Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.

June 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.

The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.

June 7, 2023

Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.

June 8, 2023

The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.

June 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.

Sudanese Civil War

Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.

June 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.  

The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.

June 13, 2023, cont.

Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol.  40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.

Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.

June 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:

Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.

This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.

Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure.   The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly.  Both sides are taking heavy casualties.

June 23, 2023

Russia Civil War?

This is odd:

Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation

Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.

Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.

June 23, 2023, cont

Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.

This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.

June 23, cont

Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.

June 24, 2023

Russian Civil War

Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name.  Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

This leaves Prigozhin now way out.

Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.

June 24, cont:

Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.

Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.

One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.

Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?

June 25, 2023

Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War

This bizarre drama seems to have played out.

Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.

He better sleep with one eye open.

There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.

His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.

The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.

June 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

June 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.

Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus.  This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion.  Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north.  It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.

ISW, on this, reports:

Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.[7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City.[8]

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]

ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist.  For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.

Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.

Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors.  It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway.  Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin.  ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.

June 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.

This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet.  If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on.  If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.

ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.

Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.

June 29, 2023

Russian Civil War

General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.

June 30, 2023

Chinese Balloon

The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.

Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.

Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War

A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.

Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.

This now seems unlikely.  One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird.  What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?

Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.

Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.

Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23

There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.

If so, Russia is really playing with fire.  Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all. 

It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\

July 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.

July 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.

Israel/Palestinians

Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.

July 5, 2023

Israel/Palestinians

Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.

July 6, 2023

Russian Civil War

Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.

US v. ISIL

Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.

The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine.  This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina

Related threads:

Ack. War reporting by people who know nothing about the military. Armored losses in Ukraine.

Uprising In Russia? What just happened?

Uprising In Russia? What just happened?

Eee gads.The private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which has fought as a Russian proxy all over the world, and which first made its appearance in the Russian grab of Crimea in 2014, rebelled earlier this week, took Rostov (to the apparent welcome of its residents), dashed north, and appeared to be well on its way to taking Moscow.  Russian police were apparently debating whom to side with.  Some Russian soldiers threw in with him. Seven Russia air force aircraft were shot down.

A nuclear arms facility surrendered without putting up a fight. . . (oh, oh).

And not it's all over, Prigozhin having stood down and agreed to go into exile in Belorussian (lucky them), and some of his troops receiving spots in the Russian Army as contract soldiers.

This doesn't come close to making sense.

Had he continued to advance, Putin would have fell. Russia might have descended into multi factional civil war (it's done it before).

Putin's enemies have a way of flying out hotel windows.

Prigozhin knows that.

This really doesn't add up at all.

In modern coups, you really don't make a deal like this.  There's no modern precedent.  As my history minded son reminded me, there are medieval ones, but that doesn't happen anymore.

This doesn't even happen in movies like The Wild Geese.

Once you strike against the king, you have to win.

What happened?

From an earlier era:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVII. Aging, Russian military culture, Cinematic explortation of the 60s and 70s, The King of Canada.

Older America.

The median age of Americans is now 38.8, a figure brought up from last decade's 37.2 due to the obvious advance in aging of the Baby Boomers and the decline in the birth rate.

This is not a surprise, nor a disaster, contrary to how it seems to be sometimes portrayed.  The median will obviously advance into the 40s shortly.

This brings up this next item, from the Adam Smith blog:

Older World

Fertility rates and the conflict with the liberal vision

That headline wouldn't seem to make sense at first, but it actually does in context.

One of the things that people are wringing their hands about is the declining birth rate all over the world.

This brings up piles of incorrect analysis and ignored facts.  In the short term, by which we mean very short term, you can find plenty of pundits, often of the environmentalist inclination, still giving Malthusian warnings that we're about to breed ourselves into oblivion.  In fact, the data shows that in most regions of the glob, the trend is reversing, and in some very much reversed.

Which brings up the next example of hand wringing.   Conservatives at first, but now liberals as well, are worried about the demographic death of entire societies.  Some countries are now at the point where they're doing something that hasn't been done for eons, which is to take official measures to encourage couples to have children.

The Adam Smith institution isn't worked about it. They state:

This past century has included glorious events - the economic liberation of women for one. The result of that freedom and liberty is fewer children. Oh well, that’s just what humans want to do with their freedom and liberty.

It’s therefore the politics that needs to change, nothing else. For the people have spoken in their most intimate acts and decisions.

It might well be true that some don’t like that aggregate result, the society that results from freedom. But bully for the complaint, not the acts.

And there's a lot to that statement.

Frankly, almost all the angst over declining birth rates is misplaced.  Some of it isn't, but much of it is.  We're about to enter an era in which there will be much reduced employment in advanced societies, for one thing. Another is that frankly, societies with smaller populations are much nicer to live in, something that politicians in the US don't seem to grasp.  Lots of countries passed the level in which they were really nice to live in some time ago, including for that matter much of the US.  An overall declining population reverses that.

And it doesn't cause economic disaster, as so often predicted.  

At any rate, no matter how a person feels about it, what Adam Smith notes is in fact the case.  Reversing the trend at the present time is darned near impossible.  I think it will reverse, or stabilize, but not during my lifetime.  Probably when, for example, Europe reaches an overall population below 200,000,000, and North America's is about the same.   That's quite a ways off.

I'm not commenting, I'd note, on the moral aspects of this, which is in fact an aspect of it. But in an era in the West, at least, that large sections of the population can no longer actually tell what is naturally male and female, and we're back to the era in which "science" supports a societal movement that's wrong, much like it once did with Eugenics, race science, and many other now despised movements of the past that claimed scientific basis, we're probably not going to see much progress in this area, whatever progress would mean.

Speaking of a country with a declining population, and a tradition of baby bonuses, we have Russia, which gives us this. . . 

Field Wife

Not really a surprise.

