Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Tuesday, January 1, 1925. Marines in China.




Christiania, Norway, was renamed Oslo, it's old and original name.

Marines landed at Nanjing to patrol near the university and to protect Americans in the vicinity.

Costa Rica, unhappy with the League of Nations failure to address regional issues, withdrew form the body.

The French mandate states of Aleppo and Damascus were united in the State of Syria.

Last edition:

Wednesday, December 31, 1924. Final Home Edition.

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Sudden collapse edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

British troops entering Damascus, October, 1918.
I am Syrian, I was made in Syria, I have to live in Syria and die in Syria. 
Bashar al-Assad
It is no exaggeration to say that Syria holds the key for nearly all of America's foreign policy goals in the Middle East. As Syria goes, so goes the region. 
Reza Aslan
From Syria even to Rome I fight with wild beasts, by land and sea, by night and by day, being bound amidst ten leopards, even a company of soldiers, who only grow worse when they are kindly treated.
Ignatius of Antioch

December 8, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Damascus and Assad has fled.  The Syrian army is still fighting in some places, but has declared it is not under Assad.

Syrian rebels have attacked Kurdish forces in the north of the country.

cont:

It appears that the Russian manufactured airplane carrying Assad and his family out of the country was shot down near the Lebanese border.  Or at least that's the rumor.

December 9, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Assad fled to Moscow and has received asylum.

Israel has seized positions in the Golan Heights outside of those it normally occupies.

cont:

Israel has occupied Mt. Hermon, Syria's highest peak, which puts Damascus within range of Israeli artillery.

December 11, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The US has been hitting ISIL targets in Syria since the fall of Assad.  Israel has been hitting Syrian Army supplies.  Turkey hit the Kurds with a drone strike.


Forgive us our trespasses: grant us your peace

I. Listening to the plea of an endangered humanity

1. At the dawn of this New Year given to us by our heavenly Father, a year of Jubilee in the spirit of hope, I offer heartfelt good wishes of peace to every man and woman. I think especially of those who feel downtrodden, burdened by their past mistakes, oppressed by the judgment of others and incapable of perceiving even a glimmer of hope for their own lives. Upon everyone I invoke hope and peace, for this is a Year of Grace born of the Heart of the Redeemer!

2. Throughout this year, the Catholic Church celebrates the Jubilee, an event that fills hearts with hope. The “jubilee” recalls an ancient Jewish practice, when, every forty-ninth year, the sound of a ram’s horn (in Hebrew, jobel) would proclaim a year of forgiveness and freedom for the entire people (cf. Lev 25:10). This solemn proclamation was meant to echo throughout the land (cf. Lev 25:9) and to restore God’s justice in every aspect of life: in the use of the land, in the possession of goods and in relationships with others, above all the poor and the dispossessed. The blowing of the horn reminded the entire people, rich and poor alike, that no one comes into this world doomed to oppression: all of us are brothers and sisters, sons and daughters of the same Father, born to live in freedom, in accordance with the Lord’s will (cf. Lev 25:17, 25, 43, 46, 55).

3. In our day too, the Jubilee is an event that inspires us to seek to establish the liberating justice of God in our world. In place of the ram’s horn, at the start of this Year of Grace we wish to hear the “desperate plea for help” [1] that, like the cry of the blood of Abel (cf. Gen 4:10), rises up from so many parts of our world – a plea that God never fails to hear. We for our part feel bound to cry out and denounce the many situations in which the earth is exploited and our neighbours oppressed. [2] These injustices can appear at times in the form of what Saint John Paul II called “structures of sin”, [3] that arise not only from injustice on the part of some but are also consolidated and maintained by a network of complicity.

