Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:

That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

Labels: Black Sea, Bolivia, Bolivian Army, Haiti, Israel, Israeli Hamas War, Joseph Biden, Kenya, Russia, Russian Navy, Russo Ukrainian War, Sun Tzu, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Yemen

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

By Sergey Kondrashov - http://www.katagogi.com/LV2009/LebMap.aspx?l=EN, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=23421707

Israel is not "fighting Lebanon".  I've seen that claim made, but it isn't. 

It's striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, which translates as the "Party of God" is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and paramilitary group.  The party does control large sections of Lebanon where Shia is dominant religious group.  

Lebanon itself was carved out of Syria by the French during the French mandate period as it had a majority Christian population.  It's one of the few areas of the Middle East which still does, with Islamic repression over centuries having forced conversions and emigration throughout the Middle East.  Be that as it may, Lebanon is no longer a majority Christian state, and its a mess because of internal strife and division.

That came in due to the conflicts in the region, with the Palestinian refugee population of the 1970s being particularly problematic.  The country fought a civil war that lasted in one form or another from 1975 to 1990.  It's never been stable since.

It's very difficult to see a positive future for Lebanon in any form. That doesn't mean it won't occur, but it's hard to see.  

What can be seen, in my view, is an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon coming in the next week or so.

Saturday, August 30, 1924. Late summer scenes.

The Dawes Plan went into effect.

Germany replaced paper marks with a coin, due to hyperinflation.

Clashes with the Ku Klux Klan resulted in six deaths in Herrin Illinois.

The French High Commission of the Levant created Lebanese citizenship.

Edwards, Prince of Wales, met with Calvin Coolidge.

Saturday magazines were out.

Last edition:

Friday, August 29, 1924. The start of the Second Saudi-Hashemite War.

Labels: 1920s, 1924, Dawes Plan, It was because of World War One, Kingdom of Hejaz, Monarchy, Saudi Arabia, Second Saudi-Hashemite War, Sultanate of Nejd

Wednesday, August 3, 1944. Advances in Burma and Normandy.

The Siege of Mytkyina in Burma ended in an Allied victory over the Japanese.

The HMS Quon was sunk off of Normandy by German aircraft and ships.

The US 1st Army captured Mortain.  The 30th Infantry Division would win a Presidential Unit Citation for its defense to a German counterattack there.

The Germans blew up the bridges in Florence, Italy.

The USSR and Lebanon established diplomatic relations.

The British Education Act 1944 received Royal Assent.

Last edition:

Tuesday, August 2, 1944. Murder of the Gypsies.

Labels: 1940s, 1944, Aircraft, Auschwitz, Battle of the Atlantic, boats and ships, Guam, Gypsies, Normandy, Normandy Breakout, Operation Overlord, The Holocaust, Turkey, Warsaw Uprising, World War Two

Levantines

I've used the term "Coastal Arabs" here recently to describe the culture that stretches from teh Sinai to Turkey and which includes a lot of Syria.

Distribution of Levantine Arab dialect. By A455bcd9 - Own work based on: Levantine Arabic 2022.svgReferences:Brustad, Kristen; Zuniga, Emilie (2019) "Chapter 16: Levantine Arabic" in Huehnergard, John , ed. The Semitic Languages (2nd ed.), Routledge, pp. 403–432 DOI: 10.4324/9780429025563. ISBN: 978-0-415-73195-9. OCLC: 1103311755.Eberhard, David M.; Simons, Gary F.; Fennig, Charles D. (2022). Jordan and Syria. Ethnologue: Languages of the World. SIL International., CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=128220068

It turns out, the word that I should have used is Levantines.

The region has its own dialect of Arabic, its own (really good) cuisine, and those who genetic history from the region can be identified by their DNA.  

Yes, they are Arabs, but they are not Bedouin. 

Monday, November 22, 1943. The Cairo Conference, Lebanese Independence, Tarawa.

The Cairo Conference on the war against Japan commenced with Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Chiang Kai-shek in attendance.

Lebanon was granted independence.

Lebanon was not a French colony, but a League of Nation's mandate.  The event was nonetheless a clear signal that France's grip on its overseas colonies was rapidly slipping.

