Mid-Holocene rock painting depiction of archers fighting, Cueva del Roure, Spain.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
Only the dead have seen the end of war.
George Santayana
February 1, 2024
Iran v. The United States
In retaliation for the death of three servicemen in Jordan, and implicitly the ongoing Iranian misbehavior through their Houthi proxies, and others, the US is going to engage in retaliatory strikes, including cyber strikes, outside of Iran, over a period of weeks.
This is a gigantic escalation in the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, and frankly I feel it's an error. It's a big step towards war.
Not that this expresses sympathy with Iran, a dangerous theocracy basically at war with the world.
Ironically, it might be noted, Republicans have been shilling for a greater response. In response to this, for example, Nebraska Republican Senator Deb Fischer seemed to complain it was too late. Keeping track of wars that the GOP feels we're not in enough, or are in way too much, is becoming a chore.
Perhaps showing that Biden is on to something, Iranian backed militia Hezbollah has indicated it will knock off attacks on US installations. Iran has indicated it does not want war, but in the current Administration's view, it may have basically crossed that bridge already. The US does not seem to be willing to let the low grade conflict to continue, and it's hard to see Iran agreeing to back down.
Hamas v. Israel
Israel is flooding Hamas tunnels.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine hit Crimea with a missile strike yesterday.
Cont:
Iran v. The United States
The administration wants to avoid "escalation" — but it's time to realize that our enemies have already escalated.
The only attacks President Biden is deterring are our own.
My gosh, this has a Gulf of Tonkin feel to it.
Cont:
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine sinks Russian missile corvette
Putin has been expressing displeasure with Russian scientist working on a hypersonic missile program.
February 8, 2024
Hamas Isreali War
Executive Order on Imposing Certain Sanctions on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability in the West BankBy the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) and section 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 8 U.S.C. 1185(a)), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, find that the situation in the West Bank — in particular high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction — has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East region. These actions undermine the foreign policy objectives of the United States, including the viability of a two-state solution and ensuring Israelis and Palestinians can attain equal measures of security, prosperity, and freedom. They also undermine the security of Israel and have the potential to lead to broader regional destabilization across the Middle East, threatening United States personnel and interests. For these reasons, these actions constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat. Accordingly, I hereby order:Section 1. All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States person, including any foreign branch, of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in:(a) any foreign person determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, or the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State:(i) to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have directly or indirectly engaged or attempted to engage in, any of the following:(A) actions — including directing, enacting, implementing, enforcing, or failing to enforce policies — that threaten the peace, security, or stability of the West Bank; or(B) planning, ordering, otherwise directing, or participating in any of the following actions affecting the West Bank:(1) an act of violence or threat of violence targeting civilians;(2) efforts to place civilians in reasonable fear of violence with the purpose or effect of necessitating a change of residence to avoid such violence;(3) property destruction; or(4) seizure or dispossession of property by private actors;(ii) to be or have been a leader or official of:(A) an entity, including any government entity, that has engaged in, or whose members have engaged in, any of the activities described in subsections (a) or (b) of this section related to the leader’s or official’s tenure; or(B) an entity whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order as a result of activities relating to the leader’s or official’s tenure;(iii) to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, any person blocked pursuant to this order; or(iv) to be owned or controlled by, or to have acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, any person blocked pursuant to this order; or(b) any foreign person determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury:(i) to have committed or have attempted to commit, to pose a significant risk of committing, or to have participated in training to commit acts of terrorism affecting the West Bank; or(ii) to be a leader or official of an entity sanctioned pursuant to subsection (b)(i) of this section.Sec. 2. The prohibitions in section 1 of this order apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted before the date of this order.Sec. 3. The prohibitions in section 1 of this order include:(a) the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order; and(b) the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.Sec. 4. (a) The unrestricted immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of noncitizens determined to meet one or more of the criteria in section 1 of this order would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and the entry of such persons into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, is hereby suspended, except when the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Homeland Security, as appropriate, determines that the person’s entry would not be contrary to the interests of the United States, including when the Secretary of State or the Secretary of Homeland Security, as appropriate, so determines, based on a recommendation of the Attorney General, that the person’s entry would further important United States law enforcement objectives.(b) The Secretary of State shall implement this order as it applies to visas pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, may establish.(c) The Secretary of Homeland Security shall implement this order as it applies to the entry of noncitizens pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may establish.