King Donald's War, Part 2. Just a few Marines. . .

 

U.S. Marines land at Da Nang, March 8, 1965.  It was just a few. . and then some airmen. . . and then the perimeter had to be protected. . . and soon, 50,000 U.S. troops were dead.

March 31, 2026

King Donny can't figure out how to get out of his war. The Iranians can't and won't surrender.  The Iranians won't leave the Straits of Hormuz  alone.  The NATO countries, several of which have been threatened by King Donny with the use of military force, have replied to his request for naval assistance with variants of "fuck you and the horse you rode in on" and are perfectly happy to watch the US, which they don't like under Trump, and Israel, which they generally don't like, stew in the fat of Donald's juices.

Faced with this, the more rah rah, let's engage in a Protestant Crusade against Islam crowed, and the more sober military minds who have read history, are causing Marines to be deployed.  Chances are, they aren't equally enthusiastic about deploying them, as the results of that will be a full scale and even more illegal war than the one we're currently in.

The economy, meanwhile, is turning to a steaming pile of shit, like everything else Donald touches.  The stock market is supposedly the only thing the legacy seeking King Donny pays attention to, which probably means that his oligarchic connections are being hurt and calling him up on his cell phone telling him to get out before the wreckage matches that of the East Wing.  King Donny, meanwhile, probably doesn't want to be remembered as the idiot who got 20,000 ground troops or more killed.  So, as of yesterday, he's thinking of surrendering by simply pulling out.

Overnight, the Iranians targeted Diego Garcia with missiles but not reached their targets for one reason or another, including their being intercepted.  Diego Garcia was not previously thought to be within range of Iranian missiles, and it still might not be, given that they didn't hit.  Or it may be, or it may be that Iran has improved the capabilities of their missiles over the last couple of weeks.

Iran is busy destroying Middle Eastern oil infrastructure.  The economic impacts will last for years.

March 21, 2026, cont:

Iran and the US/Israel exchanged attack nuclear facilities today.

March 22, 2026

Trump announced that if Iran does not open the Straits of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will commit a war crime and start to destroy power plants.

This would be flat out an illegal at, it serves no military purpose whatsoever.

March 23, 2026

King Donny claimed this morning that the US and Iran were in productive talks, so he was suspending offensive operations for several day.

Iran called BS on the claim.

Nobody really knows what's going on, but my guess, and it would guess, is that King Donny is going to claim there was a secret deal to end the war and call it over.  My additional guess is that somebody got to him.  Maybe the military, maybe the top (lap) dogs in the GOP, or maybe another oligarch, but somebody.

cont:

Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened.

President Trump’s hopes that an Israeli plan to ignite an internal uprising against Iran’s theocratic government could bring the war to a swift end have so far been dashed.

cont:

Listening to the weekend shows makes it plaint how much trouble Trump is really in.  None of the people you'd expect to be present on all three were present on the two I listened to.  Scott Bessant was on Meet the Press sounding like a complete fool.  Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy drew the short stick for This Week and sounded like he regretted it.

Bessant was downright insulting to the host, even if he sounded like a buffoon doing it.

What's increasingly clear is that sometime yesterday somebody or something got to Trump.  The war isn't going the way he believed it would, and now he want out.  He's just looking for a cover story to get out.  The problem he faces is that none of the cover stories for getting into it will square with that, so he's in a bind.  The strategy being tested is the claim that he made a deal, even if the Iranians are denying  that they're close to making a deal.

Believing that lie won't be too much to ask diehard Trump fans to do.  They'll believe anything.  But it is too much for independents and some not wholly convinced Republicans to do.  The next part of the problem will be that petroleum prices will take months or even years to go down.  That showed up on Meet the Press in which a Trump voter called Trump "a worthless piece of shit".

cont:

Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up. You said, 'Let's do it.'

Trump.

Pete is now the designated fall guy.  He better start looking for a new job.

March 24, 2026

In spite of King Donny's declaration that the United States was in talks with Iran, which Iran denies, as Donny is an outrageous liar, the war continued on yesterday, unabated.

Cont:

According to the NYT, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is pushing Trump to continue the war.

We seem to just be regional suckers to the Middle East.

March 25, 2026

In addition to the Marines already deployed to the Middle East, 1,000 troops of the 82nd Airborne are being deployed to the region, all for a war that King Donny claims was won several days ago.

Pakistan, which it self as been at war recently with Afghanistan, volunteered to host talks between the U.S. and Iran.  The U.S. has agreed to attend, Iran, has not.

Trump claimed yesterday that Iran gave the United States a very big oil related present, but he wasn't going to say what it is.

Um. . . . 

March 27, 2026

King Donny extended his deadline in which for the US to commit an additional war crime by destroying electrical power sites.  He claims negotiations are going well.

Some negotiations probably really are occurring, but it's not clear at all what they are.  As they won't result in an end to an Iranian nuclear program, effectively what the US is doing is looking for a way out a la Paris Peace Accords.

On the other hand, Tehran increased its grip on the Straits of Hormuz yesterday, so the entire story of Iran negotiating may just be another Trump lie.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a real president, visited the Middle East yesterday as his country is helping several Middle Eastern countries counter Iranian drones.