It was day three of operations on Tarawa.  On that day, Japanese Rear Admiral Keiji Shibazaki, who was directing the island's defense, was killed with his staff when a Marine spotted his staff walking to a secondary command post and called in Naval gunfire on the location.  He had boasted that the US couldn't take Tarawa in 100 years.

It in fact took four bloody days.

The RAF struck Berlin in a massive nighttime raid.

Friday, November 12, 1943. The Germans land on Leros.

 The Germans invaded Leros in the Aegean's/

German paratroopers preparing to board for drop on Leros.  By Bundesarchiv, Bild 101I-527-2348-21 / Bauer / CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5412561

We tend not to think of the Germans engaging in offensive operations this late in the war, but they did, of which this was a successful example. After four days of fighting, they'd take the island from its British, Italian and Greek defenders.  The island had been occupied by a reduced British force as the Italians, during their Axis period, had heavy fortified the port facilities. The US had not approved of the British, i.e. Churchill, focus on the Aegean, so it had not participated with the British in the occupation of various Aegean islands, including this one.

According to some, the novel The Guns of Navarone is based contextually on the Battle of Leros, but I don't see that really.

Leros is extremely close to Turkey. So much so, that it's a bit amazing that the island wasn't transferred to the Turks in 1923.  It has a Greek population, but it became an Italian possession in 1912 following the Italo Turkish War, one of the pre World War One wars that's nearly wholly forgotten now, leading to the commonly cited falsehood that Europe had been "at peace for fifty years" prior to World War One breaking out.  It was annexed by Italy in 1923.  It became a Greek possession at the end of World War Two.

The Allies won the Battle of Treasury Island in the Solomon's.

The Japanese bombed Darwin, Australia for the last time.

Remaining Imperial Japanese Navy aircraft are withdrawn from Rabaul. The overwhelming majority had already been lost.

The Allies bombed Arezzo, Italy, for the first time.

Franklin Roosevelt left for the Tehran Conference on board the USS Iowa.

Women in Lebanon turned out in the streets in favor of their deposed government.

The U-508 was sunk in the Bay of Biscay by a US B-24.

Dauntless above the USS Washington, flying a mission in support of landings in the Gilberts.

Thursday, November 11, 1943. Armistace Day.

It was Armistice Day for 1943.

Japanese American Girl Scouts walking in front of barracks and carrying American flags while incarcerated at Heart Mountain concentration camp, Wyoming, 11/11/43.

The Moscow Conference came to an end.

French security forces raided the homes of President El Khoury, Prime Minister Riad Al Solh, and all but two members of the Cabinet, including future President Camille Chamoun, in reaction to the unilateral Lebanese repeal of the League of Nations' mandate over the country.

High Commissioner Helleu suspended the Lebanese constitution and appointed Émile Eddé as the new President.

The dissolution and unraveling of the French Empire had commenced.

In France, Armée Secrète Resistance fighters led by Colonel Henri Romans-Petit placed flowers at the foot of the memorial for the dead of the Great War in an act of bold defiance of the Germans.

The Red Army took Radomyshi.

Allied bombing of Rabaul ended following a final raid, with nearly every Japanese ship there disabled or destroyed.

Sarah Sundin notes something about that raid:

Today in World War II History—November 11, 1943: In Rabaul raid, US Navy Curtiss SB2C Helldiver makes its combat debut. US Eighth Air Force activates “Carpetbagger” squadrons to deliver supplies to resistance.

The film Sahara, with heroic Allies stranded in the desert, and even a sympathetic Italian character, holding off the Germans, was released.

Three Allied transport ships and a tanker are sunk east of Oran in a major Luftwaffe raid.

1943  The Commander of the Prisoner of War Camp in Douglas announced that 1,000 Italians held at the camp would be helping with the fall harvest. Given the timing of the announcement, it would have to be presumed that the harvest was well underway at the time.  As Douglas itself is not in a farming belt, it would be interesting to know where the POWs actually went, and how they were housed.  Attribution:  Wyoming State Historical Society.

