The 2024 Election, Part VIII. Speeding toward the missing bridge

 

One Year Until The General Election.

Ugh, there's a time when that would have seen like a long time.

And it still should.  Would that it would have been only 90 days prior to an election that anyone could even announce.

A full year of watching the clock count down.

A full year of pundits like Robert Reich telling you can't vote for a third party, and must vote for one of the two absurdities that are the current majority parties.

A full year of bizarro weird diction from Donald Trump.

A full year of two really old men compete for the votes of voter less than half their ages.

Nifty.

November 6, 2023

The latest polls show Trump beating Biden in the Fall election.

Simply amazing.

It'll all come down to five states, and about 100,000 voters, who will decide which of the two ancient men will lead the most powerful, if declining, nation on earth.

Both, FWIW, are showing signs of cognitive decline.  This has been obvious for a while, but it was mentioned in regard to Trump for the first time on one of the weekend news shows.  He's now getting noticeably confused and increasingly erratic.

Regarding cognitive decline, the fact that these are the nation's choices make it appear as the United States itself is suffering from cognitive decline.

While there will be plenty of it "it's not too late" comments, it pretty much is unless the Democrats dump Biden. The electorate doesn't want him, or Trump. And yet the parties insist on offering both of them. At least with the GOP, it's because their base really does want Trump, as frightening as that is.   The Democrats do not want Biden.

November 8, 2023

And yet another poll shows Biden slipping further behind, even as the Democrats did well in yesterday's election.

If Biden isn't replaced as the candidate, there will be a second Trump term.

November 9, 2023

Donald Trump, yesterday:

Kim Jong-un leads 1.4 billion people, and there's no doubt about who the boss is, and they want me to say he's not an intelligent man.

Geez Louise, this is wrong in so many ways.

First of all, 1.4 B is the approximate population of China.  North Korea has about 24M.

And nobody is saying that Kim Jong-un isn't intelligent, they're saying he's bad.

Trump has a thing for dictators. . . 

During the GOP debate, one of the candidates proposed bombing targets in Iran.

cont:

Joe Manchin will not be running for reelection to the Senate in West Virginia.

Manchin was quite conservative, a fact which had given him a power broker role in the Senate.  His departure, while not wholly unexpected, does put the GOP within striking distance of taking back the Senate.

November 10, 2023

Jill Stein has opted to lose again as the Green Party's candidate for President.

November 13, 2023

Tim Scott has dropped out of the GOP race.

In terms of serious candidates, that leaves Haley, Christie, DeSantis, and of course, Trump.  There are others, but they're already reached the point of now return. The winnowing process is now well-developed.

Overall in the Republican race right now, the following are the serious candidates in terms of still (sort of) being contenders against Trump.

Trump.

Doug Burgum

Chris Christie

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Asa Hutchinson

Of the above, Hutchinson should drop out, as his campaign is gaining no traction and is essentially the same as Christie's.  Burgum should drop out as well as his campiagn has generated little interest, mostly due to his own waffling on Trump.

GOP candidates still around that nobody is paying any attention to are:

Scott Alan Ayers   

Ryan Binkley

Robert S. Carney 

John Anthony Castro

Peter Jedick   

Perry Johnson

Perry Johnson   

Donald Kjornes

Mary Maxwell   

Glenn McPeters

Glenn J. McPeters    

Scott Peterson Merrell   

Darius L. Mitchell   

Vivek Ramaswamy

Sam Sloan   

David Stuckenberg   

Rachel Swift

Of these, only Ramaswamy is newsworthy, but most due to his being noisy and somewhat of a gadfly.  So, in terms of real candidates, what the GOP actually has is:

Trump.

Doug Burgum

Chris Christie

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Asa Hutchinson

Vivek Ramaswamy

On the Democratic side, there are actually just about as many people running, but really only Biden and Dean Phillips are serious candidates. . . so far.

While it'll put me outside the mainstream, I very strongly suspect that Joe Manchin and Joe Biden have had a conversation about Biden dropping out, and Manchin stepping in.

Manchin is in his early 70s, which is still old, but younger than Trump.  He's also a bonafide centrist.  Liberal Democrats would hate this development, centrist Democrats, independents and traditional Republicans would welcome it.  It would be a smart move.  Right now, I'm predicting, as radical as it is, that Biden will drop out this month, followed by Manchin announcing a run.

In other news, Californian Republican House member McCarthy is indicating he may not run for reelection.

November 14, 2023

Apparently a retired lawyer has filed a 14th Amendment challenge to Trump, and oddly Cynthia Lummis who doesn't run again until 2026, in court.  Secretary Gray sent out a press release on the matter.

Secretary Gray Condemns Attempt to Remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis from Future Ballots in Wyoming

     CHEYENNE, WY – In response to a recent filing in Wyoming District Court seeking to remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis (whose term ends in 2026) from future ballots in Wyoming, Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray announced his plans to vigorously defend against the filing (Newcomb v. Chuck Gray).

     “The attempt to remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis from the ballot is outrageously wrong and repugnant to our electoral process,” Secretary Gray said in a statement. “I am preparing a vigorous defense to stop these blatant, radical attempts to interfere with Wyoming’s elections. The weaponization of the Fourteenth Amendment to remove political opponents from the ballot undermines the sanctity of the Constitution. We are preparing to file a motion to dismiss to block this attempt at election interference. And we are committed to protecting the integrity of our elections and ensuring that the people of Wyoming can choose who to elect for themselves.”

November 15, 2023

A Michigan Court has rejected a 14th Amendment claim against Trump.  It will be appealed.

November 17, 2023

Rep. Hageman went after Tim Newcomb's lawsuit regarding Trump being disqualified from being on the ballot for insurrection.

This isn't really surprising, Hageman is in political debt to Trump, but it's interesting in that she partially attacks the effort as unconstitutional and for using the legal system.  Attempting to use the legal system is exactly what Trump attempted in order to try to retain office, and Trumpites have continually taken refuge in that fact.

Last Prior Edition:

The 2024 Election, Part VII. Drama

The 2024 Election, Part VI. The 14th Amendment Edition.

AMENDMENT XIV

Section 1.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Section 2.

 

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

Section 3.

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of

 

President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Section 4.

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Section 5.

The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

It is increasingly clear that the 14th Amendment is going to be used as a legal basis to challenge Donald Trump's ability to be a Presidential nominee this election.   

And legal scholars, weighting in, have read this language to bar his ability to do so.  Two non-profit legal groups have made it known that they are going to be filing suits.

I suppose we should list running, at the present time, in this sad show.

President.

Democrats:

Joe Biden; the incumbent.  

While a majority of Democrats and voters in general are disenchanted with the aged President, he will take the nomination absent something unexpected occurring.

Marianne Williamson.

Gadfly. Williamson mostly serves to remind voters that there are some real wackadoodles in the Democratic Party.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.  

As if Williamson wasn't enough of a wackadoodle. Kennedy is receiving attention, but his candidacy isn't likely to go anywhere.  Known for some unconventional views.

Republicans.

Donald Trump. 

The former President, who is facing multiple felony charges, but who has a large number of fanatic followers in spite of having nearly every deficit as a candidate imaginable.

Nikki Haley

In a normal election cycle, we could expect Haley to do well.

Vivek Ramaswamy.  

Youngest candidate, oddly tacking to the right of Trump on some things, and getting increasingly extreme as the election goes on.

Perry Johnson,

largely unknown businessman.  Age 75.  Because we need more old people to run for this office.

Larry Elder 

Conservative African American radio host.  71 years of age, and first time candidate.

Asa Hutchinson. 

Former Governor of Arkansas and conventional, non MAGA, Republican. Age 72.

Tim Scott.

African American Senator from South Carolina.

Ron DeSantis

Governor of Florida.

Chris Christie

Former Governor of New Jersey. Blunt anti Trump candidate.

Mike Pence.

Boring, if briefly heroic, former Vice President.

Doug Burgum

Governor of North Dakota who can't muster up enough courage to discuss Trump's coup.

Will Hurd 

Congressman from Texas.

Steve Laffey 

A politician you've never heard of but who is apparently on the New Hampshire ballot.

Ryan Binkley 

A Texas businessman and Protestant Pastor.

Green Party

Cornel West.  

West would be familiar to watchers of news shows and PBS from the late 20th Century, but his candidacy here nearly reduces him to gadfly status.

American Solidarity Party

Peter Sonski  

Sonski is a businessman who is the ASP's choice for President this year. The party is a Christian Democratic Party that ought to receive more attention, and would in a fairer system.

Lurking on the outside of all of this is No Labels, which in spite of the existence of third parties, threatens to launch a non-party third party run at the Oval Office.  Joe Manchin is continually mentioned as its potential candidate, although the Democrats desperately hope he'll stay in the Senate.

In terms of more local races:

U.S. Senate

Republicans

John Barrasso, maybe?

The long serving Senator has not announced if he's running or not.  Right now, because it's pretty obvious that Mitch McConnell is headed on to the next realm, he stands to potentially be Senate Majority Leader.

Reid Rasner.

Rasner has announced and is running essentially as a far right populist.  If Barrasso stays in, his campaign will be forgotten within days of the primary election.

September 3, 2023

The Heritage Foundation and others have worked out a Project 2025 as a plan to radically reshape the Federal Government should Trump come to power.