(d) Such persons shall be treated by this section in the same manner as persons covered by section 1 of Proclamation 8693 of July 24, 2011 (Suspension of Entry of Aliens Subject to United Nations Security Council Travel Bans and International Emergency Economic Powers Act Sanctions).Sec. 5. (a) Any transaction that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.(b) Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.Sec. 6. I hereby determine that the making of donations of the types of articles specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)) by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in this order, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 1 of this order.Sec. 7. For the purposes of this order:(a) the term “entity” means a partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;(b) the term “noncitizen” means any person who is not a citizen or noncitizen national of the United States;(c) the term “person” means an individual or entity;(d) the term “United States person” means any United States citizen, lawful permanent resident, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States; and(e) the term “terrorism” means an activity that:(i) involves a violent act or an act dangerous to human life, property, or infrastructure; and(ii) appears to be intended:(A) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population;(B) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or(C) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, kidnapping, or hostage-taking.Sec. 8. For those persons whose property and interests in property are blocked or affected by this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds and other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to this order would render those measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to this order.Sec. 9. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA as may be necessary to carry out the purposes of this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions within the Department of the Treasury. All executive departments and agencies of the United States shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to implement this order.Sec. 10. Nothing in this order shall prohibit transactions for the conduct of the official business of the Federal Government or the United Nations (including its specialized agencies, programs, funds, and related organizations) by employees, grantees, and contractors thereof.Sec. 11. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to submit recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).Sec. 12. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.THE WHITE HOUSE,February 1, 2024.
February 2, 2024
Mexican Border Crisis
More Border Support: Governor Ron DeSantis Sends Additional Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard to Assist Texas.
On February 1, 2024, in News Releases, by StaffNational Guardsmen and State Guard Soldiers will join FHP, FWC and FDLE officers already assisting Texas at the southern borderTALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced that Florida is deploying members of the Florida National Guard (FLNG) and members of the Florida State Guard (FSG) will be deployed to assist Texas in its efforts to stop the invasion at the southern border. Florida is offering up to a battalion of National Guard members (approximately 1,000 soldiers) to Texas, who will be deployed based on Texas’ needs. For more information about the announcement, click here.These deployments are in addition to the more than 90 officers from the Florida Highway Patrol (FHP), Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) that are currently deployed to the border. Additional law enforcement resources are standing by and ready to deploy as requested by Texas state officials. In December, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data showed that more than 302,000 illegal immigrants were encountered attempting to cross the southern border – the highest month ever recorded.“States have every right to defend their sovereignty and we are pleased to increase our support to Texas as the Lone Star State works to stop the invasion across the border,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “Our reinforcements will help Texas to add additional barriers, including razor wire along the border. We don’t have a country if we don’t have a border.”“This is not a new mission for us. For several years we have supported border security missions in Texas, to include both federal and state deployments,” said Major General John D. Haas, The Adjutant General of Florida. “Last spring the Florida National Guard was one of the first in the nation to deploy rotations of soldiers to support Operation Lone Star in Texas, and we have proudly and readily supported our own state’s efforts in similar roles here in Florida.”“The Florida State Guard is prepared to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with state agency partners in direct support of our brothers and sisters in Texas grappling with an unprecedented surge of illegal immigration along their border,” said Florida State Guard Director Mark Thieme. “The Florida State Guard is postured to deliver rapid emergency response, public safety operations and humanitarian assistance — wherever the need arises.”Since 2021, Florida has provided direct law enforcement and military assistance to Texas, including FLNG, which supported the Texas Military Department through mission sets including static observation points, roving patrols and engineer assistance with obstacle improvement. FHP has made contact with nearly 150,000 illegal aliens, conducted over 27,000 traffic stops, resulting in 2,102 Human Smuggling or Human Trafficking charges with 2,278 overall arrests.FDLE has sent rotations of officers to assist the Texas Department of Public Safety with arrests of violent felony suspects including gang members. Suspects were arrested on various Texas state charges including human smuggling, burglary, firearms, smuggling of persons, smuggling of persons with a firearm, child endangerment, escape from federal custody and possession of controlled substance. FWC has deployed a total of 540 FWC personnel, 525 four-wheel drive patrol trucks and 24 vessels.In Fiscal Year 2023, CBP recorded 2.5 million encounters – surpassing last year’s record. This includes 169 illegal immigrants on the terror watch list attempting to cross the southern border. Since Biden took office, more than 10 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border, including more than 1.7 million known gotaways. In December alone, roughly 260 million lethal doses of fentanyl were seized at the border.
