in which General Motors just announced its taking out 14,000 jobs in manufacturing, importing no skilled labor is really detrimental to the lower middle class laboring demographic, let alone American born urban minorities, whom it directly impacts.  Indeed, ironically, at one time the leadership of the largely Hispanic United Farm Workers was actually violently opposed to illegal immigration for that very reason, and it could hardly have been regarded as a right wing organization.

What importing no skill labor does do is to create a pool of very low wage labor at the bottom end which is great for the upper middle class and the wealthy and it makes for low class domestic servant labor.

It's also okay, but not really great, for the immigrants who come in, in that class, which is why their plight can't be ignored and they can't be disregarded.  But simply citing a poem as policy is, frankly, stupid.

Immigration at the current rate, we should note, is also fueling, although only in part, the ongoing mass urbanization that chews up American rural areas daily, which is arguably an environmental disaster (again, that's only part of the explanation and in fact probably not the primary one. . . most immigrants don't live in those places and could hardly ever afford to).  And then there's the argument that "we're a nation of immigrants", which is a sort of race based argument taking the position, more or less, that the original native population doesn't really county (they were here, they weren't immigrants) and which isn't an argument anyhow rather than a statement.  A better argument related to that is that our diversity gives us strength, which likely is true, up to a point, but which doesn't actually counter the problems which immigration at our current levels create.

Which takes us to the current flood of Central American refugees trying to get into the United States, the members of the recent caravan being only part of a movement that commenced some time last year.

Refugees are a different deal entirely, and perhaps citation to the "Give me your tired" and all makes sense there.  I've posted along those lines here as well.  All peoples and nations have a duty to refugees no matter where they are from.

But what if you can solve the root problem causing the refugee crisis?

I.e., what if the United States, or a combination of nations including the United States, can solve the problem?

Something is clearly going on in Central America causing people to flee there, but what?  What's motivating this?

What's going on in Central America is what is always going on in Central America, but at epic levels.  

Anarchy is going on in Central America. . . or at least a lot of it.

Occasionally Naive Reddit Rubes will wax philosophic on Reddit's various economic forums about how anarchy would be nifty.  If you think so, just move to Honduras.  They have it.

Flag of the Federated Republic of Central America.  A Central American republic that existed in 1821, and then again from 1823 to 1840. There's been efforts to put it back together ever since.  From Wikipedia Commons, by grant of Huhsunqu.

To some degree, they always have, and all the things that flow from anarchy, including massive corruption, crime and violence.

The flag of Honduras.  Honduras became independent, in a sense, in 1821 when it became independent from Spain as part of the first federated Central American state.  Almost immediately after that, however, it became First Mexican Empire.  In 1823 it became independent of Mexico and part of the new United Provinces of Central America, a democratic federated Central American state.  That state repeatedly failed and Honduras carried on as an independent nation, but sadly it was one of the Central American countries that was most in favor of a single Central American nation, something that would have gone a long ways toward preventing the current crisis and much of the regions tragic history from occurring.  The United States intervened in Honduras militarily in 1903, 1907, 1911, 1912, 1919, 1924 and 1925.

Things are so bad in Honduras, which underwent a coup in 2009 and then reemerged as a democracy about a year later, that even Dunkin' Donuts have armed security guards.  The majority of the current emigrants are from Honduras, and have traveled through helpless Guatemala and into Mexico (which resisted it at its southern border, something that's been largely missed in the news).  Things are otherwise not perfect in the neighborhood either.  El Salvador has become enormously lawless.  Nicaragua has gone form being a major tourist destination from being in crisis in just a year, following the removal of economic supports from Venezuela, which is also a mess.  Honduras, Guatemala (which is doing much better) and Nicaragua together are in a titanic economic and social mess or have the potential to be.  Only Costa Rica and Belize seem to be doing well.

Guatemala's flag, noting its 1821 independence date from Spain.  Guatemala's Independence came within the United Provinces of Central America, not as an independent nation.  The United States overthrew a left leaning democratic governing in the late 1950s (an earlier plan to do that in the early 50s was aborted when details started to leak) and the country fought a bitter civil war that came to an end in 1996.  Since then the Catholic Church provided enormous assistance in providing a means by which the country could overcome its violent past, something that's generally not appreciated by Protestant missionary groups that oddly regard the region as missionary territory.  The country has been doing well and recovering overall but at the current time it cannot help but be stressed by the massive human influx from Honduras.

They do have governments, to be sure, but those governments are not wholly admirable and the entire region has become embroiled in what is essentially a series of gang wars as the economy collapses. That's why people are leaving.  Entire regions are now controlled by criminal gangs and the governments, which in many instances in the past have been pretty criminal in and of themselves (I'm not familiar with any of the current governments).

The blue and white flag of El Salvador. . .notice the theme here?  Like Mexico, El Salvador went into rebellion when a Catholic Priest made a cry for justice and the same, in its case in 1811.  A revolution ensued.  It too was a province of the original Central American state which could not stay together.  Very densely populated, the country fought a war with its former co-province Honduras in 1969.  The country itself went into a civil war in 1979 that lasted until 1992, with the United States backing the right wing side and the left wing forces, including the Soviet Union and Cuba, backing the left wing side in one of the Cold War's proxy wars.

