Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 13. “Walmart Recession Signal” grows louder.

October 21, 2026

According to the economist who came up with it, the “Walmart Recession Signal” indicating an oncoming recession is getting louder.

Tonight, I'm also pleased to announce that the Department of Agriculture will be launching a new harvest fuel relief program, providing our farmers with $8 billion in support to offset diesel costs during this harvest season

Donald Trump.

So the fuel relief is to relieve high fuel prices caused by the war against Iran which is illegal, and will be paid for by money we don't have.

Sure, that makes sense somehow.

Oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, under US protection, at roughly the same amount it was before the war now.

In other news.

Oklahoma Tribe Buys One Of The Biggest Horse Betting Operations In Wyoming

Sublette Rejects Appeal For Girls Treatment Center, Owners May Take Fight To Court

October 22, 2026

Natrona County eyes two school closures. One is 40 miles away, the other is right around the corner

One of the schools is in Midwest.

‘It’ll Kill The Community’: Midwest Rallies To Save Grades 6-12 From Chopping Block

In a real irony, former House District 58 representative Patrick Sweeney went to the Midwest town hall on the subject.  Long serving Sweeney was ousted by current representative Bill Allemand after the district was redrawn. Alleman was a complete asshole to Sweeney in a debate and ran, that time, as firebrand Freedom Caucuser.

He survived a challenge from Bar Nunn Mayor Peter Boyer whom he became crosswise with over a proposal to place the Radiant nuclear generator plant north of Bar Nunn, something Bar Nunn could not have stopped. Bar Nunn's city council meetings became the bizarre focus of the topic however with outraged populists even accusing some city council members of taking bribes, an absolute absurdity.  Radiant eventually grew tired of the matter and decamped to Tennessee.  Allemand, for his part, was arrested not all that long after for drunk driving.  He's one of the few surviving members of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, barely hanging on to his seat.

Allemand is apparently backing fanciful thoughts of declaring the school to be a charter school or forming a new school district, neither of which will occur  It was really admirable of Sweeney to go out and speak to a group of people about their plight, which is concerning, which their votes for Allemand helped bring about.  It's the classic Leopard's won't eat my face situation. 

Campbell County Moves $500 Million Nuclear Fuel Facility Closer To Reality

Gillette Targeted For Massive $575 Million Uranium Processing Plant

Cheyenne Eyed For First World-Scale Nitrogen Fertilizer Plant In The Region

October 24, 2026

Some headlines:

Midwest escapes. . . for now.

School funding crisis, brought to you by the Freakishly Dumb Caucus.

Midwest School Saved After Heated Meeting — At Least For Another Year

Kemmerer coal mine set to close in 2029, spurring Wyoming’s soda ash industry to seek new fuel source

Could Data Centers Save Wyoming Coal? Peabody Eyes 'Holy Grail' Strategy

October 26, 2026

Wyoming will receive $206,000,000 from the Federal Government for healthcare as part of a Federal rural healthcare initiative.

Now, I demand everyone in Wyoming on the far right who has decried socialized medicine to demand the state not accept the money.  To not do so would be hypocritical.

October 28, 2026

Prometheus pulls plug on Natrona County data center

A proposed project promising up to $115 million in annual property taxes is off the table, leaving questions about what comes next for Natrona …

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 12, the Deflect and Deny edition.

Labels: 2020s, 2026, 2026 Election, Donald Trump, inflation, Joseph Biden, The Second Trump Administration, The Trump Trade War with Canada, Trump War Inflation, United States and Israel v. Iran, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

The 2027 Legislature, super early edition. The make them stop edition.

Ugh, just when the first corn fed, cornfederate legislature was safely in the history books, the Management Council met.  Of course, the same dumb ideas that get rejected repeatedly are back up for reconsideration, at least in part.

I hear we want to do the election review again and redo the same bills that just died three weeks ago ... in exchange for 911 funding.

Tara Nethercott.

The corner crossing bill won't be back, which is too bad.

Vote the WFC out and send them back to pre 1964 Alabama where they'll be happy.

May 13, 2026

Woman Sued By House Candidate Reid Rasner Urges Ban On Frivolous Lawsuits

I was aware this legislation had been introduced.  Frankly, Anti SLAPP provisions are really tricky as they're based, basically, on pre judging a litigants intent.

June 10, 2026

Lawmakers revive proposal to remove Wyoming property taxes

The money has to come from somewhere.  Property taxes rise because in no small part new people come in and overpay in the local housing market, and otherwise inflate it.

A better idea would be to have an unrealized sales tax on the sale of real property from other states that

 is used by a person within five years of moving to Wyoming.

August 13, 2026

Lawmakers reject proposal for online court records, streamed hearings

Thank goodness. This idea was outright unworkable.

August 29, 2026

Things are going to be rough from now until the the beginning of the next legislative session as the members of the deposed Freedom Caucus be a general pain.

At Least Five Lawmakers Walk Out Of ‘Absurd’ Joint Committee Meeting

August 30, 2026

The WFC food fight at the legislature continues as Chip Neiman took to Facebook to pout over Senators walking out of the recent pointless joint meeting.

As Speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives, I’m entrusted with the responsibility of appointing legislators to standing committees. It’s a charge I didn’t take lightly upon my election to the Speakership.

I’m proud of the members of the House Minerals and Appropriations Committees for finishing the job they took up for the interim pertaining to local government infrastructure funding and the Wyoming Business Council. 

