Showing posts with label Wyoming's boom and bust economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wyoming's boom and bust economy. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 8. The imaginary lost world edition (and also something about the color of pots and kettles).


Nostalgia combines regularly with manifest respectability to give credence to old error as opposed to new truth. 

John Kenneth Galbraith.

June 17, 2025.

Headline in the Tribune:

Trump cancels $49M Wyoming coal carbon capture project
And:

New products take backseat amid Trump tariffs
And:
Companies work to overcome staff incivility
President Trump issued an executive order allowing Nippon Steel to purchase U.S. Steel, something that had been held up by President Biden.

Eh?  Isn't this the opposite of economic nationalism as espoused by the far right.

Yes, it is.

Part of the deal gives the U.S. a "Golden Share', which according to Trump funcationary Howard Lutnick, does the following:
This perpetual Golden Share prevents any of the following from occurring without the consent of the President of the United States or his designee:
• Relocate U.S. Steel’s headquarters from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
• Redomicile outside the United States
• Change the name of the company from U.S. Steel
• Reduce, waive, or delay the $14 billion of Near-Term investments into U.S. Steel
• Transfer production or jobs outside the United States
• Close or idle plants before certain timeframes other than normal course temporary idling for safety, upgrades, etc.
• Other protections regarding employee salaries, anti-dumping pricing, raw materials and sourcing outside the U.S., acquisitions, and more.
We'd first not that nothing is "perpetual".

Next, isn't this Socialism?

Sort of, yes.  It's also somewhat reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt's idea, regarded as radical then and now, to give shares to US corporations that grew over a certain size, and regulate them as public utilities.

Any way its looked at, this is a radical position for the Republican Party and the US to take in general.  It's amazing that there hasn't been objections to it, let alone by the GOP which up until Trump didn't approve of economic protectionism or anything that could be suggested to be Socialist.

Indeed, even now, Trumpites like to accuse people of being Socialist.  

Hmmm. . . 

Last edition:


Friday, June 13, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 6. “Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.”

Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2025.

May 14, 2025

Wyoming Delegation Not Supportive Of Trump's Idea Of Tax Hike For The Rich

So Barrasso and Lummis separate from Trump on this?

Neither one of them are actually Trump supporters in terms of their personal beliefs, but have adopted his views for political survival in Wyoming, which is fanatically pro Trump.  Everyone is well aware that the budget is in a crisis stage and at some point soon the US needs to have a balanced budget. That can only be done through raising taxes, and they know it.

Additionally, taxing the wealthy will not hurt the economy, and everyone knows that.  Tax rates for the wealthy were much higher in prior decades with no ill effect on the economy.

A matter of critical interest.

Wyoming Is The Second Most Expensive State For Beer Lovers

And one Wyomingites just won't believe

Reaction To Trump Tariffs Helps Push Wyoming Oil Prices To Four-Year Low

This is an absolute fact, but if you follow the story on Facebook, a lot of Wyomingites just won't believe it. That would mean Trump is hurting the local economy, and they can't accept that. . . at least not yet.

Oil is at $62.02/bbl this morning.

May 15, 2025

Given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins. 

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon.

Oil is at $61.60/bbl.

May 17, 2025

Thanks to Republican mishandling of the economy, specifically increasing debt, Moody's downgraded the economy from Aaa to Aa1.

The GOP can't seem to grasp that you actually have to pay for the government.

New Jersey transit engineers are on strike.

Trump's "Big Beautiful Budget Bill", which would add $4T in debt, failed 16-21 in the House Budget Committee.

The irony is that those voting against it want more spending cuts, but only increased taxes will address this developing crisis.

Let's put this in bold, as people just don't seem to grasp it.

THE UNITED STATES CAN'T "CUT" ITS WAY OUT OF ITS BUDGET CRISIS.  IT MUST RAISE TAXES.

Cont:

It's really time to stop calling Trump a businessman:

He's a real estate developer. Clearly he's otherwise a business illiterate.

May 19, 2025

The Trump deficit expanding budget bill made it out of committee on a 17-16 vote with those who were to vote no, voting present.

