Monday, January 3, 1916. Sykes-Picot Agreement.

The fateful Sykes-Picot Agreement was entered into between France and the United Kingdom, or rather by  Sir Mark Sykes, Assistant Secretary for Middle Eastern Affairs to the British War Cabinet, and French diplomat François Georges-Picot, regarding the fate of the Middle Eastern Ottoman lands post war.

It held:

It is accordingly understood between the French and British governments:

That France and Great Britain are prepared to recognize and protect an independent Arab states or a confederation of Arab states (a) and (b) marked on the annexed map, under the suzerainty of an Arab chief. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) Great Britain, shall have priority of right of enterprise and local loans. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) Great Britain, shall alone supply advisers or foreign functionaries at the request of the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.

That in the blue area France, and in the red area Great Britain, shall be allowed to establish such direct or indirect administration or control as they desire and as they may think fit to arrange with the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.

That in the brown area there shall be established an international administration, the form of which is to be decided upon after consultation with Russia, and subsequently in consultation with the other allies, and the representatives of the Shereef of Mecca.

That Great Britain be accorded (1) the ports of Haifa and Acre, (2) guarantee of a given supply of water from the Tigres and Euphrates in area (a) for area (b). His Majesty's government, on their part, undertake that they will at no time enter into negotiations for the cession of Cyprus to any third power without the previous consent of the French government.

That Alexandretta shall be a free port as regards the trade of the British empire, and that there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards British shipping and British goods; that there shall be freedom of transit for British goods through Alexandretta and by railway through the blue area, or (b) area, or area (a); and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against British goods on any railway or against British goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.

That Haifa shall be a free port as regards the trade of France, her dominions and protectorates, and there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards French shipping and French goods. There shall be freedom of transit for French goods through Haifa and by the British railway through the brown area, whether those goods are intended for or originate in the blue area, area (a), or area (b), and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against French goods on any railway, or against French goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.

That in area (a) the Baghdad railway shall not be extended southwards beyond Mosul, and in area (b) northwards beyond Samarra, until a railway connecting Baghdad and Aleppo via the Euphrates valley has been completed, and then only with the concurrence of the two governments.

That Great Britain has the right to build, administer, and be sole owner of a railway connecting Haifa with area (b), and shall have a perpetual right to transport troops along such a line at all times. It is to be understood by both governments that this railway is to facilitate the connection of Baghdad with Haifa by rail, and it is further understood that, if the engineering difficulties and expense entailed by keeping this connecting line in the brown area only make the project unfeasible, that the French government shall be prepared to consider that the line in question may also traverse the Polgon Banias Keis Marib Salkhad tell Otsda Mesmie before reaching area (b).

For a period of twenty years the existing Turkish customs tariff shall remain in force throughout the whole of the blue and red areas, as well as in areas (a) and (b), and no increase in the rates of duty or conversions from ad valorem to specific rates shall be made except by agreement between the two powers.

There shall be no interior customs barriers between any of the above mentioned areas. The customs duties leviable on goods destined for the interior shall be collected at the port of entry and handed over to the administration of the area of destination.

It shall be agreed that the French government will at no time enter into any negotiations for the cession of their rights and will not cede such rights in the blue area to any third power, except the Arab state or confederation of Arab states, without the previous agreement of his majesty's government, who, on their part, will give a similar undertaking to the French government regarding the red area.

The British and French government, as the protectors of the Arab state, shall agree that they will not themselves acquire and will not consent to a third power acquiring territorial possessions in the Arabian peninsula, nor consent to a third power installing a naval base either on the east coast, or on the islands, of the red sea. This, however, shall not prevent such adjustment of the Aden frontier as may be necessary in consequence of recent Turkish aggression.

The negotiations with the Arabs as to the boundaries of the Arab states shall be continued through the same channel as heretofore on behalf of the two powers.

It is agreed that measures to control the importation of arms into the Arab territories will be considered by the two governments.

I have further the honor to state that, in order to make the agreement complete, his majesty's government are proposing to the Russian government to exchange notes analogous to those exchanged by the latter and your excellency's government on the 26th April last. Copies of these notes will be communicated to your excellency as soon as exchanged.I would also venture to remind your excellency that the conclusion of the present agreement raises, for practical consideration, the question of claims of Italy to a share in any partition or rearrangement of turkey in Asia, as formulated in article 9 of the agreement of the 26th April, 1915, between Italy and the allies.

His Majesty's government further consider that the Japanese government should be informed of the arrangements now concluded.

 And the boundaries of the modern Middle East, to a large extent, and the fate of millions of people, were accordingly determined.

