April 10, 2025
On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.
This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.
Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.
Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.
This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.
And so here we are.
Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism. The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends. The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.
Highly relevant to Wyoming:
Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.
OilPrice.com
Cont:
Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed. Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.
Cont:
After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.
Cont:
The Dow closed 1,000 points down.
Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.
The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.
April 11, 2025
China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.
April 13, 2025
The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.
April 14, 2025
The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.
Regarding the weekend shows:
A Disturbing Trifecta
On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:
GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS SEAFOOD INDUSTRY
Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value
April 17, 2025
Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.
It’s Not Known If The 6-10 UW Students Who Had Visas Revoked Are Still On Campus
April 19, 2025
Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.
President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.
April 22, 2025
Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.
By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.
Few think administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain
Stocks End Sharply Lower. The Dow Is on Pace for Worst April Since 1932.
The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.
Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.
cont:
Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration. It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.
cont:
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.
The result would be stagflation.
April 23, 2025
After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.
Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.
Classic Trump cycle. Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.
April 24, 2025
Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part. He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.
Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.
Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.
April 29, 2025
Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.
D'uh.
Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.
Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular. It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.
April 30, 2025
Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.
UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.
The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.
May 1, 2025
Here's the current price of oil:
WTI Crude 56.88
Brent Crude 59.75
This is way below the Wyoming price marketability figure. If this holds, this will result in the crash of Wyoming oil.
Trump's economic propogandists keep pointing to the price of oil going down, which it has been, as proof of his tariffs working. They are working to depress the price of oil, but because the price of oil is an economic indicator. When it goes down, it means there's an anticipated or actual low demand, usually. Production gluts are also a cause, but that's not the cause here.
Prices went down on everything, I"d note, during the Great Depression, once it was really rolling.
This is bad news, for Wyoming in particular.
DOGE cuts to AmeriCorps ‘a devastating blow to the state of Wyoming’: “What I struggle with most is that this is somehow an act of efficiency,” one stakeholder told WyoFile, adding that $40 is returned for every federal dollar invested in service in Wyoming.
In the 100 Day Cabinet meeting in which Trump's loyal retainers heaped praise upon him, the Dear Leader noted sacrifice in that maybe children this Christmas shall get only two dolls, instead of 30.
Let them eat cake.
May 3, 2025
There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago and we traded it. We want a prosperous world but eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that I would call quite unstable, I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say ‘hahaha we won,” and other countries are envious.
Warren Buffet today.
May 5, 2025
And now we're going to hit foreign movies with a 100% tariff, apparently.
May 6, 2025
Governor sees ‘opportunity’ for Wyoming in Trump tariff war. Economist sees ‘disaster.’: State's trona and soda ash industry is particularly vulnerable to losing global buyers, while Gordon sees potential bright spots for mineral commodities, as well as new manufacturing.
May 7, 2025
If the large increase in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slow down in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.
Jerome Powell.
May 8, 2025
The US and the UK have apparently reached a trade deal, although the details are murky.
May 12, 2025
The US and China have agreed to cut tariffs for 90 days.
This is causing a stock market rally, but the roller coaster nature of this is once again notable.
John Barrasso was on Meet The Press yesterday and cited gas prices as evidence of Trump's economic wisdom, when in fact its ironically the opposite.
May 13, 2025
A 90 day pause in the trade war with China was agreed upon with each side dropping their tariffs by 115%.
The price of oil climbed to $62.48/bbl.
The order associated with this:
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, I hereby determine and order:
Section 1. Background. In Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025 (Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits), I declared a national emergency arising from conditions reflected in large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, and imposed additional ad valorem duties that I deemed necessary and appropriate to deal with that unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security and economy of the United States. Section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257 provided that “[s]hould any trading partner retaliate against the United States in response to this action through import duties on U.S. exports or other measures, I may further modify the [Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States] to increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action.”
In Executive Order 14259 of April 8, 2025 (Amendment to Reciprocal Tariffs and Updated Duties as Applied to Low-Value Imports From the People’s Republic of China), and Executive Order 14266 of April 9, 2025 (Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates To Reflect Trading Partner Retaliation and Alignment), pursuant to section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257, I ordered modifications of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) to raise the applicablead valorem duty rate for imports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) established in Executive Order 14257, in recognition of the fact that the State Council Tariff Commission of the PRC announced that it would retaliate against the United States in response to Executive Order 14257 and Executive Order 14259.
