Showing posts with label Yeoman's Laws of History. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yeoman's Laws of History. Show all posts

Friday, January 4, 2019

Yeoman's Laws of History


Everyone is used to the concept that science and nature is governed by certain natural laws. For instance, Sir Isaac Newton discerned Newton's Laws of Motion.  Darwin gave discerned Natural Selection, and so on.

Well, it seems to me that history is governed by certain laws as well.  After long study of the topic, it seems that there are certain constants that repeat themselves again and again, and not just in the "history repeats itself" sense.  No, certain constants reoccur that are well worth noting. As the author, I'm claiming credit for their discovery, and setting them out here.  In future posts, I'll elaborate further on them.


Yeoman's First Law of History.  Everything first happened longer ago than you suspect.

It doesn't matter what the topic is, but the first occurrence of anything is always further back in time than originally thought.  This is why certain distant dates are continually pushed back, and will continue to be. So, take whatever you like, say the first use of the horse, or the first appearance of humans in North America, and you'll find the "first" date gets more and more distant in time.  Things that were thought to happen, say, 5,000 years ago, turn out to have happened 50,000 years ago, or 500,000 years ago, as we gain better data.

Yeoman's Second Law of History.  Everything last occurred more recently than you suppose.

Here too, it doesn't matter what the topic is, it happened much more recently than you think it did.  Almost everything and every behavior is really durable, if it had any purpose in the first place.

For example, last bayonet charge?  Are you thinking World War One?  Nope, the British did one in Iraq.  Small unit, but none the less they did it.  And in the Second Gulf War.  Last cavalry charge?  Civil War?  No again, they've happened as recently as the current war in Afghanistan.  Last use of horse mounted troops?  Well. . . we aren't there.  It's still going on.  We're never as far from what we think is the distant past as we imagine.

Yoeman's Third Law of History.  Culture is plastic, but sticky.

Eh?  What could that mean. Well, just this.  Cultures mold themselves over time, to fit certain circumstances and developments, but they really persevere in ways that we can hardly appreciate.

We like to believe, in the West, that all cultures are the same, but that is very far from true. And we also like to believe that they "modernize," by which we mean that they "westernize."  They can, but their basic roots do not go away, and they don't even really change without the application of pressure and heat.  Cultures, in that sense, are like metamorphic rocks.  It takes a lot of time, heat, and intense pressure to change them, and even then, you can tell what they started off as.

Examples?  Well, when I was a student in school it was often claimed by our teachers that citizens of the USSR liked their government, having known nothing else, and that everything of the old Russian culture was dead.  Man, that couldn't have been further from the truth. When the lid came off the USSR in 1990, all sorts of old cultural attributes of the various old peoples of the Russian Empire came roaring back. Cossacks remembered that they were Cossacks.  Lithuanians remembered they were Lithuanian. The Russian Orthodox Church experienced a spectacular revival.  Even protests in Russia remain uniquely, and strangely, old Russian.  Nothing had actually gone away.

This is true of all cultures. Even here in the US.  The old Puritans may be gone, but much of their views towards our natures and work very much remain.  Even when cultures take big vacations from themselves, they tend to find their way back over time, at that, and will surprisingly reemerge when thought long gone.

Yeoman's Fourth Law of History.  War changes everything

This is something that somehow is repeatedly forgotten by those who advocate wars.  I'm not a pacifist by any means, but it should be remembered that wars change absolutely everything, about everything.  No nation goes into a war and comes back out the same nation.  People's views about various things change radically due to war, entire economies are dramatically changed, and of course the people who fight the war are permanently changed.

We've discussed this here from time to time in regards to specific topics, but this law is so overarching that the impact of it can hardly be exaggerated.  Every time a nation enters a war, it proposes, in essence, to permanently alter everything about itself.

Yeoman's Fifth Law of History.  When a war ends is when the defending party decides that it is over.

When nations start a war, they have a "war aim."  But that aim rarely determines when a war ends.  Wars are over when the party that is attacked decides that the war is over.

The Germans, during World War Two, thought that the war in the West was over when they knocked France out of the war, but the British did not believe that, so it did not end. In the East, the Germans thought advancing to the Volga meant victory over the USSR.  The Soviets, however, had no such concept so the war went on.  Conversely, the Imperial Russians in World War One gave up long before they were really defeated.  They just gave up.  Wars end when the party that was attacked decides that they are over.

Yeoman's Sixth Law of History.  There was no age of innocence.

A persistent idea about any one violent era in history is that the era that preceded it was "an age of innocence", or that the violent historical event ended a country's "innocence."  Even really first rate historians will claim, in various works, that an era immediately before what they're writing about "ended the country's innocence.".

Well, while these events, particularly if they are wars, and that's usually what is being addressed in this context, may change everything (see Holscher's Fourth Law of History), the era before them is never an "age of innocence," as there never was such an age.  That's a nostalgic concept that does not fit reality.

For example, over time, I've read of World War Two, World War One, and the Civil War ending "America's innocence.".  Bunk.  None of those horrific events, and they were horrific, ended an age of innocence. They may have been titanic disasters, and horrors of the first rate, but they did not end ages of innocence.  By the time of the American Civil War the country had been through the Revolution, the War of 1812, the Mexican War and any number of horrific Indian Wars that made those that came after the Civil War look comparatively blood free.  And this doesn't even address the violence of slavery and sectarian strife that came before the Civil War.  And even if a person imagines that the country slipped into an age of innocence after the Civil War they'd be sadly mistaken. Prior to World War one came the economic panic of the 1890s, the Indians Wars (including such events as Little Big Horn and the Wounded Knee), the Spanish American War and the Philippine Insurrection.  Prior to World War Two, of course, we World War One and the Great Depression.

And the same is true for any other country a person could pick out.  The British, for example, had the Anglo Irish War before World War Two, the Boer War before World War One, and so on.

None of this is meant to be commentary on the big events mentioned. Rather, the frequent claims that a person reads some event unique exposed a country, for the first time, the the horrors the world has to offer, is simply wrong.

Posted December 28, 2012.

Yeoman's Seventh Law of History.  No accurate history can be written until 60 years have passed since the event.

A really thorough history of  an event cannot be written close in time to the event.  Indeed, several decades must pass from the event's occurrence before an accurate history can be written.

That may sound shocking (although at least historian Ladislas Farago noted this in the introduction to his early biography of George S. Patton; Patton:  Ordeal and  Triumph) but its true.  Close in time to an event, authors tend to be too much men of their own times with their views colored by the context of those times. Such influences tend to remain at least as long as twenty years after an event occurs.  Direct participants in an event have a stake in what occurred, which also tend to inform and color their views.

Beyond that, however, and very significantly, authors who write close in time to an event, including those who participated in it, tend to simply accept certain conditions as the norm, and therefore diminish their importance int their writings or omit them entirely.  Conversely, they tend to emphasize things that were new or novel, for the same reasons.  Given that, early written records tend to overplay the new and omit the routine, so that later readers assume the new was the normal and they don't even consider the routine.

Take for example the often written about story of the German army during World War Two.  Only more informed historians realize that most of the German army was no more mechanized during World War Two than it was during World War One.  Fewer yet realize that a fair number of German soldiers remained horse mounted during World War Two for one reason or another.  Period writers had little reason to emphasize this, however, as it really wasn't novel at all at the time, and not very dramatic either, and reflected similar conditions in many armies.