This bill will be a disaster for already an already irresponsible Federal government.  Taxes need to be raised on income, particularly upper incomes to make the budget balance and this insanity cease.

May 22, 2025

The House of Representatives passed by a margin of one a funding bill that will swell the deficit disastrously while making cuts in Medicaid and food stamp while adding to border security.  Taxes will be cut, when they should be raised, and will irrationally be eliminated on tips and overtime.

Trump, who speaks oddly at best, has called this his "big beautiful tax bill"

Walmart is cutting 1,500 corporate jobs.

The stock market is crashing because of the bad tax bill. The bond market is flat.

West Texas crude is back down to $60.96.

Cont:

The "tip" exemption appears to be for "cash tips".

FWIW, bar tenders tend to get cash tips, but restaurant workers less and less.  FWIW, cash tips are notoriously underreported anyway, as they're impossible to keep track of.

May 23, 2025

Hageman’s Budget Vote Critical As House Passes One Big Beautiful Act 215-214


The next one is interesting:

Republicans are for state's rights, except when the state exercises the right to do something they don't like.

Likewise, the GOP is for local control, but really isn't.

At Lusk Town Meeting, Locals Say Wind Projects Have Ended Friendships

Developer Of Controversial Casper Gravel Mine Wants To Renew State Leases

Trump:


What does the "thank you for our attention to this matter" intend to do?

May 29, 2025

Federal trade court blocks Trump's emergency tariffs, saying he overstepped authority

That the power wasn't there was obvious.  Now the question is whether the Trump administration will obey the Court.

May 30, 2025

An appeals court is allowing the tariffs to be collected while the matter is on appeal, which is a poor ruling.

June 2, 2025

Well, of course. . . 

R&D job postings down 18% since president took office

From the same article, about the impact on the economy:

A 25% cut ultimately would reduce gross domestic product by an amount similar to the decline seen during the Great Recession, they said.

cont:

“Was it all bullshit?"

Donald Trump, reportedly, about Musk's promise to cut $1B from the government spending.

That anyone could seriously think that $1B could be cut from the discretionary budget demonstrates that the person has no grasp on the Federal budget whatsoever.

June 3, 2025

Elon Musk on the "Big Beautiful Bill".

It is an abomination, but so was the work that Musk was doing:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist 85th Edition. DOGE dipshittery and Clinton efficiency.

June 4, 2025

Oh my.

The CBO predicts Trump's Big Ugly Bill will cut taxes by $3.7T and raise the deficit by $2.4T.

It's pretty obvious what Congress should do.

A lot of House members are suddenly declaring they didn't read the bill.  That's a pretty good sign its in trouble.  Speaker Johnson claims the magic of supply side economics, which hasn't been dragged out since the Reagan years, will make it all okay.

Elon Musk and the Trumpites are now in a full fledged word war with each other.

Trump is threatening to hike steel and aluminum tariffs 50%.

June 5, 2025

The Wind River Job Corps in Riverton, was ordered to "pause" its activities in anticipation of getting the axe from Congress.

cont:

Proctor and Gamble is laying off 7,000 employees.

cont:

June 12, 2025

The conclusion of negotiations with China leaves tariffs on that country at 55%.

June 13, 2025

Trump signed a Congressional resolution counteracting California's prohibition on the sale of petroleum vehicles after 2035.

It appears that a TACO moment is coming up.


The messaging here is really spastic.  Illegal immigrants in cities are violent criminals, unless they work in the hospitality industry, in which case they're good, long time workers, which is also true of farms, even though the DHS has a plan to raid farms with National Guardsmen to remove them.

Eh?

Of course, regarding agriculture, which I'm very familiar with, this is all an unintended consequence of the Bracero Program, which started the process of taking American laborers out of the fields, all of which raises a larger question.  

Will Americans return to the jobs occupied by foreign workers, and what sort of pay will it require, if they will, to cause them to do that?

And with this entry, we close this edition.

End of Part Six.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

Friday, May 16, 2025

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.


April 5, 2025

Petroleum:  $61.78/bbl (Wyoming crude become unecomic at $59.00/bbl).

Coal:  Coal 99.40/ton

Coffee (USd/Lbs) 372.60.

