Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 10 (the final edition for 2025). The Gunboat Diplomacy Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.

Smedley D. Butler, War Is a Racket

December 21, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

Thee U.S. Coast Guard seized a second tanker transporting Venezuelan oil.

United States and Jordan v. ISIL

Jordan confirmed it helped the U.S. in the airstrikes in Syria against ISIL.

December 22, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

The US will be seizing, if it has not already, a third tanker.

December 23, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov,  head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, was killed by an explosive device placed under his car in Moscow.

December 24, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Siversk in the eastern Donetsk region after heavy fighting with Russian forces.

December 26, 2025

United States v. ISIS in Nigeria

The US hit ISIS affiliated targets in Nigeria yesterday.

Islamist attacks on Catholic Nigerians has been going on for a long time and has received very little attention in the US, outside of Catholic circles associated with Nigerians, but suddenly under the Trump Administration, it is.  The attention is long overdue, but a person has to suspect that it comes out of NatCon circles and from Catholics inside the administration, rather than some personal concern from President Trump himself.  Indeed, in announcing the strikes the mentally declining illegitimate chief executive stated:

Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!

The many years and evcen centuries statement demonstrates a massive deficit in historical knowledge.  Th is has been going on for many years, the vast majority of Christians on the plant are Catholic and there's been many examples of brutal killing of Catholics, very notably by Muslims, for centuries. 

The strikes were carried out by ship to shore missiles.

Which groups were hit is unclear, but the largest IS-linked group in Nigeria is the Islamic State West Africa Province while the smaller group known as Lakurawa has sought to establish a base in north-western Sokoto state which was where the strikes were targeted.

Islamist groups in Nigeria have acted against Muslims as well as Catholics, but while that is noted, their repression and brutality is principally directed at Catholics.

The intervention seems justified and generally welcomed but now that it has commenced, the US will have to continue as this is a very long running problems and a day of missile attacks is not going to stop things immediately.

December 27, 2025

United States v. ISIS in Nigeria

In something that's obvious, but interesting in the world of Trump claims/lies/fantasies, Nigeria indicated it was open to the new military relationship with the US being ongoing and indicated that defeating Islamic extremist in the country will take some time.

It'll take a long time.

It's a worthwhile endeavor, but I wonder how the MAGAs that believed that Trump was going to end US involvement in foreign wars will justify it.  Most MAGAs believe in isolationism, and the NAR folks include groups which, in their ignorance, don't realize that Catholics, the Christians in peril in Nigeria, and which are the original Christian denomination, are actually Christians.

On the strikes:

US targets ISIS with multiple strikes in Nigeria

U.S. cruise missiles miss targets in Nigeria

December 28, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia attacked Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drones yesterday, a day before scheduled talks between the Ukraine and the United States., killing at least one person and wounding 27.

It'll be interesting to see what effect this has on the talks given the participation of the unreliable and demented Donald Trump.

Thailand v. Cambodia

The fighting parties signed a new armistice in their border conflict.

The origin of the border fight dates back to the 1950s and is over undefined and unagreed to areas of their common border.

December 31, 2025

Saudi Arabia v. Yemeni separatists

Saudi Arabia bombe the Yemeni port city of Mukalla on Tuesday after a weapons shipment from the United Arab Emirates arrived for separatist forces.  A warning to the UAE followed.

United States v. Venezuela.

The Central Intelligence Area hit a Venezuelan dock with drones.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 9. The Neville Chamberlain Edition.

Labels: 1930s, 1938, 2020s, 2025, Cambodia, Congo, Donald Trump, Gaza, Hamas, Isreal, Munich Pact, Neville Chamberlain, Russo Ukrainian War, Rwanda, Thailand, Ukraine, Venezuela, Vladimir Putin, War, Wars and rumors of wars

Thursday, February 26, 1925. Glacier Bay.

The Wahhabi raided into Transjordan.

President Coolidge established the boundaries of Glacier Bay National Monument, which is now Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve.

Last edition:

Wednesday, February 25, 1925. Preventing cruelty.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, 1925 Wyoming Legislative Session, Mental Health, Panama, technology, U.S. Navy, Wyoming

Friday, August 16, 1974. Gerald Ford hosted King Hussein of Jordan in his first state dinner.

Last edition:

Thursday August 15, 1974. An attempted South Korean assassination.

Labels: 1970s, 1974, Korea, North Korea, South Korea

Monday, May 26, 1924. The beginning of the end for Hejaz.

The U.S. Immigration Act of 1924 was signed into law.

