Upset by the consecration of Cyril VI Tanas as Patriarch of Antioch, Orthodox Patriarch Jeremias III of Constantinople declared Cyril's election to be invalid, excommunicated him, and appointed Sylvester of Antioch.
The division was over Cyril's desire to reunited the Orthodox Church with Rome. Jeremias' action caused a schism which ultimately lead to the Melkite Greek Catholic Church's uniting with Rome, a branch of Catholicism that has over 1,500,000 members today.
Last edition:
Israel is not "fighting Lebanon". I've seen that claim made, but it isn't.
It's striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, which translates as the "Party of God" is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and paramilitary group. The party does control large sections of Lebanon where Shia is dominant religious group.
Lebanon itself was carved out of Syria by the French during the French mandate period as it had a majority Christian population. It's one of the few areas of the Middle East which still does, with Islamic repression over centuries having forced conversions and emigration throughout the Middle East. Be that as it may, Lebanon is no longer a majority Christian state, and its a mess because of internal strife and division.
That came in due to the conflicts in the region, with the Palestinian refugee population of the 1970s being particularly problematic. The country fought a civil war that lasted in one form or another from 1975 to 1990. It's never been stable since.
It's very difficult to see a positive future for Lebanon in any form. That doesn't mean it won't occur, but it's hard to see.
What can be seen, in my view, is an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon coming in the next week or so.
The Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria was signed in Geneva. Artillery fire stopped at 1:15 p.m. The United Nations Disengagement Force was created by UN Security Council Resolution 350. Israel was left with the Golan Heights.
The British Home Office announced the end of the "bread and water" diet as a prison punishment.
Malaysia and China established diplomatic relations.
Vietnam Veterans marched from Boulder to Denver in protest over the war, which the US had of course withdrawn from, and for amnesty for draft evaders and deserters.
Last prior edition:
An Aeroflot Il-18 crashed within site of the Leningrad airport, killing all 109 passengers. The Soviet press didn't report on the event, in spite of the hysteria which understandably broke out at the airport.
Last prior edition:
“Iran lobbed 200+ missiles at Israel yesterday and we’re really worried that Israel will use this as an excuse to start a war”
What that lacks in intelligence, it makes up for in consistency: no matter what they are forced to endure, it’s somehow always the fault of the Jews.
Fr. Joseph Krupp on Twitter, with the quoted text paraphrasing the meaning of two Arab officials worrying that Israel will respond.
We should note that the Iranian assault was itself a response to the Israeli targeting the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Syria to kill a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Attacking an embassy is classically regarded as an act of war.
Of course, Iran and Israel have been in a shadow war for years.
Israel should not have done that. But the Iranian response was inept. Since they engaged in it, there's been a lot of commentary to the effect that Israel should not respond.
Really? To an assault like that? That's asking for a lot.
Basically, where this is at is here, by analogy. If Japan, on December 7, 1941, had lost all of its aircraft carriers and none of the ships in Pearl Harbor had been sunk, or even seriously damaged, would Japan have been allowed to come back with, "well there, we certainly taught you a lesson, now let's not overreact".
I doubt it.
Lots of people are hoping Israel doesn't respond, and it might not. Iran should certainly hope that, as its airborne offensive capabilities have been proven to be worthless against Israel and there's now an open question about what its defense capabilities are like. If it can't stop a serious Israeli counterstrike, it's fresh meat for the dogs in the neighborhood. "Oh look. . . Iran is bleeding. . . "
What this also shows is what Ukraine could do if it was provided with enough air defenses to take on Russian strikes. Russia's capabilities in this area really aren't much better than Iran's, and indeed, they're using Iranian drones.
Patty Hearst, a grandchild of newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst, was kidnapped from her apartment in Berkeley, California by the Symbionese Liberation Army. She was 19 at the time.
The group had first appeared in November when it had murdered Marcus Foster, the black Superintendent of Oakland Public Schools, and wounded his deputy superintendent Robert Blackburn.
The name of the entity, it might be noted, came from this, according to the organization:
The name 'symbionese' is taken from the word symbiosis and we define its meaning as a body of dissimilar bodies and organisms living in deep and loving harmony and partnership in the best interest of all within the body.
It's hard to seem how murdering public school superintendents fits that supposed goal. Robert Blackburn, who survived his wounds, noted:
These were not political radicals, They were uniquely mediocre and stunningly off-base. The people in the SLA had no grounding in history. They swung from the world of being thumb-in-the-mouth cheerleaders to self-described revolutionaries with nothing but rhetoric to support them.
Emblematic of the times, the goof ball entity was a kind of sort of Communist terrorist cell that rapidly became disenchanted with "the people" after distributions of food, which it had demanded as a ransom in Berkeley, didn't go well.
In April, the group raided a bank in San Francisco, in which Hearst seemed to take part, although she denied doing so willingly. She nonetheless was convicted due to the actions and served two years out of a seven-year sentence before Jimmy Carter, ever the kind man, had her released. Bill Clinton pardoned her.