Levis at Penny's:  $55.65.

April 7, 2025

Petroleum:  60.80/bbl.

One of Trump's minions cited this, fwiw, as evidence that inflation isn't kicking in and things are fine.  On the contrary, the price of petroleum is dropping on fears of a recession.  A recession reduces oil consumption.

Indeed, because of the bizarre nature of tariffs, trading prices on some things in general may go down, while the price rises for Americans.

April 8, 2025

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday:

It's about $61/bbl this mooring.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

April 9, 2025

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

April 10, 2025

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

West Texas is $59.16/bbl.

April 11, 2025

U.S. reached a new record-high of $6.23 per dozen. 

Oil is opening at 60.10/bbl.

May 2, 2025

Oil and Natural Gas.

WTI Crude 58.57 -0.67 -1.13%

Brent Crude 61.49 -0.64 -1.03%

Murban Crude 61.41 -0.93 -1.49%

Natural Gas 3.502 +0.023 +0.66%

A note, below $59.00, US crude doesn't move.

The inflation rate right now is 2.39% with the tariffs about to hit.

May 6, 2025

WTI Crude • 58.28 +1.15 +2.01%

Brent Crude •  61.39 +1.16 +1.93%

Murban Crude • 62.20 +2.24 +3.74%

Natural Gas • 3.594 +0.044 +1.24%

Coal:  98.50/ton

Coffee:  388.45

Levis:  $55.65.

May 16, 2025

WTI Crude 61.95 +0.33 +0.54%

Brent Crude 64.88 +0.35 +0.54%

Natural Gas 3.345 -0.017 -0.51%

Coal:  99.00/ton

Coffee (USd/Lbs) 373.79


Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

 


April 10, 2025

On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.

This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.

Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.

Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.

This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.

And so here we are.  

Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism.  The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends.  The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.

Highly relevant to Wyoming:

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

Cont:

Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed.  Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.

Cont:

After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.

Cont:

The Dow closed 1,000 points down.

Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.

The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.

April 11, 2025

China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.

April 13, 2025

The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.

April 14, 2025

The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.

Regarding the weekend shows:

A Disturbing Trifecta

On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:

GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS SEAFOOD INDUSTRY 

Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value

April 17, 2025

Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.

It’s Not Known If The 6-10 UW Students Who Had Visas Revoked Are Still On Campus

April 19, 2025

Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.

President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

April 22, 2025

Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.

By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.

Few think administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain

 

Stocks End Sharply Lower. The Dow Is on Pace for Worst April Since 1932.

The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.

Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.

cont:

Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration.  It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.

cont: 

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.

The result would be stagflation.

April 23, 2025

After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.

Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.

Classic Trump cycle.  Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.

April 24, 2025

Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part.  He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.

Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.

Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.

April 29, 2025

Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.

D'uh.

Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.

Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular.  It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.

April 30, 2025

Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.

UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.

The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.

May 1, 2025

Here's the current price of oil:

WTI Crude 56.88

Brent Crude 59.75

This is way below the Wyoming price marketability figure.  If this holds, this will result in the crash of Wyoming oil.

Trump's economic propogandists keep pointing to the price of oil going down, which it has been, as proof of his tariffs working. They are working to depress the price of oil, but because the price of oil is an economic indicator.  When it goes down, it means there's an anticipated or actual low demand, usually.  Production gluts are also a cause, but that's not the cause here.

Prices went down on everything, I"d note, during the Great Depression, once it was really rolling.

This is bad news, for Wyoming in particular.

DOGE cuts to AmeriCorps ‘a devastating blow to the state of Wyoming’: “What I struggle with most is that this is somehow an act of efficiency,” one stakeholder told WyoFile, adding that $40 is returned for every federal dollar invested in service in Wyoming.

In the 100 Day Cabinet meeting in which Trump's loyal retainers heaped praise upon him, the Dear Leader noted sacrifice in that maybe children this Christmas shall get only two dolls, instead of 30.

Let them eat cake. 

May 3, 2025

There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago and we traded it. We want a prosperous world but eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that I would call quite unstable, I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say ‘hahaha we won,” and other countries are envious.

