Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Thursday, March 6, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 2. The Stupidist Trade War In History Edition.

 This will truly be a disaster:

Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.

At least its one thing that will seemingly be impossible for even the most ardent Trumpist to ignore.

 

And those people owe us an explanation, or the owe us an admission of neglect, regarding their support of Donald Trump.

We've discussed Trump here before.  Is he stupid?  Is he addled?  Is he a active Russian asset taking orders?  All three are possible and at this point the last one is starting to look rather hard do ignore.  What better to take out an enemy than to insert, at the country's head your stooge.

Active Russian agent or not, Trump has done more to wreck the country than any public figure since Jefferson Davis.

And it's going to get much, much worse.

As the trade war starts off, Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs.  Economic genius Gov. Abbot of Texas gloated that Canada can't get by without U.S. Cotton, which is the exact same argument the South made during the Civil War when it went into treason. Turns out they grow cotton all over the globe and, moreover, the type of cotton grown in Texas goes into high end shirts, not cheap t-shirts and skivvies, and the like.

On the plus side, the price of American cotton may start to go down due to this stupidity.

Trump threatened to raise the tariffs even more.

Individual Canadians are boycotting the US in every way possible, and they'll never forgive the US for this.  Nor should they.  A country that would elect such an obviously stupid man has an electorate that can't easily be forgiven.  On a higher level, there are serious discussion of cutting off hydroelectric power to the US Northeast, which would be devastating to the region.

Trump, who lies like a rug, says that this is over drugs and illegal immigration.  Next to no illegal drugs come in through Canada, although Canada is a victim of illegal drugs coming into it, as well as illegal firearms.

As for Mexico, it appears Mexico has had enough of Trump and now that between Mexico and Canada the US is in a shit sandwich, it's not backing down either.

Republicans in Congress have become completely spineless and are doing nothing.  Locally, they keep smiling and urging Trump on.

Trump is now also threatening to impose tariffs on the EU, which again makes a person have to wonder, at least a little bit, if Putin is calling in some chits.

It may also be the case that Trump dimwittedly is falling for autarky, the economic theory which tried to have everything produced within the borders of a nation.  Autarky was the economic theory of Nazi Germany, we'd note, which in part lead to it having to conquer or dominate its neighbors. . . .sound familiar?

Autarky is a universally discredited economic theory.  It's never worked, and its not going to work here, if that's the goal.

February 9, 2025

Waffle Hut is imposing a .50 per egg surcharge.

When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One

Donald Trump. 

February 10, 2025

The US has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports in a desperate effort to bring back the economy of 1957.

It won't work.

Prices will rise.

February 14, 2025

And now, reciprocal tariffs.

Inflation has risen to 3%

A population level boycott of American goods is on in Canada.  Part of that is the cancellation of US vacations, which is already having an impact in the tourist industry.

The government announced a massive purchase of Tesla trucks.  Not like that's a conflict or anything.

February 19, 2025

Trump acknowledged in a interview with Fox yesterday (he sure gives a lot of interviews, and plays a lot of golf) that "inflation is back".  In fact, in his typical meandering style, he repeated it several times, and then noted "I had nothing to do with it".

Funny, if it was a month into the Biden Administration the Trumpies would be screaming that it was Biden's fault.

Inflation is going to get worse.  And whatever its causing it now (bird flu helped, but treating the economy like a toy for tariffs didn't help), it's going to be on Trump's watch.

His loyalist won't see it that way.

February 20, 2025

Wyoming has only two hospitals rated at the five star level according to an article in the Trib, one in Cheyenne and one in Jackson.

The information comes from Medicare.gov, so my anticipation it will be fixed by the Trump administration eliminating the ability to access things like this when it gets around to it.

Casper's hospital once belonged to Natrona County but was privatized.  It was having troubles prior to that, but since then it seems to have increased.  It's rates a 3.

February 26, 2025

In spite of the fact that it increases the debt. . . 

