Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Tuesday, October 6, 1936. Yankees take the series.

The New York Yankees beat the New Your Giants in game six of the World Series, thereby winning the 1936 World Series.

The anarchist Regional Defence Council of Aragon was established.  It would control the eastern half of Aragon for a year until the Spanish Republic dissolved it due to pressure from Communists.  Spain, of course, had already fallen into civil war earlier in the year following the Popular Front victory in the Spanish elections.

Wednesday, October 6, 1926. World Series Record.

Pennsylvania''s blue laws from 1794 were invoked in Pittsburgh, banning all Sunday sports in the city.

This is interesting in a variety of ways, particularly in that it takes a very Puritan view of the topic.  In Catholic England sports on Sunday had been a huge deal, part of the Catholic view of life that Sunday, the Lord's Day, was a sort of feast.  Puritans, however, held a dour view on everything, and during the Cromwellian period, banned sports.  

All in all, for what it's worth, I think blue laws are a good idea.  I wouldn't ban sports, however.  I would, if I could, shut down Sunday commerce however, even electronic commerce.

Babe Ruth hit his third home run in the 1926 World Series.  The Yankees beat the St. Louis Cardinals 10 to 5.  This has only been repeated twice, once in 1977, by Reggie Jackson, and once in 2011, by Albert Pujols.

Last edition:

Monday, October 4, 1926. Cristero War in Guanajuato, Phar Lap, Radio recipes.

October 6, 1876. American Library Association founded.

 


Last edition:

The 2026 Election, 23rd Edition. Stein's Law meets the GOP. The hints of a mutiny edition.

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

Herbert Stein.

September 23, 2026

Something is actually going on in the GOP for the first time since the Dixiecrat MAGA insurgency took control of the party and made it a populist party.

Bit and pieces of the signs are everywhere, all of a sudden.  Stein's Law has arrived.

GOP candidates are in trouble all over the country and now they're starting to dump Trump.  A good example of this is Congressman Ashley Hinson, who is trying to do the same thing that Harriet Hageman is trying to do, which is to move into a retiring Senator's spot.  She's in real trouble in that effort and recent polls indicate that she's behind. The Republican seat appears slated to go to a Democrat.  The GOP sent out John Barrasso to stump for her, an odd choice as Barrasso isn't inspiring on his alleged home turf, but the thought must have been that the Senate Whip could show how Hinson winning would help the Dear Leader.

Well, that message didn't seem to take. So Hinson started to bolt.  From her Facebook.

Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices. 

That includes suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, unleashing E-15 everywhere we can, reinstating the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit, and creating a diesel relief program to help our farmers and truckers being crushed by the high costs. 

While doing this, we should also ensure our highway trust fund is replenished, so that Iowans don’t suffer from crumbling roads and bridges while relief comes our way now. These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.

I am working every day to deliver bipartisan results for Iowans and I will work with anyone who is ready to tackle this challenge immediately.

She otherwise demanded that the war against Iran be stopped.

Hinson had voted against the War Powers Resolution every time it's been voted on in the House, and did so just a week prior, so she's voted to keep the war rolling.  Now she wants it over.  Fuel prices are the reason why.

Closer to home, there are all of a sudden all sorts of die-hard right wingers who are criticizing Trump.  Whether that translates over to opposing Trump lover Chuck Gray and Trump supported Harriet Hageman is another thing, but there's definitely stirring in the ranks.

Indeed, Cowboy State Daily carpetbagging columnist Dave Simpson went into a "boo hoo' fit about the whole thing, wondering if the imaginary Sweet Home Alabama Wyoming he believes to have existed has gone "wobbly".

Go home Dave.  You drank too much WFC Kool aide.

Elsewhere, Wyoming teachers are organizing against the attempt to bankrupt the state:

Teachers, hospital leaders launch $1M campaign to fight property tax ballot measure

And it's been noted that Wyomingites are voting their interests:
Beyond that, the revolt is getting large enough that as early as it is, we're now seeing the non Trump GOP start to reemerge from the bunkers for the 2028 races, with Chris Christie having basically indicated that he's running.

Elections are not over, until their over, but it is clear that the GOP, and for that matter Trump, have no idea on how to hold on to the Senate, let alone the House.  Doubling down on all the old tired lines (the Red Chinese are coming to have babies, date your daughters, steal your lunch) isn't working.  The MAGA base was always the demographic that was most vulnerable to an economic downturn and now it's suffering.  Agriculture, a Republican base, can't deal with the high fuel and fertilizer prices.  Trucking can't deal with the high prices either.  Regular people don't like the high prices at the grocery store and nobody likes the high fuel prices in the West.

This can't and won't be fixed by the election. The war against Iran won't be over and fuel prices will be high unless a ban on exports tanks the price of diesel, which it likely won't.

It took a lot, but people seem to be waking up to being lied to.  Moreover, as that happens, Trump gets weirder and weirder by the day.