Warren Buffet today.

May 5, 2025

And now we're going to hit foreign movies with a 100% tariff, apparently.

May 6, 2025

Governor sees ‘opportunity’ for Wyoming in Trump tariff war. Economist sees ‘disaster.’: State's trona and soda ash industry is particularly vulnerable to losing global buyers, while Gordon sees potential bright spots for mineral commodities, as well as new manufacturing.

May 7, 2025

If the large increase in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slow down in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.

Jerome Powell.

May 8, 2025

The US and the UK have apparently reached a trade deal, although the details are murky.

May 12, 2025

The US and China have agreed to cut tariffs for 90 days.

This is causing a stock market rally, but the roller coaster nature of this is once again notable.

John Barrasso was on Meet The Press yesterday and cited gas prices as evidence of Trump's economic wisdom, when in fact its ironically the opposite.

May 13, 2025

A 90 day pause in the trade war with China was agreed upon with each side dropping their tariffs by 115%.

The price of oil climbed to $62.48/bbl.

The order associated with this:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, I hereby determine and order:

Section 1.  Background.  In Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025 (Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits), I declared a national emergency arising from conditions reflected in large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, and imposed additional ad valorem duties that I deemed necessary and appropriate to deal with that unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security and economy of the United States.  Section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257 provided that “[s]hould any trading partner retaliate against the United States in response to this action through import duties on U.S. exports or other measures, I may further modify the [Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States] to increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action.”

In Executive Order 14259 of April 8, 2025 (Amendment to Reciprocal Tariffs and Updated Duties as Applied to Low-Value Imports From the People’s Republic of China), and Executive Order 14266 of April 9, 2025 (Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates To Reflect Trading Partner Retaliation and Alignment), pursuant to section 4(b) of Executive Order 14257, I ordered modifications of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) to raise the applicablead valorem duty rate for imports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) established in Executive Order 14257, in recognition of the fact that the State Council Tariff Commission of the PRC announced that it would retaliate against the United States in response to Executive Order 14257 and Executive Order 14259.

Section 4(c) of Executive Order 14257 provided that, “[s]hould any trading partner take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security matters, I may further modify the HTSUS to decrease or limit in scope the duties imposed under this order.”  Since I signed Executive Order 14266, the United States has entered into discussions with the PRC to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns.  Conducting these discussions is a significant step by the PRC toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters.

Pursuant to section 4(c) of Executive Order 14257, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to address the national emergency declared in that order by modifying the HTSUS to suspend for a period of 90 days application of the additional ad valorem duties imposed on the PRC listed in Annex I to Executive Order 14257, as amended by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, and clarified in the Presidential Memorandum of April 11, 2025 (Clarification of Exceptions Under Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, as Amended), and to instead impose on articles of the PRC an additional ad valorem rate of duty as set forth herein, pursuant to the terms of, and except as otherwise provided in, Executive Order 14257, as modified by this order. 

Sec. 2.  Suspension of Country-Specific Ad Valorem Rate of Duty.  Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025, all articles imported into the customs territory of the United States from the PRC, including Hong Kong and Macau, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 10 percent subject to all applicable exceptions set forth in Executive Order 14257 and the Presidential Memorandum of April 11, 2025.  This ad valorem rate of duty of 10 percent reflects (i) the modification of the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of China (including articles of Hong Kong and Macau) set forth in Executive Order 14257, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, and the retention of the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said order; and (ii) the removal of the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266.

Sec. 3.  Tariff Modifications.  In recognition of the intentions of the PRC to facilitate addressing the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14257, the HTSUS shall be modified as follows:

Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025: 

(a)  heading 9903.01.25 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting the article description and by inserting “Articles the product of any country, except for products described in headings 9903.01.26–9903.01.33, and except as provided for in heading 9903.01.34, as provided for in subdivision (v) of U.S. note 2 to this subchapter . . . . . . ” in lieu thereof;

(b)  heading 9903.01.63 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “125%” each place that it appears and by inserting “34%” in lieu thereof;

(c)  subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “125%”, and by inserting “34%” in lieu thereof; and

(d)  heading 9903.01.63 and subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS are hereby suspended for a period of 90 days beginning at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025.