As the Heritage Foundation would have it:

The fourth pillar of Project 2025 is our 180-day Transition Playbook and includes a comprehensive, concrete transition plan for each federal agency.  Only through the implementation of specific action plans at each agency will the next conservative presidential Administration be successful. 

Pillar IV will provides the next President a roadmap for doing just that.  To learn more about Project 2025’s vision for a conservative administration, please read our recently published book, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.

September 7, 2023

Six Colorado voters have filed an action seeking to bar Donald Trump from running for election under the 14th Amendment.  The complaint is a phenomenal 115 pages long and is effectively a brief.

The relief sought is as follows:

This is the second such lawsuit that's been filed. The first was dismissed, although I haven't researched why.  Lack of standing would be my guess.

One of these suits is going to hit home and succeed.  Some might note that Trump is not likely to prevail in the general election in Colorado anyhow, but this would mean that Colorado's primary votes would go to another GOP candidate, should it succeed.

As noted, somewhere it will, and depending upon when it happens, this issue will have to go to the Supreme Court rapidly.  While predicting the ultimate outcome is hazardous, my guess is that there's a fair chance that the Supreme Court will ultimately hold that Trump is not qualified to run.

cont:

So on the same day a lawsuit was filed in Colorado, Secretary of State Gray wrote to the SoS of New Hampshire, stating:

How much sway Wyoming has with New Hampshire, or for that matter any state's SoS with another's, is an open question, but the direction of this seems clear.  Some state is going to find Trump can't be on the ballot and this will have to go to the Supreme Court.  That will determine the issue for every state.

Gray touches upon, but doesn't really answer, an important issue here, that being, how is it to be determined that a person was in an insurrection?  Being convicted of having been in one, under a statute that could give rise to that determination, is one thing, and in fact odds are good that Trump will have been by November 2024.  But that clearly isn't, I think, required by the 14th Amendment for the reason that Secretary Gray notes, the Civil War example.  Nobody was tried for the crime of having engaged in a treasonous rebellion against the United States following the Civil War.  Clearly at the time the mere presumption of Confederate service was enough.  As that's the only example, it would seem that presumption would operate here as well such that, if a SoS determines that Trump aided and abetted an insurrection, it would be up to Trump to prove that he did not.

The lawsuits will work differently, of course, as they have that as part of their allegations, and therefore That issue will be for them to prove at trial, or perhaps by motion.

September 11, 2024

Latest polls put Trump ahead of Biden in the General Election.

That presumes, of course, that they both win their nominations.  Democratic spokesmen fielded to the weekend shows are trying to brush it off by noting that the economy is strong, unemployment low, and there are 14 months left to go.  But it's a bad sign for Biden, no matter what.

This would suggest that both Democrats and rank and file (not populist) Republicans need to wake up.  If Trump takes the Oval Office, it will complete the conversion of the GOP into a right wing populist party which will have huge impacts on the country for the foreseen future, and certainly during the next four years.

If Republicans are to take him on, what they really need to do is to meet at this time and determine that those leaning into Trump should get out.  They're not going to do anything.  They need to get their field down as small as possible.

For the Democrats, they need to meet with Joe and propose a moderate substitute.  

September 14, 2023

Legislators have criticized a ballot initiative to limit property tax in Wyoming, noting that it would strip funding for schools.

They're correct.

A lot of the local anger over property taxes is frankly ironic. For decades, Wyoming communities have encouraged relocation into the state, which ipso facto brings in wealth and raises property values overall.  Indeed, many relocatees upgrade their dwellings by doing so.  Meanwhile, local government and infrastructure needs remain, if not in fact grow.

The solution is more distributist, localist and involving subsidiarity and solidarity, which was the case all along.

Vivek Ramaswamy vowed to cut the federal workforce by 75% by the end of his term if elected, which is frankly absurd.\

Mitt Romney has announced that he will not be running for reelection. This brought out the predictable assortment of Trump trolls condemning Romney for not being a Trump troll.  It also brougth the following comment from the former President:

There is something deeply weird about comments like this coming from Trump.  With all the attention to Biden's mental status, there's little with Trump, but something is off with him.

September 19, 2023

President Trump was interviewed by the new host of Meet The Press.

The interview is revealing for the way in which Trump has become so proficient at lying, he sounds credible while doing so, helping to provide some insight to why his followers believe him.  He spouts lies with such routine blandness that they sound like somebody repeating what he believes to be the truth.  If people only listened to Trump, you may well be convinced that the falsehoods reflect reality.

September 21, 2023

The Natrona County GOP invited WyoRino to a meeting they held to debate him/her/they.  Some members of the county's Republican Party have been in the crosshairs of the anonymous blogger.  Predictably, he didn't show up to the event, and so conservative Cowboy State Daily's not so conservative Op Ed columnist Rod Miller had nobody to debate.  From reading about it, some other populists did show up, however.