Today, the Senate walked out on Wyoming cities, towns and counties. Conversely, the House committee members remained steadfast in order to deliver the strongest local government funding model seen in decades. This bill will fund local infrastructure and benefit every local jurisdiction and citizen.

The Legislature isn’t a place for turf warfare. 

I worry for the future of the Wyoming Legislature. I encourage those new members coming to Cheyenne, to remember who they serve; not a committee, a chamber or any particular lobbying outfit, they serve the people of Wyoming. See less

Neiman notes that he's Speaker of the House in the legislature, which is true, but he's on his way out and is a lame duck.  The complaint that the "Legislature isn't a place for turf warfare" is really rich given that the WFC acted like the first Vandals in Rome in Cheyenne.  If it's turf warfare, they started it.

We're going to see a lot more of this.  The WFC has been kicked to the curb, but like the the 33rd Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS Charlemagne (1st French) in the Battle of Berlin, it's going to see that everything is destroyed that it can destroy before it goes.

One common theme we're now seeing in connection with the WFC losing is this one that appears in the comments to Nieman:

Me too! We are quickly becoming a blue state, just as Charlie Kirk predicted!😢

I've scene that more than once now.

People who make that comment are deluded.  I don't know about this person, but they're likely also carpetbaggers.  Wyoming is a conservative state, but it's not a Turning Point USA Southern Bible Belt state.  This is why traditionally there was no support for restricting abortion much here (which I do feel should be restricted, and indeed illegal) and nobody cared much whether somebody was a homosexual or not, which apparently is also no longer the case.  The local view, and it was expressed in the Democratic and Republican parties, wsa "I don't care what you do as long as you leave me alone".  The WFC didn't want to leave people alone.

As for Charlie Kirk and his predications, I'm increasingly in the "I don't care what  Charlie had to say" camp.  I don't mean to sound like a Kirk basher, but those politicos and their followers that are Kirk acolytes increasingly don't impress me.  Kirk was brought to UW by one of his collegiate admirers who went on to work for Hageman and get canned for following Francoist website, with the same fellow then managing Chuck Gray's campaign.  That's a good enough reason not to vote for Gray, although were are are plenty of other reasons not to do so.  Anyhow, Kirk never reflected a Wyoming point of view.

September 3, 2026

Wyoming lawmakers change course on property tax reform amid signs of waning support

This is a result of the defeat of the WFC, and that Wyomingites did not rise to the occasion to take advantage of a bevy of potential exemptions, at least one of which was in my view likely illegal.

The last year made it increasingly obvious where local funding came from for municipalities and counties, which likely helps explain this.

It also signals the death spiral of a WFC dream.

September 23, 2026

Outspoken Veterinarians Kill Bill To Let Non-Vets Do Livestock Pregnancy Checks

I'll just be blunt about this.  

The same sort of dumb ass movement that backs crap like raw milk as being safe, home delivery by midwives, and "denturists" making dentures without a dentist support stupid ideas like this.

Scientific idiocy has always been part of American culture.  It's why people go to chiropractors and think its like going to the doctor.  Or why people wear brass bracelets, or take ivermectin for Covid (a really bad and dangerous idea).  Or why they think vaccines or dangerous.  Or why they think Robert F. Kennedy makes sense on anything.

It really needs to stop.

October 9, 2026

Wyoming lawmakers take steps to further restrict online gaming

Task force ditches Wyoming-run health insurance plan idea, mulls unorthodox service models

Wyoming Lawmakers Push For A Near Ban On Parents Giving Alcohol To Their Children

October 17, 2027

The Bitterenders:

Wyoming Freedom Caucus lawmakers vote to sponsor election bills, reject dark money resolution

Wednesday, March 13, 1946. Strikes end.

The United Auto Workers ended their strike against General Motors.

The Congress of Industrial Organizations ended its strike against General Electric.

The Rocky Mountain News, which was a morning paper, was focused on the Senate and gambling.

The US and USSR teetered on the end of war as the USSR continued an advance into Iran in defiance of a March 7 ultimatum.

The News did catch that.

Last edition:

Friday, March 8, 1946. Helicopters approved for civil use.

Labels: 1940s, 1946, Aircraft

Wednesday, February 9, 1944. Vice in Casper Wyoming. Questioning the conduct of the War in Parliament.

Fifty Five slot machines were seized by law enforcement in Casper.

Gambling is theoretically illegal in Wyoming, but old time Wyomingites know that at one time the law was really just winked at. The Wonder Bar, a Casper institution for decades, kept a blackboard up behind the bar with sports teams listed on it and betting information in the 40s and 50s.  The legendary bar finally seems to have escaped its name and somewhat misplaced nostalgia, but in those days that was a major feature of a major Casper bar.

The Wonder Bar

These photographs are of the "World Famous" Wonder Bar. The Wonder Bar has operated on Center Street for decades, although it has had short periods of time in recent years in which it operated under a different name (Tommy Knockers, Dillingers, and very briefly, "Sludge and Eddies"). Still, the bar has been around so long that even efforts to operate it under a different name do not deter the locals from continuing to refer to it as the Wonder Bar.

Downtown Casper once had a vast number of bars. This are of downtown had multiple bars on a single block. Only the Wonder Bar survives as a bar.

At some point in time, decades ago, Lee Riders paid to paint an advertisement on the side of the bar. The sign is still there, although an effort to paint over it was made at some point. This reflects the stockman heritage of central Wyoming, and indeed at one time quite a few cowboys and sheepherders spent time in the Wonder Bar.

