Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 5. Oh oh, it didn't work. Now What? The Pearl Harbor Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

What do we mean by the defeat of the enemy?  Simply the destruction of his forces, whether by death, injury, or any other means—either completely  or enough to make him stop fighting. . . .  The complete or partial destruction of the enemy must be regarded as the sole object of all engagements. . . .  Direct annihilation of the enemy's forces must always be the dominant consideration.

Carl von Clausewitz.

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

Isoroku Yamamoto.

It didn't work.

The United States did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, it merely set it back several months.

That was, quite frankly, a pretty predictable outcome.  Indeed, I predicted it.

The question is, now what?

Iran has learned that its security is, in fact, in building a nuclear weapon.  It's going to do it.

The only way to stop that would be a ground invasion of Iran, which we don't have the stomach to do, and which Israel can't do.

Israel gambled that they could take control of the air, and that this was the time to do it. That set up the scene for the US to come in with the GBU-57A/B MOP, which they gambled we would.  

We committed them.

It failed.

Military gambles are always judged in hindsight.  Japan didn't take out the U.S. Navy on December 7, 1941, as the carriers weren't at Pearl Harbor.  If they had been, the story would be different.  The Germans didn't defeat the Soviets in Operation Barbarossa, but they came close.  If it had worked, it would be regarded as one of the greatest military feats of all time, rather than a disastrous miscalculation.

We'll see what happens here, but my guess is that by this time next year, Iran has the bomb.

June 26, 2025

United States and Israel v. Iran

The Trump administration is getting increasingly spastic over the developing facts that Operation Midnight Hammer didn't really work, or rather than it achieved minor success but failed to achieve its objective.

As per usual, the administration simply accuses everyone who disagrees with them of lying or insulting servicemen.  That's complete and utter nonsense. The objective was a tough one and the odds were against it.

Hegseth held a press conference today that was essentially a rant due to these questions being brought up.  It was pathetic.

The big difference here, as compared to other Trump counterfactuals, is that the Trump smokescreen will evaporate with a mushroom cloud.

The question is how soon.

cont:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  declared victory in the recent war and discounted the damage caused by American airstrikes.  His tone was absolutely defiant.

June 27, 2025

United States and Israel v. Iran

After criticizing ‘warmonger’ Liz Cheney, Hageman backs U.S. intervention in Iran

I"m quite certain that Donald Trump could declare war on the entire world and Wyoming's delegation would support it.

June 29, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

As its seemingly now become too routine to take notice of, we will note that the fighting is still going on in Gaza.   The humanitarian crisis carries on, and Israeli strikes this week killed 72 people.

June 30, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The war in Ukraine, the one that Trump promised to end upon being nominated but then later stated that was "hard", is heating up.

Looks like Trump was full of crap about his magical negotiation powers.  Where's that "art" of the deal?

Anyhow, Russia launched its biggest aerial of the war so far, firiging a total of 537 aerial weapons at including 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles. 249 were shot down and 226 were lost.

The Russians have amassed 50,000 troops near Sumy.

Israel v. Hamas

Israel has ordered evacuations from norther Gaza.

United States and Israel v. Iran

An interesting post:

The inmates are running the asylum! That is what it looks like to me. Their entire administration is not based on anything that resembles sanity. 

And on the same topic:

 Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinge· 12h

So what seems clear from the intel, is that we probably should have reloaded the B2s, and gone for a second round.  Instead the impulsive toddler was desperate to have a strong ending to the movie and declare a cease fire.

This is a show to him, entertainment, and he’s the “star”

July 8, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Roman Starovoyt, age 53, who had been fired as Russian transportation minister just hours prior, was found dead from a gunshot wound in his car.  Russian authorities stated suicide might be a possibility.

He's also been the governor of Kursk relatively recently.

July 9, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did not inform the White House before he authorized a pause on weapons shipments to Ukraine last week. Currently it seems Trump will resume them.

Trump reports he's upset with Putin, probably for busting the bubble that Trump has any persuasion over him.  Trump's efforts at bringing about peace have failed.\

July 14, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears that the US will be increasing military aid to Ukraine, funneling the new arms through other NATO countries.

Trump has indicated that if Russia doesn't end the war in 50 days he will impose 100% secondary tariffs.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 4. The GBU-57A/B MOP Edition.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, 2025 Israel v. Iran War, Cynthia Lummis, Donald Trump, Harriet Hageman, Iran, Israel, John Barrasso, Predictions, Russo Ukrainian War, United States, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Weapons, You heard it here first

Can we stop pretending that ‘election integrity’ was ever a real problem?

Can we stop pretending that ‘election integrity’ was ever a real problem?: Wyoming doesn’t need more voter registration laws just because the secretary of state claims our system is in need of a fix, columnist Kerry Drake opines.

Common assumptions that may make an a**. . . well you get it. Economics.

As the Big Ugly is debated in Congress, I keep hearing a set of assumptions thrown around as if they're truths.

In each case, there's no reason to believe that they are.

The first one is that "the government is too big"?  Oh? What's the right size government.

Republicans like to claim that the best government is the one that governs the least, but they've never put that into practice. They aren't right now.  If you have masked Geheime Staatspolizei running around, you are definitely trying to govern.

They'd reply, as Mike Lee did the other day, that they're against faceless bureaucrats who are responsive to elected officials, which is pretty rich for a guy acting like he's the Senator from Deseret rather than Utah.

Anyhow, for a country of 300,000,000 what is the right size government?

