Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 9. The Neville Chamberlain Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

The settlement of the Czechoslovak problem which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is a paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine. Some of you perhaps have already heard what it contains, but I would just like to read it to you. " ... We regard the agreement signed last night and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again".[3]

* * *

My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour.

I believe it is peace for our time...

Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.

Neville Chamberlain.

Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain showing off the Munich Pact with Adolf Hitler that granted Germany territorial concessions in Czechoslovakia and which set the stage for increased German avarice and World War Two.

November 23, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War.

Regarding the articles of surrender being pushed by Donald Trump on Ukraine, a CST headline:

KYIV’S ALLIES PUSH BACK ON US PEACE PLAN

The claimant of Presidential Power, Дональд Трамп, stated that the proposal was his "final offer", as if the US is doing the offering.  Secretary of State Rubio, who always looks like he's caught in a bad dream and who is probably the only significant member of the cabinet who is not a complete today, claimed that the plan is a "wish list", not a plan.

Independent Maine Sen. Angus King said earlier in the day that the plan is “one of the most serious geopolitical mistakes in my lifetime" comparing it to the 1938 Munich Pact.  Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said in statement, “if Administration officials are more concerned with appeasing Putin than securing real peace, then the President ought to find new advisors.” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said McConnell’s criticism didn’t go far enough. “Putin is a murderer, a rapist and an assassin. . .  We should not do anything that makes him feel like he has a win here.” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called the plan an “outrage.”

Israel v. Hamas in Gaza

Israel hit Gaza yesterday with airstrikes.

November 24, 2025

Israel v. Hezbollah

Israel launched a raid in Lebanon Saturday that killed Hezbollah's chief of staff.

November 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Steve Witkoff: Hi Yuri.

Yuri Ushakov: Yeah Steve hi, how are you?

SW: Good Yuri. How you doing?

YU: I am ok. Congratulations my friend.

SW: Thank you.

YU: You made a great job. Just a great job. Thank you so much. Thank you, thank you.

SW: Thank you Yuri and thanks for your support. I know your country supported it and I thank you.

YU: Yes, yes, yes. Yes. You know that’s why we suspend the organization of first Russian-Arabic summit.

SW: Yes.

YU: Yeah, because we think that you are making the real job there in the region.

SW: Well listen. I am going to tell you something. I think, I think if we can get the Russia-Ukraine thing solved, everybody’ll be jumping for joy.

YU: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you need to solve only one problem. [laughs]

SW: What?

YU: Russian-Ukrainian war.

SW: I know! How do we get that solved?

YU: My friend, I just want your advice. Do you think that it will be useful if our bosses will talk on the phone?

SW: Yes, I do.

YU: You do. And when you think it could be possible?

SW: I think as soon as you suggest, my guy is ready to do it.

YU: Ok, ok.

SW: Yuri, Yuri, here’s what I would do. My recommendation.

YU: Yes, please.

SW: I would make the call and just reiterate that you congratulate the president on this achievement, that you supported it, you supported it, that you respect that he is a man of peace and you’re just, you’re really glad to have seen it happen. So I would say that. I think from that it’s going to be a really good call.

Because — let me tell you what I told the President. I told the president that you - that the Russian Federation has always wanted a peace deal. That’s my belief. I told the president I believe that. And I believe the question is — the issue is is that we have two nations that are having a hard time coming to a compromise and when we do, we’re going to have a peace deal. I’m even thinking that maybe we set out like a 20-point peace proposal, just like we did in Gaza. We put a 20-point Trump plan together that was 20 points for peace and I’m thinking maybe we do the same thing with you. My point is this...

YU: Ok, ok my friend. I think that very point our leaders could discuss. Hey Steve, I agree with you that he will congratulate, he will say that Mr. Trump is a real peace man and so and so. That he will say.

SW: But here’s what I think would be amazing.

YU: Ok, ok.

SW: What if, what if... hear me out...

YU: I will discuss that with my boss and then I come back to you. Ok?

SW: Yeah because listen to what I’m saying. I just want you to say, maybe just to say this to President Putin, because you know I have the deepest respect for President Putin.

YU: Yes, Yes.

