Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

 

April 10, 2025

On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.

This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.

Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.

Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.

This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.

And so here we are.  

Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism.  The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends.  The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.

Highly relevant to Wyoming:

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

Cont:

Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed.  Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.

Cont:

After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.

Cont:

The Dow closed 1,000 points down.

Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.

The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.

April 11, 2025

China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.

April 13, 2025

The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.

April 14, 2025

The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.

Regarding the weekend shows:

A Disturbing Trifecta

On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:

GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS SEAFOOD INDUSTRY 

Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value

April 17, 2025

Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.

It’s Not Known If The 6-10 UW Students Who Had Visas Revoked Are Still On Campus

April 19, 2025

Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.

President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

April 22, 2025

Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.

By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.

Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal

Few think administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain

 

Stocks End Sharply Lower. The Dow Is on Pace for Worst April Since 1932.

The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.

Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.

cont:

Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration.  It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.

cont: 

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.

The result would be stagflation.

April 23, 2025

After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.

Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.

Classic Trump cycle.  Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.

April 24, 2025

Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part.  He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.

Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.

Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.

April 29, 2025

Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.

D'uh.

Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.

Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular.  It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.

April 30, 2025

Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.

UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.

The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.

Related threads:

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, Clothing, Coal, Coffee, Petroleum, Taxes, The Madness of King Donald, The Tariff Recession, Trump Trade Wars

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

Labels: Autarky, Donald Trump, Economics, Errare humanum est perseverare diabolicum, Sic transit Gloria Mundi, Taxes, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico

A Disturbing Trifecta

The weekend shows were unsettling, to say the least.

Economic chaos was referenced in all three shows.

On This Week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who sounds like a dimwit in spite of a fairly impressive set of credentials, indicated that the tariff exception for electronics is only temporary until the government comes out with targeted tariffs on them of some sort.

On Meet The Press, investor and author Ray Dalio pretty much predicated a depression, and perhaps a global war of some sort.

On Face the Nation Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, clinically said the economy is going in the toilet.

Also on Face the Nation, recently resigned Dr. Peter Marks, the creator of Operation Warp Speed, went after Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on his measles response with both barrels, and reloaded four or five times.  He also related Kennedy's promise to figure out the cause of autism by fall as absurd.

Nifty.

 

Unilateral free trade

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

The reciprocal tariff formula.

Sigh.

April 4, 2025.

What the administration actually did is took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.  Think it's just me?  Here's what the BBC had to say about it:

But if you unpick the formula above it boils down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

Which is a totally wacked way to do this.

This actually has nothing to do with tariff rates imposed by other countries, but trade deficits.  

It's an autarky baloney sandwich.

By the way, on the great businessman, the seven largest Dow Jones drops in American history:

1. Trump, 3/16/20  -2,997.10

2. Trump, 3/12/20  -2,352.60

3. Trump, 3/9/20  -2,013.76

4. Trump, 6/11/20  -1,861.82

5. Trump, 4/3/25  -1,679.39

6. Trump, 3/11/20  -1,464.94

7. Trump, 03/18/20  -1,338.46

What all of this is supposed to do is to reverse, and in a screaming hurry, the relocation of manufacturing to overseas. For example, 70% of footwear in the US is imported (only really good footwear is made in the U.S.).  Your Levis are probably made in Vietnam.  The problem is, reversing a trend that started in the late 1940s overnight can't be done, if at all, without massive economic disruption.

Added to that, some of what will be hit violates what Adam Smith, who didn't approve of tariffs at all, long noted, which is that if you make great whiskey in Scotland, and they  make great wine in France, you don't fix things by trying to make wine in Scotland.  

April 4, 2025

Never before has a president so recklessly and intentionally driven our economy off a cliff.

Theodore Roosevelt V. 

China has retaliated with 35% reciprocal tariffs.

The Dow opened today and dropped 1,100 points.

Brent Crude is $64.87, heading right into the unproducible price range for Wyoming.

JP Morgan says there's a 60% chance of a recession this year.

Trump was supposed to meet the families of four US soldiers who died in Lithuania in a training exercise as their coffins returned.

He canceled, dined with Saudi golf execs and sponsors for a golf tournament at one of his resorts.

What an asshole.

The current cover of The New Yorker has an illustration of the entire Trump cabinet riding an Atomic Bomb, as in the last scene of Dr. Strangelove, as they take selfies of themselves.

So, for Wyomingites, including those who moved in and backed the Freedom Caucus (and the natives who naively did), retirement accounts are being flushed down the toilet and there won't even be jobs at Walmart, and oil is tanking so soon rigs will be stacked.  Those on fixed pensions, like those who worked for school districts and the government, will be no better off, as the pension will become worth less every day.

And for more, on how this insanity will play out:

It's tariff time. How will tariffs impact you?

cont:

The view from the organization named after the man who developed the free trade theory:

Tariffs and the European Union

cont:

It should be noted that the US added 228,000 jobs in March.

cont:

"They Played It Wrong, Panicked"

Trump, on truth social, about China kicking the US in the nuts.

In reality, we played it wrong, and soon we're going to be down on the sidewalk getting kicked in the gut.

Did anyone seriously vote for this? 

cont:

The Dow, so far, today: −1,662.02 (4.10%).

So, for two days, it's down nearly 3,000.

Rig counts are down by two this week, down by 30 from this time last year.

cont:

Somebody I know looking to buy a used car found the price jumped $4,000 this week due to an increased demand for used cars.

cont:

Now down 2,000 points.

cont:

Closed 2,200 points down today.

Over 3,800 points down over two days.

That's sure making America Great Again.

cont:

Things actually appear to be changing in the GOP.  Ted Cruz, for one, suddenly got intestinal fortitude:

If we are in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods, that is a TERRIBLE SCENARIO!”

We have seen when one country jacks up tariffs, it can provoke a trade war, where each country accelerates tariffs, and the results would do a couple of things.  It would DESTROY JOBS here at home and do real damage to the economy…. This is going to have a POWERFUL UPWARD IMPACT ON INFLATION.

Cruz wouldn't be saying that if he didn't figure things are about to turn on Trump.

April 5, 2025

The Trump tax bill which extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and which cuts spending passed early this morning.

This is frankly disastrous as it perpetuates an ongoing deficit crisis.

West Texas crude is $62.00/bbl.

Cont:

Stellantis is laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities.  It directly cited the Trump Tariffs.  

Stellantis N.V. is a multinational automotive manufacturing company that manufactures and sells Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram Trucks, and Vauxhall, reflecting the international nature of the automobile industry.

April 6, 2025

Trump's Commerce Secretary said the quiet part out loud yesterday.  The hope is that if tariffs cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US, they'll return to AI robotic factories.

So the idea is to take jobs from Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc., and give them to robots. . . not living Americans.  There's a real element of evil in that.

April 7, 2025

Stock markets are plunging around the globe.  The Dow Jones opened 1,000 points lower.

On the weekend shows, the talking points were that Trump is going to negotiate, which last week he indicated he wouldn't, and that the tariffs cause a "one time price adjustment".

cont:

Looks like the Dow will close over 500 down.

April 8, 2025.

From the Tribune:

Trade wars threaten craft brewers

It has to deal with steel and aluminum prices.

cont:

Even Elon Must is criticizing the tariffs, calling Peter Navarro "dumber than a sack of bricks".

Later tonight, a 104% tariff will be imposed on China.

cont:

Canadian produced Dodge, Quebec advertisement.  Je me souviens.

And now Canada is imposing a 25% automobile tax on the US starting at midnight.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

And the Dow closed down 300 points.

cont:

Microsoft has canceled plans to build three new data centers worth in Ohio.

April 9, 2025

And good morning Wyoming. . . 

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

cont:

Somebody obviously got to Trump and gave him the dope slap.  San Francisco Chronicle:

Alert: Stocks surge after President Trump announces a 90-day pause on tariffs except for China, sending the Dow up 1,800 points

That's good news, but clearly Trump is not a stable genius.

cont:

The 10% tariff, which is still inflationary, remains.  

Trump's attributing this to 75 nations contacting the US on this, which is pretty much a "dog ate my lunch" excuse.  Somebody got to Trump and took away his McKinley cartoon bio and woke him up a bit.

The degree to which the US has lost credibility for being governed by an obviously dim character, of course, can't be immediately repaired. 

cont:

So, US 10 & 30 year bonds were being dumped by overseas holders.  That had to be stopped.

So the tariffs were stopped, or at least that's highly likely what occurred.

Stupid.   We shouldn't have been in that position.

Related Threads

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Donald Trump Really Is a Lot Dumber Than We Thought. Like, a Lot!

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The dictatorial control edition

Labels: Derek Guy, Economics, Government, Jonah Goldberg, Petroleum, Stock Market, Taxes, technology, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Unions, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

"Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry and Amending Executive Order 14241" vs Reality.

This isn't going to do anything, but it throws a bone to Western populist voters who seriously believe that there's some sort of conspiracy against coal.

It's also captioned in Trump-Moron-O-Speech, but that's another matter.

Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry and Amending Executive Order 14241

Executive Orders

April 8, 2025

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:

Section 1. Purpose. In order to secure America’s economic prosperity and national security, lower the cost of living, and provide for increases in electrical demand from emerging technologies, we must increase domestic energy production, including coal. Coal is abundant and cost effective, and can be used in any weather condition. Moreover, the industry has historically employed hundreds of thousands of Americans. America’s coal resources are vast, with a current estimated value in the trillions of dollars, and are more than capable of substantially contributing to American energy independence with excess to export to support allies and our economic competitiveness. Our Nation’s beautiful clean coal resources will be critical to meeting the rise in electricity demand due to the resurgence of domestic manufacturing and the construction of artificial intelligence data processing centers. We must encourage and support our Nation’s coal industry to increase our energy supply, lower electricity costs, stabilize our grid, create high-paying jobs, support burgeoning industries, and assist our allies.

Sec. 2. Policy. It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security. It is a national priority to support the domestic coal industry by removing Federal regulatory barriers that undermine coal production, encouraging the utilization of coal to meet growing domestic energy demands, increasing American coal exports, and ensuring that Federal policy does not discriminate against coal production or coal-fired electricity generation.

Sec. 3. Strengthening Our National Energy Security. The Chair of the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) shall designate coal as a “mineral” as defined in section 2 of Executive Order 14241 of March 20, 2025 (Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production), thereby entitling coal to all the benefits of a “mineral” under that order. Further, Executive Order 14241 is hereby amended by deleting the reference to “4332(d)(1)(B)” in section 6(d) of that order and replacing it with a reference to “4532(d)(1)(B)”.

Sec. 4. Assessing Coal Resources and Accessibility on Federal Lands. (a) Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Energy shall submit a consolidated report to the President through the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy that identifies coal resources and reserves on Federal lands, assesses impediments to mining such coal resources, and proposes policies to address such impediments and ultimately enable the mining of such coal resources by either private or public actors.

(b) The Secretary of Energy shall include in the report described in subsection (a) of this section an analysis of the impact that the availability of the coal resources identified could have on electricity costs and grid reliability.

Sec. 5. Lifting Barriers to Coal Mining on Federal Lands. (a) The Secretary of the Interior and the Secretary of Agriculture shall prioritize coal leasing and related activities, consistent with applicable law, as the primary land use for the public lands with coal resources identified in the report described in section 4(a) of this order and expedite coal leasing in these areas, including by utilizing such emergency authorities as are available to them and identifying opportunities to provide for expedited environmental reviews, consistent with applicable law.

(b) The Secretary of the Interior, pursuant to the authorities in the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920, as amended and supplemented (30 U.S.C. 181 et seq.), the Mineral Leasing Act for Acquired Lands of 1947, as amended (30 U.S.C. 351-359), and the Multiple Mineral Development Act of 1954 (30 U.S.C. 521-531 et seq.), shall acknowledge the end of the Jewell Moratorium by ordering the publication of a notice in the Federal Register terminating the “Environmental Impact Statement Analyzing the Potential Environmental Effects from Maintaining Secretary Jewell’s Coal Leasing Moratorium”, and process royalty rate reduction applications from Federal coal lessees in as expeditious a manner as permitted by applicable law.

Sec. 6. Supporting American Coal as an Energy Source. (a) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Secretary of Transportation, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Energy, the Secretary of Labor, and the Secretary of the Treasury shall identify any guidance, regulations, programs, and policies within their respective executive department or agency that seek to transition the Nation away from coal production and electricity generation.

(b) Within 60 days of the date of this order, the heads of all relevant executive departments and agencies (agencies) shall consider revising or rescinding Federal actions identified in subsection (a) of this section consistent with applicable law.

(c) Agencies that are empowered to make loans, loan guarantees, grants, equity investments, or to conclude offtake agreements, both domestically and abroad, shall, to the extent permitted by law, take steps to rescind any policies or regulations seeking to or that actually discourage investment in coal production and coal-fired electricity generation, such as the 2021 U.S. Treasury Fossil Fuel Energy Guidance for Multilateral Development Banks rescinded by the Department of the Treasury and similar policies or regulations.

(d) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Energy, the Chief Executive Officer of the International Development Finance Corporation, the President of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, and the heads of all other agencies that have discretionary programs that provide, facilitate, or advocate for financing of energy projects shall review their charters, regulations, guidance, policies, international agreements, analytical models and internal bureaucratic processes to ensure that such materials do not discourage the agency from financing coal mining projects and electricity generation projects. Consistent with law, and subject to the applicable agency head’s discretion, where appropriate, any identified preferences against coal use shall immediately be eliminated except as explicitly provided for in statute.

Sec. 7. Supporting American Coal Exports. The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Energy, the United States Trade Representative, the Assistant to the President for National Security, and the heads of other relevant agencies, shall take all necessary and appropriate actions to promote and identify export opportunities for coal and coal technologies and facilitate international offtake agreements for United States coal.

Sec. 8. Expanding Use of Categorical Exclusions for Coal Under the National Environmental Policy Act. Within 30 days of the date of this order, each agency shall identify to the Council on Environmental Quality any existing and potential categorical exclusions pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act, increased reliance on and adoption of which by other agencies pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 4336c could further the production and export of coal.

Sec. 9. Steel Dominance. (a) The Secretary of Energy, pursuant to the authority under the Energy Act of 2020 (the “Act”), shall determine whether coal used in the production of steel meets the definition of a “critical material” under the Act and, if so, shall take steps to place it on the Department of Energy Critical Materials List.

(b) The Secretary of the Interior, pursuant to the authority under the Act, shall determine whether metallurgical coal used in the production of steel meets the criteria to be designated as a “critical mineral” under the Act and, if so, shall take steps to place coal on the Department of the Interior Critical Minerals List.

Sec. 10. Powering Artificial Intelligence Data Centers. (a) For the purposes of this order, “artificial intelligence” or “AI” has the meaning set forth in 15 U.S.C. 9401(3).

(b) Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Commerce, and the Secretary of Energy shall identify regions where coal-powered infrastructure is available and suitable for supporting AI data centers; assess the market, legal, and technological potential for expanding coal-based infrastructure to power data centers to meet the electricity needs of AI and high-performance computing operations; and submit a consolidated summary report with their findings and proposals to the Chair of the NEDC, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto.

Sec. 11. Acceleration of Coal Technology. (a) The Secretary of Energy shall take all necessary actions, consistent with applicable law, to accelerate the development, deployment, and commercialization of coal technologies including, but not limited to, utilizing all available funding mechanisms to support the expansion of coal technology, including technologies that utilize coal and coal byproducts such as building materials, battery materials, carbon fiber, synthetic graphite, and printing materials, as well as updating coal feedstock for power generation and steelmaking.

(b) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Energy shall submit a detailed action plan to the President through the Chair of the NEDC outlining the funding mechanisms, programs, and policy actions taken to accelerate coal technology deployment.

Sec. 12. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP

I don't usually repost an entire thread, but it's warranted here.  What's really going on with coal:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry

  
Me, third from right, when I thought I had a career in geology, and probably in coal.

There is a lot of speculation about a revival in the future of coal around here.  I'm skeptical.  This doesn't mean that I come from the outside where coal is simply a freakish oddity.  No, I'm pretty familiar with coal. . . personally.  At one time, coal, I thought, would fuel my career. When other students in the UW geology department of the early 1980s were planning on becoming petroleum geologist, I focused on coal, which wasn't suffering. . . at first, the way oil then was.  Of course, it came to, and I went from the geology department into under employment so my plan failed.

The irony of that is that my choice on coal as a focus was intentional.  I could see the handwriting on the wall in regards to employment in the oil industry.  Others seemingly couldn't, or having entered onto that set of railroad tracks they just couldn't get off.  Coal, on the other hand, was doing fine in the early 1980s. . . at first.  There were coal mines operating at that time which aren't now.  Indeed, there was an underground coal mine in Hanna, a continuation of a situation that had existed well into the early 20th Century.

Well, that didn't work out the way I'd panned and by 1985, when I approached graduation from the University of Wyoming, after five years of effort (five was typical for geologist, that was five full semesters) I graduated into being an . . . .artilleryman.

Yup.  Artillery. The rescuer of my economic fortunes.

I'd joined the National Guard right out of high school and was still in it in 1985 when I graduated.  The Guard basically employed me on a semi full time basis for a year while I tired to find a job.  I couldn't, of course, so I ended up going back to school to obtain a JD.  Indeed, relating back to the Guard, I've felt guilty ever since as I let my enlistment expire in 1986 just before I went back to law school as I believed all the propaganda I'd heard about how hard law school is.  Hah!  It's nothing compared to obtaining a bachelors in geology. 

  

My main employer, right after receiving my bachelor's degree.

Anyhow, in that period of time between my general geology studies at Casper College (during which I really picked up a love of geomorphogy) and my graduation, the first time, at the University of Wyoming by which time I'd picked up a focus on coal, I learned a lot about coal.  At the same time I nearly obtained enough credits for a BA in history, which perhaps reflects a natural interest that reflects itself back here.

 So, perhaps in some ways, I'm uniquely suited to ponder the long decline of coal.   Or at least I have.

And indeed the path of coal, and its long slow decline, is highly relevant to where we find ourselves now.  Lots of people in the coal states believe that the election of Donald Trump is going to revive the fortunes of coal.  Here in Wyoming quite a few people are so acclimated to coal paying the bills that they can't imagine anything else.  Indeed, just this past weekend I was at a public event, wearing my shabby (truly) Carhartt coat and my Stormy Kromer cap, probably looking like a guy who had shoveled a lot of coal (and indeed I have shoveled a little) and was accosted by a person sitting under a banner proclaiming something about a "return" to liberty and the Constitution who started off on a speech about would I like to sign a petition in opposition to any kind of new taxes.  No, I won't sign that as I just don't see coal being able to pay the Wyoming freight in the future anymore.  Maybe some other mineral or minerals can, but coal isn't going to be able to the way it once did (and besides, I'd be unlikely to sign anyway as I tend to find that people are always opposed to new taxes but not bothered by demanding that the things taxes pay for are really good).

I think the path of coal, being familiar with it, might be best illustrated by a few rough dates and illustrations.  Its something that should be considered.

So let's start around 1900.  That was a world fueled by coal (and by wood).  Sure, kerosene was around, and it had replaced whale oil to a large extent.  I have around here a draft post, now months and months old, building on a George F. Will column that noted:

In many ways, the world of 1870 was more medieval than modern. Three necessities — food, clothing, shelter — absorbed almost all consumer spending. No household was wired for electricity. Flickering light came from candles and whale oil, manufacturing power from steam engines, water wheels and horses. Urban horses, alive and dead, complicated urban sanitation. Window screens were rare, so insects commuted to and fro between animal and human waste outdoors and the dinner table. A typical North Carolina housewife in the 1880s carried water into her home eight to 10 times daily, walking 148 miles a year to tote 36 tons of it. Few children were in school after age 12.

As I will note, I don't dispute the details that Will recites here, but I do doubt the "more medieval than modern assertion in a major way.  Indeed, some of these things argue, I think, the other way around and I think that misstates the nature of the Medieval world.

But noting what Will states about lights, we note what he said, and further note that it was accurate.

• "No household was wired for electricity"

This is quite true.

• "Flickering light came from candles and whale oil,"

Whale oil chandelier, photo from the Library of Congress.  Up until the Will entry, I'd never even considered there being such a thing as a whale oil chandelier.

And so, in many places it did.  But coal fueled a lot of other things.

But let's consider coal in 1900.

It fueled the ships.

 USS Ohio, approximately 1898, as the USS Maine, which sank in a coal explosion in 1898, is in the background.

It fueled the trains, the only significant interstate transportation that existed.

New Your central yard, about 1907.

It heated the homes, where wood did not.

And it fueled industry, particularly the steel industry.

Blat furnace, about 1905.

And then things began to change.

It really started with navies in some ways, although some might argue that it started with hydroelectric.  We'll start with navies.

Navies had been powered by sail up until the mid 19th Century but already by the time of the American Civil War that was changing.  The U.S. Navy may have had its grandest ships under sail during that war, but coal fired wheels were being introduced even then.   And the scary smoke belching squat "monitors"  that signaled the end of the age of sail were coal (and perhaps wood) burning beasts.  Slow, hardly seaworthy, but iron clad.  It was pretty clear by 1865 that the age of militarized wind was ending.

And indeed the Naval reformation that occurred after the American Civil War is incredibly stunning.  Everything about navies soon changed.  By the 1890s every major navy in the world was building ships that look odd to our eyes, but which still look familiar .  Big guns on big ships powered by coal replaced sailing vessels, and the general purpose yeoman sailor was replaced by the specialist.  At about this time, in fact, the U.S. Navy started to switching from a navy drawing its recruits mostly from port towns, and which was in fact an integrated navy, to one which was segregated which drew its recruits from the interior of the country.  A wood and sail navy required men who had grown up near, or even on ships, and who knew the ins and outs of sail. That was a multi ethnic, polyglot group of men who in some way resembled the men in every port town around the world more than they did the men in the interior of their own countries.  It's  no accident that the first Congressional Medal of Honor to go to a foreign born serviceman went to a sailor, in action during the American Civil War fighting a naval battle in. . . . .Japan.

The naval battle in Shimonoseki Straits where an English sailor serving on board the USS Wyoming won a Congressional Medal of Honor.  Note that these ships already featured coal fire steam, in addition to sail.

While there was a sail and steam age, i.e., an age that combined both, for navies it wouldn't last long. For commercial shipping it lasted longer, and indeed the age of sail itself lingered on until after World War Two, amazingly enough, in some usages.  But for big ships, coal fired boilers were the norm before the turn of the century.  Sail lingered, but only lingered.

And so we entered the coal fired world. The degree to which coal fired everything, almost, is stunning.  If we take the world of 1900 heavy long distance transportation of all types was coal fired.  Trains and ships, that is.  Local transportation was seeing the beginnings of the Petroleum Age, but only the beginnings.  Locally, it was very much a horse oriented world, and indeed the railroads themselves caused a massive boom in heavy hauler horses around the turn of the prior century which gave us the really big draft horses, rather than farms as we so often imagine.  Something had to hault hat weight from the railhead to the warehouse.

And heat was going the way of coal. Coal fired, well fires, heated homes all around the country everywhere.  Boilers for apartment buildings, furnaces in homes.  Wood remained, but it was coal that was the oncoming fuel.

A World War One vintage poster of the United States Fuel Administration.  This period poster nicely illustrates how coal fit in.  Homeowners were being urged to buy coal early in the year.  That coal wasn't delivered, in this poster, by a truck, but rather by a dump wagon drawn by heavy draft horses.  Given the light dress of the laborer and the depiction of foliage the poster must have been released during the summer.

It is, in short, impossible to overestimate the importance of coal around 1900.  It was called King Coal for a reason.

But things were beginning to slowly change.

For one thing, petroleum was creeping in.  Not in a massive way, but in a way that was clearly predictable.  George Will spoke of whale oil lamps, but by the second half of the 20th Century kerosene lanterns were very common and their advantages very obvious.  Following in their wake came gas lanterns and by necessity, piping for natural gas.  It wasn't long after that in which the first gas stoves were introduced. Already by the early 20th Century, therefore, there was gas lighting and gas stoves.  

And gasoline was already making its appearance in the internal combustion engine by 1900.

Very early internal combustion engine.

We've dealt with automobiles elsewhere, but we've become so acclimated to them that we rarely think of their history.  Automobiles were a 19th Century invention, albeit a very late 19th Century invention, not a 20th Century one.  That doesn't mean that they replaced the horse right away, that would hardly be true, but they do go back aways.  And they were not, and we should not pretend, that they were any sort of a threat to coal at first.  Not at all.  Cars, trucks and motorcycles were competition for the horse, not the train and certainly not the ship or even the barge.

Truck waiting in line with big long line of coal wagons, some time prior to World War One.

Which takes us back to ships.

And, more specifically, the Royal Navy.

For decades, indeed centuries, the world's biggest and best navy was the Royal Navy.  This does not mean, however, that there was ever a day in which some other navy wasn't contending with the Royal Navy for that position.  And given that, the British basically engaged in a naval arms race that lasted well over a century.  And that mean that it needed to always be on the alert for a technological advantage.