Russia v. NATO
General Gheorghiță Vlad, Romania's chief of defense, issued a war warning in an interview with the Press, joining General Patrick Sanders, the United Kingdom's army chief, and Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in having recently said the same, and in urging their countries to prepare for war. They are not alone in this and this has been a common European theme in recent weeks.
Iran v the West
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad to meet leaders of the Iraqi groups to try to stop military action against U.S. forces. The fear that the US is going to launch major strikes, which the US has said its preparing,and that this will lead to a wider war is clearly impacting Iran.
February 2, 2024
Iran v. the West
The US hit 85 targets in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Iranian backed militia strike that killed three U.S. Servicemen tin Jordan.
Nigeria
Unknown attackers killed Segun Aremu, the Olukoro of Koro, in Nigeria and kidnapped his wife.
February 4, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
It appears the Ukrainians assassinated a Tu-95 pilot inside of Russia.
Soldiers' wives protested in Moscow, many were arrested.
Middle East
The US and UK hit 36 Houthi targets yesterday in Yemen.
Mexican Border Crisis
A Take Our Border Back rally is going on, on the border.
February 5, 2024
Middle East and the US and wars.
The weekend shows featured the bizarre spectacle of Republican politicians criticizing President Biden's actions against Iran for not going far enough when we're on the verge of an outright war right now.
Somehow, we're in the situation where for a lot of Republicans supporting Ukraine is bad, because Trump likes Putin, supporting Israel is paramount, as there's a vague underlying Evangelical feeling its nearly religiously mandated, and we ought to push Iran up to and maybe over the brink of war.
Mexican Border Crisis
On the weekend shows, a preview of the extensive bipartisan Senate border bill was featured. Mike Johnson is pretty clearly going to oppose it as he has orders from his puppet master. A Republican Senator threatened to push Johnson into a vote over his speakership, which apparently there had been a backdoor deal with Democratic Senators to try to prevent when he was nominated. This was based on the assertion that he'd broken his promises in that closed door meeting.
Governor Kristi Noem was banned from the Pine Ridge Reservation for declaring she wants to send razor wire and National Guardsmen to the Texas border.
Russo Ukrainian War
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed of Ukraine’s top commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. The failure of the spring/summer offensive contributed heavily to this. He will be replaced by Command of Land Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.
February 11, 2024
Hamas v. Israel
Israel has announced that it intends to enter Rafah.
This is being treated as a surprise for some reason, although I think it's always been clear that it intends to enter 100% of Gaza in stages.
The civilian death toll in Gaza is about 28,000.
February 12, 2024
NATO
Donald Trump's off the cuff comment that he'd invite Russia to attack countries that are delinquent in their NATO contribution has resulted in a firestorm of controvesy.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated:
Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk, I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed NATO Ally.
Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated; "I am still Putin’s press secretary, but not Trump’s".
Trump's cavalier comments were reckless and frankly weird, which is hardly an unusual thing for him. It does point out, however, the extent to which he's a reckless isolationist, perhaps in the early stages of dementia (he cannot seemingly control what he says) and bizarrely a Putin fanboy. The latter has never been adequately explained.
February 13, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
From ISW:
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria.
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