This doesn't mean that early works and first hand recollections aren't valuable.  Rather, it means that a person cannot base his final view on those early works, however.  It also provides the answer as to why later historical works on a frequently addressed topic are not only valuable, but necessary.  Rick Atkinson's and Max Hasting's recent works on World War Two, for example, really place the conflict in context in all sorts of ways for the very first time.  The plethora of new books on the First World War that were at first regarded as revisionist are in fact corrective, and likewise the war is coming into accurate focus for the first time.

Date added:  June 11, 2014.

Yeoman's Eighth Law of History:  Myths, unless purely fanciful, almost always have a basis in reality.

In cultures that write things down, the concept that myths, which were primarily related by word of mouth, have any basis in reality seems to come as a shock. But they normally do.

It is the spoken word that is the default means of transmitting information, including history, in human beings.  The written word is a learned behavior, indeed one that must not only be learned but nurtured in order to take root.   Even now, a lot of people will take and retain information better orally than in a written form.

But oral transmission is always subject to decay with the teller, and the tricks the mind uses to retain the story warp it a bit by default. But that doesn't mean that the stories were never true in any fashion.

All the time we find that historians and archeologist are surprised to learn that something thought to be a myth has some basis in reality.  Probably most do. Troy turns out to have been a real city (and the war was probably over the teenage wife of a teenage king, I'll bet), the Navajo and Apache turn out to be from the far north originally and so their memories of their being great white bears and great white birds are spot on.  Myths, even very old ones, if carefully discerned usually have some basis in fact.

Date added:  April 1, 2015

Yeoman's Ninth Law of History:  You don't know the "right" side of history, until its history.

Pundits and advocates are fond of saying that this or that is on the "right" side of history, by which they mean the side of any one issue that they feel, based on the feelings of the day, will surely prevail.  The trouble is, those feelings are just that.  You don't really know what will prevail, until Holscher's Seventh Law of History has had its day.

History is full of movements and issues that were on the "right" side of history, which turned  out not to be at all.  Prohibition was a hugely popular movement which newspapers everywhere supported while condemning its opponents as naive rubes but which, when it became the (at first) hugely popular law of the land in the United States, and elsewhere, lasted less than fifteen years.  During the 1920s and 1930s fascism was widely commented upon as being a movement which was so valid that it would replace democratic institutions everywhere and which should be supported where it had taken root, even in democratic countries.  Communism was lauded in the liberal left as the next step in liberal and progressive thought and widely held as an inevitable next step in history, a view which its own foundational documents held to be a scientific inevitability.  Even staunch anti-communists such as Whitaker Chambers publicly stated that it would win and even as late as the 1980s I myself had to read a book in college arguing that the entire world should be placed under a Communist government in order to avoid a surely inevitable nuclear war.

There are many other such examples.  The fact of the matter is however that many movement, trends, and instabilities don't survive the bright sun of reality which burns them away.  We don't really know what will survive that sun's glare until it does, by which time many of us who worried, endured or supported them will have passed onto history ourselves.

Date added:  January 4, 2019.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

Yeoman's Laws of Behavior

Having recently delved into laws of history; we now, without proper qualification or training, delve into sociology.  Well, maybe we actually do have the training, as law is a about analysis and observation, and the law is really just a set of rules.  At any rate, like with history, there are certain laws that govern human behavior.  In some ways, that's probably for the same reason. Certain things are part of our natures, like it or not, and they'll determine how we act, in spite of our best efforts.

The amusing, perhaps, thing about this is that this is so massively ignored, even by sociologists, and we often have a completely wrong idea about ourselves.  I suspect that's part of the reason that so many modern Americans are unhappy in some ways.  We've forced ourselves out of our individual natures.  We'll look at that as one of the laws below

Yeoman's First Law of Behavior.  You are going home again.


Thomas Wolfe is famously quoted as having written "You can't go home again.".  I believe that the more accurate quote is "You can't go home again, and stay there."  I'll be frank that I've never read Wolfe's work that this quote comes from, or much of Wolfe at all, so I can't really say how the quote should be taken in context.  The bad thing about pithy quotes is that it's very easy to do that, and loose the meaning that the author intended for it.

Be that as it may, the quote that people like to cite to here, in the context that the quoter makes of it, is completely in error.  Not only can you go home again, you are going to.  At least you're going home again in terms of your basic personality.

From long observation, I'm pretty convinced that everyone's basic personality is set by the time they're about five years old.  Likes, dislikes, intense interests, the whole smash, in some way, is there.  Kids who are outdoorsy at five will be outdoorsy as old men.  If a kid is fascinated with fishing at that age, he'll be fishing when he's 80.  A dedicated reader at five will be at fifty.  Nerdy at 5, nerdy at 95.  And so on.

This is a fact, I think, that's hardly appreciated, but it's there.  I've watched kids who loved one thing or another grow up and continue to love it.  I've also seen those same people suppress something that they loved early on, and suffer for it.

This doesn't mean that people can't learn or develop new interests. They certainly can. But something of that spark of interests is in there very early as a rule, even if it's only really intensely brought out later.

What's also important about this, however, is that a person's real personality can be suppressed, but very often with bad results.  Some people suppress it, to their misery, their entire lives.  Everyone has seen people who are unhappy in a career or occupation, and wondered why. Well, perhaps that accountant saw himself as a kid as a commercial fisherman, and still does.  Perhaps that cubicle dweller wanted to be a forester, and it hasn't left him.  Perhaps that math teacher really loves baseball, and that's all that he thinks about each day.  These things can't be fully repressed.

They can come roaring back, however, and I've seen that from time to time. Every adult knows one or more instances in which somebody in a seemingly solid career up and bolted for something surprising.  I've known, for example of several instances in which successful lawyers suddenly quit and entered the seminary, or in one instance, Rabbinical school.  I doubt that was a simply newly discovered interest, it'd likely been there all along in some fashion.  I've known other instances in which which lawyers became teachers, teachers became lawyers, or successful business people took jobs as poor farm hands.  I've seen a lot of instances in which a person left a rural area for career in business where they accumulated a fair amount of wealth pretty much with the exclusive desire to go back to their original hometown and live the lifestyle of their youth, often when they're too infirm to do so, which they could have done had they never left.  And, most strikingly at all, I've seen people who lived face paced modern lives, focused on careers and wealth where they had abandoned a simpler rural lifestyle and the religion of their youth, struggle with it in middle age, and return to what they had originally been. That really was who they always were.

That doesn't mean that things don't wax and wane, in terms of interest. That's another oddity all to itself.  Some people have genuine intense loves that they slowly loose. But they can come back.  Absent some other sort of degeneration, people who were intensely interested in one thing, to seemingly loose their touch, can suddenly regain it and do.

This also doesn't mean that if a person was a snotty brat at 5 their doomed to a life of snotty bratness, although that can also happen.  Indeed, for some, a  personality trait can become a cross to bear that's lifelong, but still one that can be handled.. Being a brat is more of a personality defect, at least normally.  Just as a person with abominable speech can learn to speak like a gentleman, a snot can learn correct behavior.  No, what we're speaking of here is core personality traits. Those are pretty fixed by about age five.

Yeoman's Second Law of Behavior.  "Every man is an actor". . . at least in their late teens and early twenties.