Ikhwan fighters.

The Battle of Turubah was fought between the Kingdom of Hejaz and the Sultanate of Nejd.  The defeat of Hajaz by the Saudi forces of Nejd paved the way for modern Saudi Arabia.

Wilhelm Marx resigned as Chancellor of Germany.

Last prior edition:

Sunday, May 25, 1924. Coolidge at Arlington.

Labels: 1920s, 1924, Calvin Coolidge, Greece, Memorial Day

A Palestinian Solution (that nobody is going to do).

In this thread, I suggested a solution to the "Palestinian" problem isn't all that hard:

An uncomfortable truth.*

In reality, I'd partially already proposed it:

The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.

Those threads are pretty complete, but let's just set out the basic facts of the problem.

Part One:

• The Palestinian Mandate's Levantines didn't want any sort of Jewish state or any sort of "two-state solution in 1948".  The neighboring Arab states didn't want one either.
• World War Two made it inevitable that Jews would seek refuge in the region they'd held historically and up until 70.
• The British tried and failed to create a two-state solution, and then washed their hands of the matter and left.
• The Israelis won the 1948 war.
• During the 1948 war, a lot of Levantines left out of fear, rational calculation of danger, or were expelled.
• Just would have invited them back in, but the Israeli's were not in the mood for that, and the Arabs largely weren't either.  That is, having fought for it, the Israeli's decided to keep what they had in every sense, and the Arabs were still dedicated to the proposition of pushing them out.
• That's now over 70 years ago and almost everyone involved in the original drama is dead.

Part Two:

• The Arabs have been happy to support a Palestinian diaspora, partially, but not to invite them into their own countries.
• The Palestinians have been unwilling to come up with a new, permanent plan, that doesn't feature, at a bare minimum, the territory that was at least partially in Mandatory Palestine.
• Gaza and to a lesser extent the West Bank were solutions that Israel was willing to put up with, but not the Levantines, even as they took advantage of it.
• The "Palestinians" have been , to a large extent, living on the Arab and Global dole since Gaza and the West Bank were created as entities subject to self rule. They don't have work, and they don't have much to do, other than to do, what people who have an income, but no work, do. . . . fill in the blanks here.

Okay now for the elements of the solution.

Part One

• The Palestinian Levantines need work and need to be taken off the dole.
• In order to do that, the pipe dream of an independent Palestinian state inside the borders of Mandatory Palestine needs to be given up on, unless Jordan, which is a Bedouin state, wishes to become that entity, and it doesn't.

So, what can be done.  There are two, and only two, possibilities.

Solution Number One.

The Palestinian Levantines can be taken in by the Arab states that have work, which would include the Emirates, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia.*

Yes, that's radical, but if they were taken in, taken off the dole, and got to work, within a generation or two, this problem would be over, and they would be better off.

Solution Number Two.

Create a Palestinian state in the Sinai.

That has obvious geoengineering problems, but the Israelis confronted those inside Mandatory Palestine and the states of the Arabian Peninsula have faced them as well.  It's been proven that you can geoengineer these areas productively.  It has been done.

And in that state, Gaza could remain part of it.

This, of course, would require Egypt to give up Sinai, but frankly, it's not making much use of it anyway.

Footnotes:

*And probably Jordan as well, as the West Bank was part of Transjordan and probably ought just go back to Jordan.

Related threads:

An uncomfortable truth.*

1940s, 1948, 70, 70s, Al Nakba, Arabs, British League of Nations Mandates, Hamas, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, Levant, Ottoman Empire, Palestine, Palestinian Revolution, Roman Empire, The Holocaust

The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.

Arabs, British League of Nations Mandates, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, It was because of World War One, It was because of World War Two, Kuwait, MIddle East, Ottoman Empire, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

Thursday, April 4, 1974. I wanted to note Hank Aaron. . .

 The tornado Super Outbreak of 1974 concluded

It is the second second-largest tornado outbreak on record and most violent tornado outbreak ever recorded.  148 confirmed tornadoes hit Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and New York.

What I really wanted to note, but the story above is more important, is that Hank Aaron tied the career record of Babe Ruth on this day in a game in which his Braves played the Reds.

Jordanian women were granted the right to vote.  Parliament was also suspended at the time, so it wasn't as impactful immediately as it might sound.

The ban against the Ulster Volunteer Force, in effect since 1966, was lifted.  The loyalist militia had been formed the prior year, 1965.

While the UVF's motto is "For God and Ulster", and it was supposed to disband, since the 1994 ceasefire it reportedly has been involved in rioting, drug dealing, organized crime, loan-sharking and prostitution.  Some members have reportedly been involved in racist attacks.

