Showing posts with label Russo Ukrainian War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russo Ukrainian War. Show all posts

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 3. The peace didn't break out on day one edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


In peace, sons bury their fathers. In war, fathers bury their sons. 

Herodotus.

May 12, 2025

Turkey v. The Kurds.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PPK, announced that it will disband and disarm after forty years of conflict.

May 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump posted the following yesterday:

I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever. I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia! Likewise, President Zelenskyy is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop. This is a War that would never have started if I were President. This is Zelenskyy’s, Putin’s, and Biden’s War, not “Trump’s,” I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred.

More and more it's impossible not simply regard Trump as stupid.

June 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine pulled off a sort of scaled down Pearl Harbor, or Battle of Taranto, or perhaps attack on Port Arthur today/yesterday by mounting a major drone attack on Russia air assets inside of  Russia itself.

The drones were  smuggled into Russia and launched from cabin launchers in what will go down as one of the most successful clandestine internal actions of all time.  At least 40 Russian aircraft were destroyed on the ground.

June 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's security service, the SBU, struck the Crimean Bridge with underwater explosives, damaging the structure.

June 8, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Donald Trump has federalized some units of the California National Guard and ordered them to Los Angeles in response to violent immigration protests there.

A President federalizing a Guard unit ab initio like this is very unusual.

June 9, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Absolutely nuts:

Press Release | June 9, 2025

USNORTHCOM statement on additional military personnel in the Los Angeles Area

U.S. Northern Command Public Affairs

PETERSON SPACE FORCE BASE, Colo. – U.S. Northern Command has activated the Marine infantry battalion that was placed in an alert status over the weekend. Approximately 700 Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division will seamlessly integrate with the Title 10 forces under Task Force 51 who are protecting federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area. 

The activation of the Marines is intended to provide Task Force 51 with adequate numbers of forces to provide continuous coverage of the area in support of the lead federal agency. 

Task Force 51 is U.S. Army North’s Contingency Command Post, which provides a rapidly deployable capability to partner with civil authorities and DoD entities in response to a Homeland Defense and Homeland Security Operations. It is commanded by Maj. Gen. Scott M. Sherman.  

Task Force 51 is comprised of approximately 2,100 National Guard soldiers in a Title 10 status and 700 active-duty Marines. Task Force 51 forces have been trained in de-escalation, crowd control, and standing rules for the use of force. 

 June 10, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Trump is doubling the size of the California National Guard deployment to Los Angeles.

June 11, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Californian National Guardsmen found their role expanded to protecting immigration agents as they made arrests in Los Angeles.

My guess is that this is going to be a long deployment, or that the Courts will find the this use illegal rapidly.

The deployment of military forces to California is costing the US $134,000,000.

Wyoming's Congressman predictably came down on the side of Donald Trump:

Hageman Blasts Newsom For Putting ‘Rioters Over The Side Of Law And Order’

Texas, not the United States, has deployed the Texas Army National Guard to Austin in advance of anticipated ICE raids there.

June 13, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Israel launched what are being termed "massive" air attacks against Iran's nuclear program and military command structure.  Initial reports are that the raid were highly successful.

US Civil Unrest

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled the Trump's direct Guard deployment was illegal, violating the Tenth Amendment and exceeding Trump’s statutory authority.  An appeals court stayed enforcement of the order upon review.

cont:

Israel v. Iran

The Israeli attack expanded today to nuclear installations.  Operation Rising Lion also took out a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps figures.

Iran is presently attempting to retaliate with missles.

June 14, 2025

US Civil Unrest

The Governor of Missouri activated his state's National Guard in advance of today's protests.

Related Threads:

Misusing the National Guard.

Last Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 2. The world is not a development opportunity edition.

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 2. The world is not a development opportunity edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

Winston Churchill

Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.

Donald Trump on skipping the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery.

March 2, 2025

Turkey v. Kurds

Following an opening from Turkey's strongman ruler Erdogan, the PKK is suspending armed operations.

US Mexican Border

The US is deploying an additional 3,000 troops to the Mexican border.

March 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Hegseth Orders Pentagon to Stop Offensive Cyberoperations Against Russia

Absolutely stupid.

US v. Al Qaeda

On Feb. 23, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria, targeting and killing Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, the senior military leader of the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din (HaD), an Al-Qaeda affiliate.

US Central Command.