Shakespeare famously observed that the world was a stage and every man played many roles in this lifetime, although that was much more true in his day, before the age of certification, than it is now.*  But what is also true, and what he didn't really mean by this quote, that some (but not all) humans go through an age of assumed personality.  Or perhaps, more accurately, some men do, or more accurately yet, a lot of men do, but not all.  Women do not seem to do this to nearly the same extent, and some young men do this much more intensely than other.  Some young women also do this, which is a bad sign, generally, when they do.

What I mean by this is that, starting at some point in the teens, and that point varies, or even in the early twenties, a lot of young men enter a period of falsehood, but not all by other means.  Many who do, do only mildly, to their credit and unknowing relief.

What seems to bring this on, more than any other things, is the discovery of the opposite sex.  Ideally, people are who they are, and they should be that person. But, many young men become somebody else, slightly or greatly, during this period.  Young women, generally given that they are the pursued, and not the pursuer, do not seem to be as equally afflicted.  When they are, its invariably a very bad sign, as they begin to compromise large sections of their personality or persons, which inevitably leads to some trouble, if that's only an element of personal misery.

For the most part, the way this manifests itself is in acquiring false personality attributes that aren't part of their natural ones.  People develop likes they don't really have, and profess dislikes that aren't really theirs.  Perhaps the most amusing treatment of this (in an adult context) was by essayist Reg Henry, who some years ago wrote an entire column of things that people regard as higher class and how he admired them, such as Guinness Stout, and modern jazz, but how in reality he couldn't stand to actually experience them. That's pretty much the way this works.  Young 20 year old men who are active outdoorsmen suddenly become tofu eating Granolas, boys in their late teens who were listening to light rock suddenly declare that they really like some "alternative" music that a girl their interested in likes.  People see films that they actually despise.  They read Catcher in the Rye and declare they loved it, when in actuality they think the protagonist is a whiny self indulgent Boofadore, and so on.

For the most part, this corrects itself fairly early on.  Suddenly people find themselves again and return to their true selves, as per Holscher's First Law of Behavior, but for some this can become a decades long diversion and problem.  People will take up whole careers and decades of behavior based upon their false personality.  When that occurs, the end result tends to be that they come ripping out of it at some later point.  I've seen it more than once.  Some person who was basically a farm hand at heart, with a conservative religious background, will live the big city television told me what to do life for two or three decades, acquiring material items and living in the glass and concrete jungle.  All of a sudden, one day, they'll up and announce that they're moving into an Amish community and have traded in the Lexus for Percherons, leaving their spouse and children baffled.  But that's who they always were.

Yeoman's Third Law of Behavior.  I know why the caged tiger paces.

Everyone has been to a zoo and has seen a tiger pace back and forth, back and forth.  He'll look up occasionally as well, and the deluded believe "look, he wants to be petted," while the more realistic know that he's thinking "I'd like to eat you."  You can keep him in the zoo, but he's still a tiger.  He wants out.  He wants to live in the jungle, and he wants to eat you for lunch. That's his nature, and no amount of fooling ourselves will change it.

It's really no different with human beings.  We've lived in the modern world we've created for only a very brief time.  Depending upon your ancestry, your ancestors lived in a very rustic agrarian world for about 10,000 years, long enough, by some measures to actually impact your genetic heritage.  Prior to that, and really dating back further than we know, due to Yeoman's First Law of History, we were hunters and gatherers, or hunters and gatherers/small scale farmers.  Deep down in our DNA, that's who we still are.

That matters, as just as the DNA of the tiger tells it what it wants, to some degree our DNA informs us of what we want as well.  I do not discount any other influence, and human beings are far, far, more complicated than we can begin to suppose, but it's still the case.  A species that started out eons and eons ago being really smart hunters combined with really smart gatherers/small farmers has specialized in a way that living in Major Metropolis isn't going to change very rapidly.  Deep down, we remain those people, even if we don't know it, and for some, even if we don't like it.

This also impacts the every sensitive roles of men and women.  Primates have unusually great gender differentiation for a  mammal.  Male housecats, for example, aren't hugely different from female housecats.  But male chimpanzees are vastly different from female chimpanzees.  Male human beings are as well, but even much more so.

That's really upsetting to some people, but it simply isn't understood.  If understood, this does not imply any sort of a limitation on either sex, and indeed in aboriginal societies that are really, really, primitive there's much less than in any other society, including our modernized Western one.  Inequality comes in pretty early in societies, but some change in condition from the most primitive seems to be necessary in order to create it.  So, properly understood, those very ancient genetic impulses that were there when we were hiking across the velt hoping not to get eaten by a lion, and hoping to track down an antelope, and planting and raising small gardens, are still there.  That they're experienced differently by the genders is tempered by the fact that, in those ancient times, a lot of early deaths meant that the opposite gender had to step into the other's role, and therefore we're also perfectly capable of doing that.  It's the root basic natures we're talking about, however, that we're discussing here, and that spark to hunt, fish, defend and plant a garden are in there, no matter how much steel and concrete we may surround ourselves with.

The reason that this matters is that all people have these instincts from antiquity, some to greater or lessor degrees. But many people, maybe most, aren't aware that they have them.  Some in the modern world spend a lot of their time and effort acting desperately to suppress these instincts.  But an instinct is an instinct, and the more desperately they act, the more disordered they become.

This doesn't mean, of course, that everyone needs to revert to an aboriginal lifestyle, and that's not going to happen.  Nor would it even mean that everyone needs to hunt or fish, or even raise a garden.  But it does mean that the further we get from nature, both our own personal natures, and nature in chief, or to deny real nature, the more miserable they'll become.  We can't and shouldn't pretend that we're not what we once were, or that we now live in a world where we are some sort of ethereal being that exists separate and apart from that world.  In other words, a person can live on a diet of tofu if they want, and pretend that pigs and people are equal beings, but deep in that person's subconscious, they're eating pork and killing the pig with a spear.

Nature, in the non Disney reality of it.

Yeoman's Fourth Law of Behavior.  Old standards existed for a real reason.

Not every standards that used to apply to human behavior and institutions needs to be retained for all time, but it's a mistake to believe that they existed at whim.  There's trend, fashion, and fancy, and then there's long term standards.

From time to time, almost every society throws off a bunch of old standards.  When they do that, they usually declare them to have been irrelevant for all time, but they hardly ever are.  They were there for a reason.  Sometimes, they no longer apply, but that's because something deeply fundamental has changed.  Other times, the underlying reason keeps on keeping on and the reason for it tends to be rediscovered, slowly, as if its a new discovery.  People fail to think about the deep basis for standards, the really deep ones, at their behavior.  Again, that doesn't mean that some shouldn't be changed, or should never have come into existence, but even in those rare instances careful thought should be given to the matter so that the basic nature of the underlying error can be understood.

Yeoman's Fifth Law of Behavior.  In pop culture, we're always modern and people two or more decades back laughably naive.

A real oddity of human behavior is that people tend to look back as if there was a Golden Age (Holscher's Sixth Law of History) somewhere in the past, while at the same time people think that, in whatever age they currently live, we know everything.  Neither is true.
People look back at all sorts of topics; medicine, science, etc., and laugh at whatever was the current state of the art 20 or 30 years ago, and the applaud whatever we think now, including stuff that's nothing more than a modern medicine show.  Rest assured, a fair percentage of current thought in these areas will be obsolete 20 or 30 years from now.  Interestingly, during the course of that time, it's almost a certainty that some of the old (20+ years back) ideas we're laughing at now, will come back into currency and be current again, replacing whatever we think is now the definitive thought.

Yeoman's Sixth Law of Behavior.  A lot of folks believe they live in the worst times ever even if they don't.

Human historical memory is amazingly short.  As a result of that, people often think that they're enduring epic hardship and live in hideous times, even if they do not.

Current times are a good example.  Many people believe the entire world is awash in a sea of massive violence such as the world has never known.  In actuality, things have never been so peaceful. Crime of all types is down all over the globe.  Warfare between sovereign states has almost disappeared.  Civil wars continue to rage on, but not at the level they once did.  

Consider the 1930s and 1940s. For much of that time every major nation was engaged in a war so violent that destroying entire cities was regarded as okay.  Now, if we look at sovereign states  at war we'd find. . . well, only one example.  North and South Korea are in a legal state of war, and have been since 1950, but in which they don't shoot at each other.

Or consider crime.  In the US, in spite of a recent horror, murder, the worst crime, is way, way, way down.  This doesn't seem to make the news, but its' the case.  For folks with long memories, you should be able to recall a time a couple of decades ago in your own neighborhoods where your town was much more violent, because it was.  But most people don't have memories that really stretch back that far.

Yeoman's Seventh Law of Behavior.  The curse of the early risers is the late risers.

Every human being on the face of the plant can wake up at any appointed hour of the day at night without an alarm, and without aid. In Western societies, however, most don't.

Rather, a lot of people, completely unnecessarily, rely upon artificial aids.  Alarm clocks, for example.  But, in households were there are multiple people related to one another, it is invariably the case that at least one of those people has not lost the natural ability to wake up whenever the appointed hour arrives.  That person just wakes up, on schedule.

Unfortunately for that person, that person will be tasked with waking up the late risers, those who have suppressed their natural ability to wake up. Everyone in that category believes that they're a joy to wake up, and that they spring from bed in a good mood fully ready for the day.

In reality, however, the people who have to be awakened are about as pleasant to deal with as a badger poked with a stick, who needs a flea collar, and which is having a bad day.

For that reason it is clear that most of the worlds historical baddies actually were just people acting in that state between sleep and getting up.  Stalin, for example, committed all of his real nastiness after Molotov tried to awaken him daily.  "Humph, hmmm.. . .huh?. . . I'm AWAKE, send everyone in Leningrad to the Gulag. . ..ZZZZZZZ"    He probably thought he was a really nice guy.  "Molotov?  Where's everyone in Leningrad today?  Well, I'm out to rescue stray kittens and puppies. . . watch the Kremlin for me."  Or take Attila, the Hun.  "ZZZZZZ. . . . What?, WHAT?  I'm awake!  Sack Europe!. . . .ZZZZZZ".  Later, "Where is everyone?   Todays' the day we we were going to the tea cotillion."

Yeoman's Eighth Law of Human Behavior.  People like to be scared.

People like to be scared. Not all people, but probably most people, to some extent, and some people love to be really, really, scared.

That's why people go berserk for things like end of the world predictions based on things like the Mayan calendar.  And it's the same reason that people completely ignore the Biblical injunction against trying to figure out the Last Day (even Christ said he did not know the day nor the hour), and come up with fanciful calculations about when things end.  And it's also why they make the ending as horrific and ghastly as conceivably possible. People like that.

It's probably also why a lot of prognosticators go for the worst possible of all outcomes in anything.  We will,in the future, have recessions and periods of growth, but some folks just love predicting a complete financial collapse.  Take any one hobby or avocation, and some folks are busy predicting its end.  The weird Australian film Mad Max, for example, picked up on that entire theme, starting off with "the last of the V8s," to the undoubted delighted horror of muscle car fans.  There will be a day in which, prognosticators tell us, corn, meat, gasoline, Hello Kitty dolls. . .whatever, will be all gone."

Some things do indeed end, and there's genuine reason to worry about some long term trends or possibilities.  But those are generally amongst the least likely to inspire real panic, as they're not as fun to ponder.

Yeoman's Ninth Law of Human Behavior:  Some people would rather preserve options than make a decision, and they can't be compelled to decide no matter what.

 Everyone must make decisions in life, of course.  But not everyone has the same decision making style. Some people are highly analytical, others highly instinctive. Some make decisions based on facts, others on emotions.  Some make decisions rapidly, while others prefer to deliberate slowly.

But there are some people who actually prefer to have options, rather than make decisions at all. For highly decisive people, these people are aggravating in the extreme.

Chances are high that everyone knows somebody like this. Confronted with the necessity of deciding something, they tend to go to a decisive person and lay out the options. The decisive person will decide. Rather than accept it, the other person will set out 27 more options, and go on and on actually past the point where the other person  has committed a decision, with that person usually aggravated in the extreme by that point.

These people like options more than decisions, and are often able to get by on a lot of decisions by not deciding.  Somebody else will end up doing it, usually to the declared surprise of the option lover, who doesn't like having options eliminated, and who has added an other 72 options by the time the decisive person forces a commitment. 

Originally published on June 10, 2013

Yeoman's Tenth Law of Human Behavior:  Dulce bellum inexpertis.**  Just because you are fascinated by the portrayal of something doesn't mean you'll like it.

Human beings have a distinct characteristic of being fascinated by portrayals, in written or cinematic form, of events which in reality are horrifically stressful and painful to many who experience the same thing in reality.  In certain instances, portrayals of certain events tend to even glamorize them in spite of their realities, and there's just something about those events which cannot keep them from being somewhat glamorous in portrayal.

War is the classic example.  War has been written about and studied since humans could first write, and war movies are one of the earliest genres of film.  Something about these portrayals touches something so deep in our natures that they glamorize war no matter what.  As more than one sage has noted, even "anti war" films end up glamorizing it.  

Most people would not take that to mean war is nice, but it is still the case that some will in fact confuse their fascination for the topic with a love of all things martial, and then learn when they experience it first hand, they don't like it to their shock.  Indeed, that's a relatively common experience.

War of course is an extreme example, but there's any number of similar things that have the same feature.  People like the depiction of all sorts of stressful events.  One genre, for example, is the courtroom drama.  I've met people who became lawyers due to courtroom dramas (I'm not one of them; I rarely will watch a courtroom drama). They went into law believing that it was excitement and drama because they were excited by cinematic dramas, but in reality they find that it's a lot of stress, to their shock.  A friend of mine who entered the filed due to the written portrayal of lawyers left it a while back, and when I later spoke to this person they were left pretty much with contempt for the profession they were once members of, in a rather extreme example of this path.

Police work is another such example.  People love crime dramas and a lot of people will actually enter police work because of how it is portrayed.  I've met more than one person who specifically cited "CSI" as the formational basis of their career path. But real on the streets police work is hard and depressing, and again I've know more than one policeman who abandoned it, in once case after just barely trying it, when they learned the reality of it felt different than watching it on television.

Of course, this isn't uniform by any means. There are people who love all of these endeavors (there are even people who like fighting in wars), but what this reveals is that there's something about our human natures that causes us to mentally role play stressful situations, and to like doing so, even though in reality we might not like living them.  Chances are this has something to do with our aboriginal past, when listening to the time Ooot Goonk was attacked by a lion for the tenth time armed us mentally for the era when a lion decided we'd be a fun plaything.

Yeoman's Eleventh Law of Human Behavior:  Men and women are different.

What?  You're joking, right?  That's obvious.