4. Each of us must feel in some way responsible for the devastation to which the earth, our common home, has been subjected, beginning with those actions that, albeit only indirectly, fuel the conflicts that presently plague our human family. Systemic challenges, distinct yet interconnected, are thus created and together cause havoc in our world. [4] I think, in particular, of all manner of disparities, the inhuman treatment meted out to migrants, environmental decay, the confusion willfully created by disinformation, the refusal to engage in any form of dialogue and the immense resources spent on the industry of war. All these, taken together, represent a threat to the existence of humanity as a whole. At the beginning of this year, then, we desire to heed the plea of suffering humankind in order to feel called, together and as individuals, to break the bonds of injustice and to proclaim God’s justice. Sporadic acts of philanthropy are not enough. Cultural and structural changes are necessary, so that enduring change may come about. [5]

II. A cultural change: all of us are debtors

5. The celebration of the Jubilee spurs us to make a number of changes in order to confront the present state of injustice and inequality by reminding ourselves that the goods of the earth are meant not for a privileged few, but for everyone. [6] We do well to recall the words of Saint Basil of Caesarea: “Tell me, what things belong to you? Where did you find them to make them part of your life? … Did you not come forth naked from the womb of your mother? Will you not return naked to the ground? Where did your property come from? If you say that it comes to you naturally by luck, you would deny God by not recognizing the Creator and being grateful to the Giver”. [7] Without gratitude, we are unable to recognize God’s gifts. Yet in his infinite mercy the Lord does not abandon sinful humanity, but instead reaffirms his gift of life by the saving forgiveness offered to all through Jesus Christ. That is why, in teaching us the “Our Father”, Jesus told us to pray: “Forgive us our trespasses” ( Mt 6:12).

6. Once we lose sight of our relationship to the Father, we begin to cherish the illusion that our relationships with others can be governed by a logic of exploitation and oppression, where might makes right. [8] Like the elites at the time of Jesus, who profited from the suffering of the poor, so today, in our interconnected global village, [9] the international system, unless it is inspired by a spirit of solidarity and interdependence, gives rise to injustices, aggravated by corruption, which leave the poorer countries trapped. A mentality that exploits the indebted can serve as a shorthand description of the present “debt crisis” that weighs upon a number of countries, above all in the global South.

7. I have repeatedly stated that foreign debt has become a means of control whereby certain governments and private financial institutions of the richer countries unscrupulously and indiscriminately exploit the human and natural resources of poorer countries, simply to satisfy the demands of their own markets. [10] In addition, different peoples, already burdened by international debt, find themselves also forced to bear the burden of the “ecological debt” incurred by the more developed countries. [11] Foreign debt and ecological debt are two sides of the same coin, namely the mindset of exploitation that has culminated in the debt crisis. [12] In the spirit of this Jubilee Year, I urge the international community to work towards forgiving foreign debt in recognition of the ecological debt existing between the North and the South of this world. This is an appeal for solidarity, but above all for justice. [13]

8. The cultural and structural change needed to surmount this crisis will come about when we finally recognize that we are all sons and daughters of the one Father, that we are all in his debt but also that we need one another, in a spirit of shared and diversified responsibility. We will be able to “rediscover once for all that we need one another” and are indebted one to another. [14]

III. A journey of hope: three proposals

9. If we take to heart these much-needed changes, the Jubilee Year of Grace can serve to set each of us on a renewed journey of hope, born of the experience of God’s unlimited mercy. [15]

God owes nothing to anyone, yet he constantly bestows his grace and mercy upon all. As Isaac of Nineveh, a seventh-century Father of the Eastern Church, put it in one of his prayers: “Your love, Lord, is greater than my trespasses. The waves of the sea are nothing with respect to the multitude of my sins, but placed on a scale and weighed against your love, they vanish like a speck of dust”. [16] God does not weigh up the evils we commit; rather, he is immensely “rich in mercy, for the great love with which he loved us” ( Eph 2:4). Yet he also hears the plea of the poor and the cry of the earth. We would do well simply to stop for a moment, at the beginning of this year, to think of the mercy with which he constantly forgives our sins and forgives our every debt, so that our hearts may overflow with hope and peace.

10. In teaching us to pray the “Our Father”, Jesus begins by asking the Father to forgive our trespasses, but passes immediately to the challenging words: “as we forgive those who trespass against us” (cf. Mt 6:12). In order to forgive others their trespasses and to offer them hope, we need for our own lives to be filled with that same hope, the fruit of our experience of God’s mercy. Hope overflows in generosity; it is free of calculation, makes no hidden demands, is unconcerned with gain, but aims at one thing alone: to raise up those who have fallen, to heal hearts that are broken and to set us free from every kind of bondage.