Monday, November 8, 1943. Lebanese declaration of independence, Battle for Piva Trail, Albanian landing.

The Lebanese legislature voted to end the French League of Nations mandate.  The French would accordingly arrest the government.

Radio Moscow reported only one Jew remained alive in Kyiv out of a prewar population of 140,000.

The two-day Battle for Piva Trail commenced on Bougainville.

From Sarah Sundin's blog:

Today in World War II History—November 8, 1943: US C-53 cargo plane carrying 13 flight nurses & 13 medics of the 807th Medical Air Evacuation Transport Squadroncrash-lands in Nazi-occupied Albania.

She reports they walked out over a period of two months.

More observations on the Hamas Israeli War. A sort of primer, war aims, and campaign aims. Part I.

War Aims.

A lot of reporting on the Hamas Israeli War, indeed nearly all of it, is devoid of discussion on war aims.  Some of it vaguely discusses Israeli campaign aims.  None of it so far that I've seen has discussed Hamas campaign aims.  Given that, a lot of the reporting is sort of naive.

Hamas, having started the campaign, will be discussed first.

Hamas was formed in 1987 (probably considerably more recently than many suppose.  Hamas controls Gaza, Fatah, the political arm of what had been the Palestinian Liberation Organization, controls the West Bank.  The two entities have actually fought each other.  Hamas started off with the goal of pushing Jews out of the boundaries of what had been the 1948 Palestinian borders, but earlier in the 2000s seemed to lessen its demands.

It seems to have returned to them.  As far as can be told, its war aims are to remove the Jews from Israel, dead or alive, and of any age, and create an Arab Palestinian, and seemingly Islamic (not all Palestinians are Muslims) state in its wake.  That's what's summed up in the phrase "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free", which like a lot of slogans is catchy but doesn't really convey the full meaning of what it seeks.

Those are the war aims.

Without abandoning them, Hamas cannot back down, and Israel cannot unilaterally realistically convert the current war into a large scale punitive action at this point.  War aims can change, but Hamas shows no desire at all to do so.  A limited raid that was not aimed at civilians could have been undertaken if it has some other goal, but it didn't.

The campaign aims are much more difficult to discern.  Perhaps it was to spark a wider war in the belief that it could be won, or perhaps it was just a gross act of terrorism in furtherance of its remote, unobtainable goal.

Of course, discerning campaign aims, is often tricky in regard to an entity like Hamas, or even large entities.  In spite of long knowledge to the contrary, they may have thought that their raid, if that is what it was intended to be, would scare Israel into submission.  Hitting civilians never does that.  The British didn't surrender after the Blitz, and the air raids on civilian populations in Germany and Japan, perhaps if we exclude the atomic bomb, didn't cause them to surrender either.  Air raids on military targets in North Vietnam which inflicted civilian deaths didn't cause North Vietnam to give up.  9/11 only made Americans mad, it didn't achieve whatever it was that Al Queda thought it would, which seems to have been a hoped for general economic collapse.

Israel's war aims are also simple.  Its goal is to destroy Hamas as it views it, correctly, as irreconcilably opposed to its existence and genocidal in nature.  Its campaign aims seem to be to occupy Gaza, or perhaps the northern portion of the Gaza Strip, trap Hamas, and destroy it and its infrastructure.

Outright destroying an underground organization, however, is very difficult to do. The US basically did it in Afghanistan, however, so it can be done.

Nobody is talking at all about what's going to become of the Palestinians.  Israel isn't addressing it. The Arabs aren't either.  Hamas is simply using their own people as human shields and for propoganda.

A cultural existential difference, or Why can't everyone get along?

Cultures play a part in wars, which people in the West are oddly inclined to forget.  Jimmy Carter famously absent-mindedly quipped that the problems between the Israeli's and Palestinians would go away if they all started acting "like good Christians", but of course neither group is predominantly Christian.

I've taken some criticism on a more stretched observation in this area recently, so I'll explain a bit what I mean.

This question posed above is really a Western one, filtered through our eyes, which are the eyes of heavy Christian influence.  As a South American atheist friend of mine once stated, culturally, "we're all Catholics", even if we often don't behave like it.  That's why we're shocked when people don't behave accordingly.  