And that makes their plight genuine.

Nicaragua's flag, which is nearly indistinguishable from El Salvador's.

But nobody seems to be taking the root problem into account.

Unless the United States and Mexico are willing to absorb the entire population of Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador, a solution needs to be found what is going on.  And the agonizing truth of the matter is that the solution isn't going to come from inside any of those countries, or at least it appears unlikely that it will.  It's going to have to be imposed on them, or at least that can be argued for Honduras.  And they'll resist it, most likely.  And not without justification.

Indeed, we've had similar examples from Africa in the past couple of decades, and there have been local solutions that have worked.  They all principally involved an armed invasion by an upset neighbor.

And there you have it. The problem, the solution, and whether the solution is a problem itself.

At one time, what is going on inside of these countries, would have been solved by now.   Theodore Roosevelt would have solved it.  William Howard Taft would have solved it. Woodrow Wilson would have solved it.  Do we dare solve it in that fashion, and should we?  Would it be moral to?



Indeed, we're getting an ironic lesson, for which we do not appreciate the irony, and for which we aren't paying much attention, on why an entire series of Presidents didn't think twice about interfering in the affairs of Central American states and toppling their government.

Which may be both a theoretical solution today, as much as we hate to admit it, but which is also part of the root of the problem on what's going on today.

Today's crisis is partially a byproduct of our own actions, dating back to the 1950s, when we started heavily interfering in these nations in a Cold War context.  No, that's only partially true. . .their governments at the time and the forces inside those countries also reflected reaction and counteraction to actions we'd taken dating back to about 1900 or so. Well even that isn't right, as the entire region had an odd and chaotic 19th Century history.  But the Cold War interference was major and has cast a very long shadow.  We propped up a military government in El Salvador that prompted a left wing insurrection.  We did the same in Nicaragua with worse results which resulted in that country falling to a left wing government which turned out to be less left wing than we supposed but which is still in power and not completely democratic. That conflict helped spread another one into southern Mexico.  We overthrew the government of Guatemala. Our gunboat diplomacy evolved into CIA diplomacy, and now neglect is letting the boils that developed at that time really fester.  The whole region, save for Costa Rica, Belize and Panama, is a mess.

And its a mess that those countries probably can't fix themselves.

Of course, not only can they not fix them, those countries really shouldn't exist.  Frankly, they're too plagued with internal problems and too small to be able to address them. A federated state comprised of all of them, and probably Panama, would make more sense and be more stable but that's not going to happen.  Indeed, in a different context, it would have been easy to imagine the enter Central American region outside of Panama (which the U.S. created by backing a regional uprising against Columbia) being part of Mexico, given that it differs little culturally from southern Mexico.  Mexico, no doubt, is highly relieved that this never came about, but it shows the degree to which Mexico lacked territorial ambition as the United States, had it been in Mexico's geographic position, would undoubtedly have adsorbed the entire region.

But all of that could have occurred, and indeed darned near did.  In fact, it briefly did. . . more than once.

Emperer Augustin I, formerly Gen. Augustin Itubide, the first Emperor of Mexico.  When Mexico became an independent state those who brought that about weren't necessarily looking for a liberal democracy by any means.  In fact, while the revolution was initiated by a liberal Catholic Priest, it was taken up by Mexican Spanish aristocracy who didn't have a problem with aristocracy. . . just aristocracy in Spain.  Iturbe was from a Basque aristocratic family and have lived an aristocratic life.  He initially fought for the crown and against the Mexican rebels until switching sides.  He was actually a fairly popular emperor but the country was divided from the start and he served only briefly before going into exile, first in Italy and then in England.  He'd return later to Mexico where he was executed under dubious circumstances.  His last words were "Mexicans! In the very act of my death, I recommend to you the love to the fatherland, and the observance to our religion, for it shall lead you to glory. I die having come here to help you, and I die merrily, for I die amongst you. I die with honor, not as a traitor; I do not leave this stain on my children and my legacy. I am not a traitor, no."  He's interned in a cathedral in Mexico City.

Most of Central America became independent of Spain in 1821.  Interestingly, most of it became independent by default when Mexico obtained its independence.  With the exception of El Salvador, Central American countries did not rise up against the Spanish Empire. El Salvador did in 1811, however, the year after Mexico did, and by way of the same initiating source, the cry to rebellion by a Catholic Priest. The rest of the region found itself independent, however, in 1821 when Mexico was released by Spain.

The flat of the Mexican Empire, the nation that obtained independence from Spain, and which collapsed in 1823.

When that occurred, interestingly enough, two of the forces noted above in fact occurred.  There was a movement to form an independent confederation, but at first the region became a province of the Mexican Empire. The Mexican Empire, however, was itself short lived and collapsed under widespread opposition in 1823, at which time the Central American provinces formed their own country, the Federal Republic of Central America.  The country even expanded up into what today is the Mexican state of Chiapas.  Only Panama, which was part of Columbia, was not part of it.