One place that appears now almost inevitable to go to the Democrats is Texas, where Texas Democratic Senate James Talarico has seen a 28-point swing in vote share against Ken Paxton.  

Cont:

Fresh from getting its head handed to it in the primary, where its endorsements didn't pan out for the most part, the Dixiecrat controlled central committee of the Wyoming Republican Party has endorsed the property tax cut bill that would gut local governments like fish.
Basically, the Dixiecrat Wyoming Freedom Caucus hates the Gubbement and figures that stuff like education and the like can be handled by Ella Mae back at home.


September 24, 2026


September 25, 2026

Dixiecrats are moving over to their rightful home:

Rod Miller wrote an op ed on this and I've been meaning to post on it, so I'll just comment here.  Bextel moving over to the Constitution Party, delusional though she is, is a good thing if it causes other Dixiecrats of the WFC to follow her, and they should.  Here, a prominent Hot Springs politician has done just that.  

The Constitution Party, which believes in a double secret constitution written in crayon and visible only through secret decoder glasses may pull over 10% in the election, which would make it a good place for people from the WFC to pack up their gray kepis and go and be "real".  As is actually they, not traditional Wyoming Republicans, who are the aberration, they'd be doing themselves a favor, they'd have more voice in the CP, but the Republican Party and the State one as well.  It'd allow the GOP to shake off the chains of the Confederacy which the WFC is attempting to bind it with.

In this environment, it might be noted, it's amazing that the Democrats can't get more traction than they are, but they aren't.  Byrd still stands a good chance, but he's about the only one outside of the very few Democrats holding seats in the legislature.

September 29, 2026

From here on out in the election we're going to see Bat Shit Crazy on full display nearly every day.

Apparently not realizing that the election is a referendum on Donald Trump, a couple weeks ago Trump urged votes to imagine he's on the ballot.

The Republican problem is that voters are doing just that.

If people think back to the 2024 Presidential Election, most voters were never very keen on Trump. The most commonly expressed opinion going into the election was that voters disliked both candidates.  The Democrats screwed themselves by running Biden, which was simply insane.  Republican voters in the primary were in part MAGA true believes, but that misses the point that a lot of Republicans have left the party.  When Biden dropped out, way too late, the Democrats did the typical Democratic thing and killed themselves by nominating a Kamala Harris, about the most irritating candidate they could have found.

2024 is in the rear view mirror of course, but what's been missed in the Trumpian Reign of Terror is that most people went into 2025 disliking Donald Trump and it's gone downhill from there, something made worse by the fact that this administration is made up of the cynical advantageous and those with some agenda, often a deluded one.

With that mix, Trump has had a free hand in acting like a mad king, and he's made the most of it.  People with an agenda, moreover, are fully exercising their one and only chance to try to pull it off.  

Trump's pretty clearly aware of this, in spite of his addled state.  It explains the constant effort to build monuments to himself.  In spite of what some in the far right Evangelical camp believe, there's pretty good reason to doubt Trump's belief in an afterlife.  He certainly hasn't lived like he believes in one.  So he's trying to make sure we remember him as a great man in terms of architecture and conquest.

It's all going to fail.

Trump doesn't seem to be able to grasp that people do not love him.  He's a narcissist who is profoundly in love with himself.  The worst, therefore, nightmare of his life is unfolding.  A lot of motivated people who range from horrified to absolute contempt are going to boot the GOP out of the House, and now it looks like the Senate, and for the very reasons that Trump has urged us to do.  They're voting on him, as the GOP has become a sycophantic personality cult.  

People don't love him.

From now until the election Trump will pull out all the stops to try to keep the result he fears from happening. Anything he can legally get away with he will try.   It'll be a long month until the election.

On not loving Trump, it's a shame Wyomingites don't have a better option to contest Chuck Gray.

Gray has made a career out of loving Trump more than Trump loves Trump. That's about all he has going for him.  We're about to send somebody completely unqualified to do anything for the State to Congress.  Would that somebody other than Johnson and Kinney were running. Neither stand a chance, and they don't really deserve to. 

If none of the above were an option in that race, that'd be the one that would win.

Speaking of Gray, Gray has been showing up at UW football games recently and having pictures taken with students.

It's pathetic.

September 30, 2026

Wyoming Secretary of State and GOP candidate for Congress Chuck Gray emerged from hiding from debate requests, while he's not going to UW football games to be photographed with students, to congratulate the Supreme Court for temporarily upholding 

October 1, 2026

The backers of a data center in Natrona County invited Republican candidates for the County Commission to tour the site and omitted the Democratic candidates.

The GOP candidates are Lisa Jamieson (Democrat), Matt Keating (Republican), Ray Pacheco (Republican), Candace Machado (Democrat) and Dallas Laird (Republican).