'Field Wife': Officers Make Life Hell For Women In Russia's Military, A Female Medic Says

As with all things Russian military, pretty horrific, but with long-standing precedence in the Russian military.

We have a long paused thread on women in armed forces which will be unpopular, but we'd start off with this.  Mistreatment of women in any military is very common.  The conditions are prefect for it.

They're also perfect for giving rise to temptations that are hard to address and are embarrassing to address when they arise.  The U.S. Armed Forces have been working on this for decades, presenting it mostly as a male abuser on female victim situation, which is large true, but it wasn't all that long ago that the Marines had to come in and order female Marines to quit posting nude photos of themselves on line, such as a photo of a group of female Marines stationed in the Middle East running on a beach naked.  Everyone knows where this is going.

Suffice it to say, the circumstances of military life.  In spite of ongoing American hagiography about servicemen, Kipling's 1890 poem Tommy remains just as true for U.S. troops on some things, including this:

We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too, 

But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you; 

An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints, 

Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints; 

This doesn't excuse the conduct, but eradicating it would require eradicating the situation, which we're not going to do.

And we aren't the Russians. The Russians aren't going to do any such thing with their military.

The recent war in Ukraine has shown, to a very large degree, that the Russian Army is the Red Army, and the Red Army was an overrated armed gang for parts of its history, and just overrated when that wasn't true.  It was an armed gang in the immediate post Civil War period, and certainly during the Second War.  Its aura of greatness was heavily impacted by Soviet propaganda.  In reality, rape was a common thing once it crossed out of Soviet territory and the taking of "field wives" very common.  So much so that it was a major source of domestic strife in the post-war Soviet Union, as men's actual wives knew that their husbands had engaged in both behaviors.

Believing that your enemy is impressive is wise, but in realty, the Red Army was not all that good in the Cold War, and the Russian Army isn't now.

We'll get back around to the Russian Army momentarily.  Sticking with our current theme. . . 

Exploitation suit dismissed.

I was going to report on this headline some time ago.

Olivia Hussey, then 15 and now 71, and Leonard Whiting, then 16 now 72, filed the suit in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging sexual abuse, sexual harassment and fraud.

This in regard to their nude scenes in Romeo & Juliet.

They basically alleged that they were told that nudity they posed for would not actually be shown, when Hussey's breasts briefly were, and Whiting's butt was as well, and that they suffered years of shame as a result.  The suit sought punitive damages for an act which was illegal, at the time, under California's law, but which obviously nobody did anything about at the time.  They were asking for $100 million in punitive damages, but theoretically could receive more than $500 million to match what the film has earned since 1968, apparently.

If you are wondering how this could be brought now, California temporarily suspended the statute of limitations for older claims of child sexual abuse, which expired at the end of 2022.

This is an interesting development for a number of reasons.

One is that the nude scenes were noted at the time, but obviously, nothing was done about it.  Indeed, while the scenes noted above are the ones that have been picked up by the press, Hussey's also had at least one scene in which she rolls over while inclined, exposing her full bare back and rear.  At least one poster for the movie depicts an illustration of a nude Hussey on a nude Whiting, although you can't see the generally forbidden features.

This film isn't really unique in this regard.   A little later, but not much, a genuinely shocking scene was included in 1976's Ode To Bobby Joe, which is an overall horrifically bad film, but which had some popularity at the time.  The whole film is incredibly stupid, but it also features a nearly nude scene. The actors were in fact in their majority when it was filmed, but they're portraying, at least in the case of the female lead, underage teenagers.  It's really pretty sick overall.  

And recently, because of her bringing it back up, the public has had the opportunity to ponder the films Pretty Baby and The Blue Lagoon.  Ick.

If nothing else tells us something about the moral depravity of the late 60s and the entire 1970s.

Anyhow, I don't know much about Whiting, but Hussey went on to be a famous actress, somewhat discrediting the claim that they subsequently lost roles.  Indeed, given the moral climate of the late 60s and entire 70s, I doubt it.  Her career actually goes back to 1964, at which time she was very clearly still a child, and she was cast as the Virgin Mary in 1977, when she still would have been quite young.  Interesting, FWIW, her age in Romeo & Juliet would have been closer to what Mary's is speculated to have been at the time of the birth of Jesus, but the point is that her reputation hadn't been so tarnished as to keep her from getting the role of the most significant of all the female saints.

Oddly, FWIW, my high school English teacher, who later was arrested and convicted on what we might call a morals charge, didn't like her portrayal of the Virgin Mary, but did like the portrayal in Romeo & Juliet, in part due to his perception that her depictions in both were juvenile.

I haven't seen Jesus of Nazareth, that latter film, and I've only seen part of Romeo & Juliet.  I don't like Romeo & Juliet, the play, as it strikes me as boring and juvenile, and the parts of the movie I've seen, years ago, struck me as boring at the time.

Hussey also portrayed, Mother Teresa in a 2003 television movie,

Anyway, I feel they were exploited, if they brought their suit to address it a bit late. The California judge did not, stating that they, "have not put forth any authority showing the film here can be deemed to be sufficiently sexually suggestive as a matter of law to be held to be conclusively illegal.”

Too bad, in my view.

Maybe just bringing it to light, however, served an overall good purpose.

Let's go back to topics Slavic.

Where's the offensive?

In much of the Northern Hemisphere, it's late Spring, and we were expecting a Ukrainian offensive.

Well, maybe we'll get one, or maybe not (we probably will), but what seems to be the case is that spring came late to Ukraine, and everything is really muddy.  Therefore, the Rasputitia is still ongoing.

The Ukrainians, in the meantime, are using the time, it appears, to their training and logistical advantage.

Without getting into it too deeply, the Ukrainians also seem to have managed to cause the Russians to fight a 2023 version of the Battle of Khe Sanh.

Speaking of things with a long past. . . 

Charles the Third, by the Grace of God King of Canada and His other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth.’

