Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina

 

An earlier humanitarian crisis.

May 12, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

Not in the category of war, but sort of an invasion, Title 42 expired last night and a flood of asylum seekers and others are anticipated to cross the border.

This is a crisis for the US that cannot be ignored.  It is effectively an invasion of sorts, which if not addressed will have dire humanitarian and economic consequences in the United States and imperil the US's already frankly teetering democracy.  Failing to come up with something has already created a dire humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico, which has, under its new leadership, lost patience with the United States.  Some recent polls suggest that a majority of Texans wish to leave the union, with this being among the major causes.  The migrant flood has already effectively destroyed aspects of civil life in cities along the border.

Prior to the 1970s, the United States would have intervened militarily in the failed states which are the home countries of the flood of desperate humanity.  We no longer do such things, but this does bring up grave moral issues, among them being the toleration of pretending that the source countries have effective governments while their populations remove themselves for the American border.  In the name of being a peaceable better neighbor, we've allowed countries to descend into chaos, and yet in this day and age gunboat diplomacy is presumably unthinkable.

What's to be done?

Whatever that is, there's little confidence in the current administration's ability to effectively do it, and the Republican Party is using the crisis to make political hay.  Dithering, however, is contributing to it.  Immediate action on the crisis is required, and a major reform of the US's already then naive circa 1970s immigration laws needs to take place.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy announced yesterday that Ukraine has delayed its Spring offensive due to a lack of ammunition.

A leader making such an announcement is phenomenal, and partially for that reason, there's reason to wonder about the statement.  Still, it's been remarkable how little has occurred since the muddy seasons, presumably, has ended.

Added to that, quite frankly, if this is true, it causes grave reasons for concern.

The United Kingdom has supplied new long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines at Bakhmut.

The Russians have seized the Cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol, an area that they occupy.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

I split out the entry on this to a separate item, which I'll refer to here.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a technological game of chess, the Russians attempted to destroy a Patriot missile battery only to have the Patriots shoot the hypersonic missiles.

Now we know that Patriots can do that.

May 13, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy is in Rome.  He's met with the Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and is now meeting with the Pope.

May 14, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarusian President Lukashenko is gravely ill.

What happens in regard to his country's position on the conflict, should he die, is a wildcard.

For the first time in the war, four Russian aircraft, two jets and two helicopters were shot down inside of Russia itself.

May 15, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

So far, migrant crossings into the US have actually dropped.

The lapse of Title 42 was a topic on the weekend shows.  Of interest, the Democratic responses is always, basically, how to amend the law to make the process of taking in a flood of people more orderly, not addressing if the flood needs to be stemmed or stopped.

Russo Ukrainian War

On the weekend shows, there was much discussion of Trump's refusal to take a stand over supporting Ukraine in the war.

Are we surprised?  Trump has always had some sort of weird relationship with Putin.

May 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion which surrendered in Mariupol last Spring were betrayed by a logistical officer who was cooperating with the Russians, effectively tricking them into surrendering, according to a Ukrainian investigation.

Regarding this sort of activity:

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15 that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions. GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with Prigozhin.[2]

May 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The United States, Portugal and Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

Counteroffensive?  Still no signs of one.

May 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are claiming to have taken Bakhmut, although it remains unclear if they have.  ISW regards the capture, if it occurred, as tactically insignificant.

Zelenskyy is at the G7 seeking ongoing support for Ukraine.

Italy may also start training Ukrainian pilots.

Mexican Border Crisis\

Mexico, also plagued by the immigration crisis, is flying migrants south, away from the US border, and bussing migrants away from the Guatemalan border.

Camps that are some distance north of the southern Mexican border predominately house Haitian migrants.

Sudanese Civil War

The fighting factions of the Sudanese military agreed to a seven-day cease fire.  The US and Saudi Arabia brokered the hiatus in fighting.

May 22, 2023

Papua New Guinea/United States

Papua New Guinea and the US will sign a defense pact aimed at countering China.

May 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Anti Putin Russians fighting with Ukraine entered Belgorod Oblast.  The Russians are complaining about it, but why, after invading Ukraine, they'd be upset by having Ukrainian allied forces invade them, is hard to fathom.

The incursion, which has only crossed a limited area of the border, has seen the forces which engaged in it dig in.

Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, after having taken it, in order to turn it over to the Russian Army.  Apparently they intend to refit elsewhere.  Ukrainian forces have advanced around the city to some extent.

May 28, 2023

Iran & Afghanistan

Iran and Taliban forces exchanged gun fire on their border in a fight that is over water rights.

May 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Moscow was hit by drones yesterday.  Ukraine has denied involvement.

The Russians hit Ukraine with missile and drone attacks every day.  Their frequency is why we don't report them here.

May 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine hit a Russian refinery on the Black Sea today with drones.

June 1, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's last remaining warship yesterday.

June 4, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to launch its counteroffensive.

Declaring something like that is quite odd, so its hard to know what to make of it.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя

Related threads:

Crisis on the border. Roots, origins, angst, and what is to be done.

Crisis on the border. Roots, origins, angst, and what is to be done.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

Those seeking asylum, FWIW, are required to have first applied in the countries from which they are departing, or online, or if they traveled through another country or countries, those places.  The problem remains of dealing with the requests of those who are allowed in.

Most of the migrants are fleeing economic distress or violence in their homelands, the product of a wide-ranging number of things, and which varies by countries.  Haiti, for example, remains impoverished as a legacy of paying its original French slaveholders upon achieving independence long ago.  Almost all of the Central American and South American states contributing to the human flood also suffer from the legacy of Spanish Colonialism, which saw its original liberators largely act in the name of their own self-interest rather than that of the native populations.  Stable Central American states, looked at with a long lens, have a single stable government example, which also contributes to the flood due to being in an unstable neighborhood.  The existence of multiple Central American states in the first place is nonsensical and is a symptom of failed policies itself. They should really all be part of Mexico, which in fact was at least partially the plan early on.  Repeated efforts to reunite into one state have failed, leaving tiny rump states that have been corruptly ruled and which have fallen into the control of criminal gangs, something the US's unending appetite for illegal drugs, a symptom of its own failed American Dream, fuels.

Marines in Nicaragua, 1932.

Central Americans have lived in fear of US intervention for decades, although that seems to have ceased, as has U.S. intervention.  Unfortunately, the region is terribly governed, with Socialist ineptitude governing in some places (Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela), to simply featuring failed states in others.  The US has repeatedly tried a "good neighbor" policy of non-intervention, and it retains guilt over supposed "American colonialism"  for intervention.  The US last put troops on the ground in Panama when it deposed the Panamanian leader during the Reagan Administration and then went right on to invade Grenada.

The problem remains that the neighbor analogy may be too appropriate.  It might be neighborly to ignore your neighbor's dissolute living for a while, but when it turns violent, do you?

It's clear something has to be done to address the root problems of what's being seen. But what is that?

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Nine. Rout

Ukrainian Christmas stamp.

November 11, 2022.

As amazing as it is to think it, it's actually the case.  Russia is being routed in Ukraine.

But maybe it's not really that amazing, except for one thing.  We'll get to that.

The last war I can think of, offhand, in which Russian forces performed really well was during the 1812+ stage of the Napoleonic Wars, keeping in mind that I'm very ignorant on the Crimean War.

That's 210 years ago.

The Imperial Russian Army preformed badly during the Russo Japanese War.  It had mixed performance during World War One, but in the end, the Germans defeated Russia.

Sure, the Red Army won in the Russian Civil War, but any army performs well in a civil war, if its truly fought out, as the other army is also made up of people with the same training or lack thereof.

It lost to the Pole is the Russo Polish War that followed the Civil War.

And tiny Finland fought it to a standstill in the Winter War.

Then there's World War Two.

Now, let's given credit where credit is due. The Russian Army killed more Germans than any other army in the field. . . and the Germans killed a lot of Russians too.

Indeed, with a massive numerical advantage it didn't really manage to get its act together until Fall, 1942, for the most part, although there are real and notable exceptions.

One of the things that those real and notable exceptions tell us, like it or not, is that Stalin did a pretty good job of reforming an army he'd destroyed in the 30s and giving it 11th hour backbone.

After the Fall of 1942, while it hemorrhaged deserters like sand in the hand, it preformed well, even though it preformed well as an armed mob.

But since then? What has it done well, really?