Nobody seems to have an answer.

It's likely one, fwiw, that not only has more immigration officers, but more social security employees, and more IRS employees.  The military, which nobody is proposing to shrink, probably doesn't need to be anywhere near its current size.

Speaking of the IRS, we also hear that "Americans are overtaxed". This is actually complete crap.

The big problem in the US economy today is that Americans are grossly undertaxed but still want a government that would have to be funded by a lot more taxes.  Still, Americans believe they're heavily taxed.

I once had a die hard GOP Trumpee tell me that Americans paid the highest income tax rate in the world.  When I challenged him on it, he looked it up right then on his computer and was stunned.

Frankly, the wealthy should pay a lot more taxes than they do.

An outright myth is the trickle down economic theory that Republicans have revived.  Tax breaks for the wealthy don't trickle down.  It's well demonstrated.

Another one is that you can grow your way out of a budget deficit. We know that you can't. And yet I heard Mike Johnson claim that we surely would do just that if the Big Ugly was passed.

Johnson is a smart man.  He knows better, which either shows that he's sipping Sazerac with his coffee, willfully deluding himself, or flat out lying.  

A secretly held one that causes people like Grover Norquist to wake up in the middle of the night cackling is that you can starve the government into being smaller.  Newt Gingrich believed that.  It just doesn't happen. 

The rude truth of the matter is that the deficit has been too high for many years, but it really started ballooning during  Trump I.  Yes, it ballooned further during Biden's presidency.  The Trumpites plan to balloon it to the point that will cause a fiscal crisis, there's no doubt about it.

The Republicans voting for the Big Ugly know this. They'll either be dead before it matters, or are just hoping somebody else will come around and fix the budget after they've killed the government back to 1914 levels.  Why?

Well, um. . .the government is too big. . . and taxes are too high. . . and 1914 was a perfect year. . . 

Killing people through lies and disinformation

Lex Anteinternet: Killing people through omission.:   

‘A lot of Americans are going to die’ courtesy of RFK Jr.

Killing people through omission.

 

The Trump Administration is well on its way towards being one of the most lethal in modern American history through the spread of lies and medical disinformation, and the withholding of funds for aid where it can be effective.

At some future point in history, historians are going to look at this era as one in which rational thinking simply broke down into mass delusion.

Governor Gordon has enough of Chuck Gray.

The rise of Californian Chuck Gray in Wyoming's politics has really been remarkable.  Filling the seat of a popular Casper legislator he failed to unseat in a primary, after that individual died, he became a firebrand populist funded with family money.  His bid for earlier larger offices failed until he latched on to the Secretary of State's office in a campaign which was frankly nasty in town, something that was common to him, and which hasn't stopped.  He has his sights on higher office now, with reliable rumors claiming that he's going to run for Congress and that Congressman Hageman will run for the Governor's office, which she's done before unsuccessfully.

Gray still surfaces in the media, rising up from what is otherwise a very mundane clerical position, to claim this or that.  He did so the other day in a public meeting regarding wind farms, and that apparently caused Gordon to react.

Governor of Wyoming sent this bulletin at 05/23/2025 01:57 PM MDT

Abraham Lincoln said, “Honesty is the best policy.” He believed that when people are given the truth, they make the best decisions.  Although our forefathers had their differences, they did not have to contend with the hit-and-run tactics some politicos and malcontents resort to using on social media. Social media platforms can be useful ways to connect with friends and loved ones and share useful information. However, when they are used deceptively by self-seeking individuals as a means of causing discord and dissension for personal gain, they are not. Spreading gossip through deceptive posts takes its toll — not only on the individuals being defamed, but on our communities as well. Social Media Lies Cause Unnecessary and Harmful Community Strife I am not going to respond to far-flung rumors or half-truths that political opportunists hurl my way. Typically, I have paid little attention to the insults our Secretary of State spews because they are bogus. But after Mr. Gray’s most recent social media lie suggesting my vision for Wyoming energy only includes wind power, the record needs to be set straight. Assuredly, this week Mr. Gray chose to take a shot at me, but next week he will take aim at someone else  — a county clerk, a property owner, or member of your family— really anyone who disagrees with him or he feels by slandering he can raise his stature. It is sad. Chuck Gray: Only Member of the State Land Board to Vote Against Individual Property Rights and Wyoming Schools The five statewide elected officials, as members of the State Board of Land Commissioners (SBLC), took a sworn oath to honor our Constitutional and fiduciary responsibility to earn the best return for the state and our schools. Notably, Mr. Gray is often the sole member of the SBLC to ignore this obligation. When he cast his vote against the Pronghorn and Sidewinder state leases, his vote was not only an attempt to suppress the private property rights of adjacent land owners, it also sought to deny revenues for Wyoming schools and overlooked potential financial benefits for Niobrara County. That is his prerogative to be sure, but it demonstrates his disregard for the duties of his office and a determination to impose his personal preferences on others, no matter the cost. My vote, along with the other three commissioners’ votes, recognizes the economic benefits to Wyoming and Niobrara county and the rights of participating landowners without prejudicing the outcome of the development. Already, these projects have been through a four-year process and still require additional levels of review with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality’s Industrial Siting Division, the state engineer, and local regulators, among others, before it can proceed. These are not insignificant hurdles. The Truth The Pronghorn and Sidewinder projects include both private and state lands; importantly, the state lease was granted after those lessees, many who voluntarily opted into the project, signed consent forms regarding their state leases.   Notably, the SBLC approval was only for the wind farm lease on state lands with cooperating lessees. The Board of Land Commissioners cannot permit the part of the project that lies on adjacent private lands, which makes up about 70% of the total Pronghorn project and 80% of the total Sidewinder project.  The state land board did not authorize any portion of the prospective hydrogen project, nor could it approve water appropriations contemplated for the project. Water and private property rights are sacred in Wyoming. In addition, current state leaseholders (those holding grazing leases) signed a consent form to allow the turbines to be built on the leased land.  Top Priority: Protecting Wyoming to the Core To be clear, my vision for Wyoming is exemplified by a track record of visiting communities to listen, and understand each community’s unique perspective on what needs fixing and what folks hope to be able to do on their own. I also visited Niobrara County last week and spent time with residents there. As I have stated since first being elected, I am eager to give local communities the tools they need to prosper and the opportunity for our citizens to create their futures and thrive. We do that in Wyoming by respecting private property rights, water law, and individual initiative. Defenders of the Truth: How You Can Help If you are interested in learning more about my vision for Wyoming (straight from the horse’s mouth), I invite you to: Sign up to receive regular e-mail updates from my office. Attend public meetings and town halls. Reach out if what you read seems “off” so that my office can clarify my position. Refuse to spread dishonest, inflammatory social media posts. Consider the source of information. : e.g. What is Mr. Gray seeking with his latest lie/s? Another political office? Does he not recognize individual property rights? I invite every Wyoming citizen, especially Mr. Gray, to consider the consequences of deceiving people and instead seek ways to strengthen and unite Wyoming, not divide us. Thanks for reading. Ride for the Brand.  - Mark Gordon

