Showing posts with label The Second Trump Administration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Second Trump Administration. Show all posts

Monday, May 5, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

 


April 10, 2025

On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.

This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.

Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.

Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.

This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.

And so here we are.  

Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism.  The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends.  The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.

Highly relevant to Wyoming:

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

Cont:

Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed.  Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.

Cont:

After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.

Cont:

The Dow closed 1,000 points down.

Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.

The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.

April 11, 2025

China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.

April 13, 2025

The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.

April 14, 2025

The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.

Regarding the weekend shows:

A Disturbing Trifecta

On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:

GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS SEAFOOD INDUSTRY 

Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value

April 17, 2025

Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.

It’s Not Known If The 6-10 UW Students Who Had Visas Revoked Are Still On Campus

April 19, 2025

Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.

President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

April 22, 2025

Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.

By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.

Few think administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain

 

Stocks End Sharply Lower. The Dow Is on Pace for Worst April Since 1932.

The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.

Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.

cont:

Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration.  It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.

cont: 

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.

The result would be stagflation.

April 23, 2025

After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.

Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.

Classic Trump cycle.  Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.

April 24, 2025

Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part.  He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.

Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.

Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.

April 29, 2025

Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.

D'uh.

Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.

Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular.  It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.

April 30, 2025

Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.

UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.

The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.

May 1, 2025

Here's the current price of oil:

WTI Crude 56.88

Brent Crude 59.75

This is way below the Wyoming price marketability figure.  If this holds, this will result in the crash of Wyoming oil.

Trump's economic propogandists keep pointing to the price of oil going down, which it has been, as proof of his tariffs working. They are working to depress the price of oil, but because the price of oil is an economic indicator.  When it goes down, it means there's an anticipated or actual low demand, usually.  Production gluts are also a cause, but that's not the cause here.

Prices went down on everything, I"d note, during the Great Depression, once it was really rolling.

This is bad news, for Wyoming in particular.

DOGE cuts to AmeriCorps ‘a devastating blow to the state of Wyoming’: “What I struggle with most is that this is somehow an act of efficiency,” one stakeholder told WyoFile, adding that $40 is returned for every federal dollar invested in service in Wyoming.

In the 100 Day Cabinet meeting in which Trump's loyal retainers heaped praise upon him, the Dear Leader noted sacrifice in that maybe children this Christmas shall get only two dolls, instead of 30.

Let them eat cake. 

May 3, 2025

There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago and we traded it. We want a prosperous world but eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that I would call quite unstable, I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say ‘hahaha we won,” and other countries are envious.

Warren Buffet today.

May 5, 2025

And now we're going to hit foreign movies with a 100% tariff, apparently.

Related threads:

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Labels: 

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 2. The world is not a development opportunity edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

Winston Churchill

Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.

Donald Trump on skipping the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery.

March 2, 2025

Turkey v. Kurds

Following an opening from Turkey's strongman ruler Erdogan, the PKK is suspending armed operations.

US Mexican Border

The US is deploying an additional 3,000 troops to the Mexican border.

March 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Hegseth Orders Pentagon to Stop Offensive Cyberoperations Against Russia

Absolutely stupid.

US v. Al Qaeda

On Feb. 23, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria, targeting and killing Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, the senior military leader of the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din (HaD), an Al-Qaeda affiliate.

US Central Command.

March 4, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The US suspended military aid to Ukraine.  Europe began immediately to fill in and J. D. Vance warned, based on nothing at all, that only Trump could negotiate peace.

More likely, this accelerates the eclipse of the United States.

March 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Trump Cabal cut off intelligence access to Ukraine.  Shortly after this, Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles.

March 8, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

When his country called, Donald Trump called up his doctor who found that he ineligible to go into harms way due to shin splints.  

Like a lot of the 1960s "not me" crowd, to include Dick Cheney and Joe Biden, this hasn't meant, in the case of Donald Trump, that he doesn't mind ordering killing done. Trump's taken into almost new territory, however, by withdrawing intelligence from an ally dependent up on us while his political party, which once stalwartly opposed foreign aggression by countries like Russia and North Korea, largely stands by.

The United States now has blood on its hands, and through betrayal:

US intel ban leads to heavy Ukrainian losses

A lot of people who admire Trump believe he has a big business head and that he's bring this to politics.  Why this is a good thing is never actually mentioned. Government isn't a business.  Beyond that, is Trump really a good businessman?  We have very little evidence that the is.  What we have evidence that he was born very wealthy and its well known that those born into great wealth are highly unlikely to lose it all.  Very wealthy families that do lose everything usually do so in the course of a couple of generations.  It takes that long to dissipate the wealth.  My guess is that this is happening to the Trump fortune right now.  Big fortunes are lost through classic means, spending on largess and women usually.  My guess is that for those who are looking at the trump's fifty to seventy five years hence, you'll find that they're still rich, but not vastly so, and probably working mundane rich people's jobs.

Anyhow, one of the big myths about Trump is that he's a great negotiator . What he is, is a bully.  Since returning to the Oval Office he's applied his bully skills to numerous things and its really start to fail.  The tariffs are a good example.  Canada has now reached the complete "fuck you" stage with Trump and he can't do one single thing about it.  Probably by summer the Mid West will have rolling blackouts due to an electrical blackout. The dimwit Trump has promised to get the XL pipeline rolling again and build one extending all the way to Alaska.  My prediction is that the XL if completed under Trump will be filled with air as it was supposed to transport Canadian crude.  Donny probably doesn't know that.  The Canadians are never going to allow the US to build a pipeline on their soil.

On the war, Ukrainian President Zylensky was brought to the US to surrender title to his country's minerals as an extorted payment for ongoing support.  The meeting went famously wrong as J. D. Vance, now with in a hairsbreadth of being President, showed himself way out of his element and engaged in an argument with the embattled Ukrainian leader.  Trump, coming to Vance's rescue, once again showed his intellect is really lacking and his verbal skills are that of a child.  Since that time, using tactics that he learned as a real estate magnate, he's attempted to bully Ukraine into submission by withholding arms and intelligence to the country.  

In blunt terms, he figures that getting Ukrainians killed will make them pliant.

It's monstrously wrong.

And its not even artful.

There's pretty good evidence at this point that the bloom is really off the rose of this administration and that even within the administration itself things are beginning to breakdown.  Marco Rubio got into a yelling match with weirdo Elon Musk and actually prevailed.  Another cabinet member had to take babbling Trump off the phone and negotiate a deal with Trudeau himself.  Trump is slowly on his way out, but how much damage he does on the way out is yet to be seen.

At any rate, somewhere on the far side of things thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are joining the souls of those of the Army of the Republic of Vietnam to lament being betrayed by the United States.  But at the same time, the departed spirits of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger can take solace that their betrayal of an ally wasn't the work of a demented toddler.

Here in the US, the hardcore MAGA's are all saying it'll work out, or coming up with reason why betrayal is okay.  It won't, and it isn't.

March 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia rejected lil Don's suggestion of a cease fire.

March 16, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The US struck the Houthis yesterday, who vowed retaliation.

March 17, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Hegseth Says Campaign Against Houthis Will be 'Unrelenting' Until Hostilities Cease

March 17, 2025 | By Matthew Olay

During a media interview yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. military will continue to tactically engage Iranian-backed Houthis until they stop acting aggressively against U.S. ships in the region.

Hegseth commented on the topic following President Donald J. Trump's order for U.S. Central Command to launch multiple airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen, March 15, 2025. 

"Freedom of navigation is basic; it's a core national interest," Hegseth said, adding that the current campaign is about restoring deterrents in the region in addition to freedom of navigation. 

"The minute the Houthis say, 'We'll stop shooting at your ships [and] we'll stop shooting at your drones,' this campaign will end but, until then, it will be unrelenting," he continued. 

Hegseth also said the airstrikes were meant to draw Iran's attention. 

"The message is clear to Iran … Your support of the Houthis needs to end immediately. We will hold you accountable as the sponsor of this proxy, and I echo [the president's] statement [that] we will not be nice about it," Hegseth said.

The Houthis have been acting aggressively in the Red Sea region since October 2023, when a U.S. Navy destroyer had to intercept three land-attack cruise missiles fired by the Houthis toward Israel. 

Since then, the Houthis have launched over 100 drone and missile attacks targeting American and allied ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, resulting in many commercial ships having to alter their routes to avoid the region at a tremendous commercial cost. 

Hegseth likened the severe economic impact of the Houthi aggression in the region to "being held hostage by a terrorist organization" and then pointed out that the Trump administration has indeed labeled the Houthis as such. 

"To the Houthis: [the airstrikes weren't] a one-night thing … This is about stopping the shooting at assets in that critical waterway to reopen the freedom of navigation, which is a core national interest of the United States," Hegseth said, before again reemphasizing that Iran needs to "back off" from enabling the Houthis. 

Hegseth said Iran and its additional military proxies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — are in a "weakened state." 

"But it doesn't mean they still don't have the desire [for aggression]," he said, adding that Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. 

"Iran must get that clear message and negotiate the end of their pursuit for nuclear weapons because … President Trump has said clearly that they will not get a bomb," Hegseth said.

March 19, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Israel is back to bombarding Gaza, so the cease fire did not hold.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin agreed to an infrastructure ceasefire, which it turned around and immediately violated.

cont:

Israel has launched a new ground invasion into Gaza after breaking ceasefire

March 23, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The rocket and counterstrike feature of this war in Lebanon has returned.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has hit some major Russian air assets and fuel assets in the last couple of days.  Russia had hit Kyiv.

March 24, 2025

The world found out shortly before 2 p.m. eastern time on March 15 that the United States was bombing Houthi targets across Yemen.

I, however, knew two hours before the first bombs exploded that the attack might be coming. The reason I knew this is that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m. The plan included precise information about weapons packages, targets, and timing.

This is going to require some explaining.

The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans.  Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic.

March 25, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump administration petulantly denied texting war plans to The Atlantic, while insulting the recipient, while it simultaneously became more obvious that in fact it had occurred.

The US hit Houthi targets in Yemen again.

March 30, 2025

It's been a bad week, foreign policy wise, for the supposed great negotiator, Donald Trump.

United States v. Iran

In a press interview today Donald Trump threated to bomb Iran to the hilt if it does not enter into a nuclear deal with the United States.

Iran has replied it won't enter into direct talks with the US, but might be willing to discuss this matter in some other fashion.

Russo Ukrainian War

The great dealmaker also expressed frustration, or rather that he was "pissed off", with Putin, accusing him of lying and not wanting a peace.

Apparently Trump is the last guy on Earth who didn't already know this, besides flunky sycophants.

He's threating secondary tariffs.

Middle Eastern War.

Revealed on the leaked texts VP Vance was concerned that Trump didn't understand what the bombing.  He said:

3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message.

I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.

April 2, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel has announced its intends to seize "large" areas of land in Gaza. 

April 8, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel now controls, once again, 50% of Gaza.

Russo Ukrainian War

ISW reports that  Russian advances have slowed to a crawl.

April 13, 2025

Mexican Border

Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

Presidential Memoranda

April 11, 2025

NATIONAL SECURITY PRESIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM/NSPM-4

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

               THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR

               THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

               THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY

SUBJECT:      Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

As the Chief Executive and Commander in Chief, the United States Constitution empowers me to direct the various elements of the executive branch to protect our homeland and ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the United States in the manner I deem most efficient and effective, consistent with applicable law.  Our southern border is under attack from a variety of threats.  The complexity of the current situation requires that our military take a more direct role in securing our southern border than in the recent past.  Through Executive Order 14167 of January 20, 2025 (Clarifying the Military’s Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States), I assigned the Armed Forces of the United States the military missions of repelling the invasion and sealing the United States southern border from unlawful entry to maintain the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.  This memorandum provides additional guidance on securing the southern border to the heads of certain executive departments. 

Section 1.  Policy. (a) to accomplish the military missions described in Executive Order 14167, and to ensure the safety and security of the military and other Federal personnel in areas of military operations within Federal lands along the southern border, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall take all appropriate actions:

(i)    to provide for the use and jurisdiction by the Department of Defense over such Federal lands, including the Roosevelt Reservation and excluding Federal Indian Reservations, that are reasonably necessary to enable military activities directed in this memorandum, including border-barrier construction and emplacement of detection and monitoring equipment; and

(ii)   to provide for transfer and acceptance of jurisdiction over such Federal lands in accordance with applicable law to enable military activities directed in this memorandum to occur on a military installation under the jurisdiction of the Department of Defense and for the designation of such Federal lands as National Defense Areas by the Secretary of Defense.

(b)  The Secretary of the Interior shall allow the Secretary of Defense to use those portions of the Roosevelt Reservation not yet transferred or withdrawn under this memorandum. In accordance with Proclamation 10886 of January 20, 2025 (Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States), 43 U.S.C. 155 is hereby invoked and the Secretary of the Interior may make withdrawals, reservations, and restrictions of public lands to provide for the utilization of public lands by the Department of Defense to address the emergency at the southern border, without regard to any limitation on withdrawals otherwise applicable under the terms of the Engle Act, 43 U.S.C. 155-158.

(c)  The Secretary of Defense may determine those military activities that are reasonably necessary and appropriate to accomplish the mission assigned in Executive Order 14167 and that are necessary to protect and maintain the security of military installations, consistent with section 2672 of title 10, United States Code, and the longstanding authority of a military installation commander to exclude persons from a military installation, as recognized in section 21 of the Internal Security Act of 1950 (50 U.S.C. 797) and 18 U.S.C. 1382.

(d)  In carrying out activities under this memorandum, members of the Armed Forces will follow rules for the use of force prescribed by the Secretary of Defense.

Sec. 2.  Phased Implementation. The Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security will initially implement this memorandum on a limited sector of Federal lands designated by the Secretary of Defense.  Within 45 days of the date of this memorandum, the Secretary of Defense shall assess this initial phase.  At any time, the Secretary of Defense may extend activities under this memorandum to additional Federal lands along the southern border in coordination with the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President and Homeland Security Advisor, and other executive departments and agencies as appropriate.

Sec. 3.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this memorandum shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)    the authority of the Secretary of Defense to authorize and request that State Governors order members of the National Guard under authority of title 32 of the United States Code to conduct Department of Defense activities, including as appropriate to support law enforcement activities under the responsibility of the Attorney General or the Secretary of Homeland Security, if requested by such official;

(ii)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(iii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This memorandum shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This memorandum is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

April 18, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US is about to give up attempting to broker a peace in the Ruisso Ukrainian War.

Apparently his boss, the great deal maker, and friend of thug Putin, isn't as effective at deal making as he claimed.

April 23, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians and it’s time for them to either say ‘yes’ or for the United States to walk away from this process.

J. D. Vance.

So much for Trump's negotiating skills.

April 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the war in private in the Sistine Chapel, before Pope Francis' funeral.

April 27, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are asserting they have expelled all Ukrainian troops from the Kursk oblast.

May 3, 2025

Mexican Border

The administration declared a  "Texas National Defense Area" spanning 63 miles east of El Paso along the Texas-New Mexico border, following having declared a similar 170-mile-long zone created in New Mexico last month.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist 83d Edition. The law and refusal to depart, departing in the worst way, echoes of service.

The old lawyers.


I was on a phone hearing recently and one of the lawyers, whom I used to run into a fair amount but have not for years, sounded really rough.  In a subsequent phone call he sounded the same way, and I looked up his firm photo and realized he is now 76 years old.

76.

What the crap?

In his photo, he looked haggard and ancient.

I was at something else not too long ago and saw another lawyer I used to run into a fair amount, who always had a youthful appearance even though I knew he was at least  decade.  I was shocked by his appearance.  

He's now 83.  He might just be practicing part time, I'd note.

I spoke to a lawyer friend of mine who is now up over 70, I think.  He doesn't appear worn or drawn down, but he told me that he's afraid of retiring as he enjoys the social interaction of the lawyers.  We discussed another lawyer who is a friend of his whom I figure is now in his mid 70s.

 There's something deeply wrong with all of this.

This reflects, I'll note, in our society at large, of course.  Our last qualified President, Joe Biden was in his 80s, and clearly suffering from mental decline, when he left office in defeat.  A recent book regarding the 2024 election reports, in hte opinion of hte authors, that Biden believes he's smarkter than everyone else which formed the basis of his disaterous decision.  Our current chief executive is also, in my view, suffering from dementia at an increasing rate that can't be ignored, but which is largely being ignored, even as he destroys the economy, foreign relations, and American democracy.  He also seems to suffer from "only I can do it" delusion, and on at least one occasion in the 2024 campaign said as much.

Biden was a lawyer, eons ago.  Trump is a real estate developer, so that's a bit off point. But there's something really pathetic about lawyers who practice past their 60s.  I'm in my early 60s, I'd note.  They've lost something of their soul, if not their souls in general, and have nothing left but their work.*

There's also something societally wrong with a society that allows this to occur.  I'll avoid the political discussion, but mental decline is inevitable in almost everyone who lives past their 50s.  People don't want to believe it, but it's absolutely true.

And beyond that, society should not encourage the elderly to occupy positions such as this past their mid 60s.  It takes up space that should be filled by younger people.  By that point a peson should be ready to retire, and if they're not, they're never going to be ready, economically.  Talent wise, they should apply their talents and time to something else.

Read a book, train a dog, go fishing.  Discovery the person you were when you started out, and the one you apparently lost.

Mehr Mensch sein.

Service.

Vietnam service ribbon.

This will be an odd one, and it'll sound difficult not to make it should like I'm being unduly critical.

We've been running a lot of posts recently about the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975.  Nearly daily, as we're in the cycle in which things were becoming a disaster for the Republic of Vietnam, and a war which we entered in the early 1960s, and left in 1973, was about to be lost by the country we supported.

I note this as it's struck me for a long time how many professionals I know, including lawyers, who are of the Vietnam War generation and have no military service.

Not all, I'll note.  One former Federal District Court judge here was an artillery observer in Vietnam, and a lawyer in our capital city was an artilleryman.  Two state district court judges I know served in Vietnam.  And a few other lawyers I know did.

But by and large, most didn't.

It's interesting in a number of ways, one being that it's likely their father's all had served in World War Two.

Now, the Second World War was a huge war, to be sure.  But as a member of Generation Jones, when I was growing up, it was the case that if our fathers hadn't served in World War Two, they had in the Korean War, or on either side of it.  Growing up, this was so routine you simply assumed it.  I recall always being surprised if a kid I knew had a father who had never served in the Armed Forces, and this included professionals.  All the doctors and dentists that my father was friends with had served in World War Two or in the Armed Forces after that.  I didn't know but one lawyer then, but he'd served in the Post War Army and later on the older lawyers I knew who were of World War Two vintage had served, often quite heroically, in the war.

Baby Boom generation male lawyers?  Not so much.

I don't think that's a good thing, frankly.  War is awful but most American servicemen who served in the 60s nad early 70s didn't see a day of fighting.  The Service is full of men who aren't like you, who didn't grow up like you, and don't have any of your per service shared experiences.  That's valuable.

Lots of those guys would have been better men had they served.**  Donald Trump would have been.

And American society would be.  We really started dividing the country back into the haves, and have nots, but allowing so many who could afford an education to avoid serving.  It helped split hte country into the mess it is now.***

"Biased, Misguided WY Judges and Lawyers."

So claimed Wyoming's Congressional delegation about a letter signed by over 100 Wyoming lawyers.

I'm not a signatory to it as, frankly, I was too busy to notice its circulation when it was going around.  The letter is 100% correct, however.  I know a lot of the lawyers who did sign it, and more of a few of them are actual conservatives, and a few of them were once very significant figures in the Wyoming Republican Party, including those who were elected to office.  

Moreover, at least two of the three of the Congressional delegation itself are not anywhere near as populist as they now assert they are.  All three of these figures would have supported this letter under different circumstances, and two out of the three undoubtedly still hold the view that the lawyers are right, but are taking their positions as they do not wish to anger Trump supporters.  If the wind turns, they'll turn with it so rapidly that it will toss MAGA right off the decks.

All of which is profoundly sad.  That people hold one view and then express another one publicly is no doubt common, but it's not admirable, and is far from admirable in a situation like this.   It’s one of the things that’s really wrong with American politics today.

It is interesting t have even with the taking of extreme positions like this, at least one refused to publicly adopt the extreme Executive Power doctrine that’s being exercised now, while at the same time, not disavowing it.  John Barrasso, when asked if the President really had the power to levy tariffs the way he is (he doesn’t) just twice said that Congress had delegated a lot of power to the President.  It has.  It’s not a good thing, and he wouldn’t say that it is.

It does make sitting back and letting things happen easier.  The entire country is going to suffer massively due to Trump, and Wyoming is going to take a bruising.  It’d be far better to stand up and say so now, and take the lumps if they come, then to excuse your conduct later.

Footnotes

*Coincidentally, I saw this in our local newspaper in an advice column.

Dear Eric: I was an attorney when I started having memory problems at age 65. I retired and subsequently learned that I had a devastating rare dementia with a very short lifespan. Instead of providing me support, my friends disappeared from my life, at the time I needed them most. Friends may rally around you when you have cancer, driving you to chemo treatments, dropping off food and other things to support you; when you have dementia, everyone just disappears.

I’ve always been a sociable person and I’m missing that so much, but I have no idea how or where to start. Any ideas?

Students navigate campus atmosphere, social changes to find connection

– Left By Friends

Dear Friends: People sometimes don’t know what to do or say when confronted with illness, but that’s no excuse for your friends’ behavior and I’m sorry. The Alzheimer’s Association (alz.org) has a wealth of resources for people with dementia, including support groups, both online and in-person. Being able to talk with others about what you’re experiencing and feeling will help with isolation.

This also might be a time for you to explore new volunteer opportunities or social groups that have nothing to do with dementia, depending on your care plan and abilities. You are a person who is worthy of connection, with a wealth of experiences and knowledge from which others can benefit. Your company would be welcomed at a senior center, a local outing group or an organization that aligns with your interests and values. If you have anxiety about navigating these spaces with dementia, or need accommodation in order to feel safe, please don’t hesitate to reach out in advance and talk to a group leader about how you can participate most comfortably.

Eric is surprised that his fellow lawyers quit associating with him.

He likely ought not to be.

I don't think it's that people don't know what to say or do.  I think that people fail to appreciate that workplace social contacts are, to a very high degree, extremely casual or even business contacts, and that once the professional is not employed, at least in teh law, the value of that person to others in the law is gone.

In other words, this doesn't surprise me a bit. 

**I'd note that I feel the same way about men who weren't in the service, but who worked a blue collar or agricultural job.  Those employments are levelling in a way, and I've noticed that men of the same generation who were never in the Armed Forces, but worked as roughnecks or came from ranches and farms, are much more accepting generally of other people.

***And, ironically, it also started the country off on the hyper glorification of those who have been in the service.

Last edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist 82nd Edition. The This Is Your Economy On Dementia Edition.

The Madness of King Donald. The 25th Amendment Watch List.

 

What we’ve done in our politics is create a situation where we’re electing idiots.

Liz Cheney

Section 1

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Section 2

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Section 3

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 4

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

January 7, 2025. 

Trump calls in and Junior puts him on speaker (in Greenland). He says we need to take over Greenland because there are “ships sailing around and they’re not the right ships.”

 Ron Filipkowski

And so the Madness of King Donald is on full display, giving room for a Regency in favor of J. D. Vance.

How long will the decent interval be?  My prediction is 18 months.

That would be Monday, July 20, 2026.

cont:
We're going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Donald Trump.

cont:  
Reporter: Can you assure the world that as you try to get control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, you are not going to use military or economic coercion?

Trump: No.. I can’t assure you on either of those two.

And:

The windmills are driving the whales crazy. Obviously.

Trump also stated he'd  use "economic force" to compel Canada to become a 51st state. 

And:

It's called rain. It comes down from heaven. And they want to do no water comes out of the shower. It goes drip drip drip ... you can have all the water you want. It makes no difference.

And, he claimed at his press conference that  Hezbollah was at the January 6 riots.

January 14, 2025

Because creating a new agency obviously makes sense:

January 16, 2025


January 22, 2025
He (Kim Jong Un) liked me, I liked him. We got along very well…I think he has tremendous condo capability. He's got a lot of shoreline.
January 23, 2025

Half pipes. You see 'em all the time. Half pipes. People live in those half pipes now. You know, they have homeless living in those halftype

and;

The head of a country that lives in forest. A number of them, actually. Finland told me this. Austria told me this. The head of Austria, the head of Finland. And it was beautiful they way they expressed it. They said, 'We live in a forest. We are a forest nation.'

and;

We're gonna be demanding respect from other nations. Canada, we have a tremendous deficit with Canada. We're not gonna have that anymore. As you probably know, I say you can always become a state. If you're a state, we won't have a deficit, we won't have to tariff you.

and;

 REPORTER: You would agree it's never acceptable to assault police officers?

TRUMP: Sure

REPORTER: Among those you pardoned is a guy who used a stun gun on a police officer. Why does he deserve a pardon?

TRUMP: Well, I don't know

January 25, 2025

I'm signing an executive order to open up the pumps and valves in the north. We want to get that water pouring down here as quickly as possible ... you're talking about unlimited water coming up from the Pacific Northwest, even coming from parts of Canada.

Um. .. there aren't any such valves. This is pure batshit crazy.

In any normal time, this would send Donny to the retirement home.  It's completely nuts.

Also, fwiw, water flows from the Continental Divide, west.  Not from north to south.

cont:

We may be a very substantially enlarged country in the not too distant— Isn't it nice to see -- for years, decades, we’re the same size to the square-foot, probably got smaller actually but we might be an enlarged country pretty soon.

I actually figure at this point there's a good chance he's going to order the military to invade Canada. 

January 26, 2025

Okay, there is now this by the person who (illegitimately and illegally) claims to be the head of the most powerful nation on Earth.


No serious nation does this. The man is a dangerous fool.

25th Amendment.

Section 4

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Of course, this is aimed at the American public, with the presumption that being a mob tough guy is cute or admirable, rather than this depiction being childish and repressible.   

The American public may disagree, in which case, truly, it has become childish.

When we are past this era, and it won't be soon enough, the long lasting American anti intellectual streak in the culture has to end. Yes, some people really are smarter than other.  No, collective widom doesn't trump intellect.  People need to get educated.

January 29, 2025

We identified and stopped $50 million being sent to Gaza to buy condoms for Hamas. And you know what's happened to them? They've used them as a method of making bombs.

We didn't appropriate $50M for condoms for Hamas. 

Truly, this is rather weird, even for Donald Trump, and some people will believe it, which is pathetic.

January 30, 2024

A helicopter/aircraft collision occurred last night near Washington D.C.  The helicopter was a Blackhawk, and therefore a military helicopter.

Trump took to social media:


Let's face it.  Trump is simply stupid.  The nation has elected a wealthy, dimwitted, vengeful, ignoramus.

January 31, 2024

This is simply surreal:

January 31, 2025

This one is shameful beyond all measure:

This is, frankly, shameful in the extreme:

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION THE ADMINISTRATOR OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

SUBJECT:       Immediate Assessment of Aviation Safety

On January 29, 2025, a commercial aircraft and a military helicopter horrifically collided near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.  American families today woke up without their loved ones after what should have been a routine trip, and the entire Nation mourns the loss of the victims.

This shocking event follows problematic and likely illegal decisions during the Obama and Biden Administrations that minimized merit and competence in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).  The Obama Administration implemented a biographical questionnaire at the FAA to shift the hiring focus away from objective aptitude.  During my first term, my Administration raised standards to achieve the highest standards of safety and excellence.  But the Biden Administration egregiously rejected merit-based hiring, requiring all executive departments and agencies to implement dangerous “diversity equity and inclusion” tactics, and specifically recruiting individuals with “severe intellectual” disabilities in the FAA.   

On my second day in office, I ordered an immediate return to merit-based recruitment, hiring, and promotion, elevating safety and ability as the paramount standard.  Yesterday’s devastating accident tragically underscores the need to elevate safety and competence as the priority of the FAA. 

Consistent with the Presidential Memorandum of January 21, 2025 (Keeping Americans Safe in Aviation), I am further ordering the Secretary of Transportation (Secretary) and the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (Administrator) to review all hiring decisions and changes to safety protocols made during the prior 4 years, and to take such corrective action as necessary to achieve uncompromised aviation safety, including the replacement of any individuals who do not meet qualification standards.  This review shall include a systematic assessment of any deterioration in hiring standards and aviation safety standards and protocols during the Biden Administration.

Consistent with the Presidential Memorandum of January 21, 2025, the Secretary and the Administrator shall take all actions necessary to reverse concerning safety and personnel trends during the prior 4 years, instill an unwavering commitment to aviation safety, and ensure that all Americans fly with peace of mind.

Shameful.

Trump is pitting people against each other on racist grounds.  He's an embarrassment to the country.

It's worth watching when it's signed.  Trump has the appearance of a profoundly stupid man.

On his appearance, his physical condition is rather obviously declining quite rapidly.  He can no longer hide that he's bald and his hair is white. The orange tan stuff, which was always disgusting, isn't working.

Latest babble:


February 5, 2025

Trump proposed the Gazans be cleared out of Gaza and given new land, and the existing area become a real estate development belonging to the United States.

This came in a conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who pretty clearly thinks Trump is nuts.

If the Gazans could be resettled in a viable location, which won't happen, it would address much of their problems.  The US then owning Gaza as a sort of Levantine Club Med is bat shit crazy, however.  

Trump claimed Middle Eastern leaders thought this was a great idea, which they immediately denied.  It's pretty clear the major Middle Eastern powers also regard Trump as a lunatic.

This does provide, however, a real insight into his senile way of thinking. Trump, a real estate developer who really has nothing else to his credit, and lacks any moral character, thinks the whole world is just one big real estate developer.  Essentially he's a collision of amorality, senility, and capitalism.

February 23, 2025

February 24, 2025

King Donny appointed right-wing conspiracy theorist commentator Dan Bongino as deputy director of the FBI.

Okay, at this,  point, this has reached the mornic level.

March 8, 2025

During Trump's last call with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, Trump became so agitated that he started screaming profanities thus forcing U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to step in and give Canada what they demanded.

This is twice in a week where a cabinet officer suddenly acted independently in front of King Donny.

25th Amendment. . . 

April 16, 2025

As I began writing this, Trump was honoring President Nayib Bukele, who is likely the most popular leader in all of El Salvador. El Salvador has been in the news frequently due to the prison we are operating in collaboration with the Salvadoran government.. . 

 From I Could Be Wrong

April 18, 2025

The Congo in Africa. Many, many people come from the Congo. I don’t know what that is, but they came from the Congo.

Donald Trump, in a press conference with Giorgia Meloni.

My guess is the following set of photographs might be copyrighted, as I don't know who took them, but I'm posting them under the fair use exception for what they illustrate.


Meloni is exactly the sort of right wing populist leader MAGA people claim they want.  She's genuinely a far right politician, but not a babbling vengeful incoherent old guy.  Her expressions, and she's notoriously expressive, say it all. She can hardly stand being there.

cont:

WOMAN: It's an ice fishery, and it's been around since the early 1900s

TRUMP: So it's been around for millions of years

cont:

It's all about slavery and if you look at it that way, we should win that case.

Donald Trump on birthright citizenship.

April 19, 2025

While this thread is focus on Donald Trump, we can't help but note that Lauren Boebert stated Wall Street "is full of Communists selling their stock to hurt President Trump".

Truly, Republicans ought to really stop and think.  That's amazingly stupid.  

And then we have White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt who comes across as a total ditz.  In her defense, her job is shoveling shit, but none the less. 

April 20, 2025

Mad King Donny's admin launched a politicized COVID 19 site yesterday.

April 21, 2025

Trump's social media Easter post.

Happy Easter to all, including the Radical Left Lunatics who are fighting and scheming so hard to bring Murderers, Drug Lords, Dangerous Prisoners, the Mentally Insane, and well known MS-13 Gang Members and Wife Beaters, back into our Country. Happy Easter also to the WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Judges and Law Enforcement Officials who are allowing this sinister attack on our Nation to continue, an attack so violent that it will never be forgotten! Sleepy Joe Biden purposefully allowed Millions of CRIMINALS to enter our Country, totally unvetted and unchecked, through an Open Borders Policy that will go down in history as the single most calamitous act ever perpetrated upon America. He was, by far, our WORST and most Incompetent President, a man who had absolutely no idea what he was doing -- But to him, and to the person that ran and manipulated the Auto Pen (perhaps our REAL President!), and to all of the people who CHEATED in the 2020 Presidential Election in order to get this highly destructive Moron Elected, I wish you, with great love, sincerity, and affection, a very Happy Easter!!! From Donald Trump Truth Social 04/20/25 08:46 AM

This is extremely weird and ought to be evidence enough that Trump isn't well, and should be removed immediately.

April 22, 2025

Rumors are circulating that Pete Hegseth is about to be booted for a second texting war plans scandal.

April 23, 2025

You know, the cost of eggs have come down like 93, 94% since we took office. They are pretty much normally price now.

Donald Trump.

This is a complete lie.  And its such an absurd lie, that it once again raises questions about the sanity of the person saying it.

April 26, 2025

There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along.

Donald Trump.

April 29, 2025

With approval ratings taking, and this before the tariffs have even hit, King Donny is having a fit, and blaming the "fake news media".

April 29, 2025

Reporter: Who do you want to be the next Pope?

Trump: “I'd like to be Pope. That'd be my number one choice.”

April 30, 2025

I suppose this is supposed to be a joke, but it's really insulting.

May 1,2025

Trump, in an interview with Stephen Smith, a black reporter, about Harvard:

We had riots in Harlem and frankly if you look at what's gone on and people from Harlem went up and they protested, Stephen, and they protested very strongly against Harvard, uh, they happened to be on my side. ... I got a very high Black vote.

Uff.

Yesterday, a cabinet meeting was held which turned out to be a praise session of sycophants, with Pam Bondi's praise, claiming Trump had saved the lives of over 250,000,000 Americans the most bizarre and extreme.

The entire cabinet is basically nuts.

And so, after 100 horrific days, we'll make that the fitting close to the first installment of this 25th Amendment Watch List.

Related threads:

"The President of the United States of America is at war with the Constitution and the rule of law."