Hmmm. . . 

Afghanistan? 

Well, it lost.

Syria?

The Newark New Jersey police department could probably turn in a real performance there and look impressive.

Under trained troops, bad equipment, no doctrinal flexibility.  These are Russian things.

And the Ukrainian Army, having been reformed since 2014, is a Western Army.  It's more like the Army of Poland or even West Germany than Russia, now.

Ukraine has taken back its territory west of the Dnipr.

By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

Slava Ukraine.

November 15, 2022

U.S. intelligence indicates that Putin may have delayed the Russian withdrawal from Kherson in order to attempt to preclude it from being viewed as a Biden victory.

If so, it's an interesting example of how Russia regards American domestic politics.

Today, Russia mounted a massive rocket attack on Ukraine, sending two missiles into Poland, where they killed two.

November 16, 2022

President Zelenskyy addressed the G20 and gave a 10 point peace plan which included a Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory.  It can safely be assumed that Russia will reject this.

The missile that went down in Poland now appears to have been an errant Ukrainian one.

November 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Col. Vadim Boyko, a Russian army officer who was head of a military academy and involved in Putin's conscription attempt, has reportedly committed suicide, although reports also hold he was found with five shots in his chest.

Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles again yesterday.

North Korea

The BBC reports:

North Korea has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to hit the US mainland, Japan's defence minister says.

The West in general and the US in particular has dinked around with North Korea so long while it worked on this project that the result is that the American population is now vulnerable to an ICBM strike by North Korea. There's no doubt that North Korea will attempt to leverage this against the US.

No US President has been effective in dealing with the Communist Stalinist Theme Park under its current leadership.  As a result, a real question has now developed on what the US can and should do to protect its interests before North Korea is fully nuclear capable.

November 20, 2022

North Korea.

North Korea's dictator/monarch was photographed showing his ICBM's to his 14-year-old daughter this week, thereby actually confirming her existence.

The United States and South Korea have been conducting practice aerial missions.  I'd frankly regard a U.S. airstrike at this point on North Korea's nuclear capacity as not unlikely, although less than 50%.

November 23, 2022

North Korea.

Kim Yo Jong stated that the United States would face “a more fatal security crisis” if it presses forward with its plan to seek condemnation of North Korea's missile behavior in the UN Security Council.

This is a clear threat of violence of some sort.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian security forces raid the Pechersk Lavra Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv on the basis that it feared the monastery might be used for sabotage.

This points out the complicated nature of the relationship between the three branches of Apostolic Christianity in Ukraine. Before the war commenced, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which had been a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, sought and received autocephalous status from the Greek Metropolitan of Constantinople.  This was condemned by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is the largest branch of Eastern Orthodoxy, and a schism developed.  Some of the Ukrainian Orthodox did not go along with the separation and remained subject to the Metropolitan of Moscow.

The other branch is the Eastern Rite Ukrainian Catholic Church, which is in communion with Rome.

The invasion of Ukraine was justified by Putin in part as being in defense of Orthodoxy. Russia under Putin has been highly resistant to social trends in the West and in part this is scene as an aspect of this topic.

November 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russia has been concentrating on destroying infrastructure targets, energy generation in particular, the last several days.  The attacks have been massive in extent and appear to be motivated by the same mistaken reasoning that was behind the Blitz by the Luftwaffe and the Allied strategic bombing campaign of World War Two, that such efforts destroy civilian will to fight.

Iranian Insurrection

Protests have spread to the point where Iran is now regarded to be in a state of pre insurrection and the government is having to deploy armed forces in an attempt to address it.

December 4, 2022

El Salvador/Central American Criminal Crisis

The government of El Salvador deployed a huge number of troops and paramilitary police to enter a gang controlled area near the capitol yesterday.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian Army has crossed the Dnipro.

December 5, 2022

Two Russian air force bombers were destroyed by an explosion on the runway at Engels Air Force Base, which is deep inside of Russia.  Explosions also happened at a Russian Air Force base at Saratov.

Speculation is widespread that these are a deep Ukrainian drone strike.  Both locations are near each other, and they have been used for strikes on Ukraine.  They are near Saratov on the Volga.