The Governor's statement appears to have caught Gray a bit flat footed.  Gray's made a career out of spouting lies packed with invective but having somebody call him out publicly, and from a higher office, is something he isn't used to and obviously wasn't expecting.

This isn't the only area this past week where the two have locked horns.  Gray earlier this year accused Weston County Clerk Becky Hadlock of misconduct in the last election and asked for the Governor to remove her, a truly extraordinary move for the Governor to take.  The investigation was completed, and Gordon issued a letter stating:

While the review revealed there were multiple mistakes committed by Clerk Hadlock and her staff, no information or evidence was provided that supported any malicious intent on the part of Clerk Hadlock, or that she was trying to manipulate the results of the election.

“[O]ne of the key elements to determining malfeasance is motive or willfulness, but in this incidence there is no indication that she did so with any intent to change or nullify the results of the votes of the people of Weston County,” the Governor wrote. In essence, the process worked, with any irregularities identified and corrected during a review by the canvassing board.

“It is clear that Clerk Hadlock made many mistakes and exhibited a high degree of unprofessional and perhaps slipshod management of the election,” the Governor wrote. “Still, the system set up to discover, correct, and properly count votes worked here.”

He went on to note that he didn't feel it appropriate to override the choice of the electorate and would leave Handlock's future up to the voters, something that 100% echoes what Republicans said about efforts to remove Donald Trump in his first term.

A current feature of Republican politics is to completely ignore precedent where it doesn't serve what amounts to a sort of NatCon view and Gray has practically based his career on election lies, claiming that there are all sorts of irregularities.  Not too surprisingly he came right out with his own statement.

CHEYENNE, WY – In response to Governor Mark Gordon’s May 23rd decision not to initiate removal proceedings for Weston County Clerk Becky Hadlock, Secretary of State Chuck Gray issued the following statement:

“I am deeply troubled by Governor Gordon’s letter and for refusing to conduct a rigorous analysis of the facts of this case. I am particularly troubled by the Governor’s lies by omission in completely ignoring our finding that Clerk Hadlock submitted a false post-election audit report with our office, which we discussed multiple times as the most serious finding in our investigation released in March. The Weston County Clerk’s submittal of a false post-election audit report on November 6, 2024 does appear to be a willful violation of the code, as revealed by the Weston County Canvassing Board meeting on November 8, 2024, as well as the subsequent, properly-performed audit, which confirmed that there were 21 of 75 ballots with a discrepancy, in direct contravention to the initial post-election audit results submitted to our office. This false post-election audit occurred after we had expressed concerns about the anomalies. Our investigation came to the conclusion there are only two reasonable explanations for the false submission of this audit, absent another explanation provided by the Weston County Clerk, the Governor, or any relevant actors, which was not even discussed. Our investigation found that one possibility is that Clerk Hadlock conducted her audit, finding errors in the election and then choosing to falsely assert that no errors had been found. The investigation found that the second reasonable possibility is that no audit was conducted at all. Either one of those possibilities would suggest that she attempted to hide the problems with the conduct of the 2024 General Election. That is why we made the recommendation that we did, and the Governor’s omission of discussing the false post-election audit in his decision is inherently problematic. Gordon has gotten used to the media refusing to cover these lies of omission and this is another example of those lies of omission. I’m deeply troubled that Governor Gordon refused to even acknowledge key parts of the case.”

Gray has his supporters in the populist mass that's running the GOP and influencing Wyoming's politics, with those same people really disliking Gordon. Gordon has a lot of more quiet supporters.  There's a lot of speculation on whether Gordon will run for a third term, which he's theoretically barred from doing but which the Wyoming S.Ct would clearly say he could do, and he'd have a good chance of winning, certainly against Gray.  Hageman seems to be wildly popular with the GOP base right now, so it'd be unclear how that would go.  I suspect that Gray would fail in a race for Congress.