March 4, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The US suspended military aid to Ukraine.  Europe began immediately to fill in and J. D. Vance warned, based on nothing at all, that only Trump could negotiate peace.

More likely, this accelerates the eclipse of the United States.

March 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Trump Cabal cut off intelligence access to Ukraine.  Shortly after this, Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles.

March 8, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

When his country called, Donald Trump called up his doctor who found that he ineligible to go into harms way due to shin splints.  

Like a lot of the 1960s "not me" crowd, to include Dick Cheney and Joe Biden, this hasn't meant, in the case of Donald Trump, that he doesn't mind ordering killing done. Trump's taken into almost new territory, however, by withdrawing intelligence from an ally dependent up on us while his political party, which once stalwartly opposed foreign aggression by countries like Russia and North Korea, largely stands by.

The United States now has blood on its hands, and through betrayal:

US intel ban leads to heavy Ukrainian losses

A lot of people who admire Trump believe he has a big business head and that he's bring this to politics.  Why this is a good thing is never actually mentioned. Government isn't a business.  Beyond that, is Trump really a good businessman?  We have very little evidence that the is.  What we have evidence that he was born very wealthy and its well known that those born into great wealth are highly unlikely to lose it all.  Very wealthy families that do lose everything usually do so in the course of a couple of generations.  It takes that long to dissipate the wealth.  My guess is that this is happening to the Trump fortune right now.  Big fortunes are lost through classic means, spending on largess and women usually.  My guess is that for those who are looking at the trump's fifty to seventy five years hence, you'll find that they're still rich, but not vastly so, and probably working mundane rich people's jobs.

Anyhow, one of the big myths about Trump is that he's a great negotiator . What he is, is a bully.  Since returning to the Oval Office he's applied his bully skills to numerous things and its really start to fail.  The tariffs are a good example.  Canada has now reached the complete "fuck you" stage with Trump and he can't do one single thing about it.  Probably by summer the Mid West will have rolling blackouts due to an electrical blackout. The dimwit Trump has promised to get the XL pipeline rolling again and build one extending all the way to Alaska.  My prediction is that the XL if completed under Trump will be filled with air as it was supposed to transport Canadian crude.  Donny probably doesn't know that.  The Canadians are never going to allow the US to build a pipeline on their soil.

On the war, Ukrainian President Zylensky was brought to the US to surrender title to his country's minerals as an extorted payment for ongoing support.  The meeting went famously wrong as J. D. Vance, now with in a hairsbreadth of being President, showed himself way out of his element and engaged in an argument with the embattled Ukrainian leader.  Trump, coming to Vance's rescue, once again showed his intellect is really lacking and his verbal skills are that of a child.  Since that time, using tactics that he learned as a real estate magnate, he's attempted to bully Ukraine into submission by withholding arms and intelligence to the country.  

In blunt terms, he figures that getting Ukrainians killed will make them pliant.

It's monstrously wrong.

And its not even artful.

There's pretty good evidence at this point that the bloom is really off the rose of this administration and that even within the administration itself things are beginning to breakdown.  Marco Rubio got into a yelling match with weirdo Elon Musk and actually prevailed.  Another cabinet member had to take babbling Trump off the phone and negotiate a deal with Trudeau himself.  Trump is slowly on his way out, but how much damage he does on the way out is yet to be seen.

At any rate, somewhere on the far side of things thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are joining the souls of those of the Army of the Republic of Vietnam to lament being betrayed by the United States.  But at the same time, the departed spirits of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger can take solace that their betrayal of an ally wasn't the work of a demented toddler.

Here in the US, the hardcore MAGA's are all saying it'll work out, or coming up with reason why betrayal is okay.  It won't, and it isn't.

March 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia rejected lil Don's suggestion of a cease fire.

March 16, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The US struck the Houthis yesterday, who vowed retaliation.

March 17, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Hegseth Says Campaign Against Houthis Will be 'Unrelenting' Until Hostilities Cease

March 17, 2025 | By Matthew Olay

During a media interview yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. military will continue to tactically engage Iranian-backed Houthis until they stop acting aggressively against U.S. ships in the region.

Hegseth commented on the topic following President Donald J. Trump's order for U.S. Central Command to launch multiple airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen, March 15, 2025. 

"Freedom of navigation is basic; it's a core national interest," Hegseth said, adding that the current campaign is about restoring deterrents in the region in addition to freedom of navigation. 

