Showing posts with label You heard it here first. Show all posts
Showing posts with label You heard it here first. Show all posts

Friday, July 10, 2026

The 2026 Election, 14th Edition. The “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor" edition.

If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.

Desmond Tutu

 


June 26, 2026

The candidate running against Bob Ide:

Lisa Engebretsen: Protect Wyoming’s Public Lands and Reject the Seminoe Dam Project

Getting rid of Bob Ide should be an absolute priority for anyone who cares about: 1) Wyoming's wildlands, and 2) anyone who is not a multimillionaire. A diehard MAGA/WFC who was in Washington D.C. at the time of the January 6 insurrection (he did not take part in it), his "less government, more freedom" is an absolute joke.  He's a major Natrona County landlord whose very livelihood depends on the government protecting his rental lands property rights, which only exist due to the government.  He is apparently unaware of the hypocrisy.  

He's been amongst the most extreme members of the WFC.

June 30, 2026

The carpetbaggers of the WFC immediately resorted to name calling, of course.  Everyone who opposes them is "left wing", even if they aren't.

In Alaska there will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, one an incumbent and some other guy.

July 1, 2026

They sow the wind  and reap the whirlwind.

Hosea 8:7*

Well, everyone should have known this was coming.

For decades I've warned, in a somewhat different context, about self confident far right views being a mere fuze to ignite a left wing reaction.  In my case, the warning came in the context of local politics, both in ranching and oil and gas, where people confidently boast some local view not realizing there's a lot more of them, then us.

As some people have been warning, maps don't vote.

And now MAGA has poked the bear.

From the primary in Colorado, yesterday:

Democratic socialist Melat Kiros poised to become the first Gen Z woman in Congress

Now what's going to happen is some in Trump's orbit will attempt to make hay on this.  It's already happening. Donald Trump is warning everyone that there are Communists hiding in your Wheaties.  Little Mike Johnson is acting like a crying twat waffle.  Johnson is warning that people will go to jail.

People need to go to jail.

Now, I'm not a Socialist of any kind (I'm a distributist).  But this reaction is a real one, and running around doing the classic "when in trouble, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout" isn't going to do anything.  And on top of it, a lot of pundits who are arguing the Democrats better not turn far left are going to be proven to be way out to sea.

Now, by and large, most of the Democrats aren't far left.  But the fact that the GOP has become outright Francoist and doesn't stand for conservatism means that for those who are, there's no argument here.  And, moreover, some of the same demographic that voted for right wing populist will vote for left wing ones. This is well established.  Quite a few Nazis had been Communists.  Lots of former Nazis became East German Communists.  One plate of fanaticism tastes a lot like another, and for that matter, people who are drawn to fanatic policies will be 1) drawn to ones that seem like they might work, and 2) recoil from attacks on themselves.

Trump's policies aren't working.  The poor sots who voted for MAGA are worse off than they were before.  Hispanics have been targeted by MAGA racism.  Palestinians and other Arab Americans watched their votes translate into support for more egregious Israeli attacks in Gaza and a full scale war, that we can't win, against Iran.  Those votes are gone, as the recent election in New York has shown.

And now Melat Kiros, a 29 year old Notre Dame educated lawyer who was born in Ethiopia has beat a sitting Democrat for Colorado's 1st Congressional District.  That's Denver proper.  She has the courage of her convictions, having lost a job with a New York City law firm for criticizing law firms for being opposed to pro Palestinian protestors.

She's going to win in the general election.

This will not mean that the seat she'll be taking, like her fellow Democratic Socialist from New York, will go to a Democrat where they had been occupied by a Republican.  What it means is that there will be voices in the Democratic party that are much younger, and have a much different view, on some issues than the Democratic mainstream.  And her election makes the election of old geezer MAGA's like Harriet Hageman of Wyoming look absolutely absurd in comparison.

This will end up tilting the meter on some things a bit to the left in the 120th Congress, and that's going to matter, for instance, when the next Speaker of the House is chosen and Mike Johnson goes into the dustbin of history.  

Trump can and will yell about it.  But on the eve of the 250th anniversary of American independence, his big fete, the big "state fair".  Nobody is going.  That's pretty telling.

Well, again, sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

July 2, 2026

July 3, 2026

Gabriel Green has sued the State over residency requirements.  A long time Wyoming resident, he recently resided in Arizona so the Secretary of State, properly in my view, found he did not meet the residency requirements.

The Secretary of State's office faces two other election related legal actions at the presen ttime.

With this, we'll close out this edition.

July 7, 2026

WyoFile

ELECTION GUIDE 2026

Wyoming's candidates for federal, statewide and legislative offices.

Maine's Graham Platner has been accused by former girlfriend Jenny Racicot of sexual assault.  Politico broke the story.  Racicot made the comment:

One of the reasons I didn’t come forward sooner was, the huge moral conflict that I had between supporting his politics, but not supporting him as a person, I just want the truth out there. I just want people to have a whole scope of who he is as a person.

That doesn't quite make sense, frankly but the article in Politico is pretty detailed and the accusations are hard to discount.  Platner absolutely denies theme.

There have been calls, including from inside of Maine's Democratic Party, for him to withdraw from the race.  It's interesting for a variety of reasons, one being in any former era the candidate would either have to flat out attack the accuser back, or withdraw.  In the current Donald "grab them by the pussy" Trump era, for the GOP sexual assault has nearly been a "m'eh" type of thing.  It'll be hard for the Democrats to retain the high ground at this point if Platner stays in the race.

Of course, false claims of sexual assault against men do occur, although this does not read like one.  The curious thing would be why, if a person is guilty of the things she accuses him of, he'd risk running.  Having said that, we've seen a whole host of really vile behavior from GOP candidates who not only were willing to run or run for reelection, but have brushed their gross behavior off.

Platner looked to have a pretty good chance of booting ancient waffling Susan Collins out of the Senate.  Those chances appear to be really diminished now, which provides a nother reason for Platner to drop out.

July 8, 2026

GOP hypocrisy on Platner is just laughably stunning.

If he's guilty of what he's accused of, it's horrible and people should not vote for him, but reactions by people like Sen. Tom Cotton are really something.  He first claimed that when people who were similarly accused came up on the GOP side, Republicans wouldn't vote for them.

Then they said they only are dumping him, now that he's apparently ejecting from the campaign, as he can't beat Susan Collins.

Eh?

What about Donald "Grab them by the Pussy" Trump?  He's a serial polygamist who has bragged about seeing naked teenagers in a pageant dressing room and who hung out with two, not one, rich man who had a strong attraction to teenage girls, one of whom was a rapist of teenage girls. And Trump himself has been accused of raping teenage girls through his association with Epstein.  I don't know if he did it or not, and there's certainly credible reason to doubt it, but there's also some reason to believe the claims as well.  In other words, a person can rationally have his doubts about Trump, who if nothing else drew a drawing of what appears to be a young naked teenage girl in a birthday card to his pal, Epstein.

And then there's Matt Gaetz, who was creepy.

And then there's at least one GOP Congressman who hung on to the bitter end after his staffer with whom he had an affair self immolated.

And then there's Ken Paxton who has recently been running around the UK with his mistress, and who has a host of other past picadillos.

And then there's Pete Hegseth, who granted wasn't elected, but still.

Oh brother.

And, by the way, what President that Donny doesn't like didn't have  their (third) wife sprawled out nude in a seductive ad and didn't go to Epstein Island?  Biden, Bush, Obama. . . 

Geez.

Locally, Chuck Gray, picking up on the GOP flavor of the month, issued an angry screed in the form of a reel about needing to make the non problem of birthright citizenship illegal.  The latest "hoards of aliens are boarding jets to have babies in airports" thing is really not a problem, but the GOP has to have some way to explain really being ineffective and just spending all its time kissing Trump's ass and achieving nothing, so that as a scare tactic is in vogue.

July 9, 2026

At least as of this morning, Platner remained in the race while Democrats openly are trying to figure out who to replace him.

They have a great alternative, but so far she won't.

Republicans have tried to make hay on the Platner disaster, but so far they really haven't been able to. The principal reason is that the GOP is such a complete and utter moral sewer in the era of "Grab them by the Pussy Trump that they really can't, and they have to be careful about that before they look just completely absurd.

Right now, they look completely absurd.

Trump, of course, hung out with John Casablancas, which raises its own questions, before he hung out with Epstein, which re-raises them.  Even dismissing most of the Epstein claims, you have a conviction for sexual misbehavior that's just been back in the news, and you have what seems to be Carol Alt's credible claim that he outright groped her boobs when she was Epstein's girlfriend, and right in front of Epstein.  He definitely went to Epstein Island and he gave Epstein a birthday card of a nude illustration he did, and what appears to be a rather young nude at that.

And we won't even get to the host of other sexual creeps that are in the GOP right now.

All that makes efforts by people like Tom Cotton to say, "look a Democratic monkey is throwing pooh" rather absurd, as he's sitting in a pile of thrown pooh.

Anyhow, Platner has one defender of national renown. . . Donald Trump.  About Platner Trump stated:

It’s really a question of whether or not you believe the woman. A lot of people say big falsehoods,” 

He’s in a bind.

Trump's mind is mush, but I'll give him credit on this one, Platner is in a bind.

And Trump is right, it is a question of whether you believe the woman.

In recent years we've been publicly schooled to always believe the woman, but as odd as it may seem, women do lie about rape.  This doesn't seem like a lie, however.  For that matter, Alt's claims about Trump don't seem like a lie either.

It's pretty hard to know how often that really occurs, however.  What's much more clear is that a huge percentage of women who are sexually assaulted, and the estimates are that 1 in 4 women are in some fashion, don't report anything.  In Platner's case, it's hard to believe that the women aren't telling the truth. They have nothing to gain by lying at all, not even notoriety, which they do not seem to be seeking.

I guess that takes us back to Trump.  Alt, who is already famous, had nothing to gain either.  There's enough smoke out there, additionally, to believe that some sort of fire is burning in Trump tower.  It's clear, however, that he's going to die of old age before that smoke clears and the truth is discovered.  My guess is that it'll have some sort of accelerated JFK like timeline.  JFK, as we'll recall, was a sexual creep, which a lot of insiders knew at the time, but didn't reveal until decades later.  My guess is that a lot of that sort of stuff will start to come out regarding Trump's behavior, at least his known behavior, in the decade following his death.

Heather Cox Richardson has been mentioned as a replacement for Platner. 

Richardson is in the public eye a lot, or at least in the punditry class that's read by folks like me.  She's never run for anything and describes herself as a "Lincoln Republican". She's married to a Maine lobsterman.  So far she's declined.

That's really inexcusable.  Being a critic is fine, but if you are a critic and then called to serve, you better serve, or you have lost all credibility.

Cont:

And Platner is out.

Richardson, put up or shut up.

July 10, 2026

M'eh.  Giralt is still in the kiss Donald Trump's ass category.

Funny how activist politicians get at the local level.

And with this, we will end this edition.

Model, 1911, in cowgirl costume

Footnotes:

The full quote is: 

“They sow the wind

    and reap the whirlwind.

The stalk has no head;

    it will produce no flour.

Were it to yield grain,

    foreigners would swallow it up.

Last edition:

The 2026 Election, 13th Edition. The choosing lanes edition.

Friday, July 3, 2026

Court Watch Part VII. When the last law was down.

Lawyer, St. Thomas More, who was executed for his adherence to his faith. 

William Roper: So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!

Sir Thomas More: Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil?

William Roper: Yes, I'd cut down every law in England to do that!

Sir Thomas More: Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I'd give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!

Robert Bolt, A Man for All Seasons: A Play in Two Acts

The Justice Department is going after James Comey for posting a photo of seashells arranged to spell "8647" on a beach somewhere, asserting it was a death threat on President Trump.  Apparently this is due to the old use of the term "86" to do away with and "47" for Donald Trump's completely illegitimate but widely accepted illegal claim to be President.

It wasn't.

This prosecution will go nowhere whatsoever, but it is more evidence that everyone in the Trump Administration is essentially a fascist with no regard for reality or the rule of law right now.  We are in monumentally dangerous territory.  It's 1534 in the United States with Donald Trump our King Henry VIII.

And the spirt of the age has spread:

What Gray did was flat out illegal.  Gray is relying, in essence, on the advice of the Attorney General and when that's a defense, the attorney client privilege is waived.  The AG's office knows that, but it has to defend the privilege  It's being pretty assertive about it.

Gray needs to suffer the penalty of the law here.

Nobody is more opposed to abortion than I am.  I wouldn't allow for the largely bogus "rape and incest" exceptions that many people will.  But this is really beyond the Pale.  Powell should be ashamed of itself for even appoint this guy to its city council.

Elsewhere, in a nation where we brought a modern justice system, it's still functioning.