I guess this all goes to show that even on days when there's an exciting event, a lot of cruddy things are occurring.

Last prior edition:

Friday, March 29, 1974. Kent State Indictments

1970, 1970s, 1974, 200 BCs, 209 BC, 210 BC, 210s BC, Arab Oil Embargo, Automobiles, China, Civil Unrest, Crime, law, United Kingdom, Vietnam War

Levantines

I've used the term "Coastal Arabs" here recently to describe the culture that stretches from teh Sinai to Turkey and which includes a lot of Syria.

Distribution of Levantine Arab dialect. By A455bcd9 - Own work based on: Levantine Arabic 2022.svgReferences:Brustad, Kristen; Zuniga, Emilie (2019) "Chapter 16: Levantine Arabic" in Huehnergard, John , ed. The Semitic Languages (2nd ed.), Routledge, pp. 403–432 DOI: 10.4324/9780429025563. ISBN: 978-0-415-73195-9. OCLC: 1103311755.Eberhard, David M.; Simons, Gary F.; Fennig, Charles D. (2022). Jordan and Syria. Ethnologue: Languages of the World. SIL International., CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=128220068

It turns out, the word that I should have used is Levantines.

The region has its own dialect of Arabic, its own (really good) cuisine, and those who genetic history from the region can be identified by their DNA.  

Yes, they are Arabs, but they are not Bedouin. 

Tuesday, September 18, 1973. The United Nations and the two Germanys.

The Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic were admitted to the United Nations.

King Hussein issued a general amnesty for Palestinian terrorists held by Jordan.

Saturday, May 26, 1923. The Twenty Four Hours of Le Mans

The first Le Mans automobile race took place.

The French executed some Germans who were committing acts of sabotage and the like against their occupation of the Ruhr.

One of the terrorist was one Albert Leo Schlageter, a former German officer of the Great War and a Freikorps officer who had engaged in acts of sabotage against the French.  He was not a "Red" and would go on to obtain mythic status in the German far right, including the early Nazis, who in fact murdered his betrayer.  The killers of that individual were one Rudolf Höss and Martin Bormann, who would later go on to roles in the Third Reich.  They were first captured and sentenced for their role in the murder.  

Bormann is well known, but Höss less so.  He was Auschwitz's longest commanding officer and was executed in 1947.  Facing execution, he came to see his actions as gravely immoral and wrote this out to his wife prior to his execution:

My conscience compels me to make the following declaration. In the solitude of my prison cell, I have come to the bitter recognition that I have sinned gravely against humanity. As Commandant of Auschwitz, I was responsible for carrying out part of the cruel plans of the 'Third Reich' for human destruction. In so doing I have inflicted terrible wounds on humanity. I caused unspeakable suffering for the Polish people in particular. I am to pay for this with my life. May the Lord God forgive one day what I have done. I ask the Polish people for forgiveness. In Polish prisons I experienced for the first time what human kindness is. Despite all that has happened I have experienced humane treatment which I could never have expected, and which has deeply shamed me. May the facts which are now coming out about the horrible crimes against humanity make the repetition of such cruel acts impossible for all time.

On this same day, a Communist lead strike in the Ruhr expanded.

The British made the Emirate of Transjordan autonomous, but not independent of British oversight. It would achieve full independence in 1946.

Turkey waived reparations claims against Greece at Lausanne in exchange for the Thracian territory.

Thursday, June 5, 1941. The US starts to occupy Iceland

4,000 Marines, a substantial number, arrived in Iceland to replace British troops garrisoning the country.

USS New York off of Reykjavik.

Iceland had not regarded the British invasion of their island, done to keep the Germans from seizing it, as a favor.  US forces were not invited either, but were better tolerated under the circumstances.

On the same day about 4,000 Chinese residents of Chongquing China died of asphyxiation in a tunnel in which they had sought refuge from a Japanese air raid.

Vichy France's status as a quasi belligerent on the Axis side increased when their aircraft bombed Aman, Jordan.   The Royal Air Force had already bombed Syrian airfields, so the move wasn't wholly unjustified, but it did signal that France was creeping up on being an outright Axis ally under the authoritarian regime of Marshal Petain.

Around 2,500 people were killed in an ammunition storage explosion in Yugoslavia.

April 25, 1941 Echoes of wars past.