March 28, 2026

The Houthis entered the war by firing ballistic missiles at Israel.

Donald Trump is now babbling on this topic nearly every day, and not making a lick of sense any time he does so.  As if that's not enough, his cabinet lavishes praise on him in a way that will quite frankly be used against their reputations, and that of the country that they purport to serve, forever.

March 30, 2026

The illegitimate administration sent Iran the same list of 15 demands in the form of demands to be accepted to end the war.  Iran told the U.S. to stuff it, and presented its own demands, also pointing out that it doesn't trust the US enough to enter negotiations.

Listening to the weekend shows and other soundings out there, it's increasingly clear that Republicans feel uneasy about the situation developing with King Donny.  A common theme now is, "well, we should have done this years ago, um, and are now, um, and well, we have to see it through".

None of those things are anywhere near true and they know it.

We are getting increasingly close to the commitment of ground troops.  Even some of the stalwarts that apologize for Trump's dementia on a nearly daily basis re now saying that requires Congressional approval.  Well, Trump isn't going to ask for approval.  He's just going to do it, if he does, and he probably is going to.

This is an election season, and those in Congress in the GOP should be made to answer for this illegal delegation of force to a demented octogenarian.

cont:

Reports hold that Russia shared satellite images of Prince Sultan US base in Saudi Arabia with Iran right before their attack that injured our troops. Ukrainian intelligence has confirmed it.

And Trump. . . well he's letting a ship of Russian oil offload in Cuba, which is otherwise being embargoed (blockaded?) by the U.S.

Odd, eh?

March 31, 2026

Iran hit a fully laden Kuwait oil tanker in port in Dubai.

Trump yesterday indicated that he might just abandon the Persian Gulf with the Straits of Hormuz closed.

Republicans desperate to excuse a war that's not going to end soon, and which right now looks as if it'll either require a decades long American ground presence in an illegal war, or an inglorious American retreat, either of which feature a major recession, if not depression, in the near term, are parading a series of bs excuses for what demented Don did.

The reality of it is quite simple.  Bibi wanted to take Iran out while the US could be duped into going along with it.  Only Bibi and Vlad seem to have any pull over King Donny, although for different unknown reasons.  Anyhow, this is a war for Israel, that's what it's for.

The current line is that we've been fighting Iran for 47 years.  No, we haven't been.  Iran has been a bad actor for 47 years, but we haven't been fighting them for nearly five decades.  Moreover, most of Iran's anger with us, as illegitimate and wrong as it is, is vicarious anger over US support for Israel.

I'm not saying that US support for Israel is wholly wrong, but it has frankly been often beyond what it likely should have been, and that's been the case since Israel became a country.  It has a right to exist, but it doesn't have a right to unqualified US support, and support that has not involved American Allies that are in the region, to the the extent which it has.  Anyhow, Iran's hatred of the US is largely due to US support of Israel, which is 100% what this war is about.  Netanyahu saw a chance to take out, he thought, a decades long enemy, and took it.  Unfortunately for him, he forgot about what an unreliable ally the US really is and that Trump's thoughts tend to be farts in windstorms.

The other major claim is that Iran was going to turn into a nuclear power and we needed to stop it.  If that's the case, that was clearly going to involve a ground invasion.  You can't bomb nuclear material into non existence.  Trump may stupidly have thought he could cause the Iranian regime to fall in this fashion, which if so was flat out dumb, but he's not a very advanced thinker and his experience is in real estate, not realpolitik.  He didn't cause an Iranian uprising and he didn't even get the Kurds to move on the government.  

So here we are.

Concluding this war successfully will require a Vietnam War level of military participation and two decades to complete.  At some point Congress will have to get involved.  As Americans have no stomach for such an enterprise, what's much more likely to happen is a largescale conventional invasion of the country after a series of aerial war crimes, followed by substantial US troop deaths, followed by an inglorious withdrawal and retreat.

In other words, we're likely to lose the war.

Not before it expands into the US however.

We have every reason to believe that Iran has sleeper cells in the US. What hasn't happened that much yet, however, are proxy attacks here.  That's coming, and it'll come in more than one form.  We aren't ready for it, and we're not going to get ready for it.  Further, both China and Russia will assist Iran on this where they can get away with it.

Along with that, we're going to see inflation and a recession within the next few months at a level we have no experienced since the 1970s.  We'll be lucky, quite frankly, if we don't experience a depression.

So, welcome to King Donald's Forever War.

cont:

The maximum level of outright stupidity that is constantly demonstrated by this illegitimate administration is really on display today with Pete Hegseth. For example:

The president was clear this morning in his Truth that there are countries around the world who ought to be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. Last time I checked there was supposed to be a big bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that.

This is an illegal war on the part of the US, dumbass, and you don't get to declare war for other countries.

As far as President Trump and boots on the ground, I don't understand why the base wouldn't have faith in his ability to execute on this. Look at his track record.

Seriously? Where to begin.  Cutting spending. . . nope, didn't happen.  Avoid wars. . . nope, didn't happen.  Make America Great Again. . . more like sending it into the dumpster.

What he's shown himself to be really good at is not getting the Epstein files released, although even there, there are enough cracks to raise the question if he was one of the rich men raping teenagers.  It's not proven, but there's enough there to wonder.

cont:

I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,'

'You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us.'

And so, the TACO signals he's retreating.  

Iran, apparently, will be the victor.  People died for nothing whatsoever.  Those serving in the military were made suckers.

As we all were. Everything is more expensive, people are dead.

Cont:

A really sober analysis by Adam Kingzinger

One Chokepoint, $120 Oil, and a Broken Alliance System: What Comes Next in Iran

A breakdown of the economic, diplomatic, and military dimensions of a crisis with no clean exit.

To put it bluntly, we are really up shit creek without a paddle.  At no point since the end of the Cold War have we been in this dire of situation, and it's all due to one demented billionaire.

This is going to end very badly.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 5. Trump's forever war. King Donald's War, Part 1.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 2. Quand les riches font la guerre, ce sont les pauvres qui meurent Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

Quand les riches font la guerre, ce sont les pauvres qui meurent.

Jean Paul Sartre

February 8, 2026.

Russo Ukrainian War

The administration of Demented Don the pretend President, who is going to end the Russo Ukrainian War within 24 hours of his being nominated for President in 2023, and who has ended eight wars but hasn't since he was elected to serve an office he's not constitutionally qualified to hold, has given the warring parties until June to wrap the war up.

By June there's a good chance he'll be in a nursing home pointing out to the nurses where the ballroom will be built.

February 15, 2026

February 28, 2026

United States and Israel v. Iran

Americans are waking up this morning to find that Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu have launched an undeclared, and hence form the U.S. prospective, an illegal war against Iran.  Missile strikes have already hit all over Iran which have been, so far as we can tell, ineffectual, and Iran has already hit back, hitting Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.  

Trump made a late night statement in which he sounded like an inarticulate grade schooler.  The supposed basis of launching the war was that Iran posed a grave threat to the U.S.  Wearing a trucker's cap, the appearance of being a toddler was fully effectuated.

The text of his message was:

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.

Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries.

Among the regime's very first acts was to back a violent takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, holding dozens of American hostages for 444 days. In 1983, Iran's proxies carried out the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut that killed 241 American military personnel.

In 2000, they knew and were probably involved with the attack on the USS Coal. Many died. Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime's proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as US naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lanes.

It's been mass terror. And we're not going to put up with it any longer. From Lebanon to Yemen and Syria to Iraq, the regime has armed, trained and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood and guts.

And it was Iran's proxy Hamas that launched the monstrous October 7 attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal. Something like the world has never seen before.

Iran is the world's number one state sponsor of terror and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested. It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I'll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.

That is why in Operation Midnight Hammer last June, we obliterated the regime's nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. After that attack, we warned them never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons. And we sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried. They wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it again. They wanted to do it, they didn't want to do it, they didn't know what was happening. They just wanted to practice evil.

But Iran refused, just as it has for decades and decades. They rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions. And we can't take it any more. Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas and could soon reach the American homeland.

Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.

For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. We are going to annihilate their navy. We are going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces and no longer use their IEDs, or roadside bombs, as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans.

And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It's a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon. This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces. I built and rebuilt our military in my first administration.

And there is no military on Earth even close to its power. Strength or sophistication. My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement likely, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now, we're doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission.

We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm's way. And we trust that with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail.

We have the greatest in the world. And they will prevail.

To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or, in the alternative, face certain death. So lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.

Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.

This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.

May God bless the brave men and women of America's armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.

Promising the Iranians freedom (while working at home to take it from Americans), is a pretty big promise that can only be effectuated by actually invading the country.  If he's hoping to spark a domestic revolution, he's delusional.  

Some other commentators:

Task & Fury:

US launches ‘major combat operations’ against Iran

American and Israeli warplanes bombed Tehran Saturday as Trump promised to “obliterate” Iran’s missile program in Operation Epic Fury.

Phillips O'Brien:

The USA And Israel Have Started Bombing Iran: A Primer

What Do We Know, What Should We Be Asking?, For What Should We Be Watching

Cont:

Apparently Israel attempted to directly take out the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the President of Iran, Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, crossing a line that warring states do not cross.  Targeting the actual head of a foreign country is extremely rare, although the US did, unsuccessfully, with Khadafi.  

This is a profoundly bad move.

The thought probably was that if the regime was decapitated, it'd spark a revolution  Maybe it would have, but it failed and now Iran will have every incentive to target Netanyahu and Trump.  I suspect that Netanyahu would be extremely difficult for Iran to target but Trump, while difficult, would be less so.  US leaders have nearly been hit before in a political targeting, that being Truman, and perhaps arguably both Kennedys.  

The Allies didn't target Hitler during World War Two.  The Nazis didn't target any Allied leader.  The Allies didn't target the Japanese leadership.  The US and RVN never attempted to kill the heads of North Vietnam.  This was a really bad move.

March 1, 2026

United States and Israel v. Iran

Raisi was in fact killed in a raid that clearly was calculated to decapitate the Iranian regime and which hit other key Iranian figures.  Cheering could be heard in Tehran when the news broke.

The war is continuing on, however.  And the big question is now what.  The U.S. and Israel have committed both countries, and more particularly the US, to a war of regime change, something Republicans were supposedly against in the post Bush era.  The Iranian regime is a bad one, to be sure, but in order to topple it, now, its going to require boots on the ground.

Rest assured, none of those boots will be filled by Trumps.

So here we have an interesting set of existential issues. Trump has committed the country to a war illegally, and completely contrary to what the MAGAs claim they stand for.  The Iranian regime is, and let's be clear, still is, a terrible one and has been since the 1970s, but no prior Western nation sought to topple it by armed force. And the US and Israel have killed the head of state, which opens up retaliatory moves of the exact same character.

Given Trump's mental state, moreover, it's really unlikely that any of this was his idea. So whose was it?

Mad King Donny, as an aside, was posting stupid tweets.

Wars end, when the party that was attacked decides they are over.  The Iranian regime has little incentive to end this one.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 1. The Return of the Neo Con Edition.

Labels: 2020s, 2026, Civil Unrest, Donald Trump, Greenland, Harriet Hageman, Iran, law, Monroe Doctrine, Neo Conservatives, Nicolás Maduro, Petroleum, The Second Trump Administration, Venezuela, War, Wars and rumors of wars

Old tools.

 

430,000-Year-Old Wooden Tools Are the Oldest Ever Found

The finding, along with the discovery of a 500,000-year-old hammer made of bone, indicates that our human ancestors were making tools even earlier than archaeologists thought.

Yeoman's First Law of History at work again.

And, frankly, a discovery that isn't very surprising at all.

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 111th Edition. Letting Healthcare Fail, How War Really Works, Those Epstein Files, Calling names, Bear Care.

Letting healthcare fail.

No democratic nation has every taken away a social benefits program after extending it.  It's simply too difficult.

The Republicans have just done that in health care.

They know this is going to be popular, so they've very clearly received their marching orders.  It's all Joe Biden's fault, like everything else.  The truth is much more complicated.

The United States is the only first would nation on EArth that doesn't have national healthcare. It's part of what depresses the American standard of living and why, in spite of what we seem to think, we aren't exactly admired lifestyle and standard of living wise by any other advanced nation. Frankly, most of the rest of the developed world thinks we're a bunch of ignorant rednecks, a view that has a lot behind it, frankly.  Donald Trump, in one of his demented rages, wondered the other day why Norwegians don't come here as opposed to Somalians.

Why on Earth would they?

Anyhow, the dirty little secret of the ACHA, termed Obamacare, which was Romneycare before that, is that it was probably supposed to be transitional in the first place.  It was the best the Democrats could do under the circumstances, and the thought is that it would probably phase away, I suspect, into bonafide national health care.  The Republicans took their typical approach to the advancement of social programs, which was to complain and do nothing.  We've now had the ACHA for fifteen years.

The ACHA system really came under strain during COVID, and that in turn lead to the premium subsidies, a big advance towards a national health care system. Those are now coming off, which will cause a huge spike in premiums, followed by a massive loss of coverage, much of which will fall right on the backs of diehard Trump loyalist.  By next year quite a few of those people will be thinking that Bernie Sanders is the greatest politician of all time.

The destruction of the ACHA is a goal of NatCons, who really don't like a government role in such things at all.  Cassie Cravens did an op ed which edged up on really voicing their view recently, and while I really don't like Cravens' articles, I'll give her some credit for that one.  It's really undeniable that welfare programs create a dependence that is existentially problematic.

That really dealt with welfare more than healthcare, however, and here a real distinction can be made.  We'll look at that a bit below, but what we'd first note is that all the GOP howling about "it's Joe Biden's fault" can't cover up the fact that they did utterly nothing for fifteen years. They don't have any real plan at all.

Indeed, the real concept is that removing the subsidies will cause the ACHA to fail, reverting the situation to the status quo ante.  That's what they want.  Yes, that'll mean that a lot of people will be uninsured, but they really don't care.  Somehow, the magic of the marketplace is supposed to work all this out. 

It won't.

The law of unintended consequences works pretty strongly in areas like this, and the net result is likely to be large-scale populist outrage and a shifting towards the left.  Trump's already screwed farmers in the country with his tariffs, and more than a few of them will go into the polling stations in November 2026 wearing MAGA hats and then vote for Democrats.  People who start watching family members die due to no healthcare coverage, and that will happen, will react more strongly.  When the Democrats come back into power, which will start in 2026, and complete in 2028, they'll likely create a national healthcare system based on Medicare.  

In the interim three years the GOP is going to do nothing.

Doing something, frankly, is warranted and would not be all that difficult.  A single payer system could be created but which would bid the system out decadally to carriers.  The system wouldn't cover everything, just necessary medical.  Yes, it'd be paid for with taxes, but taxes graduated so they wealthy would bear more of them, which they should in general now.

Every other advanced nation in the world does this.

 A few thoughts, or reminders, on war.

The Trump administration is beating the war drum and in fact pretending that enforcing American laws on drug smuggling is the same thing as a war.

It isn't, in fact that's criminal in and of itself, but because this is the direction the administration is clearly going, there's some things that should be kept in mind.

The first thing is that if you treat something like a war, it might become one.  That raises this:

Yeoman's Fifth Law of History.  When a war ends is when the defending party decides that it is over.

When nations start a war, they have a "war aim."  But that aim rarely determines when a war ends.  Wars are over when the party that is attacked decides that the war is over.

The Germans, during World War Two, thought that the war in the West was over when they knocked France out of the war, but the British did not believe that, so it did not end. In the East, the Germans thought advancing to the Volga meant victory over the USSR.  The Soviets, however, had no such concept so the war went on.  Conversely, the Imperial Russians in World War One gave up long before they were really defeated.  They just gave up.  Wars end when the party that was attacked decides that they are over.

Americans have long had the view that, because we're Americans, we're the toughest on the block and we'll win.  The wars we've fought since World War Two have shown that isn't the case.  Indeed, they've shown we're perfectly capable of being beaten, and moreover, our greatest weakness is that we get tired of war pretty easily.

Right now we're picking on Venezuela, which is not an admirable nation, but what if we go in?  Are we going to occupy the country until it becomes a democratic state?  What do the Venezuelans think of that.  Some of them probably don't like the idea much, and they'll resist it.  Are we prepared to be in the country for a decade, two decades, three?

Note also that in our last several major wars, and this would be a major war, the US has been very careful to pretend they aren't wars.

Yeoman's Fourth Law of History.  War changes everything

This is something that somehow is repeatedly forgotten by those who advocate wars.  I'm not a pacifist by any means, but it should be remembered that wars change absolutely everything, about everything.  No nation goes into a war and comes back out the same nation.  People's views about various things change radically due to war, entire economies are dramatically changed, and of course the people who fight the war are permanently changed.

We've discussed this here from time to time in regards to specific topics, but this law is so overarching that the impact of it can hardly be exaggerated.  Every time a nation enters a war, it proposes, in essence, to permanently alter everything about itself.

It'd behoove us to remember that our association with wars of choice is not a happy one.  For that matter, our association with wars in general isn't all that happy.

World War Two, nearly fondly looked back upon now, created so much social destruction that we've never really recovered from it.  While I've done a pretty poor job of defining it, nearly every single social ill Americans face today was amplified, if not created, due to the Second World War.  People like to imagine that the war gave us a generation of stalwart self sacrificing men, and there's a lot of truth to that.  It also, however, gave us a generation of men who crawled into the bottle and never came back out, and who were never able to really recover from having had their youth destroyed and every single value of a decent society made a mockery of.

We don't think much about the Korean War anymore, but the Korean War acclimated us to the concept of getting into big wars without a declaration of war, something we'd never done before.  That lead to Vietnam, which destroyed the American military and which helped create the drug problem we're dealing with now.  The Vietnam War was directly linked to the widespread use of all sorts of narcotics in the US which we've never been able to get a handle on.

What the impacts are of simply killing drug smugglers on the seas are isn't known yet, but we're already suffering from the impacts of exposing too many people to militarized violence.  It'd serve us well to remember that two of the most infamous killings of the 1960s were committed by Marine Corps veterans.  The Oklahoma City bombing was committed by an Army veteran.  People trained to kill, can kill more easily, particularly if they've already killed.

There are also real dangers to teaching an entire society that killing is the answer to problems.  Sen. Tom Cotton is running around doing that right now, in regard to boat murders, but where does it end?  If it's okay to kill suspected drug smugglers on the sea, why isn't it on the block?

That, unfortunately, feeds right into the paranoia that some on the very far right have been backing for years.  In the US crime is at an all time low, and it's been declining for decades.  Blowing up boats and getting young men, and women, used to extrajudicial killing isn't going help that trend to continue.

Every single human vice finds massively amplified expression during wartime, not just killing.  Soldiers at war will invariably, to some degree, engage in rape, theft and drug and alcohol use. There are no exceptions to this whatsoever.  The U.S. military already has internal problems with drugs and rape, the former being a problem that every military has had always, and the latter a feature of the increased number of women in the service.  War will make every single vice worse, and then that gets taken home.

Yeoman's Fifth Law of History.  When a war ends is when the defending party decides that it is over.

When nations start a war, they have a "war aim."  But that aim rarely determines when a war ends.  Wars are over when the party that is attacked decides that the war is over.

The Germans, during World War Two, thought that the war in the West was over when they knocked France out of the war, but the British did not believe that, so it did not end. In the East, the Germans thought advancing to the Volga meant victory over the USSR.  The Soviets, however, had no such concept so the war went on.  Conversely, the Imperial Russians in World War One gave up long before they were really defeated.  They just gave up.  Wars end when the party that was attacked decides that they are over.

Every war the US has entered following the Korean War, which was a genuine emergency which we entered not knowing how it would come out, has been done with the concept that we were so dominant that nobody could defeat us.  Our track record is pretty poor that way.  In Korea, we were fought to a stalemate by the Red Chinese who had just come out of over two decades of civil war and which should not have been a match for a first world military.  In Vietnam, we did even worse and while our battlefield performance was good up until 1968, after that the service started to crumble.  We proved to have no staying power in Afghanistan and Trump surrendered to the Taliban.