"The minute the Houthis say, 'We'll stop shooting at your ships [and] we'll stop shooting at your drones,' this campaign will end but, until then, it will be unrelenting," he continued. 

Hegseth also said the airstrikes were meant to draw Iran's attention. 

"The message is clear to Iran … Your support of the Houthis needs to end immediately. We will hold you accountable as the sponsor of this proxy, and I echo [the president's] statement [that] we will not be nice about it," Hegseth said.

The Houthis have been acting aggressively in the Red Sea region since October 2023, when a U.S. Navy destroyer had to intercept three land-attack cruise missiles fired by the Houthis toward Israel. 

Since then, the Houthis have launched over 100 drone and missile attacks targeting American and allied ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, resulting in many commercial ships having to alter their routes to avoid the region at a tremendous commercial cost. 

Hegseth likened the severe economic impact of the Houthi aggression in the region to "being held hostage by a terrorist organization" and then pointed out that the Trump administration has indeed labeled the Houthis as such. 

"To the Houthis: [the airstrikes weren't] a one-night thing … This is about stopping the shooting at assets in that critical waterway to reopen the freedom of navigation, which is a core national interest of the United States," Hegseth said, before again reemphasizing that Iran needs to "back off" from enabling the Houthis. 

Hegseth said Iran and its additional military proxies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — are in a "weakened state." 

"But it doesn't mean they still don't have the desire [for aggression]," he said, adding that Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. 

"Iran must get that clear message and negotiate the end of their pursuit for nuclear weapons because … President Trump has said clearly that they will not get a bomb," Hegseth said.

March 19, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Israel is back to bombarding Gaza, so the cease fire did not hold.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin agreed to an infrastructure ceasefire, which it turned around and immediately violated.

cont:

Israel has launched a new ground invasion into Gaza after breaking ceasefire

March 23, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The rocket and counterstrike feature of this war in Lebanon has returned.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has hit some major Russian air assets and fuel assets in the last couple of days.  Russia had hit Kyiv.

March 24, 2025

The world found out shortly before 2 p.m. eastern time on March 15 that the United States was bombing Houthi targets across Yemen.

I, however, knew two hours before the first bombs exploded that the attack might be coming. The reason I knew this is that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m. The plan included precise information about weapons packages, targets, and timing.

This is going to require some explaining.

The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans.  Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic.

March 25, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump administration petulantly denied texting war plans to The Atlantic, while insulting the recipient, while it simultaneously became more obvious that in fact it had occurred.

The US hit Houthi targets in Yemen again.

March 30, 2025

It's been a bad week, foreign policy wise, for the supposed great negotiator, Donald Trump.

United States v. Iran

In a press interview today Donald Trump threated to bomb Iran to the hilt if it does not enter into a nuclear deal with the United States.

Iran has replied it won't enter into direct talks with the US, but might be willing to discuss this matter in some other fashion.

Russo Ukrainian War

The great dealmaker also expressed frustration, or rather that he was "pissed off", with Putin, accusing him of lying and not wanting a peace.

Apparently Trump is the last guy on Earth who didn't already know this, besides flunky sycophants.

He's threating secondary tariffs.

Middle Eastern War.

Revealed on the leaked texts VP Vance was concerned that Trump didn't understand what the bombing.  He said:

3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message.

I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.

April 2, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel has announced its intends to seize "large" areas of land in Gaza. 

April 8, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel now controls, once again, 50% of Gaza.

Russo Ukrainian War

ISW reports that  Russian advances have slowed to a crawl.

April 13, 2025

Mexican Border

Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

Presidential Memoranda

April 11, 2025

NATIONAL SECURITY PRESIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM/NSPM-4

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

               THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR

               THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

               THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY

SUBJECT:      Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

As the Chief Executive and Commander in Chief, the United States Constitution empowers me to direct the various elements of the executive branch to protect our homeland and ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the United States in the manner I deem most efficient and effective, consistent with applicable law.  Our southern border is under attack from a variety of threats.  The complexity of the current situation requires that our military take a more direct role in securing our southern border than in the recent past.  Through Executive Order 14167 of January 20, 2025 (Clarifying the Military’s Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States), I assigned the Armed Forces of the United States the military missions of repelling the invasion and sealing the United States southern border from unlawful entry to maintain the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.  This memorandum provides additional guidance on securing the southern border to the heads of certain executive departments. 

Section 1.  Policy. (a) to accomplish the military missions described in Executive Order 14167, and to ensure the safety and security of the military and other Federal personnel in areas of military operations within Federal lands along the southern border, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall take all appropriate actions:

(i)    to provide for the use and jurisdiction by the Department of Defense over such Federal lands, including the Roosevelt Reservation and excluding Federal Indian Reservations, that are reasonably necessary to enable military activities directed in this memorandum, including border-barrier construction and emplacement of detection and monitoring equipment; and

(ii)   to provide for transfer and acceptance of jurisdiction over such Federal lands in accordance with applicable law to enable military activities directed in this memorandum to occur on a military installation under the jurisdiction of the Department of Defense and for the designation of such Federal lands as National Defense Areas by the Secretary of Defense.

(b)  The Secretary of the Interior shall allow the Secretary of Defense to use those portions of the Roosevelt Reservation not yet transferred or withdrawn under this memorandum. In accordance with Proclamation 10886 of January 20, 2025 (Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States), 43 U.S.C. 155 is hereby invoked and the Secretary of the Interior may make withdrawals, reservations, and restrictions of public lands to provide for the utilization of public lands by the Department of Defense to address the emergency at the southern border, without regard to any limitation on withdrawals otherwise applicable under the terms of the Engle Act, 43 U.S.C. 155-158.

(c)  The Secretary of Defense may determine those military activities that are reasonably necessary and appropriate to accomplish the mission assigned in Executive Order 14167 and that are necessary to protect and maintain the security of military installations, consistent with section 2672 of title 10, United States Code, and the longstanding authority of a military installation commander to exclude persons from a military installation, as recognized in section 21 of the Internal Security Act of 1950 (50 U.S.C. 797) and 18 U.S.C. 1382.

(d)  In carrying out activities under this memorandum, members of the Armed Forces will follow rules for the use of force prescribed by the Secretary of Defense.

Sec. 2.  Phased Implementation. The Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security will initially implement this memorandum on a limited sector of Federal lands designated by the Secretary of Defense.  Within 45 days of the date of this memorandum, the Secretary of Defense shall assess this initial phase.  At any time, the Secretary of Defense may extend activities under this memorandum to additional Federal lands along the southern border in coordination with the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President and Homeland Security Advisor, and other executive departments and agencies as appropriate.

Sec. 3.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this memorandum shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)    the authority of the Secretary of Defense to authorize and request that State Governors order members of the National Guard under authority of title 32 of the United States Code to conduct Department of Defense activities, including as appropriate to support law enforcement activities under the responsibility of the Attorney General or the Secretary of Homeland Security, if requested by such official;

(ii)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(iii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This memorandum shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This memorandum is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

April 18, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US is about to give up attempting to broker a peace in the Ruisso Ukrainian War.

Apparently his boss, the great deal maker, and friend of thug Putin, isn't as effective at deal making as he claimed.

April 23, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians and it’s time for them to either say ‘yes’ or for the United States to walk away from this process.

J. D. Vance.

So much for Trump's negotiating skills.

April 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the war in private in the Sistine Chapel, before Pope Francis' funeral.

April 27, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are asserting they have expelled all Ukrainian troops from the Kursk oblast.

May 3, 2025

Mexican Border

The administration declared a  "Texas National Defense Area" spanning 63 miles east of El Paso along the Texas-New Mexico border, following having declared a similar 170-mile-long zone created in New Mexico last month.

May 6, 2025

India v. Pakistan

India launched airstrikes inside of Pakistan on sites its alleges are terrorist locations.  This follows a recent terrorist attack in India.

May 7, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Trump is claiming the Houthis capitulated in the face of US and UK bombing raids and will cease attacking shipping.

May 8, 2025

India v. Pakistan

Pakistan is claiming that a very large scale air battle took place between India and Pakistan over the past 24 hours.

May 10, 2025

India v. Pakistan

Pakistan strikes Indian bases with Fatah missiles

Cont:

Both contestants have agreed to a ceasefire, after having run right up to the brink of full scale war.

Donald Trump implied the US had a role in this, although its not at all clear that this is really the case.

And with this entry, this edition of Wars and Rumors of War concludes.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Random snippets. Nero's Court.

Washington has become Nero’s court, with an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers and a jester high on ketamine. (...) We were at war with a dictator, we are now at war with a dictator backed by a traitor.