SW: Maybe he says to President Trump: you know, Steve and Yuri discussed a very similar 20-point plan to peace and that could be something that we think might move the needle a little bit, we’re open to those sorts of things — to explore what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done. Now, me to you, I know what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done: Donetsk and maybe a land swap somewhere. But I’m saying instead of talking like that, let’s talk more hopefully because I think we’re going to get to a deal here. And I think Yuri, the president will give me a lot of space and discretion to get to the deal.

YU: I see...

SW: ...so if we can create that opportunity that after this I talked to Yuri and we had a conversation I think that could lead to big stuff.

YU: Ok, that sounds good. Sounds good.

SW: And here’s one more thing: Zelenskiy is coming to the White House on Friday.

YU: I know that. [chuckles]

SW: I will go to that meeting because they want me there, but I think if possible we have the call with your boss before that Friday meeting.

YU: Before, before — yeah?

SW: Correct.

YU: Ok, ok. I got your advice. So I discuss that with my boss and then I come back to you, ok?

SW: Ok Yuri, I’ll speak to you soon.

YU: Great, great. Thank you so much. Thanks you.

SW: Bye, bye.

YU: Bye.

[Call Ends]

From Bloomberg.

This comes at a time when the illegitimate Trump Administration, headed by a man who committed actual sedition, is threatening to prosecute members of Congress for sedition.

November 28, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin termed the Trump surrender terms a "starting point" and threatened to overrun Ukraine with Russia's larger army if Ukraine did not come to terms.

It should be plain by now that Russia's army is crap.  It has been since some point before 1900.  If it could overrun Ukraine, it would have by now.  If all aid was cut off to it, and Russia then overran Ukraine, a guerrilla war would then ensue.

cont:

US. v. Venezuelan boats

From the Washington Post:

Hegseth order on first Caribbean boat strike, officials say: Kill them all

As two men clung to a stricken, burning ship targeted by SEAL Team 6, the Joint Special Operations commander followed the defense secretary’s order to leave no survivors

 

So now we kill people in the water.  Something we decried in World War One and World War Two.

A U-boat commander was tried and executed for that after the Second World War.

Heinz-Wilhelm Eck.  He ordered his crew to kill survivors and was convicted of a war crime and sentenced to death as a result.

November 30, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

Trump threatened to close Venezuelan air space.

cont:

The United Kingdom no longer shares intelligence with the US in the Caribbean due to the illegal actions of the United States in this region.

December 5, 2025

Congo

Rwanda and Congo signed an agreement aimed at bringing peace in the region, but analysts are skeptical of it holding.

United States v. Venezuela

U.S. Navy Adm. Frank M. Bradley denied in front of Congress that there'd been a "kill them all" order given by Hegseth.

December 8, 2025

United States v. Venezuela 

Members of Congress appeared on the weekend shows about the murder of two men in the fist strike who were on a remnant of the destroyed boat.

Tom Cotton showed himself the most extreme, maintaining that they were a dangers as they were attempting to upright the boat and reload the cargo, which is absurd.  He pretty much took the position that killing drug runners through military force is perfectly okay.

If that's the GOP position, and it apparently is in Congress, they should just state that.  The problem is, of course, that Trump just pardoned convicted drug runner, former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández.  Cotton claimed not to know the details of that while berating the host of This Week.

Add Cotton to the list if individuals who are temperamentally unsuited to be in Congress.

Thailand v. Cambodia

The countries entered into a ceasefire agreement recently which Trump claims as one of his "eight wars".  Thailand bombed Cambodian positions on their disputed border yesterday.

December 11, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

The US seized the Guyana-flagged "Very Large Crude Carrier" that was loaded covertly with 1.1 million barrels of oil in mid-November.   The ship was headed for Cuba, but has been anchored offshore Venezuela since being loaded with oil.  Half of the country's oil production goes to Cuba.

Why did we stop it?

This isn't clear, actually.  The government claims the ship is involved in the illegal transportation of oil.

December 14, 2025

US (and Syria) v ISIL

An attack in Syria killed U.S. troops and civilians.

Israel v. Hamas

An attack by Hamas wounded Israeli soldiers and Israel retaliated by killing a top Hamas figure.

December 15, 2025

US (and Syria) v ISIL

The soldiers killed in Syria were National Guardsmen:

Army identifies 2 Iowa National Guardsmen killed in Syria attack

Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard and Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar were killed on Dec. 13 in Palmyra, Syria.

December 16, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

And so Mad King Donald inches us that much closer to a war we'll still be waging when he's out of office.

And land? WTF is he talking about?

December 17, 2025

United States v. Venezuela

CST  headline:

Related threads:

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 111th Edition. Letting Healthcare Fail, How War Really Works, Those Epstein Files, Calling names, Bear Care.

The murder of a National Guardsmen in Washington D.C. "If any question why we died, Tell them, because our fathers lied."

Labels: 2020s, 2025, 2025 Occupation of Washington D.C., It was because of the War in Afghanistan, The Second Trump Administration, The War in Afghanistan, West Virginia National Guard, Yeoman's Fourth Law of History

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 8. The Tin Pot Dictator Edition.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, Crime, Donald Trump, Russia, Russo Ukrainian War, Smedley Butler, The Second Trump Administration, Ukraine, United States, Venezuela, War, War Crimes, Wars and rumors of wars

Seemingly missed in the story of prices at the pump being down is that the rig count is down too. And the coming economic storm in Wyoming.

Down 6.32% compared to this time last year, which means that less petroleum exploration is going on.

Presidents seem to always want to take the credit for the price of petroleum going down.  They also eschew taking the blame, and correctly at that, when the price goes up.  But because Americans are economic ignoramuses, this story repeats again and again.

Wyomingites tend to follow the price of petroleum as it directly correlates to jobs in the state.  The price must be over $58.00/bbl for Wyoming petroleum oil to break even, and really has to be over $62.00/bbl for it to be profitable.

Today it's at $55.95 for WTI and $59.72 for Brent.

Oh oh.

That doesn't seem to have made the news, but it has started to impact the field.

Part of the reason that it is going down is that investors are worried about the Trump buffoonery in Ukraine, where he's siding with the Russians, and because the US has taken up seizing Venezuelan ships carrying oil.  The latter might actually be justified for reasons having nothing to do with the murdering of drug boat crews, and it's interesting to note that the ship that was seized was seized by the Coast Guard, not the Navy which is relying on the Nuremberg defense for its actions in spite of the Government war manual actually referencing the murder of distressed crews as against the laws of war.  On the latter, Americans have become so psychologically fragile since the Vietnam War that we can be assured former sailors will be reporting that they have PTSD due to their role as hitmen in a few years, but that's another topic.  So, basically, Trump can take some credit for lower prices, but it's basically due to international investors figuring he's a rogue bufador, which he is.

Trump getting out his big box of GI Joes isn't the only reason, however.  Lots of refineries completed turnarounds, which are scheduled years in advance, and OPEC has an oil glut, things that would be causing Democrats to claim that Harris had lowered the price of oil, had things worked out differently.

So here's the thing.  How long will this slide go, and how low will it go?

Rumors, and that's what they are, are circulating that there's hopes that oil will go down to $30/bbl.  I  don't see how that can happen, absent an economic depression, and if that did occur, that's exactly what would occur in Wyoming.

For that matter, if oil stays this low, that's what's going to happen here.  

I wonder if all the MAGA loyalist here will be cheering in that event?

If oil stays down around $55/bbl for about three months, the oil economy in Wyoming will be very badly damaged.  Natural gas will prop some of it up, of course, and we really are more a natural gas explorating state now rather than a crude oil one. Still, crude is the rig count driver.

And if that happens, all the alternative energy projects which existed under the Biden Administration are drying up, the attack on them lead by the Wyoming Freedom Caucus and people like Chuck Gray.  Coal prices are up, but not so much that anyone ought to be deluded enough to thinking that there's going to be a second era of King Coal.   Meanwhile, the Freedom Caucus is gutting the state's ability to fund anything.

And that is probably where we should close.  The Freedom Caucus basically would like the entire US to be a variant of 1930s Appalachia.  If this trend continues, we may get to be.