At some point there's going to be a reckoning for the flood of lies the populist base of the GOP has been fed by its leadership.  Trump's horrific funding bill may be the beginning of it.  Wyoming is going to pay in spades for the results of what it's been supporting, with the first wave of that already hitting.  By November of next year a lot of chickens may have come home to roost and will have died in their coups.  Whether a political change starts to occur in 2026 or 2028 isn't clear, but it's going to.  I don't expect Gray to survive it.  Most of the better known Wyoming politicians will, as they'll modify their positions to the time, although those who came up during this period will have  hard time doing so.

Anyhow, more than one person is cheering Gordon on.  No doubt more than one is cheering Gray too, having bought off on what he's told them, facts aside.

Occupational Identity and authenticity, a rambling thread.

Occupational identity refers to the conscious awareness of oneself as a worker. The process of occupational identity formation in modern societies can be difficult and stressful. However, establishing a strong, self-chosen, positive, and flexible occupational identity appears to be an important contributor to occupational success, social adaptation, and psychological well-being. Whereas previous research has demonstrated that the strength and clarity of occupational identity are major determinants of career decision-making and psychosocial adjustment, more attention needs to be paid to its structure and contents. We describe the structure of occupational identity using an extended identity status model, which includes the traditional constructs of moratorium and foreclosure, but also differentiates between identity diffusion and identity confusion as well as between static and dynamic identity achievement. Dynamic identity achievement appears to be the most adaptive occupational identity status, whereas confusion may be particularly problematic. We represent the contents of occupational identity via a theoretical taxonomy of general orientations toward work (Job, Social Ladder, Calling, and Career) determined by the prevailing work motivation (extrinsic vs. intrinsic) and preferred career dynamics (stability vs. growth). There is evidence that perception of work as a calling is associated with positive mental health, whereas perception of work as a career can be highly beneficial in terms of occupational success and satisfaction. We conclude that further research is needed on the structure and contents of occupational identity and we note that there is also an urgent need to address the issues of cross-cultural differences and intervention that have not received sufficient attention in previous research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)

Skorikov, V. B., & Vondracek, F. W. (2011). Occupational identity. In S. J. Schwartz, K. Luyckx, & V. L. Vignoles (Eds.), Handbook of identity theory and research.

How some lawyers apparently want the public to imagine them.

A number of relatively recent experiences has lead me to post this thread.

Posted around town are some billboards by a lawyer who is apparently specializing in plaintiffs' cases and criminal defense.  I don't know him well, but I do know  him.

When I first met him, he came across, quite frankly, as a metrosexual.  I was quite surprised later on when I learned that he'd grown up on a ranch, and that he had a brother who now ran it.  Now, however, he appears on billboards with a huge mustache in Western attire and saddle and portrays himself as a cowboy.

And I guess, by cowboy, I mean both real cowboys and the movie image of a cowboy.

Cowboys, and that is of course a real occupation, have been a popular cultural image since the late 19th Century.  It's really interesting to me, as somebody who is a stockman and who has, accordingly, done a fair amount of cowboying, how cowboys continue to have a sort of wild image that they acquired in that time period.  I love working stock, but most of it isn't anything like what movies portray.  Maybe none of is, which is why  the popular Yellowstone television show tends to anger me.

Of course, being a lawyer isn't anything like portrayed on television either.

Anyhow, I never tell people that "I'm a cowboy", but I find that I"m referred to that way, in the working sense of the word, from time to time.  Or, people will refer to me as a rancher the same way from time to time.  I'm always a bit flattered when they do, as if I'd had my ruthers in the world, which I haven't, that's what I would have done full time.  I can't say its my occupational identity, however, as I'm well aware that I don't do it full time.

Affecting the image, however, miffs me.  It's fake.  If you simply come across that way, as you are naturally that way, that's one thing.  Using it to promote your legal career, however, is bullshit.

Indeed, on real cowboys, not all of which are men, today:

Come As You Are

I guess this gets back in a way to this thread:

A Nation of Slobs. But then. . .

If you are going to be a lawyer, look like one, it's what you actually are.

And, by the way, there's at least one politician in the state that does the same thing, and I'd have the same criticism about.  He's not a lawyer, but a commercial landlord.  

Anyhow, it also gets to the weird association that the law picked up at some point with cowboys around here.  I don't know when this occurred, but it might have been about the time that Gerry Spence's book Gunning for Justice came out.  Spence didn't try to portray himself as a cowboy, but he did take on a Western influenced style, wearing a fringed jacket and a cowboy hat as a matter of course.  Spence being sui generis has been able to consistently pull that off whereas those copying him tend to look absurd.

Anyhow, "Gunning for Justice" is actually a phrase that's been around for awhile and he didn't introduce it, as t his movie poster from 1948 demonstrates:

Spence's use of it, however, seem to have pushed into another sort of use, at least locally.

On this, it's interesting that the cowboy image can be coopted this way, whereas other "manly" professions genuinely cannot.  Fighters (boxers) have been a little bit, and I suppose that was an obviously one, but nobody, for example, talks about "whaling for justice".

Anyhow, dressing up like a cowboy for affect if you are not punching makes you a Rexall Ranger, not a cowboy.

While I'm at it, a Wyoming lawyer has affected the cowboy appearance for her columns on one of the local electronic journals.  In this case, she's gone for the a way too big hat big pushed way up on the forehead so you can see the face look, which to a working stockman looks absolutely absurd.  The same journal actually as a working rancher who wears his hat correctly as a columnist, and up until recently had another who did the same.

As a total side, if you notice in old cowboy portraits they often have their hats pushed to the back of their head, something moderns have wondered about, and for which they've even assumed that must be how they wore them.

No, the cameras were bad.

Isom Dart at Brown’s Hole Wyoming.

If they hadn't pushed them up some, their faces would have been in shadow

On identifies, I had a couple of odd encounters recently, one of which involves mental decline, and the other which involves gender attraction.

I'll start with the latter one first.  There's an older profession that I don't know well, but who've I've been familiar with for a very long time.  Somebody much more familiar with him than me dropped that he's a homosexual.  I was shocked.  Not because homosexuality in general shocks me, but because it was very well closeted for decades.  Indeed, he's married with children.

I suppose that might be the rule for people north of 70, the closteting, that is.

In retrospect, it pretty quickly made sense for some reason.  It just explained some personality quirks that I'd long noticed.  The point of posting it here, however, is that if it's true, he's lived a lifetime with sort of an interesting strained identity.

He's not the only one I know of who is alleged to be in this category.  Frankly a fairly well known person in the region is claimed by some insiders to fit this as well.  In that case, it's more notable for his public opinions on things, which would be generally contrary to this inclination, assuming its true.

Now, I'll note that I have the typically misunderstood Catholic views on homosexuality.  I'll also note that one of these individuals is a co-religious, and the other was.  My only real point in noting all of this is to note that it must be a strain to live an entire life with a sort of false identity, assuming that its true in either case, which I can't really say for sure.

I'll also note that homosexuals of that vintage who did not present themselves as "gay", which is different, may have had a better understanding of marriage than many.  Catholic Answers Hugh Barbour defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman to produce children for the worship of God, which while it may be more than that, that captures a lot of it.  People like to say that before Obergefell homosexuals couldn't marry, but that's simply false, if we consider that marriage is a unique institution between two people capable of reproducing and bound to care for those they create.

Going on to occupations, I've also run across recently a situation in which I've been dealing with somebody whom, once again, I don't know that well but who is still working fulltime and whose clearly suffering from some compression loss in the psychological cylinders.  I'm not their pal or anything but it's sad to watch.  It's also sad to watch, however, somebody whose psychological identify is so closely identified with the practice of law, they can't leave it.

I've known more than one lawyer who practiced into advanced old age with no mental detriment.  But it's also the case quite frankly that a person's physical clockworks, and often their mental ones, start to slip a bit after the hands hit 60 or so.  I'm frankly not convinced at all that allowing people to practice a profession after some point in their 60s is a good thing, and I don't think people should carry on into their 70s.  For one thing, it's just sad.  Surely there was something else that interested them once.

Back to occupational identities.

One of the really minor features of this blog is the M65 Field Jackets in the wild. page.  Minor.

I like M65 field jackets.  When I was in the Guard I had at least six of them due to having bought two and having been issued four more.  The reason I was issued four is that at Ft. Sill the switch from OG-107 to BDU was going on and we were issued OD field jackets. As soon as I got back, we were issued BDU field jackets, and told to keep the old ones.

I gave one of the OD ones to a girlfriend who had need of a jacket while I was in university, and then eventually I just got to big, i.e,. gained weight, or filled out, whatever, and couldn't wear the size I'd been issued.  But I still had the next larger size, Large Regular.

Well, time, etc.

A surplus store here had a whole bunch of uniform items here before they went out of business and I bought several BDU ones.  I just really like them.  I picked up a OD one for my son, as they're a nice coat, but naively didn't for myself.  The OD ones you can wear for daily wear really.

Well, here recently I found a Greek Lizard pattern one for sale and I bought it for hunting.  Which meant that I had three woodland pattern ones, one desert pattern one (a gift of an old soldier) and a Lizard pattern one.  Then I saw the current multicam pattern one for sale on Ebay, which I ordered.  Finally, I decided I needed an OD one and bought one of those off of ebay.

Some of these have the US Army tape on them.  One, the multicam one, came with paratrooper wings from the former and his name tape.  I took the name tape off and the paratrooper wings.  I'm not a paratrooper.  The OD one came with a name tape, the U.S. Army tape, and two unit patches.  I took everything off but the US Army tape.

For reasons that are silly, and I can't explain, I ended up ordering name tapes.  I can now sew those on.

Why?  I'm not sure.  I don't need name tapes on old uniform items for any rational reason.  Rather, I was required to do it back in the day, and I still feel like am now.  Indeed, it would make a lot more sense to take the US Army patch off the OD one so I can use it for its intended purpose of regular daily wear.

Odd

Well, I found a M1943 replica on sale and ordered it.  It won't have any patches.

I need to stop buying them.

As a further aside, a Carhartt coat is much warmer.  My old one is pretty much blown out now.  It was a gift from my wife and I've been resisting getting a new one, even though I need to.  Guess I'm hoping for another one as a gift so that I don't have to buy it.

Back to occupational identities for a moment.  It occured to me how, when I was young, men had much less of one. They genuinely seemed more well rounded than men do today

People always like to claim things were different, if not outright perfect, when they were young.  But it does seem to me that genuinely men were quite family oriented. That meant that their professions and occupations were focused on providing for their families, but it also meant that their professions tended not to be all that they were, including to themselves.  I can vaguely recall some men who were very career oriented being criticized for it.

