Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 138th Edition: Congress is having hearings on UFOs.

It's interesting that the overwhelming majority of the world's UFO siting's are from the US. 

Same for cyptids.  

It's almost like we; 1) got money, 2) got bored, 3) got stupid, and 4) elected Trump.  He'll probably result in all of those things getting beat out of us.

Everyone has always wondered what would happen if a society got super flush. Well, apparently we entertain wacky conspiracy theories, become fascinated with our reproductive organs, and listen to batshit crazy hucksters.

Now we know.

Last edition:

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 136th Edition.Wyoming Republicans, not realizing they're Democrats, are criticizing Democrats, who are moderate Republicans, crossing over.

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Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. Economics in the Dementia Ward.


May 1, 2026

We're constantly told that tariffs are good for everyone.  But then monarchs come and they're lifted.

He's lost his mind.

Cont:

May 3, 2026

Discount airline Spirit dissolves.

 It was a victim of high aviation fuel, something brought about by Donald Trump's illegal attack on Iran.


May 4, 2026


This has been in the news for awhile, but I haven't posted it yet.

Frankly, the impact of pipelines is mostly in their construction, to it's temporary.  At least for the state.  These pipelines tend to transport Canadian oil, so the impact is less than it might seem.

And the state has got to get over its addiction to petroleum.

Regarding petroleum, the U.S. is now exporting a record amount due to the war with Iran, which doesn't help U.S. citizens whatsoever, as it cause the price of the product to rise, and accelerates U.S. depletion of the resource.  Export of it, save for conditions in which the petroleum cannot be refined here, should be banned.

For that matter, as a resource that nobody contributed to putting in the ground, some thought should be given to nationalizing the resource in some fashion.

Some members of Congress are threatening to ban the import of Chinese electric vehicles as the GOP searches for ways to make a bad situation worse.

May 7, 2026

Headline:

Trade Court Rules Trump’s 10% Global Tariff Is Illegal

A panel of federal judges found that President Trump could not legally impose the tariff on most imports.

No surprise whatsoever.

Anyhow, now this money will have to be refunded too. And Mad King Donny still hasn't refunded the money owed from the last such ruling.

May 13, 2026

Inflation rose to 3.8% last month with the fastest rise in prices in three years, caused by an illegal war with Iran which the demented Mad King Donny has no idea how to end.

Mad King Donny has gone to China.  It'll be a disaster. The best possible result would be if he just gets lost over there, thinks the Chinese babes are cute, decides to marry one, and stays.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The Wharton Way.

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Thursday, May 9, 1901. Blue Thursday.

Blue Thursday saw massive panic in stock markets.

The first Parliament of Australia opened.

Lizzie van Zyl whose emaciated body would become the symbol of British concentration camp atrocities, died at age seven 

Last edition:

Tuesday, May 7, 1901. Gary Cooper born.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Friday, May 3, 1901. The Panic of 1901.

The Panic of 1901 started with a stock market crash, the first in U.S. history.

148 city blocks in Jacksonville, Florida were destroyed by fire.


Last edition:

Wednesday, April 24, 1901. First American League game as a major league.

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Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The Wharton Way.

 

 "The Wharton Way"

Our strategic plan guiding us towards greater influence, innovation, and engagement for the advancement of business, education, and society at large.

Wharton School of Business website.

Donald J. Trump, who fancies himself a Wile E. Coyote level genius, is a graduate of the Wharton School of Business.

It certainly doesn't show, or Wharton isn't all it has been cracked up to be.

Having gotten the United States into an illegal war as Bibi Netanyahu talked him into it, Donny appears to have been taken off guard that Iran could and would close the Straits of Hormuz, hit tankers, and hit oil and gas facilities throughout the Middle East.

Why wouldn't they?

Perhaps if Melania lets Barron go see his father over Spring Break, assuming they're not perusing travel brochures entitled "where we can go to live after Don dies where people won't know we're Trumps", and assuming that Barron isn't doing the right thing and enlisting in the United States Marine Corps, they can break out some hex and counter games and play Naval based Superpower v. Land based regional power" and see how that works out.

Anyhow, Donny Trump (did we mention that he fancies himself a Wile E. Coyote level genius?) has lifted sanctions on already loaded oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, which means that Iran now has a source of cash it didn't before the war started.

So, we didn't wipe out their nuclear capabilities in the Twelve Day War, their government hasn't fallen in this one, people have not risen up to toss out the Iranian government, the Straits of Hormuz are closed, we didn't stockpile oil before the war, the price of oil has skyrocketed, and now the Iranians can legally transport some oil

Assuming that Trump isn't secretly trying to destroy the American economy and benefit Iran (and Russia), it's hard to see the smarts in any of that.

March 23, 2026

Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous

Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war 

March 24, 2026

Petroleum is back up over $100/bbl, basically because King Donny is a liar.

March 26, 2026

And the war inflation hits packages:

U.S. Postal Service Announces Transportation-Related, Time-Limited Price Change

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Postal Service filed notice today with the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) regarding a time-limited price change to better align its costs of transportation with the market. This temporary price adjustment will provide needed flexibility for the Postal Service by helping to ensure that the actual costs of doing business are covered, as required by Congress.

While this price increase is a time-limited adjustment, it will provide a necessary bridge to a permanent mechanism to reflect market conditions in prices for competitive products that can support the Postal Service’s ability to achieve the universal service obligation in a more financially sustainable manner going forward.

The planned price change, which was approved by the Governors of the Postal Service on March 24, is an 8 percent increase that would affect base postage prices on the following retail and commercial domestic competitive products: Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Advantage, and Parcel Select. No other products or services would be affected, including First-Class Stamps. Pending favorable review by the PRC, the price change would go into effect at midnight Central Time on April 26 and would remain in place until midnight Central Time on Jan. 17, 2027. At that time, the Postal Service can determine if a different long-term approach is needed.

Transportation costs have been increasing, and our competitors have reacted with a number of surcharges. We have steadfastly avoided surcharges and this charge is less than one-third of what our competitors charge for fuel alone, so even with this change, the Postal Service continues to offer great value in shipping with some of the lowest rates in the industrialized world.

The time-limited price change is consistent with industry practices and will support the Postal Service’s ability to continue achieving its public service mission — providing a nationwide, integrated network for the delivery of mail and packages at least six days a week — in a cost-effective and financially sustainable manner over the long term, just as the U.S. Congress has intended.

The PRC will review the proposed price change before it is scheduled to take effect on April 26. Complete USPS price filings, with prices for all products, can be found on the PRC website’s Daily Listings section at prc.arkcase.com/portal/filings. Price tables are also available on the Postal Explorer website at pe.usps.com/PriceChange/Index.

# # #

March 27, 2026

More than 90% of new renewable power projects worldwide in 2024 were cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

Guess they aren't as woke as Chuck and demented Don would claim.

And this two years ago before the tin pot dictator decided to destroy the world's oil importation system.

March 30, 2026

West Texas is at $100/bbl this morning. Brent is at $115/bbl.

With the Houthis now in the war, there's a fairly good chance the Red Sea will be effectively closed, massively widening the war, and propelling the world into a King Donny causes severe recession.

March 31, 2026

Brent is at $114.88.  West Texas at $104.

The price of almost everything is rising.

This is your economy at war.  An undeclared war by a demented octogenarian.

April 6, 2026

Trump's Total War Budget

“More bombs, less of everything else” is a tough campaign platform.

West Texas is $110/bbl this morning.

April 7, 2026

All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth.

IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva.

April 14, 2026

We had in Wyoming record distributions of Meals on Wheels…So I’m worried.  I’ll admit it.

Cynthia Lummis.

April 15, 2026

Headlines in the CST:

Forbes: Trump’s wealth soars 60% since return

Trump administration will refund importers

Treasury chief confident on low core inflation

That last thing comes from Bessant so basically it's propaganda, as everything he says is.

April 18, 2026


The Rural Blog: Inflation surged in March due to Iran war and tariffs: War-related price pressures worsened inflation in March, which the Federal Reserve was already struggling to regulate, reports Colby Smith f...

High oil prices, explained by an expert

"It’s hard to know what level would make Americans start to really restrict their consumption."

April 19, 2026

Oh oh. . .

April 21, 2026

Presidential Determination Pursuant to

Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Natural Gas Transmission, Processing, Storage, and Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity

Presidential Memoranda

April 20, 2026

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY

SUBJECT:       Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Natural Gas Transmission, Processing, Storage, and Liquefied Natural Gas Capacity

On January 20, 2025, I issued Executive Order 14156 (Declaring a National Energy Emergency), under the National Emergencies Act.  That order found that hostile foreign actors have weaponized America’s reliance on foreign energy and used it to cause dramatic swings in international commodity markets, leaving the United States and its allies dangerously exposed.  It emphasized that America must develop its capacity to supply reliable, diversified, and affordable energy to international allies and partners to compete with hostile foreign powers, strengthen relations with allies and partners, and support international peace and security.

Consistent with that declaration, I find that ensuring sufficient natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity is critical to sustaining United States defense operations and ensuring allied energy security.  Inadequate pipelines, processing, storage, or natural gas and LNG export capacity would leave the United States and its partners dangerously exposed in times of crisis.

Therefore, by the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (the “Act”) (50 U.S.C. 4533), I hereby determine, pursuant to section 303(a)(5) of the Act, that:

(1)  natural gas and LNG capacity, including gathering and transmission pipelines, compression, processing plants, underground storage, LNG liquefaction, storage and marine load, export facilities, and critical distribution infrastructure, are industrial resources, materials, or critical technology items essential to the national defense;

(2)  without Presidential action under section 303 of the Act, United States industry cannot reasonably be expected to provide these capabilities for the needed industrial resource, material, or critical technology item in a timely manner due to financing constraints, long-lead equipment and construction schedules, permitting delays, and infrastructure bottlenecks; and

(3)  purchases, purchase commitments, financial support for the development of production capabilities, or other action pursuant to section 303 of the Act are the most cost-effective, expedient, and practical alternative methods for meeting this need.

I have declared a national emergency under Executive Order 14156, and I further determine that action to expand domestic natural gas transmission, processing, storage, and LNG capacity is necessary to avert an industrial resource or critical technology item shortfall that would severely impair national defense capability.  Therefore, pursuant to section 303(a)(7) of the Act, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act for the purpose of expanding such capability.

You are authorized and directed to implement this determination, including making necessary purchases, commitments, and financial instruments to enable these projects, and to publish this determination in the Federal Register.

DONALD J. TRUMP

April 27, 2026

I listed to all three weekend shows.  They were grim.

This Week made it clear we're headed into an economic crisis thanks to the damage to oil infrastructure.  It may take years to repair and prices are not going to decline very soon, if ever.

April 28, 2026

‘There’s a day of reckoning coming’: Energy experts expect another spike at the pump

April 29, 2026

The United Arab Emirates has left OPEC.

Farmers turn on Trump: “It’s gonna be the nail in the coffin.” -

 


Frankly, it speaks ill of me, but I have almost no sympathy for farmers who voted for Trump.

Unfortunately, it's not only the nail in their coffins, but in everyone's else's as well.

May 7, 2026

Headline:

Trade Court Rules Trump’s 10% Global Tariff Is Illegal

A panel of federal judges found that President Trump could not legally impose the tariff on most imports.

No surprise whatsoever.

Anyhow, now this money will have to be refunded too. And Mad King Donny still hasn't refunded the money owed from the last such ruling.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 2. The "War, what's it good for?" edition.

Thursday, April 16, 2026

A Fossil Fuel Free Future is Here.

This was obvious, but will remain unrecognized for quite some time, for the same reason that coal is almost dead, but people don't grasp it.


Average people's ability to really grasp an existential change in something is pretty poor as a rule.  It's not so much that people choose to live in the past as it is that they have no grasp that the past of their younger lives and of their parents lives, the latter of which a lot of people hold to in a sort of mythical way, evolves.  We see that a lot in the U.S. right now.

The entire imaginary economy of Donald Trump is one that's grounded in a mythical 1970s, when he was young and clubbing and men lusting after girls in their teens was basically okay, du e to the sexual revolution.  MAGA, for its part, imagines a mythical 1950s economy, not understanding why the economy of the 1950s was the way it was.  In both instances, and particularly in regard to the 1970s economy, things were not as rosy as imagined.

Coal has been dying ever since the Royal Navy went to oil for ships.  We've discussed that before here:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry

Coal is not coming back.  In fact, it's demise is accelerating.  Lot of the globe, including China, in spite of what a demented Donald Trump thinks, is racing towards renewables.  Trump can't really imagine it as he's 80 years old and in the 70s there weren't very many big windmills, although even then there was a push towards renewable power.

Indeed, that push was started by the Arab Oil Embargo and people have been working on the technology ever since.  Now renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels for power generation.  Only nuclear can compete.

Every since the 70s engineers have been working on electric vehicles as well. Their day has arrived.

And Donald Trump started a war that will accelerate the pace of this change, rapidly.  Trump might end up being recalled as the greenest President ever, accidentally.

The change just won't be a switch to clean electrical power, and that switch is rapidly coming and no amount of John Barrasso and Harriet Hageman calling for the mythical "clean coal" will stop it.  It's also going to be a switch away from the sort of vehicle based economy we have now.  People aren't going to stop owning cars, but already a younger generation really isn't all that enamored with them.  Self driving vehicles, as much as I hate the idea, are coming in. With them will come self driving semi tractors and more importantly, in my view, remotely driven electric trains.

There's no reason that railroads can't be controlled like giant model train layouts.  Model trains already provide the model for it.  We're not far from that day.

That day is coming now whether Donald Trump, Harriet Hageman, John Barrasso, or people with an emotional tie to fossil fuels like it or not.  Your livelihood depending on it won't matter either.

It's already happening.

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

We need to amend the Constitution, Part Two. The Budget.

1862 U.S. Dollar.

The United States Constitution actually lacks a budget provision.  What provisions it has provide the following:

  • Article I, Section 8 (Spending Clause): Grants Congress the power to lay and collect taxes, pay debts, and provide for the common defense and general welfare.
  • Article I, Section 7 (Revenue Bills): Dictates that all bills for raising revenue must originate in the House of Representatives.
  • Article I, Section 9 (Appropriations Clause): States "No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law," ensuring Congress, not the executive branch, controls spending.
We need a specific set of controls on the budget.

For decades Congress has spent more than it brings in through taxes. It's at the crisis level presently, with Congress busing the budget and adding to the deficit at a monumental level.

At one time, pundits use to ponder if national debt and deficit spending were bad things. They are, but no credible person doubts that the current levels will actually destroy the American economy in the near future.  Trump, listing to extreme pundits and having graduated from Wharton, which apparently is a preparatory preschool based on his level of lack of understanding of economics, believed that tariffs would fix this and everything.

Well, it hasn't, and it won't.

We are now at the point where we need a severe austerity budget, or a massive rise in taxes, or both.  We have no real choice.

Anyhow, on fixing the budgetary process, it can be fixed. The Constitution should be amended to require a balanced budget, with a provision to retire 10% of the national debt as part of it, annually, save in the instance of a Declaration of War, or a Declaration of National Emergency.

To put this plainly, this would require ever budget to be balanced and the national debt completely retired within a decade.

Of course, what if Congress ignored that.

The amendment would provide that if Congress failed to pass a balanced budget, but passed a budget by a set day, taxes of all types and government fees of all types would automatically proportionally rise to cover the budget.  Additionally, government payments, outside of payments for debts, medical obligations, and wages would cease.  Payments of all types to Congress would completely cease, including payments for their staff. 

Yes, that's harsh.  The harshness would be the club that would put the pressure on to keep it from occurring.

If no budget was passed, say by February 1 of each year, the last balanced budget would come back into effect (it was during the Clinton era), with the additional provision of 10% of the national debt being paid for.  If taxes had to go up to make that work, and the other provisions noted, they would.

Yes, this is severe, but the severity of it is what would cause Congress to actually take this seriously.  

We know what a Declaration of War is. What would the Declaration of an Emergency be?

Well, predicting an emergency is tough, but I'd require 3/4s of the Congress to declare it and it could only last for one year.  To renew it a second time would require 3/4s of the Congress and 3/4s of the state legislatures.

One final thing.  No government assets of any kind could be sold to balance the budget or help retire the debt.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 2. The "War, what's it good for?" edition.

 


February 28, 2025

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, uhh

War, huh, yeah

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing

Edwin Starr.  War, 1970.

Oil is at $67.29.

It'll go up over the next several days with the US and Israel ineffectually rocketing Iran, and Iran ineffectually rocketing the entire Arabian Peninsula in a war that's going to get much, much, worse.

War, what's it good for?  Well it's good for raising the prices of everything, that's for sure.

A local headline:

Company eyes Wyoming for massive crude oil pipeline

Pipelines create a lot of work while they're being built, although usually the pipeliners are from out of state.

March 3, 2026.

Oil is at $76.08.

Wyoming oil is oddly, still under $58.00/bbl.

March 4, 2026


Obviously everything is going great.


March 6, 2026

Brent Crude:  $90/bbl.

March 9, 2026
There is no precedent for this. The sky is the limit.
Neil Atkinson, former head of oil at the International Energy Agency.

Don't worry, the American Supreme Leader has declared that this is a very small price for you schmucks to pay.


I thought we'd already ended the Iranian nuclear threat?

Well, we did, but didn't, the Dear Leader declares.  So enjoy your higher price at the pump and remember, no Trumps will be harmed in the war, so it's all okay. That's the important thing.

Wyoming crude is at $75.00/bbl.

In spite of what his admirers seem to think, everything Trump touches, just turns to shit.

Cont:

Wild market today.  Oil went up to $119/bbl and has since fallen to $90/bbl, as there's indications the administration might do something.  Some financial analysts feel that petroleum may be reaching the "demand destruction" stage. 

Cont:

I've worried, and warned, about this:


As previously noted, I assume Iran has sleeper cells.  It's surprised me that they haven't activated them, but then, once you do, you probably only get to do it once.

Let's hope they aren't activating anything, or better yet, that they don't have any.

March 11, 2026

Headline in the CST:

Trump’s claim of ‘roaring’ US economy not backed by data 

 2026 has kicked off with job losses, rising gasoline prices

Sen. Roger Marshall on high gas prices: "Freedom is not free. Americans are gonna have to make some sacrifices."

Quite a statement in support of a war Americans didn't want launched by an oligarch who doesn't even drive.

Petroleum prices are a price leader, if they go up, given as all goods that are moved in this country are moved via a petroleum fueled thing, the price of everything goes up. So does the price of farming, so  the price of food goes up.

March 13, 2026

Trump Removes Sanctions on Russia to Help Oil Flow Amid Iran Conflict

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was “unfortunate” that the move could benefit Russia, but maintained that it was only for the short term.

The Trump administration seems to have no grasp on what it is doing at all.

March 14, 2026

It's not just oil. Here comes Hormuz inflation.

Garden supplies, birthday balloons and semiconductors could get hit by price inflation or shortages.

The gravity of this can't be overemphasized.  Crude oil is up 47%, so far.  Fuel prices are going to go up. The boneheads running the war hit a fuel loading island yesterday.  Fertilizer is going to go up, and food production down.  

It's clear Trump thought this war would be over in a few days, even though we know that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs warned against the war.  This is going to go on for months. Prices will continue to climb.

Trump hasn't really been correct on a single thing he's done in his second term so far.  This is the shit icing on the shit cake.  It's going to be extremely bad.

March 16, 2026

Something that Americans seemingly failed to take note in the Trump economy, which has been backwards looking, is that the rest of the world has been rushing into an electric future.

Contrary to what Donald Trump imagines, China is investing in wind power like crazy and now over 50% of new vehicles sold in China are electric.

The current war will accelerate those efforts everywhere but here, and as a result, we'll get further and further behind the curve.

This is what rule by demented octogenarians and their acolytes produced.

March 17, 2026

Wartime oil spike likely portends more bad than good for oil-rich Wyoming

(Reposted as this thread is glitchy)

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 1. The reap what you sow edition.