11. Consequently, at the beginning of this Year of Grace, I would like to offer three proposals capable of restoring dignity to the lives of entire peoples and enabling them to set them out anew on the journey of hope. In this way, the debt crisis can be overcome and all of us can once more realize that we are debtors whose debts have been forgiven.

First, I renew the appeal launched by Saint John Paul II on the occasion of the Great Jubilee of the Year 2000 to consider “reducing substantially, if not cancelling outright, the international debt which seriously threatens the future of many nations”. [17] In recognition of their ecological debt, the more prosperous countries ought to feel called to do everything possible to forgive the debts of those countries that are in no condition to repay the amount they owe. Naturally, lest this prove merely an isolated act of charity that simply reboots the vicious cycle of financing and indebtedness, a new financial framework must be devised, leading to the creation of a global financial Charter based on solidarity and harmony between peoples.

I also ask for a firm commitment to respect for the dignity of human life from conception to natural death, so that each person can cherish his or her own life and all may look with hope to a future of prosperity and happiness for themselves and for their children. Without hope for the future, it becomes hard for the young to look forward to bringing new lives into the world. Here I would like once more to propose a concrete gesture that can help foster the culture of life, namely the elimination of the death penalty in all nations. This penalty not only compromises the inviolability of life but eliminates every human hope of forgiveness and rehabilitation. [18]

In addition, following in the footsteps of Saint Paul VI and Benedict XVI, [19] I do not hesitate to make yet another appeal, for the sake of future generations. In this time marked by wars, let us use at least a fixed percentage of the money earmarked for armaments to establish a global Fund to eradicate hunger and facilitate in the poorer countries educational activities aimed at promoting sustainable development and combating climate change. [20] We need to work at eliminating every pretext that encourages young people to regard their future as hopeless or dominated by the thirst to avenge the blood of their dear ones. The future is a gift meant to enable us to go beyond past failures and to pave new paths of peace.

IV. The goal of peace

12. Those who take up these proposals and set out on the journey of hope will surely glimpse the dawn of the greatly desired goal of peace. The Psalmist promises us that “steadfast love and faithfulness will meet; righteousness and peace will kiss” ( Ps 85:10). When I divest myself of the weapon of credit and restore the path of hope to one of my brothers or sisters, I contribute to the restoration of God’s justice on this earth and, with that person, I advance towards the goal of peace. As Saint John XXIII observed, true peace can be born only from a heart “disarmed” of anxiety and the fear of war. [21]

13. May 2025 be a year in which peace flourishes! A true and lasting peace that goes beyond quibbling over the details of agreements and human compromises. [22] May we seek the true peace that is granted by God to hearts disarmed: hearts not set on calculating what is mine and what is yours; hearts that turn selfishness into readiness to reach out to others; hearts that see themselves as indebted to God and thus prepared to forgive the debts that oppress others; hearts that replace anxiety about the future with the hope that every individual can be a resource for the building of a better world.

14. Disarming hearts is a job for everyone, great and small, rich and poor alike. At times, something quite simple will do, such as “a smile, a small gesture of friendship, a kind look, a ready ear, a good deed”. [23] With such gestures, we progress towards the goal of peace. We will arrive all the more quickly if, in the course of journeying alongside our brothers and sisters, we discover that we have changed from the time we first set out. Peace does not only come with the end of wars but with the dawn of a new world, a world in which we realize that we are different, closer and more fraternal than we ever thought possible.

15. Lord, grant us your peace! This is my prayer to God as I now offer my cordial good wishes for the New Year to the Heads of State and Government, to the leaders of International Organizations, to the leaders of the various religions and to every person of good will.

Forgive us our trespasses, Lord,

as we forgive those who trespass against us.

In this cycle of forgiveness, grant us your peace,

the peace that you alone can give

to those who let themselves be disarmed in heart,

to those who choose in hope to forgive the debts of their brothers and sisters,

to those who are unafraid to confess their debt to you,

and to those who do not close their ears to the cry of the poor.

From the Vatican, 8 December 2024

The Kurd's in control of northern Syria have ordered the pre 1964 Syrian flag, which is used by rebel forces, flown on their territory.