Well, you'd think so but to a surprising degree people don't really grasp that and occasionally even when they do they want to explain it away to socialization.  It isn't due to that, it's deep in our DNA.

By different, I don't mean that our physical morphology is different, that's obvious.  No, I mean psychologically, and not due to our society or learning or early childhood experience.  We were truly made that way.

For anyone who has spent any time at all on this planet, this would seemingly be obvious, but it's something that some people seriously will dispute.  Indeed, I heard a radio show the other day in which a caller, a university professor (without children, which is probably critical to his delusion) argue, in spite of being married, that gender differences were entirely due to socialization.  Baloney.

We're all in the same species, to be sure, and as human beings we share more than we are different, but there are deep differences in the psychological make up of men as opposed to women.  Over time, this has been very much supported by the sciences of biology and evolutionary biology.  Men and women handle stress differently, with women generally handling it better than men.  The anger and return to norm curves are significantly different in men and women. Women generally have better language skills than men (which isn't to say that there aren't those with good language skills in both genders).  Women also tend to see shades of color more distinctly than men, which isn't really a psychological aspect of our beings but  which is related to it in that color perception is processed in the brain.

And whether we like to admit it or not, just watching a group of men and women over time will demonstrate a significant difference in what they generally like as amusement.  In spite of all the efforts to create a different situation, women do generally like personal relationship dramas much more than men, and men tend to like stories of violence more than women (see the Tenth Law of Human Behavior above).  

Again, all this goes back to our primitive pasts and the different roles men and women played in that past. This doesn't mean that we must recreate and be frozen in the roles, but it does mean that we have a certain mental makeup and which it serves us to be aware of.

Yeoman's Twelfth Law of Human Behavior:  Logic isn't the default decision maker for a lot of people.

This is another one of those items which sounds like criticism, but it isn't.  The fact of the matter is that not all human beings come to decisions in the same manner, even though we tend to act as if they do.

Indeed "logic", the process of analytical thinking, is not the default means of decision making for most people. That shocks and even frustrates those who do engage in analytical logical thought, as they presume, logically, that everyone makes their decisions that way.  For professions where their occupants think logically, either by nature or training, this can be particularly frustrating, as these professions are problem solving by nature, and its hard to grasp why a person will not grasp the solution derived for them.

The reason they won't is that people quite commonly make their decisions by emotion and world view, which are powerful factors indeed.  They're so powerful that they can operate to the detriment of a person in certain stressful situations and are very difficult for an individual to overcome.  Indeed, a failure of a person's view to prevail when based on these factors is often extraordinarily frustrating to them with anger being the common byproduct.

As an example, I've seen on multiple occasions where a party in litigation has a certain view of things, based upon what they internally believe or feel, or both.  They very often believe that because they feel and believe that way, that everyone who is informed as to their feelings and belief will adopt that view as well. They typically start off with the "just explain" position, not realizing that their opponent is probably locked into a similar method of arriving at a conclusion, and when that explanation does not convince the opponent, they become convinced the opponent is acting out of malice.  In a broader sense, just looking around at large political issues, from a logical prospective, can provide many examples where people act out of a deeply felt belief, rather than logic.

This can be extremely problematic, as with genuine problems, a logical solution is very often the only workable solution. But the fact that most human beings don't make their decisions that way routinely, and almost all people don't base all their decisions on logic, is part of our natures and probably a good thing.  Taken to its extreme, those who advance their aims in society or personally solely on logic can actually be destructive, as they fail to recall that this isn't how most people perceive the world.  Indeed, people who listen only to economics, for example, reduce the world to a logical construct which almost no human being actually appreciates or wishes to live in.  We're a rational animal, to be sure, but an emotional one as well.

Yeoman's Thirteenth Law of Human Behavior:  The measure of the utility of something is how well it accomplishes a task, not how new it is.  Nonetheless, people tend to go with the new, even if less useful.

People tend to believe that they adopt new technology or implements because they are better or more efficient than what came before them.  Very often they are. But they aren't always.  Nonetheless, the new tends to supplant the old, simply because its new.

There are plenty of examples of this.  Some old tools and old methods accomplish any one job better than things that came after them, and some things remain particularly useful within certain condition or niches.  Nonetheless, it takes educating a person to that to keep those older things in use, because they are, well. . . older.

Yeoman's Fourteenth Law of Behavior.  Democratic behavior is the small scale human norm, and the large scale human exception.

Americans are so used to the ideal of democratic thought that they believe, in their heart of hearts, that all people everywhere will behave in a democratic fashion.  They will, but only on a very small scale.

People instinctively behave democratically in small groups, and probably always have.  With a group of your immediate friends and neighbors, everyone generally gets a vote.  In a tribal society, which is the human default norm, everyone is your friend, neighbor and relative anyhow, and that's how tribal societies act within themselves.  Plains Indians were highly democratic, for example, with no real "chiefs" like movies like to pretend their were.  Germanic tribal war raiding bands were democratic.

The problem is that tribes aren't democratic in a larger society, they remain tribal. Tribes are xenophobic, or even violently hostile, to other groups outside the tribe. 

Overcoming that is hard to do, but that's what has to be done to even create a nation state.  If people don't become more loyal to their nation, than their tribe, the nation ultimately fails under stress.  And going the next step, and making it so all those people of different backgrounds can accept majority rule, is really tough.  

It's also learned behavior, and even in democratic nations if sufficient stress exist, some people will fall back into tribalism. Criminal gangs are actually just types of tribes, as a rule, recognizing only themselves and finding value only within the tribe.  Overcoming this type of behavior is a matter of constant education for a democratic society, until it become so ingrained that people are taught it by the circumstances of them simply living within the society.

Yeoman's Fifteenth Law of Behavior. The Hot People are the curse of the Cold People.

Some people have a temperature or metabolism or something that makes them feel hot all the time. These people absolutely believe the rest of the world feels the exact same thing.

In spite of complaints and reactions, the hot people will throw open windows in cold weather or turn on air conditioners when everyone else in the same locality is shivering.  If a compliant is lodged, they'll complain "people are hot in here!".  No, people aren't, just the Hot Person is, but as that's how they perceive the world, everyone in the world must feel that same way.

 Yeoman's Sixteenth Law of Behavior.  Some people are dependable.

And that's not necessarily an enjoyable thing for them, quite frankly.

Some people are flat out dependable.  They can be depended upon as an aspect of their character.

Because of that, people depend upon them. They're the ones that their friends and families keep out late into the night, over the dependable person's objection, knowing that he or she will take them home and still get up the next day at 5:00 a.m. no matter what.  He's the one that keeps working well after he could retire as his family likes the income or his wife is scared of what retirement means, and can be depended upon to do so.  He or she is the one that's tasked with five different errands for family during a week day when there isn't time to do it, and still is there at work.

The dependable people generally remain dependable until they die, at which time they're fondly remembered for having been so dependable.  The irony of it is that their high sense of duty to them was more likely to be seen as a cross than an honor form their own prospective.

Yeoman's Eighteenth Law of Behavior:  Some people like secrets (and some people do not).

This is an odd one to me, as I'm not in that category.  I despise secrets. Therefore, I'm in the opposite camp.

Secrets are necessary.  It's just part of the way the world works, in certain things.  Lawyers keep a lot of secrets all the time. Governments do as well. The Seal of the Confessional binds priests to keep secrets, but also those who overhear confessions by accident.  All secrets, however, are a burden upon the people who are entrusted to keep them.

Which is why personally I don't like them, if they aren't necessary.

But some people love making things secret, and often for no logical reason at all. They'll entrust all kinds of information to another on the basis that "this is a secret".

In some routine, common interactions, I understand that.  People entrust medical information, financial information, or just personal information, to others as they need and desire their participation in a matter, but also desire it to be confidential for some personal reason.  I'm not referencing that, however.  Some people simply like secrets.

Indeed, I'm familiar with an instance in which a group of siblings routinely make things secret. Why?  No idea. They just like things being secrets, I guess.  The secrets are always of a nature that they cannot be kept long term, however, and they always blow up at a point late in the day when their revelation comes forward.  This is related, I think, to the next item.

The problem, FWIW, of unnecessary secrets is that they are amongst those most likely to compel a person to lie, that being in part the person that is entrusted with the news.  "Did you hear that Dick and Jane are going to Hawaii on vacation?. . . Um. . . . "  Lying itself is a burden, and to Apostolic Christians, a sin.  

For those in the opposite camp, who are often those who are highly reliable with secrets, it's all a burden.

Yeoman's Nineteenth Law of Behavior:  Some people like drama in their lives, and will create it is its absent.

Everyone is burdened or blessed with some drama, the burden or the blessing being dependent upon the nature of the drama.   But some people so enjoy drama, that they'll create if it is absent.

Everyone has seen somebody whose life is a constant swirl of personal drama.  It's one thing to be born into a problem of evolve into it, but if a person constantly has interpersonal drama, it's likely they're creating it.

The question of why is an existential question, but the behavior is fairly apparent.  If a person lives a life that resembles the members of the cast of Vanderpump Rules, at least in their telling, they're likely writing their script that way.

Yeoman's Twentieth Law of Behavior:  "Sin makes you stupid" Jimmy Akin

Truly it does.

This phrase by Catholic Apologist Jimmy Akin may sound flippant, but it isn't.  Something about engaging in wrongful behavior is intoxicating, and like being drunk, it dulls the senses, perhaps because once gotten away with, the temptation is to go further.  Soon or later those who go deeper, go too deep, and do something really dumb.

Date 10th, 11th, and 12th Laws added:  June 13, 2014.  Thirteenth added July 7, 2014. Fourteenth November 26, 2014.  Fifteenth added on August 23, 2015.  Sixteenth and Seventeenth added April 9, 2017,  Eighteenth and Nineteenth added on May 15, 2023.  Twentieth added on February 16, 2024.
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*The full quote is:
All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first, the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
And then the whining school-boy, with his satchel
And shining morning face, creeping like snail
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lined,
With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon,
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.
 ** Roman proverb.  "War is sweet to those who have not experienced it".

Monday, November 16, 2015

Taking them at their word. The war aims of evil

I am continually amazed by the extent to which Western observers, even now, grasp to understand the Islamic State and its motivations.  How dimly people grasp history.

Clearly I need to add a new, ninth, Holscher's Law of History.  And when I do, what that law will be is that "Radical Forces often bluntly declare their goals, and non radical ones do not believe them."  Or perhaps that's more properly a Law of Behavior.

Because that is in fact the case. Very often, the most radical, and evil, forces and movements are perfectly blunt about their objectives, and yet those in civilized nations go about not believing them.  Only when its too late, and the history of a topic is written, is that noted, often with retrospective disdain.

Take Hitler for example.  In 1924, in his work Mein Kampf, he made very plain his hatred for the Jews and disdain for any people who were not what he termed "Aryan".  He also made plain his disdain for Soviet Russia.  But when he stated "He who wants to live should fight, therefore, and he who does not want to battle in this world of eternal struggle does not deserve to be alive" people didn't believe him.  Indeed, it wasn't really until late in World War Two, when the death camps and concentration camps fell into Allied hands, that the full extent of the Nazis' insane hatred of anyone but themselves was fully understood. And yet, they never denied it.  All through the 1920s and into the 1940s that was evident for anyone to see.  The western powers, indeed the world, chose not to believe it, as it seemed so bizarrely impossible.

So too of the early Communists.  Anyone can read, and indeed an serious history student should read, The Black Book On Communism.  It's a fascinating, and yet horrific, read.  The early Communist made it plain that the price of contesting their rise was death.  But in the western world this was simply not believed, and indeed was not really believed until after World War Two when the Soviets themselves threw off the last of their revolutionary leaders, Stalin, and the full horrors of his rule became known, even though the meaning of Communist control was already known anywhere they'd been temporarily. Why wasn't that more fully appreciated?  Only because it seemed to horrific to be believed.

Also ignored in both of the above examples was their obvious and open expansionist goals.  Hitler may have denied German expansionist aims prior to 1939, but in 1924 Hitler stated:
Without consideration of traditions and prejudices, Germany must find the courage to gather our people, and their strength, for an advance along the road that will lead this people from its present, restricted living-space to new land and soil; and hence also free it from the danger of vanishing from the earth or of serving others as a slave nation. The National Socialist Movement must strive to eliminate the disproportion between our population and our area — viewing this latter as a source of food as well as a basis for power politics — between our historical past and the hopelessness of our present impotence.
 If that wasn't blunt enough, he also stated 
And so, we National Socialists consciously draw a line beneath the foreign policy tendency of our pre–War period. We take up where we broke off six hundred years ago. We stop the endless German movement to the south and west, and turn our gaze toward the land in the East. At long last, we break off the colonial and commercial policy of the pre–War period and shift to the soil policy of the future. If we speak of soil in Europe today, we can primarily have in mind only Russia and her vassal border states.
How could, therefore, an invasion of the USSR have been a surprise?

And so to the early Communist.  The Communist Manifesto had always spoken of a revolution of the international working class, not the working class in one country.  Indeed, the official "socialism in one country" policy that the USSR adopted under Stalin was a departure from orthodox Communism which held that once the revolution came, it had to be global. That change came about as Stalin appreciated the failure of Communist revolutions in Eastern Europe after World War One and recognized that ongoing foreign expansionist efforts by the USSR, such as it attempted in Poland in the early 1920s, were likely to result in the collapse of the USSR itself.  It was that debate, in part, which brought about the downfall of Trotsky.  But Stalin's victory on that point never meant that the international goal wasn't there, but rather that it couldn't be brought about at one time.  When the Red Army went into Eastern Europe at the end of World War Two, therefore, it should have come as no surprise, and of course it really did not, that where the Red Army went, for the most part, Communism stayed. 

And so to, with the Islamic State.

The goal of the Islamic State is simple, plain, and stated.  It wishes to being about a global caliphate.  That is, a global Islamic state ruled by a single monarchical figure who has ties by lineage to Mohammad.  It seeks to bring about an apocalyptic struggle with "Rome", which it takes to be the Western world, and to win, bringing in the day of judgment.  Anyone, including other Muslims, who are not strictly adherent to their view of Sunni Islam is the enemy, and they have urged Muslims to kill non Muslims.

They mean it.

They mean to destroy every other religion in the world, including the Shia branch of Islam.

And supporting and bolstering them is the Koran.  It matters not that the Koran has a mixed message in these regards, nor does it matter to them that a majority of Muslims in modern times have not felt a violent call to that faith. There are, simply put, violent passages in the Koran and they rely upon them.  Ignoring their stated purpose and frankly ignoring the violent passages of the Koran is the same as ignoring the organic document of any major radical movement, as mistake.