South Korean court extends prison sentence for wife of ousted president 

May 5, 2026

Headline in the CST:

Judges reject Trump push to obtain state voter rolls

But of course our Secretary of State, Chuck "If you disagree with me you are a radical communist, fascist, monarchist, podiatrist" Gray just handed Wyoming's over.

May 16, 2026

Smith hasn't been confirmed as US Attorney for Wyoming yet.

May 21, 2026

It appears that Trump's settlement deal in his IRS suit may actually prove to be a bridge too far for Senate Republicans.  

The deal, which frankly is the epitome of corruption, would create a slush fund to pay pardoned January 6 criminals for their inconvenience in being prosecuted as traitors to their country.  That's what they are, and they should not have been pardoned, but Trump sought to go one step beyond that and reward the pack of Horst Wessels.  Frankly, as soon as possible, the pardons should be unrung as illegitimate (Trump isn't a legitimate President and can't pardon anyone).  Anyhow, Republicans are openly balking on the slush fund, amazingly.  It must be really angering constituents, or just too much to stomach.

Indeed, they not only are balking, they sidetracked the ICE funding bill, showing that they're actually willing to do something that is guaranteed to send the Orange Mussolini into a screaming fit, but the fit will pit Trump's ICE demands up against his now open and obvious corruption and the hemorrhaging of the US budget.  It'll be interesting to see where this goes, as once they break with Trump, their relationship with Trump is broken, and if he doesn't come to heel, they can't.

By way of an analogous example, Massie wouldn't come to heel on the Epstein files, but he was one man.  Once it's a pack, it tends to grow.

So, a match is on.

May 29, 2026

A court ruled that Trump's adding his name to the Kennedy Center was illegal and ordered it removed within two weeks.

A different judge enjoined the IRS settlement slush fund from going forward.

June 2, 2026

Trump's insurrectionist slush fund seemed to be getting questioned by the court and now the Attorney General is saying it won't occur.

While Wyoming's Congressional delegation didn't protest it, a lot of Republicans in Congress were finding it to be a bridge too far.

June 3, 2026

Lawyers ask Wyoming Supreme Court to intervene in Gray voter data complaint

June 4, 2026

A Wyoming district court held that the whiney fascist crybabies leading the GOP have to follow state law and seat elected Republican precinct members, something another court did two years ago. The state central committee didn't want to do so as that keeps it from picking fascists.  

It argues that its a private entity and doesn't have to follow state law. . . except of course when it comes to getting preferential places on ballots, having the state run party elections for it, and getting to pick members of certain offices when they become vacant. It's fine with all of that.

Satire aside, this would have been an opportunity for the Court to wipe all of that out, and it should have.

June 5, 2026

Wyoming GOP sues state, challenges constitutionality of ban on pre-primary candidate endorsements

All they really have to do is to quit having state funded primaries.

June 15, 2026

Last Friday retired Judge Campbell struck down a series of provisions regarding abortion.  There was some chance that these would survive challenge, as they did not directly restrict abortion, such as there being a time delay after seeking one, an ultrasound, etc., but he ruled that the Wyoming Supreme Court's earlier decision meant that these were in the nature of health care and could not stand.

I disagree with him on that, but given the absurd Wyoming constitutional provision on health care I've addressed here before, and the S.Ct. decision, it's an understandable result.  It'll go on to be challenged at the Wyoming Supreme Court level, probably.

I keep wondering if anyone has argued the true existential aspect of the questions.  I don't know if that's been done or not.

On the nature of things, one of the local news outlets has had photos of a woman protesting holding a sign that says "Forced Birth = Violence".

Almost all abortions in the US are due to people who just had sex, and then sex resulted in what it results in. That's not forced birth, that's nature.  The common "well what about ten year olds" and the like brings up a case scenario that's exceedingly rare.  The reply to that would be to ask that person if they're opposed to all other abortions, which they are not.

Even at that, however, killing is killing.  It would be just as logical to go out and determine every living American who came about due to rape or tike and shoot them dead now.  Yes, rape and incest are horrible.  Murder is probably the ultimate horrible, however.

Apparently the S.Ct asked, in its opinion, why those challenging abortion in Wyoming don't seek to amend the constitution.  It was a constitutional amendment that got us here, so that makes sense.  So far nobody's lifted a finger to do that.  The likely reason is that they know that amending the provision to allow for making abortions illegal won't pass in the state.  Instead, they feel their odds are better litigating about it, or complaining about it.

On other matters, the case challenging the primary system filed by Skovgaard is a pro se case, as I suspected, meaning it has about zero chance of actually succeeding.

June 18, 2026

Gordon sues Board of Equalization, asks court to enforce property tax cap

The governor filed suit against the 3-member board he appointed after it said it could not certify non-uniform residential property tax assessments.

In other news, some members of the WFC are criticizing Wyoming courts as "activist", an absolutely absurd accusation, for not upholding the most recent abortion laws when the legislature itself is completely responsible for the constitutional amendment that causes those laws to do down in defeat.

The legislature could forward a repeal of that amendment, but it won't, as it's afraid that would go down in defeat.  The whole thing is an example of playing a stupid game and winning a stupid prize.

June 19, 2026

Court sides with challenger to law banning drug users from possessing guns

What could go wrong?

On the topic mentioned above, we'll note that that you heard it here first, but now the drumbeat pointing out the hypocrisy is getting pretty loud:

Tom Lubnau: Sure, Pass Unconstitutional Bills And Blame 'Activist Judges'

Lubnau really throws the gauntlet down, stating:

The fix is simple. Pass a proposed constitutional amendment. I'll draft it for them: Article I, §38 is amended to add subsection (e): Abortion is not healthcare for purposes of this Article. 

Come on Sanchez-Williams.  Come on Bear.  But your legislating where you claimed values are. 

June 29, 2026

A good result:

Court prevents Trump from firing Fed governor


A 5 to 4 decision, with Thomas writing the dissent.

A bad result:

Court allows Trump to fire FTC commissioner and overturns major restraint on presidential power

A great result, but again 5 to 4:

Justices uphold state law allowing for late-arriving mail-in ballots

Trump's already bitching about this one, complaining that this provides why the SAVE Act needs to be passed.

And another good result:

Supreme Court will not consider $5 million verdict against Trump

Cont:

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s order ending birthright citizenship

Yikes, that was the right result, but razor thin.

Cont:

And a bad one:

Justices strike down campaign finance law

Cont:

And a correct one:

Court rules that states can exclude transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports teams

July 3, 2025

A former Olympian has been falsely charged with vandalizing Donald Trump's Rhino Lined Algae pond as Trump is a baby and can't handle the truth.

These charges will fail, will result in a civil suit against the government which the government will ultimately settle for millions.

We've crossed the edge into the early stages of a fascist police state.

Gabriel Green has sued the State over residency requirements.  A long time Wyoming resident, he recently resided in Arizona so the Secretary of State, properly in my view, found he did not meet the residency requirements.

The Secretary of State's office faces two other election related legal actions at the presen ttime.

With this, we'll close out this edition.

Last edition:

Ballroom Batshit. A demented president goes full bonkers. The 25th Amendment Watch List Fifteenth Edition and Court Watch Part VI.

Friday, May 15, 2026

China is Closing In on Taiwan.

With China having just been visited by our extraordinarily weak, and increasingly demented chief executive, this really bears watching.


Trump's illegal war on Iran has depleted US weapons reserves massively and wasted them on hard ground targets, something military analysts know is ineffective.  We have less of an ability to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan now than at any point since. . . well. . . probably 1947.

The likelihood of it happening his high.

The likelihood of Trump doing utterly nothing if it does happen is also high.

In 1949, when mainland China fell to the Communists, Republicans howled over "who lost China?"  In 2026 or 2027 when Taiwan falls, they'll probably just kneel to their beloved, Donald Trump.

The question will be, why?

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

So it's clear from the onset, I don't care one bit about the World Cup. . .

I couldn't care less that its being hosted in the United States, and in the Trump era, I expect the whole thing to be one big, dumb spectacle.  

Go way World Cup.

Sunday, May 10, 2026

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 134th Edition. Paying the cost of failed Reconstruction.

Henry Mosler's painting "The Lost Cause", depicting an uneducated Southern dupe returning to his destroyed home after having fought for rich Southerners who wanted to keep human beings in barbours slavery.

Two related items:

Tennessee's Redistricting Fight and the Long Shadow of the Civil War

and this one:

The Confederacy rises again

The biggest political mistake the US has ever made was not engage in radical reconstruction after the American Civil War.  To have served in an officer, or frankly even as a volunteer, in the Confederate Army should have been regarded as fully treasonous and never forgiven. Those who did should have been tried and given heavy sentences.  Men like Robert E. Lee should never have been allowed to walk the streets as free men again.  

Slave holders, no matter how small they were, should have had to compensate their former slaves or their decedents heavily.  On the principal that the land belongs to he who works it, a means of transferring agricultural land to the former slaves should have been devised.

This is, I'd note, the second time the country has gone through this Lost Cause crap.  The cause of the Southern States during the Civil War ranks right up with that of Nazi Germany as one of the worst causes people have every fought for.  The South should have been made to hang its head in shame, as the Germans were after World War Two.  And  yet, here we go again.

If there's any good thing about any of this is that the rise of the Lost Cause yielded to the Civil Rights Era.  Americans thought they'd finally one the promise of the country, although Liberals and Progressives certainly took that claimed victory beyond what it meant and should have mean in other ways.  Everyone has been reminded of that, now that the fulfillment of the result of Reagan's Southern Strategy has been afflicted upon the nation in form of the Trump Administration.

Last edition:

CliffsNotes of the Zeitgeist, 133d Edition. What happened to that Board of Peace?


Friday, March 13, 2026

A theory very close to the one I've advanced here.

Will Don be saying, et tu, J.D.?

From the always excellent Uncle Mike's blog:

Vance the Bully's Flunky

I still think my theory is more likely, but its interesting that I'm not the only one who is traveling this line of thought.

Uncle Mike, as he makes clear, believes that the plan is to wait until next year at which time the illegitimate occupant of the Oval Office, billionaire insurrectionist Donald Trump, will be impeached and removed from office, there by installing Vance as President.  It's an interesting theory.

The problem with it, I think, is that it requires the cooperation of a fair number of Republican Senators to go along with it.  I don't think they have the guts.  Senators like Wyoming's John Barrasso have proven so spineless that he's being examined by the Washington D.C. zoo for a place in the invertebrate display.  To be fair, they fear their voters, and in some areas, like Wyoming, the MAGA delusion is so deep that a lot of its adherents will carry it to the gave where they'll have to ask questions about why they supported an illegal war launched by an immoral serial polygamist while the environment went to pot. Barrasso will be right there with them, saying "they made me do it so I could keep my job".

Anyhow, I don't think enough Republican Senators will go along, unless the Senate GOP starts to hemorrhage pretty severely this November, in which case their save their job instincts will start to kick in.

My theory, which I've held here for a long time, is a bit more sinister.  

I've thought since before the election that the plan was to let Trump slip into increasingly worse dementia and then remove him just before the November election via the 25th Amendment.  That's nearly win/win for Vance.  It might cause a huge sigh of relief amongst independents who are refugee Republicans and the two or three Republicans who aren't MAGA, saving some of the election.  It also might give cover to candidates like Chuck Gray whose platform is that they love Trump so much, they want to be his adoring handmaiden.   If he's gone, they can go to the cabinet, pull out the bottle of Old Crow, put on the Boomtown Rats single I Never Loved Eva Braun, and start acting like sentient mammals.

If it doesn't save the election, Vance can still be President for two years and start pulling the "I'm not responsible for this particular stupid Don idea" while also blaming the Democrats for everything else.  Shoot, as the war against Iran will still be going on by then, he can declare victory and declare himself a hero, even if we haven't won by then, and we won't have.

Anyway you look at it, getting into office before Trump's term ends is Vance's only hope.  People don't like him.  The stench of Trump will attach too much for him to win on his own merits, and those merits, if you want to call them that, are not MAGA, they're NatCon.

The problem at this point is that while allowing Trump to get wackier and wackier serves their interests, we get deeper into bat shit crazy weird territory every day.  As it is, we're at war now, it would seem, as Bibi thought this was his chance and Bibi, Putin, and rich people, some of whom are in the Epstein files, are the only people Trump listens to.  We are in an area in which there are, now, hardly any limits, thanks to the Supreme Court.  If Bibi tells Donny nuking Tehran is okay, there's no guarantee an addled Trump wouldn't do it, although we can still hope that there's backchannel conversations in the DoD about how far they let this go before they just start saying no.

Presumably, if Donny comes in and says, "hey guys, I'm going to put the ball room here and it will be fun to have a march through a triumphal arch after I nuke Tehran, let's do that today so we can fight North Korean next week and put on a cabaret in Havanna!" the cabinet will still say no, but again, the problem is that the people in this administration, with a hand of exceptions, might actually be too far gone themselves.  Markwayne Mullin?  For goodness sake, he needs to be sent back to 6th grade and be reminded you don't wear your hat indoors, not given a job with the administration.  Steve Miller?  Yikes.  

Well, smoke and mirrors and backrooms.  Marco probably is angling for the Presidency himself and doesn't want to be too tarred with Trump feces.  There are probably others still.

By June or July we'll know if I was right.

A good clue I might be is that since the war with Iran started, Vance is hard to find.

Monday, January 26, 2026

The Trump Administration decides the Second Amendment ain't that much.


Yeoman, January 6, 2025.

Alex Pretti, who was shot down by the Border Patrol, with Border Patrol shooting ten rounds.1

I'm seeing one of my predictions about the Second Trump Administration coming true.

Everyone should have seen it.

Of the many people I know who voted for Donald Trump, there were three groups of what I'd call "single issue" voters who voted for him on the solid belief that he shared their views on one single issue, and that overrode everything else. There are: 1) opponents of abortion2 , 2) opponents of gun control, 3) opponents of wars overseas ("forever wars").3

Trumps betrayed you, if you are in one of these categories, on all three.

The betrayal on gun control is simply epic.

A few days ago the Border Patrol gunned down Alex Pretti.  They actually shot ten shots.  People will defend the Border Patrol on this, but it's indefensible.  He was carrying a handgun legally, and it had been removed from him before he was killed.4

For decades the NRA insisted that Americans, and indeed everyone everywhere, had an absolute right to carry a firearm anywhere and campaigned for the right to carry, concealed and unconcealed, everywhere.5   Pretti had availed himself of that right.  He was going absolutely nothing illegal at the time he was gunned down.

The Administration's reaction has been to make every left wing gun control argument you've ever heard.

I don't know of any peaceful protester that shows up with a gun and ammunition rather than a sign.

Kash Patel.  Well, Kash, don't come to Wyoming then.  There aren't any, and I mean any, largescale demonstrations were people aren't carrying, concealed and unconcealed. Shoot, I saw a guy with a M1 Garand and fixed bayonet a couple of years ago.

Patel tried to claim that Pretti was breaking the law by carrying a sidearm at a protest, apparently ignoring that this guy became a hero for something like that:


Minneapolis police officials, at any rate, quickly disabused that notion, noting in the press and on Face the Nation that this simply isn't true.  Pretti wasn't breaking the law.

That same comment was made House Majority Leader Steve Scalise who was flat out confronted by Margaret Brennan on the same topic on Face the Nation.  Scalise stumpbed all over himself and said he was for the Second Amendment had had sponsored a concealed carry law down in Louisiana, but that if you are carrying a gun while breaking the law it's a felony, and Pretti was breaking the law.

Pretti wasn't breaking the law, but it does give you a pretty good idea of what the former Republican Party, now the Fascist Party, thinks of the 1st Amendment as well as the 2nd.

The ever nervous Scott Bessent had to appear on Meet the Press.

KARL: He was an ICU use who worked for the VA and there's no evidence he brandished the gun whatsoever

BESSENT: But he brought a gun

KARL: I mean, we do have a Second Amendment

BESSENT: I've been to a protest -- guess what? I didn't bring a gun. I brought a billboard

The always nervous Scott Bessent.6   

Bessent has been to a protest?  Was it a super megabucks soybean protest? 

Same thing here.  Now bringing a gun to a protest marks you for death.

Kristi Noem, whose thugs committed the killing, really went after Pretti, calling him a domestic terrorist.  That is now the official line for any of these protestors, they're terrorists.  Neom sated:

I don't know of any peaceful protester that shows up with a gun and ammunition rather than a sign.

Noem falsely accused Pretti of brandishing the weapon.

Stephen Miller called Pretti "an assassin" and accused him of trying to murder Federal agents.  

J. D. Vance repeated that lie, and Gregory Bovino more or less did.  Only Trump, who was initially claimed to have said something falsely, apparently hasn't.

    Ironically, it was the press and the police that were defending Second Amendment rights to carry the past couple of days. You shouldn't bring a gun to a protest.  Pretti's handgun, which is a fairly typical 9mm SIG, was a "military weapon" (it is, but just about any semi automatic handgun could be), he had "multiple magazines".

    And finally, we have the Dear Leader himself:

    I don’t like any shooting. I don’t like it. But I don’t like it when somebody goes into a protest and he’s got a very powerful, fully loaded gun with two magazines loaded up with bullets also. That doesn’t play good either.

    Donald Trump.7 

    Basically, the Administration's position is that if you are carrying a handgun, the Federal Government can gun you down.

    All things right out of the left wing gun control handbook.

    The very thing, I"d note, that the NRA warned us about, in regard to the Federal Government, with the irony being it comes right from the man they backed.

    Not that any of this should be a surprise.  I've never felt for a moment that Trump had any actually affinity for firearms or was a member of "gun culture".8    He's a salesman, and he sold gun owners a line of bull.

    Now they know better.  But it will be too late.

    The things is, however, the accomplishments on the Second Amendment have been made. They can be taken away.  Therefore, a real "fool me once" thing is at play here.  A lot of gun owners are going to keep backing Trump as they'll refuse to think on this.  

    And that's why support for Trump will prove to be too late.  W.E.B. Dubois declared that "only a fool never changes his mind".  How many gun owners will choose to be fools?

    Footnotes:

    1. The large number of shots suggest that the Border Patrol falls into the keep shooting category of policing, which many large city police do as well.  

    I'm not a fan of magazine capacity laws, but I"m at the point where I don't think most policemen of any type should carry a firearm at all, and that when they do, it's time to go back to .38 revolvers.  They're simply less likely to kill people if they are med in that fashion

    2.  A lot of people who find this to be a deep moral issue, and I do see it that way, voted for Trump on the false belief that they had no other choice.  There were other choices.

    Now Trump is urging his supporters to soften their opposition to abortion. Mitch McConnel gets credit for the conservative judiciary that Trump put in place, which issued the Dodds decision, but there would be no real strong reason to feel that Trump cares much about the issue himself.

    Trump's own sexual history is immoral, and usually multiple partners indicates a casual attitude towards abortion.  There's nothing to indicate that any of Trump's tarts had one, but he has shifted his position, and its still shifting, over the years.  

    3.  Trump really likes to brand himself as a peace president but there are no wars that the US was involved in when he took office that we are now out of, the only real lingering one being the war in Syria.  He's started a new conflict in Venezuela, conducted a largescale mixed result raid in Iran, and appears to about to hit Iran again.

    4.  Pretti's parents said that they knew he had a permit, but didn't know him to actually carry.  I'm in the same category.

    My reaction is probably a lot like a lot of people in Pretty's category.  I'm going to start carrying.  

    5. A spokesman from the NRA initially defended the shooting, slightly, and then the organization, waking up to the fact that it's about to be dumped by its members (it's already in financial trouble) backtracked and came out supporting carrying, but in a very muted fashion.

    6.  Bessent is another figure who doesn't square with what MAGA claims its view of the world is.  He's an open homosexual in a homosexual union, something that MAGAs declare as abhorrent and which they repeatedly sneered at Biden's Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and his Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre for.  It's been interesting that Buttigieg and Jean-Pierre were condemned for the very same thing that Bessent does at home, the point being that like a lot of members of fascist movements, MAGA adherents will suspend all of their supposedly deeply held beliefs to follow the leader.

    7. The two magazine thing is a real left wing talking point.  

    Use of the terms "very powerful" and "bullets" in place of cartridges almost always demonstrates firearms ignorance.  9mm pistols are not "very powerful". Quite the contrary. That's why some police forces simply blaze away with them, and why soldiers are taught to shoot an opponent more than once.  The 9mm should be a good police round for that very reason as its unlikely to kill anyone with a single shot.

    8.  I'll have to get into gun culture, which I use as a positive expression, not a negative one, elsewhere, but I've never trusted anyone in the Second Amendment movement who wasn't an active member of a shooting sport, if even only a collector.  While Eric Trump is a hunter, Donald Trump's only outside interest seems to be the incredibly boring sport of golf.  If you can shoot, you wouldn't send much time on the golf course.

    Wayne LaPierre, the former head of the NRA, struck me that way also, but I don't really know much about him.  Chuck Gray in Wyoming strikes me that way also, although I could of course be wrong.