In May the organization moved from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, where they got into a shootout at a sporting goods store where Hearst, on guard duty, fired shots. A shootout a couple of days later at a supposed safe house killed six of them.
Hearst was arrested in September 1975, back at a San Francisco safe house.
Hearst, as noted, was convicted, but she claimed she had never participated willingly, and had been raped and threatened while a captive. Given the nature of the SLA, that's certainly possible. Early on, however, after her arrest she had said that she comported her thoughts to theirs and was given a choice of being freed or fighting with them, and she elected to fight.
After her release, Hearst married Bernard Lee Shaw, a policeman who was part of her security detail during her time on bail. They had two children. He died in 2013.
The Provisional IRA bombed a bus on the M62 Motorway in England, killing nine solders and three civilians, including two children.
The Yom Kippur War resumed, but only as between Syria and Israel, with 500 Cuban soldiers joining a Syrian tank unit. Fighting resumed in the Golan Heights.
Time Magazine featured Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil on the cover, with the caption "The Impeachment Congress.
I've used the term "Coastal Arabs" here recently to describe the culture that stretches from teh Sinai to Turkey and which includes a lot of Syria.
It turns out, the word that I should have used is Levantines.
The region has its own dialect of Arabic, its own (really good) cuisine, and those who genetic history from the region can be identified by their DNA.
Yes, they are Arabs, but they are not Bedouin.
Syria became independent theoretically, but the French mandate continued.
The RAF bombed Berlin again.
The War Department was pondering its policies regarding African American soldiers.
From Sarah Sundin's blog:
Today in World War II History—January 1, 1944: Gen. Alexander Vandegrift replaces Gen. Thomas Holcomb as commandant of the US Marine Corps. US penny production switches from steel to a copper & brass alloy.
USC Trojans beat the Washington Huskies 29-0 in the Rose Bowl, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defeated Tulsa Golden Hurricane 20-18 in the Sugar Bowl., the LSU Tigers beat the Texas A&M Aggies 19-14 in the Orange Bow, the Cotton Bowl Classic ended in a 7–7 tie between the Randolph Field Ramblers and the Texas Longhorns.
I have now heard over and over in the press that the upcoming Israeli invasion is the "largest" this or that, suggesting that this is the biggest war, or the biggest deployment of troops, in Israel's history.
Is it?
Well, you have to have a sense of history to gauge that.
I've recently been running some items on the Yom Kippur War, which occured 50 years ago, and which brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of war. That pitted about 400,000 Israeli troops against the armies of Egypt and Syria, plus another 100,000 troops from other regional states. Right at about 1,000,000 Arab troops contested the Israelis.
Now, in this one, we do hear that 300,000 IDF reservists have been called up, and yes, that's a bunch. The total number of mass Israeli troops may exceed those that were hastily called up in 1973. We'll see. But the scope of the contest is, so far, smaller. Indeed, the calling up of the reservists may be in the hopes of keeping it smaller.
In the Six Day War, Israel had 264,000 troops, but only deployed 100,000 of them. The Arab forces had over 500,000 troops, but only deployed about 250,000 of them.
Israel isn't going to send all of is troops into Gaza. A lot of those troops were likely called up in order to secure its northern border. Assuming that it invades Gaza with this model, it certainly will not be Israel's largest war, but it might mean the largest overall manpower size for the IDF in its history.
Not that the threat of this being much larger doesn't exist. Iran seems intent on making it so.
President Nixon vetoed the War Powers Act. His veto was overridden on November 7.
A second ceasefire between Egypt and Israel went into effect in the Yom Kippur War. By this point in the war Egyptian gains had been more than reversed.
Kojak premiered.
The day was the first UN World Development Information Day, which coincided with United Nations Day.
Vice President Spiro T. Agnew resigned as Vice President and then, on the same day, plead no contest to income tax evasion, this baack in the day when such accusations would doom your position in office.
Angew was the son of a Greek immigrant father and an American mother of English background. Mixed marriages were unusual for those of Greek ethnicity in the first place and even more unusually, he was raised as an Episcopalian rather than as Greek Orthodox. He served in the Army during World War Two and entered politics thereafter.
His tax troubles lead Maryland to disbar him as "morally obtuse", back when there was such a thing as a state bar that would disbar somebody for being morally obtuse. He died in 1996.
The USSR began airlifting military equipment to Egypt and Syria.
The Senate passed the War Powers Act. It'd be vetoed, but Congress over road the veto.
Famed economist Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises died in New York at age 92.
September 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Vasily Popov, commander of the Russian 247th Guard Air Assault Regiment, was killed in a counter-attack in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia area.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Belarusian President Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes and called upon the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.
The Duma proposed blocking WhatsApp as part of the Kremlin’s effort to control the Russian information space.
cont:
Pro Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is critically ill.
September 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka near Bakhmut.
September 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Six Ukrainian deputy defense ministers were fired on Monday as part of an ongoing cleanup of corruption in the Ukrainian defense department.
Post Soviet Union Ukraine has been plagued with corruption, as has post Soviet Union Russia. This is no surprise, as the Soviet system encouraged corruption by its very nature, and so that post Soviet societies would feature a lot of it is to be expected.