On this day in 1941, the Afrika Corps took Halfaya Pass between Egypt and Libya and entered Egypt from the west.  Given the dire situation, the British withdrew its Hurricanes from Tobruk, although they were down to two there at the time.  This left only Westland Lysanders stationed there for artillery spotting purposes.

Westland Lysanders over Madagascar in 1942.

The move conceded control of the skies to the Luftwaffe over Tobruk.

On the same day, Arab recruits to the British forces paraded in Jerusalem.

 

In spite of manpower shortages, and in spite of the fact that Arab volunteers were forthcoming, the British made very little use of them.  It made some, but not much.  All in all, there seems to have been an element of lingering mistrust of Arab volunteers and forces in spite of the significant cooperation between the Hashemites, now ruling Transjordan (and recently overthrown, albeit temporarily, in Iraq), during World War One.  This was partially amplified by Arab unrest between the wars.

On this day, the British forces were defeated at Thermopylae.  

Be that as it may, however, the British defense there did amount none the less to a strategic victory given as the delaying action gave the British forces now withdrawing from Greece much needed time.  The British forces made a 100 miles strategic withdrawal in twelve hours, a remarkable feat, and were greeted with flowers by crowds in Athens.

Many of the troops in Greece were New Zealand, so here again we'll not a bit of an irony in that on this day the British in the Middle East were observing ANZAC Day.

Australian troops at Anzac Monument in front of cemetery, April 25, 1941.

Regarding German intervention in Greece a complete success, Hitler ordered, on this day, the invasion of Crete.

In a press conference, President Roosevelt compared Charles Lindbergh's position on the war to that of the Copperheads to the Civil War.

April 17, 1921. Sir Herbert Samuel's visits Transjordan for the second time.

The first time was a bit of a disaster as the British government had to renounce certain proclamations that Sir Herbert had made.

This time went better.  Quite a turn out was there in recognition of the official nature of the event, including the Bedouins depicted above.

Transportation wasn't limited to the old fashioned and traditional, however.  British aircraft were present at the Amman airfield.

T. E. Lawrence, no longer in mufti, appeared to meet old friends.

April 11, 1921. Glass Arm Eddie, First Broadcast Lightweight Boxing Match, 67th Congress, Transjordan, Cigarettes in Iowa.

Eddie Brown.

On the same day that Eddie Brown, Centerfielder, was photographed, the first radio broadcast of a lightweight boxing match may, or may not have, been done:

Old Radio: April 11, 1921: The First Lightweight Boxing Match...: April 11, 1921: The first lightweight boxing match on radio between Johnny Ray and Johnny Dundee was broadcasted live on this day ...

Pity the poor blogger on something like this. . . 

On this Monday of April, 1921, the 67th Congress was sworn in.

The United Kingdom established the Emirate of Transjordan, which today is the Kingdom of Jordan. Abdullah, the future king, was the Emir.  His grandson is the present king. 

The kingdom has been in the news recently as it may be that a case of sibling rivalry has popped up, and is even potentially dangerous.  

Iowa lifted a prohibition on the sale of cigarettes, a retrograde act that shows the could happen.  

Indeed, cigarette prohibition was an early 20th Century thing that shows the dangers of tobacco, while not really fully understood, weren't completely unknown either.  Prior to Iowa three other states had banned the sale, and even the possession, of cigarettes.

World War One, however, hadn't helped matters.  Indeed, while the Great War had helped push alcohol over the top in terms of being passed, the same factors were somewhat at work.  Thousands of men had been exposed to young drinking during the war and to societies in which, at that time, alcohol was simply part of life and a matter of routine daily consumption.  And cigarettes had poured into the trenches during the war in no small part due to the stress of the situation, and the fact that cigarettes were easier to smoke than their competitors.

1919 cigarette advertisement with  youthful smoking veteran.

For whatever reason, cigarettes really are more dangerous than pipes or cigars, health wise, which doesn't mean any of them are safe.  Lung cancer rates would start to spike in the 1930s due to them.

It's odd to think that my father's father, who was from Iowa originally, was a lifelong Camel cigarette smoker, albeit "life long" is deceptive as he died in his 40s.

On the same day, telephone service was established from Florida to Cuba, and as that lays on the path to cell phones, it was also a retrograde movement. A look at somebody in a distant land, from what seems to be the distant past:

April 11, 1921: 'Abdu'l-Baha at Pilgrim House

March 28, 1921. Empires coming and going.

Street in Seattle on March 28, 1921.

Things went from bad to worse for Charles I, the last Austro Hungarian Emperor, when newly created Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia warned Hungary that if the regained the Hungarian throne, they'd declare war on Hungary.