Sec. 4.  De Minimis Tariff Decrease.  To ensure that the reduction in duties pursuant to section 2 of this order is made fully effective and the purpose of Executive Order 14257, as amended, is not undermined, I also deem it necessary and appropriate to:

(a)  decrease the ad valorem rate of duty set forth in section 2(c)(i) of Executive Order 14256 of April 2, 2025 (Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports), as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, from 120 percent to 54 percent;

(b)  retain in effect the per postal item containing goods duty of 100 dollars in section 2(c)(ii) of Executive Order 14256, as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266, that has been in effect since 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 2, 2025, unless and until otherwise modified by a subsequent executive action, notwithstanding the increase contemplated effective June 1, 2025, pursuant to Executive Order 14256, as modified by Executive Order 14259 and Executive Order 14266; and

(c)  modify the HTSUS, effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on May 14, 2025, as follows:

(i)   subdivision (w) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “120 percent”, and by inserting “54 percent” in lieu thereof; and

(ii)  subdivision (w) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “, and before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025.  For merchandise entered for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 1, 2025, the applicable specific duty rate is $200 per postal item containing such goods.”

Sec. 5.  Implementation.  The Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the United States Trade Representative, as applicable, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing, and the Chair of the United States International Trade Commission, are directed to take all necessary actions to implement and effectuate this order, consistent with applicable law, including through temporary suspension or amendment of regulations or notices in the Federal Register and adopting rules and regulations, and are authorized to take such actions, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA, as may be necessary to implement this order.  Each executive department and agency shall take all appropriate measures within its authority to implement this order.

Sec. 6.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

(d)  The costs for publication of this order shall be borne by the Department of Commerce.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump issued an odd order attempting to address the price of prescription drugs.

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:

Section 1.  Purpose.  The United States has less than five percent of the world’s population and yet funds around three quarters of global pharmaceutical profits.  This egregious imbalance is orchestrated through a purposeful scheme in which drug manufacturers deeply discount their products to access foreign markets, and subsidize that decrease through enormously high prices in the United States.

The United States has for too long turned its back on Americans, who unwittingly sponsor both drug manufacturers and other countries.  These entities today rely on price markups on American consumers, generous public subsidies for research and development primarily through the National Institutes of Health, and robust public financing of prescription drug consumption through Federal and State healthcare programs.  Drug manufacturers, rather than seeking to equalize evident price discrimination, agree to other countries’ demands for low prices, and simultaneously fight against the ability for public and private payers in the United States to negotiate the best prices for patients.  The inflated prices in the United States fuel global innovation while foreign health systems get a free ride.

This abuse of Americans’ generosity, who deserve low-cost pharmaceuticals on the same terms as other developed nations, must end.  Americans will no longer be forced to pay almost three times more for the exact same medicines, often made in the exact same factories.  As the largest purchaser of pharmaceuticals, Americans should get the best deal.

Sec. 2.  Policy.  Americans should not be forced to subsidize low-cost prescription drugs and biologics in other developed countries, and face overcharges for the same products in the United States.  Americans must therefore have access to the most-favored-nation price for these products. 

My Administration will take immediate steps to end global freeloading and, should drug manufacturers fail to offer American consumers the most-favored-nation lowest price, my Administration will take additional aggressive action.

Sec. 3.  Addressing Foreign Nations Freeloading on American-Financed Innovation.  The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative shall take all necessary and appropriate action to ensure foreign countries are not engaged in any act, policy, or practice that may be unreasonable or discriminatory or that may impair United States national security and that has the effect of forcing American patients to pay for a disproportionate amount of global pharmaceutical research and development, including by suppressing the price of pharmaceutical products below fair market value in foreign countries.

Sec. 4.  Enabling Direct-to-Consumer Sales to American Patients at the Most-Favored-Nation Price.  To the extent consistent with law, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Secretary) shall facilitate direct-to-consumer purchasing programs for pharmaceutical manufacturers that sell their products to American patients at the most-favored-nation price.