Ironically, this fact has led opponents of supporting Ukraine, which is democratic and is fighting a just fight, to cite the corruption as a reason to allow the country to be conquered by Russia, although they don't put it that way. While the country has featured a lot of corruption, Russia's is now endemic and currently not only that case, but watching modern Russia is a lot like watching Goodfellas in real time.
Following 2013's Euromaiden protest, the country has moved increasingly towards the west and has had a strong desire to join the European Union and NATO. That is what has, in no small part, brought the current war about, as Putin, a Russian nationalist at heart, is opposed to that and sees Ukraine as a mere Russian province. Efforts to join NATO have lead to a list of further items Ukraine must address in order to do so, once the war is over, and cleaning up corruption will no doubt continue.
The ISW is giving praise to Ukrainian offensive efforts near Bakhmut, which it cites as having kept Russian forces committed in that area, leaving the Russians unable to reinforce further south. It's reporting that Russian forces in both areas are suffering severe degradation.
Iran v. Kurds
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed unis to the border with Iraq in an effort to put pressure on Iraq to arrest Kurdish efforts in Iran.
Iran messes heavily in regional conflicts, taking an active pro-government role in Syria for example. Here, however, the war in Syria and the conclusion of the war in Iraq has led to Kurdish semi autonomy, which has in turn lead to Kurdish activity in northern Iran.
cont:
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Azerbaijan’s declared an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under Armenian control. Armenian media indicated air raid sirens and mortar fire in the regional capital of Stepanakert had been observed.
Armenian forces recently trained with U.S. forces.
September 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Prime Minister of Poland has announced; "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons".
Poland and Ukraine have been in a dispute over grain, which has been flooding the Polish market as Ukraine's ports have been blocked, even while Poland has been a major supporter of Ukraine's war effort.
In spite of the way it's been portrayed, historically Poland and Ukraine have not gotten along and following World War One fought over their respective borders. During World War Two, Ukrainian nationalist militias committed acts of genocide against Polish villagers. The recent Polish support of Ukraine may reflect Polish animosity towards Russia as much as anything else.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul, who is a libertarian with isolationist tendencies, is holding up the most recent funding for Ukraine.
What both of these stories point out is that the slow moving progress of the Ukrainian offensive, while receiving support from some analysts such as those from the ISW, presents real problems in terms of ongoing Western support. Ukraine's strategy, from those supporting it, is reputed to be a slow moving offensive using artillery to attrit Russian forces, made necessarily in part by a lack of air assets. That may be correct, but if it is, Ukraine may find itself with decreasing material support from the West including the United States should the U.S. far right gain in Congress.
Wagner is withdrawing from Syria.
Cont:
Ukrainian light armor appears to have pushed through Russian lines near Bakhmut, which would be significant, if substantial and correct. Indeed, the fact that there are reports of this is significant as it would suggest Russian forces must be very downgraded in the area.
September 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was killed today by a Ukrainian missile/drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's Sevastopol headquarters.
September 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland walked back its earlier statement about not transferring arms to Ukraine, indicating that what was meant that new arms it is acquiring for itself will not be transferred.
September 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
According to ISW, the Ukrainian Army has broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. This is not, however, the final Russian defensive line.
September 25, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove appear to be close to surrounding the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka.
September 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Armenia effectively surrendered, and the subject enclave will be abandoned. Armenia is blaming Russia for its peacekeeping forces being ineffective.
US v. ISIL
The U.S. announced the capture of ISIL official Abu Halil al-Fad'ani in a raid in northern Syria.
September 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was in fact not killed on the Ukrainian missile strike on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet.
A Russian drone strike cut the ferry ties between Ukraine and Romania.
September 30, 2023
Armenia v. Azerbaijan
Almost the entire population of the ethnic Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, some 100,000 people, have since Azerbaijan seized the region last week.
October 1, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The emergency stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government for 45 days omits funds for Ukraine.
October 5, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drone attacks now occur inside of Russia daily. Two Russian cargo jets were destroyed at the Russian air base at Pskov yesterday, with the Russians claiming that the attacks were launched from inside of Russian territory.
Ukrainians have carried out a second commando raid on Crimea. The Russian navy has pulled out of Sevastopol and dispersed.
October 6, 2023
Syrian Civil War
A drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in the Syrian Homs, killed 80 and wounded 240. Some civilians were amongst the casualties.
China v. Everyone
A Chinese nuclear submarine is reported to have been caught in a Chinese submarine net last December, resulting in its sinking and the loss of the entire crew.
October 7, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border. Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has deployed snipers overseas against Wagner forces.
October 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated to newsmen last week, "I have to say that Zelensky is acting absolutely appropriately", a surprising statement from a Russian ally.
Hamas v. Israel
Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.
Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons. Hamas took hostages back into Israel.
Last prior edition:
Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel timed for the Yom Kippur holy day. The attack oddly commenced at 2:05 p.m.