Gambling downtown was a major deal in the bars in general.  My father was once a witness to a sheepherder pawning his cowboy boots so he could go back to a game.  This may have been at the Trail Bar, a long gone bar on Second Street at a time when Casper had bars literally everywhere downtown . . . something its oddly returning to actually.

That would also have been in the 40s.

 The Rialto Theater.  Just below the tall sign, which usually says "Rialto" but which is being refurbished, there was a cigar store.

The caption above is now inaccurate. The store has been recreated as a malt shop/soda fountain.  The theater is being converted into an events venue.

The Rialto Cigar Store, also a major Casper institution for decades, operated as a bookmaker at one time.  That was in addition to other illegal activities, which included selling sex related materials and pornographic magazines.  Even in the 1990s it sold a lot of pornography, in addition to cigars and newspapers.  It was also a malt shop.

That was Casper.

Casper, my hometown, was really rough from at least the onset of World War One through the end of World War Two.  Just as the war had a major impact on towns and cities that bordered reservations in the southwest, as returning Native veterans wanted to be near their homes, but not return to the reservations, returning veterans ran for local office in Natrona County as they wanted to rebuild their lives in a town that wasn't wide open, and Casper was.

The process actually started during the war.  Not only gambling, but prostitution was widely accepted in Casper until the 1940s.  It was loosely confined to The Sand Bar district of the city, but it was very open.  During the war, the commander of the Army Air Force base that became the Natrona County International Airport after the war asked the city to restrain it as the expanded business opportunities for the "working girls" caused by the war caused a law enforcement problem for the military, as well as a major health problem. The Army threatened to confine soldiers to base unless the city did something about it, and with money to be made, the city started to act.  Following the war, the efforts continued until the 1970s when the Sand Bar was taken down as part of an urban renewal project.

Aprilia, 1944.

The Germans captured Aprilia from the British 1st Infantry Division, which held out at "The Factory".

Bishop of Chichester George Bell started a debate in the House of Lords over the morality of the bombing of European cities.  He openly questioned the practice, which says a lot for him.  In doing so, he stated:

My Lords, the question which I have to ask is beset with difficulties. It deals with an issue which must have [its] own anxieties for the Government, and certainly causes great searchings of heart amongst large numbers of people who are as resolute champions of the Allied cause as any member of your Lordships' House. If long-sustained and public opposition to Hitler and the Nazis since 1933 is any credential, I would humbly claim to be one of the most convinced and consistent Anti-Nazis in Great Britain. But I desire to challenge the Government on the policy which directs the bombing of enemy towns on the present scale, especially with reference to civilians, non-combatants, and non-military and non-industrial objectives. I also desire to make it plain that, in anything I say on this issue of policy, no criticism is intended of the pilots, the gunners, and the air crews who, in circumstances of tremendous danger, with supreme courage and skill, carry out the simple duty of obeying their superiors' orders.

§ Few will deny that there is a distinction in principle between attacks on military and industrial objectives and attacks on objectives which do not possess that character. At the outbreak of the war, in response to an appeal by President Roosevelt, the Governments of the United Kingdom and France issued a joint declaration of their intention to conduct hostilities with a firm desire to spare the civilian population and to preserve in every way possible those monuments of human achievement which are treasured in all civilized countries. At the same time explicit instructions were issued to the Commanders of the Armed Forces prohibiting the bombardment, whether from the air or from the sea or by artillery on land, of any except strictly military objectives in the narrowest sense of the word. Both sides accepted this agreement. It is true that the Government added that, ‘In the event of the enemy not observing any of the restrictions which the Governments of the United Kingdom and France have thus imposed on the operation of their Armed Forces, these Governments reserve the right to take all such action as they may consider appropriate.’ It is true that on May 10, 1940, the Government publicly proclaimed their intention to exercise this right in the event of bombing by the enemy of civilian populations. But the point which I wish to establish at this moment is that in entering the war there was no doubt in the Government's mind that the distinction between military and non-military objectives was real.

§ Further, that this distinction is based on fundamental principles accepted by civilized nations is clear from the authorities in International Law. I give one instance the weight of which will hardly be denied. The Washington Conference on Limitation of Armaments in 1922 appointed a Commission of Jurists to draw up a code of rules about aerial warfare. It did not become an international convention, yet great weight should be attached to that code on account of its authors. Article 22 reads: ‘Aerial bombardment for the purpose of terrorizing the civilian population, of destroying or damaging private property not of military character, or of injuring non-combatants is prohibited.’ Article 24 says: ‘ Aerial bombardment is legitimate only when directed at a military objective—that is to say, an objective of which the destruction or injury would constitute a distinct military advantage to the belligerent.’ Professor A. L. Goodhart, of Oxford, states: ‘Both these Articles are based on the fundamental assumption that direct attack on non-combatants is an unjustifiable act of war.’

§ The noble Viscount, Lord Halifax, at the beginning of this war, in reference to this very thing, described war as bloody and brutal. It is idle to suppose that it can be carried on without fearful injury and violence from which non-combatants as well as combatants suffer. It is still true, nevertheless, that there are recognized limits to what is permissible. The Hague Regulations of 1907 are explicit. "The right of belligerents to adopt means of injuring the enemy is not unlimited." M. Bonfils, a famous French jurist, says: ‘If it is permissible to drive inhabitants to desire peace by making them suffer, why not admit pillage, burning, torture, murder, violation? ’ I have recalled the joint declaration and these pronouncements because it is so easy in the process of a long and exhausting war to forget what they were once held without question to imply, and because it is a common experience in the history of warfare that not only war but actions taken in war as military necessities are often supported at the time by a class of arguments which, after the war is over, people find are arguments to which they never should have listened.