We haven't addressed this race much yet, but Laird is a 1,000,000 years old and needs to go.  Keating was a somewhat controversial commissioner and then a somewhat controversial assessor.  He's been battling cancer.  Pacheco is a City of Casper councilman.  Machado was a controversial mayor of Evansville.

October 4, 2026

The Gillette News Record ran an article about a Campbell County event of the meet the candidate type in Gillette for Bextel.  It was held at The Railyard, which is a restaurant in Gillette.  It's a fair sized restaurant but not huge.  Apparently about 20 people went, which shows how little interest Bextel's campaign is drawing.

Her campaign does receive media attention as she's able to run it and it's so unusual.  I hesitate to post on her regularly as it makes her look like a bigger deal than she really is.  It is interesting however.

For one thing, Bextel keeps stating the "I didn't want to do this but had to" type of line. Nobody has to run for anything. What that really means is that the Dixiecrat is suddenly awake to the fact that Wyoming isn't 1960s Alabama and is terrified of what that means.

Also, Bextel continues to use some crude language.  I guess that's no shock in this day and age but at least to some it sort of edges her towards Southern White Trash, which isn't a good look for anyone. 

Those in attendance asked why Hageman and Gray (Gray stayed at her house, apparently, while campaigning) haven't come to her support.

As if.

Politics is a backstabbing game and there's no way that Hageman and Gray are going to buck the GOP for anyone.

Some local politicians showed up, which risks their being associated with her.  I don't blame them for showing up, but the press coverage might be a deterrent to that occurring in the future.

October 5, 2026

More on the Gillette News Record article.

Bextel claims that Harriet Hageman went after Barlow in a major way in a discussion with her personally, claiming that she said he was "pure evil".  Bextel is clearly a bit baffled why Gray and Hageman don't come to her aid in her race.

She also has a theme, or maybe a sort of obsession, with "weak men", which she claims include the current Governor, Barlow, and some other male Republicans.  It's odd.

Bextel has always been a curious figure, to the extent we know anything about her, but her naivete on why Hageman and Gray (she mused she wondered what they have on Hageman), is amusing. Gray and Hageman are on a glide path to higher office, in spite of not being very good choices, and they don't want to ruin it by supporting Bextel who is a crash and dive to political oblivion.

And once again we see the South sort of rearing up in the Dixiecrat Wyoming Freedom Caucus.  Bextel crudely claimed she had bigger "balls" than Barlow and interprets them not being in Nathan Bedford Forrest's Partisan Rangers as their being weak males.  There's a certain sort of peculiar early 20th Century literary quality to this.

Becky, the Southern Damsel, coming to rescue us all. . . 

Go home Becky.

October 6, 2026

Just looking at net chatter, the boo hoo Dixiecrats who think they are conservatives are appearing to break for Bextel in surprising numbers.  She won't win, but it'll be interesting to see if the Constitution Party is able to ride her back into 10% of the vote and be qualified as a "major party".  

That wouldn't be a bad thing if it drug the Allemands, Bears, etc., over to that party, where they really belong.

I'm guessing they won't make the 10%.

As was seen in the last election, the Dixiecrat WFC is noisy as well as deluded, but it doesn't enjoy much support from real Wyomingites.

Another question is whether the Democrats are able to make 10% themselves.

They should, as one of the GOP candidates, Chuck Gray, is held widely in contempt.  The problem is that the Democrat opposing him is Lisa Kinney.  

Gail Symons wrote an op-ed on this topic for the Cowboy State Daily.


I'm seeing a lot of moderate Republicans declare support for Kinney, and some for Johnson, but both candidates are really unattractive options.  Kinney is singularly uninspiring and comes from the ancient Democrat demographic that caused the Democrats to slip into oblivion here.  If the candidate came from the Mike Sullivan wing of the party, Chuck would be doomed.  In spite of GOP support for her, Kinney is really hard to get enthusiastic about.

So is Johnson for that matter, and the Libertarians in general.

A debate would be really helpful but Chuck is hiding and won't debate.

For people like me this is really a problem.  I'd like to see Gray loose so badly that he moves to Russia and takes a job as the toilet bowl cleaner in the Kremlin, but both of the other two candidates are really lacking.  The Libertarian Party in general is always subject to a caution flag, although in Wyoming Libertarians are often moderate Republicans looking for someplace else to go following the Dixiecrat seizure of the party.

This one will be interesting to see how many people just can't vote for the other two non GOP candidates and therefore simply don't vote.  My guess is that there will be a lot.  My guess also is that Kinney will take a larger percentage of the vote than Democrats normally do on this race, which is usually about 25%.  I could see her getting at least up to 30%, maybe 35%.  I don't expect Johnson to do as well, but he might be able to draw 10%.

Overall, it's not impossible to imagine Kinney and Johnson together pull down over 50% of the vote, but probably not much more than that.  Still, if that happens, Gray will be a Congressman with the minority of the vote.

