September 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Vasily Popov, commander of the Russian 247th Guard Air Assault Regiment, was killed in a counter-attack in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia area.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Belarusian President Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes and called upon the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.
The Duma proposed blocking WhatsApp as part of the Kremlin’s effort to control the Russian information space.
cont:
Pro Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is critically ill.
September 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka near Bakhmut.
September 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Six Ukrainian deputy defense ministers were fired on Monday as part of an ongoing cleanup of corruption in the Ukrainian defense department.
Post Soviet Union Ukraine has been plagued with corruption, as has post Soviet Union Russia. This is no surprise, as the Soviet system encouraged corruption by its very nature, and so that post Soviet societies would feature a lot of it is to be expected.
Ironically, this fact has led opponents of supporting Ukraine, which is democratic and is fighting a just fight, to cite the corruption as a reason to allow the country to be conquered by Russia, although they don't put it that way. While the country has featured a lot of corruption, Russia's is now endemic and currently not only that case, but watching modern Russia is a lot like watching Goodfellas in real time.
Following 2013's Euromaiden protest, the country has moved increasingly towards the west and has had a strong desire to join the European Union and NATO. That is what has, in no small part, brought the current war about, as Putin, a Russian nationalist at heart, is opposed to that and sees Ukraine as a mere Russian province. Efforts to join NATO have lead to a list of further items Ukraine must address in order to do so, once the war is over, and cleaning up corruption will no doubt continue.
The ISW is giving praise to Ukrainian offensive efforts near Bakhmut, which it cites as having kept Russian forces committed in that area, leaving the Russians unable to reinforce further south. It's reporting that Russian forces in both areas are suffering severe degradation.
Iran v. Kurds
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed unis to the border with Iraq in an effort to put pressure on Iraq to arrest Kurdish efforts in Iran.
Iran messes heavily in regional conflicts, taking an active pro-government role in Syria for example. Here, however, the war in Syria and the conclusion of the war in Iraq has led to Kurdish semi autonomy, which has in turn lead to Kurdish activity in northern Iran.
cont:
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Azerbaijan’s declared an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under Armenian control. Armenian media indicated air raid sirens and mortar fire in the regional capital of Stepanakert had been observed.
Armenian forces recently trained with U.S. forces.
September 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Prime Minister of Poland has announced; "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons".
Poland and Ukraine have been in a dispute over grain, which has been flooding the Polish market as Ukraine's ports have been blocked, even while Poland has been a major supporter of Ukraine's war effort.
In spite of the way it's been portrayed, historically Poland and Ukraine have not gotten along and following World War One fought over their respective borders. During World War Two, Ukrainian nationalist militias committed acts of genocide against Polish villagers. The recent Polish support of Ukraine may reflect Polish animosity towards Russia as much as anything else.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul, who is a libertarian with isolationist tendencies, is holding up the most recent funding for Ukraine.
What both of these stories point out is that the slow moving progress of the Ukrainian offensive, while receiving support from some analysts such as those from the ISW, presents real problems in terms of ongoing Western support. Ukraine's strategy, from those supporting it, is reputed to be a slow moving offensive using artillery to attrit Russian forces, made necessarily in part by a lack of air assets. That may be correct, but if it is, Ukraine may find itself with decreasing material support from the West including the United States should the U.S. far right gain in Congress.
Wagner is withdrawing from Syria.
Cont:
Ukrainian light armor appears to have pushed through Russian lines near Bakhmut, which would be significant, if substantial and correct. Indeed, the fact that there are reports of this is significant as it would suggest Russian forces must be very downgraded in the area.
September 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was killed today by a Ukrainian missile/drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's Sevastopol headquarters.
September 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland walked back its earlier statement about not transferring arms to Ukraine, indicating that what was meant that new arms it is acquiring for itself will not be transferred.
September 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
According to ISW, the Ukrainian Army has broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. This is not, however, the final Russian defensive line.
September 25, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove appear to be close to surrounding the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka.
September 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Armenia effectively surrendered, and the subject enclave will be abandoned. Armenia is blaming Russia for its peacekeeping forces being ineffective.
US v. ISIL
The U.S. announced the capture of ISIL official Abu Halil al-Fad'ani in a raid in northern Syria.
September 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was in fact not killed on the Ukrainian missile strike on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet.
A Russian drone strike cut the ferry ties between Ukraine and Romania.
September 30, 2023
Armenia v. Azerbaijan
Almost the entire population of the ethnic Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, some 100,000 people, have since Azerbaijan seized the region last week.
October 1, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The emergency stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government for 45 days omits funds for Ukraine.
October 5, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drone attacks now occur inside of Russia daily. Two Russian cargo jets were destroyed at the Russian air base at Pskov yesterday, with the Russians claiming that the attacks were launched from inside of Russian territory.
Ukrainians have carried out a second commando raid on Crimea. The Russian navy has pulled out of Sevastopol and dispersed.
October 6, 2023
Syrian Civil War
A drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in the Syrian Homs, killed 80 and wounded 240. Some civilians were amongst the casualties.
China v. Everyone
A Chinese nuclear submarine is reported to have been caught in a Chinese submarine net last December, resulting in its sinking and the loss of the entire crew.
October 7, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border. Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has deployed snipers overseas against Wagner forces.
October 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated to newsmen last week, "I have to say that Zelensky is acting absolutely appropriately", a surprising statement from a Russian ally.
Hamas v. Israel
Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.
Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons. Hamas took hostages back into Israel.
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