§ I turn to the situation in February, 1944, and the terrific devastation by Bomber Command of German towns. I do not forget the Luftwaffe, or its tremendous bombing of Belgrade, Warsaw, Rotterdam, London, Portsmouth, Coventry, Canterbury and many other places of military, industrial and cultural importance. Hitler is a barbarian. There is no decent person on the Allied side who is likely to suggest that we should make him our pattern or attempt to be competitors in that market. It is clear enough that large-scale bombing of enemy towns was begun by the Nazis. I am not arguing that point at all. The question with which I am concerned is this. Do the Government understand the full force of what area bombardment is doing and is destroying now? Are they alive not only to the vastness of the material damage, much of which is irreparable, but also to the harvest they are laying up for the future relationships of the peoples of Europe as well as to its moral implications? The aim of Allied bombing from the air, said the Secretary of State for Air at Plymouth on January 22, is to paralyze German war industry and transport. I recognize the legitimacy of concentrated attack on industrial and military objectives, on airfields and air bases, in view especially of the coming of the Second Front. I fully realize that in attacks on centres of war industry and transport the killing of civilians when it is the result of bona-fide military activity is inevitable. But there must be a fair balance between the means employed and the purpose achieved. To obliterate a whole town because certain portions contain military and industrial establishments is to reject the balance.

§ Let me take two crucial instances, Hamburg and Berlin. Hamburg has a population of between one and two million people. It contains targets of immense military and industrial importance. It also happens to be the most democratic town in Germany where the Anti-Nazi opposition was strongest. Injuries to civilians resulting from bona-fide attacks on particular objectives are legitimate according to International Law. But owing to the methods used the whole town is now a ruin. Unutterable destruction and devastation were wrought last autumn. On a very conservative estimate, according to the early German statistics, 28,000 persons were killed. Never before in the history of air warfare was an attack of such weight and persistence carried out against a single industrial concentration. Practically all the buildings, cultural, military, residential, industrial, religious—including the famous University Library with its 800,000 volumes, of which three-quarters have perished—were razed to the ground.

§ Berlin, the capital of the Reich, is four times the size of Hamburg. The offices of the Government, the military, industrial, war-making establishments in Berlin are a fair target. Injuries to civilians are inevitable. But up to date half Berlin has been destroyed, area by area, the residential and the industrial portions alike. Through the dropping of thousands of tons of bombs, including fire-phosphorus bombs, of extraordinary power, men and women have been lost, overwhelmed in the colossal tornado of smoke, blast and flame. It is said that 74,000 persons have been killed and that 3,000,000 are already homeless. The policy is obliteration, openly acknowledged. That is not a justifiable act of war. Again, Berlin is one of the great centres of art collections in the world. It has a large collection of Oriental and classical sculpture. It has one of the best picture galleries in Europe, comparable to the National Gallery. It has a gallery of modern art better than the Tate, a museum of ethnology without parallel in this country, one of the biggest and best organized libraries—State and university, containing two and a half million books—in the world. Almost all these non-industrial, non-military buildings are grouped together near the old Palace and in the Street of the Linden. The whole of that street, which has been constantly mentioned in the accounts of the raids, has been demolished. It is possible to replace flat houses by mass production. It is not possible so quickly to rebuild libraries or galleries or churches or museums. It is not very easy to rehouse those works of art which have been spared. Those works of art and those libraries will be wanted for the re-education of the Germans after the war. I wonder whether your Lordships realize the loss involved in that.

§ How is it, then, that this wholesale destruction has come about? The answer is that it is the method used, the method of area bombing. The first outstanding raid of area bombing was, I believe, in the spring of 1942, directed against Lubeck, then against Rostock, followed by the thousand-bomber raid against Cologne at the end of May, 1942. The point I want to bring home, because I doubt whether it is sufficiently realized, is that it is no longer definite military and industrial objectives which are the aim of the bombers, but the whole town, area by area, is plotted carefully out. This area is singled out and plastered on one night; that area is singled out and plastered on another night; a third, a fourth, a fifth area is similarly singled out and plastered night after night, till, to use the language of the Chief of Bomber Command with regard to Berlin, the heart of Nazi Germany ceases to beat. How can there be discrimination in such matters when civilians, monuments, military objectives and industrial objectives all together form the target? How can the bombers aim at anything more than a great space when they see nothing and the bombing is blind?

§ When the Nazis bombed France and Britain in 1940 it was denounced as "indiscriminate bombing." I recall this passage from a leader in The Times after the bombing of Paris on June 4, 1940: ‘No doubt in the case of raids on large cities the targets are always avowedly military or industrial establishments; but, when delivered from the great height which the raiders seem to have been forced to keep by the anti-aircraft defences, the bombing in fact is bound to be indiscriminate.’ And I recall two other more recent articles in The Times on our own policy. On January 10, 1944, the following was published: ‘It is the proclaimed intention of Bomber Command to proceed with the systematic obliteration one by one of the centres of German war production until the enemy's capacity to continue the fight is broken down.’ On January 31 the Aeronautical Correspondent wrote: ‘Some of the most successful attacks of recent times have been made when every inch of the target area was obscured by unbroken cloud, thousands of feet thick, and when the crews have hardly seen the ground from which they took off until they were back at their bases again.’ If your Lordships will weigh the implication, and observe not only the destruction of the war-production factories but the obliteration of the places in which they are and the complete invisibility of the target area, it must surely be admitted that the bombing is comprehensive and what would ordinarily be called indiscriminate.