Now, one of the non Natrona County GOP legislators, Larry Craigo of Johnson County, is the subject of an anonymous mailer.  He's called that person/persons cowardly.

There's something interesting going on here.

Whoever is behind these efforts, and it of course may be a collection of people has spare money to devote to this effort.  I've seen a large vinyl WyoRINO banner locally, and WyoRINO bought a billboard here as well.

Spare cash, far right wing, those are the clues really.

Trump has announced that he's going to Michigan rather than the next debate.  This will likely be pretty scripted, as the UAW isn't exactly pro Trump, even if many of its rust belt employees share many of his non labor views.

Of course, Bernie Sanders has weighed in. . . 

Last Prior Thread:

The 2024 Election, Part V. Wooing the primary voters.

Related Threads:

The Post Insurrection. Part VII. The Insurrectionist.

This is why we can't have nice things. "You can't vote for a third party". Oh yes, you can.

This is why we can't have nice things. "You can't vote for a third party". Oh yes, you can.

This view is precisely why American democracy is so screwed up

No Labels, no fables, no third-party betrayals

All Americans who believe in democracy must unite behind Joe Biden.

Robert Reich is here to tell you, along with every other Democratic pundit, that if you aren't voting for Joe Biden, you are a traitor to democracy.  Indeed, he states:

Let me be absolutely clear. Third-party groups such as No Labels and the Green Party are in effect front groups for Trump in 2024, and should be treated as such.

That's BS.

Let's be frank, the Democratic Party's love of democracy was rediscovered during the insurrection.  At that point, it suddenly realized that anti-democratic forces are bad.  Prior to that, and even now, what it really is for is rule by Liberal Ivy League Educated Judges. 

The Democrats regard voters as besotted fools.  They have for years, with it really becoming apparent following 1973's Roe v. Wade decision. They still feel that way. They hate the thought that courts can't descend from wooden walls and tell the peasantry what to think.

One of the things that they hate the most about recent years is that the Supreme Court has torn down some totally defective prior decision and told the people that they'll just have to figure things out for themselves. The Court, for example, hasn't "taken away" a non-existent "right to abortion". There was never one. The Court could have decided, on natural law principles, that abortion is contrary to the laws of nature on an existential basis and declared a right to life, but it didn't do that, in spite of all the howling.  It just said that people, through their state legislatures, have to figure this out for themselves.

The Democrats hate that thought, and for good reason.  It means that in many places, if left to their own devices, people would decide all sorts of things that Democrats regard as individualistic rights aren't. And the reason is plain. The driving force of the Democratic Party essentially believes that if you regard yourself as a feline asexual Bhutanese princess, you should be able to force everyone else to agree with you.  Most people just don't think that way, however.  

That doesn't mean that Trump should be elected, either. The GOP has abandoned democracy in favor of authoritarianism, and that always leads to disaster.  The dirty little secret as to why Trump has so much support in the rank and file of the GOP isn't because most Republicans believe the election was stolen, no matter what they say, but rather than they've grown so disgusted with the Democratic Party and establishment Republicans that they no longer regard Democrats or establishment Republicans as legitimate, and therefore don't think they should count.  Indeed, we have gotten to where we are at as the Democrats regard voters as unwashed vulgarians who should merely be entertained with the thought their votes mean something, the country club Republicans regard the electorate as mindless consumers whose opinions don't count, and a certain section of that electorate just has  had enough of it. 

In other words, the Democrats viewed the electorate as too stupid to influence anything, and the Republicans viewed them as Walmart customers only.

That this may mean the end of American democracy is both parties' fault.

That either of those parties would now have the gall to suggest that parties that actually reflect people's views shouldn't be voted for is maddening.  If we'd had parties that actually reflected people's views all along, we wouldn't be here now.  And the thought that the diversity of political opinion can be summed up with two choices is flatly bizarre.

The argument, by either party, that "you must vote for us or else it's Trump" is an argument of last resort.  The challenge for the Democrats isn't to present Biden as the only choice to Trump, but to give the voters somebody they feel comfortable with. Somebody who isn't 80 years old and hasn't gone so far to the left.  The challenge for Republicans, which may be a party that is now too far gone, is to give us somebody who will really do conservative, but not fascist, things rather than just say they will.

And frankly, the challenge for American democracy is to make a choice between Republicans and Democrats much, much less important. Why aren't there members of the Green Party and the American Solidarity Party in Congress?   Why do the Paul's run as Republicans when they're really Libertarians?  Why does Bernie Sanders "caucus" with the Democrats when he should be looking for a Socialist to join him? These are questions that shouldn't have to be asked.