Sec. 5.  Establishing Most-Favored-Nation Pricing.  (a)  Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary shall, in coordination with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, the Administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and other relevant executive department and agency (agency) officials, communicate most-favored-nation price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers to bring prices for American patients in line with comparably developed nations.

(b)  If, following the action described in subsection (a) of this section, significant progress towards most-favored-nation pricing for American patients is not delivered, to the extent consistent with law:

(i)    the Secretary shall propose a rulemaking plan to impose most-favored-nation pricing; 

(ii)   the Secretary shall consider certification to the Congress that importation under section 804(j) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FDCA) will pose no additional risk to the public’s health and safety and result in a significant reduction in the cost of prescription drugs to the American consumer; and if the Secretary so certifies, then the Commissioner of Food and Drugs shall take action under section 804(j)(2)(B) of the FDCA to describe circumstances under which waivers will be consistently granted to import prescription drugs on a case-by-case basis from developed nations with low-cost prescription drugs;  

(iii)  following the report issued under section 13 of Executive Order 14273 of April 15, 2025 (Lowering Drug Prices by Once Again Putting Americans First), the Attorney General and the Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission shall, to the extent consistent with law, undertake enforcement action against any anti-competitive practices identified within such report, including through use of sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act and section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, as appropriate;

(iv)   the Secretary of Commerce, and the heads of other relevant agencies as necessary, shall review and consider all necessary action regarding the export of pharmaceutical drugs or precursor material that may be fueling the global price discrimination;

(v)    the Commissioner of Food and Drugs shall review and potentially modify or revoke approvals granted for drugs, for those drugs that maybe be unsafe, ineffective, or improperly marketed; and

(vi)   the heads of agencies shall take all action available, in coordination with the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, to address global freeloading and price discrimination against American patients.

Sec. 6.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii.) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

(d)  The Department of Health and Human Services shall provide funding for publication of this order in the Federal Register.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

Related threads:

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

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Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

The reciprocal tariff formula.

Sigh.

April 4, 2025.

What the administration actually did is took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.  Think it's just me?  Here's what the BBC had to say about it:

But if you unpick the formula above it boils down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

Which is a totally wacked way to do this.

This actually has nothing to do with tariff rates imposed by other countries, but trade deficits.  

It's an autarky baloney sandwich.


By the way, on the great businessman, the seven largest Dow Jones drops in American history:

1. Trump, 3/16/20  -2,997.10

2. Trump, 3/12/20  -2,352.60

3. Trump, 3/9/20  -2,013.76

4. Trump, 6/11/20  -1,861.82

5. Trump, 4/3/25  -1,679.39

6. Trump, 3/11/20  -1,464.94

7. Trump, 03/18/20  -1,338.46

What all of this is supposed to do is to reverse, and in a screaming hurry, the relocation of manufacturing to overseas. For example, 70% of footwear in the US is imported (only really good footwear is made in the U.S.).  Your Levis are probably made in Vietnam.  The problem is, reversing a trend that started in the late 1940s overnight can't be done, if at all, without massive economic disruption.

Added to that, some of what will be hit violates what Adam Smith, who didn't approve of tariffs at all, long noted, which is that if you make great whiskey in Scotland, and they  make great wine in France, you don't fix things by trying to make wine in Scotland.  

April 4, 2025

Never before has a president so recklessly and intentionally driven our economy off a cliff.

Theodore Roosevelt V. 

China has retaliated with 35% reciprocal tariffs.

The Dow opened today and dropped 1,100 points.

Brent Crude is $64.87, heading right into the unproducible price range for Wyoming.

JP Morgan says there's a 60% chance of a recession this year.

Trump was supposed to meet the families of four US soldiers who died in Lithuania in a training exercise as their coffins returned.

He canceled, dined with Saudi golf execs and sponsors for a golf tournament at one of his resorts.

What an asshole.

The current cover of The New Yorker has an illustration of the entire Trump cabinet riding an Atomic Bomb, as in the last scene of Dr. Strangelove, as they take selfies of themselves.

So, for Wyomingites, including those who moved in and backed the Freedom Caucus (and the natives who naively did), retirement accounts are being flushed down the toilet and there won't even be jobs at Walmart, and oil is tanking so soon rigs will be stacked.  Those on fixed pensions, like those who worked for school districts and the government, will be no better off, as the pension will become worth less every day.