Section 4(c) of Executive Order 14257 provided that, “[s]hould any trading partner take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security matters, I may further modify the HTSUS to decrease or limit in scope the duties imposed under this order.” Since I signed Executive Order 14266, the United States has entered into discussions with the PRC to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns. Conducting these discussions is a significant step by the PRC toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters.
Pursuant to section 4(c) of Executive Order 14257, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to address the national emergency declared in that order by modifying the HTSUS to suspend for a period of 90 days application of the additional ad valorem duties imposed on the PRC listed in Annex I to Executive Order 14257, as amended by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, and clarified in the Presidential Memorandum of April 11, 2025 (Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, as Amended), and to instead impose on articles of the PRC an additional ad valorem rate of duty as set forth herein, pursuant to the terms of, and except as otherwise provided in, Executive Order 14257, as modified by this order.
Sec. 2. Suspension of Country-Specific Ad Valorem Rate of Duty. Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025, all articles imported into the customs territory of the United States from the PRC, including Hong Kong and Macau, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 10 percent subject to all applicable exceptions set forth in Executive Order 14257 and the Presidential Memorandum of April 11, 2025. This ad valorem rate of duty of 10 percent reflects (i) the modification of the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of China (including articles of Hong Kong and Macau) set forth in Executive Order 14257, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, and the retention of the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said order; and (ii) the removal of the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266.
Sec. 3. Tariff Modifications. In recognition of the intentions of the PRC to facilitate addressing the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14257, the HTSUS shall be modified as follows:
Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025:
(a) heading 9903.01.25 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting the article description and by inserting “Articles the product of any country, except for products described in headings 9903.01.26–9903.01.33, and except as provided for in heading 9903.01.34, as provided for in subdivision (v) of U.S. note 2 to this subchapter . . . . . . ” in lieu thereof;
(b) heading 9903.01.63 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “125%” each place that it appears and by inserting “34%” in lieu thereof;
(c) subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “125%”, and by inserting “34%” in lieu thereof; and
(d) heading 9903.01.63 and subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS are hereby suspended for a period of 90 days beginning at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025.
Sec. 4. De Minimis Tariff Decrease. To ensure that the reduction in duties pursuant to section 2 of this order is made fully effective and the purpose of Executive Order 14257, as amended, is not undermined, I also deem it necessary and appropriate to:
(a) decrease the ad valorem rate of duty set forth in section 2(c)(i) of Executive Order 14256 of April 2, 2025 (Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports), as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, from 120 percent to 54 percent;
(b) retain in effect the per postal item containing goods duty of 100 dollars in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, that has been in effect since 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, unless and until otherwise modified by a subsequent executive action, notwithstanding the increase contemplated effective June 1, 2025, pursuant to Executive Order 14256, as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266; and
(c) modify the HTSUS, effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025, as follows:
(i) subdivision (w) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “120 percent”, and by inserting “54 percent” in lieu thereof; and
(ii) subdivision (w) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025. For merchandise entered for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, the applicable specific duty rate is $200 per postal item containing such goods.”
Sec. 5. Implementation. The Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the United States Trade Representative, as applicable, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing, and the Chair of the United States International Trade Commission, are directed to take all necessary actions to implement and effectuate this order, consistent with applicable law, including through temporary suspension or amendment of regulations or notices in the Federal Register and adopting rules and regulations, and are authorized to take such actions, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA, as may be necessary to implement this order. Each executive department and agency shall take all appropriate measures within its authority to implement this order.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
(d) The costs for publication of this order shall be borne by the Department of Commerce.
DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump issued an odd order attempting to address the price of prescription drugs.
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:
Section 1. Purpose. The United States has less than five percent of the world’s population and yet funds around three quarters of global pharmaceutical profits. This egregious imbalance is orchestrated through a purposeful scheme in which drug manufacturers deeply discount their products to access foreign markets, and subsidize that decrease through enormously high prices in the United States.
