You heard it here first.
Except this is worse than I feared.
Trump Rages as Leaks Reveal How Aides Soothe Him with Midterm Hopium
As readers here know, I had long felt that Trump would get an 18 month run and then be deposed via the 25th Amendment, placing J.D. Vance at the helm and positioning him for a Presidential run in 2028. My prediction proved to be wrong, although I still feel it likely that the 25th will be applied post election at some point.
What I didn't take into account was the complete dependency of some in the cabinet on Trump, such as the NatCons and Evangelical Right, and the dog like loyalty that some of his inner circle have. Loyalty which is beyond normal loyalty, and in which in some cases crosses over into weird.
And hence we get, as this article, quoting from the New York Times, relates:
Numerous administration insiders confide that he’s raging at naysayers and negative press. They’re also leaking that he’s “increasingly cloistered with a small group of acolytes” like Natalie Harp, as the Times puts it. The result:
As the elections approach, Mr. Trump is feasting on a media diet of fawning press coverage, disparaging clips about his perceived enemies, and helpings of flattering photos and “A.I. slop,” as one official put it.
Just as his supporters, with the cooperation of his enemies, caused, or allowed for, Portuguese dictator António de Oliveira Salazar to be fed encouraging news about how well everything was going, after he had in fact been deposed, Trump's narrow circle is doing the same. The Salazar Effect is in full force.1 . This explains how he cites the stupidest material as fact. That's what his acolytes are telling him. He really believes the polls are good, and that everyone loves him. The big difference is that Salazar had already been deposed.2.
Trump remains in power.
And hence this is incredibly dangerous. Salazar for all of his many failings, did love Portugal and he was a man of actual faith. Trump appears to only love Trump and is and was a dedicated sexual libertine. Salazar, who was not a populist, did have an actual political philosophy. Trump doesn't.
Which takes us to Joseph and Magda Goebbels.
Herr and Frau Goebbels famously went to death in the bunker with Adolf Hitler, and in the same way, suicide. Worse yet, they murdered all of their children who were in the bunker with them. The Goebbels adults couldn't imagine a Germany without Adolf Hitler and stayed with him in the end, taking the same trip out of life that he did3
Trump appears to not only be subject to the Salazar Effect, but the Goebbels effect as well. That is, his loyal circle is willing to go down in the bunker with him, fighting to the point of hopelessness, and believing that some miracle will deliver them from their fate.
In May 1945, of course, two major elements of the Red Army were contesting to be the ones to put an end to Hitler, and in the west German armies were racing to surrender to the British, Canadians and Americans (less so to the French, whom they rightly feared would be less forgiving). There was no saving the Third Reich and lots of Germans were mostly interested in saving themselves. Even in the east, where the Wehrmacht still fought hard up until the last few days, that was mostly to attempt to allow people to get out of the way of the Red Army. We're seeing that now with some Republicans, who are distancing themselves from Trump.5 Even Chuck Gray wants to talk about the economy, which the Republicans ruined, rather than how he was endorsed by Der Fibber. J.D. Vance has been sent afield on a comedy tour, but seems to have little enthusiasm, or talent, for it.6 Rubio, for his part, seems to be trying to go into hiding.
And so we are now in a really dangerous phase. The best evidence is that Trump is raging at events, just as Hitler did. He's collapsing into his safe secure bunker. At recent campaign events he hasn't been that welcome. The crowds are small, and they've started to heckle him. Some candidates don't want him showing up at all. He cancelled events this week, most likely as he couldn't endure it anymore. In the bunker his aids tell him what he wants to hear.
On November 3 he won't be hearing what he wants to hear.
How will he react then?7
Footnotes:
1. We've used the term before, but we have not defined it. The Salazar Effect is the telling to a demented person lies about how well things are going, in order to keep that person calm and satiated.
2. The Trump's have a family history of this. This is exactly what was done with Fred Trump when he became demented with Alzheimer's.
3. While its almost impolitic to note it, at least in West Germany most Germans adapted to life without the Nazis very quickly, and had even started to prior to the German surrender. Only about 10% of the German population actually became Nazi Party members and the most the Nazis ever secured in a national election was 38% of the vote. The great mass crime of the Germans, therefore, was in putting up with and accommodating themselves to the Nazis even when the horrors of Nazi rule were evident and even as it lead Germany into destruction.
It's interesting to note in context that about 30% of the American population registers as Republican. Trump secured about 49% of the popular vote in 2024. Support for Trump is at a record low. The great mass crime of the Republicans, anyhow, is quite similar to that of the Germans in Nazi Germany. However, that also suggest that they'll get over Donald Trump very quickly.
5. In keeping with the theme, we'll start calling this the Speer Effect, after Albert Speer. We're going to start seeing GOP Republicans who claimed they were never with Trump all along. This also brings up the Michael Jackson Effect. As soon as its safe to do so, we're going to see a lot of MAGA's whip around on the other MAGAs.
6. One thing I didn't account for in my 18 month prediction is that one of the cabinet members, Marco Rubio, would have no interest at all in seeing Vance become President. The only reason that Rubio is in the cabinet at all is that he thought that would propel him to the White House in 2028. He doesn't want Vance, probably, to be running for reelection in 2028 and he sure doesn't want his political career to end as being Vance's Vice President.
7. I've used the analogy of the Battle of Berlin here a lot. To carry through with that, however, November 3 is just the equivalent of the Red Army reaching the suburbs of Berlin. It's not winning the whole battle, but it makes it obvious who will win. The problem is whether or not rational heads will prevail at that point and Donald Trump either ushered out or fully put in his room with his jammies on and the tele turned to News Max, or whether his inner circle tries to defend to the last man and use ever means possible to steal the election.
I'm guessing it'll be the latter.
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