It would be the largest of the Arab Israeli Wars, and one in which the Israeli Defense Force fared much more poorly than it had previously. Egypt's goals were limited, involving crossing the Suez Canal, which they succeeded in doing. Israeli forces would ultimately repulse the invading forces and come very near the Syrian capital of Damascus, but the results allowed the Egyptians to bargain for peace terms with Israel in later years.
Arab forces fared very well at first, catching the IDF off guard. Syrian advances caused the Israeli government to distribute Israel's small stock of nuclear weapons to is air force in case Arab forces advanced inside Israel itself, making this a non superpower war that came relatively close to becoming a nuclear one.
The British Mandate for Palestine went into effect, as did the French Mandate for Syria and Lebanon.
With this, the British Empire, and I'd guess French Empire reached their maximum territorial extents.
The grim news kept coming in on the recent Cole Creek disaster.
July 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy has been in Turkey where he met with and received oral support from the Turkish government, and where he appeared with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the head of the Eastern Orthodox Churches.
July 10, 2023
US v. ISIL
US Reaper drones killed had been flying ISIL leader Usamah al-Muhajir, while he was riding a motorcycle in the Aleppo region. The same drones had earlier been harassed by Russian fighter aircraft.
July 11, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Turkey has quit blocking Sweden's admittance into NATO.
Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitskiy, whose vessel fired on a Ukrainian city early in the war, was shot dead on a morning run near the Olimp sport complex in Krasnodar, southern Russia, according to reports.
July 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Turkey dropped objections to Sweden joining NATO, which shall now occur.
A missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov.
July 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Army, has been relieved of his command. He announced his removal to his troops.
The Group of Seven and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments, signalling a more formal arrangement to come, likely after the conclusion of the war.
This more or less means that unless Russia completely defeats Ukraine in the current war, one of Russia's war aims has been lost.
July 14, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US will be deploying 3,000 Reservists to Europe in support of the US's efforts to aid Ukraine.
July 14, cont:
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility. In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.
This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.
This is the first time I've actually seen an order which refers to the Individual Ready Reserve. It makes sense, actually, as IRR troops may have individual skills that would be useful in a t raining role.
My guess is that the IRR troops will be all volunteers for activation.
July 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Putin has indicated that he intends to keep the Wagner Group as a fighting force, but separated from its leader.
The SA, we would not, never amounted to what it had been before Ernst Röhm was offed.
July 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Wagner has been seen in Belarus and there are plans for it to conduct joint drills with the Belorussian army.
Something about this is really odd, and has to relate to whatever deal was struck. The Belorussian Army is generally regarded as pretty bad, FWIW.
Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov has been relieved of his command. It is not known why, but he was noted for speaking up for his troops.
July 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain shipment deal.
On This Week, Chris Christie maintained that Russia's war in Ukraine is being backed by the Chinese for Chinese objectives. This is becoming a persistent Republican theme. That the Chinese may be backing Russia doesn't surprise me, but the suggestion that the war is a Chinese proxy war, which is being made, doesn't ring true.
July 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Attempting to take advantage of commitment of Ukrainian forces elsewhere, the Russians are mounting an offensive in northeast Ukraine.
Ukraine hit the bridge from Crimea to the mainland again, heavily damaging it.
July 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
As Russian minefields take their toll on western-supplied tanks and Ukrainian sappers, their forces have so-far retaken approximately five miles of the sixty miles they need to split the land-bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The land between Mariupol in the east and Melitopol to the west is seen as the vital ground to achieving this.
It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.
This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.
* * *
While much fighting remains to be done across Ukraine’s southern farmlands over the coming months, governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions as one potential political outcome of a failed counter-offensive. Whether a Putinist Kremlin would respect such a deal if Kyiv were to receive security pledges short of full Nato membership is extremely doubtful.
Regardless, this would surely be a favoured outcome for China’s ruling “wolf warrior” foreign policy elite. Beijing would be utterly delighted if the war were to end with Ukraine divided, Russian troops permanently in the Donbas harassing Kyiv and Europe, and Nato fractured on political lines. Such an outcome would be a gift to China as Xi Jinping begins to ramp up his own imperialistic and extra-territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific – and a devastating defeat for the West.
The Telegraph.
Russia is amassing vast numbers of troops and equipment along the northern frontline in Ukraine, Kyiv has warned.
Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told local television that Moscow had gathered more than 100,000 troops on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis, as well as 900 tanks, 555 artillery systems and 370 multiple rocket launchers.
Newsweek.
The Ukrainians are obviously not beaten, and ISW feels the troops in the north that Russia intends to commit to a counteroffensive are of poor quality and will not be successful, but it's obviously the case that the Ukrainian offensive is not achieving its goals in the face of Russian defense in depth and massive use of mines.
July 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia conducted a missile offensive on Ukrainian ports yesterday, no doubt designed to disrupt Ukrainian grain shipments.
July 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
July 21, cont.
Igor Girkin, who is associated with the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 people, was arrested in Russia today by Russian authorities.
Heads continue to keep rolling.