French Senator Claude Malhuret.

Monday, March 3, 2025

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. 77th Edition. A bridge too far?

March 3, 2025

Just watching the reaction, even in the Trumpified GOP, to J. D. Bowman (Vance) berate Ukrainian President Zelensky to be followed by buffoonish Donald Trump do the same, leads me to suspect that this may have been their bridge too far.

Bowman is no doubt waiting for his next transitional opportunity so that he can replace Trump in 2026, which he has a good chance of doing, but if he doesn't pull that off, his political career appears to be shot.  Marco Rubio's has been flushed down the toilet.   And people are now wondering why Donny let his pet attack the sitting President of another nation.  

And more than ever before, there's a lot of commentary regarding Trump being an outright Russian asset.  

An amusing item, I'd note, occurred on  Face the Nation when the moderator asked a Republican Senator why Hegseth ordered cyber operations to stand down.  FWIW, the question didn't make it clear that it was offensive cyber operations against Russia, but the Senator outright said "not so".

Again, it was offensive operations, but, in the words of the sage Bart Simpson, au contraire mon frère.

The 40 year old Bowman took off for Vermont after berating Zelensky and accompanied protesters lining the streets, so now he really gets to enjoy the big time, with that meaning he'll draw protesters on an increasing basis, the way LBJ did in the 60s.  Bowman is used a great deal as a mouthpiece by Donny, whose usual oral utterings verge on babble.

Of course, Trump went on to his nexts brain fart, a strategic crypto reserve for the United States that will include bitcoin and other cyber currencies.

Then he went golfing in Florida, burning up thousands of U.S. tax dollars to do so.

The eclipse of the Mango Sun has been predicted many times, but something shifted over the weekend.  A lot of people don't really want to live in the real estate development world where a spoiled not very smart brat born with a silver spoon in his mouth bases the entire economy on transactions.  And some are beginning to wonder why it is that we're bending over for Putin.

Bowman is probably contemplating his next chameleon like change.  I frankly wouldn't be too surprised to see him routinely denouncing Trump with in a few months.


Last edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. 77th Edition. Inside Trump's very tiny window on the world.

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

And so we're on to a new year.

Armenian woman kneeling beside her dead child in Syria during the Battle of Aleppo.

Heading into 2025, the big news remains the Russo Ukrainian War.  Other wars are going on, of course, including the Middle Eastern War, as we have termed it here, in which the United States is an occasional belligerent.

As the world is just a few days away from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, there's good reason to be concerned about the impact this will have on various conflicts, the Russo Ukrainian War in particular.  Trump has long been a Putin fan boy for reasons which remain very difficult to discern.  Over the past three years Russia has proven that it is, at best, a weak regional power.  Putin is bankrupting his country and his armed forces have been reduced to such a level that he's imported North Korean forces to aid his, with North Korean being a Stalinist Clown College.

Ukraine has managed to hold on against its much larger neighbor in no small part due to largescale Western support.  Europe has actually, at this point, contributed more to Ukraine than the US has.  US leadership and support has been critical, but its often missed that the US has used the war to clear out obsolescent stocks of arms and, in fact, could do much more of this if it wished to, and should.  Trump, however, has been generally hostile to Ukraine and lovey dovey to Putin.  His relationship to the Russian head of state is so peculiar that it has long raised questions about what's behind it.

Trump, of course, who didn't serve in his nation's war when he was of military age, claims to abhor war and he may in fact have that view.  He generally doesn't like military men that much, and he's sufficiently wealth and self centered that he frankly might just not grasp that there are people who are willing to fight and die for their country.  Be that as it may, however, like many of the populist camp, quite a few of whom are strongly influenced by a certain strain of Evangelical Protestantism, he has an "Israel can do no wrong" view.  There is no reason to believe, therefore, that the incoming administration won't essentially give Israel a free hand in whatever it wants to do in the ongoing struggle in the Middle East.

The US, it might be noted, retains a small number of forces in Iraq and Syria.  Trump made sounds about pulling US forces out of Syria when he was first elected, but he didn't.  He's made some statements about the US having no role in Syria now, but the US forces in Syria aren't sufficient to impact the outcome of the war there, and are there only to address ISIL in the region.  There is, therefore, no real way to know how the change in administrations will impact that.

