Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 13. “Walmart Recession Signal” grows louder.


October 21, 2026

According to the economist who came up with it, the “Walmart Recession Signal” indicating an oncoming recession is getting louder.

Tonight, I'm also pleased to announce that the Department of Agriculture will be launching a new harvest fuel relief program, providing our farmers with $8 billion in support to offset diesel costs during this harvest season

Donald Trump.

So the fuel relief is to relieve high fuel prices caused by the war against Iran which is illegal, and will be paid for by money we don't have.

Sure, that makes sense somehow.

Oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, under US protection, at roughly the same amount it was before the war now.

In other news.

Oklahoma Tribe Buys One Of The Biggest Horse Betting Operations In Wyoming

Sublette Rejects Appeal For Girls Treatment Center, Owners May Take Fight To Court

October 22, 2026

Natrona County eyes two school closures. One is 40 miles away, the other is right around the corner

One of the schools is in Midwest.

In a real irony, former House District 58 representative Patrick Sweeney went to the Midwest town hall on the subject.  Long serving Sweeney was ousted by current representative Bill Allemand after the district was redrawn. Alleman was a complete asshole to Sweeney in a debate and ran, that time, as firebrand Freedom Caucuser.

He survived a challenge from Bar Nunn Mayor Peter Boyer whom he became crosswise with over a proposal to place the Radiant nuclear generator plant north of Bar Nunn, something Bar Nunn could not have stopped. Bar Nunn's city council meetings became the bizarre focus of the topic however with outraged populists even accusing some city council members of taking bribes, an absolute absurdity.  Radiant eventually grew tired of the matter and decamped to Tennessee.  Allemand, for his part, was arrested not all that long after for drunk driving.  He's one of the few surviving members of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, barely hanging on to his seat.

Allemand is apparently backing fanciful thoughts of declaring the school to be a charter school or forming a new school district, neither of which will occur  It was really admirable of Sweeney to go out and speak to a group of people about their plight, which is concerning, which their votes for Allemand helped bring about.  It's the classic Leopard's won't eat my face situation. 

Campbell County Moves $500 Million Nuclear Fuel Facility Closer To Reality

Gillette Targeted For Massive $575 Million Uranium Processing Plant

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 12, the Deflect and Deny edition.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 10, The Autarky Edition.


Autarky is the economic concept of producing everything a nation consumes within its own borders.  It's been tried numerous times, and inevitably leads at best to high prices and deprivation. At worst, it results in warfare.

Autarky was the official economic model of the Nazi Party after German economist Hjalmar Schacht joined the party in 1926 and after Gregor Strasser was ousted from party influence.* Nazi Germany provides a perfect example of how it doesn't work.  Germany was a major industrial power leading up to, during and after World War Two (it still is), but it could never produce enough of anything for its own economy, even in peacetime.  Moreover, it didn't have the raw materials to supply all it did produce.  It imported 20% of its food supply in the early 1930s, and by the late 1930s the Nazis had only managed to boost that to 83%.

The solution was simple.

What the Germans did have, they could just seize from neighboring countries through war, and then either kill off the native population or subjugate it.  That's exactly what it attempted to do.  It pursued that murderously in Poland and the Soviet Union, and through vassal states in the form of France, Romania and Spain.  Where that proved to be impossible. . . for the time being, it used bullying and threats, such as in regard to Sweden.

Even at that, it was never able to do it.

That seems to be to some extent what Donald Trump is advocating right now.

If we were playing hardball, all we'd do is say we're going to do no trading with Canada. If we did no trading with Canada would save $90 billion.

We could do tremendous good for ourselves by just not trading with countries..  We lose with Mexico $195 billion a year. They have nothing that we have to have, I mean. Hot tamales, tomatoes, a couple of things

Trump seems to believe that by closing the economic border with Canada and Mexico, and everyone else, unless they essentially become vassal states, the US can simply go it alone and not be harmed.  Where it's obvious that won't work, we'll force acquisition, as we have now done in Venezuela and keep threatening to do with Greenland.  

This is immoral, and stupid.

You'd think that a guy who went to Wharton would have a basic grasp of economics.  Open economic borders, truly open economic borders, make countries rich, not poor.  That doesn't mean that there's never a place for tariffs, including for protectionism, but it's generally a bad idea.  

What makes for more sense is for the United States, Mexico, and Canada, to have a seamless economy with no tariffs at all.  The US and Canada had a nearly duty free relationship prior to Trump, save for the infamous very high ones on dairy, poultry, and egg products.  Those latter tariffs were absurd, but the US also has absurd tariffs in the agricultural sector.  The US relationship with Mexico is, right now, duty free.

An absolute lack of tariffs is how it should be between the three major North American economies.  Only an an economic ignoramus would disrupt that.

And only an immoral person would advocate taking the oil of another nation that is providing it under the gun.  The US has been an oil addict for a century, but was showing signs of getting off the stuff.  Trump, with his "it's always the 1950s" mindset can't seem to get out of that.

Trump should really know better.  Wharton has a reputation as one of the best, maybe the best, business school in the country.  He owes us an explanation, which he seems to be incapable of articulating, for his idiotic economic views. Wharton, and I'm serious about this, does as well.  I know one Wharton graduate personally, and he is brilliant. But the example of Donald Trump is to weird to explain. For that matter, the example of Wyoming's Chuck Gray, who is an absolute Trump sycophant, is as well.

We need a combination of supreme moral sensitivity and economic knowledge. Economically ignorant moralism is as objectionable as morally callous economism. Ethics and economics are two equally difficult subjects, and while the former needs discerning and expert reason, the latter cannot do without humane values.

Wilhelm Röpke, A Humane Economy: The Social Framework of the Free Market

September 8, 2026

Retaliatory Canadian tariffs took place today with duties ranging from 15% to 50% across hundreds of U.S. products worth a total CA$27.6 billion, including dairy, agricultural equipment, paper, household appliances and electronics.

This will hurt Canadian consumer through increased cost to them, and American producers due to decreased demand.

Cont:

September 8, 2026

And as this wasn't enough, 5he United States is banning the import of some dairy products motorcycles and  most alcoholic beverages from Canada.

This is rank stupidity.  Peter Navarro ought to be sent to kindergarten and Wharton declared a clown college.


So, if you can, go out and buy a Can Am motorcycle and some Crown Royal.


Well, probably not.  I'm too old to start riding a motorcycle (I'd much prefer a mule) and I can't stand Crown Royal.  But if I liked Canadian whiskey, I'd go buy some for spite.

I may just for spite.

September 10, 2026

Cont:

U.S. wholesale inflation hits 5.4% annually in August 2026.

More good news from the Trump administration.

September 11, 2026

Lame duck defeated state senator Bob Ide used the Hilltop disaster to say something monumentally stupid.

Hilltop Bank Shutdown Just Confirms Why Wyoming Needs Gold, Lawmaker Says

Bob, that's stupid.

September 15, 2026

Oil everywhere is up over $100/bbl and set to rise.

Prices at the pump are at record highs.

This appears to be set to get extremely bad.

September 16, 2026

The Fed raised interest rates, contrary to the wish of King Donald.

cont:


This guy is a Wharton graduate?

September 17, 2026

Railroad surcharges on grain have doubled over the past year.

September 18, 2026
If we buy $2 billion worth of bananas from Brazil, we’re actually losing $2 billion. So if we stop eating bananas, we actually save $2 billion.
Donald Trump

Oh for goodness sakes.  What an idiotic statement.

But one Trump appears to really believe.

First of all, a trade deficit in and of itself, unless you believe in autarky, si not a bad thing.  A rich country, which Trump is helping to end our status as, will probably have a trade deficit.  Trade deficits can be bad, but not simply because they exist, but for other reasons.

And, this is a classic example from the Wealth of Nations.

The US produces hardly any bananas.  Just some in Florida, which stay in Florida, and some in Hawaii.  

The US imports hardly any bananas from Brazil. Brazil only exports about  $21 million to $24 million anywhere.  Brazil does import $11.23 billion in fuel from the US.  And this economic analysis is moronic.

Even assuming that we bought bananas from Brazil, which we do not, if we are to eat bananas, and people like bananas, we have to buy them from a foreign source.  We given them money, we get bananas.  

That doesn't make us poor, it actually does the opposite.

Which, once again, leads to this:

WHARTON, WHAT THE FUCK IS MATTER  WITH YOU?  HOW DID THIS GUY GRADUATE WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE ONE OF THE BEST ECONOMIC SCHOOLS IN THE WORLD?

September 24, 2026

The Secretary of Agriculture reports that if you don't like beef prices, you can switch to chicken or pork.

That's frankly quite true, and it's a thing that producers need to worry about.  Pork was the primary meat for most Americans up until the post Civil War era.  Once people make a major shift in diet, they tend to stick with it.

September 21, 1946 advertisement from the American Meat Institute featuring a leg of lamb.

On this topic, the news relates that a top Texas BBQ joint will no longer offer beef brisket. Too expensive.  That isn't a good sign.

Also regarding meat, the USDA is recalling 167,000 lbs of uninspected beef, pork and goat meat.

On all of this, the meat prices would be easy to blame on Trump, as the Wharton School of Business seems to be economically incompetent.  This, however, is largely due to other factors, although I don't know how to explain the inspection glitch.

One thing that will impact the price of meat. . .and everything else, is the price of fuel.  Indeed, after a year that featured record cattle prices, for those who had cattle to sell, profits are now being lost to diesel fuel.

A common cry out there in the hinterlands right now is to impose an export ban on diesel fuel.  Such a ban was in place from 1975 to 2015.  It's really debated what lifting the ban would do.  Midwest GOP candidates started crying for it recently, but Wyoming's Congressional representation opposes it. That doesn't tell us much, however, as Wyoming's delegation probably wouldn't oppose a proposal to nuke the state.

Anyhow, Trump indicated support for a temporary ban, and then energy secretary Chris Wright walked it back, which is extremely interesting, particularly as farmers in the Midwest are now having real second thoughts about King Donald now that they realize he's fucking them with his policies, and not other people they didn't car about.

September 29, 2026

The Trump ban on the importation of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles, comes into effect today.

The ban is moronic.

Trump rolled back fuel efficiency standards on automobiles, as he's an ancient fool about to die and lives in the past in many ways.

And, on fuel, this item:

As Wyoming Tries Again To Build Out EV Charging Network, Trump Goes The Other Way

Wyoming has always had some progressive and farsighted people working behind the scenes while, at the same time, the troglodyte faction of the GOP, particularly strongly represented in the Wyoming Freedom Caucus From The South seek to believe it's 1861.  

Electric vehicles are coming, and diesel at $6.00 will help revive interest in them.  The comments on this, of course, are "dem new fangle aut o mobiles won't replace the horse", basically.  EVs are coming, like it or not, and when the Trump administration is in the outhourse of history where it so richly belongs, they'll significantly revive.

September 30, 2026

A flood of Chinese soda ash has Wyoming’s industry swimming in troubled waters

And with the following item, we'll close out this installment:

The soaring cost of diesel means a bumpy road for school buses in Colorado

Footnotes

*Strasser was permanently ousted from influence in the Night of the Long Knives.

Schacht is interesting in that he was never a Nazi himself and was involved in prewar anti Nazi plots.  He served in the German government nonetheless.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 9, 25th Amendment Watch, 23d Edition. The Canadian Harvard and Oxford doctor in economics vs. the Wharton playboy. The Trade War with Canada edition.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Banning the export of diesel as King Donald can start wars, but cannot win them.

Diesel fuel prices have shot up since King Donny thought that beating Iran would be a cheap and easy matter, and hence attacked them.

What the war is about is not really clear.  King Donald has given multiple excuses for it but with the price of fuel shooting up, he's latched on to the "Iran was going to get a bomb" line.  According to an article in Scientific American Iran was, in fact, nowhere close to being able to do that.

And there are other reasons to suspect that was only in the background.  The war really looks like an idea that Bibi Netanyahu had knowing that Trump was pliable and probably that the administration was packed with far right wing Evangelicals who see whatever  Israel does as sanctioned by God to some degree.  You can't blame Bibi for that, it was a golden opportunity to knock a major Israeli enemy down a few pegs, if not out of the enemy category entirely.

It didn't work.

Right now, we're stuck in what looks like an endless war with Iran.  All the conventional theories about how to win the war are wrong. The war turns out to be as Clausewitzian as any.  In order to win, we'd have to invade the country with ground troops and not even King Donald is up for that.

In the meantime, the economic warfare Iran is conducting is working really well.  Iran has brought its clients, the Houthis, into the fight, and they've hit Saudi Arabia.  The US has done nothing about that, in spite of a Saudi request for assistance.  Indeed, we've apparently told the Houthis, who have "Death to America" as part of their slogan, that we'll turn a blind eye to that spat. The Saudi military is not widely regarded as a very good one, which is problematic as they are being put in a situation in which they may well have to conduct a ground invasion of Yemen.

So the price of diesel is way up.

Of course, King Donald and his flunkies insist that its up as Ukraine his hitting Russian petroleum facilities.  That claim is partially true, but they've been doing that for years now.  The price didn't start to skyrocket until recently.

King Donny, you own this.

And that will impact the price of everything.  The trucking industry likes to boast that "everything comes by truck". Well, a lot does, and that's a problem.  Everything that comes by truck is going to have its price go up. Everything that goes by rail will as well.

In short, everything.

And we haven't even touched on the costs to agriculture.

So, in desperation, some members of Congress have noticed that the US experts diesel fuel.  If we prohibit that, the price will go down, right?

Probably not. 

Petroleum products in general are one of scale.  If there's less of a market, refiners might just switch to something else.  And of course the price of petroleum itself will likely not go down.

And hence this.

Diesel, and gasoline, prices may be Trump's one real lasting legacy.

They might never go down.

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Friday, September 20, 1946. Wallace out.

Truman asked Henry Wallace to resign, eight days after Wallace's controversial speech in New York, stating that "the Government of the United States must stand as a unit in its relations with the rest of the world".

Last edition:

Thursday, September 19, 1946. Churchill proposes a United States of Europe.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

King Donald's War, Part 12. The "Economic D-Day" edition. CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist 152nd Edition, the irony edition.

The fearsome Scott Bessent.

August 26, 2026

King Donny sent the fearsome Scott Bessent out to cause the Iranians to quiver in their boots, announcing that the US would inflict an "Economic D-Day" on Iran.

Except the US is going to exempt China, meaning that Operation Economic Outcast was stillborn from the very beginning.

Midweek Update#25: Sanctions Without China Are A Sign Of Defeat

So, It Turns Out That The US Is Winning!; A Story Illustrating Why This Pentagon Cannot Be Trusted

The US is moving its ambassadors back to the Middle East, however, which suggests it either naively thinks this will work, or that it's just going to give up.

Meanwhile:

Pentagon reveals hundreds of new Iran war casualties

More than 600 troops have been wounded in the Iran war, officials disclosed Saturday, almost 200 more than previously known.

This post, by the way, is the first one that I've ever had Bessent's name as a label, which surprises me.  He's been mentioned before, but I've never put in a label.

One thing I've thought about doing is posting how he's sort of uniquely a symbol of hypocrisy in the Trump Administration, or maybe in MAGA.  MAGA proclaims loudly that it's for "Christian" values by which it means far right Evangelical values.

Christianity pretty clearly holds that homosexual sex is a mortal sin.  St. Paul was blunt about it.  And yet Bessent is a homosexual in a homosexual union in which two children are being raised.  Most actual Christians of any type would question this, and if Evangelical Christians are to be believed, they find it completely abhorrent.

But then, by the same token, having an alleged president who is a serial polygamist, a special envoy for the Shield of the Americas, whatever that is, who seemed to be having an affair while in her earlier role and whose husband was wearing giant fake boobs in internet photos, etc. etc., is pretty odd too.

Indeed, it's impossible to reconcile.

Mind you, I'm not saying that a homosexual, including one who is in a homosexual union, cannot be an effective Secretary of the Treasury.  I'm saying you can't have an implied policy that everyone who isn't, white, straight, and sympathetic to far right Evangelicalism isn't a real American and still have a homosexual as one of your primary cabinet members and really mean any of that.

Making it all the more odd, Bessent is one of those cabinet members who has in recent months been dragged out to try to explain away whatever brain fart the Trump has uttered.  

That feature of this administration has been there all along.  Whereas for a transportation issue you might, in normal times, get a Transportation official, in this administration you might very well end up getting the Chief Chef of the White House to address it. And people appear and then disappear in that role pretty rapidly.  Chris Wright, the Secretary of Energy, regularly was being hauled out to address the Press on all sorts of things for awhile, right up until he said that Biden was validly elected to the Oval Office.

Goodbye Chris.

Anyhow, there's something extra weird about Bessent, who always seems extremely nervous, being hauled out to address the Press on the war while we have Pete "High T" Hegseth in charge of the "War Department".  Hegseth definitely fits into the far right Evangelical mold and is loud about it, while also being loud about the services being for manly men.  

Well, anyhow.  So much for Operation Economic Outcast.

August 31, 2026

Trump just shot some missiles at Iran and nobody cared

September 1, 2026

Iran, which you will recall supposedly lost the war, numerous times, hit Jordan with missiles within the last couple of days.

Only somewhat related, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who is close to J. D. Vance, submitted his resignation.  It is well known that he does not get along with Hegseth.

September 8, 2026

Iran, which we are repeatedly assured is on the edge of complete collapse, is imposing a restricted zone in the Strati of Hormuz.

September 9, 2026

Houthis attacked four Saudi Arabian cities and their oil installations yesterday opening a new theater in the war.

The US hit Iranian tankers.

September 11, 2026

Iranian allied Houthis seized control of Yemen’s port city of Mocha on Thursday and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands giving them extended control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.  The movies are likely Iranian backed themselves and squeeze Saudi Arabia and the world further.

Meanwhile Donald Trump stated that he expected  the Iran war to end after the U.S.  midterm elections.  D'uh.

If the Houthi advance isn't arrested, it will draw Saudi Arabia back into the Yemeni civil war which will be an expansion of King Donald's War.  

September 12, 2026

It's being reported that Saudi Arabia asked for Trump to intervene against the Houthis.  Trump declined.

What an absolute irony.  Trump illegally engaged in war against Iran where Israel undoubtedly had an influence, if in fact it didn't convince Trump to do it.  That war has caused the Houthis to advance in the Yemeni Civil War, which was always a risk given that they're an Iranian client and have been active previously.  They've struck Saudi Arabia, probably at Iran's request.  Saudi Arabia has legitimately asked the US for assistance as a result, and we've said no.

If only we'd said no to start with.

The Houthis have taken islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Saudi Arabia has halted transfers on its East-West Pipeline.

September 15, 2026

When the Japanese succeeded in launching a surprise attack on Army air installations in Hawaii and on the Navy's base at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 it resulted in a Congressional investigation that ended the careers of the Admiral and General in command.

All that and frankly the Japanese attack wasn't all that predictable.

The Iranian strike on U.S. installations in Bahrain were.

New photos show widespread damage at U.S. positions caused by Iranian missile, drone attacks

Donald Trump and his collection little girls are the most outrageous liars to have ever been in the senior leadership of a democratic nation, and perhaps in the leadership of any nation.  You'd have to look at Nazi Germany to find any comparison, so they are going to excuse this away, but the Iranian counterstrike's success shows a lack of planning and understanding by the Trump Administration that is simply unforgivable.

Related to the outrageous failures of the administration, Thomas Massie introduced Articles of Impeachment on Peter Hegseth including contravention of the War Powers Act, but also including ignoring the laws of war and extrajudicial killings, the latter including the illegal attack on Venezuela.  

With this, we will conclude this addition.

Last edition:

King Donald's War, Part 11. The worst defeat in American History. Sic transit Gloria Mundi.