July 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Now Ukraine is in a battle to get back more of the land that Russia seized from it. It's already taken back about 50 percent of what was initially seized. Now they're in a very hard fight to take back more. These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
Drones hit two buildings in Moscow.
A Russian missile strike on Odessa badly damaged the Cathedral of the Transfiguration.
July 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has launched a massive offensive action against Russians in the Zaporizhzhia region. They appear to have cleared defensive obstacles and are pushing through.
July 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.[1] Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.
There are now multiple reports that a "second phase" or "main phase" of the Ukrainian summer offensive have been launched
Niger
Members of the armed forces are attempting a coup.
Syria
Russian Air Force fighters continue to interfere with American drones.
July 31, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow again within the last 24 hours.
Former President Donald Trump, and current candidate, urged aid to Ukraine to be suspended until evidence regarding Hunter Biden is submitted fully to Congress.
These topics are not rationally related to each other, but Trump is demonstrating increasing irrationality in the face of multiple criminal investigations concerning his post election activities.
China v. US
It is being asserted that China has inserted malware into computer networks servicing U.S bases.
August 4, 2023
An attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk by Ukrainian drones resulted in a Russian warship capsizing.
August 6, 2023
Niger
The military asked for help from the Wagner Group to defend itself against anticipated military action by African states to restore the democracy in that country.
Russo Ukrainian War
From the Trib:
Russia raised the upper limit for conscription to 30 years of age.
August 7, 2023
Niger
Niger has closed its airspace.
August 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland is deploying up to 10,000 troops on its border with Belarus due to the presence of Wagner mercenaries being deployed on the Belorussian side of the border.
August 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has taken Urozhaine.
August 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
A Defense Department briefing of Congressmen has stated that Ukraine will not reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, presuming that to be a key objective, and therefore will not sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea this year.
The report attributes it to minefields and Ukraine determining to ignore Western advice to use a schwerpunkt, particularly after having encountered initial heavy Russian resistance and large-scale losses, something amplified by a lack of air cover.
The report finds that Ukrainian forces will remain several miles outside of Melitopol at the conclusion of the offensive.
There's no way to put a happy face on this conclusion, if it comes true. Opting for attriting Russian forces was reverting to World War One tactics.
At the same time, however, there are now reports of Ukraine committing troops in large numbers which it had held back earlier.
August 18, cont:
A less gloomy view:
August 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian troops have broken through to the north of Tokmak.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast.
August 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.
August 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said.
The BBC.
It can't help but be noted that opponents of Putin have a bizarrely high attrition rate and an unusual number of accidents. It could just be coincidence, but it's weird.
cont:
The early reports had this plane as shot down.
Video shows a plane that looks like it was shot down.
cont:
President Biden on the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin: "I said I would be careful of what I drink and what I rode in. I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."
CSPAN.
As an aside, somehow those who hate everything Biden and love everything Trump will find a way to criticize that pretty honest comment, whereas if Trump said the same thing (which he couldn't due to his weird diction), they'd think it the soul of wit.
August 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.
Cont:
Kristina Raspopova.
She was the flight attendant of Embraer Legacy 600 Business Jet blown out of the sky in order to kill Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagnerites. The young woman had taken the flight in order to be able to return home and to her next station early.
It's not possible to weep for Yevgeny Prigozhin. He lived by the sword and died by it, and the actions of his men have been brutal. It is possible to hope that he realized the gravity of his sins and reconciled before his death.
But killing innocent stewardesses is just flat out murder.
August 25, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine conducted an amphibious commando raid on the facilities of the Crimean municipalities of Olenivka and Mayak.
August 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces continue to grain in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and may be close to breaking out.
August 30, 2023
Gabon
The Gabonese Army has taken over that country in a coup following an election which returned to office a member of the family that has ruled the country for 50 years.
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukrainian paratroopers, in a ground assault role, are flanking Russian positions at Novoprokopivka, a town that sits on the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol.
Ukraine is receiving an additional $250,000,000 in U.S. aid.
A Ukrainian drone attack occured on the airfield at Pskov.
August 31, 2023
China v. Taiwan
The US has approved $80,000,000 in aid to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing, something normally only done for soveign states.
Taiwan, which is the Republic of China, has never declared independence from China. Rather, it's claim to be China's legitimate government has been quietly abandoned over the years. The People's Republic of China, of course, claims the island as it's own and continually threatens to invade it. In reality, Taiwan is de facto independent if not de jure, a status which really ought to change, and which this is a step towards.
It'll probably enrage the Red menance.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian light infantry has infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov has reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a continued attempt to distance himself from the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. I ownder if he's avoiding going up stairs recently?
Last Prior Edition:
We're only on to Feb 1 and already on to the second edition of this thread for 2023.
The reason is simple enough, the last version is already so long that certain features, such as the spell check, aren't working for new entries. It's easier and more convenient to put up a second edition.
The big news remains, of course, the war in Ukraine. Now a year old, the drama saw an anticipated Russian walk over turn into a monumentally expensive military disaster, with the Russians suffering battlefield defeats and being pushed out of much of what they'd taken in the first weeks of the war.
Right now, the battlefield is nearly static, recalling the long stretches of World War One where neither side had the ability to defeat the other. What seems to be really going on, however, is that the Russians have taken a page out of the Soviet Union's playbook and have been buying time with bodies, sending in convicts and conscripts to soak up Ukrainian munitions while they build towards a resumed offensive which is expected to start soon.
The Ukrainians know this, and are trying to prepare for it. Part of that preparation is the acquisition of modern Western heavy weapons, which have not yet been provided to them. Western military analysts have been critical of the West for this, but frankly, early in the war nobody saw the Ukrainians being in the position they now are in.
So a race is on, in which the West scrambles to provide modern main battle tanks, and Ukraine asks for any new system, including F-16s, which it thinks it can get and needs, against a Russian build up based on lessons learned and a larger army.
What should be clear is this. Putin cannot negotiate, at least not unless he fears a disaster that will remove him from office completely. Ukraine cannot give in. It's easy to figure out what a Russian victory would be, but harder to figure out how Ukraine can force a battlefield conclusion.
Having said that, Ukraine might be able to push Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and if I were their strategist, which I'm not, advance across the frontier to the western bank of the Don, which would give the country some security and perhaps something to cause a coup in Russia. But if they are going to do so, they'll have to achieve that in the next several months as it fights a country whose population has 100,000,000 more souls than it does.
Slava Ukraini.
February 1, 2023, continued:
An announcement from the Canadian government:
Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Prime Minister expressed Canada’s ongoing solidarity with the Ukrainian people as they continue to fight Russia’s brutal invasion while facing Russian strikes on civilian targets. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s military, humanitarian, and financial needs, as well as the recent announcements of significant new support to Ukraine. They also spoke about how Canada and like-minded partners could continue working together to meet Ukraine’s needs due to Russia’s ongoing illegal and unprovoked invasion.
The Prime Minister and the President talked about the upcoming somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, and the Prime Minister reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed President Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts toward a just peace, and the two leaders discussed ongoing engagement with the Global South.
The leaders agreed to remain in close and regular contact.
Canada recently announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, out of an inventory of 112, of which 82 are the combat model and the rest an engineering model.
A couple of things.
The Canadian Army doesn't have a lot of tanks, but its only really likely to need its tanks if Ukraine goes down in defeat and Russia turns its gaze on other territory it once ruled. Regarding Leopard 2 tanks in general, the British paper the Guardian notes:
There are over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 Nato countries, according to the IISS, whereas there are only 227 Challenger 2 tanks in the British entire army.
2,300.
The Ukrainians are basically asking for about 300, or at least 100.
There's plenty of them around, although some countries, the Guardian notes, have let theirs deteriorate to such a state they're pretty much unusable. Spain is in that category.
The US has 2,300 M60s in storage. They're not being used at all. A lot of them are probably not serviceable, but a lot of them could be made serviceable.
Also, Justin Trudeau came into office with a pledge to withdraw Canadian forces from their commitments in the Middle East. This isn't the Middle East, and of course the United States made a dog's breakfast out of its withdrawal from Afghanistan about two years ago. But it's interesting how events tend to dictate what countries do, as opposed to countries opting how events will proceed.
Canada, FWIW, has a pretty large Ukrainian Canadian population, that being people of Ukrainian heritage. It's estimated to number 1,359,655 people.
.jpg)
February 2, 2023
Israel-Hamas
Israeli aircraft hit Hamas targets in Gaza following a rocket attack.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Careful watchers of the Op Ed page might note that there's been a growing theme in the last couple of weeks of defeatist "Ukraine can never win" type of opinions being published by pundits. Boiled down, the general gist of them is 1) yes the Ukrainians have managed to hold off the Russians so far, but the Russians have an infinite capacity to absorb losses and 2) they're going to ultimately win through sheer attrition and 3) therefore, NATO support is just prolonging the suffering.
Probably all of these commentators have been against NATO support for Ukraine since the onset, for different reasons. Some are likely America Firsters, others highly fiscally conservative, and some probably Russian sympathizers. The message, however, is all the same, and this will keep up for a while in anticipation of the oncoming Russian offensive.
Historically, it might be worth remembering that the "lesson of history" that "Russia always prevails" is not supported much by actual examples. If we go back a bit, the opposite seems to be the case.
Russia lost the Crimean War, which lead to an unsuccessful effort to modernize the Russian state. It also lost the Russo-Japanese War. It also lost against the Germans in World War One, leading to a complete collapse of the Russian government and revolution, replacing the existing regime with a democratic one which was in turn replaced by a Communist one.
It was on the winning side, of course, in World War Two, but its victory in that war has been so heavily mythologized that it became misunderstood. In reality, the USSR started off as a German ally, taking part of Poland and the Baltic States, but being fought to a standstill by the much smaller nation of Finland. Its status changed in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany, but it was not able to arrest German progress without massive American and British aid. Had the Western Allies chosen to ignore the Soviet Union, which they really could not have, it's not really known what would have occurred. Lenin bargained away Poland, Belorussia and Ukraine to the Germans in 1917 in order to retain control of Russia itself, and it may well have done the same in World War Two but for Allied assistance. Germany's land lust was vast, but it never intended to take all of Russia and in fact it never occupied very much of it, most of its success being in the lands just mentioned. Moreover, the Soviets were able to rely upon the Belorussians and Ukrainians, for the most part, to fight against the Germans. People the USSR regarded as non-Russian nationalities made up to 45% of the Red Army, with Ukrainians making up over 60% of the Red Army on the Ukrainian Fronts. Jewish soldiers in the Red Army, regarded as a separate nationality, were more likely to be decorated for combat than Russians.
Looked at that way, the current war is the first time the Russians have fought a war in which their army has been more or less ethnically homogeneous since the Russian Civil War. Moreover, the actual history of Russian wars is that the Russians can endure a long war and then collapse into revolution. The Crimean War saw Cossack revolts. The Russo Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution. World War one lead to the complete collapse of the Russian state.
Ukraine can win, but it has to be given the means to do so, and very soon. If Ukraine could be adequately armed this month, and that is what it may take, the oncoming Russian spring offensive could end up a disaster. When Russian armies experience collapse, which they never did during World War Two, it usually leads to a downfall in the Kremlin.
February 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine is reporting that Putin has ordered the Russian forces to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.
The particularly concerning thing about this is that it's very doubtful that new armor will be deployed in Ukraine by the time of the Russian offensive.
Russians have been seeking passports in mass numbers. Russia has suspended issuing them, and now Russians are seeking foreign passports.
China
China has been overflying the United States with a spy balloon. The US pondered shooting it down, but concluded its intelligence gathering abilities are limited, and it would be more dangerous as a falling object.
Yesterday it was over Montana.
February 4, 2023
China
A second Chinese spy balloon has been spotted, this one headed for an overflight of South America.
Secretary of State Blinken cancelled an intended visit to China over this.
Frankly, there's no good reason for the US not to have shot this down over southern Canada, if Canada would have allowed for it to happen, or for the Canadians to do it. Likewise, while it was over Wyoming or Montana, it should have been shot down. The junk it's carrying would have hit nothing.
Russia
The US is seeking to expel the Wagner Group from Sudan and Libya.
Feb 4, cont.
China v. US.
Perhaps for the first time since World War One, a US aircraft has shot down a balloon.
February 6, 2023
China v. US.
The Administration has announced that it was discovered that the Chinese flew spy balloons over the US during the Trump administration, but apparently they were not detected at the time. The revelation was dismissed by Trump as "fake disinformation". The Biden Administration offered to brief the Trumpites.
At any rate, the news that the Chinese have been able to pull this off over the past several years undetected is not good news.
Additionally, with the past week or so a U.S. Air Force general has stated that he's fairly certain there will be a war between the United States and China over the defense of Taiwan. Interestingly this has been a sort of Republican rallying point even though some sections of the GOP are willing to abandon Ukraine. While perhaps not obvious to everyone, a Ukrainian victory would perhaps serve to delay that, and delay might serve to prevent it.
As for the balloon itself, there is speculation that this was an intentional provaction designed to demonstrate that the US couldn't react, and would do so ineffectively. If so, it probably partially succeeded in demonstrating that, given as the US was so slow to shoot it down.
February 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine's president, asking for more arms for the country yesterday, also asked for admission to the European Union.
February 11, 2023
China v. US and Canada
Two more balloons have now been shot down, one over norther Alaska and one over British Columbia. The US shot them both down, the latter via a Canadian request.
The balloons have not been affirmatively identfied as Chinese, but seeing as China is a 19th Century imperial power and balloons a 19th Century surveillance aircraft, it seems likely.
China has become a full blown menace. Where this is headed seems fairly obvious.
February 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
There are suddenly a lot of voices coming out of Russia suggesting that it won't be able to launch its anticipated spring offensive due, in part, to manpower losses.
Russia has been taking combat losses like crazy the past couple of weeks, and while its made slight gains, they've been very slight and are comiing at a huge cost.
Ukraine has destroyed a Russian BMPT Terminator in combat. The much vaunted autonomous combat vehicle was overblown to start with and unlikely to amount much, as has been the case with all prior attempts to deploy weapons of this type.
Lithuanian supplied Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns have arrived in Ukraine. Ukraine itself is presssing for Western fighter aircraft.
February 12, cont:
And now another object shot down, this one over Lake Huron.
February 13, 2023
China v. US and Canada
The Aerodrome: Why Canada didn't shoot down the "unidentified" ob...: An excellent thread on NORAD and the strategic considerations that went into it and the modern RCAF: Why didn't Canada shoot down the o...
One of the things he points out in this post is that the F-22, which Canada does not have, is one of the few aircraft capable of performing in the fighter role at such a high altitude.
.jpg)
It's been pointed out ot me by a highly knowledgable person that the reason we may be picking up so many of these now is that NORAD has adjusted its radar screening to pick these up. The Congressman made the same point. We have traditionally been looking for Soviet or Chinese ICBMs and Soviet aircraft, not slow moving balloons.
Finally, a commentator made the point that we may call these balloons, but they're really drones.
On a goofball level, lots of people are launching speculation on whether they indicate an alien invasion, meaning alien from outspace as opposed to alien from another country.
I also saw somebody quote Noam Chomsky, to the effect that government and elites need to keep people distracted in order to carry out their agenda. Frankly, I don't know why anyone quotes Chomsky on anything whatsoever, other than linquistics. Feeling that the government and elites in this country are so coordinated that they have a plan to keep us distracted while they do whatever deeply evil nepharious, and right wing, plot against the working me of the 1930s is crediting everyone with a lot more organization and foresight than they deserve. Anyhow, that person thought the whole thing was a false flag operation.
Get a grip.
Russo Ukrainian War.
The Institute for the Study of War credits Russia with a real information false flag, in the form of media propoganda designed to suggest back in December that they were ready for peace talks, when they were not. This, the Institute maintains, delayed the supplying of armor to Ukraine.
There's no reason whatsoever to believe at this point that the Russians are aiming for anything else than the complete defeat of Ukraine.
February 14, 2023
Russia v. Moldova
Moldova has revealed a Russian plot, first revealed by Ukraine last week, to destabilize the small country and bring it into the Russian orbit.
Moldova is an independent country because of Russia, but not in the way a person might at first imagine. It was part of the Russian Empire after 1812 and then declared independence in 1918, and then joined Romania later that same year. The country is essentially Romanian. The Soviet Union took the territory back in 1940 which was a principal cause of Romania joining Operation Barbarossa the following year. Following the Axis defeat, the USSR took it back, but it left again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That Russia continues to covet it is interesting. This appears to be at least partially in reaction to Moldova's efforts to move closer to the EU in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
February 16, 2023
British defense estimates figure that the Russians have potentially committed 97% of their Army to combat in Ukraine and have now sustained so many casualties that they no longer can engage in a sustained offensive.
If this is correct, and its a big if, it would likely mean the anticiapted spring offensive is not coming, and beyond that, the Russians might not be able to mount a sustained defense against a Ukrainian offensive.
February 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Russians have put in excess of 6,000 Ukrainian children through reducation camps.
Marina Yankina, a Russian defense official whose role in the current war was with finance, fell, supposedly, from a 16 story building to her death.
Hmmm. . . .
China v. US and Canada
The Aerodrome: Failed Balloon Run: It's now known that the U.S. Air Force did attempt to shoot down the Chinese balloon over Montana, using the F-22's cannons as the i...
February 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
The Wagner Group has sustained 30,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine.
Parts of the Belorussian defense industry are being taken over by Russia.
February 19, 2023
United States v. ISIS
February 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Analysts increasingly believe that Russia is in its Spring offensive, but that it has adopted a World War One attrition style strategy where it simply throws men at the Ukrainians knowing that they are expending ammunition, and lives themselves, resisting them. The strategy isn't to be rapid, but simply cause Ukraine to hemorrhage.
Ukraine is aware of this, which is why it is begging for modern weapons with which to launch its own more mobile offensive.
Russia has committed 97% of its army to combat at its strategy is not without risk. It's performance has been abysmal and its using up its human resources.
Some, however, believe that the slowness of the Russian advance reflects wartime attrition, and that the Russians are actually deploying per doctrine, but without much armor.
China appears ready to start supplying Russia with weapons. The US is warning China not to do so. There's some speculation that China hopes to prolong the war as it does not wish to see Russia fail, and it wants the US to use up its weapons stockpile so that it has nothing with which to aid Taiwan in the (highly likely) event that China attempts to invade Taiwan.
President Biden is in Kyiv.
February 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Vladimir Putin suspended the START Treaty regarding nuclear weapons, the irony being that a country whose conventional weapons have been shown to be ineffective, and which is using them up at a prodigious rate, can hardly afford to engage in a nuclear arms race.
Putin did this in an epic length speech on the anniversary of the war he launched on his neighbor. The speech was telling as he claims that he's not waging a war on the Ukrainians themselves. This raises the question of to what extent Putin might actually be delusional.
NPR released an excellent edition of its podcast State of Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the war.
Ukrainian newspapers have broken the news that they have a secret Russian document outlining Russian plans to absorb Byelorussia by 2030.
February 23, 2023
China v. United States and Canada
The Aerodrome: United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph ...:
Russia v. Moldova
Vladimir Putin renounced his 2012 guarantee of Moldova's territorial integrity.
February 24, 2023
Russia v. Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldova
The UN passed a resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine.
Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been moved near Russia's border with Byelorussia in what appears likely to be staging for a false flag attack on that country, in an effort to expand the war.
Russia also appears to be staging for a false flag operation in Transnistria, the Russian enclave/breakaway region of Moldova. The area houses one of the world's largest prestaged arms and ammunition stockpiles.
All of this suggests that Russia is set to attempt to expand, not contract, the war.
Prior Related Threads:
