February 25, 2023
America and our friends need to finish waking up from our holiday from history, welcome Finland and Sweden into NATO by this summer, and make significant investments in military modernization and our defense-industrial capacities that are commensurate with the major challenges we face.
Mitch McConnell.
February 26, 2023
The much respected Institute for the Study of War reports:
UK, French, and German officials are reportedly preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protections Ukraine would receive from NATO membership and appears to reflect a desire to press Ukraine to accept a negotiated settlement on unfavorable terms.[1] The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact provisions of the pact are undecided, but the officials indicated that the pact will provide advanced military equipment, arms, and ammunition to Ukraine, but not Article V protection or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine—falling short of Ukraine’s aspirations for full NATO membership. The officials stated that the pact aims to provision Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deter any future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal noted that these officials expressed reservations about the West’s ability to sustain a prolonged war effort, the high casualty count that Ukraine would sustain in such a prolonged war, and Ukrainian forces’ ability to completely recapture long-occupied territories like Crimea, however. The Wall Street Journal contrasted these officials’ private reservations with US President Joe Biden’s public statements of support—which did not mention peace negotiations—and with Central and Eastern European leaders’ concerns that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given no indication that he is willing to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include Ukraine’s “neutrality” and demilitarization—as well as de facto regime change in Kyiv, as ISW has consistently reported.[2]
February 28, 2023
China v. Taiwan
The Central Intelligence Agency reports that China has ordered its military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, but may be reconsidering that in light of lessons learned in the Russo Ukrainian War.
China, the CIA reports, is considering providing weapons and munitions to Russia, but has not made up its mind on that.
March 2, 2023
Iranian Insurrection
CTP assesses with moderate confidence that the Iranian regime is tolerating a country-wide, coordinated campaign to poison Iranian school girls. Social media users documented incidents of chemical poisoning at 26 girls’ schools throughout the country on March 1 alone.[1] Hundreds of Iranian schoolgirls have reported respiratory and neurological poisoning symptoms since November 2022, many of whom have required hospitalization.[2] The first reported incident occurred on November 30, 2022, in Qom City, Qom Province when 18 Shahed Razaviyeh Secondary School students reported experiencing nausea, coughing, difficulty breathing, heart palpitations, and lethargy.[3] Initial poisoning cases primarily affected female high school students in Qom. In recent weeks, however, poisoning cases have spread across Iran and have also targeted elementary, middle school, and university students, as well as less frequent incidents at boys’ educational facilities.[4] CTP recorded a significant increase in poisoning cases on March 1, with students from at least 26 schools falling ill. Most poisonings on March 1 occurred in Tehran and Ardabil Provinces.[5] It remains unclear why these cities appear to have been disproportionately targeted.
Simply monstrous.
March 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia is accusing Ukraine of a cross border incursion in Bryansk Oblast. Ukraine denies the charge.
This may be a false flag operation. The irony of it is that a country really can't complain of a cross border incursion after having committed a cross border invasion.
There is pretty good evidence that Ukraine has carried out some special operations in Russia.
March 5, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces are gaining, slowly, around Bakhmut, but will not encircle it. The real question at the moment is when the Ukrainians will withdraw.
Having said that, there's a real chance that any victory gained by the Russians there will be Pyrrhic. In a war of attrition, which Russia seems to have opted for, both sides attrit, but rarely evenly. With 97% of its forces committed, there's a real question of whether the analogy is the winter of 1943 . . . or the winter of 1917.
March 7, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
President Zelenskyy vowed that Ukrainian forces will not retreat from Bakhmut which, unless he has intelligence indicating that the Russians are spent, would seek to be a risky and unwise proclamation.
Russia is devoting inordinate forces to taking the city and has had a terrible time doing so. It's main strategic value may simply be in sapping up Russian strength. Presently its wasting the Wagner Group there, which in my view may be intentional, simply getting rid of a difficult presence in a way that benefits it, but it's also deployed airborne troops there. Ukraine is using elite elements in the fight, which may prove to be a mistake as well.
Taking the city is necessary for a further Russian advance, but it may have spent so much taking it, that it can't advance.
Russian camera phone footage showing the execution of Ukrainian POW Tymofiy Shadura has outraged Ukrainians. The man, appearing to be injured and smoking a cigarette, says Slava Ukraini! just before Russian soldiers murder him with automatic rifle fire. Apparently the video was thought likely to scare Ukrainians, but instead it's uniting them.
One of the many images made of the 40 year old Sadura as he faced down his captors. Based on images released from his family, twenty years ago, as a young man, he served as a Ukrainian paratrooper. The name is actually a Polish last name.
This shows the extent to which the current Russian Army is truly the heir to the Red Army. The Red Army had practiced murder from day one and during World War Two became a huge armed mob, with rape and murder of civilians part of its lasting legacy. The modern Russian Army continues to behave in this fashion, showing, to its shame, that the Russians have not learned the lessons of history. The Russians (and Poles) detest the Russians due to their barbarism and the horrors afflicted upon them by the Russians. In the Second World War, which the Russians look back at as their defining moment, the Red Army's actions helped deter Axis troops from surrendering, although their own barbarism had a role in that, and helped contribute to the months from January through May, as the Red Army reached Eastern Europe and Germany, being the bloodiest of the war.
In a bad move sort of way, Ukraine has begun to use white crosses on their armored vehicles to identify them. This symbol has a long history of being associated with Ukraine, apparently, but in some instances it's applied as the Balkenkreuz, which Nazi Germany used during World War Two. Not a good look.
In a sign of how extensive Russian attrition is, the Russians 1st Guards Tank Army may be reequipped T-62s to replace losses. The Russians have taken 800 T-62s. In fairness, they've worked on upgrading them. They're also deploying 1950s vintage BTR-50s.
Now, about those M-60s. . .
North Korea vs South Korea and the United States.
North Korean Commie Princess, Kim Yo Jong, speaking for the Stalinist Theme Park in reaction to a B-52 demonstration earlier this week, proclaimed and stated:
We keep our eye on the restless military moves by the U.S. forces and the South Korean puppet military and are always on standby to take appropriate, quick and overwhelming action at any time according to our judgment
North Korea only exists as China, and to a lesser extent Russia, prop the Communist monarchy up. One more reason to tell the Chinese and Russians to pound sand on about everything.
March 7, 2023, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
A Russian television propagandist reports that the British are now so short of food, due to the war, that they are now serving squirrels in restaurants.
Given that the UK doesn't depend on Russia for food at all, or Ukraine for that matter, this is wildly absurd. Food shortages due to the war have been mostly felt in Africa. A person would be tempted to pose the question of how dense a person has to be to believe something like this, but then we'd be forced to recall that some people listen to the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene.
March 7, 2023, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
The Georgian parliament passed a law regarding "foreign agents" which has been regarded as pro Russian by the populace, resulting in protests outside of the parliament which resulted in Molotov Cocktails being thrown.
March 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
While the headlines on it are inaccurate, the New York Times is reporting that the Nordstream pipeline was blown up by an anti Putin group that may have included Russians, may have included Ukrainians, or may have included both.
Effectively, this was an anti Putin strike, not a Ukrainian one.
If the NYT is correct. No governmental intelligence agency has joined stated it agreed with the NYT so far.
If correct, it would have been a strike against a major Russian financial asset.
March 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces have captured all of eastern Bakhmut across the Bakhmutka, with Ukrainian forces having completed a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut. Following this, Russia launched a massive drone and missile assault.
Georgia's parliament withdrew its foreign agent bill after large-scale public protests.
It might be worth remembering that the current Ukrainian government basically came into power following large-scale public unrest, taking out a government that leaned towards Russia.
March 10, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces have advanced north of Bakhmut.
March 11, 2023
Russia v Moldova
U.S. intelligence reports that Russian operatives are working towards staging protests in Moldova as a pretext towards an overthrow of the government there.
Why now may be the question. Moldova's breakaway Russian supporting Transnistria borders Ukraine and contains one of the largest ammo dumps in the world. It's hard not to notice this.
March 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Sergey Grishin, a Russian oligarch who recently criticized Putin, died at age 56 of “circulatory problems in his brain" making him another Putin opponent to die mysteriously since the beginning of the Russo Ukrainian War
Andrey Botikov, creator of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, also mysterious died a few days thereafter.
March 14, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
What I've been urging for some time is now going to happen. M60 tanks are going to Ukraine.
Not regular ones, however, but rather engineer M60 Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges (AVLBs), which have no gun.
It's also receiving M88 tank retrievers, a very heavily armored, but ungunned, retriever platform that shares a chassis with the M60.
March 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War/Belorussian Revolution
It has been confirmed that anti-government Belorussian partisans made a drone attack several weeks ago on a Russian A50 surveillance aircraft at a Belorussian air base.
March 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
A Russian Su-27 caused an American drone to crash in the Black Sea yesterday. The two aircraft may have collided.
Russia, which tends to be as dense as a box of rocks about the capabilities of Western equipment, lied and said the drone just suddenly veered off and fell in the sea, apparently wholly unaware that the drone photographed the SU-27 and we'd have the film footage.
D'uh.
Russia is trying to recover the drone presently.
An interesting aspect of this is the release of jet fuel by the Su-27 near the drone. It may be just me, but I'd fear that the drone's engine would ignite the fuel and send the Su-27 up in a big ball of flame, but apparently not.
Russia v. Moldova
A Russian document detailing plans to co-opt Moldova has been released.
March 16, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
The headquarters of the Russian FSB, the state security service, in Rostov is on fire. Prior to commencing to burn, it exploded.
Rostov was originally within Ukraine until the Soviet Union took it following Ukraine's incorporation into the USSR.
Polish security forces have arrested agents working for Russia in Eastern Poland.
March 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin connected with the kidnapping and forcible relocation of Ukrainian Children.
In future years, this will be one of those "why didn't other countries" do anything stories.
China's leader will be meeting with Putin this week.
Slovakia and Poland are sending Mig-29s to Ukraine.
March 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drones destroyed a load of Russian cruise missiles at a Crimean port yesterday.
Russia is going to hold an informal UN session on the children its kidnapped to present its story related to the same. This is interesting in that it must be feeling the heat due to this horrible crime.
By all appearnces, the much feared Russian spring offensive has more or less petered out.
March 21, cont:
Ukraine took delivery of its first batch of South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks today, as well as South Korean K9 self propelled howitzers.
South Korea has been active in exporting the K2, which has only been in existance for ten years, making it a very new main battle tank.
The US announced that it was supplying Ukraine with M1A1 Abrams tanks rather than M1A2s as the former can be delivered by fall.
March 22, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
China's leader Xi Jinping visited Putin yesterday and put out a stillborn peace plan that pretty much only Moscow is interested in.
Japan's PM visited Kyiv.
Dima Nova (Dmitry Svirgunov) of the Russian electronic music group Cream Soda, author of Aqua Disco, which was used as a protest song against Putin and the invasion of Ukraine and which criticizes Putin's expensive mansion, is reported dead due to drowning, having fallen through ice on the Volga.
This does not, in any way, appear to be related to Putin.
Russia is now taking T-54/55s out of storage.
For those who aren't familiar with armor, the T-54 was the first signficant Soviet tank to enter service after World War Two, which it did in 1948. They are the most mass produced tank in history, having remained in production in the USSR until 1981 and in Poland until 1983.
Ukraine has used some T-55s during the current war itself in an uparmored, upgunned variant.
Russian resort to T-54s is shocking in that it could be logically presumed that they're long obsolete in the most armored military on earth. Their use would imply that losses of armor have been massive or that they intend to resort to sheer numbers. The tank is not competent to use against at least Korean Black Panthers or American M1 Abrams.
At the time of its introduction, the M26 Pershing was more or less the equivalent American tank, soon, in the early 50s, to be replaced by the M47 and M48.
March 24, 2023
United States in Syria and v. Iran
Groups affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a US compound in Syria, killing five servicemen and a contractor. The strike was conducted with a drone.
In retaliation, the US conducted airstrikes on the opponents facilities.
March 31, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Turkish government has approved Finland's request to join NATO, so Finland will be part of NATO.
April 2, 2023
Russo Urainian War
Poland is working on opening a production facility for Korean Black Panther tanks. The Korean tank is rapidly supplanting the Leopard as the go to modern Main Battle Tank in the export market.
Ukraine has placed under hourse arrest Ukrainian Orthodox Metropolitan Pavel under suspicision of cooperation with the Russians.
Isreal in Syria and v. Iran
Isreal struck targets east of Damascus in air raids which were locations for Iranian backed militias.
April 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Pro war Russian blogger Vaden Tartarsky, a Russian demographic that has had a real role in the current conflict, was killed in a cafe explosion when he was speaking in St. Petersburg. A video showed a gift of a bust, effectively a trojan horse, being given to him shortly before it detonated.
ISW is attributing the attack to Russian infighting.
April 4, 2023
US v. ISIS
Khalid ‘Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri was killed in a U.S. airstrike yesterday. He had planned terrorist attacks in Europe.
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