Canada has changed the honorifics for the King, or Queen.  

The late Queen was known as ‘Queen Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom, Canada and Her other Realms and Territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith.

Changing the titles of people in this fashion says something.  And in this case, not something good.

Last prior edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVI . To what extent is that new?

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя

April 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Бездоріжжя, mud season.

It stopped fighting on the Eastern Front during World War Two, and it bogged down the Russians last year in Ukraine. 

We ought to be in it now.

The much feared Russian spring offensive was a flop.  Much of the intense fighting took place in and around Bakmut, which is now effectively destroyed, but in spite of a titanic efforts, including the expenditure of many Wagner Group lives, it still isn't fully in Russian hands.  Russia is dragging early Cold War armor out of storage while the Ukrainian army is taking receipt of new Western armor.

Everyone expects a Ukrainian offensive in the near term. That may determine the outcome of the war.

A not too surprising item on the Russian forces:

April 7, 2023

Israel v. Hamas

Hamas fired rockets into Israel from Lebanon yesterday, and Israel retaliated with air strikes.

United States v. Taliban

The U.S. released its report on the withdrawal from Afghanistan:

U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

April 9, 2023

Israel v. Hamas

Events repeated as six more rockets were fired from Syrian territory towards Israel, only two of which entered Israeli territory.  Israel responded with artillery fire, then an air strike.  Hamas is indicating it intends to deescalate the situation.

China v. Taiwan

China has been menacing the Taiwanese coasts with aircraft in the modern version of saber-rattling, upset by Speaker McCarthy's visit to Taiwan.

April 10, 2023

Pope Francis addressed the Russo Ukrainian War and the situation involving the Isreali's and Palestinians in an Easter homily.

Russo Ukrainian War

The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

April 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

For some days now, the news has been circulating that: 

The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

I haven't discussed here what those reports reveal, as it hasn't been very clear to me.  By and large, most of the information I've seen related to the leaks simply confirms news that had already been circulating, something that; 1) makes you wonder to what extent this was leaking before, and 2) makes you wonder if this is really a deception campaign. 

Indeed, on the latter, the Ukrainians have been remarkably adept at keeping their own plans secret.  Having said that, this would be a U.S. leak and Americans are phenomenally bad at keeping anything secret, which is one of the reasons the theory that the US has been keeping details of extraterrestrials secret for eighty years is absurd. We couldn't have kept that secret for thirty days.

Anyhow, more recent news stories have stated a couple of things that are of interest and haven't really been revealed before, and they're worth mentioning.

One is that the US is under equipping the Ukrainians.  We've put a lot of military hardware in their hands, but we have yet to make use of the Lend Lease bill that Congress passed and really get them everything we could.  As a result, there are real reasons to doubt that they could mount a successful Spring offensive.  And in some areas, we desperately undersupply them in critical weapons.

Another is a host of NATO armies do have boots on the ground, including the U.S.  The numbers are minuscule, with the country with the most, the UK, having less than 20 at any one time.

These are no doubt advisers, and I'd frankly wondered.  It makes sense that they'd be there, and now we know that they are.

A video is circulating of Russian soldiers beheading captured members of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.  On the video, they can be heard saying "mercenaries".

April 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Washington Post reports the intelligence news leaks came from Thug Shaker Central Discord server and the person releasing them is a member, "OG", who works for U.S. intelligence in some capacity.

April 13, cont.

A1C Jack Teixeira, 21 years of age and a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was arrested in connection with the intelligence leaks described above.

April 16, 2023

Sudan

Sudanese government and paramilitary forces have been engaged in heavy fighting in the nation's capital over the past couple of days.

Russo Ukrainian War

The war is beginning to have peculiar domestic impacts inside of Russia.

A debate over migration from Central Asia has commenced, with backers wanting to nearly triple immigration into Russia to stabilize a crashing population. This has sparked a reaction in that opponents are accusing the backers of wanting to basically sell out Russians to Central Asian cultures.

In the meantime, advertisements are now appearing on Russian television for Russian women to move to China as brides.

Russia is introducing conscription via electronic notices.

April 23, 2023

Sudan

The U.S. Embassy staff has been evacuated from Sudan and civilians are leaving the country.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.

The Russian military is attempting to pressure Putin to go to defensive operations.

Russian authorities are oppressing Catholics in occupied areas, most recently occupying the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in occupied Berdyansk, accusing the priests there of hiding weapons.

April 24, 2023

Sudan

The US and UK airlifted their embassy staffs out of the country in military operations.

April 25, 2023

Sudan

Rival factions vying for control of the country, mostly through fighting in its capital Khartoum, have agreed to a US brokered three day ceasefire.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine apparently had planned deep strikes inside of Russia on the anniversary of the invasion of the country, including on Moscow, but were restrained from doing so by the US.

Such an effort would likely have been a waste of munitions and only served to unite Russians more completely behind Putin.

April 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian ship that carries rescue submarines was photographed near the location of the Nord Stream gas pipeline prior to its explosion last September.

Hmmm. . . 

Ukrainian drones hit a Russian fuel depot in Crimea.

Sudan

The U.S. has evacuated private citizens from Sudan.

There's been some medial criticism that the US hasn't treated the situation in Sudan the same way it has the war in Ukraine. But how would it?  Intervene in a civil war?

May 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US believes that the Russians have sustained100,000 causalities, including 80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed, in the Battle of Bakhmut.  Half of the 20,000 dead were Wagner Group troops.

May 3, 2023

United States/Mexican Border

Not a war, but the US will deploy 1,500 troops on the border as Covid era emergency restrictions come off.

This is a topic for another post, but the problems with illegal immigration across the border are something the US just hasn't had the stomach or foresight to really deal with. Given the level of illegal immigration, and its deep existential nature, the time to do so, if its not going to amount to simply ordering the border and fundamentally changing the nature of the country by giving up on having any immigration controls at all, is right now.

Russo Ukrainian War

Trains have been targeted by blown rails in Crimea the last two days, a classic sabotage, resistance move, although in this instance it appears to be via drones.

May 4, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

The Kremlin was attacked, oddly and ineffectively, by two drones. The respected ISW suspects this was a Russian false flag operation.

May 5, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

Russia asserted the absurd hypothesis that the US was behind the drone strikes on the Kremlin.

More and more Russia looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group claimed he is pulling his troops out of Bakhmut next week.  A feud between the group and the Russian forces over supplies has been running for several days.

May 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears that the Wagner Group will pull out of Bakhmut and that it will be replaced by Chechens.

At this point, the Wagner Group may have been effectively eliminated as a fighting force. 

Chechens haven't really been put to the test, but it's worth noting that dissident Chechens are already fighting for Ukraine.

May 11, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia had a much scaled down Victory Day celebration, that annual event in which Russia pretends the USSR single-handedly defeated its former ally Nazi Germany. This year's event featured a single tank, that being a World War Two vintage T-24.  Putin delivered a speech in which he acted as if the attempted rape of Ukraine was a war against the entire West, and the West's fault.

This parade does point out something we've noted before, that being that one of Russia's great liabilities in the modern era is believing that it won World War Two.  It did not.  Nor did the USSR do it single-handedly.  In reality, the USSR fought with millions of men who were not Russian, along with millions of Russians, most of whom were conscripted, and whom signficant numbers of which deserted and defected to the Nazis in spite of all that the Nazis fought for.  Moreover, this would have been a good parade to thrown an American made Sherman or British made Churchill tank into, sybolizing the extent to which the Soviets were saved by Western Allied materials.

How the Soviets,  and by extension the Russians, came to see themselves.  In reality the wool in the uniform may have come from the US, the steel nad munitions that supported his artillery did as well, when those jack boots wore out he may have worn service shoes, and he definately dug into SPAM for rations from time to time.

Putin may imagine himself at war with the West, or state it as propganda, but in reality, the Soviets were Allies of Western fascism in the form of Nazism, until attacked by it, at which point they were saved, in no small part, by the Western democracies.

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin used the occasion to mock Putin, which is a bit surprising, even though Prigozhin has been outspoken in his discontent.  Indeed, I'd regard it as dangerous even if Russian forces need Wagner's wholly disposable troops. Those troops, however, are now not going to be withdrawn from Bakhmut, that whole episode apparently being theater of some sort.

Russia has been engaging in large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine.  Drone attacks are being attempted as well, but Ukraine is having a lot of success in shooting drones down.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 3. Spring Storms.

Related threads:

The Air National Guard and other comments in the context of the classified leak

Prisoners of Myth I. The Russians in the war with Ukraine

The Truth About Russia’s AK-12 - is it over hyped?

A video on the AK 12 made just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The AK 12 is the newest, 5.45, version of the AK-47 and it's commonly seen in Russian hands.  It's also now not infrequently seen in Ukrainian hands, although most Ukrainians are armed with AKMs or AK-74s.  Frankly, in spite of early efforts to really overhaul it, it's basically an AK-74 with Picitinny rails which allows it to accept optics more easily.

According to this, the intended Russian optics are bad, which would be typical for Russian optics.

 

In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes

Did Ukraine Change your Mind about Russian Tanks? @TheChieftainsHatch

Prisoners of Myth I. The Russians in the war with Ukraine

How the Soviets,  and by extension the Russians, came to see themselves.  In reality the wool in the uniform may have come from the US, the steel nad munitions that supported his artillery did as well, when those jack boots wore out he may have worn service shoes, and he definately dug into SPAM for rations from time to time.

The danger of believing myths is that some become ahistorical.  

Not all, but some.

Which points out while studying history is so important.

Myth itself is something that's not existentially bad.  Cultures create myths for a reason, with that reason stretching back into antiquity.  The earliest human beings created myths, as their entire historical memory was oral.  Current events were reduced to stories, and the stories remembered through telling, with them evolving into myths over time.  For that reason, myths are often surprisingly accurate. There really was a Troy that the Greeks waged war upon. . . the Apaches and the Navajo had really once lived in a region where there were great white bears, you get the point.

The problem becomes that myth making can become a coping mechanism for a culture as well.  And that can become enormously dangerous to that culture in some instances.  The Germans adopting the theory that they hadn't been defeated on the battlefield in World War One, which they had been, lead them to adopt a "stabbed in the back" theory that lead directly to World War Two.  The myth of the "Lost Cause" resulted in rank and file Southerners forgetting that they'd gone to war over slavery and had been outright defeated on the battlefield with a huge percentage of Southern soldiers deserting before the war's end, resulting partially in the preservation of formal institutional racism well into the second half of the 20th Century.  The myth of the Stolen Election is corrupting American Conservatism and the Republican Party right now.

Russia, likewise, went into Ukraine believing in a set of myths, with one overarching myth, and its paying the price for it.

Modern Russia and the Myth of World War Two.

• The basic myth.

At some point during World War Two itself the Soviet Union started telling the myth that the USSR, alone in its fight against Nazi Germany, and supported only weakly by two untrustworthy and cowardly allies, the US and the UK defeated the Germans.

Not hardly.

But this myth, or versions of it, became all pervasive in the USSR and are still believed in Russia today.  Indeed, amazingly enough, versions of this myth became relatively common, in a different form, in the West.

It's simply not true.

Now eighty years after the fact, the history of the Second World War is starting to be more accurately told, stripped away of many of its myths, including this one.  Let's flatly state the truth of the matter here.

The Soviet Union, following its own self interests, was an occasional defacto Axis ally from 1939 until the spring of 1941.  In that capacity, it helped the Germans subjugate continental Western Europe, but the Germans were unable to defeat the British.  Unable to do just that, Germany turned its eye on Soviet resources, which the USSR was well aware it was going, and the two nations bargained on greater German access to them.  Stalin overplayed his hand and sought a post-war position from Germany, at the expense of the British Empire, which was too much for the German's to agree to, and the Germans, contemptuous of the Slavs in any event, were ready to break off the effort and go to war with the USSR, the heir to Imperial Russia, which the Germans had defeated in 1917.

The German invasion came in June 1941.  The Red Army made some heroic stands in the summer and fall of 1941, but by and large it was thrown back in defeat.  The real Soviet achievement in 41 was not being outright defeated, but it was thrown back again, on a massive scale, in 1942.  Only in the winter of 1942 did the Soviet fortunes turn, but it would take titanic efforts and massive loss of life in order for the Germans to be pushed back and ultimately defeated.

Added to that, much of the Red Army was simply never very good.  Materially, the Soviets were unable to supply their own army adequately, and that fell to the UK and the US in large part.  Only 55 to 60 percent of the Red Army was Russian, with the balance being made up of other ethnicities, including large numbers of Ukrainians, 7,000,000 of whom served in the Red Army. At no point whatsoever did the Soviets ever fight, moreover, alone.  There was always a "second" or even third and fourth front which was manned by other Western Allies alone.

• The actual truth

It's odd to think of the myth of the invincibility of the Red Army when it's also so commonly known that the Soviet state spent so much time destroying it after the Civil War.

Contrary to the way we came to imagine it, the USSR did not spend a lot of time trying to become a military titan before World War Two.  The Reds, not without good reason, somewhat feared what an effective standing army would mean to its political leadership.  People have often been mystified by the purges of the Red Army, but in context they made sense.  After the fighting of the civil war had ended, the only powers powerful enough to challenge the Communists core running the country were in the Red Army, or in other established Communists.  Both took a pounding during the purges.  Indeed, while it hardly justifies murder, it's far to ask if Stalin would have been able to remain in control of the country if political opponents like Trotsky had run around unaddressed, or if powerful military leaders had not been done away with.

Added to that, the Russian armies, and it's fair to use the plural, that we have as examples in the 1900 to 1941 time period were bad.  The Japanese had defeated the Imperial Russian Army in 1905, the same army in World War One did not turn in a stellar performance.  The Whites and the Reds did fight each other tooth and nail during the Civil War, but all civil wars tend to work that way.  The Soviets did well in some of the Russo Polish War but were ultimately defeated, and thereafter they lived in mortal fear of hte Poles, and the Romanians, even though logic would dictate that neither country was capable of being a serious military threat to the Soviet Union.

And, of note, it's clear that the Russians still fear the Poles today.

The USSR was fought to a standstill in the Winter War with Finland just before World War Two. And only in the final months leading up to June, 1941, did the Soviets undertake a real effort to build a capable modern army.  It had some raw elements of that, including some good armor and aircraft designs, but it also had a weakened military institution with no NCO corps and a murdered officer corps.  It realy wasn't able to fix this, and nobody would be, prior to the German invasion.

What the Soviets did have was a  massive amount of territory and a leader in singular control.  

What it also had on 1941 was a British Empire that was already fighting the Germans, with ground combat having been going on in North Africa since June 1940.  The German invasion of the USSR was the second front, or the third if the Battle of the Atlantic is considered.

The UK was already receiving substantial US material, and frankly military, support well before Barbarossa, but the British were a major military materials producer itself.  Both the US and the UK immediately started to offer the Soviets material support.  It would take months before it really began to arrive, but of note, it took months as well for the Red Army to become really effective.

During the war, that aid would become enormous.  The US supplied 400,000 vehicles to the Soviets, changing what had been a horse-drawn army into a mostly vehicle transport one.  Studebaker's 6x6 trucks were for all practical purposes a dedicated Soviet truck, not even entering the US military in substantial numbers.  14,000 aircraft were supplied to the Soviets, including some, like Studebaker trucks, that were essentially models dedicated to Soviet use.  13,000 US tanks were supplied, with additional numbers of British tanks also being supplied.

15,000,000 pairs of Army service shoes, the legendary U.S. Munson Last boot, were supplied to the Red Army. If you see a photo of a Soviet soldier wearing lace up boots, those are almost certainly US made ones.

107,000 tons of cotton went to the USSR for their use.  2,700,000 tons of petroleum products.  4,500,000 tons of food were supplied.

An entire Ford tire factor was supplied.

80% of the copper used by the USSR during the war came from the US and UK.  55% of the aluminum.  

Immediately after the war, before the myth really set in, Soviet sources outright admitted that the USSR could not have fought without lend lease supplies. As late as 1963 a Soviet marshal was known to have stated the same.

The Western Allies, of course, provided this for their own purposes.  It was not charity.  The Soviets were always reticent to some degree to really acknowledge it at that.  But its important to note that the option not to provide it existed.

That would have been risky, which is in part why the leaders of the Western Allies were so ready to engage in it.  The Soviets were a known potential enemy, but the Germans were a present actual enemy.  Prior to June 1941, the British had gone it alone, but they had been fighting a defensive war the entire time.  It was possible to imagine a Germany, particularly one that made some sort of accommodation to the Soviet Union, consolidating gains in Europe to the point where it would have been impossible for the British to ever dislodge them.  Even after December 7, 1941, that remained a possibility.  The Western Allies needed the Soviets in the fight, just as the Soviets needed the Western Allies in order to fight.  The Patrick Buchanan view that the Western Allies should have allowed the USSR and Nazi Germany to destroy each other is wrongheaded, as chances are good that the Germans would have forced the Soviets into a peace of some sort that secured southern Russian materials and left Germany in a position basically impossible to deal with.  Having said that, at the same time, it's not impossible either to imagine the Soviets getting to that point.