Historically and culturally, that's not necessarily the default human norm at all, which doesn't mean that every non-Christian culture (including the two in question) default to bad behavior.   But, as Genghis Khan supposedly noted (often filtered in our culture through Conan the Barbarian in a modified form):

The greatest pleasure is to vanquish your enemies and chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth and see those dear to them bathed in tears, to ride their horses and clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters.

We don't think that way, and we don't want others thinking that way.

Back to this war, the fact of the matter is that these two groups of people aren't going to get along.  The Western concept that somehow they can be made to is simply in error at this point.

It might have been true a couple of times.  One was in 1948, just before the first Arab Israeli War broke out, although that's pretty debatable. The second time was when the 1993 and 1995 Palestinian Accords were reached. The big problem is that both times, large numbers of Palestinians simply rejected a future which included Jews within the 1948 Palestinian boundaries.

The 1948 rejection was accompanied by voting with their feet by the Palestinians, a logical choice but one that was taken advantage of by Israel in that it offered the opportunity to truly make the country principally Jewish.  Nobody can fault somebody for fleeing fighting, but the fact that it occured meant that a large Arab population removed itself.  If it had not, demographics alone would have repeated what in fact occured in Lebanon, where a majority Christian population at that time is now 32% of the population.

Instead of taking that route, the Palestinians first relied on Arab hostility to take the country back for them, and then for the PLO, which ultimately compromised on that, to do so.  Now, a certain percentage are relying on Hamas.

Regarding that calculation, relying on it in the 1950s, and even into the 1960s, wasn't irrational.  After that, it really started to be. At some point, the land belongs to those who live there.  It was Zapata who stated; “The land belongs to those who work it with their own hands”, which is how it should be (and how it's increasingly ceasing to be in the United States)  That same analogy pertains to revolutions.  It instinctively makes sense for the people ruled by another people to rebel, but not so much a people that had once lived in a land where the majority of the population isn't yours, and the majority of your population wasn't born in that land.  Indeed, the fact that the initial Jewish war for independence sort of violated that tenant is part of the reason that many nations around the globe were quite hesitant about supporting Israel early on, combined with the fact that it appeared they'd lose.

Beyond that, as an essay in Minding The Campus has related:

(Professor Mordechai) Kedar, a former officer in the Israeli Defense Forces, has spent his academic life studying Islamic and Arab history and society. He explains that the animus of Palestinians, Arabs, and Islamists against the Jewish state is based on the consensus of Islamic religious thought that believes that Jews as a religion, people, or nation are never to be the equals of Muslims, and so their independent state, Israel, must be “struck down.”

While that can be debated, there's at least something to it, or there has come to be.   For the most part, since World War Two, Middle Eastern Islam, which is its cradle, has become increasingly more "conservative", if that is the correct term, and militant over the decades.  That was always there, and indeed Saudi Arabia was founded due to the Saud family's alliance with a group so conservative it was regarded as heretical.  Islam does not have a real coexistence ethos as we'd understand it towards other religions.  It's often noted that it has allowances for "People of the Book", meaning both Jews and Christians, but that tolerance is limited and provides that they are to be second class citizens.

Neither Christianity nor Judaism have something similar towards other religions, which doesn't mean that individual Christian or Jewish societies are de facto tolerant.  People tend to generally be intolerant of any group that's different from themselves.

Interestingly, early Middle Eastern governments didn't have this feature to them, or at least not to the same extent.  Turkey just celebrated its 100th founding as a modern state, and that state was founded as a secular one.  Atatürk suppressed Islam in his country.  Jordan has always been a Muslim state, but the Hashemite family that rules it, and once controlled Mecca, has tended towards moderation consistently.  The Baath movement that controls most of Syria and once controlled Iraq was a fascist movement early on that included Muslim and Christian Arabs and which sought a secular state in the Middle East.  The PLO was a secular organization that leaned heavily on Communist thought.  There was at one time a strong sense amongst Arab nationalist that Islam had to be suppressed or, if not outright suppressed, the state's had to be secular. That really began to fall way with the Iranian revolution, and there's been a good deal of retreat from it since that time.