§ The Government have announced their determination to continue this policy city by city. I give quotations. The Prime Minister, after the thousand-bomber raid on Cologne in 1942, said: ‘Proof of the growing power of the British bomber force is also the herald of what Germany will receive city by city from now on.’ Air Marshal Sir Arthur Harris, on July 28, 1942, said: ‘We are going to scourge the Third Reich from end to end. We are bombing Germany city by city and ever more terribly in order to make it impossible for her to go on with the war. That is our object; we shall pursue it relentlessly.’ A few days ago, as reported in the Sunday Express of January 23, an Air Marshal said: "One by one we shall pull out every town in Germany like teeth."

§ I shall offer reasons for questioning this policy as a whole, but what I wish immediately to urge is this. There are old German towns, away from the great centres, which may be subjected—which almost certainly will be subjected—to the raids of Bomber Command. Almost certainly they are on the long list. Dresden, Augsburg, Munich are among the larger towns, Regensburg, Hildesheim and Marburg are a few among the smaller beautiful cities. In all these towns the old centres, the historic and beautiful things, are well preserved, and the industrial establishments are on the outskirts. After the destruction of the ancient town centres of Cologne, with its unique Romanesque churches, and Lubeck, with its brick cathedral, and Mainz, with one of the most famous German cathedrals, and of the old Gothic towns, the inner towns, Nuremburg, Hamburg and others, it would seem to be indicated that an effort, a great effort should be made to try to save the remaining inner towns. In the fifth year of the war it must surely be apparent to any but the most complacent and reckless how far the destruction of European culture has already gone. We ought to think once, twice, and three times before destroying the rest. Something can still be saved if it is realized by the authorities that the industrial centres, generally speaking, lie outside the old inner parts where are the historical monuments.

§ I would especially stress the danger—outside Germany—to Rome. The principle is the same, but the destruction of the main Roman monuments would create such hatred that the misery would survive when all the military and political advantages that may have accrued may have long worn off. The history of Rome is our own history. Rome taught us, through the example of Christ, to abolish human sacrifice and taught us the Christian faith. The destruction would rankle in the memory of every good European as Rome's destruction by the Goths or the sack of Rome rankled. The blame simply must not fall on those who are professing to create a better world. The resentment which would, inevitably, follow would be too deep-seated to be forgotten. It would be the sort of crime which one day, even in the political field, would turn against the perpetrators.

§ I wish to offer a few concluding remarks on the policy as a whole. It will be said that this area bombing—for it is this area bombing which is the issue to-day—is definitely designed to diminish the sacrifice of British lives and to shorten the war. We all wish with all our hearts that these two objects could be achieved, but to justify methods inhumane in themselves by arguments of expediency smacks of the Nazi philosophy that Might is Right. In any case the idea that it will reduce the sacrifice is speculation. The Prime Minister, as far back as August, 1940, before either Russia or America entered the war, justified the continued bombardment of German industries and communications as one of the surest, if not the shortest, of all the roads to victory. We are still fighting. It is generally admitted that German aircraft and military production, though it has slowed down, is going forward; and your Lordships may have noticed signs in certain military quarters of a tendency to question the value of this area bombing policy on military grounds. The cost in sacrifice of human life when the Second Front begins has never been disguised either from the American or from the British public by our leaders.

§ It is also urged that area bombing will break down morale and the will to fight. On November 5, in a speech at Cheltenham, the Secretary of State for Air said that bombing in this way would continue until we had paralysed German war industries, disrupted their transport system and broken their will to war. Again leaving the ethical issue aside, it is pure speculation. Up to now the evidence received from neutral countries is to the opposite effect. It is said that the Berliners are taking it well. Let me quote from two Swedish papers. On November 30 last, the Svenska Dagbladet—this was during the first stage of our raids on Berlin—said: ‘Through their gigantic air raids the British have achieved what Hitler failed to achieve by means of decrees and regulations; they have put the majority of the German people on a war footing.’ On January 9 of this year, the Sydsvenska Dagbladet said: ‘The relative German strength on the home front is undoubtedly based on desperation, which increases and gets worse the longer the mass bombing lasts. It is understandable that the fewer the survivors and the more they lose the more the idea spreads 'We have everything to gain and nothing to lose, and we can only regain what is ours if Germany wins the final victory, so let us do everything in our power.'’ If there is one thing absolutely sure, it is that a combination of the policy of obliteration with a policy of complete negation as to the future of a Germany which has got free from Hitler is bound to prolong the war and make the period after the war more miserable.

§ I am not extenuating the crimes of the Nazis or the responsibility of Germany as a whole in tolerating them for so long, but I should like to add this. I do not believe that His Majesty's Government desire the annihilation of Germany. They have accepted the distinction between Germany and the Hitlerite State.

[Bell is interrupted here by shouts of "no" from several members.]