December 14, 2024

South Korea

In a process that's clearly different than the American one, the President of South Korea has been stripped of his powers for declaring martial law, but remains in office until a constitutional court decides his fate.  This is the result of an impeachment, one I'd note that worked.

December 16, 2024

Poland

Poland Poland has introduced compulsory military firearms classes in all its elementary and secondary schools.

December 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian agents killed Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, outside an apartment building in Moscow.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Before people get all giddy about the fall of Assad. . .

 we should keep in mind that, while reprehensible, he was not an Islamist.  

The group that seems to have come out on top. . .for right now, basically is.

And some rebel group is already fighting the Kurds.

Assad was a Baathist, which is to say a fascist.  Fascism is reprehensible, but it is a Western secular idea.  That doesn't make it great, but it also isn't a sectarian Islamic band of jihadist.

Some Syrian rebels are democrats.

Not all by any means.  Some are Sunni jihadists.  Some, Al Queda, are very extreme jihadist.  And in Syria, some are Kurdish nationalist.

We back the Kurds.

The Turks are backing the group that has the Sunni jihadist in it, perhaps because they oppose the Kurds.

Iran was backing the government, as was Russia, which is in no small part why Assad fell.  In its murderous desire to attack Israel, Hamas caused a war that brought Hezbollah in, with both backed by Iran, and they got utterly pounded.

Ukraine has done the pounding on Russia.

So now what?

Well, strong multinational efforts, including frankly a very strong UN peacekeeping force, are in order.  

But of course Donald Trump has already declared for doing nothing.

Doing nothing, is doing something, and that something won't be good for Syria in general, or the Kurds in particular.

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Sunday October 8, 1724. A schism and a reunion.

Upset by the consecration of Cyril VI Tanas as Patriarch of Antioch, Orthodox Patriarch Jeremias III of Constantinople declared Cyril's election to be invalid, excommunicated him, and appointed Sylvester of Antioch.

The division was over Cyril's desire to reunited the Orthodox Church with Rome.  Jeremias' action caused a schism which ultimately lead to the Melkite Greek Catholic Church's uniting with Rome, a branch of Catholicism that has over 1,500,000 members today.

Last edition:

Good Friday, April 7, 1724. Bach's St. John's Passion played for the first time.


Tuesday, September 24, 2024

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

By Sergey Kondrashov - http://www.katagogi.com/LV2009/LebMap.aspx?l=EN, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=23421707

Israel is not "fighting Lebanon".  I've seen that claim made, but it isn't. 

It's striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, which translates as the "Party of God" is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and paramilitary group.  The party does control large sections of Lebanon where Shia is dominant religious group.  

Lebanon itself was carved out of Syria by the French during the French mandate period as it had a majority Christian population.  It's one of the few areas of the Middle East which still does, with Islamic repression over centuries having forced conversions and emigration throughout the Middle East.  Be that as it may, Lebanon is no longer a majority Christian state, and its a mess because of internal strife and division.

That came in due to the conflicts in the region, with the Palestinian refugee population of the 1970s being particularly problematic.  The country fought a civil war that lasted in one form or another from 1975 to 1990.  It's never been stable since.

It's very difficult to see a positive future for Lebanon in any form. That doesn't mean it won't occur, but it's hard to see.  

What can be seen, in my view, is an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon coming in the next week or so.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Thursday, July 10, 1924. Before electronics.

The around the world flight of pilots and aircraft from the U.S. Army flew 560 miles from Aleppo, Syria, to Constantinople, Turkey.

I unfortunately have not tracked a lot of the flight, which had gone from Japan, to China, to Indochina, and on into India.

A glimpse into the pre electronic age (although radio was coming on strong), a short story magazine that ran 196 pages in length.  

The first few pages:



Friday, May 31, 2024

Friday, May 31, 1974. The Golan Heights.

The Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria was signed in Geneva.  Artillery fire stopped at 1:15 p.m.  The United Nations Disengagement Force was created by UN Security Council Resolution 350.  Israel was left with the Golan Heights.

The British Home Office announced the end of the "bread and water" diet as a prison punishment.

Malaysia and China established diplomatic relations.

Vietnam Veterans marched from Boulder to Denver in protest over the war, which the US had of course withdrawn from, and for amnesty for draft evaders and deserters.