December 6, 2022

Russia continues to engage in massive missile strikes on Ukraine, but for the second day in a row Ukraine has hit back with a drone strike on an airfield, this time upon Kursk.\

These strikes contrast with each other in that the Russian strikes are against civil targets, while the Ukrainian ones are on Russian air assets.  Russian behavior is making it easier for Ukraine to hit targets inside of Russia without Western protests, and the Russians seem to be baffled as to how this occurs.  News about the strikes has come from Russian media, with the Russians seemingly being stunned that it's occurring.

What is not clear is the extent to which Ukraine can continue this, and whether these raids are essentially experimental.  If Ukraine can manufacture these long range drones in sufficient numbers, Russian air assets will have to be pulled back to more distant bases and logistical stockpiles in Russia will become endangered.

December 22, 2022

100,400 Russian soldiers have died in the war.

That figure is roughly twice the number of Americans who died in the very long Vietnam War, the last major war fought by the United States (yes, there have been wars since then, but not on that scale).  Added to that, in 1973 when that war ended for the US, it's population exceeded that of Russia's now.

15,000 Russians died in Afghanistan.

President Zelensky spoke personally to Congress this week.

December 26, 2022

Putin suggested he's ready for talks, while blaming the lack of talks on everyone else.

He's also hinted that the property of Russian oligarchs who are not supporting the war may be confiscated.

Russian assaults, which are not achieving much, remain unabated

FWIW, Christmas, on the Orthodox calendar, is January 7, 2023, on its liturgical calendar.  While I wouldn't put too much stock in it, if there'd be a calendar based timing for some sort of dramatic peace related event coming from the Russians, and I'm not saying that there is, that'd be a good date for it.

December 27, 2022

President Zelenskyy has indicated that he's relying on India to advance a peace proposal to Russia.

In spite of news of peace talks being a possibility appearing in the Western press, it's highly doubtful that any peace negotiations will start any time soon.

December 27, cont.

Russia today issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to accept Russian terms or the Russian army will settle the issue, according to Russia.

This would seem to suggest that Russia is on the verge of launching a new offensive and presumably it has some confidence that this one will be successful, something of which there is no guaranty.

December 29, 2022

Alexei Maslov, a senior Russian Army armor officer who had fallen under criticism, has been reported dead within a day of a meeting with Putin being cancelled.

Pavel Antov, age 69, a Russian sausage tycoon, fell to his death at an Indian hotel.  His friend, Vladimir Budanov, died at the same hotel four days prior.

An unusual number of oligarchs and Russian figures of note have died since the war started. Antov adds to the list, since the war commenced, that includes the following:

Leonid Shulma, age 60, by suicide. Igor Nosov, age 43, stroke.  Alexander Tyulakov age 61, suicide. Mikhail Watford age 66.  Vasily Melnikov age 43 Wife and two sons found dead beside him. Vladislav Avayevage 51. Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him Sergey Protosenya age 55, Hanged from a handrail, wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds. Andrei Krukovsky age 33.  Fell from cliff. Alexander Subbotin age 31.  Drug induced heart attack. Yuri Voronov age 61. Gunshot wounds to the head, pistol found next to his body.  Dan Rapoport age 52.  Fall. Ravil Maganov age 67. Fell out of a hospital window.  Ivan Pechorin age 39. Fell off boat and drowned. Vladimir Sungorkin age 68. Stroke. Anatoly Gerashchenko age 72.  Fall. Pavel Pchelnikov age 52. Suicide. Vyacheslav Taran age 53 Helicopter crash. Grigory Kochenov age 41.  Fall from balcony during police search of apartment. Dmitriy Zelenov age 50.  Injuries sustained in fall.

That's rather odd.

December 30, 2022

United States v. ISIL

The US announced it has killed about 700 ISIL operatives over the past year, with this taking place in Syria and Iraq.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia continues its massive missle campaign against Ukrainian infrastruture, clearly intending to completely destroy it.

Last prior Edition.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.

Recent Related Threads:

The Man of the Year.

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Time magazine, on their choice to make Volodymyr Zelensky their Man of the Year.

I had no doubt he would be.

Odd to live in a year in which some in far off lands rose so bravely to the occasion, while others closer to home failed so greatly to live up to obvious standards.

What is wrong with the Putin supporting right?

Maybe the color of the GOP really should be red. . .