On March 10 of last year the Lord Chancellor, speaking officially for the Government, accepted that distinction quite clearly and precisely. Is it a matter for wonder that Anti-Nazis who long for help to overthrow Hitler are driven to despair? I have here a telegram, which I have communicated to the Foreign Office, sent to me on December 27 last by a well-known Anti-Nazi Christian leader who had to flee from Germany for his life long before the war. It was sent from Zurich, and puts what millions inside Germany must feel. He says: ‘Is it understood that present situation gives us no sincere opportunity for appeal to people because one cannot but suspect effect of promising words on practically powerless population convinced by bombs and phosphor that their annihilation is resolved?’ If we wish to shorten the war, as we must, then let the Government speak a word of hope and encouragement both to the tortured millions of Europe and to those enemies of Hitler to whom in 1939 Mr. Churchill referred as "millions who stand aloof from the seething mass of criminality and corruption constituted by the Nazi Party machine."

Why is there this blindness to the psychological side? Why is there this inability to reckon with the moral and spiritual facts? Why is there this forget-fulness of the ideals by which our cause is inspired? How can the War Cabinet fail to see that this progressive devastation of cities is threatening the roots of civilization? How can they be blind to the harvest of even fiercer warring and desolation, even in this country, to which the present destruction will inevitably lead when the members of the War Cabinet have long passed to their rest? How can they fail to realize that this is not the way to curb military aggression and end war? This is an extraordinarily solemn moment. What we do in war—which, after all, lasts a comparatively short time—affects the whole character of peace, which covers a much longer period. The sufferings of Europe, brought about by the demoniac cruelty of Hitler and his Nazis, and hardly imaginable to those in this country who for the last five years have not been out of this island or had intimate association with Hitler's victims, are not to be healed by the use of power only, power exclusive and unlimited. The Allies stand for something greater than power. The chief name inscribed on our banner is "Law." It is of supreme importance that we who, with our Allies, are the liberators of Europe should so use power that it is always under the control of law. It is because the bombing of enemy towns—this area bombing—raises this issue of power unlimited and exclusive that such immense importance is bound to attach to the policy and action of His Majesty's Government. I beg to move.

[Three more speakers, including Cosmo Lang, former Archbishop of Canterbury, and Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, Secretary of State for Dominion Affairs, intervene before Bell, exercising his right of reply, makes a concluding statement.]

My Lords, I should like to express my gratitude for the courtesy of the noble Viscount's reply.[2] I will not disguise the fact that the end of his speech was not exactly unexpected but was nevertheless a disappointment. I, of course, wish—no one more—for the liberation of the unfortunate peoples of Europe, and I know it is only by the conquest of Hitler and his associates that that can be achieved. I would very strongly press the noble Viscount to take great pains about the definition of legitimate objectives of a military and industrial kind and to avoid to the utmost extent possible any confusion of them with non-military and non-industrial objectives. I do not wish to trouble your Lordships further, but we have to think of the future as well as the present. I beg leave to withdraw my Motion.

"I recognize the legitimacy of concentrated attack on industrial and military objectives, on airfields and air bases, in view especially of the coming of the Second Front "I fully realize that in attacks on centres of war industry and transport the killing of civilians when it is the result of bona-fide military activity is inevitable. But there must be a fair balance between the means employed and the purpose achieved. To obliterate a whole town because certain portions contain military and industrial establishments is to reject the balance ... How can there be discrimination in such matters when civilians, monuments, military objectives and industrial objectives all together form the target? How can the bombers aim at anything more than a great space when they see nothing and the bombing is blind?"

Bishop Bell, an Anglican (of course) had been considered to be in the running for Archbishop of Canterbury and some feel that the speech cost him is chance.  Bell did not have the support of his superiors in making the speech, one of whom questioned it during it, stating; it is a lesser evil to bomb the war-loving Germans than to sacrifice the lives of our fellow countrymen..., or to delay the delivery of many now held in slavery"?

Bishop Bell is considered by some to be a Saint.

Bishop Bell was absolutely correct, in my view, which is something those in the West have never faced.  Much of the bombing of Axis targets evolved to a species of mass civilian killing, which was never moral.

Bishop Bell opposed the war crime trials after the war on nuanced grounds, which likely also didn't help those wanting him to become the Anglican Archbishop of Canterbury.  He opposed nuclear arms following the war.  He died in 1958.  In 1995, long after his death, he was accused of having a sexual relationship with a minor in the 1940s and the Anglican Church paid a settlement which it later found embarrassing as it was concluded that there had been a rush to judgement, and that in fact the evidence was not credible.  It apologized to his relatives.

The Luftwaffe made renewed efforst to supply the Korsun Pocket from the air, and also evacuated some of the wounded after delivirng large quantities of materials.

Water carrying detail, February 9, 1944.  Bougainville.

Alice Walker, author of The Color Purple, was born in Georgia.

The 2024 Election, Part X. Your money where your mouth is edition, sort of?

The last edition started wiping out everything on the front page for some glitchy computer reason, and was hard to post in. So, already on to a new one, with which we start with this interesting item:

November 21, 2023 

But there happen to be better numbers than the ones Cohn and his prophesizing colleagues are citing. And they show Biden well ahead. The prediction markets for elections — essentially investors putting money on candidates — has a Biden win trading at 43 cents, which implies a 43% chance of victory, according to the Financial Times. Trump is trailing at 37 cents, while the other candidates are long shots.

What might make these markets a better indication of the candidates’ prospects than those political polls? For one thing, they have a better record of accurately predicting the winner.PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. 

A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New Zealand.

The Financial Times sets forth the argument made by PredictIt founder John Aristotle Phillips that “prediction markets are a truth generator, powered by the invisible hand. ... If you trade based on fake news or half-baked punditry, you’re going to lose your money.”

From Harrop:  Actually, Biden is ‘polling’ really well in the markets.

Whose running, check the last edition, it hasn't changed.