Last prior edition:

Monday, May 27, 1974. Memorial Day and Los Seis de Boulder.

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Saturday, April 27, 1974. Aeroflot disater, War of Attrition winds down.

An Aeroflot Il-18 crashed within site of the Leningrad airport, killing all 109 passengers. The Soviet press didn't report on the event, in spite of the hysteria which understandably broke out at the airport.


The last major fighting in the Syrian-Israeli War of Attrition took place.

Last prior edition:

Friday, April 26, 1974. A Portuguese military coup turns towards democracy.


Monday, April 15, 2024

Iron Domes and Chutzpah

“Iran lobbed 200+ missiles at Israel yesterday and we’re really worried that Israel will use this as an excuse to start a war”

What that lacks in intelligence, it makes up for in consistency: no matter what they are forced to endure, it’s somehow always the fault of the Jews.

Fr. Joseph Krupp on Twitter, with the quoted text paraphrasing the meaning of two Arab officials worrying that Israel will respond.

We should note that the Iranian assault was itself a response to the Israeli targeting the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Syria to kill a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.  Attacking an embassy is classically regarded as an act of war.

Of course, Iran and Israel have been in a shadow war for years. 

Israel should not have done that.  But the Iranian response was inept.  Since they engaged in it, there's been a lot of commentary to the effect that Israel should not respond.

Really? To an assault like that?  That's asking for a lot.

Basically, where this is at is here, by analogy.  If Japan, on December 7, 1941, had lost all of its aircraft carriers and none of the ships in Pearl Harbor had been sunk, or even seriously damaged, would Japan have been allowed to come back with, "well there, we certainly taught you a lesson, now let's not overreact".

I doubt it.

Lots of people are hoping Israel doesn't respond, and it might not.  Iran should certainly hope that, as its airborne offensive capabilities have been proven to be worthless against Israel and there's now an open question about what its defense capabilities are like.  If it can't stop a serious Israeli counterstrike, it's fresh meat for the dogs in the neighborhood.  "Oh look. . . Iran is bleeding. . . "

What this also shows is what Ukraine could do if it was provided with enough air defenses to take on Russian strikes. Russia's capabilities in this area really aren't much better than Iran's, and indeed, they're using Iranian drones.

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Monday, February 4, 1974. Patty Hearst kidnapped.

Patty Hearst, a grandchild of newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst, was kidnapped from her apartment in Berkeley, California by the  Symbionese Liberation Army.  She was 19 at the time.

Hearst right during later bank robbery.

The group had first appeared in November when it had murdered Marcus Foster, the black Superintendent of Oakland Public Schools, and wounded his deputy superintendent Robert Blackburn.

The name of the entity, it might be noted, came from this, according to the organization:

The name 'symbionese' is taken from the word symbiosis and we define its meaning as a body of dissimilar bodies and organisms living in deep and loving harmony and partnership in the best interest of all within the body.

It's hard to seem how murdering public school superintendents fits that supposed goal.  Robert Blackburn, who survived his wounds, noted:

These were not political radicals, They were uniquely mediocre and stunningly off-base. The people in the SLA had no grounding in history. They swung from the world of being thumb-in-the-mouth cheerleaders to self-described revolutionaries with nothing but rhetoric to support them.

Emblematic of the times, the goof ball entity was a kind of sort of Communist terrorist cell that rapidly became disenchanted with "the people" after distributions of food, which it had demanded as a ransom in Berkeley, didn't go well.

In April, the group raided a bank in San Francisco, in which Hearst seemed to take part, although she denied doing so willingly. She nonetheless was convicted due to the actions and served two years out of a seven-year sentence before Jimmy Carter, ever the kind man, had her released.  Bill Clinton pardoned her.

In May the organization moved from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, where they got into a shootout at a sporting goods store where Hearst, on guard duty, fired shots.  A shootout a couple of days later at a supposed safe house killed six of them.

Hearst was arrested in September 1975, back at a San Francisco safe house.

Hearst, as noted, was convicted, but she claimed she had never participated willingly, and had been raped and threatened while a captive.  Given the nature of the SLA, that's certainly possible. Early on, however, after her arrest she had said that she comported her thoughts to theirs and was given a choice of being freed or fighting with them, and she elected to fight.

After her release, Hearst married Bernard Lee Shaw, a policeman who was part of her security detail during her time on bail.  They had two children.  He died in 2013.

The Provisional IRA bombed a bus on the M62 Motorway in England, killing nine solders and three civilians, including two children.

The Yom Kippur War resumed, but only as between Syria and Israel, with 500 Cuban soldiers joining a Syrian tank unit.  Fighting resumed in the Golan Heights.

Time Magazine featured Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil on the cover, with the caption "The Impeachment Congress.

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Levantines

I've used the term "Coastal Arabs" here recently to describe the culture that stretches from teh Sinai to Turkey and which includes a lot of Syria.

Distribution of Levantine Arab dialect. By A455bcd9 - Own work based on: Levantine Arabic 2022.svgReferences:Brustad, Kristen; Zuniga, Emilie (2019) "Chapter 16: Levantine Arabic" in Huehnergard, John , ed. The Semitic Languages (2nd ed.), Routledge, pp. 403–432 DOI: 10.4324/9780429025563. ISBN: 978-0-415-73195-9. OCLC: 1103311755.Eberhard, David M.; Simons, Gary F.; Fennig, Charles D. (2022). Jordan and Syria. Ethnologue: Languages of the World. SIL International., CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=128220068

It turns out, the word that I should have used is Levantines.

The region has its own dialect of Arabic, its own (really good) cuisine, and those who genetic history from the region can be identified by their DNA.  

Yes, they are Arabs, but they are not Bedouin. 

Monday, January 1, 2024

Saturday, January 1, 1944. Sort of independence.

Syria became independent theoretically, but the French mandate continued.

The RAF bombed Berlin again.

The War Department was pondering its policies regarding African American soldiers.





From Sarah Sundin's blog:

Today in World War II History—January 1, 1944: Gen. Alexander Vandegrift replaces Gen. Thomas Holcomb as commandant of the US Marine Corps. US penny production switches from steel to a copper & brass alloy.

USC Trojans beat the Washington Huskies 29-0 in the Rose Bowl, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defeated Tulsa Golden Hurricane 20-18 in the Sugar Bowl., the LSU Tigers beat the Texas A&M Aggies 19-14 in the Orange Bow, the Cotton Bowl Classic ended in a 7–7 tie between the Randolph Field Ramblers and the Texas Longhorns.

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Monday, December 17, 1923. Closing in on Mexico City.


The revolution in Mexico looked as if it was about to topple the government.

Subhi Bey Barakat was elected President of the Syrian Federation, a French mandate. He'd be its only president as the state would be succeeded by the State of Syria, also a French mandate, which he'd also be the chief executive of.


Thailand adopted the metric system.

An agreement was reached on the formation of the Imperial Air Transport Company, which soon became Imperial Airways.

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

The largest? The Hamas v. Israel War.

I have now heard over and over in the press that the upcoming Israeli invasion is the "largest" this or that, suggesting that this is the biggest war, or the biggest deployment of troops, in Israel's history.

Is it?

Well, you have to have a sense of history to gauge that.

I've recently been running some items on the Yom Kippur War, which occured 50 years ago, and which brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of war.  That pitted about 400,000 Israeli troops against the armies of Egypt and Syria, plus another 100,000 troops from other regional states.  Right at about 1,000,000 Arab troops contested the Israelis.

Now, in this one, we do hear that 300,000 IDF reservists have been called up, and yes, that's a bunch.  The total number of mass Israeli troops may exceed those that were hastily called up in 1973. We'll see. But the scope of the contest is, so far, smaller.  Indeed, the calling up of the reservists may be in the hopes of keeping it smaller.

In the Six Day War, Israel had 264,000 troops, but only deployed 100,000 of them.  The Arab forces had over 500,000 troops, but only deployed about 250,000 of them.

Israel isn't going to send all of is troops into Gaza.  A lot of those troops were likely called up in order to secure its northern border.  Assuming that it invades Gaza with this model, it certainly will not be Israel's largest war, but it might mean the largest overall manpower size for the IDF in its history.

Not that the threat of this being much larger doesn't exist.  Iran seems intent on making it so.

Wednesday, October 24, 1973. War Powers.

President Nixon vetoed the War Powers Act.  His veto was overridden on November 7.

A second ceasefire between Egypt and Israel went into effect in the Yom Kippur War.  By this point in the war Egyptian gains had been more than reversed.

At the same time, the Soviet Union threatened to deploy its troops to aid Syria, giving a warning to the US to that effect. As a result, the U.S. went to Defcon 3

Kojak premiered.

The day was the first UN World Development Information Day, which coincided with United Nations Day.

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Wednesday, October 10, 1973. Vice President Agnew resigns.

Vice President Spiro T. Agnew resigned as Vice President and then, on the same day, plead no contest to income tax evasion, this baack in the day when such accusations would doom your position in office.


Angew was the son of a Greek immigrant father and an American mother of English background.  Mixed marriages were unusual for those of Greek ethnicity in the first place and even more unusually, he was raised as an Episcopalian rather than as Greek Orthodox.  He served in the Army during World War Two and entered politics thereafter.

His tax troubles lead Maryland to disbar him as "morally obtuse", back when there was such a thing as a state bar that would disbar somebody for being morally obtuse.  He died in 1996.

The USSR began airlifting military equipment to Egypt and Syria.

The Senate passed the War Powers Act.  It'd be vetoed, but Congress over road the veto.

Famed economist Ludwig Heinrich Edler von Mises died in New York at age 92.

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part IX, Late Summer.



September 15, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Vasily Popov, commander of the Russian 247th Guard Air Assault Regiment, was killed in a counter-attack in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia area.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Belarusian President Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes and called upon the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.

The Duma proposed blocking WhatsApp as part of the Kremlin’s effort to control the Russian information space. 

cont:

Pro Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is critically ill.

September 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka near Bakhmut.

September 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Six Ukrainian deputy defense ministers were fired on Monday as part of an ongoing cleanup of corruption in the Ukrainian defense department.

Post Soviet Union Ukraine has been plagued with corruption, as has post Soviet Union Russia.  This is no surprise, as the Soviet system encouraged corruption by its very nature, and so that post Soviet societies would feature a lot of it is to be expected.

Ironically, this fact has led opponents of supporting Ukraine, which is democratic and is fighting a just fight, to cite the corruption as a reason to allow the country to be conquered by Russia, although they don't put it that way.  While the country has featured a lot of corruption, Russia's is now endemic and currently not only that case, but watching modern Russia is a lot like watching Goodfellas in real time.

Following 2013's Euromaiden protest, the country has moved increasingly towards the west and has had a strong desire to join the European Union and NATO.  That is what has, in no small part, brought the current war about, as Putin, a Russian nationalist at heart, is opposed to that and sees Ukraine as a mere Russian province.  Efforts to join NATO have lead to a list of further items Ukraine must address in order to do so, once the war is over, and cleaning up corruption will no doubt continue.

The ISW is giving praise to Ukrainian offensive efforts near Bakhmut, which it cites as having kept Russian forces committed in that area, leaving the Russians unable to reinforce further south.  It's reporting that Russian forces in both areas are suffering severe degradation.

Iran v. Kurds

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed unis to the border with Iraq in an effort to put pressure on Iraq to arrest Kurdish efforts in Iran.

Iran messes heavily in regional conflicts, taking an active pro-government role in Syria for example.  Here, however, the war in Syria and the conclusion of the war in Iraq has led to Kurdish semi autonomy, which has in turn lead to Kurdish activity in northern Iran.

cont:

Azerbaijan v. Armenia

Azerbaijan’s declared an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under Armenian control. Armenian media indicated air raid sirens and mortar fire in the regional capital of Stepanakert had been observed.

Armenian forces recently trained with U.S. forces.

September 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Prime Minister of Poland has announced; "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons".

Poland and Ukraine have been in a dispute over grain, which has been flooding the Polish market as Ukraine's ports have been blocked, even while Poland has been a major supporter of Ukraine's war effort.

In spite of the way it's been portrayed, historically Poland and Ukraine have not gotten along and following World War One fought over their respective borders.  During World War Two, Ukrainian nationalist militias committed acts of genocide against Polish villagers.  The recent Polish support of Ukraine may reflect Polish animosity towards Russia as much as anything else.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul, who is a libertarian with isolationist tendencies, is holding up the most recent funding for Ukraine.

What both of these stories point out is that the slow moving progress of the Ukrainian offensive, while receiving support from some analysts such as those from the ISW, presents real problems in terms of ongoing Western support.  Ukraine's strategy, from those supporting it, is reputed to be a slow moving offensive using artillery to attrit Russian forces, made necessarily in part by a lack of air assets.  That may be correct, but if it is, Ukraine may find itself with decreasing material support from the West including the United States should the U.S. far right gain in Congress.

Wagner is withdrawing from Syria.

Cont: 

German Marder AFV, some of which appear to be beyond prepared Russian lines.

Ukrainian light armor appears to have pushed through Russian lines near Bakhmut, which would be significant, if substantial and correct.  Indeed, the fact that there are reports of this is significant as it would suggest Russian forces must be very downgraded in the area.

American Stryker AFV, some of which have also been reported having passed Russian prepared defenses.

September 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was killed today by a Ukrainian missile/drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's Sevastopol headquarters.

September 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland walked back its earlier statement about not transferring arms to Ukraine, indicating that what was meant that new arms it is acquiring for itself will not be transferred.

September 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

According to ISW, the Ukrainian Army has broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. This is not, however, the final Russian defensive line.

September 25, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove appear to be close to surrounding the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka.

September 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

Azerbaijan v. Armenia

Armenia effectively surrendered, and the subject enclave will be abandoned.  Armenia is blaming Russia for its peacekeeping forces being ineffective.

US v. ISIL

The U.S. announced the capture of ISIL official Abu Halil al-Fad'ani in a raid in northern Syria.

September 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was in fact not killed on the Ukrainian missile strike on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet.

A Russian drone strike cut the ferry ties between Ukraine and Romania.

September 30, 2023

Armenia v. Azerbaijan

Almost the entire population of the ethnic Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, some 100,000 people, have since Azerbaijan seized the region last week.

October 1, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The emergency stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government for 45 days omits funds for Ukraine.

October 5, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian drone attacks now occur inside of Russia daily.  Two Russian cargo jets were destroyed at the Russian air base at Pskov yesterday, with the Russians claiming that the attacks were launched from inside of Russian territory.

Ukrainians have carried out a second commando raid on Crimea.  The Russian navy has pulled out of Sevastopol and dispersed.

October 6, 2023

Syrian Civil War

A drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in the Syrian Homs, killed 80 and wounded 240.  Some civilians were amongst the casualties.

China v. Everyone

A Chinese nuclear submarine is reported to have been caught in a Chinese submarine net last December, resulting in its sinking and the loss of the entire crew.

October 7, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border.  Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has deployed snipers overseas against Wagner forces.

October 8, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated to newsmen last week, "I have to say that Zelensky is acting absolutely appropriately", a surprising statement from a Russian ally.

Hamas v. Israel

Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.

Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons.  Hamas took hostages back into Israel.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part VIII. The high cost of freedom.

Friday, October 6, 2023

Saturday, October 6, 1973. The October War commences.

Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel timed for the Yom Kippur holy day.  The attack oddly commenced at 2:05 p.m.


It would be the largest of the Arab Israeli Wars, and one in which the Israeli Defense Force fared much more poorly than it had previously.  Egypt's goals were limited, involving crossing the Suez Canal, which they succeeded in doing.  Israeli forces would ultimately repulse the invading forces and come very near the Syrian capital of Damascus, but the results allowed the Egyptians to bargain for peace terms with Israel in later years.

Arab forces fared very well at first, catching the IDF off guard.  Syrian advances caused the Israeli government to distribute Israel's small stock of nuclear weapons to is air force in case Arab forces advanced inside Israel itself, making this a non superpower war that came relatively close to becoming a nuclear one.

Friday, September 29, 2023

Saturday, September 29, 1923. Mandates and Floods.

The British Mandate for Palestine went into effect, as did the French Mandate for Syria and Lebanon.

With this, the British Empire, and I'd guess French Empire reached their maximum territorial extents.

The grim news kept coming in on the recent Cole Creek disaster.


Apparently the floods occured almost everywhere in Wyoming, and into Nebraska.