September 1, 2022
Sasha, age 9, with prosthetic giving the Ukrainian trident salute. She lost her arm due to a Russian attack.Whatever Russia's excuses for invading a neighboring country that doesn't wish to be part of it may be, taking off the arms of children as part of the cause is beyond any excuse. Live URL Link from: https://twitter.com/DefenceU
Russian propaganda is attempting to portray Ukraine's long anticipated offensive has having already failed, which it has not.
The Ukrainian government, in contrast, is observing operational silence, and requesting that media sources abstain from predicting Ukrainian moves.
September 2, 2022
The Taliban has arrested a woman for defamation for accusing her husband, the former Taliban interior minister, of forced marriage and rape.
The charge by the entity which the United States allowed to take power due to Donald Trump's Doha agreement followed by our withdrawal under President Biden was based on the Taliban position that nobody is allowed to defame the Taliban.
September 2, cont
Israel struck a Syrian runway yesterday.
September 3, 2022
The United States is selling $1,100,000,000 in arms to Taiwan
September 5, 2022
The Ukrainians liberated Vysokopilla in Kherson Oblast. Gains were also made in the Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainians have had a news blackout on their operations, and it appears clear that the announced successes are just part of a collection of wider successes they have not yet felt comfortable in publicly stating.
September 6, 2022
Russia has postponed a referendum on Kherson joining Russia for "security reasons".
September 7, 2022
Russia is getting ready to purchase rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.
The fact that Russia is in the position of buying this sort of ordinance suggest that it is either seriously depleted its stocks of the same, or that it is worried about doing so and seeking to use up newly purchased stores so as to have a reserve ammunition supply for other contingencies, real or imagined.
Ukraine retook territory near Kharkiv.
September 9, 2022
While it's not at all clear what's going on, it suddenly seems to be the case that the Ukrainians are advancing all over the front. Fighting has been hard in Kherson, but there are reports today of advancing in the north and the center, with some of these reports coming from Russian sources.
It's too early to really predict what's going on, but if this keeps up, the Russians are in a very bad spot.
September 10, 2022
What seemed to be promising local advances a couple of days ago is developing into open field running by the Ukrainians, who are now outsmarting and outfighting the Russians darned near everywhere.
Ukraine has retaken Izium in the Kharkiv region, with the Russians openly retreating and admitting as much. This region of Ukraine wasn't even imagined to be the focus of what is turning out to be an effective broad front offensive. They're closing on Sievierodonetsk, whose loss in June was regarded as a major Ukrainian defeat. Some reports had the Russians deploying helicopters to intercept their own fleeing men as they attempted, and failed, to reinforce Izium.
It's still too early to tell, but things are beginning to take on an appearance of a systemic Russian collapse.
September 11, 2022
Situation as of September 11, 2022. By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
Further reports now reveal that the Russian withdrawal from Izium is a disorderly route, with retreating troops mixing with an attempt to reinforce the southern Donbas. Ukraine has retaken Velikiy Burluk which puts them with 15 kilometers of the Russian border.
September 13, 2022
Russia has suspended sending volunteer units into Ukraine, apparently being concerned that they are not dependable.
Ukraine is making advances in the Kherson Olbast.
29 additional municipalities have signed a petition asking Putin to resign, making the number 47.
The countries have fought two prior wars over areas they assert a right to control, with the last one going badly for Armenia. Yesterday there were clashes between their forces.
September 14, 2022
The Russians are engaging in some serious spin, acknowledging defeat in northern Ukraine while also attempting to blame anyone other than Putin.
Russian authorities in Crimea have urged their families to flee Crimea, and there have been home sales and family evacuations by Russian authorities there.
September 16, 2022
Pope Francis in interview on September 15 regarding providing weapons to Ukraine by third party powers:
This is a political decision which it can be moral, morally acceptable, if it is done under conditions of morality … Self-defence is not only licit but also an expression of love for the homeland,. . . Someone who does not defend oneself, who does not defend something, does not love it. Those who defend . . . love it.”
September 17, 2022
Ukrainian advances into territory that has been occupied by Russia has revealed evidence of torture and murder by the Russians.
Putin has threatened increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for Ukrainian partisan attacks on Russian property in the territory occupied by Russia, taking a page, more or less, out of Hitler's book, to the extent he's not already operating from it. He might want to skip to the last chapter and see how that worked out for Hitler.
Ukraine is warning of false flag operations in Russian occupied areas over the next few days.
September 18, 2022
Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the north.
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
September 21, 2022
A long feared mobilization of Russian forces may be starting to occur in the wake of recent Russian defeats.
What's held Russia back from full mobilization, a step urged by Russian milbloggers and some parliamentarians, isn't known, but it may be the fear that Russian reservists just won't show up, or that the move will spark large scale discontent.
300,000 reservists will be called into active Russian service.
Putin also vaguely threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues its efforts to reclaim its territory.
And Putin is also holding "referendums" in the territory which Russia occupies nearly immediately, which will have the guaranteed result of resulting in Russian annexation of the same.
This step takes the world deeper into the war, not further from it. Essentially, Putin is placing Russia in a position in which it will be committing its reserves to an effort which will now be claiming to defend its own territory. Putin, and maybe Russia itself, will not be able to back out of this, and Ukraine and the rest of the non toady world will not be able to recognize it.
It'll be interesting to see what the mobilization accomplishes. It's effectively a massive admission of Russian military weakness. Russia has the numbers, but the numbers haven't worked in their favor so far. With discontent on the war growing inside of Russia, Putin may be going down the same path as Czar Nicholas II.
September 22, 2022
It now appears that the Russian call up of reservists shall be in stages and will not have an immediate effect on the war in Ukraine, as long as Ukraine continues to act swiftly. That is, the impact shall not be for many months.
While at the 300,000 level, this should raise some questions on whether the call-up is to offset losses. It really isn't clear what Russia's combat loss has been.
Russia, like many other countries, only requires a year of service for conscripts. While this practice is common, for the most part it leaves those trained in that fashion with incomplete military skills that wane fairly quickly. Called up reservist, therefore, are likely to need months of training if they're to be combat worthy troops, although Russia has certainly seemed to be willing to commit troops with less than adequate combat skills.
The British Ministry of Defense has stated that Russia has run out of willing volunteers.
Protests in Russia resulted in 1,200 arrests. Reports have held that flights out of the country have received an enormous boost as men eligible to be called into service have sought flights out.
September 23, 2022
Russia's partial mobilization is spawning domestic discontent and protests, which in turn has caused the Russians to conscript protesters as part of its reaction. Rather obviously, the tactic of conscripting those bold enough to protest against the war isn't likely to produce combat worthy troops. Indeed, at some point, it has the effect of arming and training those who are likely to turn their guns on their government.
Russia has also gone beyond calling trained reservists into service in other ways, now conscripting men who have never served and actually, in at least one instance, using a press-gang university on students to drag them directly from classes for services, something directly contrary to a statement exempting students from this levy and a shocking reversion to very primitive conscription methods.
In response, some Russian federal regions are passing laws prohibiting reservists from leaving their places of permanent residence in order to attempt to keep men from fleeing service. Reports also indicate that the Russians are disproportionately conscripting non Russians.
All of this would suggest a Russia much more at trouble at home, and with much wider opposition to the war, than previously expected. The chances of building an effective replacement army under these circumstances is slight. Moreover, this must be obvious to Russia's allies, such as China, demonstrating the nation is rotting from the edifice.
September 28, 2022
Russia's sham elections were held in the last couple of days with the predictable results being that votes in the Russian occupied portions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk supposedly were overwhelmingly in favor of annexation into Russia. That will now occur within the next couple of days.
It won't end the war, certainly, but now Russia will have legal cover for deploying conscripts into the war. Conscription, however, is going very badly. Oddly enough, Russia is conscripting outright opponents to the war, which is not likely to result in willing soldiers.
Two undersea explosions occurred on the idled Nord Stream pipeline.
Accomplishing an underwater strike such as this would require some expertise to pull off and there are suspicions, not yet proven, that Russia itself did it. Ukraine has claimed just that. The hard thing to figure out, however, is what the goal of such an attack would be.
September 29, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are about to take Lyman and are generally advancing, although not necessarily rapidly, everywhere along the front.
Russian forces are now so depleted that they're being supplied with replacements out of the newly called up men who have very little training. In one instances of this that hit the news, a Russian commander informs his troops they'll be given a uniform, body armor, and a rifle, and nothing else, including no medical supplies.
The U.S. is providing an additional $1.1B in aid to Ukraine.
Additional leaks have been found in the Nord Stream pipeline, which is now more or less officially viewed as having been hit by sabotage. German sources feel the damage is irreparable although, due to subsequent pipeline construction elsewhere, the loss may not be as significant as it might at first appear.
The mystery of the destruction remains, given the illogic involved in hitting it. For the most part, most of the attention is focused on the Russians, but some conspiracy theorist of various stripes have accused the US, which certainly did not do it. U.S. right wing commentator Tucker Carson basically took the Russian line and suggested, if not outright stated, that the U.S. was responsible for the act, and on the same day, Donald Trump absurdly offered to attempt to broker a peace. Not too surprisingly, loyal Trump rank and file accolades praised the former President's ridiculous offer and some have adopted the absurd U.S. did it thesis.
Iraq/Iran
The Iranian air force struck Kurdish targets in Iraq in retaliation for Kurdish support of Iranian women protestors.
The protests in Iran broke out after a young woman was killed after Kurdish Iranian Mahsa Amini died in police detention after being taken into custody for wearing her hajib incorrectly. Iran has religious police that enforce the Iranian interpretation of Islam's religious behavior rules, something that is not unique to Iran in the Islamic world. Women in Iran have chaffed for years under the strict rules applied in Iran and have now engaged in days of protests over the event. Protestors have openly defied the rules in their protests, and some have now called for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
At the same time, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been absent from the public, fueling speculation that he may not be able to return to his duties following bowel surgery in early September.
September 30, 2022
NATO declared the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines sabatage and warned that it would regard any attacks upon the infrastructure of its member states as an attack upon the member nations.
Ukrainian forces have enveloped Lyman.
October 1, 2022
Russia declared itself to have annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia yesterday. In his speech he engaged in nuclear saber rattling.
Ths move grossly complicates finding a peaceful solution to the war as Russia, which is losing, will now claim that its defending its own territory even though it will be largely alone in the world in recognizing its claims. Putin will not be able to give up ground he's annexed, so at this point the war can largely only really end with Putin deposed.
The current borders in Europe, it might be noted, are those that largely came into existance post World War Two. Ukraine's post 1917 borders were larger than the current ones by a signficant extent:
By Spiridon Ion Cepleanu - History Atlases available., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17831314
As the map above demonstrates, the real territorial growth of Ukraine was at the expense of Poland, post Second World War, but that change also featured the Soviets expelling Poles to the west, and in what is now Poland, expelling Germans also to the west. And the territory Ukraine aquired at that time was in fact largely claimed by Ukrainians in 1918. Indeed, that region of Ukraine had been fought over between the two countries, with the Poles also seeking to claim quite a bit of land to its post 1918 eastern boundaries. The only signficant part of modern post Soviet collapse Ukraine that had not been part of Ukraine until after World War Two is Crimea, which traditionally had neither a Ukrainian or Russian population, something the Russians changed through heavy migration into the region. Ukraine did claim it, however, in 1917.
Ukraine did claim lands much to the east of its current boundaries following 1917, and indeed even much further to the east of what this map shows based on Ukrainian settlements of Russian regions to the east.
While it won't do it, Ukraine would have just about as much right to annex the territories it lost to the Soviet Union as its own as Russia does to do the reverse.
Russia is also blaming the US for the Nord Stream gas severance event, a baseless conspiracy theory. Russia is the nation most likely to have sabataged the line.
October 1, 2022
The Russians have withdrawn from Lyman.
Below, by the way, is a map that's linked in to its original source showing the percentages of the vote in current Ukraine that voted for independence from Russia in 1991.
As shown, even Crimea had over 50% of its population wanting out of Russia.
It's also worth remebering that the newly free Ukraine was a nuclear state. It gave those weapons up following a Western promise to guaranty its freedom.
October 3, 2022
It appears that the Ukrainians may have broken through at Kherson.
While, once again, its too early to tell, this is beginning to have the apperance of being a generalized Russian collapse.
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