It was, after all, the Russians who had given up in the Russo Japanese War and who had collapsed in World War One. And the Soviets, who had been defeated by the Poles after the Great War. And the Soviets, who had accommodated in the Winter War, after invading Finland.  Throughout World War Two, Stalin worried about the Western Allies reaching a separate peace, but that may have really  revealed more about Soviet thinking than anything else.  The Western Allies had fought the Germans to the bitter end in 1914-1918, which the Russians had not.

Moreover, for all its self-congratulatory propaganda.

Additionally, or all its self-congratulatory propaganda, the Soviet casualty list does not suggest what it might.  Massive Red Army losses in World War Two were in no small part self-inflicted, reflecting a poorly formed army that was badly trained and lacking a NCO corps.  It also reflected a leadership that was completely immune to concern over human losses, truly viewing Soviet soldiers as cannon fodder.  The German view as quite similar.  The fighting on the Eastern Front was in part savage, as the two armies engaged had leadership which didn't really care about high losses as long as goals seemed obtainable.  The Western Allies did not fight this way as, being from democratic societies, they could not contemplate using their citizenry in such a callous fashion.

Additionally, and seemingly completely missed by Soviet propaganda, the Western Allies went int alone on the seas, with the Soviet Navy being largely irrelevant the entire war.  While the Soviet Union had a navy, it didn't really matter, which effectively means that in a war fought on the land, air, and sea, the Soviets only fought on two out of the three.

And, as earlier noted, the Soviets were latecomers to the war and, in fact, had been on the other side early on.  If the US and UK did not take such massive losses, it was because, as noted, that they didn't fight that way.  They were, however, fighting, and fighting in more areas than the USSR was.  They were not, of course, fighting on their own ground, however, which does make a real difference.

And it goes beyond that.

Over 7,000,000 Red Army troops were Ukrainians, as noted, with indigenous Poles, Turkic peoples, and others filling the Red Army ranks.  But around 1,000,000 Soviet citizens provided aid to the Germans during the war as well.

This is a complicated story, as that aid varied in nature substantially.  The most pronounced anti-Soviet variants of it might be found in Cossack elements that went over wholesale to the Germans and who served on the Eastern Front, the Western Front, and in the Balkans.  But they were not alone.  Other Soviet citizens willingly took up arms with the Germans and fought against the Moscow.  Others, particularly in Ukraine, fought against the Soviets and the Germans, reprising the odd role of the Ukrainian Greens of the Russian Civil War who fought against the Reds and the Whites. Large numbers of Red Army POWs joined Vlasov's White Russian Army, but probably did so out of a desire simply to survive the ordeal of being a German POW.  

Soviet civilians aided the Germans in varying ways as well.  The examples are too numerous not to take note of, with Soviet civilians providing all sorts of minor aid and comfort to the Germans in spite of the fact that the Germans were barbaric towards Soviet citizens, visiting death and rape upon them at a scale that was too large not to be regarded as institutionally sanctioned.  Indeed, early on Russians and Belorussians greeted the Germans as liberators, with their view largely changing due to German barbarism.  Ukrainians greeted the Germans with bread and salt, a traditional Ukrainian greeting.  They, too, came to change their views under German repression.

• Bringing the myth forward.

After the war, and even by its late stages, the Soviets were developing a myth that they had won World War Two basically on their own.  Their leadership knew better, which showed itself even as late as the 1980s, when the Soviets lived in real fear of a NATO attack upon the Soviet Union.  But the myth has solidified, and it's showing itself now.

The logical question would be why such a myth would have been developed and fostered.  There are, however, a series of reasons for that.

All nations have foundational myths that are central to their identify in a way.  The American one dates back essentially to the Revolution, and was redefined by the Civil War, giving the country the foundational story of rising up against tyranny, which isn't really true, to form a self-governing democratic republic with a unique mission in the world. The Australian one involves a history of mistreatment by the British culminating in the disaster of Gallipoli, which in truth the Australians were only one nation involved in a much larger Allied effort. Other examples could be given.

The Soviet Union going into World War Two already had the Russian Revolution, but the imposition of Communism on the Russian Empire had not been universally accepted by any means, and various peoples struggled against it into the 1930s.  The USSR had only been saved from defeat by the support of Western, capitalist, nations during World War Two, after it had first conspired with the fascist Nazi Germany, for its own reasons.  During the war, large percentages of its population, in spite of massive Nazi barbarism, had sided with the Germans, and resistance movements went on in the country until the late 1940s.  A myth of a Great Patriotic War, as the Soviets came to call it, served to counter all of that.

The modern Russian Army is not the Red Army.  For one thing, it lacks the huge number of Ukrainians that the Red Army had.  But the Red Army, without the West, was never all that good.  It was bad going into World War Two, and it survived World War Two thanks to the West.  After the war, it continued to rely on Western technology for a time, in the form of purchased Western material, and in the form of acquired German knowledge, but over the decades it had to go over to simply acquiring it however they could, and often they simply did not.

The current Russian Army retains all the vices of the old, plus one more.  Its equipment is antiquated and poor.  Its leadership is bad.  

And it believes that it was invincible during World War Two, forgetting that it wasn't defeated due to Western support, the very thing Ukraine is getting now.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.

October 4, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

When this war started, I never thought, several months later, we'd be seriously looking at a situation in which Ukrainian forces stood a chance of completely driving the Russian military out of territory that Russia has been occupying since 2014.

Nor, frankly, had anyone else.

But it's begging to look as if they might.  Indeed, it's more likely than not.

This is an example of Western military training, Ukrainian resolve, and the fact that the Russian army sucks, and always has, exercising its influence. Ukraine, it appears, is about to triumph in its second offensive in less than a month, and this one stands to expel the Russians from Ukraine,

Which means that a desperate Putin, who has painted himself into a corner, may be about to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Not until this past week would I have made that statement.  But I am now.  The man is unhinged from reality, and has left himself no choice, other than to act in a decent moral fashion or a manifestly evil one. But as observers of history and politics well know, at some point some people have so sold their souls such that the truth and morality no longer have any meaning.