And for more, on how this insanity will play out:

It's tariff time. How will tariffs impact you?

cont:

The view from the organization named after the man who developed the free trade theory:

Tariffs and the European Union

cont:

It should be noted that the US added 228,000 jobs in March.

cont:

"They Played It Wrong, Panicked"

Trump, on truth social, about China kicking the US in the nuts.

In reality, we played it wrong, and soon we're going to be down on the sidewalk getting kicked in the gut.

Did anyone seriously vote for this? 

cont:

The Dow, so far, today: −1,662.02 (4.10%).

So, for two days, it's down nearly 3,000.

Rig counts are down by two this week, down by 30 from this time last year.

cont:

Somebody I know looking to buy a used car found the price jumped $4,000 this week due to an increased demand for used cars.

cont:

Now down 2,000 points.

cont:

Closed 2,200 points down today.

Over 3,800 points down over two days.

That's sure making America Great Again.

cont:

Things actually appear to be changing in the GOP.  Ted Cruz, for one, suddenly got intestinal fortitude:

If we are in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods, that is a TERRIBLE SCENARIO!”

We have seen when one country jacks up tariffs, it can provoke a trade war, where each country accelerates tariffs, and the results would do a couple of things.  It would DESTROY JOBS here at home and do real damage to the economy…. This is going to have a POWERFUL UPWARD IMPACT ON INFLATION.

Cruz wouldn't be saying that if he didn't figure things are about to turn on Trump.

April 5, 2025

The Trump tax bill which extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and which cuts spending passed early this morning.

This is frankly disastrous as it perpetuates an ongoing deficit crisis.

West Texas crude is $62.00/bbl.

Cont:

Stellantis is laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities.  It directly cited the Trump Tariffs.  

Stellantis N.V. is a multinational automotive manufacturing company that manufactures and sells Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram Trucks, and Vauxhall, reflecting the international nature of the automobile industry.

April 6, 2025

Trump's Commerce Secretary said the quiet part out loud yesterday.  The hope is that if tariffs cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US, they'll return to AI robotic factories.

So the idea is to take jobs from Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc., and give them to robots. . . not living Americans.  There's a real element of evil in that.

April 7, 2025

Stock markets are plunging around the globe.  The Dow Jones opened 1,000 points lower.

On the weekend shows, the talking points were that Trump is going to negotiate, which last week he indicated he wouldn't, and that the tariffs cause a "one time price adjustment".

cont:

Looks like the Dow will close over 500 down.

April 8, 2025.

From the Tribune:

Trade wars threaten craft brewers

It has to deal with steel and aluminum prices.

cont:

Even Elon Must is criticizing the tariffs, calling Peter Navarro "dumber than a sack of bricks".

Later tonight, a 104% tariff will be imposed on China.

cont:

Canadian produced Dodge, Quebec advertisement.  Je me souviens.

And now Canada is imposing a 25% automobile tax on the US starting at midnight.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

And the Dow closed down 300 points.

cont:

Microsoft has canceled plans to build three new data centers worth in Ohio.

April 9, 2025

And good morning Wyoming. . . 

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

cont:

Somebody obviously got to Trump and gave him the dope slap.  San Francisco Chronicle:

Alert: Stocks surge after President Trump announces a 90-day pause on tariffs except for China, sending the Dow up 1,800 points

That's good news, but clearly Trump is not a stable genius.

cont:

The 10% tariff, which is still inflationary, remains.  

Trump's attributing this to 75 nations contacting the US on this, which is pretty much a "dog ate my lunch" excuse.  Somebody got to Trump and took away his McKinley cartoon bio and woke him up a bit.

The degree to which the US has lost credibility for being governed by an obviously dim character, of course, can't be immediately repaired. 

cont:

So, US 10 & 30 year bonds were being dumped by overseas holders.  That had to be stopped.

So the tariffs were stopped, or at least that's highly likely what occurred.

Stupid.   We shouldn't have been in that position.

Related Threads

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.


Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The dictatorial control edition