Some Republicans begin to get clear eyed.

They convinced me in there. I'm a 'no.' If the Republican plan passes...we're going to add $328 billion to the deficit this year. We're going to add $295 billion to the deficit the year after that...why would I vote for that?!?

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, Republican, on the Republican continuing budget resolution.

The dollars thrown around as being saved by Musk are largely fictional, if in fact is rampaging buffoonery doesn't end up costing the government money.  Only taxes are going to pull us out of this debt.

the House approved the Trump budget resolution.

The bill calls for $2 trillion in overall spending cuts over the next decade, a triviality, to help pay for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, thereby being unbalanced to start with.  It increases increases defense and border spending, with the defense spending being paradoxical given Trump's isolationist views.

This extends, it should be noted, the 2017 tax cuts, which helped put us in a budgetary crisis to start with.  The Republicans recently have used the talking point that this is "unsustainable", which it is.

US consumer confidence dropped the greatest amount it has dropped in four years.

February 28, 2025

And the trade war is back on, of course. The tariffs that Trump suspended on our nearest neighbors are back in play.

Why?

Why indeed.

In part, it may be because the GOP budget, complete with the retention of an income tax rate at an absurdly low rate, is going to skyrocket the deficit and Trump sees this as a way of addressing it. Tariffs are a hidden tax on US taxpayers.

It could be a mere distraction for Trump, who likes to distract the public, it seems.

And as for Canada, Trump seems to have genuine bizarre territorial ambition and weirdly believes that beating up on our neighbor will make them love us.

The only sure thing is that this is going to be a disaster.

March 3, 2025

And, here we go.

The Atlanta Fed is projecting that Q1 GDP will be -1.5%.

That's a contraction of the economy.

Last week's projection was +2.3%, four weeks ago it was +3.9%

Now, younger Trumpers, your word of the week is "Stagflation".

A bright side, however.  With all the deportations, you might be able to replace the job you lose with a field hired hand's. . . 

March 4, 2025

Chinese response to tariffs:

For pork it goes to 47% with this additional 10%. 5% higher than all other countries.

15% on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.

10% on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy.

So, American farmers who voted for Trump. . . you're getting what you voted for.

Canada also hit back with tariffs.

The stock market fell for the second day in a row.

Trump doesn't care about any of this stuff.  It won't impact him personally.  Additionally, somebody gave him a Classic Comics edition on tariffs and he really believes they're the cure for American economic ills, which is absurd.

March 6, 2025

And auto industry tariffs were paused after somebody took Donny's Classic Comics on Tariffs away and made him realize he was completely tanking the auto industry, the dumbass.

He's given them 30 days to relocate production inside the US, which won't happen.

The Wharton School of Business must be so proud. . . .

The DOGE pinheads have put the Dick Cheney Federal Office Building in Casper on a list of buildings to be closed. 

The building was constructed in the 1970s and ultimately all of the Federal offices that were jammed into the Federal Courthouse, which wasn't being used as a courthouse, were moved there.  Then the courthouse resumed being used as a courthouse.

Where the workers would go is another question.  I suppose they would just be terminated. 

This is a monumentally stupid move and there's some suspicion that this building was listed just as its named after Dick Cheney, who was an enormous hero in Wyoming up until King Donny and the Dixiecrats came to rule what had once been the Republican Party.  It'll hurt the state.

Both John Barrasso and Harriet Hageman have offices in the building.

Sell real estate, in general, is a bad idea for anyone or anything if it can be avoided.

cont:

Canada didn't bite and is keeping its counter tariffs on.

cont:

Various provincial controlled liquor distribution entities are pulling US alcohol from the shelves.

Alcohol is generally regarded as a saturated market, so even small differences in sales actually make a big difference.  Prohibition demonstrated that once a product is removed, the taste for it disappears and does not revive, moreover.  Prohibition in the US lasted, of course, from 1919 to 1932, but it destroyed rye whiskey market in the US for eighty years, and devastated the quality of American beer.  Canada, already a major producer of beer and whiskey, will simply fill in the gaps locally.  My guess is that Canadian whiskey sales in the US (personally I don't like Canadian whiskey) will increase in protest of King Donny's actions.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 1.

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Some Republicans begin to get clear eyed.

They convinced me in there. I'm a 'no.' If the Republican plan passes...we're going to add $328 billion to the deficit this year. We're going to add $295 billion to the deficit the year after that...why would I vote for that?!?

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, Republican, on the Republican continuing budget resolution.

The dollars thrown around as being saved by Musk are largely fictional, if in fact is rampaging buffoonery doesn't end up costing the government money.  Only taxes are going to pull us out of this debt.

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Friday, February 25, 1910. Dealing with monopolists.

A grand jury in Newark, New Jersey indicted the National Packing Company and its subsidiaries, Armour, Swift, Morris, and G.H. Hammond of conspiracy to monopolize the nation's meatpacking industry.  Executives were also indicted.

Funny. . . it's every bit as monopolized now. . . 

The early 20th Century, of course, saw a dedicated effort to deal with the excesses of capitalism. Those efforts were, to a large degree, successful.

And forgotten.

Thomas Edison's electric street car was demonstrated in New York.

Last edition:

Friday, February 18, 1910. Morocco held hostage by its own tariffs.

Labels: 

Saturday, February 22, 2025

The 2025 Wyoming Legislative Session. Week 6. In Otter News. Public funds for lack of education. Oh, Canada!



Wyoming otters set to lose protected status after reclassification passes final vote: The likely statute change opens the door for relocating or killing the fish-eating mustelids when they’re deemed a nuisance, but not recreational hunting and trapping.

The entire otters and the legislature series of events has been rather odd.

The Freedom Caucus, which doesn't like the government, even though they are the government, stabbed local governments in the back and got its 50% property tax bill through the House yesterday.

My prediction is that this won't make it through the whole legislature, and if it does, will be vetoed, which will give the WFC somebody to hate, which seems necessary to its politics.

It's been well demonstrated that the WFC really doesn't like education much, and therefore its no surprise an anti education bill advanced in the form of public funds to parents who choose to opt for private schools of various types, preferably those, as we know, that won't teach children science or accurate history.

Universal school vouchers clear Senate with notable addition of pre-K funding: Controversial measure spurred intense debate as lawmakers reported deluge of constituent concerns. Even President Trump weighed in.

Clearing the Senate means it goes back to the House for reconciliation, which will occur. This will then head to the Governor's desk. 

The legislature, controlled as it is by the Freedom Caucus, none the less tried to make nice to Canada this week.
Amid rising tensions, Wyoming Legislature welcomes Canada, biggest buyer of state exports: Republican leaders of the Legislature touted the state’s relationship with Canada, even as President Donald Trump targets the longstanding trading partner and ally with tariffs and other threats.

February 21, 2025

Casper is attempting to address the looming budgetary disaster:

My fellow Casperites,

It’s an old adage, but it’s true — all politics is local. At best, the Wyoming legislature seems to have forgotten that; at worst, they simply don’t care. And frankly, that’s what makes writing this letter so frustrating, yet urgent.

I am informing you of a drastic change to our standard of living should the legislature pass SF0069 as is currently proposed, their 50% property tax cut.

The City of Casper is tasked with providing you the essential services necessary for living: clean drinking water, responsible garbage collection, treating wastewater, maintaining functional infrastructure, and responsive police, fire, and emergency services. Beyond that, the City works to increase your quality of life and drive our economic development through well-maintained parks, recreation facilities and programming for adults and our kids, restoring our river, and fostering a vibrant arts and cultural scene.

These essential services, economic drivers, and quality of life amenities are all on the chopping block for partial or complete defunding should SF0069 pass. If the legislature follows through, their actions may fundamentally change our way of life in Casper.

The City of Casper would see an immediate direct cut of $2 million to our budget and a yet-to-be-determined number of indirect cuts from the loss of revenue to partnerships the City holds with special tax districts, Natrona County, and the Senior Citizen Service District.

The City Council has a statutory obligation to create and pass balanced budgets. In times of economic crisis, we roll up our sleeves and do the hard work necessary to fulfill our obligation in a transparent, responsible manner that maintains a high standard of living while “living within our means.” This is not such a time. As Councilor Pollock stated over the weekend, this is a legislature-engineered crisis with little regard for the consequences and impacts residents will feel.

With this loss of revenue, the City Council will have to make the hard decisions of what to cut: implement a hiring freeze for police, fire, and emergency services professionals? Close our public parks? End after-school youth programming? Stop plowing roads after snowstorms? Stand by as our sewer and water lines fail? Reduce weekly garbage collection services? Is it really worth losing all of this for $70 a month in tax relief for the average household?

These are all very real considerations and decisions the Council will have to make that impact you, your family, and our broader Casper community. But when local leaders speak out, we are reprimanded by members of the legislature who do not want us to speak up on the harmful impacts their manufactured budget crisis is creating.

As your Mayor, I assure you that we haven’t forgotten that all politics is local. That’s why we’re going to continue to speak out, fight for you, fight for the quality of life you have come to expect here in Casper, and will do so in a transparent, responsive manner. And if you’re feeling as passionate about this as I am, please speak out and have your voice heard.

Thank you,

Mayor Ray Pacheco

Mayor Pacheco released a video of himself reading the letter.  Early Facebook comments met with ignorant derision. 

Fifteen bills have passed the legislature and are awaiting action by the Governor.  They are:

Here are the first 15 bills that were passed as of 5:45 p.m. Tuesday night.

House Bill 45.  This  removes otters as a state protected species in Wyoming and allows Wyoming Game and Fish to manage them.

52-8 vote in the House and 22-9 in the Senate.

I think I would have voted no.

House Bill 75.  This dimly reduced the coal severance tax rate from 6.5% to 6% for surface coal production, resulting in a $7.6M reduction in state income.

Proponents naively believe that the tax reduction will help the coal industry.

The bill passed 57-4 in the House and 23-8 vote in the Senate.

I'd have voted no.

House Bill 82.   This requires health insurance carriers to follow specific guidelines regarding credentialing and specifies that carriers shall not be required to violate or fail to meet requirements of a nationally recognized accrediting entity. 

I don't really grasp exactly what this does.

House Bill 25.  This requires the driver of a vehicle involved in an accident that makes their vehicle inoperable to report the accident to law enforcement.

I'd have voted m'eh.

House Bill 4.  This increases the annual registration fees for resident snowmobiles and nonresident annual snowmobile user fees and creates a permanent registration for antique snowmobiles.

I guess I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 92 This requires the Wyoming Livestock Board to initiate memorandums of understanding regarding the identification of livestock delivered to other states. 

I'd have voted yes, but its interesting that this bill which was overwhelmingly supported is in the "more government" category.

House Bill 30 This changes the expiration and renewal date for driver’s licenses for people younger than 21

I'd have voted yes, as did every member of the legislature.

House Bill 27  This changes the way disabled parking windshield placards are written in Wyoming.

I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 23 This repeals the requirements to physically surrender a driver's license in Wyoming. It passed 60-0 in the House and 29-2 in the Senate.

House Bill 54 This authorizes the assignment of cases and proceedings from circuit courts and district courts to chancery court judges. It passed on a 58-1 vote in the House and 60-0 in the Senate.

Hmmm. . . I'm not sure.

House Bill 73 This states that landowners who allow rock climbers onto their property won’t be liable if they’re hurt by adding the words “rock climbing” to the activities covered under the Recreation Safety Act.

I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 61 This bill provides that a state land lease applicant who is the holder of an expiring lease and has paid in full for their lease, and is not in current violation of a lease, shall have preferred right to renew their lease. 

I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 41 This bill clarifies that both coal mines and non-coal mine operations may deposit irrevocable letters of credit issued by a bank in lieu of a bond to the Wyoming Department of Quality. 

I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 22 This bill provides that local homeland security planners shall require coordination with each certified water and wastewater operator in order to provide emergency and public safety services for homeland security. 

I'd have voted yes.

House Bill 14 This bill establishes a prioritized list of cease and transfer projects for municipal solid waste facilities.

Of note, none of these, other than perhaps the otter bill, is controversial in any fashion.

February 22, 2022

Things advancing:

BillCatch TitleSponsorLast ActionLast Action Date
 
HB0005Fishing outfitters and guides-registration of fishing boats.TravelS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0033Vehicle sales and use tax distribution-highway fund.TransportationS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0039Property tax refund program-revisions.RevenueS 2nd Reading:Passed02/19/2025
HB0046Homeschool freedom act.StrockS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0064Chemical abortions-ultrasound requirement.NeimanS 2nd Reading:Passed02/20/2025
HB0072Protecting women's privacy in public spaces act.LawleyS COW:Passed 16-14-1-0-002/21/2025
HB0097Property conveyances near critical infrastructure.AppropriationsS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0116Driver's licenses-unauthorized alien restrictions.OttmanS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0181Funeral contracts-investment and bonding requirements.Larsen, LS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0226License plate-search and rescue council.Campbell, KS 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
HB0242Manufacturers and dealers of new trailers-changes.TarverS COW:Passed02/21/2025
HB0289Certificate of need repeal-3.GeringerS COW:Passed02/21/2025
HB0316School finance-model recalibration-2.Mgt CouncilS COW:Passed02/19/2025
SF0004State park peace officers-definition and scope of authority.TravelH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0007Protection order amendments.JudiciaryH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0008Protection orders-effective during appeal or review.JudiciaryH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0039Automatic transfer of automobile title upon death.OlsenH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0043Temporary water use agreements amendments.AgricultureH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0061Pollution control property tax exemption-applicability.CaseH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0072Summer vacation preservation act.BrennanH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0075Coroner investigations-disposition of decedent's property.CaseH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0079District courts-change of venue.CragoH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0082Omnibus water bill-planning.WaterH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0098School board trustees-party affiliation.OlsenH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0110Inclusion of crossing guards for governmental claims act.BrennanH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0114Missing persons-reporting requirement.LandenH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0119Expedited professional licensure for military members.BonerH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0127Administrative rules-legislative review.BonerH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0130Emergency assistance immunity-mental health services.RothfussH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0137School finance-cash reserves.DockstaderH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0143Public monies-deposits in credit unions.NethercottH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0151Monthly ad valorem tax distribution-amendments.JonesH 2nd Reading:Passed02/21/2025
SF0179Sage grouse compensatory mitigation-amendments.BarlowH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0181Eminent domain-energy collection systems-2.CragoH COW:Passed02/21/2025
SF0195Small business emergency bridge loan program.BitemanH COW:Passed02/21/2025

Outright failed:

BillCatch TitleSponsorLast ActionLast Action Date
 
HB0010Limited mining operations-amendments.MineralsH COW:Failed 17-39-5-0-101/28/2025
HB0050Disclosure of sensitive information-law enforcement.JudiciaryH COW:Failed 21-36-5-0-001/21/2025
HB0051Municipal courts-maximum penalties.JudiciaryH COW:Failed 21-38-3-0-001/22/2025
HB0091Eminent domain energy collector systems amendments.AgricultureH 3rd Reading:Failed 27-33-2-0-001/21/2025
HB0093Protect Wyoming's Lands Act.AgricultureS COW:Failed 11-20-0-0-002/14/2025
HB0111Hit and run-responsibility and penalties.Smith, SS01 - Judiciary:Do Pass Failed 1-4-0-0-002/19/2025
HB0168Cultivated meat-prohibition.EklundS 3rd Reading:Failed 12-19-0-0-002/20/2025
HB0186Bear coupons-game and fish.WharffH COW:Failed 26-32-4-0-002/04/2025
HB0189Harmful communication-minors.LienS COW:Failed 4-26-1-0-002/21/2025
HB0205Wyoming state fair department.StrockH 3rd Reading:Failed 13-46-3-0-002/06/2025
HB0221Bighorn and domestic sheep relocation-effective date repeal.OttmanS COW:Failed 11-19-1-0-002/21/2025
HB0234Second Amendment Financial Privacy Act amendments.AllemandS 3rd Reading:Failed 14-17-0-0-002/21/2025
HB0304State lands-hunting and fishing on cultivated cropland.EklundH COW:Failed 10-50-2-0-002/10/2025
HB0320Taxation and Revenue Task Force 2028.StorerH 3rd Reading:Failed 25-36-1-0-002/11/2025
HB0341Summer nutrition assistance for children.Larsen, LH COW:Failed 25-34-3-0-002/10/2025
SF0003Mule and whitetail deer-separate hunting seasons.TravelS 3rd Reading:Failed 12-19-0-0-001/27/2025
SF0014Wyoming imagination library program.EducationS COW:Failed 6-23-2-0-001/21/2025
SF0018Enhanced oil recovery-severance tax exemption.MineralsS COW:Failed 9-22-0-0-001/27/2025
SF0021Ban on cell phone use in schools.SchulerS COW:Failed 7-21-3-0-001/21/2025
SF0029Firearm hold agreement-limited liability.TransportationS COW:Failed 2-26-3-0-001/21/2025
SF0031Boards and commissions veteran ex officio members.TransportationS COW:Failed 11-17-3-0-001/21/2025
SF0041Federal acts-legal actions authorized.AgricultureS 3rd Reading:Failed 15-13-2-0-101/28/2025
SF0067Long-term homeowner tax exemption-revisions.RevenueS COW:Failed 13-15-1-0-201/28/2025
SF0068Government owned lands.RevenueS COW:Failed 11-16-3-0-102/04/2025
SF0085Constitutional enforcement of localities.IdeS COW:Failed 6-23-2-0-002/04/2025
SF0111Net metering revisions.CaseS 3rd Reading:Failed 10-17-4-0-002/05/2025
SF0123School finance-competitive grants for crossing guards.BrennanS COW:Failed 10-20-1-0-002/10/2025
SF0124Illegal immigration-identify, report, detain and deport.SteinmetzS COW:Failed 10-20-1-0-002/10/2025
SF0150For-profit trade schools-property tax exemption.McKeownS COW:Failed 12-17-2-0-002/07/2025
SF0178Fixing reading failure.ScottS 3rd Reading:Failed 6-24-1-0-002/12/2025
SF0185Governmental property-taxation and sale.CaseS COW:Failed 6-20-4-0-102/07/2025
SF0189Uniform commercial code-investment securities amendments.BitemanS 3rd Reading:Failed 10-20-1-0-002/12/2025
SJ0002Resolution demanding equal footing.IdeS 3rd Reading:S Bill Reconsideration Motion Failed by Roll Call 14-16-1-0-002/10/2025
SJ0006School capital construction-constitutional amendment.ScottS 3rd Reading:Failed 18-12-1-0-002/10/2025
SJ0010Legislative and executive authority-taxation and spending.Laursen, DS COW:Failed 9-21-1-0-002/10/2025

And, an example of dipshittery:

Bill allowing guns in schools, UW buildings heads to the governor

Last edition:

The 2025 Wyoming Legislative Session. Week 5. Starting with some fresh air.