Which takes us to the current highly conservative (again, if that is the right word) Israeli government.

The current Israeli government is the most conservative, again if that's the word, one ever.  It follows part of the global drift towards far right populism.  Prior to the Hamas attack, it was receiving a good deal of pushback from Western nations and internally, in no small part due to an effort to subordinate the Israeli supreme court to the Knesset.  In the irony that all such conflicts create, that's all been forgotten now.  At any rate, a sharp turn to the right by Israel made it pretty clear that any current Israeli desires to really find a mutual solution to the problems now being fought over just weren't there.

All of which leaves us with this.

Hamas has attacked and made it clear that it thinks it can murder its way towards achieving its goals, a sort of accelerated variant of the 1939-1945 lebensraum at this point.  Israel can't allow that to happen.

There are paths to a lasting peace here, but nobody involved, or even with influence, is going to try to bring them about, so the question is whether the warring parties, or more precisely Israel, can bring it about by force.

Thursday, October 25, 1973. Ramping up to and backing down from war.

The US military was alerted that the Soviet Union was "planning to send a very substantial force" to intervene in the Yom Kippur War.  On the same day, perhaps ironically, Egypt and Israel accepted United Nations Security Council Resolution 340 creating a peacekeeping force between them that would omit US and Soviet troops.

The Local Government (Scotland) Act of 1973 was given royal assent.

Lebanon, which was not in a good place in relation to petroleum bans, provided that cars with even-numbered plates could only drive on even-numbered days, those with odd-numbered plates only on odd-numbered day.

Abebe Bikila (Amharic: ሻምበል አበበ ቢቂላ), Olympic marathon runner who won the1960 Summer Olympics in Rome marathon while running barefoot and the 1964 Tokyo Olympics marathon died as a result of an automobile accident sustained in 1969

Both his 60 and 64 runs were world records.

Saturday, September 29, 1923. Mandates and Floods.

The British Mandate for Palestine went into effect, as did the French Mandate for Syria and Lebanon.

With this, the British Empire, and I'd guess French Empire reached their maximum territorial extents.

The grim news kept coming in on the recent Cole Creek disaster.

Apparently the floods occured almost everywhere in Wyoming, and into Nebraska.

Sunday, September 19, 1943. Wars within the war.

The Markham, Ramu and Finisterre campaigns on New Guinea began with an Allied offensive in the Ramu Valley.

The Ramu Valley campaign would continue on through November, with the overall campaign carrying on until April 1944.

The Battle of Turjak Castle in Slovenia ended in a Slovene partisan victory against the Anti Communist Volunteer Militia, formerly allied to the Italian Army.  Part of the wars within the war feature of World War Two.

German forces and Cham Albanians began the Paramythia executions of Greeks in Paramythia.

Lebanese Maronite Christian leader Bechara El Khoury met with Lebanese Sunni Muslim senior politician Riad Al Solh and worked out the National Pact.  Under it, an arrangement was arrived upon in which a free Lebanon would have a Christian President and a Muslim Prime Minister.

The St. Louis Cardinals took the National League pennat with a 2 to 1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.

Tuesday, May 8, 1973. End of the Seige at Wounded Knee.

Today In Wyoming's History: May 8: 1973    Militant American Indians who had held the South Dakota hamlet of Wounded Knee for 10 weeks surrendered.

US Marshals with duck hunter pattern camouflage raise the flat at Wounded Knee. From https://www.usmarshals.gov/who-we-are/history/historical-reading-room/incident-wounded-knee

Sudan, much in the news recently, released all of its political prisoners as a new constitution went into effect.

Palden Thandup Namgyal gave up his absolute authority of Sikkim in an agreement with India.

Fighting broke out between Lebanon and the PLO.

Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals made his 242nd consecutive start, a 20th Century record, in a game against the San Francisco Giants.

Monday, April 9, 1973. Operation Spring of Youth.