Every man that I knew when I was young tended to almost be identified by a collection of interests.  Medical professionals were often hunters and fishermen.  Indeed, I don't know one who wasn't.  Some were dramatically so.  Men who had come into professions from farms and ranches tended to still be identified with their origin and retain some contacts with that life.  I knew a fireman who was a pretty good amature geologist, another who was a car restorer, and another who was the first long distance runner I ever knew.  More recently professionals, or at least lawyers, have almost become cartoons of themselves in some instances, only engaging in the law or perhaps one activity that's sort of socially approved for lawyers.

It isn't good.

Last Sunday I ran this item:

Pack Animals - the 🇩🇪 German Mountain Infantry Brigade

I knew that the Bundesheer has a mountain infantry brigade.

I've sometimes thought that if I had been born in Germany, which I'm very much glad I was not, I'd have opted for a career with this unit.  Outdoors. . . animals, etc.  By the same token, if I had been born French, there's the Chasseurs Alpins.

Hmmm. . . 

Well, I didn't opt for a career with the Wyoming Game & Fish, so I'm probably just fooling myself.

Have a nice day at work.  

Mehr Mensch sein,

A note. "To be honest with you".

Pre statement declarations of honesty are only made by people who 1) aren't about to say something honest, or 2) are very unsure of what they're saying.

Trump says "to be honest with you" all the time, as an example.  People are entitled to believe that a person they're listening to is speaking honestly.  A person who repeatedly starts his comments with "to be honest with you" has a different world view.  It implied the speaker normally lies, and is probably lying right now.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

And so we're on to a new year.

Armenian woman kneeling beside her dead child in Syria during the Battle of Aleppo.

Heading into 2025, the big news remains the Russo Ukrainian War.  Other wars are going on, of course, including the Middle Eastern War, as we have termed it here, in which the United States is an occasional belligerent.

As the world is just a few days away from the inauguration of Donald Trump as president, there's good reason to be concerned about the impact this will have on various conflicts, the Russo Ukrainian War in particular.  Trump has long been a Putin fan boy for reasons which remain very difficult to discern.  Over the past three years Russia has proven that it is, at best, a weak regional power.  Putin is bankrupting his country and his armed forces have been reduced to such a level that he's imported North Korean forces to aid his, with North Korean being a Stalinist Clown College.

Ukraine has managed to hold on against its much larger neighbor in no small part due to largescale Western support.  Europe has actually, at this point, contributed more to Ukraine than the US has.  US leadership and support has been critical, but its often missed that the US has used the war to clear out obsolescent stocks of arms and, in fact, could do much more of this if it wished to, and should.  Trump, however, has been generally hostile to Ukraine and lovey dovey to Putin.  His relationship to the Russian head of state is so peculiar that it has long raised questions about what's behind it.

Trump, of course, who didn't serve in his nation's war when he was of military age, claims to abhor war and he may in fact have that view.  He generally doesn't like military men that much, and he's sufficiently wealth and self centered that he frankly might just not grasp that there are people who are willing to fight and die for their country.  Be that as it may, however, like many of the populist camp, quite a few of whom are strongly influenced by a certain strain of Evangelical Protestantism, he has an "Israel can do no wrong" view.  There is no reason to believe, therefore, that the incoming administration won't essentially give Israel a free hand in whatever it wants to do in the ongoing struggle in the Middle East.

The US, it might be noted, retains a small number of forces in Iraq and Syria.  Trump made sounds about pulling US forces out of Syria when he was first elected, but he didn't.  He's made some statements about the US having no role in Syria now, but the US forces in Syria aren't sufficient to impact the outcome of the war there, and are there only to address ISIL in the region.  There is, therefore, no real way to know how the change in administrations will impact that.

In terms of prognostications, its notable that Russia's 2024 effort in Ukraine have produced no real results.  That Putin isn't trying to commit larger forces to the region and is instead allowing his forces to be bled is telling.  He probably can't do more.  Ukraine, however, remains unable to push Russia out. The situation therefore depends nearly entirely on what the US and Western Europe does.

The commitment of North Korean troops was always boing to be a failure and will be.  North Korea is much more of a paper tiger than many suppose.  Mostly, a lot of North Koreans will get killed. Those who return to North Korea will have been exposed to a partially westernized Russia. Stalinist have always feared that as it means there's now a population that knows things could be much better somewhere else.  Moreover, those returning will be elite troops.  They'll be much like French Algerian troops who returned home to Algeria after fighting in Indochina, and that won't be good for the Communist Hermit Kingdom.

Right now, in regard to Syria, there's really no real reason to hope that the country breaks into a western democracy.  At least some period of internecine strife appears likely, absent a massive intervention by Turkey, which we really do not want.

January 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

In a sort of odd even in the ongoing war, a deal between Ukraine and Russia which allowed for the transport of natural gas across Ukraine into Europe, in spite of the war, expired this past week and, as a result, Ukraine shut the pipelines down, which makes perfect sense.

This creates, for the most part a less dire situation than a person might suppose.  Europe receives 5% of its natural gas from Russia.  Another pipeline that does not go through Ukraine does exist.

Unless you are in Moldova.

This is the only way the breakaway Transnistria region gets gas, and the impact there has been immediate.

January 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

Last edition:

In this instance, of course, the last edition was, from last year.

January 8, 2025

United States v. Panama

United States v. Denmark

Today's headline in the Tribune:

TRUMP TALKS USING MILITARY IN TAKEOVER

Trump appears to be demented, and the US acting illegally in a war against Panama and NATO Ally Denmark should be taken seriously.