The British Secret Service Bureau was reorganized to create several Special Branch law enforcement departments within the SSB.  Included amongst them was Section 5 of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, MI5.

Last edition:

Sunday, January 2, 1916.

Labels: 1910s, 1916, Art, Deer, Outdoor magazines

Thursday, January 1, 1976. Venezuela nationalizes its oil industry.

It was the start of the Bicentennial year in the United States in which the country would celebrate its 200th year of independence.  It was a big deal, full of celebrations and commemorations.  It was particularly notable if you were in school at the time, which I was (junior high).

Venezuela nationalized its oil industry, putting all of it, including foreign interests, in its state oil company.

Donald Trump has recently been complaining about this.

A lot of nations have done this over time, and its often been upsetting to US oil interests at the time, but the concept of nationalizing petroleum interests to some degree is not irrational, and while I haven't had the chance to post on it yet, quite frankly nationalization of undeveloped petroleum resources in the US is something that is at least worth talking about, even though it will never occur.

A Lebanese airliner exploded over Saudi Arabia from a bomb in the cargo hold.  All 81 people were killed in an act of terrorism for which the responsible party has never been determined, although Omani terrorists are suspected by some forces. Apparently the bomb was set to have gone off while the plane was empty and on the ground, but things went awry.

The Australian Defence Force came into being, giving the Australian military a unified command.

Last edition:

Sunday, December 28, 1975. Conflict in the Third Cod War.

Labels: 1970s, 1975, Argentina, boats and ships, Cod Wars, Dirty War, fishing, football, Icelandic Coast Guard, North Sea, Royal Navy, Sports, Third Cod War

Wednesday, December 23, 1925. Things in Arabia.

Wario2, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Peace having been concluded, Nejd troops entered Jeddah.

This was the conclusion of a monumental event that had been decades in the making, recreating, with slightly larger boundaries, the former extent of the First Saudi State which had come to an end in 1818.   It also demonstrated the tricky nature of British support, as both sides in the conflict had been supported by the British during World War One, although only the Hashemite Kingdom of Hejaz had been active supporters of the British backed Arab Revolt.

It took oil, of course, to make Saudi Arabia what it is today, and in part what it is, is a house of cards, still ruled by one family.

Henri de Jouvenel was appointed High Commissioner of the Levant, the French Mandate for Syria and Lebanon.

Last edition:

Sunday, December 21, 1925. Premier of Battleship Potemkin.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, 1925 at the movies, Christmas, Movies, USSR

Saturday, June 6, 1925. The Great Syrian Revolt.

Walter P. Chrysler incorporated the company that bears his name.

The Great Syrian Revolt against the French started when representatives of the Jabal Druze State were treated poorly by the French administrator.  Syrian rejection of French rule, however, had been smouldering since the end of World War One.

Indeed, this ties right into the events we've been otherwise cataloging regarding France at the end of World War One.  Syria and Lebanon had been granted near independence during the war, which France tried to renege on as soon as the Germans were defeated. Only British intervention, which nearly resulted in fighting between the French and British, stopped that from occurring and assured rapid Syrian and Lebanese independence.  French insistence on occupying the same territory at the end of the Great War nearly resulted in fighting between the same two European powers then and France had never been welcome by most of the regions inhabitants.

French attachment to the region is hard to really explain, but it is in part cultural and goes all the way back to the Kingdom of Jerusalem,1099–1187, 1192-1291, the long running "Crusader Kingdom" in the same region. Lasting almost two hundred years, the kingdom, which was mostly governed by French Crusaders, formed a strong cultural attachment to the region with the French.

The Saturday magazines hit the stands.

Last edition:

Wednesday,. June 3, 1925. Blimps and Stormy Weather.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, Blog Mirror, Iowa, Lighter than air aircraft, Nebraska, Petroleum, Weather

Friday, May 23, 1975. Leaving Laos.

Most American employees of the U.S Embassy in Laos were ordered to evacuate.

The U.S. has an embassy in Laos presently.  In fact, the countries never severed diplomatic relations and normalized them in 1992.

The Indochina Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1975 was signed into law by President Ford. The act provided for resettlement of South Vietnamese and Cambodian refugees into the United States. In 1975 it would be amended to include include refugees from Laos.

A military government was appointed to govern Lebanon.

Former President of the Teamsters Union Dave Beck was pardoned by President Ford.

Last edition:

Thursday, May 15, 1975. The Raid on Koh Tang.

Labels: 1960s, 1964, 1970s, 1975, Cambodia, Gulf of Tonkin Incident, Khmer Rouge, Mayaguez Incident, The Mayaguez Incident, U.S. Air Force, United States Marine Corps, Vietnam War

Monday, May 21, 1945. British government falls apart, French mandates want out, Himmler arrested.

The Polish Home Army attacked the NKVD Camp in Rembertów and freed political prisoners held there.

The Labour Party withdrew from the government forcing the UK into elections.

Today in World War II History—May 21, 1940 & 1945: Heinrich Himmler is arrested by the British in Bremervörde, Germany, disguised as a businessman.

Demanding full independence, Syria and Lebanon break off negotiations with France.

The 31st Division captured the Japanese supply base at Malaybalay on Mindanao.

Humphrey Bogart married Lauren Bacall.

Note how plainly the couple is dressed, compared to what is so often the case today.

It was his fourth marriage.  They had met just that year when she was 19 and he was 44.  They'd remain married until his death at age 57.

Last edition:

Sunday, May 20, 1945. Contracting in China.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Army, Berlin Germany, China, Imperial Japanese Army, Japan, Okinawa, Personalities, Philippines, United States Marine Corps, World War Two

Saturday, May 19, 1945. Landing in Syria and Lebanon.

The Australians took Tarakan Island.

More heavy fighting occurred on Okinawa.

The Czechoslovak Extraordinary People's Court distributed over twenty thousand sentences - seven percent of them being for life or the death sentence - to "traitors, collaborators and fascist elements."

Philipp Bouhler, age 45, Nazi official and philosopher committed suicide with a cyanide capsule while in a U.S. internment camp.

French troops landed in Syria and Lebanon to reassert control over the region.  The landings sparked protests from Arab nationalists.

Last edition:

Friday, May 18, 1945. Paying the consequences.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Army, Chinese National Army, Clean Wehrmacht Myth, Eamon de Valera, German American Bund, German Flensburg Government, Ireland, Karl Dönitz, Ku Klux Klan, Okinawa, The Holocaust, World War Two

Thursday, May 17, 1945. The emerging post war world.

The 43d Infantry Division captured the Ipoh Dam near Manila. 100,000 gallons of napalm were used in the American effort.

There was hard fighting again on Okinawa.

 Aircraft from the USS Ticonderoga attacked targets on Taroa and the Maleolap atoll, encountering limited resistance.

Dutch troops landed on Tarakan Island, reinforcing the Australian forces.

Denmark severed relations with Japan.

French forces landed in Beirut to reassert control of Lebanon.

A British white paper addressed post war independence for Burma.

Archbishop Stepinac of Croatia was arrested for the first time by the incoming Communists in Yugoslavia.

Last edition:

Wednesday, May 16, 1945. The Haguro sunk, U-boats surrender.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Armor, Battle of the Atlantic, Battle of the Malacca Strait, Channel Islands, German Kriegsmarine, Imperial Japanese Army, Japan, Manhattan Project, Okinawa, Weapons, World War Two

Tuesday, February 27, 1945. Hard fighting on Iwo Jima.

"In the background, behind the U.S. soldier and tank destroyer, the town of Irsch, Germany, burns. 27 February, 1945. 10th Armored Division."  Photographer: T/5 D. R. Ornitz.

Civil administration of the Philippines was handed over to President Sergio Osmeña.

Lebanon declared war on the Axis.

The U-327 and U-1018 were sunk by the Royal Navy.

Sgt. Ross F. Gray won a posthumous Medal of Honor on Iwo Jima.  His citation:

For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty as Acting Platoon Sergeant serving with Company A, First Battalion, Twenty-Fifth Marines, Fourth Marine Division, in action against enemy Japanese forces on Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, February 21, 1945. Shrewdly gauging the tactical situation when his platoon was held up by a sudden barrage of hostile grenades while advancing toward the high ground northeast of Airfield Number One, Sergeant Gray promptly organized the withdrawal of his men from enemy grenade range, quickly moved forward alone to reconnoiter and discovered a heavily mined area extending along the front of a strong network of emplacements joined by covered communication trenches. Although assailed by furious gunfire, he cleared a path leading through the mine field to one of the fortifications then returned to the platoon position and, informing his leader of the serious situation, volunteered to initiate an attack while being covered by three fellow Marines. Alone and unarmed but carrying a twenty-four pound satchel charge, he crept up the Japanese emplacement, boldly hurled the short-fused explosive and sealed the entrance. Instantly taken under machine-gun fire from a second entrance to the same position, he unhesitatingly braved the increasingly vicious fusillades to crawl back for another charge, returned to his objective and blasted the second opening, thereby demolishing the position. Repeatedly covering the ground between the savagely defended enemy fortifications and his platoon area, he systematically approached, attacked and withdrew under blanketing fire to destroy a total of six Japanese positions, more than twenty-five of the enemy and a quantity of vital ordnance gear and ammunition. Stouthearted and indomitable, Sergeant Gray had single-handedly overcome a strong enemy garrison and had completely disarmed a large mine field before finally rejoining his unit and, by his great personal valor, daring tactics and tenacious perseverance in the face of extreme peril, had contributed materially to the fulfillment of his company's mission. His gallant conduct throughout enhanced and sustained the highest traditions of the United States Naval Service.

 Gunnery Sergeant William G. Walsh likewise won a Medal of Honor:

For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty as Leader of an Assault Platoon, serving with Company G, Third Battalion, Twenty-seventh Marines, Fifth Marine Division, in action against enemy Japanese forces at Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, on 27 February 1945. With the advance of his company toward Hill 362 disrupted by vicious machine-gun fire from a forward position which guarded the approaches to this key enemy stronghold, Gunnery Sergeant Walsh fearlessly charged at the head of his platoon against the Japanese entrenched on the ridge above him, utterly oblivious to the unrelenting fury of hostile automatic weapons and hand grenades employed with fanatic desperation to smash his daring assault. Thrown back by the enemy's savage resistance, he once again led his men in a seemingly impossible attack up the steep, rocky slope, boldly defiant of the annihilating streams of bullets which saturated the area, and despite his own casualty losses and the overwhelming advantage held by the Japanese in superior numbers and dominate position, gained the ridge's top only to be subjected to an intense barrage of hand grenades thrown by the remaining Japanese staging a suicidal last stand on the reverse slope. When one of the grenades fell in the midst of his surviving men, huddled together in a small trench, Gunnery Sergeant Walsh in a final valiant act of complete self-sacrifice, instantly threw himself upon the deadly bomb, absorbing with his own body the full and terrific force of the explosion. Through his extraordinary initiative and inspiring valor in the face of almost certain death, he saved his comrades from injury and possible loss of life and enabled his company to seize and hold this vital enemy position. He gallantly gave his life for his country.

The British 21st Army Group took Udem and Calcar.

The Red Army entered Pomerania.

Last edition:

Monday, February 26, 1945. Syria declares war. US coal curfew.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Artillery, Axis Powers, Burma, Christianity, Coal, Corregidor, Judaism, Pacific, religion, Syria, U.S. Air Force

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

A bad time of the year to start a new edition, but the old one was just too long.

December 29, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin has apologized for the downing of a civilian airliner.

Syrian Civil War

Lebanon has arrested Syrian Army officers taking refuge in the country and suspended the operation of the Syrian embassy there.

British born Asma Fawaz al-Assad (أسماء فواز الأسد), wife of the fallen dictator, is rumored to be battling leukemia.

December 31, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia rejected the peace plan of Putin fan boy Donald Trump, who promised during his recent campaign for the presidency to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as soon as he was elected.

An element of the plan was eventual NATO membership for Ukraine.  It was to be delayed for twenty years.  Russia also rejected the deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Rejection aside, a person could easily question to what degree Trump himself came up with any of this.  The peacekeeper deployment was a good idea, as was NATO membership, although a twenty year delay was an awful idea.

And, so we close out 2024.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

Labels: 2020s, 2024, Hezbollah, Iran, Kursk Ukraine, Lebanon, Mercenaries, Middle Eastern War, North Korea, Russia, Russo Ukrainian War, South Korea, Trailing thread, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Weapons

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:

That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

December 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Finland has detained the Russian ship Eagle S after submarine cables in the Baltic were severed.  Estonia's parliament has gone into an emergency session on the Boxing Day holiday.

cont:

Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan.

December 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen with airstrikes yesterday.   The strikes impressively demonstrates Israel's ability to strike targets with precision at distance via its air force.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korean troops have sustained heavy casualties in combat against Ukraine.

Russia hit Ukraine in a massive air attack on Latin Rite Christmas Day.

December 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Houthis launched a massive missile raid on Israel yesterday.

South Korea

South Korea's legislature voted to impeach its acting president Han Duck-soo, two weeks after it voted to impeach its President Yoon Suk Yeol, in an example of how democratic bodies should act towards those who would seek to subvert democracy.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has equipped drones to shoot shotguns to take out other drones.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

Labels: Black Sea, Bolivia, Bolivian Army, Haiti, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, Joseph Biden, Kenya, Russia, Russian Navy, Russo Ukrainian War, Sun Tzu, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Yemen