Breaking tradition and protocol, Speaker of the House Johnson has endorsed Trump.

November 23, 2023

November 23, 2023

The Colorado Supreme Court is taking up the issue of the 14th Amendment in an appeal from the district court.

My prediction here is that it will adopt the district court's finding that Trump is an insurrectionist, but remand for an order depriving him of a position on Colorado's ballot.

This holding, should it come first, will then be used as a persuasive argument, or even on a full faith and credit basis, in other states.

November 28, 2023

Koch-backed super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Nikki Haley.

December 4, 2023

Mysterious mailers attack Wyoming lawmakers, prompt investigation

On a different note, one of the panel members on This Week came absolutely unglued at the argument that Trump is a threat to democracy.

Now, frankly, I think Trump is a threat to democracy.

However, the commentator's point was a good one, which was that the Democrats don't believe that.  His argument was that if they did, they wouldn't be fielding Biden.

Now, I think many Democrats are correct that Trump is very much a threat to democracy, but it is hard to ignore the fact that it's hard to believe their sincerity in the argument when they only think they're will got five voters is a warmed over Cup of Joe.  People keep asking to see the menu, but the waitress just asks, "can I reheat that cup for you?"

Not only that, I'd note, but at the same time that Democrats are arguing that Trump is a threat to democracy, they're also arguing that all third party choices must not be considered.

Eh?

Um, in a functioning democracy they would be considered.

Of course, the reason for that is, to extend the analogy above, you might walk across the street and look at somebody else's menu.  "Hmmm. . . I think I've had enough of this coffeee, do you want to walk across the street and get some ice cream?"  What?  What, are you crazy? Ice Cream will make you fat!  Let me reheat that for you.

December 5, 2023

Doug Burgum has dropped out of the Republican contest.

While other candidates do remain, basically this race is down this Haley, DeSantis, Trump and Christie, with it appearing increasingly unlikely that Christie has a chance.

December 6, 2023

Criminal Defendant Donald Trump, in an interview with Sean Hannity, stated:

I love this guy.  He says, 'You’You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?' I said, 'No, no, no. Other than Day One.' We’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.

So, contrary to the headlines, Trump in fact confirmed that he'd act like a dictator, but confined it to a single day, which gets back to his delusional comments that anything can be done in a day.

President Biden indicated he likely wouldn't be running again, but for Trump, in which case he should not be running, as most Democrats don't want him to be and it looks like he'll lose to Trump.

Liz Cheney is hinting that she may run for the Presidency as a third party candidate.

December 17, 2023

Jefferson Davis, a man whose times have seemed to return.

Drawing his lines clearer than ever, Donald Trump unleashed a series of far right dog whistles this past week, including those that recall strongly racist and fascists elements.  To start with, regarding immigration:

TRUMP: No, nobody has ever seen anything like this. And I think we could say worldwide. I think you could go to the... you could go to a banana republic and pick the worst one, and you're not going to see what we're witnessing now. No control whatsoever. Nobody has any idea where these people are coming from, and we know they come from prisons. We know they come from mental institutions. . .  insane asylums. We know they're terrorists. Nobody has ever seen anything like we're witnessing right now. It is a very sad thing for our country. It's poisoning the blood of our country. It's so bad, and people are coming in with disease. People are coming in with every possible thing that you could have. And I got to know a lot of the heads of these countries. They're very cunning people. Very street-smart people. If they're not street-smart, they're not going to be there very long. And when they send up those caravans, and I had it ended, we had the safest border in the history of our country, meaning the history, over the last 80 years. Before that, I assume it was probably not so bad. There was nobody around. But, we had the safest in recorded history by far. The least amount of drugs in many, many decades. The least amount of human trafficking, which is a tremendous problem. But, when you look at what's taking place now, nobody's... first of all, it's not sustainable by any country, including ours, even from a (inaudible) standpoint. And, you know, we built over 500 miles of wall. We were going to put up another 200 miles. And, we had it bought. Everything was bought. Everything was purchased. They were going to ready. It could have been done within three weeks. Another 200 miles, all done. And they didn't want to do it. When you look at the numbers of people coming in, and the numbers, Raheem, are much bigger than anyone understands. I really believe it's going to be 15 million people by the end of this year during this administration. That's larger than New York state. Ok, this is what we have.^1 2

Trump also stated that immigrants would be subjected to stout entry testing, including determining if they agree with "our religion".  

And now Donald Trump has stated this at a campaign rally:

I’ll implement strong ideological screening of all immigrants…If you don’t like our religion…then we don’t want you in our country.

One Twitter commentator that I follow stated that this was the most anti-American statement he could imagine, but it really isn't.  It's a very Southern populist viewpoint, of the type that we haven't seen openly from the 1960s and which most people believed was behind us.

This is ample evidence of how a genuine problem, the absurdly high level of immigration, legal and illegal, that has existed in the country for decades now, but which has been consistently ignored, has festered in the rust belt and populist populations.  It could have been addressed in an equitable fashion before, but now it's threatening to breakout in a really malevolent fashion.  This issue alone may end up defeating Biden, and we should take Trump fully at his word in what he intends to do.