And coal had given one.  Steam meant that large steel ships were able to be constructed, fired by coal fueled boilers.  They had two significant disadvantages however.

Smoke and spontaneous ignition.

Let's talk about smoke first, the disadvantage that was always there.

Their smoke was visible all the way over the edge of the horizon.

This is something that people who are more familiar with ships of the World War Two era don't instantly recall about earlier steel ships, but coal fires smoke and hence coal fired boilers likewise smoke, or rather the coal fires smoke

 The Great White Fleet, and great clouds of black smoke, December 16, 1907.

Prior to the advent of air reconnaissance and radar the spotting of enemy fleets, or for that matter friendly forces, was done by the naked eye.  And it was a matter of absolutely vital concern.  In the vastness of the ocean ships at sea had always scoured the horizon for signs of enemy ships, and even clues that seem slight to landlubbers were picked up by trained sailors.  Sailors looked, in prior eras, for sails and masts on the horizon, with the assistance of spyglasses.  By the time of dreadnoughts, however, they were looking for the faintest hints of smoke, and coal fired boilers provided plenty of it.  Teams of sailors searched the horizon with massive binoculars looking for that wisp of smoke, which was often more than a wisp.

The next danger was rarer, but not so rare as to not be a serious problem.  Spontaneous combustion.

Coal has a well known propensity to self heat and to make it worse, the better the coal grade the bigger the problem.  Exposed to air and moisture coal begins to engage in an exothermic reaction and can relatively easily self heat to the point where it ignites.  Moreover, as it self heats and heads towards ignition it drives off highly flammable hydrocarbon gases. Indeed, heating coal intentionally in a controlled environment is a means of producing those gases and has sometimes been thought of as a method of producing them, although its never proven to be an efficient means of doing so.

Coal is so prone to spontaneous combustion that coal self ignition is a natural phenomenon.  It simply happens where coal gets exposed to sufficient oxygen and moisture. Anyone who has ever spent any time in an open pit coal mine has seen coal simply burning on its own, as I have.

There are ways to combat this, of course, but the problem is uniquely acute for ships.  Ships must store coal in large bunkers and must taken on a lot of coal at certain points.  Ships are wet by their very nature. So any coal burning ship has, at some point, a lot of coal with just enough oxygen and moisture to create a problem.

This proved to be a real problem for ships and of course there were extreme catastrophic occurrences, the most famous of which is the explosion of the USS Maine.  The Maine is an extreme example of what could occur, but any coal burning ship could experience what the Maine did.  Basically, in the case of the USS Maine, the coal self ignited and the coal bunkers had sufficient liberated gas to create a massive explosion.  Not quite as dangerous, but still a huge problem, a simple self ignition of the coal without an explosion was a disaster, quite obviously, of the first rate requiring sailors to put the coal fire out under extreme danger.

Coal's detriments on ships would have had to be accepted, and indeed they were, but for the existence of alternatives.  Indeed, coal survived as a naval fuel for an appreciably longer time than a person might actually suppose, so impressive were its advantages in general.  Measures were taken in ship design to try to combat the dangers, such as having the coal bunkers placed near outside ship's hulls such that the coolness of the water would translate to them, and placing sailors bunks along the bunker's walls so that the sailors could tell if heat was building, but the dangers were real and known. Also known was that there was an alternative, oil.

By the turn of the century naval designers were aware that oil could be used to heat boilers just as coal could, and they began to study it in earnest.  Indeed, not only could it be used, but it had numerous advantages.

Unlike coal, petroleum oil for ships fuel did not result in much smoke.  It resulted in some, but not anything like that which coal put out.  The smoke from a single ship was much less visible and suffice it to say the smoke from a fleet of ships was greatly reduced.  Again, there was smoke, but not smoke like that put out by coal fired boilers.  Indeed, it was so much reduced that to a large degree detection of ships over the horizon by the naked eye was approaching becoming a think of the past.

And petroleum does not spontaneously self ignite.  A big vat of petroleum can sit around forever and never touch itself off.  This does not mean, of course, that its free from danger.  It isn't.  But some of the dangers it poses were already posed by coal, but in lesser degrees.  Petroleum burns more freely than coal by quite some measure and once it ignites putting it out is extremely difficult.  Sparks, other fires, etc., all pose increased dangers for petroleum over bunkered coal, but they existed to some degree for bunkered coal already.

And petroleum is more efficient and easier to use for ships.  Coal was basically stoked by hand, a dirty laborious job.  But petroleum wasn't.  Petroleum burning boilers were fueled by what amounts to a plumbing system involving a greater level of technical know how but less physical labor.  And oil had double the thermal content of coal making it a far more efficient fuel which required less refueling.  And on refueling, ships fueled with oil can be refueled at sea.  Ships fueled with coal cannot be.  Indeed, the maintenance of coaling stations in the remote parts of the globe was a critical factor in naval planning prior to the introduction of oil.

Which isn't to say that there weren't some unique problems associated with petroleum for ship.

For one thing, the fact that it spreads out when leaked and can more easily ignite meant that petroleum added a unique and added horror for a stricken ship.  Coal fired ships that were simply damaged and sinking were unlikely to cause a horrific sea top fire.  Petroleum ships are very likely to do that.  And the risk of a munitions caused explosion is increased with petroleum fueled ships.  A torpedo into a coal bunker might blow a coal fired ship to bits with an explosion or might just sink it.  With a petroleum fueled ship the risk of an explosion in such a situation is increased as is the risk that oil on the water will catch on fire or otherwise kill survivors.

A huge factor, however, was supply.

By odd coincidence all of the major naval powers, save for Japan, had more than adequate domestic supplies of coal.  Some had very good supplies of coal, such as the United States, United Kingdom and Imperial Germany, within their own borders.  Japan nearly did in that it obtained it from territories it controlled on the Asian mainland, although that did make its supply more tenuous. At any rate all of the big naval powers of the pre World War One world had coal supplies that htey controlled.  That's a big war fighting consideration.  Of the naval powers of that era, in contrast, only the United States and Imperial Russia had proven petroleum sources they controlled, and Imperial Russia had proven it self to be a second rate naval power during the Russo Japanese War.

Switching from coal to oil did not occur in the Royal Navy, or any navy, all at once. The decision was made somewhat haltingly and it was an expensive proposition to convert an entire navy to oil.  Britain started to convert prior to World War One but it didn't complete the process until after the war.  Still, its decision to start constructing capitol ships as oil burners in 1912 was a huge step for a nation that had the world's largest navy but which had no domestic oil production at all.  The United States followed suit almost immediately, with its first large ship to be converted to oil, the USS Cheyenne, undergoing that process in 1913.

 The USS Cheyenne in 1916 while it was a submarine tender.  The Cheyenne was the first oil burning ship in the U.S. Navy, following the lead that the British had started.

The USS Cheyenne was illustrative of something else that was going on, however, that being the increased presence of heavy internal combustion engines for various uses.  The USS Cheyenne had been built as a monitor, a type of proto battleship (and had been named the USS Wyoming originally) but after its conversion to oil it would become a submarine tender in a few short years.  Submarines of the era were light vessels and, like a lot of light naval fighting ships ,they were diesels.  Marine diesel engines were replacing boilers completely in lighter vessels and of course diesel fuel is a type of oil.

Diesels in that application show that industrial diesel engines had arrived.

By World War Two every navy in the world was an oil burning, not a coal burning, navy.  And it wasn't just navies.  Merchant ships had followed in the navies' wakes.  They were now oil burning too for the most part.  Coal at sea had died.

 Giant marine diesel engine circa 1920.

The demise of coal at sea did not equate, of course, with the universal demise of coal, and this is very important to keep in mind.  Entering into the period of history we've been discussing, roughly 1900 to 1920, coal may have lost its crown at sea, but it remained hugely important, arguably increasingly important, elsewhere.  It continued to be the fuel of heavy transportation, IE., for trains, it continued to heat homes and it fired an ever growing  number of power plants.  Indeed that last application can't be overstated as in this same period the Western world was electrifying.  So whatever position it may have lost on the waves it was likely more than making it up on land.

Still, the trend line had been set.

And it would next show itself with transportation.

At least according to one source written in 1912 coal fueled 9/10s of all locomotive engines at that time.  The other 1/10th would have been fired by wood or, yes,  oil.

This photograph will appear again in a series of photographs on the centennial of their having been first taken, in January 1917, but these teenagers are stealing coal from a rail yard.  They are probably taking it home for heating fuel or are selling it to Bostonian's who probably knew darned well these kids had taken it illegally from the yards.  For that matter, the railroad likely knew they were taking it too.  Even today, decades after the end of the use of coal for locomotives the paths of old railways can be found by the coal ash and coal that the trains dropped as they passed by.  I've walked the path of the old UP here and there down by Laramie doing that.

Wood, I should  note, may seem strange for a locomotive engine of that era, but it really shouldn't.  The goal of any fuel used in a locomotive engine is to produce steam and burning wood will produce steam.  Wood isn't an efficient fuel for that but it was a common one very early on.  Most locomotives were switched to coal after the Civil War, assuming that they were not burning it already, but where wood was locally plentiful and the engine had a local use, as for a small engine associated with a timbering operation, wood was kept in use.  

Indeed, as a total aside, during World War One some small German engines were made that burned trash.  Coal is a military fuel, Germany's (and Poland's) coal is very good, but as a military fuel conservation was the rule of the day.

At any rate, in 1912 less than 1/10th of all steam engines were burning oil, but what is telling there is that some were.  So here too a trend line had started.

In following years more and more steam engines became oil burning engines.  The reasons may not be entirely clear and are somewhat subtle, but some of them have been touched upon already above.  Oil is a more efficient fuel. Not so much so, however, that all locomotives were switched to it. The famous Union Pacific Big Boys, for example, were coal burning to the end.

Union Pacific Big Boy. These were coal burning their entire career.

What did the coal burning locomotive in, in the end, or more properly the steam engine in, was the diesel.

Diesel engine, 1985, outside of Laramie Wyoming.

Diesels Electric trains proved to be a better and more efficient option for train engines in the end. Contrary to what some may think these locomotives do not work like a diesel truck in that the engine does not power the drive wheels. Rather the diesels are big generators and the trains are essentially electric.   By the same token, in the proper settings, trains run from overhead electric lines.  Either way, this type of engine did in the steam engine.

Now then, looking at it, we see that coal went from the main fuel for ships and trains to a remnant fuel for both in a fifty year period. Hardly overnight, but clearly observable.  A person living in the era, if they cared to notice the trend, would have noticed.  Certainly, for example, if you lived in Rawlins Wyoming and looked out towards the Union Pacific Railroad yard over the course of an average life, if you'd lived in this period, you would have seen it gone from a busy smoky and sooty yard to one which had only the blue haze of diesel fuel above it.  And given that Rawlins is just seven miles from Sinclair, where a refinery is located, but also is surrounded by coal deposits and actually had its origin as a coaling location for the Union Pacific, the change would have been pretty obvious.  If you worked in the big underground mines in Hanna you might actually be slightly worried.

Which isn't to say that coal stopped being used.  Not hardly.  It was still heating homes all over, including in Wyoming, and it still was the fuel for power plants.

Let's turn to domestic coal use, as we haven't really touched on that much.

 

Lennox "Torrid Zone" coal furnace

Now, as we've seen above, coal was a basic heating fuel early in the 20th Century, having replaced wood in that role to a large extent.  During World War One Americans were urged to stock up on heating coal early, which meant filling their coal rooms full during the summer rather than waiting until winter.  Coal soot was such a prominent part of big city life that it came to be an accepted part, even contributing to the legendary concept that London was foggy.  It wasn't so much foggy as it was sooty.  This use of coal continued on for a very long time, and indeed here in Wyoming, which switched to gas early, people still ordered coal for heating fuel at least as late as the 1940s. 

 

Coal furnaces in the Library of Congress, 1900.  Shoot, and Washington D. C. isn't even all that cold.

But over time this changed to where heating oil, yes another use of petroleum oil and natural gas began to replace coal.  By the 1970s at least the price of heating oil became a major factor in annual fuel price concerns, but nobody really thought much of coal for the same purpose.  You can still buy a coal furnace today, if you are so inclined, but very few people do.  So yet another use of coal yielded to petroleum. And here, over time, petroleum has yielded to natural gas and electrical generation.

 Workman converting coal furnace to oil during World War Two.  Oil was more plentiful and efficient which sparked a government move to convert home heating to oil

Of course electrical generation also became a major use of coal in the early 20th Century, and it remains one today.  But, as has been seen from the trend line above, coal isn't the only option, and here too its a declining one.  While oil did make an appearance in the electrical generation field oil powered power plants are more or less a thing of the past and coal has outlasted them.  There are no oil fired power plants left in the United States and less than a dozen major ones left on Earth.  They're yielding, however, to natural gas, which powers quite a few power plants and which as been replacing coal.  And there are other means of generations electrical power, including wind power which now is cheaper than other forms of electrical generations in some regions of the United States.

 

Dave Johnston Power Plant, 2015.  U.S. Government photograph. 

Okay, so what's the point of this? Well, just this.  Coal has been on a long, slow, decline for over a century.  It isn't that it doesn't work, it's that it can't compete economically with other fuels that do the same thing in an increasing range of uses.  Only in terms of coking for steel production is it indispensable.  Indeed, perhaps signalling an international increase in manufacturing, high grade coal for coking has experienced a sharp recovery in recent months. That doesn't do anything locally, however, as our coal is Bituminous Coal, not Anthracite, and therefore can't be used for coking.

This isn't the view of some green fanatic world view.  It's dollars and cents, and coal producing regions, such as Wyoming, have to consider this. Without a way to address coal's defects, and soon, its diminished share of the fuel market will be considerably smaller irrespective of any environmental or regulatory concerns.  It's been a long trend running back over a century. 

Labels: boats and ships, British Navy, Coal, Daily Living, Industry, Lodging, Mid-Week at Work, Petroleum, Railroads, Transportation, U.S. Navy, United States Fuel Administration

Either blistering ignorance, or the worst kind of cynicism and hypocrisy, or both, are at work here.  Long term market trends such as this are really irreversible. This would be much like trying to mandate horse and carriage use after 1903.  You could, but that wouldn't have stopped the automobile.

Indeed, resource reversals really only occur in dire emergencies resulting in extreme shortages.  That's why the Germans and South Africans worked on converting coal to a liquid fuel.  It wasn't cheap, it was necessary.  Trump is creating an artificial crisis right now, but it's unlikely to result in a need for coal.  Natural gas is still there and his trade policies are likely to torpedo a recent effort to export liquified natural gas.  And more than that, the one thing his administration might actually accomplish in this area is a revival of nuclear, which is already going on anyhow. 

One further good, it might be noted, might come of this.  Democratic administrations have been hostile to coal, although they've done little about it, due to its strong association with Global Warming.  That's given leeway in the coalfields to allow for it to be imagined that the century plus decline in coal is the government's fault, when its economic and technology. Trump's stroke of the pen isn't going to revive coal and believing in the myth will be impossible, except for those who simply willfully choose to deny all reality to their detriment.