In terms of prognostications, its notable that Russia's 2024 effort in Ukraine have produced no real results.  That Putin isn't trying to commit larger forces to the region and is instead allowing his forces to be bled is telling.  He probably can't do more.  Ukraine, however, remains unable to push Russia out. The situation therefore depends nearly entirely on what the US and Western Europe does.

The commitment of North Korean troops was always boing to be a failure and will be.  North Korea is much more of a paper tiger than many suppose.  Mostly, a lot of North Koreans will get killed. Those who return to North Korea will have been exposed to a partially westernized Russia. Stalinist have always feared that as it means there's now a population that knows things could be much better somewhere else.  Moreover, those returning will be elite troops.  They'll be much like French Algerian troops who returned home to Algeria after fighting in Indochina, and that won't be good for the Communist Hermit Kingdom.

Right now, in regard to Syria, there's really no real reason to hope that the country breaks into a western democracy.  At least some period of internecine strife appears likely, absent a massive intervention by Turkey, which we really do not want.

January 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

In a sort of odd even in the ongoing war, a deal between Ukraine and Russia which allowed for the transport of natural gas across Ukraine into Europe, in spite of the war, expired this past week and, as a result, Ukraine shut the pipelines down, which makes perfect sense.

This creates, for the most part a less dire situation than a person might suppose.  Europe receives 5% of its natural gas from Russia.  Another pipeline that does not go through Ukraine does exist.

Unless you are in Moldova.

This is the only way the breakaway Transnistria region gets gas, and the impact there has been immediate.

January 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

Last edition:

In this instance, of course, the last edition was, from last year.

January 8, 2025

United States v. Panama

United States v. Denmark

Today's headline in the Tribune:

TRUMP TALKS USING MILITARY IN TAKEOVER

Trump appears to be demented, and the US acting illegally in a war against Panama and NATO Ally Denmark should be taken seriously.

January 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Donald Trump's special envoy for the Russo Ukrainian War, who of course right now is simply a private citizen and may always be, has declared that Trump will end the war within 100 days of taking office.

Originally it was within 24 hours of taking office.

After that, it was within 24 hours of being elected.

Of course, a person would have had to have drank the KoolAide to believe either of the first two, and not to heavily doubt the third.

A really interesting look at North Korean troops in the war:

Troops Captured by Ukraine Provide Rare Glimpse Into North Korea’s Military

January 15, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

Hamas and Israel appear to have agreed to a complicated cease fire.

January 20, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

The first prisoners and hostages were released yesterday.

No more wars?

That was the promise of the Trump campaign, along with the price of groceries going down (they won't) and the war in Ukraine ending within 24 hours after his nomination to the GOP ticket (that didn't happen).

No more wars isn't shaping up to be true either.  

Two huge stories broke yesterday on Face the Nation, but with all going on, they aren't getting that much attention.

They are, in the style of this thread:

Israel v. Iran?

Lindsey Graham was on Face the Nation yesterday begging for Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites.  He will be "engaging" Trump on this topic.

United States v. Mexican Cartels?

Incoming National Security Advisor strongly hinted that the US will be listing two Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and implied that the US will be intervening in Mexico to take them on.

I'm frankly amazed this isn't a banner headline.  

If this goes in the direction that it seems to be, one of the purposes of having Graham and Waltz on the day before the inauguration on the best of the three weekend news shows is to get the information out, in a sort of early and curve ball fashion, that we're headed into to major military actions.  We apparently are going to urge the Netanyahu administration to basically finish the Iranian regime off, or at least decapitate its nuclear potential, and we're going into Mexico with special forces and aircraft, the way we've fought in Syrian and Iraq over the past two decades, but in a much more substantial fashion.

Whatever a person thinks of these proposals, Iran is not going to go gently into the night, although you could argue, as some have, that its down on its knees and needs to be wiped out.  

Mexico, no matter what the incoming Trump administration might think, does not want troops on its soil again for the third time.  It would likely fight back against an intervention, just like it did in 1916, even when the intervention is against an internal enemy, just like it was in 1916.

At any rate, at least right now, it would appear that the incoming administration isn't really against wars.  It's just in favor of different, and bigger, wars.

January 24, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War.

North Korea is sending more cannon fodder to the war.