Israel launched Operation Spring of Youth on Palestinian Liberation Organization targets in Beirut and Sidon, Lebanon.  Over 50 PLO operatives were killed to the loss of two Israeli commandos.

Shipboard Israeli commandos during the operation. By ניר מאור מוזיאון ההעפלה וחיל הים - ניר מאור מוזיאון ההעפלה וחיל הים, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43634278

The operation was part of the ongoing retaliation for the attack on Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics.

The United Nations Organization for African Unity conference on Southern Africa opened in Oslo, Norway, which is not anywhere near Southern Africa.  Norway was hosting the event.

As part of the Nixon effort to combat inflation, grocery stores were required to post signs at their meat counters listing the limit for prices per pound for meat. 

Friday, September 8, 1972. Israel begins to strike back.

On this day in 1972 the Israeli air force bombed ten PLO bases in Syria and Lebanon in retaliation for the Munich Massacre.  An attempted interception by the Syrian air force resulted in three Syrian aircraft being shot down.

Crest of the Israeli air force.

The British sitcom Are You Being Served? premiered.

Wedesday November 26, 1941. Japanese carriers depart the Kurils Islands.

Admiral Chūichi Nagumo's aircraft carrier task force departs for Pearl Harbor from the Kurile Islands, but with instructions that if contacted that negotiations have been successful with the U.S., it is to turn around and return.

On the same day, the US presented a proposal to Japan that it recognize the Chinese Nationalist government, withdraw from China and Indochina and agree to a multinational non-aggression pact.  The Japanese delegation asked for two weeks to study the proposal.  It stated:

Section I
Draft Mutual Declaration of Policy

The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan both being solicitous for the peace of the Pacific affirm that their national policies are directed toward lasting and extensive peace throughout the Pacific area, that they have no territorial designs in that area, that they have no intention of threatening other countries or of using military force aggressively against any neighboring nation, and that, accordingly, in their national policies they will actively support and give practical application to the following fundamental principles upon which their relations with each other and with all other governments are based:

1. The principle of inviolability of territorial integrity and sovereignty of each and all nations.
2. The principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
3. The principle of equality, including equality of commercial opportunity and treatment.
4. The principle of reliance upon international cooperation and conciliation for the prevention and pacific settlement of controversies and for improvement of international conditions by peaceful methods and processes.

The Government of Japan and the Government of the United States have agreed that toward eliminating chronic political instability, preventing recurrent economic collapse, and providing a basis for peace, they will actively support and practically apply the following principles in their economic relations with each other and with other nations and peoples:

1. The principle of non-discrimination in international commercial relations.
2. The principle of international economic cooperation and abolition of extreme nationalism as expressed in excessive trade restrictions.
3. The principle of non-discriminatory access by all nations to raw material supplies.
4. The principle of full protection of the interests of consuming countries and populations as regards the operation of international commodity agreements.
5. The principle of establishment of such institutions and arrangements of international finance as may lend aid to the essential enterprises and the continuous development of all countries and may permit payments through processes of trade consonant with the welfare of all countries.

Section II
Steps To Be Taken by the Government of the United States and by the Government of Japan

The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan propose to take steps as follows:

1. The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan will endeavor to conclude a multilateral non-aggression pact among the British Empire, China, Japan, the Netherlands, the Soviet Union, Thailand and the United States.
2. Both Governments will endeavor to conclude among the American, British, Chinese, Japanese, the Netherland and Thai Governments would pledge itself to respect the territorial integrity of French Indochina and, in the event that there should develop a threat to the territorial integrity of Indochina, to enter into immediate consultation with a view to taking such measures as may be deemed necessary and advisable to meet the threat in question. Such agreement would provide also that each of the Governments party to the agreement would not seek or accept preferential treatment in its trade or economic relations with Indochina and would use its influence to obtain for each of the signatories equality of treatment in trade and commerce with French Indochina.
3. The Government of Japan will withdraw all military, naval, air and police forces from China and from Indochina.
4. The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan will not support - militarily, politically, economically - any government or regime in China other than the National Government of the Republic of China with capital temporarily at Chungking.
5. Both Governments will endeavor to obtain the agreement of the British and other governments to give up extraterritorial rights in China, including right in international settlements and in concessions and under the Boxer Protocol of 1901.
6. The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan will enter into negotiations for the conclusion between the United States and Japan of a trade agreement, based upon reciprocal most favored-nation treatment and reduction of trade barriers by both countries, including an undertaking by the United States to bind raw silk on the free list.
7. The Government of the United States and the Government of Japan will, respectively, remove the freezing restrictions on Japanese funds in the United States and on American funds in Japan.
8. Both Governments will agree upon a plan for the stabilization of the dollar-yen rate, with the allocation of funds adequate for this purpose, half to be supplied by Japan and half by the United States.
9. Both Governments will agree that no agreement which either has concluded with any third power or powers shall be interpreted by it in such a way as to conflict with the fundamental purpose of this agreement, the establishment and preservation of peace throughout the Pacific area.
10. Both Governments will use their influence to cause other governments to adhere to and to give practical application to the basic political and economic principles set forth in this agreement.