January 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Donald Trump's special envoy for the Russo Ukrainian War, who of course right now is simply a private citizen and may always be, has declared that Trump will end the war within 100 days of taking office.

Originally it was within 24 hours of taking office.

After that, it was within 24 hours of being elected.

Of course, a person would have had to have drank the KoolAide to believe either of the first two, and not to heavily doubt the third.

A really interesting look at North Korean troops in the war:

Troops Captured by Ukraine Provide Rare Glimpse Into North Korea’s Military

January 15, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

Hamas and Israel appear to have agreed to a complicated cease fire.

January 20, 2025

Middle Eastern War/Hamas Israeli War

The first prisoners and hostages were released yesterday.

No more wars?

That was the promise of the Trump campaign, along with the price of groceries going down (they won't) and the war in Ukraine ending within 24 hours after his nomination to the GOP ticket (that didn't happen).

No more wars isn't shaping up to be true either.  

Two huge stories broke yesterday on Face the Nation, but with all going on, they aren't getting that much attention.

They are, in the style of this thread:

Israel v. Iran?

Lindsey Graham was on Face the Nation yesterday begging for Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites.  He will be "engaging" Trump on this topic.

United States v. Mexican Cartels?

Incoming National Security Advisor strongly hinted that the US will be listing two Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and implied that the US will be intervening in Mexico to take them on.

I'm frankly amazed this isn't a banner headline.  

If this goes in the direction that it seems to be, one of the purposes of having Graham and Waltz on the day before the inauguration on the best of the three weekend news shows is to get the information out, in a sort of early and curve ball fashion, that we're headed into to major military actions.  We apparently are going to urge the Netanyahu administration to basically finish the Iranian regime off, or at least decapitate its nuclear potential, and we're going into Mexico with special forces and aircraft, the way we've fought in Syrian and Iraq over the past two decades, but in a much more substantial fashion.

Whatever a person thinks of these proposals, Iran is not going to go gently into the night, although you could argue, as some have, that its down on its knees and needs to be wiped out.  

Mexico, no matter what the incoming Trump administration might think, does not want troops on its soil again for the third time.  It would likely fight back against an intervention, just like it did in 1916, even when the intervention is against an internal enemy, just like it was in 1916.

At any rate, at least right now, it would appear that the incoming administration isn't really against wars.  It's just in favor of different, and bigger, wars.

January 24, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War.

North Korea is sending more cannon fodder to the war.

This won't serve to turn the tide in favor of Russia, and if it continues, it will destroy the core of the North Korean army and leave an embittered veterans class.  The real threat to Ukraine now is Donald Trump.  So far Trump seems to have assumed that his pal Putin would simply end the war because Donald was elected, or perhaps due to something in the relationship between them (Trump is undeniably a Russian asset, the question is what kind of Russian asset he is, bought and paid for or by personal inclination).  Trump's present plans in regard to his first broken campaign promise is to cause the Saudi's to lower the price of oil as that will make Russia's too expensive to buy, apparently.

January 26, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump Interregnum is resuming shipments of 2,000 lbs bombs to Israel on the basis that "they bought and paid for them", reflecting his sad view of the world.

Whether a person supports Israel or not, already leopards are eating the faces of left wing pro Palestinian voters and Arab American voters in the US who didn't support Harris.  Trump will make Biden look like a peace protester as far as Israel is concerned, and the far right is packed with the element that feels Israel can do no wrong.

Trump also is proposing to Jordan and Egypt that they take in the Gazans so that Gaza can be "cleaned out".  While there is in fact some merit to the Gazans being relocated (we suggested this earlier), both countries have rejected the idea completely and Trump's phone call diplomacy is working no more successfully here than it did with his call to Denmark's leader about his bizarre demand for Greenland.

January 28, 2025

Congo

The Congo River Alliance, backed by Rwanda, entered the country and took a major city this week.  Made up of 17 parties, the principal member is the U.S. and UN sanctioned March 23 Movement.  I have no idea what they are seeking.

January 31, 2025

Congo

M23 rebels seized control of Goma and are advancing toward the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. 

February 1, 2025

US v. ISIL

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Statement on U.S. Africa Command Strikes in Somalia Feb. 1, 2025 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth statement on U.S. Africa Command strikes in Somalia At President Trump's direction and in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, I authorized U.S. Africa Command to conduct coordinated airstrikes today targeting ISIS-Somalia operatives in the Golis mountains. Our initial assessment is that multiple operatives were killed in the airstrikes and no civilians were harmed. This action further degrades ISIS's ability to plot and conduct terrorist attacks threatening U.S. citizens, our partners, and innocent civilians and sends a clear signal that the United States always stands ready to find and eliminate terrorists who threaten the United States and our allies, even as we conduct robust border-protection and many other operations under President Trump's leadership.

February 6, 2025

Arab Americans For Trump has changed its name to Arab Americans for Peace following Trump's proposal to remove the Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into an American territory.

Basically, they realized they'd been dumbasses, which was plenty obvious to start with.

Israel has of course leaped right on this lunatic suggestion and instructed its military to be prepared to allow Palestinians to leave, although freedom to leave a region is generally regarded as a human right.

It should be worth noting right now that a US presence of this type guarantees death will come to Americans involved in it, and we will now be a direct combatant in a nearly 80 year old guerilla war in the region.

I'd also note that a lot of far right evangelicals have a very peculiar view of Israel, and we now have a Secretary of Defense who is all tatted up with appropriated Crusader symbols, although a Crusader coming back form the dead would regard him as a heretic.