All of those countries, combined with Austria, had been part of the Austro Hungarian Empire and they feared that Charles I's restoration as King of Hungary would be followed by a claim to restore the Austro Hungarian Empire.

Winston and Clementine Churchill were the subjects of a reception at the Government House in Jerusalem.

Also present was Abdullah I and his entourage.  Abdullah's army had occupied Jordan without opposition.  He was a British client, but the situation was tense as his actions were not yet recognized as legitimate.

The U.S. launched the USS Corry, a Clemson class destroyer that would serve only nine years.  The ship had been ordered in World War One, like all of the ships then being commissioned, but finished to late to serve in the war.

The Corry was one of 60 ships decommissioned as too expensive to maintain at the beginning of the Great Depression.

The Australian Department of Civil Aviation was formed as the Civil Aviation Branch of the Australian Defense Department.

An Easter Egg roll was held on the White House grounds.  Easter was the day prior in 1921.

March 21, 1921. The New Economic Policy.

Lenin introduced the New Economic Policy, a short run return to capitalism under state control.  It was essentially an acknowledgment of the complete failure of communism in the economy and darned near the complete failure of communism in general.

The policy was primarily an effort to revive agricultural production, which had fallen off dramatically. The mass of the Russian peasants were overwhelmingly opposed to Communism and were resisting collectivization.  80% of the Russian population was rural and support for Communism was nearly completely centered in urban areas, an interesting example of people basically voting for what they could get, as Communist appropriations benefited only the urban working class. Russian peasantry, in contrast, had viewed the Revolution as simply a chance to get formal ownership of the land they were working, a process that had in actuality been going on by default, but which was not yet completed, for some time. 

Lenin thought that ultimately collectivization would occur, but only after the NEP had built up rural areas over a period of decades.  He oddly acknowledged that creating a functioning capitalist economy, but under state control, would lift the Russian economy out of the basement, but he believed that by doing that the entire state would be educated in the benefits of Communism and then would convert to complete state ownership thereafter.  It was a peculiar belief, as it welded the reality of the present with a clinging belief that somehow collectivization would ultimately benefit everyone.

Upon Lenin's death in 1924, Stalin, who had favored the NEP over objections like those of Trotsky, would reverse course and force collectivize agriculture, resulting in a massive man made famine.  This isn't the only area where Stalin would follow a path first suggested by his arch rival, and it should make fans of Trotsky, who have traditionally assumed he was a more benign malignancy than Stalin, pause.  In reality he was an even bigger fanatic.  At any rate, the forced collectivization of Soviet agriculture in the 1920s through the early 1930s, which took that long, resulted in a massive death toll from starvation.  What remains surprising is that the Soviet populations didn't rise up in rebellion at the time.

Lenin fans have continued to note that Lenin, in his political will, suggested that Stalin be sidetracked and that if he had been, Communism would have succeeded.  This is probably completely incorrect, however.  In reality if the NEP had progressed in Soviet Russia a capitalist middle class would have developed. Where the country would have gone from there is unclear, but it wouldn't have been further into Communism.

Indeed, there's reason to look at modern Red China as a state employing what is essentially the NEP. The present leaders of that state have expressed the view that the NEP better represented what Communism was supposed to be about and have basically employed elements of it in their economy.  How that will play out for them remains to be seen.  At any rate, modern Red China's state run capitalism is similar to what the NEP imagined, and imagined would then go into full collective ownership.

Soviet gold backed note.  The NEP reintroduced gold backed currency in Soviet Russia.

The Constituent Assembly of Georgia held its last session, and then abandoned the country to the invading Soviet Union.

The British changed the Mandate for Palestine to allow for the creation of Transjordan, which is now Jordan.

The most successful Irish Republican Army raid in County Kerry occurred when the IRA ambushed a British troop train at Headford.  Like most IRA/British battles, there were low casualties.

March 2, 1921. Doomed rebellions and protomonarchies.

Anti Bolshevik sailors took the Kronstandt fortress, on an island, but accessible from the mainland in February due to frozen ice.

Striking miners in the Italian occupied Croatian city of Labin declared a communist republic for the town.  The rebellion is regarded as the first anti fascist rebellion in the world, but the reason for it being so regarded really isn't clear.  The city was under Italian governance at the time, but while fascism was rising in Italy, it had not yet come into control of the Italian monarchy.  The rebellion would last until April 8 when the Italian government put it down.

Abdullah I bin Al-Hussein relocated to Amman in anticipation of ruling the Emirate of Transjordan