Putin may have sold his soul long ago that reality no longer matters to him.

It won't work, but we're about to enter, maybe, the most slippery slope we have since . . . well ever.  More slippery than the Cuban Missile Crisis, and certainly slipperier than Able Archer.

When, um I mean if, Putin orders the use of tactical nuclear weapons, NATO will reply in force, by destroying Russian ground assets in Ukraine and naval assets in the Black Sea, which may then mean that the current war expands, possibly, into a general European war.  And if this war has proven anything, it's that the Russian military is so incredibly bad it won't be able to do anything whatsoever about it.

Of course, I suppose, it could retaliate with nuclear weapons, which I don't think it will, but which is a possibility of course.

At any rate, at this point, Russia appears to be very badly losing the war against Ukraine on territory that voted to leave Russia in 1991 but which Putin's Russia has been seeking to reclaim, and partially had.  Now, Putin's miscalculated war, whose calculations were based on the Russian army amounting to something as it last had . . . well never, seems to be going completely amiss.  Putin has left, however, his country very little choice.  He can't negotiate because he's declared the territory to be part of Mother Russia, and he can't win, as the Russian army is as bad as it has ever been.  The only thing he has left, as noted, are nuclear weapons.

Remarkably, Western military analysts do not seem particularly scared even while acknowledging the possibility, which should give us some comfort. Having long pondered a low yield nuclear war, they seem comfortable with one occurring, with only one side using them.

Let's hope it doesn't occur, and that God may help us all.

Господи, помоги нам всем.

Слава Україні!

Oct 4, cont:

Perhaps coincidentally, reports this morning report the movement of weapons from a nuclear missile unit, although at least in a Western army, such weapons would not be tactical nuclear weapons.  And Russian ballistic missile was deployed in the Arctic.  If these reports are correct, they are likely meant as warnings to the west, which won't and shouldn't be heeded.

Elon Musk, who proposed a peace plan on Twitter, received an enormous backlash, including from Ukrainian officials.  He called Crimea part of Russia since the 1780s, and uniting it "Khrushchev's mistake".  His plan also called for a UN administered vote on succession of those areas recently claimed to be annexed by Russia.

It was in fact conquered by the Russian Empire in 1783, but it had a distinct ethnic nature at the time.  It was its own political subdivision inside the Soviet Union, although many Crimean Tartars were deported by the USSR after World War Two. It voted to leave Russia and join Ukraine in 1991 and had the status of a political subdivision until invaded and occupied by the Russians in 2014.

Musk has been taking a lot of flak on Twitter recently. This comes just after a spat with economist Robert Reich.

Oct 4, cont:

Washington Post headline from today:

Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts

October 5, 2022

Putin signed the annexation order on the partially occupied territories yesterday.

October 5, 2022 cont.

The Ukrainians have broken through at Svatove in Luhansk.  Basically, the Russians are coming unglued.

October 8, 2022

A giant truck explosion has damaged the Crimea Bridge, the only land route over the Black Sea to Crimea.

October 9, 2022

Sergei Surovikin, who previously led Russian forces in Syria, has been placed in command of the effort in Ukraine.   He'd also previously led the Russian effort in southern Ukraine.  Recently, he's been in command of Russia's air and space assets.

October 10, 2022

Russia's reply to the truck bombing of the Crimea Bridge has been a missile offensive on Ukrainian targets, many of which are simply civilian targets.

Russia has effectively reverted to the practices of the Second World War in regard to target acquisition.  I've noted it before here, but I regard the targeting of civilian targets from the air, by anybody, during World War Two to have been criminal in nature.  Collateral damage, unfortunately, is another matter.

There's no excuse whatsoever for it now.

The truck bombing remains of unclear origin.  Nobody has said anything to this effect, but it appears to likely have been a suicide bombing, which is generally out of character for the Ukrainian war effort. Some Russian sources feel that it included Russian dissident elements in its organization, and it may have.  It may very well have been an independent or semi-independent act.

October 11, 2022

Iran

Widespread protests in Iran have extended to the nation's refineries.

Russo Ukrainian War

A second day of Russian missile attacks is ongoing in Ukraine, as the Russians do the only thing they seem capable of, lashing out at Ukraine in general.

Russian cyberterrorists launched a cyberattack on U.S. airports yesterday.

October 13, 2022

Uniting two pariah states in one war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are training Russian troops on the use of Ukrainian drones, inside of territory occupied by the Russians in Ukraine.

All the while, protests are spreading in Iran against its government over its treatment of women, effectively, and the loss of life of women at the hands of Iranian authorities.

October 15, 2022

Russia has suspended additional recalls/levies, having brought 220,000 men into service.  260,000 Russian men have fled the country.  It appears that conscription/recall was one more thing the Russian government was unable to effectively manage.

October 15, cont.

Two volunteer Russian soldiers, from a former part of the Soviet Union, opened up on their fellow trainees today in Russia, killing eleven of them.

Which gives credence to my theory that the Crimea bridge bombing fits into the long history of auxiliary regional warfare.  I.e, I think that will turn out to be the work of Georgians, or Armenians, or Azerbaijan's, rather than Ukrainians.

All of which means Russia is starting to encounter the fruits of its prior repressions in the current attempt to annex and subjugate Ukraine.

October 16, 2022

Ukrainian orchestra conductor Yuri Kerpatenko, Керпатенко Юрій Леонідович, was murdered by Russian soldiers for refusing to perform in an orchestra performance hosted by the Russian in Kherson Oblast.

The Russians are well on their way to making themselves the Nazis of the early 21st Century.  And I do mean the Russians, not Putin.  Just as the crime of Nazi Germany have tainted the Germans ever since, so will the crimes of the Putinist taint Russia, lest it do something to stop them from carrying on.