This won't serve to turn the tide in favor of Russia, and if it continues, it will destroy the core of the North Korean army and leave an embittered veterans class.  The real threat to Ukraine now is Donald Trump.  So far Trump seems to have assumed that his pal Putin would simply end the war because Donald was elected, or perhaps due to something in the relationship between them (Trump is undeniably a Russian asset, the question is what kind of Russian asset he is, bought and paid for or by personal inclination).  Trump's present plans in regard to his first broken campaign promise is to cause the Saudi's to lower the price of oil as that will make Russia's too expensive to buy, apparently.

January 26, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump Interregnum is resuming shipments of 2,000 lbs bombs to Israel on the basis that "they bought and paid for them", reflecting his sad view of the world.

Whether a person supports Israel or not, already leopards are eating the faces of left wing pro Palestinian voters and Arab American voters in the US who didn't support Harris.  Trump will make Biden look like a peace protester as far as Israel is concerned, and the far right is packed with the element that feels Israel can do no wrong.

Trump also is proposing to Jordan and Egypt that they take in the Gazans so that Gaza can be "cleaned out".  While there is in fact some merit to the Gazans being relocated (we suggested this earlier), both countries have rejected the idea completely and Trump's phone call diplomacy is working no more successfully here than it did with his call to Denmark's leader about his bizarre demand for Greenland.

January 28, 2025

Congo

The Congo River Alliance, backed by Rwanda, entered the country and took a major city this week.  Made up of 17 parties, the principal member is the U.S. and UN sanctioned March 23 Movement.  I have no idea what they are seeking.

January 31, 2025

Congo

M23 rebels seized control of Goma and are advancing toward the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. 

February 1, 2025

US v. ISIL

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Statement on U.S. Africa Command Strikes in Somalia

Feb. 1, 2025

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth statement on U.S. Africa Command strikes in Somalia

At President Trump's direction and in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, I authorized U.S. Africa Command to conduct coordinated airstrikes today targeting ISIS-Somalia operatives in the Golis mountains.

Our initial assessment is that multiple operatives were killed in the airstrikes and no civilians were harmed. This action further degrades ISIS's ability to plot and conduct terrorist attacks threatening U.S. citizens, our partners, and innocent civilians and sends a clear signal that the United States always stands ready to find and eliminate terrorists who threaten the United States and our allies, even as we conduct robust border-protection and many other operations under President Trump's leadership.

February 6, 2025

Arab Americans For Trump has changed its name to Arab Americans for Peace following Trump's proposal to remove the Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into an American territory.

Basically, they realized they'd been dumbasses, which was plenty obvious to start with.

Israel has of course leaped right on this lunatic suggestion and instructed its military to be prepared to allow Palestinians to leave, although freedom to leave a region is generally regarded as a human right.

It should be worth noting right now that a US presence of this type guarantees death will come to Americans involved in it, and we will now be a direct combatant in a nearly 80 year old guerilla war in the region.

I'd also note that a lot of far right evangelicals have a very peculiar view of Israel, and we now have a Secretary of Defense who is all tatted up with appropriated Crusader symbols, although a Crusader coming back form the dead would regard him as a heretic.

Oh well, what could go wrong?  Leopards won't eat our faces.

February 17, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War, Taiwan and World War III.

Donald Trump, who promised to end the Russo Ukrainian War upon being nominated for the Republican ticket, and also within 24 hours of being elected, is belatedly trying to make good upon his promise. . . but on what terms.

This past week the United States has basically told its European allies that its abandoning Europe and at the same time is starting unilateral talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia?

Hmm. . . . 

The Saudi's likely regard Trump as an epic clown, and have no real interest in the war ending, so who knows what's up with that.

Anyhow there are widespread fears, and legitimate ones, that Trump is just out to betray Ukraine Chamberlin style.  Trump's life reduces simply to money for Trump, and he's a man with no real values, so he likely genuinely can't grasp what the war is about.  At the same time he's trying to extract an economic deal from Ukraine, as that's all he really understands.  

Not very well grasped in this is that the US is rocketing towards a world war, with Trump being too dense to grasp it.  We've been harrassing Taiwan in recent weeks while we also removed a statement from our embassy website that we don't support its independence from China. Now, we apparently don't object to that.  I'm fine with that, but what Trump doesn't grasp is the following:

We'll be in a type of world war.

And I don't mean figuratively, I mean actually.

Somewhere around here is a post that predicted, at the time it was posted, that we would be at war with China within, I thought, about five years.  We aren't at that mark yet. 

China wants Taiwan and have been openly planning to invade it for years.  The Biden Administration was fairly openly planning on the defense of Taiwan.  Japan and the Philippines expect it to occur as well.