Of course, this year, who knows.  It's not completely impossible that Wyoming might elect a Democrat, although by the slimmest of margins, to the House for the first time in years.  If it did, it would have a member of what's going to be the majority party in the House, and it would really give the Freedom Caucus the middle finger salute.

It'll also be interesting to see how many votes Byrd draws.  Lummis' opponent in 2026, Merav Ben-David, drew 27% of the vote in an election in which former Congressman Lummis was going to win no matter what.  Hageman has a lot more fanatic supporters than Lummis ever did, but she also has a lot more people who detest her as well.  Byrd is a much stronger candidate than Ben-David, and Hageman has been hiding from debating him.  Hageman showed up at a town hall somewhere recently and gave her usual poor performance.  She's not good at handling negative questions at all, which is surprising given that she was a practicing attorney.  Byrd might outright slaughter her in a debate.

Hageman also is taking flak from the disaffected Dixiecrats of the Freedom Caucus.  Bextel complained in a town hall in Gillette about Hageman not endorsing her.  Hageman endorsed Degenfelder in the Governor's race which upset the Dixiecrats as they, and the GOP they control, had endorsed Bien.  Of course Trump endorsed Degenfelder, it was the point of her entire campaing, and Hageman sure wasn't going to buck Donald on that.  Still, some disaffected WFC types are now mad at Hageman a bit.   

I suspect they'll get over it, but a tiny percentage will write in Bien or just refuse to vote.  One WFC person I know fairly well has outright declared they will not support Hageman, and another gadfly local WFC member has indicated that they're writing in Bien.  

Byrd is definitely going to do better than Ben-David.  I'm guessing that Byrd will draw at least 35% of the vote.  That's not enough, of course, to get elected, but I'd also guess that Bien will still draw about 5% of the vote.  That'd still leave Hageman with 60%, and that's likley, but it's not completely impossible that she draws under 50%. 

Appendix


Last edition:


Additional labels:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 12, the Deflect and Deny edition.


October 2, 2026.

We are, of course, about one month away from the General Election and it's universally agreed that, at least as of right now, the economy is not doing well, which is to say that it's not doing well for average people.  Having said that, all the monkeying around Trump has done with the economy has not resulted in a general collapse, as some feared.  This tends to give credence to the assertion that some make that the American economy in general is so strong that it tends to keep on chugging along in spite of everything.  

Having said that, prices on many things have gone up, and are now at the paint point for average people.  Beef prices, for example, are up about 25%.  That can't really be blamed on Trump, as its due to a historically low cattle heard, but Trump's efforts to address it were pretty much non existent at first, and the ineffectual when they were tried.

Beef Imports Haven’t Lowered Prices As Hoped. ‘I Told You So,’ Says Wyo Rancher

Addressing the price can only really come through a recovery of the North American herd.  Trump's constant crazy hatred of Canada and Canadians isn't helping this at all, as Canada is part of the North American market.  Mexican cattle, which had been banned from coming into the US due to screwworm, which we're not hearing much about, which is concerning, have started to come back in. That is likely to  have some effect.

Petroleum prices have shot up enormously since Trump started an ill advised and poorly planned war on Iran for no real discernable critical objective.

Wars are inflationary by their very nature, but attacking a critical global petroleum supplier is definitely going to be inflationary, and this is set to really start hitting home.  Everything in the US, whether it moves by truck, by rail, or in the air, uses petroleum.  That impacts the price of 100% of American goods.  Gasoline, Diesel fuel and Aviation fuel is way up in price.  Heating oil is up 50% to 70% just as we're entering the season where it starts to be used on the East Coast. NOAA, which usus science, predicts a warm winter in the East, like last years, so that might not be as impactful as it could be.  The Old Farmers Almanac, which I put no stock in whatsoever, predicts a cold winter.

An interesting side impact of the cost of things is that even Wyomingites are looking at electric vehicles.  I overheard a conversation the other day in which two people were wishing to get them, and they're both highly conservative individuals.  A report on increasing EVs appeared in one of the local online journals today.

Is Wyoming Going Electric? EV Registrations Surge Tenfold In Two Years

There are still a lot of naysayers out there, but there were when automobiles started to become common for that matter.

Anyway, the Trump Administration has handed out its flood of excuses for all of this, starting at first with "it's Joe Biden's fault".  Everything is Biden's fault according to Trump, whom while he routinely falls asleep in public still calls Biden, on occasion, "Sleep Joe".

The it's all Biden's fault is no longer selling very well so the "it's not much to pay to keep Iran from getting a bomb" has been tried and is still being tried, but it's not selling that well . First of all, well informed people know that while Iran is a very secretive state, the evidence that it was about to make a nuke is thin.  And frankly Israel's major early role in the war made it pretty clear that this was a joint Israeli American adventure in which the Trumpites had been heavily influenced by Israel.  That's adding to an anti Israeli sentiment that's been building in the US for several years and you'll even now hear, in response to the suggestion that it's all worth it to keep Iran from getting a bomb, that maybe we don't really care if Iran has a bomb.