The United States has for too long turned its back on Americans, who unwittingly sponsor both drug manufacturers and other countries. These entities today rely on price markups on American consumers, generous public subsidies for research and development primarily through the National Institutes of Health, and robust public financing of prescription drug consumption through Federal and State healthcare programs. Drug manufacturers, rather than seeking to equalize evident price discrimination, agree to other countries’ demands for low prices, and simultaneously fight against the ability for public and private payers in the United States to negotiate the best prices for patients. The inflated prices in the United States fuel global innovation while foreign health systems get a free ride.
This abuse of Americans’ generosity, who deserve low-cost pharmaceuticals on the same terms as other developed nations, must end. Americans will no longer be forced to pay almost three times more for the exact same medicines, often made in the exact same factories. As the largest purchaser of pharmaceuticals, Americans should get the best deal.
Sec. 2. Policy. Americans should not be forced to subsidize low-cost prescription drugs and biologics in other developed countries, and face overcharges for the same products in the United States. Americans must therefore have access to the most-favored-nation price for these products.
My Administration will take immediate steps to end global freeloading and, should drug manufacturers fail to offer American consumers the most-favored-nation lowest price, my Administration will take additional aggressive action.
Sec. 3. Addressing Foreign Nations Freeloading on American-Financed Innovation. The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative shall take all necessary and appropriate action to ensure foreign countries are not engaged in any act, policy, or practice that may be unreasonable or discriminatory or that may impair United States national security and that has the effect of forcing American patients to pay for a disproportionate amount of global pharmaceutical research and development, including by suppressing the price of pharmaceutical products below fair market value in foreign countries.
Sec. 4. Enabling Direct-to-Consumer Sales to American Patients at the Most-Favored-Nation Price. To the extent consistent with law, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Secretary) shall facilitate direct-to-consumer purchasing programs for pharmaceutical manufacturers that sell their products to American patients at the most-favored-nation price.
Sec. 5. Establishing Most-Favored-Nation Pricing. (a) Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary shall, in coordination with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, the Administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and other relevant executive department and agency (agency) officials, communicate most-favored-nation price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers to bring prices for American patients in line with comparably developed nations.
(b) If, following the action described in subsection (a) of this section, significant progress towards most-favored-nation pricing for American patients is not delivered, to the extent consistent with law:
(i) the Secretary shall propose a rulemaking plan to impose most-favored-nation pricing;
(ii) the Secretary shall consider certification to the Congress that importation under section 804(j) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FDCA) will pose no additional risk to the public’s health and safety and result in a significant reduction in the cost of prescription drugs to the American consumer; and if the Secretary so certifies, then the Commissioner of Food and Drugs shall take action under section 804(j)(2)(B) of the FDCA to describe circumstances under which waivers will be consistently granted to import prescription drugs on a case-by-case basis from developed nations with low-cost prescription drugs;
(iii) following the report issued under section 13 of Executive Order 14273 of April 15, 2025 (Lowering Drug Prices by Once Again Putting Americans First), the Attorney General and the Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission shall, to the extent consistent with law, undertake enforcement action against any anti-competitive practices identified within such report, including through use of sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act and section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, as appropriate;
(iv) the Secretary of Commerce, and the heads of other relevant agencies as necessary, shall review and consider all necessary action regarding the export of pharmaceutical drugs or precursor material that may be fueling the global price discrimination;
(v) the Commissioner of Food and Drugs shall review and potentially modify or revoke approvals granted for drugs, for those drugs that maybe be unsafe, ineffective, or improperly marketed; and
(vi) the heads of agencies shall take all action available, in coordination with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, to address global freeloading and price discrimination against American patients.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii.) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
(d) The Department of Health and Human Services shall provide funding for publication of this order in the Federal Register.
DONALD J. TRUMP
Related threads:
The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.
Labels: 2020s, 2025, Clothing, Coal, Coffee, Petroleum, Taxes, The Madness of King Donald, The Tariff Recession, Trump Trade WarsLast edition:
