Friday, June 13, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 6. “Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.”

Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2025.

May 14, 2025

Wyoming Delegation Not Supportive Of Trump's Idea Of Tax Hike For The Rich

So Barrasso and Lummis separate from Trump on this?

Neither one of them are actually Trump supporters in terms of their personal beliefs, but have adopted his views for political survival in Wyoming, which is fanatically pro Trump.  Everyone is well aware that the budget is in a crisis stage and at some point soon the US needs to have a balanced budget. That can only be done through raising taxes, and they know it.

Additionally, taxing the wealthy will not hurt the economy, and everyone knows that.  Tax rates for the wealthy were much higher in prior decades with no ill effect on the economy.

A matter of critical interest.

Wyoming Is The Second Most Expensive State For Beer Lovers

And one Wyomingites just won't believe

Reaction To Trump Tariffs Helps Push Wyoming Oil Prices To Four-Year Low

This is an absolute fact, but if you follow the story on Facebook, a lot of Wyomingites just won't believe it. That would mean Trump is hurting the local economy, and they can't accept that. . . at least not yet.

Oil is at $62.02/bbl this morning.

May 15, 2025

Given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins. 

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon.

Oil is at $61.60/bbl.

May 17, 2025

Thanks to Republican mishandling of the economy, specifically increasing debt, Moody's downgraded the economy from Aaa to Aa1.

The GOP can't seem to grasp that you actually have to pay for the government.

New Jersey transit engineers are on strike.

Trump's "Big Beautiful Budget Bill", which would add $4T in debt, failed 16-21 in the House Budget Committee.

The irony is that those voting against it want more spending cuts, but only increased taxes will address this developing crisis.

Let's put this in bold, as people just don't seem to grasp it.

THE UNITED STATES CAN'T "CUT" ITS WAY OUT OF ITS BUDGET CRISIS.  IT MUST RAISE TAXES.

Cont:

It's really time to stop calling Trump a businessman:

He's a real estate developer. Clearly he's otherwise a business illiterate.

May 19, 2025

The Trump deficit expanding budget bill made it out of committee on a 17-16 vote with those who were to vote no, voting present.

This bill will be a disaster for already an already irresponsible Federal government.  Taxes need to be raised on income, particularly upper incomes to make the budget balance and this insanity cease.

May 22, 2025

The House of Representatives passed by a margin of one a funding bill that will swell the deficit disastrously while making cuts in Medicaid and food stamp while adding to border security.  Taxes will be cut, when they should be raised, and will irrationally be eliminated on tips and overtime.

Trump, who speaks oddly at best, has called this his "big beautiful tax bill"

Walmart is cutting 1,500 corporate jobs.

The stock market is crashing because of the bad tax bill. The bond market is flat.

West Texas crude is back down to $60.96.

Cont:

The "tip" exemption appears to be for "cash tips".

FWIW, bar tenders tend to get cash tips, but restaurant workers less and less.  FWIW, cash tips are notoriously underreported anyway, as they're impossible to keep track of.

May 23, 2025

Hageman’s Budget Vote Critical As House Passes One Big Beautiful Act 215-214


The next one is interesting:

Republicans are for state's rights, except when the state exercises the right to do something they don't like.

Likewise, the GOP is for local control, but really isn't.

At Lusk Town Meeting, Locals Say Wind Projects Have Ended Friendships

Developer Of Controversial Casper Gravel Mine Wants To Renew State Leases

Trump:


What does the "thank you for our attention to this matter" intend to do?

May 29, 2025

Federal trade court blocks Trump's emergency tariffs, saying he overstepped authority

That the power wasn't there was obvious.  Now the question is whether the Trump administration will obey the Court.

May 30, 2025

An appeals court is allowing the tariffs to be collected while the matter is on appeal, which is a poor ruling.

June 2, 2025

Well, of course. . . 

R&D job postings down 18% since president took office

From the same article, about the impact on the economy:

A 25% cut ultimately would reduce gross domestic product by an amount similar to the decline seen during the Great Recession, they said.

cont:

“Was it all bullshit?"

Donald Trump, reportedly, about Musk's promise to cut $1B from the government spending.

That anyone could seriously think that $1B could be cut from the discretionary budget demonstrates that the person has no grasp on the Federal budget whatsoever.

June 3, 2025

Elon Musk on the "Big Beautiful Bill".

It is an abomination, but so was the work that Musk was doing:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist 85th Edition. DOGE dipshittery and Clinton efficiency.

June 4, 2025

Oh my.

The CBO predicts Trump's Big Ugly Bill will cut taxes by $3.7T and raise the deficit by $2.4T.

It's pretty obvious what Congress should do.

A lot of House members are suddenly declaring they didn't read the bill.  That's a pretty good sign its in trouble.  Speaker Johnson claims the magic of supply side economics, which hasn't been dragged out since the Reagan years, will make it all okay.

Elon Musk and the Trumpites are now in a full fledged word war with each other.

Trump is threatening to hike steel and aluminum tariffs 50%.

June 5, 2025

The Wind River Job Corps in Riverton, was ordered to "pause" its activities in anticipation of getting the axe from Congress.

cont:

Proctor and Gamble is laying off 7,000 employees.

cont:

June 12, 2025

The conclusion of negotiations with China leaves tariffs on that country at 55%.

June 13, 2025

Trump signed a Congressional resolution counteracting California's prohibition on the sale of petroleum vehicles after 2035.

It appears that a TACO moment is coming up.


The messaging here is really spastic.  Illegal immigrants in cities are violent criminals, unless they work in the hospitality industry, in which case they're good, long time workers, which is also true of farms, even though the DHS has a plan to raid farms with National Guardsmen to remove them.

Eh?

Of course, regarding agriculture, which I'm very familiar with, this is all an unintended consequence of the Bracero Program, which started the process of taking American laborers out of the fields, all of which raises a larger question.  

Will Americans return to the jobs occupied by foreign workers, and what sort of pay will it require, if they will, to cause them to do that?

And with this entry, we close this edition.

End of Part Six.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

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