Trump is now punishing Taiwan economically, and China is going to move to get it.  The Chinese are not dumb, and my guess is that they don't figure that Trump will be around long either.  

Trump's a demented doofus who is destroying the American government.  This would be the ideal time for China to act.  And if they do, and I think they will, North Korea will attack South Korea shortly thereafter.  Whatever has gone on or is occuring in Eastern Europe, Russia will launch a massive fully mobilized campaign against Ukraine, and maybe the Balkans and Poland.  You can easily see a scenario where China attacks Taiwan and North Korea attacks South Korea later that same week, and Russia has a major offensive occuring within a month.

Indeed, if I led China, and the morals of the Chinese leadership, I'd do it. The balance of risks is on their sides, and will even be more on their sides after Elon Musk takes the meat cleaver to the military.

What will Trump do?  Probably babble and vacillate.  He'll yap for about a week on the basis that world leaders listen to him.  After a week, the situation will be grave for Taiwan and we'll be in an all out war in South Korea.  We'll act then, but we'll have lost a week which means when we do, we're going to take a naval pounding.

Trump, it might be noted, didn't answer his country's call when it came in Vietnam.  Musk managed not to be conscripted into the South African Army by migrating to Canada.

I think our chances of winning such a war are very slim.

A war like that isn't avoidable and we'll get in it.  Probably with Vance as head of state as Trump's escorted out the door babbling.

The reason Trump can't grasp this that Trump can't grasp that not everything is for sale.  Indeed, most things aren't for sale, and in much of the world very little is for sale.  For China, bypassing taking Taiwan does not have a dollar value. For Taiwan, reuniting with China doesn't have a dollar value.

We're headed towards World War Three.

February 20, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

There were sharp words between President Zilensky and Donald Trump yesterday in which Zilensky said the quite part out loud saying the would be was "living in a disinformation space".  Trump ironically hit back by calling Zalinsky a "dictator", a real irony for a person illegitimately gathering autocratic authority to himself.

Trump's efforts to end the Russo Ukrainian War might actually have begun to sew the seeds of his irrelevancy.  Europe is united against Trump and Russia, as Trump tries to revive an late 19th Century view of foreign policy. And Trump's legendary negotiating skills, which are really fairly thuggish, don't appear to be working outside of the world of real estate, with Trump's worldview so limited that he can't really grasp that most people don't dream of being Florida golf course owners.  The question in increasingly becoming to what extent will his interregnum damage the United States internally and globally before an actual President returns to office.

March 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Yesterday made it clear that Donald Trump is really a spoiled, and not very smart, child.

Raised with a sliver spoon up his ass, and a bully by heart, with a career of well funded bulliness, he's come to believe he's a genius, as have his largely ignorant supporters, the latter of whom are seemingly unaware that a person born into Trump's wealth could have the IQ of a houseplant and still make money.

Trump, busy trying to make a deal to extort Ukraine's mineral wealth in exchange for . . . well it's not clear, found that leaders of country's don't respect spoiled children.  This lead to a short of shouting match between Trump and President Zelenskiy in the White House.

In the past month Europe as a whole has moved away from the United States, as has Canada, and are well on their way to forming a new second power block as the United States fades into being a regional petulant power.  Tariffs next week will finish it.  Ukraine will likely turn to Europe, and the US, lead by a spoiled not very smart brat, will turn into an economically hobbled regional bully in which somewhat over half the population dislikes to outright detests its leadership

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.



Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

A bad time of the year to start a new edition, but the old one was just too long.

December 29, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin has apologized for the downing of a civilian airliner.

Syrian Civil War

Lebanon has arrested Syrian Army officers taking refuge in the country and suspended the operation of the Syrian embassy there.

British born Asma Fawaz al-Assad (أسماء فواز الأسد), wife of the fallen dictator, is rumored to be battling leukemia.

December 31, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia rejected the peace plan of Putin fan boy Donald Trump, who promised during his recent campaign for the presidency to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as soon as he was elected.

An element of the plan was eventual NATO membership for Ukraine.  It was to be delayed for twenty years.  Russia also rejected the deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Rejection aside, a person could easily question to what degree Trump himself came up with any of this.  The peacekeeper deployment was a good idea, as was NATO membership, although a twenty year delay was an awful idea.

And, so we close out 2024.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.