October 18, 2022

Russia has hit Kyiv with numerous suicide drones, part of an overall missile and drone attack on Ukrainian population centers.

More and more Russia of 2022 actions like Germany of 1939-1945.

Ethnic tensions among Russian recruits resulted in Tajik soldiers killing Russian compatriots in Belogorod.  Their commander had insulted Islam and claimed the invasion of Ukraine a holy war.

This is interesting in that Russia has rapidly reached a state of demoralization within its Army which has surpassed that experienced by the United States during the Vietnam War and which should be a sign that its army may simply come apart.

October 19, 2022

Iran

A Persian edition of the British newspaper The Telegraph ran an article on how to use handguns.  It must be noted that given the UK's position on firearms, that's rather ironic.

Protests are spreading and children are now included in them.  Factions appear to be developing in the government. 

Russo Ukrainian War

It has been confirmed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are in Crimea as training cadre on Iranian drones, as their own country edges towards a revolution which would leave them as permanent guests of Putin's regime.

The last two days, the Russians have been targeting Ukrainian infrastructure with missile and drone strikes.

The Russians are evacuating Kherson.

October 21, 2022

Conor Kennedy, the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, is apparently just back from the war after having served in the Ukrainian Legion.

By his own account, his time in the war was fairly short, although he reports that he liked being a soldier.

The Russians are withdrawing from Kherson. It is believed that they may attempt to blow up a substantial dam in the region in order to cover their withdrawal.

October 22, 2022

Russia is trying to evacuate civilians from Kherson while also pouring in conscripts, fodder for the cannons.

October 24, 2022

From The Pilar interview with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I:

The Russian-Ukraine War is a conflict largely between Eastern Orthodox Christians. How do you feel about this as the spiritual leader of the world’s Eastern Orthodox Christians?

The ongoing war waged by Russia into the sovereign territory of Ukraine has weighed heavily on our mind and heart in recent months. It is true that it has been characterized as Orthodox fratricide, although the consequences have reached many more people, including Ukrainian Catholics as well as other Christian and religious believers, and the repercussions have surely been felt throughout the world.

What is still more painful to us is the fact that the Patriarchate of Moscow has stooped to the level of submitting to political ambitions of the Russian Federation, even endorsing and seemingly blessing this cruel invasion and unjustifiable bloodshed. We have repeatedly condemned the aggression and violence, just as we have fervently and fraternally appealed to the Patriarch of Moscow that he separate himself from political crimes, even if it means stepping down from his throne.

October 25, 2022

Myanmar

The government launched an airstrike on a celebration by the Kachin Independence Organization in the northern state of Kachin, killing at least 80 individuals.

The air force is equipped principally with Russian and Chinese aircraft.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian diplomats have been yapping about Ukraine preparing to use a "dirty bomb", which it isn't. The fact that they're doing this, however, is raising a lot of speculation about the purpose of this Kremlin story.  Something is going on.

It's now clear the recent annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia has caused a split in the Kremlin, with some Russian figures reaching out to the west to try to start negotiations.

October 25, cont.

The US has been hitting Al Shabaab targets in Somalia, including one earlier this week.  The one earlier this week was in support of Somali National Army forces.

October 30, 2022

Expanding the drone war, Ukrainian naval drones hit a Russian cruiser yesterday.  Russia called off the grain deal in retaliation.

The drone attack was by a group of drones, showing how naval war is rapidly evolving.  Effectively, such vessels take the place of PT boats, when PT boats were still viable.

General Alexander Lapin has been relieved of his command of the central area Russian forces in Ukraine.

At least where I live, the World Series, being run on Fox, is featuring a television commercial opposing US aid to Ukraine in the current war.

November 2, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

The Wagner Group is attempting to recruit fromer Afghan National Army refugee commandos who have taken refuge in Afghanistan.  They are resistant to recruitmant, but fear being deported to Afghanistan.

According to the NYT, Soviet commanders recently discussed the topic of the use of nuclear weapons.  This without Putin.

This is probably not cause for undue alarm, but it is cause for alarm.  Americans might wish to recall that this occured in our military in the 50s and 60s, and it was politicians that percluded their use by frustrated commanders.

North Korea

North Korea, the diapered baby of nations, fired 23 missles into the sea this week.

It's hard to know why this isolated Stalinist theme park does these things, other than to get attention.  Whatever it is, it doesn't work.  Indeed, the Communist Clown State risks somebody taking it seriously at which point its ongoing existance, or at least that of its leadership, stands to become iffy.

November 3, 2022

Uniting both of the topics above, North Korea is supplying artillery shells to Russia.

Yesterday it launched an ICBM over Japan.

November 8, 2022

Ukranian President Zelensky expressed an openess to peace talks with Russia, on Ukrainian terms, those being:

One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again

This is not insignificant, although its likely to be dismissed as being so.  At least the condition of war crimes trials is likely to be bargained away.  This may be an actual bid to open talks, done with Western backing.

Where it would lead is another matter.  Maybe Ukrainian territorial integrity, but combined with a promise not to join NATO.

November 9, 2022

While there are fears it may be a ruse, the Russians appear to be withdrawing from Kherson in advance of a Ukrainian offensive.

Do so is wise in light of their inability to defend it, but also telling.  Kherson was taken early in the current war and Ukraine will soon advance back to the Dneipr.

November 10, 2022

The United States estimates that both Russia and Ukraine has sustained over 100,000 casualties in the current war.

Note, that's casualties, not deaths.

November 11, 2022

The Ukrainians are in Kherson and will very soon have retaken the complete left bank fo the Dnipr.  This is an epic Russian defeat, and the Ukrainians will be in striking distance of Crimea.

Prior Related Threads:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Seven

Culpability for murder.