We didn't care enough about North Korea having one in order for the US to attack it, and Trump loves the communist leader of North Korea.

So that excuse isn't working either.

So time to distract.

The government just announced that children under 16 years of age are being automatically enrolled in "Trump" savings accounts. The Government, which has no money whatsoever as it's borrowing piles, will place $1,000 of the money it doesn't have into such accounts, but parents need to claim it.

Will this achieve something?

Well, it might, or might now.  Truth be known with inflation being what it is, $1,000 that can't be touched until a person is 18 years old isn't going to seem like that big of a deal right now  But it might turn out to be.

Trump also promised people $5,000 if the GOP retains both houses of Congress, but then that would require Congress to do it, and Trump earlier promised everyone a $2,000 tariff dividend.  The government handing out cash it doesn't have isn't a good idea and frankly I thought it was a horrible idea when President Biden started handing out cash during COVID.  I've heard the Trump proposal compared to that, and that was a bad idea.

The Administration also just sent out $500.00 checks as supposed refunds for Obamacare overcharges.  They seem rather strategically placed, however.  

Anyhow, stayed tuned for coming attractions. The trade war with Canada is just starting, the war is no where near over, and prices are really set to climb.  Trump has less than thirty days to address all of this, or even some of it, which won't be easy at all.  Voters who are inclined to vote their pocketbooks are likely pretty much set in their opinions by now.

October 6, 2026

Casper's Grant Street Grocery closed.

Grant Street Grocery, Casper Wyoming


Grant Street Grocery in Casper Wyoming is the only surviving small neighborhood grocery store in the town and even advertises the same.

Opened in 1921, the store was converted into a specialty grocery store and deli some years ago, and features meats and cheeses, as well as many other items, that are unlikely to appear on the counters of regular grocery stores.  It's featured here for its simple sign, as well as being a remnant of something that was once very common, a neighborhood store.

President Trump signed an order allowing for the temporary sale of red diesel, which you tend to only find easily in farm country, for regular diesels.  Effectively its a sort of kind of temporary suspension of the Federal tax on diesel.

I'd quite frankly question the Presidents ability to legally do this, but if I see red diesel for sale, I'm buying it.  

I probably won't find it for sale.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 10, The Autarky Edition.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 8. Donald Trump, China's (and Russia's) greatest ally edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom

Matthew, Chapter 24.

Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice.

Dietrich Bonhoeffer

July 26, 2026

China v. Taiwan

The Houthis hit oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia yesterday.

News reports hold that the administration has put on hold an escalation of the war due to a shortage of air defense munitions.  Savvy analysts, including yours truly, have been warning about that occurring for months, and not it's here.

So, in keeping with that, a prediction.

This is also likely a moment that Putin and Xi have been waiting for as well.  Our weapons stockpile has been built up over years, and now we've wasted it on a war fought for Israel and Trump's vanity.  Both Putin and Xi know that the next President, assuming at Trump 2028 coup to be unsuccessful, and assuming that we don't have another President before 2028, is much less likely to be a complete patsy and geopolitical dimwit.  

For Russia, that means Russia needs to fight on in hopes it can win before the next administration comes on.  For Xi, that means the time to invade Taiwan is. . . now.

July 29, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

The U.S. Senate advanced Russian energy sanctions legislation Tuesday as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Capitol. The vote was seen as a tribute to the bill’s author, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the day of his funeral, which was widely attended by politicos. 

Trump fell asleep during it as J. D. Vance seemed oblivious to the dozing octogenarian and Bessent looked nervous about it, but then he always looks nervous.

July 31, 2026

Israeli Hamas War

The Bored of Peas has supposedly worked out a peace plan in Gaza.  Sober analysts a 4th Grade level have severe doubts about it.

August 1, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Now Trump is backtracking and saying the US won't license Patriot missile production to Ukraine.

August 2, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has run out of ballistic missile interceptors.  This comes at the same time that the US supply is seriously depleted due to Donald Trump's illegal moronic war against Iran.

King Donny should free up what remains of the US supply and give them to Ukraine, and start emergency production for the US.  As for Iran, we can solve that problem simply by pulling out.  Better yet, pulling out, putting every senior commander who agreed to fight in a clearly illegal war on trial, and impeaching Donald Trump.

Crisis in Ceuta

Not a war but requiring Spanish military deployment, a mass flood of immigrants crashed into the Spanish North African city of Ceuta.

About 50,000 North African immigrants stormed the city, leading to dramatic news footage and MAGA "see, it could happen here" claims.  Missed in the story is that 48,000 of them returned to Morocco within 48 hours.

A bigger question may be why Spain retains a city that you would figure should be part of Morocco, but it does.

Italy defensively suspended the EU's border-free Schengen arrangements with Spain.

August 10, 2026

Israel v. Hamas.

Israel had rejected the "Board of Peace" peace plan, refusing to enter into a peace deal with Hamas until it is definitely disarmed.

Another blow to King Donny.

August 17, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Both sides exchanged heavy missile and drone attacks yesterday.  A NATO jet on patrol shot down a drone that had strayed into Romania.  

August 18, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Robert Shaheiev, 49, formerly of the Ukrainian Navy who defected to Russia early in the war died in an explosion in Sevastopol.

Whether he was targeted or not, Ukrainian operatives have proven effective at hunting down figures in the Russian military that they find particularly responsible for various matters.  Shaheiev defected with a submarine.

Korean War

Donald Trump has signaled that the US is going to scale back it's participation in joint exercises with the South Korean Army.

What's going on here is terribly unclear.  The US has maintained troops in the ROK since the 1945 and the threat of North Korean invasion is very real.  

I should note that this isn't entirely unprecedented.  Jimmy Carter actually campaigned on the idea in 1976 and tried to implement a phased withdrawal, which was abandoned over conservative and military objections.  Since the 1980s, military support of South Korea has been very strong.

Trumps move comes at a time when the US is losing an illegal war with Iran and is having to pull naval assets out of the Pacific.  It also comes at a point at which the longtime Red Chinese goal of forcibly reunited Taiwan with the mainland is at its highest point. Combined with that, Trump's administration is packed with National Conservatives who have a sort of Neo Nineteenth Century view of where the U.S.'s foreign policy should be focused.

Given that, Trump's decision could be the result of his listening to National Conservatives, or it could be because or logistical situation is much worse than admitted.

It could also be because South Korea refused to participate in the illegal war, like every other nation on earth did.  Trump has not taken that well.  Nobody seems to be pointing out that South Korea did participate in the Vietnam War, which Trump did not.  Trump himself, at any rate, referenced South Korea's lack of willingness to get into the losing war with Iran.

Because of Trump's other actions, however, there's widespread commentary about whether Trump is a Russian asset and this is influencing him on the world stage.  As radical as that sounds, there are reason to raise this question.  Certainly no other President has hurt US interest, and just the US in general, more than Trump, and he's a fanboy of Putin.

We've noted it elsewhere, but we've been worried about a Chinese strike on Taiwan in the near future.  The combination of the failed Iran War and Trump's other actions make that inevitable . The question is whether that will come this Fall, or next Spring.

September 4, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

In an attack Ukraine is an intentional Russian signal to the United States, Russia hit a Coca Cola plant in a drone strike.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has killed a House vote on Lindsey Graham’s Russia sanctions bill which passed the Senate in July, stating “We have to build consensus around that final product".

Oh, um, . . . not hat doesn't look a little weird. . . .  and doesn't raise any questions, um, like  Дональд Трамп — агент России?

What is it with this administration and Russia?  Why is Дональд Трамп a Russian asset?  Just stupidity and a like for flashy gold things?

September 20, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine launched a massive drone raid on targets in the Moscow region.

September 22, 2026

Pakistan v. Afghanistan

Pakistan conducted air raids into Afghanistan yesterday.

October 1, 2026

US in Iraq

The U.S. is now completely out of Iraq.

October 4, 2026

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia hit Ukrainian bridges over the past few days.  This appears to be an economic targeting.

Russia also indicated it would resort to the use of nuclear weapons to defend Kaliningrad if it needed to, which it would never need to, as nobody is threatening the Baltic city formerly known as Königsberg.

October 5, 2026

Russia

Darya Shipilova, patient 0 in what hopefully is contained quickly.  May the perpetual light shine upon her.

Darya Shipilova, a 28-year-old researcher at an anti-plague lab died following suspected exposure to a “particularly dangerous infection.” which people believe is likely pneumonic plague.  Some 200 people are under observation for exposure to the highly infectious disease which might have killed the young woman due to a lab accident.

Some fairly knowledgeable people assert that there's reason to believe that this may be a weaponized variant of the disease, which the Soviets were working on prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Adam Kinzinger is urging all flights out of Russia to be halted.

God grant that this be contained, whatever it is.  

We would note that no country has reacted by banning flights so far.  We might also note that with Trump in office the US is extraordinarily impaired in reacting to a threat like this.  MAGA still continues to believe that COVID 19 was no sort of a threat and it's unlikely that Donald is going to react until it really turns out to be a weaponized virus that starts killing a lot of people.

October 6, 2026

Yemeni Civil War

Yemeni government forces retook the Bab el-Mandeb Strait up to the city of Mocha

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2026 Elections In Other Countries.

April 13, 2026


Trump's endorsement again turned out to be a predicator that the endorsed candidate would go down in well deserved flames as Péter Magyar defeated the illiberal democrat darling of the far right Viktor Orbán.

Also a figure of the Hungarian right, and in fact once an Orbán protege, he is a sign that even in a country that's be converted into the model of an illiberal democracy and hence adored by the Heritage Foundation set, a corrupt autocrat can come down.  He's also a sign that support by Trump means nothing in much of the world, and is becoming meaningless in the United States.

Orbán, who is not insane as Trump is much of the time, does deserve credit for conceding defeat.

April 14, 2026

Canadian liberals gained a majority in the Canadian parliament through by elections yesterday.

While less clear, the Donald Trump Effect, i.e., repulsion over his vile politics, is moving everything to the left that's associated with him.

June 22, 2026


Colombian Trump backed right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's presidential election, apparently.

August 31, 2026


Icelandic voters rejected a proposal to negotiate with the EU for admittance.

September 7, 2026


I frankly don't grasp how German elections work, but  Alternative für Deutschland, (AfD) won state elections in Saxony-Anhalt but fell short of a majority.  The party is a far right German party and about as close to the Nazi Party as a German political party legally can be.

It's rise can be seen as part of a rise of the far right throughout the Western world, although the first two countries with far right parity's who gained control of their governments, Hungary and Poland, have subsequently seen those party's fall out of power after governing for some time.  Presently, the only other European country to be governed by a far right party is Italy, which is presently governed by Fratelli d'Italia, which has its roots in the Fascist Party.

Fratelli d'Italia is interesting here as well, as while even its symbol shows it rising out of Fascism, it's very much moderated itself since achieving power, converting itself from a populist far right party into more of a right wing party.  Time will tell if the AfD is able to do that, although it already criticizes Trump, the head of a proto fascist party himself, on some things.

October 6, 2026


Quebec separatist Parti Québécois won the Quebec provincial election but fell short of obtaining a majority.  I guess it's proof you can't keep a bad idea down.

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Monday, October 5, 2026

Wars and Rumors of War, 2026. Part 8. Donald Trump, China's (and Russia's) greatest ally edition, additional labels.

 


2028 Election, Part I. The Preview of Coming Attractions Editions.


December 19, 2025

 And the 2028 Presidential Season has begun.  Erika Kirk of Turning Point USA has endorsed J. D. Vance.

And yes, it's way, way, early.

But perhaps its not surprising.  Trump's mentally departing the stage and chance are good that he'll be out of office in the next few months, Vance is probably looking towards his future right now.  His best chances for that position, of course, would be if Trump is escorted out of the building babbling about being the greatest and sent to a gilded retirement home.

But if that doesn't occur, the knives will be coming out before 2028.  Marco Rubio will not have sat through four years of soul corrupting dementia not to take a run at the White House.  No doubt others are in the wings.

One who may be in the wings, if I'm wrong on his being too demented to carry on in any fashion, is Donald Trump. Everyone keeps noting that he's constitutionally barred but he has no regard for the law in the first place and his threads to run need to be taken seriously.

On Vance, he's a true NatCon, although a recent convert to the philosophy, and his being backed by Turning Point means something, assuming that Turning Point doesn't fly apart or become highly diminished (which I think it will).  It's hard to know exactly what's going on, but it might be suspected that it's probable that Kirk's coming out now has the backing of other significant NatCon figures, who know that they need to put their man in power now (Trump really isn't their man, but their tool).  A figure like Rubio would turn the clock back.

And so the race is on.

December 22, 2025

It wasn't until listening to the weekend shows that I learned that Marco Rubio has endorsed Vance as well.

That's really interesting, and frankly surprising.

Cont:

And now the rumors are circulating, probably correctly, that Ted Cruz will be running.

Moreover. . . .

The NatCon nerve center and author of Project 2025 starts to come unglued as the Trump Administration does:

The conservative movement continues to splinter about how to deal with its most controversial voices

I've always thought Roberts' organization would maneuver to put Vance in power in 2026 and shove aside the Pine Tree flag folks, who don't have the intellectual capacity to run a government.  The risk has always been that they'd hold the hand they were dealt too long.

They may have.

And Pence, who didn't look like a good candidate before, is starting to with some folks.

September 23, 2026

Christie with President Zelensky

Chris Christie has made what is effectively an announcement that he's running for the Presidency in 2028.

Christie is a solid and real conservative and is not only seeking to obtain the Oval Office, but to stage a counter insurgency against the populist MAGAs.  This is a good time to do so, as the MAGA's are abandoning ship pretty rapidly as the bloom is off the Trump Stenchweed for everyone except the most diehard loyalist, many of whom are in the ignorant category.  The MAGA's are floundering around like fish in the deck with the two presumed 2028 candidates for the Trump thrown, Marco Rubio and J. D. Vance having real trouble dealing with a legacy they both want to take and to avoid.

Christie was a Trump supporter after his first run for office in 2016 and was part of the Trump transition team.  He got COVID 19 at a White House event, which shows how late he remained on Trump's team, sort of. It would seem that his loyalty was always somewhat cynical, as he never played that much of a role and his views don't dovetail with Trump's. Christie definitively broke with Trump on election night 2020 when he adamantly maintained that the election was not stolen and he's pulled away from him ever since.  He's a frequent guest on the This Week panel where he's been a very vocal opponent of Trump's, while still being a conservative.

Christie's announcement brought out tons of criticism, some of it from people like me who have always opposed Trump.  I understand that, but I feel it's unwarranted as Christie never compromised his own views and stood for them when the time came.  His support for Trump was likely self serving, as is J. D. Vance's and Marco Rubio's.  He's a real Republican, a real conservative, and in my view is a very good candidate.  It's early, of course, but in this environment, positioning himself early, before the November 2026 election, would appear to be a good strategy. 

I will note that the immediate opposition to Christie in some quarters is interesting.  As noted, I get those who are disgruntled as he supported Trump in the first administration.  But a lot of people just keep saying "he's fat". 

Yeah, he is. So was Taft. So was Cleveland.  So is Trump.

It's weird to think being fat would be a reason not to vote for a person, while being a serial polygamist isn't.

We should mention the Democrats as well.

No Democrat has announced or even gone as far as Christie with an announcement of intent to announce.  That's likely a wise strategy as announcing in advance of the November election will give absolutely desperate Republicans something to focus on.  An interesting development has happened, however, in that Gavin Newsom has been clearly testing the waters but came out saying he would not run if Kamala Harris does.  Presenting a united front against the GOP is a good strategy, to be sure, but in 2028 the Democrats will not face Trump and the need to be united early may not really be there.  Moreover, Harris is a terrible candidate.  Harris would fit the mold, however, of Democrats re-running failed candidates.

September 25, 2026

Prior Pritzker logo.

JB Pritzker, who Trump likes to insult for being fat, even though Trump is fat, has effectively thrown his hat in the ring as well as of yesterday.

Pritzker is 80 lbs lighter than he was this time last  year.  

An interesting thing here is that we now have two ex Governor's from east of the Mississippi and north of the Mason Dixon line running for the GOP ticket.  It's over two years until the 2028 election, but it's still noteworthy as this could very much reflect a shift in the GOP.  Donald Trump is a New Yorker, of course, but he's basically from the State of Television.  The last Republican President who was a true East Coaster was George H. W. Bush of Maine.

September 29, 2028

Robert Reich reports that Rahm Emanuel is thinking of running on the Democratic ticket.

The Rahm Bomb

And Reich is worried.

He should be. 

I don't know that much about Emanuel, but I do know that the Democratic Party can blaze a way to defeat like no other.  Given a chance to simply walk into the White House, and right now it's looking like they have one, they'll mess it up by picking a candidate that's unelectable.

Let's be perfectly frank about 2024.  Donald Trump won in no small part as the Democrats picked two completely lousy candidates.

Joe Biden was obviously suffering from mental decline and allowed to run until it simply couldn't be ignored.  Then they went to the next worse option, Harris.

I warned at the time that Harris was a bad choice, at which time I urged that they pick Tammy Duckworth.

Why can't Democrats get a clue? 

Why isn't anyone suggesting that Tammy Duckworth replace Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket?

Nope, Kamala Harris with her high pitched whiny voice and completely unworkable personality.  

Uff.

There's plenty of rumors afoot that Harris is going to run again, which his repeating the mistake the Democrats made with Hillary Clinton.  People didn't like Clinton, at all.  The Democrats kept acting like her failures weren't her failures.

There's a serious risk that the Democrats do that again, and figure, sure she lost to Joe Biden in the primary, and sure she lost to a demented septuagenarian in the Presidential election, but, by golly, that means nothing.

Which of course has nothing to do with Emanuel. . . or maybe it does.

Emanuel is from the Clinton and Biden administrations.  It's really clear that a lot of people are really trying to put distance between the past and the present and are disgusted with politicians in general who symbolize the past.  About the only Democrat of old who could win now would be Barack Obama, and he can't run (although if the GOP finds some illegal way to run Trump. . . ).  The Democrats need to move forward.

They also need to ditch the Baby Boomers like the stenchy worn out gym shorts they've become.  There ought to be an age limit on anyone running in 2028.  I'd put the cap at being born in 1965, which is the upper year for Generation Jones.  If the Boomers haven't gotten things right by now, they're not going to.

On this, the Democrats also need to get Bernie Sanders to shut up.  Nothing says Gerontocracy like having a million year old man running around as the voice of "progressivism"  

Duckworth, fwiw, would be a good candidate.  Amy Klobuchar would as well.

Basically, if you were born before 1965, or had a position in a prior administration, stay out.

Pritzker, I'd note, makes that cutoff.

So does Republican Chris Christie.

October 5, 2026

Rahm Emmanuel was on Meet the Press this weekend. He's clearly running, and frankly he sounded perfectly reasonable.  I was impressed.

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