The thing is here that we're dealing with criminal organizations, not real foreign armies, so far.  We've beaten organized crime before, but through dedicated law enforcement. The thing we've never beaten, however, is the existence of organized crime that seeks to fuel illicit desires. That is, the mafia is a shadow of its former self, but drugs and prostitution, two of its main sources of income, are as prevalent as ever.

The Trump interregnum seems to think that if you kill the middleman, the smugglers, this problem goes away.  It won't.  It just shifts to new trafficking routes. It might think that going right after the source will do it.  There's a little support for that view, as that's basically what Mussolini did to the mafia during his fascist rule of Italy, but we really don't know that.  If you start hitting drug manufacturing in Venezuela, you pretty much have to do it in Columbia and Mexico as well.  That's a pretty big task, particularly given our long border with Mexico.

And you have to accept that at some point, those you are trying to kill fight back.

We haven't really experienced that for a very long time, perhaps since the Punitive Expedition of 1916, but we're living in a much more fluid world than we did even a decade ago. The North Vietnamese were not going to hit back, even if they could.  But we have already seen an upset Afghani hit back.  And the conditions for doing just that are presently ideal.

The Trump Administration likes to pretend its ended nine wars.  What it has done iis made a lot of enemies, and a lot of those enemies are pretty smart.  Why wouldn't Iran make use of the current situation in the US?  Why wouldn't Venezuela, or the drug cartels.  Massive domestic reaction would occur, but that would practically be part of the point.  Conditions are ideal for Iran to engage in a false flag operation in the US.

Conditions are also ideal for Russia to do that.  Russia has a proven track record of manipulating US information and elections.  It's just approved of the Trump admin's strategic plan, which would give us pause.  Getting us bogged down in a South American war would really serve their interests, and would be frighteningly easy to do.  The same is true for China, or North Korea.

Chickenhawks.

One of the most pronounced trends in my life has been watching men in high office commit the country to war when they never served themselves.

This isn't completely true, if I consider every President who has been in my office during my lifetime.  Kennedy, for example, had certainly seen war.  But after Jimmy Carter things really changed.

People have come to admire Ronald Reagan as some sort of superhero.  He was quite  hawkish and deserves a lot of genuine credit for bringing the Cold War to a successful conclusion.  He was a cavalry officer in the Army Reserve prior to the Second World War, but served as an actor for the Army during the war.  

Not exactly John Ford.

Be that as it may, his role was his role, but one thing I wish he'd never done was to introduce the snappy salute into the Oval Office. The President is a civilian, not a soldier, and that lousy habit has been around every since.  

Anyhow, George Bush I had been in the Navy in the Second World War, and his son had been a Texas National Guard pilot.  George Bush II, however, really brought Dick Cheney into prominence, and Cheney had been in divinity school during the Vietnam War.  

Hmmm. . . 

Barack Obama  had, of course, never been in the service, but I wouldn't have expected him to be.  He's too young to have lived during a time of conscription. 

Neither Biden or Trump are, however.  No service there.  Trump had shin splints, we're told.

Trump seems to have a love hate relationship with war.  On some occasions he appears to genuinely abhor it, but at the same time he's having people murdered on the seas.  Some of that may have to do with an oddly narrow worldview.  We know that he likes money and women. That seems to be about it.

He does seem to abhor drugs.  That may mean the one thing he's okay killing over is that topic, although his recent pardon of a major drug runner raises a question about that.

Epstein

View those files yet?

No, you haven't, as they still haven't been released.

The Democrats have released some materials, however, from the Epstein materials, including a photo of Trump with some young women.  Their faces are blocked out, so you can't really tell how young they are, or for that matter, who they are.  Other materials are just weird, including photos of sex toys, and then this:

Demonizing people

We've really entered a period of full blown racist name calling like I've never seen in my entire lifetime.  It's now openly the case that Trump and some of his cronies say things that are blatantly racist.

Nobody seems to be willing to put a stop to it by calling it out.

Bear Care.

One of the interesting things going on in MAGA land is that in Wyoming, where the MAGAs now control  the legislature (we're always behind the curve) there's starting to be some real pushback. As the MAGAs pushback on the pushback, people's real views start to come out.

The Wyoming Department of Health, seeing that the Republican controlled Congress is going to let a huge number of Wyomingites lose their health insurance coverage, came up with an emergency coverage plan.  It'd cover things like car wrecks and bear attacks.  Because it covers bear attacks, they dubbed it Bear Care.

The Wyoming Freedom Caucus, which might as well be called the Leopards Won't Eat My Face Party, is opposed to it.  

Well of course they are. . . leopards won't eat my face, right?

One of the big wheels in the WFC is John Bear, ironically, who was interviewed on his views, which demonstrate he doesn't really see a separation between church and state being what most would.  That puts him, and therefore perhaps the WFC, squarely in the New Apostolic Reformation camp, something very much outside of the traditional Protestant mainstream, and even more outside of the Wyoming mainstream.

Anyhow, I think Bear Care is a good idea.

Last edition:

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 110th Edition. Ballooning ballrooms and murder on the sea.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, 2025 White House Vandalization, Chuck Gray, Donald Trump, Eric Barlow, Kristi Noem, law, Mark Gordon, Pete Hegseth, Venezuela, White House, Zeitgeist

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 6. The Don't Know Much About History Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

 

When a war breaks out, people say: "It's too stupid; it can't last long." But though a war may well be "too stupid," that doesn't prevent its lasting. Stupidity has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves.

Albert Camus, The Plague.

And so, we have the spectacle of a dipshit who never served his country trying to negotiate a peace with a former spy, who served his in that capacity, while ignoring the leader of a country that's put up a titanic fight against an invasion for the past two years.

And we're going to do it on American soil that once belonged to the Russian Empire.

What could go wrong?

August 10, 2028

Russo Ukrainian War

Predictable, and quite correct:

KYIV REJECTS CEDING TERRITORY

Ukraine also demanded that Europe be included, which it should be since the United States has ceded its status as a serious nation.

Regarding this meeting, the BBC noted:

Trump announced the 15 August meeting on social media and it was later confirmed by a Kremlin spokesperson, who said the location was "quite logical" given Alaska's relative proximity to Russia.

Nowhere in Alaska is close to Moscow, or Washington D.C. 

August 11, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Sunday that Israel “has no choice but to finish the job and complete the defeat of Hamas.”

On Gaza, Wyoming Congressman Harriet Hageman did the following:

Reinforcing House Republicans' Commitment to Israel

On Thursday, I joined Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) and 14 of our House Republican colleagues in sending a letter to Treasury Secretary Bessent, urging his department to review whether Ireland’s proposed boycott of Israel violates U.S. anti-boycott laws. As you may know, the Irish government recently introduced legislation aimed at prohibiting the import of goods and services originating from territories under Israeli “occupation.” This proposal aligns with the global Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which seeks to economically isolate Israel. These policies not only promote economic discrimination but also introduce legal uncertainty for U.S. companies operating in Ireland. Under Section 999 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, or the Ribicoff Amendment, the Treasury Department is required to maintain a list of countries that condition commercial activity on participation in unsanctioned international boycotts. Countries on this list trigger specific tax reporting requirements and potential penalties for U.S. individuals and businesses involved in certain activities within those jurisdictions. Our letter urges Secretary Bessent to investigate whether Ireland meets the criteria for inclusion on this list, ensuring that U.S. companies are aware of their legal obligations and protected from unintended exposure. As your representative, I remain firmly committed to combating antisemitism and standing up for our Jewish communities both here at home and around the world.

This came before Israel's announcement that it was going to invade and occupy Gaza. The war in Gaza is demonstrating Yeoman's Fifth Law of History pretty ably.  Whatever a person thinks of the initial Israeli action, Israel can't find a way to end the war.  The current idea is obviously to completely occupy the Gaza Strip and then hope that some Arab nations are willing to turn it over to a non Hamas entity.  There's a fair amount of desperation in that concept.

Also, at this point, Israel has leveled Gaza completely and whatever the original justifications for the invasion were, and Israel had after all sustained a terrible terrorist attack, it's now gone too far.

Russo Ukrainian War

Meet the Press and Face the Nation were interesting on this in that they had guests who seemed tapped into the meeting that will occur this Friday in Anchorage.

Lindsey Graham, who just played golf with Trump, claimed the VP was really tapped into events and reiterated the "exchange of territory" line that Trump had earlier.  Ukraine's ambassador to the US was on Face the Nation and noted that the territory of Ukraine is described in its constitution and nobody has the authority inside the Ukrainian government to negotiate it away.  Basically, that'd be like negotiating Texas away, which while negotiating Texas away might be a good idea, it's illegal.

A fair question, fwiw, is why poor Alaska, with its early Russian heritage, has to suffer through this?

Church of St. Nicholas, Old Believers Russian Orthodox, Nikolaevsk Alaska.

Well, we can hope for the best, and should in fact pray for it.

And who knows, maybe the crush of the press in Anchorage, which frankly isn't that nice of town, will cause them to relocate to remote Nikolaevsk where they can be in seclusion.  Maybe a bored Vladimir Putin will visit the Church and become an Old Believer, and we'll cease to hear from him.

Maybe.

Shoot, maybe Trump will too.  As a serial polygamist with a string if invalid marriages, perhaps he'll live his days out as a monk.  Melania, who after all is an immigrant, can return to her native land.

Maybe.

By the way, I  hope Trump brings this idea up:

Reunification of the Aleutians: A strategic proposal for the Commander Islands

In this op-ed, Lt. Col. Jeffery M. Fritz proposes the US buy the Commander Islands from Russia in order to better monitor Chinese subs.

Yes, this idea is bat shit crazy, but then, Trump likes bat shit crazy land ideas. First it was Greenland, which doesn't want to be part of the US, but which Trump was threatening with forced annexation.  Then it was Canada. Then it was Gaza.  So why not set his sights on the Kurils?

The Commander Islands are right off the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula and there's no earthly way that the Russians would go for this.  That'd be half the fun.  Boris would have to deal with the demanding demented Trump and the rest of us could watch the goofball fun.

Cont:

There will be some changes in land ... Russia has taken some very prime territory. They've taken largely ocean -- in real estate we call it oceanfront property. That's always the most valuable property.

Trump's frame of reference is amazingly narrow.  He looks at everything like a real estate developer. 

cont:

US Domestic Strife.

Trump ordered 800 National Guardsmen to deploy to Washington, D.C., on Monday.  There's utterly no need to do so.

He also threatened other cities with the same.

Trump orders National Guard to deploy to Washington, DC

August 14, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump is reportedly going to offer Putin a rare earth minerals deal for Russia in Alaska if Russia ends the war in Ukraine.

WTF?

August 15, 2025.

Russo Ukrainian War

A headline in the CST:

Land swap deal with Russia would be illegal in Ukraine

I've already noted that on one of these threads.

By the way, the ICC has an arrest warrant out for Putin. 

This day, of course, will be marked by international war criminal Vlad Putin meeting convicted felon Donald Trump.  In normal times, both of these men would be people that you wouldn't read about.  

Trump has been campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize even though there's not to his credit to warrant it.  Having promised originally to end the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours of being nominated for President, and then as soon as he was elected, he hasn't been able to effect the peace process at all. For that matter, Gaza, where he claimed credit for peace, is about to be re-invaded by Israel.

Trump fancies himself a great negotiator, but all he really is, is a large-scale real estate developer who was born into wealth.  Indeed, it's frequently asserted that while being born into the middle class means that its almost impossible to fall out of it permanently, family wealth of the wealthy simply doesn't last.  Seventy percent of wealthy families lose their wealth by the second generation and 90 percent of families lose their wealth by the third generation, or so its claimed (there are those who outright dispute this claim).

Trump is, as is often noted, the descendant of German immigrant Frederick Trump, a Lutheran Bavarian who had to leave the country after having returned to it after marrying fellow Bavarian Elizabeth Christ due to his failure to perform mandatory military service.  He became wealthy in the US, wealth inherited by his father, Fred Trump, who built it further, and on to Donald Trump.  Nobody really knows how wealth Donald Trump is, but he demonstrates all the classic traits of those who inherit wealth and then lose it.  Having said that, he's the third generation, and he's wealthy.

And he caters enormously to the wealthy.

He also is deeply amoral and doesn't grasp the world beyond transactions.  He seemingly is unable to understand the world beyond that which means in matters of war and peace, and diplomacy, he's singularly poorly suited to engage in it.  He's likely to approach this whole thing as a land deal.

Indeed, if early reports are correct, he'll likely propose land swaps between Ukraine and Russia, which Ukraine cannot legally do, and they are not even at the table, and he'll grant Russia minerals concessions in Russia.  If Russia agrees, he'll try to force those down on Ukraine.  The minerals concessions, whatever they are, will be disavowed by some future administration.

August 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump files all the way from Washington D.C.

Putin all the way from Moscow.

Conference already over, and we still have a war.

Is there somebody who actually still takes this clown's promises seriously?

Some history (not that Trump would appreciate it).

New Yorker Theodore Roosevelt negotiated the end of the Russo Japanese War, from the US, from August 9, 1905, through August 30, 1905.

But then, Roosevelt was a genuine article.

August 16, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Volodymyr Zelenskyy will fly to Washington D.C. to meet with Trump on Monday.

I wonder if J. D. Vance will be available to berate him for not wearing a suit?

August 17, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump had stated "we're close to a deal", but leakers have provided Putin's demands, which basically amount to a complete surrender.  Ukraine cedes territory, including presently unoccupied territory, and Russia gives a "security guaranty".

That's not going to happen.

What needs to happen is to find a way to bring Russia to its knees, but of course Donny is a Putin fanboy, which makes that difficult.

Military Occupation of Washington D.C.

3 states sending 700 National Guard troops to DC

At least 700 National Guardsmen will be sent to Washington, D.C., nearly doubling the number of troops already activated in the capitol.

Cont:

A Trump tweet would appear to place Trump pathetically fully in the Putin camp today:

Basically this means Ukraine can end the war by surrendering, to the extent its capable of being deciphered.  

If Trump was a drinking man, which he's not, this would look like a drunk tweet.

August 18, 2025.

US Domestic Strife.

Some National Guardsmen in D.C. are going to be issued arms.

South Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia are supplying National Guardsmen to the Trump municipal takeover.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's president and the heads of various European states will be in D.C. today following Trump's failed meeting with Putin.  It'll be a momentous day, no matter what.

Apparently Giorgia Meloni will be one of those present. A populist herself, but an intelligent one, I suspect she might be the one person in the room capable of calling Trump a dumbass to his face and Trump not being able to handle it.

Meloni with Trump in the tacky room.

Marco Rubio, whose political career is pretty much now deservedly in the toilet, was sent to all the weekend shows to work on spin for the Trump diplomatic failure.

US v. al-Shabab

The US has been carrying out air strikes against al-Shabab in Somalia.

April 19, 2025

And again, the talks were one single day.

Wars don't end with one day talks.

April 20, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Donald Trump indicated that U.S. troops won't be sent to Ukraine as part of a post war force guaranteeing the nation's security.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 5. Oh oh, it didn't work. Now What? The Pearl Harbor Edition.

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