Oh well, what could go wrong?  Leopards won't eat our faces.

February 17, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War, Taiwan and World War III.

Donald Trump, who promised to end the Russo Ukrainian War upon being nominated for the Republican ticket, and also within 24 hours of being elected, is belatedly trying to make good upon his promise. . . but on what terms.

This past week the United States has basically told its European allies that its abandoning Europe and at the same time is starting unilateral talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia?

Hmm. . . . 

The Saudi's likely regard Trump as an epic clown, and have no real interest in the war ending, so who knows what's up with that.

Anyhow there are widespread fears, and legitimate ones, that Trump is just out to betray Ukraine Chamberlin style.  Trump's life reduces simply to money for Trump, and he's a man with no real values, so he likely genuinely can't grasp what the war is about.  At the same time he's trying to extract an economic deal from Ukraine, as that's all he really understands.  

Not very well grasped in this is that the US is rocketing towards a world war, with Trump being too dense to grasp it.  We've been harrassing Taiwan in recent weeks while we also removed a statement from our embassy website that we don't support its independence from China. Now, we apparently don't object to that.  I'm fine with that, but what Trump doesn't grasp is the following:

We'll be in a type of world war.

Chinese poster from 1971. The Chinese have long memories.  Americans have the memories of gnats.

And I don't mean figuratively, I mean actually.

Somewhere around here is a post that predicted, at the time it was posted, that we would be at war with China within, I thought, about five years.  We aren't at that mark yet. 

China wants Taiwan and have been openly planning to invade it for years.  The Biden Administration was fairly openly planning on the defense of Taiwan.  Japan and the Philippines expect it to occur as well.

Trump is now punishing Taiwan economically, and China is going to move to get it.  The Chinese are not dumb, and my guess is that they don't figure that Trump will be around long either.  

North Korean Army poster.  North Korea is desperate, and it undoubtedly regards Trump as a complete doofus.

Trump's a demented doofus who is destroying the American government.  This would be the ideal time for China to act.  And if they do, and I think they will, North Korea will attack South Korea shortly thereafter.  Whatever has gone on or is occuring in Eastern Europe, Russia will launch a massive fully mobilized campaign against Ukraine, and maybe the Balkans and Poland.  You can easily see a scenario where China attacks Taiwan and North Korea attacks South Korea later that same week, and Russia has a major offensive occuring within a month.

Russian poster equating the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the Soviet victory in World War Two.

Indeed, if I led China, and the morals of the Chinese leadership, I'd do it. The balance of risks is on their sides, and will even be more on their sides after Elon Musk takes the meat cleaver to the military.

What will Trump do?  Probably babble and vacillate.  He'll yap for about a week on the basis that world leaders listen to him.  After a week, the situation will be grave for Taiwan and we'll be in an all out war in South Korea.  We'll act then, but we'll have lost a week which means when we do, we're going to take a naval pounding.

Trump, it might be noted, didn't answer his country's call when it came in Vietnam.  Musk managed not to be conscripted into the South African Army by migrating to Canada.

I think our chances of winning such a war are very slim.

A war like that isn't avoidable and we'll get in it.  Probably with Vance as head of state as Trump's escorted out the door babbling.

The reason Trump can't grasp this that Trump can't grasp that not everything is for sale.  Indeed, most things aren't for sale, and in much of the world very little is for sale.  For China, bypassing taking Taiwan does not have a dollar value. For Taiwan, reuniting with China doesn't have a dollar value.

We're headed towards World War Three.

February 20, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

There were sharp words between President Zilensky and Donald Trump yesterday in which Zilensky said the quite part out loud saying the would be was "living in a disinformation space".  Trump ironically hit back by calling Zalinsky a "dictator", a real irony for a person illegitimately gathering autocratic authority to himself.

Trump's efforts to end the Russo Ukrainian War might actually have begun to sew the seeds of his irrelevancy.  Europe is united against Trump and Russia, as Trump tries to revive an late 19th Century view of foreign policy. And Trump's legendary negotiating skills, which are really fairly thuggish, don't appear to be working outside of the world of real estate, with Trump's worldview so limited that he can't really grasp that most people don't dream of being Florida golf course owners.  The question in increasingly becoming to what extent will his interregnum damage the United States internally and globally before an actual President returns to office.

March 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Yesterday made it clear that Donald Trump is really a spoiled, and not very smart, child.

Raised with a sliver spoon up his ass, and a bully by heart, with a career of well funded bulliness, he's come to believe he's a genius, as have his largely ignorant supporters, the latter of whom are seemingly unaware that a person born into Trump's wealth could have the IQ of a houseplant and still make money.

Trump, busy trying to make a deal to extort Ukraine's mineral wealth in exchange for . . . well it's not clear, found that leaders of country's don't respect spoiled children.  This lead to a short of shouting match between Trump and President Zelenskiy in the White House.

In the past month Europe as a whole has moved away from the United States, as has Canada, and are well on their way to forming a new second power block as the United States fades into being a regional petulant power.  Tariffs next week will finish it.  Ukraine will likely turn to Europe, and the US, lead by a spoiled not very smart brat, will turn into an economically hobbled regional bully in which somewhat over half the population dislikes to outright detests its leadership

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.

Labels: Donald Trump, Lebanon, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Putin, Russo Ukrainian War, Syrian Civil War, Trailing Posts, Trailing thread, War, Wars and rumors of wars