Defeating an enemy of this type is not easy.  All prior historical examples demonstrate this.  Defending against the early Muslim armies was difficult and violent, and not achieved through negotiation or appeals to common sense.  Nazi Germany fought on for a good two years after it was obvious that it was going to loose the war (in contrast to Japan, which in spite of what people say, was rational enough to quit when it finally knew it couldn't fight to a negotiated conclusion, or the rational Italians which overthrew their fascist government).  The fall of Communism came about in 1990, after it had evolved out of radicalism, not in 1920 when it was fully still in it.

The ideology of the Islamic State is so radical that it's not going to evolve out of it, and the longer it's in control in any one place the more of that place is lost.  It is at war with the entire world.  The world needs to recognize that, and we cannot simply manage our way out of this one. That ought to be plain now, but then it really should have been earlier.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Today In Wyoming's History: After Appomattox. The Civil War's impact on Wyomi...

After Appomattox. The Civil War's impact on Wyoming.



We recently posted this item on the Civil War in Wyoming:
Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming in the Civil War: I posted this item on our other blog, Lex Anteinternet, very recently for a variety of reasons: Lex Anteinternet: The Stars and Bars as ...
That's not where Wyoming's story with the Civil War ends, however.  When the guns fell silent at Appomattox (which of course didn't really end the war everywhere), changes kept on coming.  And indeed it was inevitable that they would, given the operation of Holscher's Fourth Law of History, War Changes Everything.  So here we'll look at that part of the history of our state, which
again is a very significant one we've heretofore overlooked.
More on the thread posted on Today In Wyoming's' History.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Ineffective Point of Argument I: The Wrong Side of History

"The wrong side of history".

Recently, a really popular statement in arguments is that something or somebody is "on the wrong side of history".

You don't know that.

There are any number of movements or trends that people thought were inevitable that turned out not to be.  All of these things were thought to be on the "right side of history" at one time.  In the 1930s plenty of people in the Western world, including the United States, believed that fascism was on the right side of history. The same is true of Communism in the 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s.  Shoot, I even saw an argument quite recently that Communism actually was "on the right side of history", made by somebody who was centered on the Third World and just wouldn't give up the argument.

Something being on "the wrong side of history" is meant to be an argument stopper by somebody who is supporting a popular trend and who doesn't want the other side argued.  The suggestion is that "this is inevitable and you should just accept it".  It's an intellectually anemic argument for a variety of reasons.

For one thing, nobody knows how history comes out on anything until quite some time has passed on the topic.  Fascism went down as being on the "wrong side of history", in this context, when teh major fascists powers were defeated in 1945.  Up until then, nobody was really sure.  Communism didn't go down as being on the wrong side of history, in this context, until some time in the 1990s.

The other thing people hint at meaning when they say this is that somebody is on the morally wrong side of something.  A trend line however, doesn't determine that.  The Nazis and the Stalinist were always on the morally wrong side of history even when they were on the rise.  A trend line doesn't determine right or wrong. Right and wrong determines that.  Guys like Thomas Becket and Thomas More died being on the right side of history, but they were bucking a trend when that happened.

Saturday, March 14, 2015

An observation about the dangers of contemporary histories.

 [Waiting for a job (donkeys), England]
 Saddled British donkeys, turn of the prior century, waiting for a hack.

I've noted this before, but it's a dangerous matter, when writing history, to rely too heavily on the first hand observations of those close to events.  Indeed, I've sent it out here, in a slightly different form:

 Holscher's Seventh Law of History.  No accurate history can be written until 60 years have passed since the event.

A really thorough history of  an event cannot be written close in time to the event.  Indeed, several decades must pass from the event's occurrence before an accurate history can be written.

That may sound shocking (although at least historian Ladislas Farago noted this in the introduction to his early biography of George S. Patton; Patton:  Ordeal and  Triumph) but its true.  Close in time to an event, authors tend to be too much men of their own times with their views colored by the context of those times. Such influences tend to remain at least as long as twenty years after an event occurs.  Direct participants in an event have a stake in what occurred, which also tend to inform and color their views.

Beyond that, however, and very significantly, authors who write close in time to an event, including those who participated in it, tend to simply accept certain conditions as the norm, and therefore diminish their importance int their writings or omit them entirely.  Conversely, they tend to emphasize things that were new or novel, for the same reasons.  Given that, early written records tend to overplay the new and omit the routine, so that later readers assume the new was the normal and they don't even consider the routine.

Take for example the often written about story of the German army during World War Two.  Only more informed historians realize that most of the German army was no more mechanized during World War Two than it was during World War One.  Fewer yet realize that a fair number of German soldiers remained horse mounted during World War Two for one reason or another.  Period writers had little reason to emphasize this, however, as it really wasn't novel at all at the time, and not very dramatic either, and reflected similar conditions in many armies.

This doesn't mean that early works and first hand recollections aren't valuable.  Rather, it means that a person cannot base his final view on those early works, however.  It also provides the answer as to why later historical works on a frequently addressed topic are not only valuable, but necessary.  Rick Atkinson's and Max Hasting's recent works on World War Two, for example, really place the conflict in context in all sorts of ways for the very first time.  The plethora of new books on the First World War that were at first regarded as revisionist are in fact corrective, and likewise the war is coming into accurate focus for the first time.
  Fort Riley, Kansas. Soldiers of a cavalry machine gun platoon going over an obstacle during a field problem
 Cavalryman, Ft. Riley Kansas, 1942.

I don't mean to rehash myself, and goodness knows I don't need to, as I blabber here enough.  But this is something that occurs to me again and again, in terms of writing history.  Contemporary accounts of things are naturally geared towards the dramatic and unusual, not the routine and normal.

News accounts from World War Two emphasized the mechanized nature of the German army, as mechanization was new and spectacular.  The fact that most of the German forces weren't mechanized wasn't interesting to contemporary journalist, as that was the long historical norm.  You can't expect, really, the average journalist to write that most of the German troops he was viewing were walking, or that the Germans deployed cavalry in France.  You'd have expected the Germans to do that, as every army would have done that.

For that matter, you wouldn't get too excited, if you were writing about farms, noting that men were in their fields plowing with horses in the 1940s.  Men had always done that, so it was hardly worth noting.  That there were new tractors and automated implements would be more interesting.

If you are writing about daily living today, you probably don't write about how many ink pens, or pencils, you have in the house.  Computers are still new enough, even now, that they're the exciting thing. That the old writing tools are around, probably doesn't interest you that much.  But they are.

The point generally is that, when looking at history in any context, you have to recall that the mundane and normal of the times often goes unrecorded, the weird unusual and spectacular does. But that colors our view of what was written about any one time, and often the mundane and normal of the past is what would interest us now.

Monday, July 7, 2014

Everything Old is New Again. Yeoman's laws of History and Behavior and the U.S. Military Sidearm.

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Yeoman's Second Law of History.  Everything last occurred more recently than you suppose.
Here too, it doesn't matter what the topic is, it happened much more recently than you think it did.  Almost everything and every behavior is really durable, if it had any purpose in the first place.

For example, last bayonet charge?  Are you thinking World War One?  Nope, the British did one in Iraq.  Small unit, but none the less they did it.  And in the Second Gulf War.  Last cavalry charge?  Civil War?  No again, they've happened as recently as the current war in Afghanistan.  Last use of horse mounted troops?  Well. . . we aren't there.  It's still going on.  We're never as far from what we think is the distant past as we imagine.
From Yeoman's Laws of History.

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 Soldiers training with M1911 .45 ACP pistols during World War Two.

This past week, the U.S. Army announced that it is giving up on an effort to replace the M9 pistol it adopted in 1985 (basically because Congress forced it to) with another 9mm pistol.  It wants a pistol that shoots a larger cartridge.  Something in the .40 to .45 range.

The pistol that never really left.  A Greek soldier coaches a Polish soldier in the shooting of the M1911 handgun.  How exactly a scene like this comes about, I don't know, but the M1911 kept on keeping on in the hands of soldiers who really needed an effective handgun.

Instruction on the M9, the Army's current (well, one of the current) handguns, taking place in Afghanistan.

People who follow such things will recall that the U.S. Army had been using the .45 ACP cartridge and the M1911 pistol since 1911.  The Army never saw any reason to replace either, but Congress did and ultimately the Army was forced into adopting the 9mm cartridge, which was the NATO pistol standard.  The Army ended up adopting a Beretta pattern of pistol as the M9, and has been using it ever since, sort of.

Truth be known, just as with the 5.56 cartridge and the M16, there were those in the Army who were never very happy with the change, and ongoing criticism went on for a long time.  There were always efforts to paint a happy picture on the pistol situation, in spite of persistent rumors of the cartridge being inadequate and the M9 having problems, but they were basically officially denied.  Then wars happened.

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Yeoman's Thirteenth Law of Human Behavior:  The measure of the utility of something is how well it accomplishes a task, not how new it is.  Nonetheless, people tend to go with the new, even if less useful.

People tend to believe that they adopt new technology or implements because they are better or more efficient than what came before them.  Very often they are. But they aren't always.  Nonetheless, the new tends to supplant the old, simply because its new.

There are plenty of examples of this.  Some old tools and old methods accomplish any one job better than things that came after them, and some things remain particularly useful within certain condition or niches.  Nonetheless, it takes educating a person to that to keep those older things in use, because they are, well. . . older.
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For reasons that are a bit of a historical oddity, the U.S. Army has always been pistol heavy compared to other armies, and so unlike many other armies, the Army's pistol actually ends up being used in combat.  Given that, the .45 ACP began to creep back into use for special troops in the service, followed by the M1911.  Recently, the Marine Corps simply gave up on the 9mm M9 and readopted a new version of the M1911 for combat troops. The Army now appears set to do so, and in fact has been issuing variants of the M1911 to special troops for some time.  The Navy too has been issuing a .45 ACP pistol, although it's not a M1911, when conditions require it.  This follows the interesting story of the service's 7.62 NATO M14 rifle creeping back into use after decades of denying it was more effective than the 5.56 M16, although there's no indication that the M14 will replace the M4/M16, and I am sure it will not. The M1911 .45 ACP pistol may very well end up replacing the M9 and the 9mm completely. At least some big cartridge pistol will.  This basically proves the critics of the M9 and the 9mm to have been right all along.

 
U.S. soldiers in Vietnam.  All of the firearms that can be seen in this photograph are M16A1 rifles, a rifle that came into service due to being first adopted by the USAF for service (as the M16) in Vietnam.  The rifle supplanted the M14 over the objection of Springfield Armory, which ended up ceasing to exist in the process.  In spite of repeated efforts to fix various problems associated with it, which has resulted in the rifle remaining in service to this day, there have always been grumblings about it.



U.S. soldier of the 1st Infantry Division in Afghanistan, with an updated version of the M14 rifle.  Like the M1911, the M14 never really left the services, as it carried on in the hands of special troops before coming roaring back into service due to the recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

It's sort of an interesting story in context of the lessons of history.  The Army has played out this story before.

The U.S. Army went big into sidearms during the frontier era, when effective revolvers first became available.  Revolvers ended up being issued to every single cavalryman by the mid 19th Century, which was not the case for most armies, which relied much more on sabers and perhaps a long arm of some sort.  American cavalrymen, by the post Civil War frontier era, were all provided with a carbine, a saber and a sidearm.  In the field, sabers were often omitted.  Because of this, sidearms were regarded as a serious combat arm by the American military, and in spite of efforts to change that over the years, this remains the case.  American troops carry sidearms to an unusual degree.

In the mid 19th Century, cap and ball service revolvers were generally .36 or .44, with .44s being the more common issue arm in the U.S. Army (and also in the Confederate army).  .36s were used, but they were not used as much as .44s.  The .44 "Dragoon" revolver had come in the prior two decades, and it remained the standard up until 1873, at which point the Army adopted the M1873 Colt revolver in a .45 cartridge.  Why the change from .44 to .45 I don't know, as there was already a big .44 cartridge available, but that brought in the .45.  

Civil War Union Cavalryman with Colt 1860 model revolver.  This cap and ball revolver was the last of the series of successful cap and ball Colts.

The .45 as the service caliber remained in use for decades but in the late 19th Century an effort was made to replace it with a .38 cartridge and a new, double action, revolver was adopted.  It was used, along with old stocks of .45 revolvers, in the Spanish American War, but it was a failure in the Philippine Insurrection and .45 revolvers were reissued and a new one adopted.

 The 1st U.S. Volunteer Cavalry on the San Juan Heights. Theodore Roosevelt carried, and used, a .38 Colt revolver that had been recovered from the USS Maine in the action.

Sound sort of familiar?

Finally, a brand new .45 cartridge and a new automatic pistol were adopted in 1911. That pistol and cartridge carried right on until 1985, and it appears set to come back on it.  History repeating itself.

  
American soldiers in France with captured German 9mm P08s. The 9mm cartridge is actually a little older than the .45 ACP.

This is an interesting story, to followers of things of this type, as it shows the "history repeating itself maxim, and it's a story the US has actually lived through more than one.  The US military had a .45 sidearm and started to replace it with a lighter .38, but that failed, and the US went back to the .45.  Later in the 1980s, the US again replaced the .45 with a lighter cartridge, this time the 9mm. Granted, politics and pressure were involved with it, and an aspect of it was the adjustment of the service to increased numbers of women combined with the erroneous belief that women couldn't handle the bigger handgun.  It's not really a simple story. Yet here again, the 9mm is set to be replaced, apparently, with a .45 again.

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Yeoman's First Law of History.  Everything first happened longer ago than you suspect.
It doesn't matter what the topic is, but the first occurrence of anything is always further back in time than originally thought.  This is why certain distant dates are continually pushed back, and will continue to be. So, take whatever you like, say the first use of the horse, or the first appearance of humans in North America, and you'll find the "first" date gets more and more distant in time.  Things that were thought to happen, say, 5,000 years ago, turn out to have happened 50,000 years ago, or 500,000 years ago, as we gain better data.
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We've done that with rifles too, actually.  At the turn of the century, when smokeless powder weapons were coming in, the .45-70 single shot "Trapdoor" Springfield was replaced by the .30-40 Krag in the Army.  In the Navy and Marine Corps, however, the .45-70 was replaced by the 6mm Navy Lee, which proved too light and was soon thereafter replaced itself.  

U.S. Marines on board the USS Wyoming, equipped with Navy Lees.

Ultimately, the .30 became universal in the US military until the 5.56 came in, but then the .30 started coming back in again, with the recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The point?  I suppose there really isn't one, other than that this provides an interesting way to explore the operation of some of the prime Yeoman's Laws of History and Yeoman's Law of Human Behavior.