Had the Central American Republic persisted, much would be different about the region today.  It only held together, however, until 1840 when it fell apart in civil war. All of the modern nations of Central America that were in it use a flag that's based on the one the Central American Republic had, and some of them use a national crest that's based upon it.  Even though the state fell apart, in some ways it was never forgotten and there were real efforts to recreate it, sometimes by force.  In 1907 all of its former regions, except for Belize, joined together in a political agreement to integrate their economies in a manner that all but contemplated future union. The agreement remains in force, but union has not been achieved.  In 1921 all of the old participants except for Nicaragua and Belize signed a treaty of union but did not follow up on it, making the 1921 agreement moribund.

All of which shows that what I've noted here is not simply wild speculation.  The region was united as a province by Colonial Spain, achieved independence as a nation briefly, was absorbed by Mexico as a province, and then achieved statehood again before division drove the nations apart. Ever since then there's been efforts on their part to reunite, but they have not succeeded.

 The flag of Belize, a self governing English possession.  Belize was, early on, part of the Central American Republic but it quickly became a British possession in the wake of the republic's collapse.  The English have made efforts to make it an independent country but its' resisted.  Like much of Central America, Belize's economy has been dominated by foreign interests in its agriculture sector, in this case oddly enough in moder times by Coca Cola, but its developed a successful tourists sector and British political influence has lead to a stable political culture.

Had the Central American republic been able to hold together, it would still be a small nation, but it would be a bi-coastal nation with a somewhat diverse modern economy.  Indeed, if we somewhat assume that the rest of history played out as it did (not a safe assumption at all), it would be a nation today that would be surprisingly diverse in some ways.  Belize, which was part of it, fell into British rule almost as soon as the republic fell apart but today, in spite of having an economic monoculture like much of the various Central American states, has a stable economy and and a booming tourist trade, is surprisingly multicultural even including an Amish farming population.  Costa Rica is likewise booming due to the tourist trade and, for good or ill, has an increasingly large American ex-patriot population as well as a surprising number of citizens who immigrated from South America and Europe.

Costa Rica's flag.  Costa Rica's history in Central America has become unique as during the 20th Century, following upon the fall of a military dictatorship, it abolished its standing army. Thsi made the democratic regime highly stable and seemingly immune from American intervention in spite of its early democratic government being very left leaning.  Costa Rica's modern economy is dominated by the tourist industry.

Additionally, if the Central American Republic had managed to hold things together, it would have helped prevent the region from being sort of the "anti United States" in the Star Trek bizarro world way.  That is, almost everything that seemingly happened to make the US successful didn't happen in Central America.

 U.S. Marines in Nicaragua in 1926, displaying a captured Sandinista flag.  Nicaragua was occupied by the United States from 1913 to 1933.

Indeed, right from the outset, while the advantages  of union were obvious, as the region had been granted Independence due to the Mexican rebellion, rather than its own, there was no real unity in political views.  Now, that's the case with the early U.S. to a degree as well, but this was very much so for the small political class in Central America. As with Mexico, some of this class remained monarchist in view and had no real problem with their former Spanish rulers.  Others were radically republican in an era in which radical republicanism was spreading in Europe. . . after all, this was the era of Napoleon Bonaparte.  That basically doomed the republic and it frankly also made a mess of early Mexican history.  Liberals couldn't bet along with monarchists on anything, and the country simply fell apart. 

That early history carried on for decades and made political cohesion difficult in any of the individual states.  Moreover, it mean that the small states were always economically weak due to their economic monocultures and they were constant prey to foreign, i.e., European and American, economic and military intervention, the only often following the other.  That fact in turn further weakened them, and that all carried through well into the 20th Century.

All of which takes us back to the problem.  A person could argue that a regional or perhaps international mandate should be issued requiring states that aren't flying apart in the region to intervene and impose order.  That would amount to a type of invasion.  The type of invasion that the OAS has occasionally sanctioned in the past, and to which everyone has turned a blind eye, but nobody in the world would turn a blind eye to this.

 Panama's flat.  Panama was never part of the Central American Republic, it was part of Columbia until a U.S. sponsored rebellion separated it in 1903, although in fairness a long running war of rebellion had been trying to do the same for quite some time, and there had been prior efforts to do that as well.  While it doesn't share the history of the other Central American nations in once having been part of a unified nation, it would make sense that it would be, if one ever came together.

Nor perhaps should they.  These are all sovereign nations and while things seem to be flying apart now, they all made huge strides towards functioning democracy after the 1960s.  Even El Salvador, which fell in revolution to a government we thought was going to be a Communist one, didn't really take that turn and the Communists turned into liberal democrats, for the most part.

And would that type of intervention be even moral?  It's very doubtful.  Can in an international body suspend sovereignty in that fashion?  It could declare that it could, but that's problematic.  Of course, at some point governments can descend into such anarchy that they don't exist at all for a country in question, such as in the example of pre 9/11 Afghanistan.

Well, it's all academic. Nobody is going to do anything.  Instead we'll get trite arguments about the Statute of Liberty.