The Germans withdrew from Sidi Rezegh and the British 7th Armored Division entered it.

Gen. Geoges Catrooux of the Free French forces in the Levant declared Lebanon independent.

Tuesday, September 2, 1941. Finnish victories and Bloody Tragedies

The first meeting of the Supply Priorities and Allocations Board, Washington, D.C., September 2, 1941.

On this day in 1941, Finnish forces completed retaking the Karelia Isthmus, territory that had been lost to it during the Winter War.  You can see this and other items here:

Today in World War II History—September 2, 1941

On this time, while Finland  had thrown its fate in with Nazi Germany, it's hard not to sympathize with their immediate war aims, of which this was one. This territory had been stolen from it by the Soviet Union, and in joining the war, it was taking back what it had only recently lost.  Indeed, it would stop its advance upon doing so.

Showing the true nature of its ally, however, on this day Germans, along with Lithuanians, killed 3,700 Jews from Vilna.

Australians in Lebanon were photographed on this day.

Major General A. S. "Tubby" Allen, commander of the Australian 7th Division, with Lt Colonel Murray Moten, commander of the 2/27th Infantry Battalion and his men.

Monday, July 14, 1941. Bastille Day and the Armistice of Saint Jean d'Acre

On this day in 1941 French forces in Lebanon and Syria officially ended hostilities with the British Commonwealth in what is known as the Armistice of Saint Jean d'Acre.  

It was Bastille Day.

The day was marked in British Palestine at a hospital for Free French troops.

That day had been transformed into a sort of memorial day by the Vichy regime.  It remained on France's official calendar of holidays, but was altered from a celebration of the initiation of the French Revolution to one commemorating France's war dead.  This was part of an overall Vichy struggle with republican symbols and holidays that saw efforts to recast many such things, where they were not discarded.

Hitler, if he took note of the day at all, obviously didn't celebrate it.  Rather, he was still pondering the imminent defeat of the Soviet Union, revised his directive of the previous day with a part "A", which read:

The Führer and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces

Führer Headquarters, 14th July 1941. 13 draft copies

On the basis of my intentions for the future prosecution of the war, as stated in Directive 32, I issue the following general instructions concerning personnel and equipment :

1. General:

Our military mastery of the European continent after the overthrow of Russia will make it possible considerably to reduce the strength of the Army. Within the limits of this reduced Army, the relative strength of the armoured forces will be greatly increased.

The manning and equipment of the Navy will be limited to what is essential for the direct prosecution of the war against England and, should the occasion arise, against America.

The main effort of equipment will be devoted to the Air Force, which will be greatly strengthened.

2. Manpower:

The future strength of the Army will be laid down by me, after receiving proposals from Commander-in-Chief Army.

The Replacement Army will be reduced to conform with the diminished strength of the Army.

The Chief of the High Command of the Armed Forces will decide, in accordance with my directives, on the employment of the manpower which will become available for the Armed Forces as a whole and for the armaments industry.

The Class of 1922 will be called up at the latest possible date, and will be distributed by the High Command of the Armed Forces in accordance with the future tasks of the various branches of the Armed Forces.

3. Arms and Equipment:

(a) The Armed Forces as a whole.
The arming and equipment of troops will be reduced to the requirements of the situation in the field, without reference to existing establishment scales.

All formations not intended for actual combat (security, guard, construction, and similar units) will be armed basically with captured weapons and second line equipment.

All requests for 'general Armed Forces equipment' will be immediately reduced or rejected in relation to available supplies, need, and wear and tear. Continued manufacture of such weapons as can be proved to be necessary will be decided in agreement with the Minister for Armaments and Munitions.

Plant (buildings and machine tools) already in use will not be expanded unless it can be shown that existing equipment cannot be put to full use by the introduction of shift working.

Work on all such permanent buildings for industry and the Armed Forces as are intended for use in peace-time, rather than for the immediate prosecution of the war and for the production of arms, will be halted. Construction directly necessary for the conduct of the war and for armaments will remain subject to the regulations of the General Plenipotentiary for Building. Buildings erected by civilian contractors will be limited by him to such as are most essential to the war effort.

Contracts of all kinds which do not comply with these principles will be immediately withdrawn.

The manpower, raw materials, and plant released by these measures will be made available for the main tasks of equipment and placed, as soon as possible, at the disposal of the Minister of Armaments and Munitions for use elsewhere.

(b) Army:
The extension of arms and equipment and the production of new weapons, munitions, and equipment will be related, with immediate effect, to the smaller forces which are contemplated for the future. Where orders have been placed for more than six months ahead all contracts beyond that period will be cancelled. Current deliveries will only continue if their immediate cancellation would be uneconomic.

The following are exceptions to these limitations:

The tank programme for the motorised forces (which are to be considerably reinforced) including the provision of special weapons and tanks of the heaviest type.

The new programme for heavy anti-tank guns, including their tractors and ammunition.

The programme for additional equipment for expeditionary forces, which will include four further armoured divisions for employment in the tropics, drawn from the overall strength of the armoured forces.

Preparations for the manufacture of equipment unrelated to these programmes will be halted.

The Army's programme for anti-aircraft guns is to be co-ordinated with that of the Air Force, and represents a single unified scheme from the manufacturing point of view. All available plant will be fully employed in order to achieve the delivery targets which I have laid down.

(c) Navy:
The Navy will continue its submarine programme. Construction will be limited to what is directly connected with this programme. Expansion of the armaments programme over and above this is to be stopped.

(d) Air Force:

The overall armaments program will concentrate on carrying out the expanded 'Air Armaments program' which I have approved. Its realization up to the spring of 1942 is of decisive importance for the whole war effort. For this purpose all available manpower from the Armed Forces and industry will be employed. The allocation of aluminum to the Air Force will be increased as far as possible.

The speed of the programme, and the extent to which it can be fulfilled, will be linked to the increased production of light metals and mineral oil.

4. The programme for powder and explosives will concentrate upon the requirements of the Air Force (bombs and anti-aircraft ammunition) at the expense of the requirements of the Army. Buildings will be restricted to the barest essentials and confined to the simplest type of construction.

Production of explosives will be limited to the existing basis.

5. It is particularly important to ensure supplies of raw materials and mineral oil. Coal production and the extension of the light metal, artificial rubber, substitute materials, and liquid fuel industries will be supported by the Armed Forces in every way, particularly by the release of miners and specialist workers. The construction of the necessary plans for the extended air armaments industry will be developed simultaneously.

6. The allocation of manpower, raw materials, and plant will be made in accordance with these principles.

7. The Chief of the High Command of the Armed Forces will issue the necessary orders for the Armed Forces, and the Minister for Armaments and Munitions for his sector, in mutual agreement.

signed: ADOLF HITLER

These directives are interesting not only in that he thought he'd won the war, by this time, against the Soviet Union, but that in he thought it would still require some prosecution against the British, and perhaps the United States, about which he didn't seem overly concerned.  That war, in his mind, was going to be primarily an air and naval war, and his decisions to start shrinking the German army as soon as possible reflected that.

In New York some kids were still acting normal.

Vladeck Houses, Madison St., New York City.   This was a housing project.