Wednesday, October 18, 2023
Wednesday, August 9, 2023
Tuesday, August 8, 2023
Saturday, July 8, 2023
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.
June 6, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.
The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.
June 7, 2023
Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.
June 8, 2023
The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.
June 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.
Sudanese Civil War
Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.
June 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.
The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.
June 13, 2023, cont.
Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol. 40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.
Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.
June 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.
This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.
Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure. The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly. Both sides are taking heavy casualties.
June 23, 2023
Russia Civil War?
This is odd:
Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation
Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.
Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.
June 23, 2023, cont
Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.
This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.
June 23, cont
Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.
June 24, 2023
Russian Civil War
Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name. Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:
As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.
The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.
I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.
This leaves Prigozhin now way out.
Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.
June 24, cont:
Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.
Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.
One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.
Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?
June 25, 2023
Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War
This bizarre drama seems to have played out.
Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.
He better sleep with one eye open.
There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.
His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.
The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.
June 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
June 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.
Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus. This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion. Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north. It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.
ISW, on this, reports:
ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist. For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.
Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.
Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors. It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway. Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin. ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.
June 28, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.
This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet. If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on. If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.
ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.
Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.
June 29, 2023
Russian Civil War
General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.
June 30, 2023
Chinese Balloon
The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.
Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.
Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War
A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.
Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.
This now seems unlikely. One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird. What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?
Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.
Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.
Syrian Civil War
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23
There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.
If so, Russia is really playing with fire. Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all.
It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\
July 2, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War
Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.
July 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.
Israel/Palestinians
Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.
July 5, 2023
Israel/Palestinians
Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.
July 6, 2023
Russian Civil War
Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.
US v. ISIL
Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.
July 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.
The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine. This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.
Last prior edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
Ack. War reporting by people who know nothing about the military. Armored losses in Ukraine.
Russia releases video of captured German and U.S. tanks
The also destroyed some Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicles, which is absolutely nobody's idea of a tank, at least not anybody with any knowledge of armored vehicles.
That some M2 Armored Fighting Vehicles would be destroyed or captured was inevitable and really no big deal in and of itself. It's an armored personnel carrier, basically, and they are always vulnerable as they are not heavily armored. It's an exceptionally capable armored personnel carrier, but not a tank.
The Ukrainians destroyed a Russian T-90M the other day. It's the most advanced Russian tank.
And this is also no big deal. It's one tank.
And here's the thing
A lot of armor gets destroyed in a peer to peer conflict. The Russians have lost an inordinate number of tanks. . . quite a few to other Russian tanks in Ukrainian service. That's significant. The Ukrainians have lost some Leopard 2s and they will lose more. Right now, those losses aren't significant, but if they become numerous, they will be, which may point to one or more things if it occurs.
If they lose M1 Abrams, even a handful, that will be significant.
Same with British Challengers, and South Korean K2s.
And that's because all three of those tanks are first-rate modern battle tanks, whereas, in my view, the Leopard 2 is second or third rate.
And, another thing. Ukraine is attempting a peer to peer offensive against an army larger than its own, without Ukraine having air superiority. That's hard in and of itself. There's no guaranty that they'll pull it off. We should hope they do, but victory, and certainly not cheap quick victory, is not assured. The Ukrainians were begging for F16s, which they ultimately received, but probably too late to be of real use.
We probably see why now. In order to really be assured of advancing, they need air superiority. We should have supplied them with F16s earlier. And we likely should have supplied them with A10s as well. If A10s, a lot of which are now on maneuvers in Europe, are too vulnerable to be used in Ukraine, they're certain not a viable NATO weapon now in any event.
So where are we at?
We don't know. Offensives do not move at the speed of Le Mans. This offensive could be proceeding at the pace that it should. But the Ukrainians face a tough strategic and tactical situation. They need to gain a lot of ground in this offensive in order for it to matter. And they might not be able to, even if they gain ground. If they don't, that may be just because of the situation they faced, or may be because they were left resource short.
Hopefully that will not be the case.
Friday, May 26, 2023
Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVII. Aging, Russian military culture, Cinematic explortation of the 60s and 70s, The King of Canada.
Older America.
The median age of Americans is now 38.8, a figure brought up from last decade's 37.2 due to the obvious advance in aging of the Baby Boomers and the decline in the birth rate.
This is not a surprise, nor a disaster, contrary to how it seems to be sometimes portrayed. The median will obviously advance into the 40s shortly.
This brings up this next item, from the Adam Smith blog:
Older World
Fertility rates and the conflict with the liberal vision
That headline wouldn't seem to make sense at first, but it actually does in context.
One of the things that people are wringing their hands about is the declining birth rate all over the world.
This brings up piles of incorrect analysis and ignored facts. In the short term, by which we mean very short term, you can find plenty of pundits, often of the environmentalist inclination, still giving Malthusian warnings that we're about to breed ourselves into oblivion. In fact, the data shows that in most regions of the glob, the trend is reversing, and in some very much reversed.
Which brings up the next example of hand wringing. Conservatives at first, but now liberals as well, are worried about the demographic death of entire societies. Some countries are now at the point where they're doing something that hasn't been done for eons, which is to take official measures to encourage couples to have children.
The Adam Smith institution isn't worked about it. They state:
This past century has included glorious events - the economic liberation of women for one. The result of that freedom and liberty is fewer children. Oh well, that’s just what humans want to do with their freedom and liberty.
It’s therefore the politics that needs to change, nothing else. For the people have spoken in their most intimate acts and decisions.
It might well be true that some don’t like that aggregate result, the society that results from freedom. But bully for the complaint, not the acts.
And there's a lot to that statement.
Frankly, almost all the angst over declining birth rates is misplaced. Some of it isn't, but much of it is. We're about to enter an era in which there will be much reduced employment in advanced societies, for one thing. Another is that frankly, societies with smaller populations are much nicer to live in, something that politicians in the US don't seem to grasp. Lots of countries passed the level in which they were really nice to live in some time ago, including for that matter much of the US. An overall declining population reverses that.
And it doesn't cause economic disaster, as so often predicted.
At any rate, no matter how a person feels about it, what Adam Smith notes is in fact the case. Reversing the trend at the present time is darned near impossible. I think it will reverse, or stabilize, but not during my lifetime. Probably when, for example, Europe reaches an overall population below 200,000,000, and North America's is about the same. That's quite a ways off.
I'm not commenting, I'd note, on the moral aspects of this, which is in fact an aspect of it. But in an era in the West, at least, that large sections of the population can no longer actually tell what is naturally male and female, and we're back to the era in which "science" supports a societal movement that's wrong, much like it once did with Eugenics, race science, and many other now despised movements of the past that claimed scientific basis, we're probably not going to see much progress in this area, whatever progress would mean.
Speaking of a country with a declining population, and a tradition of baby bonuses, we have Russia, which gives us this. . .
Field Wife
Not really a surprise.
'Field Wife': Officers Make Life Hell For Women In Russia's Military, A Female Medic Says
As with all things Russian military, pretty horrific, but with long-standing precedence in the Russian military.
We have a long paused thread on women in armed forces which will be unpopular, but we'd start off with this. Mistreatment of women in any military is very common. The conditions are prefect for it.
They're also perfect for giving rise to temptations that are hard to address and are embarrassing to address when they arise. The U.S. Armed Forces have been working on this for decades, presenting it mostly as a male abuser on female victim situation, which is large true, but it wasn't all that long ago that the Marines had to come in and order female Marines to quit posting nude photos of themselves on line, such as a photo of a group of female Marines stationed in the Middle East running on a beach naked. Everyone knows where this is going.
Suffice it to say, the circumstances of military life. In spite of ongoing American hagiography about servicemen, Kipling's 1890 poem Tommy remains just as true for U.S. troops on some things, including this:
We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints;
This doesn't excuse the conduct, but eradicating it would require eradicating the situation, which we're not going to do.
And we aren't the Russians. The Russians aren't going to do any such thing with their military.
The recent war in Ukraine has shown, to a very large degree, that the Russian Army is the Red Army, and the Red Army was an overrated armed gang for parts of its history, and just overrated when that wasn't true. It was an armed gang in the immediate post Civil War period, and certainly during the Second War. Its aura of greatness was heavily impacted by Soviet propaganda. In reality, rape was a common thing once it crossed out of Soviet territory and the taking of "field wives" very common. So much so that it was a major source of domestic strife in the post-war Soviet Union, as men's actual wives knew that their husbands had engaged in both behaviors.
Believing that your enemy is impressive is wise, but in realty, the Red Army was not all that good in the Cold War, and the Russian Army isn't now.
We'll get back around to the Russian Army momentarily. Sticking with our current theme. . .
Exploitation suit dismissed.
I was going to report on this headline some time ago.
Olivia Hussey, then 15 and now 71, and Leonard Whiting, then 16 now 72, filed the suit in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging sexual abuse, sexual harassment and fraud.
This in regard to their nude scenes in Romeo & Juliet.
They basically alleged that they were told that nudity they posed for would not actually be shown, when Hussey's breasts briefly were, and Whiting's butt was as well, and that they suffered years of shame as a result. The suit sought punitive damages for an act which was illegal, at the time, under California's law, but which obviously nobody did anything about at the time. They were asking for $100 million in punitive damages, but theoretically could receive more than $500 million to match what the film has earned since 1968, apparently.
If you are wondering how this could be brought now, California temporarily suspended the statute of limitations for older claims of child sexual abuse, which expired at the end of 2022.
This is an interesting development for a number of reasons.
One is that the nude scenes were noted at the time, but obviously, nothing was done about it. Indeed, while the scenes noted above are the ones that have been picked up by the press, Hussey's also had at least one scene in which she rolls over while inclined, exposing her full bare back and rear. At least one poster for the movie depicts an illustration of a nude Hussey on a nude Whiting, although you can't see the generally forbidden features.
This film isn't really unique in this regard. A little later, but not much, a genuinely shocking scene was included in 1976's Ode To Bobby Joe, which is an overall horrifically bad film, but which had some popularity at the time. The whole film is incredibly stupid, but it also features a nearly nude scene. The actors were in fact in their majority when it was filmed, but they're portraying, at least in the case of the female lead, underage teenagers. It's really pretty sick overall.
And recently, because of her bringing it back up, the public has had the opportunity to ponder the films Pretty Baby and The Blue Lagoon. Ick.
If nothing else tells us something about the moral depravity of the late 60s and the entire 1970s.
Anyhow, I don't know much about Whiting, but Hussey went on to be a famous actress, somewhat discrediting the claim that they subsequently lost roles. Indeed, given the moral climate of the late 60s and entire 70s, I doubt it. Her career actually goes back to 1964, at which time she was very clearly still a child, and she was cast as the Virgin Mary in 1977, when she still would have been quite young. Interesting, FWIW, her age in Romeo & Juliet would have been closer to what Mary's is speculated to have been at the time of the birth of Jesus, but the point is that her reputation hadn't been so tarnished as to keep her from getting the role of the most significant of all the female saints.
Oddly, FWIW, my high school English teacher, who later was arrested and convicted on what we might call a morals charge, didn't like her portrayal of the Virgin Mary, but did like the portrayal in Romeo & Juliet, in part due to his perception that her depictions in both were juvenile.
I haven't seen Jesus of Nazareth, that latter film, and I've only seen part of Romeo & Juliet. I don't like Romeo & Juliet, the play, as it strikes me as boring and juvenile, and the parts of the movie I've seen, years ago, struck me as boring at the time.
Hussey also portrayed, Mother Teresa in a 2003 television movie,
Anyway, I feel they were exploited, if they brought their suit to address it a bit late. The California judge did not, stating that they, "have not put forth any authority showing the film here can be deemed to be sufficiently sexually suggestive as a matter of law to be held to be conclusively illegal.”
Too bad, in my view.
Maybe just bringing it to light, however, served an overall good purpose.
Let's go back to topics Slavic.
Where's the offensive?
In much of the Northern Hemisphere, it's late Spring, and we were expecting a Ukrainian offensive.
Well, maybe we'll get one, or maybe not (we probably will), but what seems to be the case is that spring came late to Ukraine, and everything is really muddy. Therefore, the Rasputitia is still ongoing.
The Ukrainians, in the meantime, are using the time, it appears, to their training and logistical advantage.
Without getting into it too deeply, the Ukrainians also seem to have managed to cause the Russians to fight a 2023 version of the Battle of Khe Sanh.
Speaking of things with a long past. . .
Charles the Third, by the Grace of God King of Canada and His other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth.’
Canada has changed the honorifics for the King, or Queen.
The late Queen was known as ‘Queen Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom, Canada and Her other Realms and Territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith.
Changing the titles of people in this fashion says something. And in this case, not something good.
Last prior edition:
Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVI . To what extent is that new?
Wednesday, May 10, 2023
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя
U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.
I haven't discussed here what those reports reveal, as it hasn't been very clear to me. By and large, most of the information I've seen related to the leaks simply confirms news that had already been circulating, something that; 1) makes you wonder to what extent this was leaking before, and 2) makes you wonder if this is really a deception campaign.
Indeed, on the latter, the Ukrainians have been remarkably adept at keeping their own plans secret. Having said that, this would be a U.S. leak and Americans are phenomenally bad at keeping anything secret, which is one of the reasons the theory that the US has been keeping details of extraterrestrials secret for eighty years is absurd. We couldn't have kept that secret for thirty days.
Anyhow, more recent news stories have stated a couple of things that are of interest and haven't really been revealed before, and they're worth mentioning.
One is that the US is under equipping the Ukrainians. We've put a lot of military hardware in their hands, but we have yet to make use of the Lend Lease bill that Congress passed and really get them everything we could. As a result, there are real reasons to doubt that they could mount a successful Spring offensive. And in some areas, we desperately undersupply them in critical weapons.
Another is a host of NATO armies do have boots on the ground, including the U.S. The numbers are minuscule, with the country with the most, the UK, having less than 20 at any one time.
These are no doubt advisers, and I'd frankly wondered. It makes sense that they'd be there, and now we know that they are.
A video is circulating of Russian soldiers beheading captured members of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. On the video, they can be heard saying "mercenaries".
April 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Washington Post reports the intelligence news leaks came from Thug Shaker Central Discord server and the person releasing them is a member, "OG", who works for U.S. intelligence in some capacity.
April 13, cont.
A1C Jack Teixeira, 21 years of age and a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was arrested in connection with the intelligence leaks described above.
April 16, 2023
Sudan
Sudanese government and paramilitary forces have been engaged in heavy fighting in the nation's capital over the past couple of days.
Russo Ukrainian War
The war is beginning to have peculiar domestic impacts inside of Russia.
A debate over migration from Central Asia has commenced, with backers wanting to nearly triple immigration into Russia to stabilize a crashing population. This has sparked a reaction in that opponents are accusing the backers of wanting to basically sell out Russians to Central Asian cultures.
In the meantime, advertisements are now appearing on Russian television for Russian women to move to China as brides.
Russia is introducing conscription via electronic notices.
April 23, 2023
Sudan
The U.S. Embassy staff has been evacuated from Sudan and civilians are leaving the country.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians have crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.
The Russian military is attempting to pressure Putin to go to defensive operations.
Russian authorities are oppressing Catholics in occupied areas, most recently occupying the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in occupied Berdyansk, accusing the priests there of hiding weapons.
April 24, 2023
Sudan
The US and UK airlifted their embassy staffs out of the country in military operations.
April 25, 2023
Sudan
Rival factions vying for control of the country, mostly through fighting in its capital Khartoum, have agreed to a US brokered three day ceasefire.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine apparently had planned deep strikes inside of Russia on the anniversary of the invasion of the country, including on Moscow, but were restrained from doing so by the US.
Such an effort would likely have been a waste of munitions and only served to unite Russians more completely behind Putin.
April 30, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
A Russian ship that carries rescue submarines was photographed near the location of the Nord Stream gas pipeline prior to its explosion last September.
Hmmm. . .
Ukrainian drones hit a Russian fuel depot in Crimea.
Sudan
The U.S. has evacuated private citizens from Sudan.
There's been some medial criticism that the US hasn't treated the situation in Sudan the same way it has the war in Ukraine. But how would it? Intervene in a civil war?
May 2, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The US believes that the Russians have sustained100,000 causalities, including 80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed, in the Battle of Bakhmut. Half of the 20,000 dead were Wagner Group troops.
May 3, 2023
United States/Mexican Border
Not a war, but the US will deploy 1,500 troops on the border as Covid era emergency restrictions come off.
This is a topic for another post, but the problems with illegal immigration across the border are something the US just hasn't had the stomach or foresight to really deal with. Given the level of illegal immigration, and its deep existential nature, the time to do so, if its not going to amount to simply ordering the border and fundamentally changing the nature of the country by giving up on having any immigration controls at all, is right now.
Russo Ukrainian War
Trains have been targeted by blown rails in Crimea the last two days, a classic sabotage, resistance move, although in this instance it appears to be via drones.
May 4, 2023
Russian Ukrainian War
The Kremlin was attacked, oddly and ineffectively, by two drones. The respected ISW suspects this was a Russian false flag operation.
May 5, 2023
Russian Ukrainian War
Russia asserted the absurd hypothesis that the US was behind the drone strikes on the Kremlin.
More and more Russia looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.
The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group claimed he is pulling his troops out of Bakhmut next week. A feud between the group and the Russian forces over supplies has been running for several days.
May 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
It appears that the Wagner Group will pull out of Bakhmut and that it will be replaced by Chechens.
At this point, the Wagner Group may have been effectively eliminated as a fighting force.
Chechens haven't really been put to the test, but it's worth noting that dissident Chechens are already fighting for Ukraine.
May 11, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia had a much scaled down Victory Day celebration, that annual event in which Russia pretends the USSR single-handedly defeated its former ally Nazi Germany. This year's event featured a single tank, that being a World War Two vintage T-24. Putin delivered a speech in which he acted as if the attempted rape of Ukraine was a war against the entire West, and the West's fault.
This parade does point out something we've noted before, that being that one of Russia's great liabilities in the modern era is believing that it won World War Two. It did not. Nor did the USSR do it single-handedly. In reality, the USSR fought with millions of men who were not Russian, along with millions of Russians, most of whom were conscripted, and whom signficant numbers of which deserted and defected to the Nazis in spite of all that the Nazis fought for. Moreover, this would have been a good parade to thrown an American made Sherman or British made Churchill tank into, sybolizing the extent to which the Soviets were saved by Western Allied materials.
Putin may imagine himself at war with the West, or state it as propganda, but in reality, the Soviets were Allies of Western fascism in the form of Nazism, until attacked by it, at which point they were saved, in no small part, by the Western democracies.
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin used the occasion to mock Putin, which is a bit surprising, even though Prigozhin has been outspoken in his discontent. Indeed, I'd regard it as dangerous even if Russian forces need Wagner's wholly disposable troops. Those troops, however, are now not going to be withdrawn from Bakhmut, that whole episode apparently being theater of some sort.
Russia has been engaging in large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine. Drone attacks are being attempted as well, but Ukraine is having a lot of success in shooting drones down.
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 3. Spring Storms.
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
The Truth About Russia’s AK-12 - is it over hyped?
Friday, March 3, 2023
Saturday, February 11, 2023
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six
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Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated. The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.
After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity. Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one. Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917. Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days. At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.
Instead, a highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place. As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons. Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.
The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used. Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating. Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however. Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery. Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.
Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this. Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error. Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now. Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.
Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair. Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed. Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase. An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now. Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.
Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine
Donations
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has extended his
appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating
used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.
Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort
involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in
the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels
that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the
vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were
donated.
“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this
needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.
Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and
Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock
Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation;
Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.
-END-
Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022
Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.
As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.
Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.
Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.
As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.
I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.
- China/Taiwan
- Afghanistan/Al Qaida
- China/Taiwan
- Russo Ukrainian War
- China/Taiwan
- Russo-Ukrainian War
- Israel/Gaza
- Russo-Ukrainian War
- Israel/Gaza
- Somalia
- Russo-Ukrainian War
- United States/Islamic militants
- Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.