The citation to religion, we'd note, is ironic, as Trump is not a religious man in any fashion, which again demonstrates the extent to which Southern Cultural Christianity has crept into the GOP, and particularly the New Apostolic Reformation movement.  Apostolic Christianity and Judaism are full of Biblical injunctions that immigrants are to be welcomed, something that has long made conservative American Catholics uncomfortable.  But this approach that Trump has now adopted is radical in pledging a religious test for entry, something that has never existed in the country's history.  This too has been a smoldering cultural problem, although it's camouflaged here.  Prior to Ted Kennedy's redrafting of American immigration, US immigration policy strongly favored immigrant pools that reflected existing American demographics.  His reforms, adopted by Congress, changed that, and many have been uncomfortable with those changes, and this is again erupting in a malevolent fashion.

Trump also quoted Vladimir Putin about Joe Biden being a threat to democracy, which is absurd, but which again demonstrates the very weird Putin/Trump connection which has never been fully explored.

The truly scary thing here is that we seem to have gone over a tipping point where these views aren't shied away from, they're being endorsed by large segments of American society.

Footnotes:

1.  Once again, I'm left amazed by some of the ignorance and weirdness in  Trump's speech. The repetitious childishness of his speech patterns, and in this case prior to "80 years ago" "there was nobody around".

Trump just isn't right.  Why is this being ignored?

2.  Some have noted that the "poisoning the blood" language recalls Mein Kampf.  In fact, it does.  Hitler uses that line repeatedly, for example:

Unfortunately the German national being is not based on a uniform racial type. The process of welding the original elements together has not gone so far as to warrant us in saying that a new race has emerged. On the contrary, the poison which has invaded the national body, especially since the Thirty Years' War, has destroyed the uniform constitution not only of our blood but also of our national soul. The open frontiers of our native country, the association with non-German foreign elements in the territories that lie all along those frontiers, and especially the strong influx of foreign blood into the interior of the Reich itself, has prevented any complete assimilation of those various elements, because the influx has continued steadily.

The religious test quote Trump made, makes a person wonder if he's genuinely holding views of this type, although his language recalls anti desegregation Southern whites more strongly in my view.

December 20, 2023

The Supreme Court of Colorado, just as we predicted, has disqualified Donald J. Trump from appearing on the Colorado ballot.

Under the doctrine of full faith and credit, every state is now legally obligated to do the same, or at least give serious weight to Colorado’s decision.  At least some other states will follow this route and as some, like Wyoming, will decry it, it will head to the United States Supreme Court.  I’ll predict right now that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the Colorado decision, putting an end, although a precariously late one, to Trump as a candidate.

December 28, 2023

The case noted above has been appealed by the Colorado GOP to the United States Supreme Court, while at the same time, a similar effort in Michigan has failed to take Trump off of that state's ballot.

Should the U.S. Supreme Court take this matter up, which the Trump lawyers also say they will seek, it will prove to be an error and likely end up removing Trump from the race entirely.

Regarding Colorado, a surprise move by Lauren Boebert:

In a true Colorado political surprise, U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert announced Wednesday night that she will abandon the congressional district she has represented for nearly three years — and seek her party’s nomination in 2024 on the other end of the state.

Boebert said she will run to represent Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, vying to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, a fellow Republican.

“Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a difficult year for me and my family,” Boebert said in a video announcement on Facebook. “I will not allow dark money that is directed at destroying me to steal this seat. It’s not fair to the 3rd District and the conservatives there who have fought so hard for our victories, of which I’m incredibly grateful.”

Boebert must be in real political trouble in her district to attempt this move, which very well may fail.  She's going to have to relocate to get on the ballot, and presumably she'll have to resign her current seat when she does. 

cont:

Colorado Supreme Court Ruling in Anderson v. Griswold Appealed to U.S. Supreme Court

Denver, December 28, 2023 - The Colorado Republican Party has appealed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision in Anderson v. Griswold to the U.S. Supreme Court. With the appeal filed, Donald Trump will be included as a candidate on Colorado’s 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot when certification occurs on January 5, 2024, unless the U.S. Supreme Court declines to take the case or otherwise affirms the Colorado Supreme Court ruling.

Secretary of State Griswold has commented: “Donald Trump engaged in insurrection and was disqualified under the Constitution from the Colorado Ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court got it right. This decision is now being appealed. I urge the U.S. Supreme Court to act quickly given the upcoming presidential primary election.”

On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled Donald Trump is ineligible to appear on the Colorado 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot due to the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Supreme Court simultaneously stayed that ruling until January 4, with that stay remaining in place in the event of an appeal.

Key Upcoming Dates:

• January 5: Deadline for Secretary of State Griswold to certify the names and party affiliations of candidates on the 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot.
• January 5: U.S. Supreme Court conference day
• January 20: Deadline for 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots to be sent to military and overseas voters.
• February 12: First day 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots can be mailed to active registered voters.
• February 26: First day of in-person voting for the 2024 President Primary.
• March 5: Colorado 2024 Presidential Primary Day, polls close at 7:00 PM Mountain Time.

cont:

Frankly, the decision above by the Colorado Secretary of State, unless there's more to it that I don't know, is flat out wrong.  Her court has decided that Trump is unqualified. An appeal doesn't matter without an order from the appellate court staying the decision.

She's wrong.

Anyhow, now the Secretary of State for the State of Maine has determined that Trump may not appear on Maine's ballot.

Maine won't be the last state to decide in this fashion, and now there's a split set of decisions. The Supreme Court will have to intervene.

January 3, 2024.

Donald Trump's is appealing the ruling of the Secretary of State that Trump cannot stand for election under the 14th Amendment.

Last Edition:

The 2024 Election, Part IX. The Biggest Danger To The World Edition.

Related Threads:

The Post Insurrection. Part VII. The Insurrectionist.