Sunday, February 11, 1945. Yalta winds up.

The final day of the Yalta Conference occurred.

It's interesting to note how many things in World War Two that outright failures or downright evil (I'd categorize this as a failure) took place or started on a Sunday.  People should have observed it as a day of rest.

The key results of Yalta were:

The US, UK, and USSR agreed that Germany would surrender unconditionally.

Germany would be divided into four occupation zones, each controlled by the United States, Great Britain, France, and the Soviet Union, although France was added later.

Berlin would be likewise divided into four occupation zones, each controlled by one of the Allied powers.

Free elections in Poland and other liberated areas, outside of Germany.

Germany would undergo demilitarization and denazification.

The Allies would establish the United Nations.

Nazi's accused of humanitarian and war crimes would be put on trial.

The USSR would declare war against Japan.

It's easy, I suppose, to be harsh on Yalta without appreciating that at the time it appeared the Soviets were on the verge of taking most of the Soviet Union, something that in fact would not happen.  The occupation zones made sense.

Poland and the territories in the east, outside of Austria, never had free elections.  The UN was established but after the Korean War it never lived up to expectations, which doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile.  It was, and is.  The USSR did declare war on Japan, but by the time it would did, its help wasn't needed and it made the post war world worse. 

Operation Veritable ended in an Allied Victory with the Canadian Army taking Kleve.

The U-869 was sunk by the USS Howard D. Crow and USS Koiner.

Last edition:

Saturday, February 10, 1945. German defenses.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Battle of Hürtgen Forest, German Wehrmacht, Hurtgen Forest, Luzon, Philippines, War Crimes

Before people get all giddy about the fall of Assad. . .

 we should keep in mind that, while reprehensible, he was not an Islamist.  

The group that seems to have come out on top. . .for right now, basically is.

And some rebel group is already fighting the Kurds.

Assad was a Baathist, which is to say a fascist.  Fascism is reprehensible, but it is a Western secular idea.  That doesn't make it great, but it also isn't a sectarian Islamic band of jihadist.

Some Syrian rebels are democrats.

Not all by any means.  Some are Sunni jihadists.  Some, Al Queda, are very extreme jihadist.  And in Syria, some are Kurdish nationalist.

We back the Kurds.

The Turks are backing the group that has the Sunni jihadist in it, perhaps because they oppose the Kurds.

Iran was backing the government, as was Russia, which is in no small part why Assad fell.  In its murderous desire to attack Israel, Hamas caused a war that brought Hezbollah in, with both backed by Iran, and they got utterly pounded.

Ukraine has done the pounding on Russia.

So now what?

Well, strong multinational efforts, including frankly a very strong UN peacekeeping force, are in order.  

But of course Donald Trump has already declared for doing nothing.

Doing nothing, is doing something, and that something won't be good for Syria in general, or the Kurds in particular.

Monday, August 21, 1944. Dumbarton Oaks.

The United States, Britain, the Soviet Union and China opened talks at Dumbarton Oaks in Washington that would help establish  the United Nations.

The battles associated with the Falaise Gap concluded.  The Battle of Marseille began.

Last edition:

Sunday, August 20, 1944. Advancing everywhere in France.

Labels: 1940s, 1944, Battle of Toulon, Falaise Pocket, German Army, Jassy-Kishinev Offensive, Normandy Breakout, Operation Dragoon, Operation Overlord, Prisoners of War, Romania, Vichy France, Weapons, World War Two

Wednesday, December 29, 1943. Rationing Bicycles

F.F. Calkin, of Cadillac, Michigan, and J. Ferber, of Camden, New Jersey, using British bicycles for transportation in England, 1943.

Today In Wyoming's History: December 29: 1943  Wartime quotas of new adult bicycles for January cut in half, with 40 being allotted to Wyoming.Attribution:  Wyoming State Historical Society.

Bicycles at high school in Texas, 1943.

This was no small matter.  Bicycles had increased enormously in importance due to the war.  The National Park Service notes:

The government rationed bicycles from July 1942 to September 1945. The goal was to reduce the amount of wartime materials used for bicycles, but also to ensure that those who rode instead of drove could get one (thereby saving on car tires and gasoline).[10]

Shortly after the December 1941 Japanese attacks, the government took over control of the bicycle industry. They halted the bicycle trade entirely, and forbade bicycles from leaving “a factory, a jobber, a wholesaler, or a retailer’s place of business after 11:59 tonight” (April 3, 1942). They hoped this would prevent hoarding, and also gave them the opportunity to evaluate supply and demand.

The government issued specifications for what became known as Victory bicycles. These were designed and built only for adults; bikes for children were not manufactured during the war. Victory bikes were lightweight, weighing no more than 31 pounds (lighter by about a third than pre-war). They were made of steel only with no copper or nickel parts, and a minimum of chrome plating. Paint was used instead on handlebars and wheel rims. Accessories like chain guards, bells, and whitewall tires were removed, and a maximum tire width of 1-3/8" was set.[12] Behind the scenes, there were disagreements between the OPA and the Wartime Production Board (WPB) about the necessity of bicycle rationing – were bicycles a luxury? Was the rubber needed to make bicycle tires better used for other war needs while people continued to put wear on the car tires they already owned? This debate was eventually resolved, and Victory bikes went into production.[13]

When rationing began in July 1942, the OPA had 150,000 Victory bicycles and 90,000 pre-war bicycles to divide up. To get a bicycle, you had to apply at the local rationing board and prove you needed a bicycle. For example, your job was too far to walk to, and there was no good public transportation. By August 1942, access to bicycles was further limited to health care workers, school teachers, fire fighters, and others in critical occupations. New and used bicycles became much in demand, as thousands used them to get to their war jobs.[14] Despite this, the numbers of bicycles made and allocated by rationing boards never met the actual demand.[15]

Sailors who had bicycled to Arlington Farms, a residence for women who worked in the U.S. government for the duration of the war, from Washington in search of a date, 1943.

Leo Pasvolsky of the State Department finished the draft for the United Nations Charter.

Gen. Eisenhower ordered Allied Commanders to avoid attacking historic Italian monuments to the extent that this was possible; stating:

We are bound to respect those monuments so far as war allows. If we have to choose between destroying a famous building and sacrificing our own men, then our men's lives count infinitely more and the buildings must go. But the choice is not always so clear-cut as that. In many cases the monuments can be spared without any detriment to operational needs.

The Royal Air Force resumed bombing Berlin, its Christmas hiatus having ended.

The Red Army took Korosten in Ukraine.

The Italian submarine Axum was scuttled after running aground off of Morea, Greece.  The boat had a very successful war record.

Address of His Holiness Pope Francis to the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28)

Pope Francis released this statement yesterday:

Mr President,

Mr Secretary-General of the United Nations,

Distinguished Heads of State and Government,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Sadly, I am unable to be present with you, as I had greatly desired.  Even so, I am with you, because time is short.  I am with you because now more than ever, the future of us all depends on the present that we now choose.  I am with you because the destruction of the environment is an offence against God, a sin that is not only personal but also structural, one that greatly endangers all human beings, especially the most vulnerable in our midst and threatens to unleash a conflict between generations.  I am with you because climate change is “a global social issue and one intimately related to the dignity of human life” (Apostolic Exhortation Laudate Deum, 3).  I am with you to raise the question which we must answer now: Are we working for a culture of life or a culture of death?  To all of you I make this heartfelt appeal:  Let us choose life!  Let us choose the future!  May we be attentive to the cry of the earth, may we hear the plea of the poor, may we be sensitive to the hopes of the young and the dreams of children!  We have a grave responsibility: to ensure that they not be denied their future.

It has now become clear that the climate change presently taking place stems from the overheating of the planet, caused chiefly by the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity, which in recent decades has proved unsustainable for the ecosystem.  The drive to produce and possess has become an obsession, resulting in an inordinate greed that has made the environment the object of unbridled exploitation.  The climate, run amok, is crying out to us to halt this illusion of omnipotence.  Let us once more recognize our limits, with humility and courage, as the sole path to a life of authentic fulfilment.

What stands in the way of this?  The divisions that presently exist among us.  Yet a world completely connected, like ours today, should not be un-connected by those who govern it, with international negotiations that “cannot make significant progress due to positions taken by countries which place their national interests above the global common good” (Encyclical Letter Laudato Si’, 169).  We find ourselves facing firm and even inflexible positions calculated to protect income and business interests, at times justifying this on the basis of what was done in the past, and periodically shifting the responsibility to others.  Yet the task to which we are called today is not about yesterday, but about tomorrow: a tomorrow that, whether we like it or not, will belong to everyone or else to no one.

Particularly striking in this regard are the attempts made to shift the blame onto the poor and high birth rates.  These are falsities that must be firmly dispelled.  It is not the fault of the poor, since the almost half of our world that is more needy is responsible for scarcely 10% of toxic emissions, while the gap between the opulent few and the masses of the poor has never been so abysmal.  The poor are the real victims of what is happening: we need think only of the plight of indigenous peoples, deforestation, the tragedies of hunger, water and food insecurity, and forced migration.  Births are not a problem, but a resource: they are not opposed to life, but for life, whereas certain ideological and utilitarian models now being imposed with a velvet glove on families and peoples constitute real forms of colonization.  The development of many countries, already burdened by grave economic debt, should not be penalized; instead, we should consider the footprint of a few nations responsible for a deeply troubling “ecological debt” towards many others (cf. ibid., 51-52).  It would only be fair to find suitable means of remitting the financial debts that burden different peoples, not least in light of the ecological debt that they are owed.

Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to speak to you, as brothers and sisters, in the name of the common home in which we live, and to ask this question: What is the way out of this?  It is the one that you are pursuing in these days: the way of togetherness, multilateralism.  Indeed, “our world has become so multipolar and at the same time so complex that a different framework for effective cooperation is required.  It is not enough to think only of balances of power… It is a matter of establishing global and effective rules (Laudate Deum, 42).  In this regard, it is disturbing that global warming has been accompanied by a general cooling of multilateralism, a growing lack of trust within the international community, and a loss of the “shared awareness of being… a family of nations” (SAINT JOHN PAUL II, Address to the United Nations Organization for the Fiftieth Anniversary of its Establishment, New York, 5 October 1995, 14).  It is essential to rebuild trust, which is the foundation of multilateralism.

This is true in the case of care for creation, but also that of peace.  These are the most urgent issues and they are closely linked.  How much energy is humanity wasting on the numerous wars presently in course, such as those in Israel and Palestine, in Ukraine and in many parts of the world: conflicts that will not solve problems but only increase them!  How many resources are being squandered on weaponry that destroys lives and devastates our common home!  Once more I present this proposal: “With the money spent on weapons and other military expenditures, let us establish a global fund that can finally put an end to hunger” (Encyclical Letter Fratelli Tutti, 262; cf. SAINT PAUL VI, Encyclical Letter Populorum Progressio, 51) and carry out works for the sustainable development of the poorer countries and for combating climate change.

It is up to this generation to heed the cry of peoples, the young and children, and to lay the foundations of a new multilateralism.  Why not begin precisely from our common home?  Climate change signals the need for political change.  Let us emerge from the narrowness of self-interest and nationalism; these are approaches belonging to the past.  Let us join in embracing an alternative vision: this will help to bring about an ecological conversion, for “there are no lasting changes without cultural changes” (Laudate Deum, 70).  In this regard, I would assure you of the commitment and support of the Catholic Church, which is deeply engaged in the work of education and of encouraging participation by all, as well as in promoting sound lifestyles, since all are responsible and the contribution of each is fundamental.

Brothers and sisters, it is essential that there be a breakthrough that is not a partial change of course, but rather a new way of making progress together.  The fight against climate change began in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the 2015 Paris Agreement represented “a new beginning” (ibid., 47).  Now there is a need to set out anew.  May this COP prove to be a turning point, demonstrating a clear and tangible political will that can lead to a decisive acceleration of ecological transition through means that meet three requirements: they must be “efficient, obligatory and readily monitored” (ibid., 59).  And achieved in four sectors: energy efficiency; renewable sources; the elimination of fossil fuels; and education in lifestyles that are less dependent on the latter.

Please, let us move forward and not turn back.  It is well-known that various agreements and commitments “have been poorly implemented, due to the lack of suitable mechanisms for oversight, periodic review and penalties in cases of non-compliance” (Laudato i’, 167).  Now is the time no longer to postpone, but to ensure, and not merely to talk about the welfare of your children, your citizens, your countries and our world.  You are responsible for crafting policies that can provide concrete and cohesive responses, and in this way demonstrate the nobility of your role and the dignity of the service that you carry out.  In the end, the purpose of power is to serve.  It is useless to cling to an authority that will one day be remembered for its inability to take action when it was urgent and necessary to do so (cf. ibid., 57).  History will be grateful to you.  As will the societies in which you live, which are sadly divided into “fan bases”, between prophets of doom and indifferent bystanders, radical environmentalists and climate change deniers…  It is useless to join the fray; in this case, as in the case of peace, it does not help to remedy the situation.  The remedy is good politics: if an example of concreteness and cohesiveness comes from the top, this will benefit the base, where many people, especially the young, are already dedicated to caring for our common home.

May the year 2024 mark this breakthrough.  I like to think that a good omen can be found in an event that took place in 1224.  In that year, Francis of Assisi composed his “Canticle of the Creatures”.  By then Francis was completely blind, and after a night of physical suffering, his spirits were elevated by a mystical experience.  He then turned to praise the Most High for all those creatures that he could no longer see, but knew that they were his brothers and sisters, since they came forth from the same Father and were shared with other men and women.  An inspired sense of fraternity thus led him to turn his pain into praise and his weariness into renewed commitment.  Shortly thereafter, Francis added a stanza in which he praised God for those who forgive; he did this in order to settle – successfully – an unbecoming conflict between the civil authorities and the local bishop.  I too, who bear the name Francis, with the heartfelt urgency of a prayer, want to leave you with this message: Let us leave behind our divisions and unite our forces!  And with God’s help, let us emerge from the dark night of wars and environmental devastation in order to turn our common future into the dawn of a new and radiant day. 

 Thank you.

I'll be frank that I've gone from being cautious about Pope Francis to being in the "non fan" category.  I do not, however, by that mean that I'm in the flirting with sedevacantism category like Patrick Coffin and the like.  He's the Pope.   I tend to think, however, that as the Pope he represents his generation of Westerner to a very large degree, which has retained a view it formed in its youth that things need to change in a "progressive" direction and be more "inclusive".  The better evidence is that this is in error and we see a strong trend in the young Church in the other direction. The ultimate irony of that is that the mantilla wearing young women at Mass may be much more representative of the future than the young man this state sent to the Synod.

And it's been hard to ignore that while the Pope struggles with his racing into oblivion and potentially apostasy European contingent and some of their American allies, he hasn't suppressed them.  He's done just that with his critics on the right. The recent actions against Cardinal Dolan are shocking, particularly while the leadership of a German church with lots of Euros but emptying pews are given verbal warnings but are not otherwise checked.  

But he continues to surprise in ways. Contrary to what people assert, he's never endorsed things long regarded as sins, even though he seems increasingly willing to tolerate them.  And on greater issues, he certainly remains both catholic and Catholic.

This is one of them.

The Pope here is indeed acting both very catholic and Catholic.  This is going to receive howls of protests in some quarters, including in those quarters of the West where populists assert they are acting on Christian principles.

Some of those howling will be Catholics, but as noted here earlier, in the United States, Catholics are often heavily Protestantized.  Not all Protestants will object to this statement, of course, and I'd be surprised if any serious "main line" Protestant body does.  But people like Speaker of the House Mike Johnson will, and others will object to it along similar lines as he's likely to, assuming he says anything (which he's not likely to, as 1) taking on the Pope is a bad idea, and 2) it's definitely a bad idea if you are from a state with a lot of Catholics).  Other politicians will of course oppose this, and will do so openly if they're in a place that's safe to do it.

And as noted, some rank and file Catholics in the U.S., and I imagine in the increasingly MAGAized Canadian West, will as well.

Tuesday, November 9, 1943. Humanitarian Efforts.

The United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration was created 

Senate Resolution 203 was introduced, calling for the Federal Government to come up with a plant to save "the surviving Jewish people of Europe from extinction."  House Resolutions 350 and 352 were passed calling for the creation of an agency to resettle those survivors to neutral nations.

Marines on Bougainville, November 1943.

The U.S. Marines prevailed in the Battle for Piva Trail.  The 3d Marine Division advanced off the beachhead at Cape Tarokina.  The U.S. Army's 37th Division began landing on the island.

Gen. Giraud and Gen. Georges resigned from the Free French Committee of National Liberation.  Giraud remained its militar commander in chief.

The U-707 was sunk near the Azores by an RAF B-17.

Wednesday, October 24, 1973. War Powers.

President Nixon vetoed the War Powers Act.  His veto was overridden on November 7.

A second ceasefire between Egypt and Israel went into effect in the Yom Kippur War.  By this point in the war Egyptian gains had been more than reversed.

At the same time, the Soviet Union threatened to deploy its troops to aid Syria, giving a warning to the US to that effect. As a result, the U.S. went to Defcon 3

Kojak premiered.

The day was the first UN World Development Information Day, which coincided with United Nations Day.

Wednesday, October 20, 1943. Naval events, Polish hero.

A Navy PBY and a Japanese Navy G4M exchanged fire off of Attu.  The unlikely exchange by two non fighter aircraft was the last combat action off of Alaska and the last off of any U.S. territory that would be part of the present fifty states.

Two gasoline tankers collided off of Palm Beach, Florida and exploded, killing 73 people on board one and 43 on board another, far more people than modern ships carry of the same type.  There were 28 survivors.

The United Nations War Crimes Commission was established.

The U-378 was sunk by U.S. aircraft.

From Sarah Sundin's blog:

Today in World War II History—October 20, 1943: 80 Years Ago—Oct. 20, 1943: Germans arrest Polish social worker Irena Sendler for smuggling 2,500 Jewish children out of the Warsaw ghetto.

As she notes, Polish resistance bribed camp guards to release her and mark her down as executed. She lived until 2008.

Tuesday, September 18, 1973. The United Nations and the two Germanys.

The Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic were admitted to the United Nations.

King Hussein issued a general amnesty for Palestinian terrorists held by Jordan.

Wednesday, September 11, 1923. The British Empire in Southern Africa.

Southern Rhodesia became a British colony when the British government took it over from the British South Africa Company due to a 1922 referendum.  Prior to that time, it had been informally been known as Zambesia, based on the Zambezi River. It would form a government on October 1 and would retain its status, sort of, as a British colony until 1964.  

Flag of Southern Rhodesia.

Southern Rhodesia, massively British in terms of its colonial character, saw itself in that fashion, and its white residents had been highly supportive of World War One.  They would be again of World War Two.

Flag of Northern Rhodesia.

In 1953, it was confederated by the British with Northern Rhodesia, which had a larger landmass.  In the 1950s, it began to fall apart with the rise of African nationalism.  Northern Rhodesia became independent and changed its name to Zambia in 1964, interestingly changing its name during the course of the Olympics, and therefore entering the games with one name and exiting it with another.

Flag of Zambia.

When Northern Rhodesia became independent, with the cooperation of the British government, it struck fear into Southern Rhodesian whites, and the country, which was controlled by them, issued its Unilateral Declaration of Independence as Rhodesia in 1965.  The winds of change already well set in, Rhodesia, while it had cooperation from various countries, was unrecognized by any.  It fought an increasingly losing battle against African nationalist forces in the 60s and 70s, and returned to British colonial status brief in 1979, before becoming the current state of Zimbabwe.

Rhodesian flag.

Unfortunately, since independence its history has not been a happy one, as it fell to one party rule under Robert Mugabe, something it only recently overcame.  Zambia, spared a post-colonial war, has fared better, and indeed uniquely for a post colonia African nation, had an Acting President in recent memory who was of European (Scottish) descent.

Finnair, the Finnish national airline, was incorporated as Aero O/Y.

The Convention for the Suppression of the Circulation of and Traffic in Obscene Publications was signed in Geneva by members of the League of Nations. The anti pornography treaty is still in effect, accepted and amended by the United Nations, although a person would hardly know it.

Bulgaria arrested 2,500 Communist suspected of plotting an uprising.

Friday, May 11, 1973. Charges dropped, sovereignty recognized.

Espionage charges against Daniel Ellsberg were dropped due to prosecutorial misconduct.

Ellsberg is still alive, but suffering terminal pancreatic cancer.  He's 92 years old.

The Federal Republic of Germany ratified the Grundiagenvertrag treat with the German Democratic Republic, in which both countries recognized the sovereignty of the other.  The Bundestag also voted to join the United Nations, accepting the condition that East Germany also be allowed to join.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six

M577 howitzers in Ukraine.  The British designed howitzer has been supplied to the Ukrainian forces by the United States, Canada and Australia.  It is arguably the best towed artillery piece in the world.  By Arsen Fedosenko - https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/309101904718635, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=117964601

May 24, 2022

Yes, part six.  In a normal year, there's one version of this all year long.  This year, thanks to Russia forgetting that it's not 1945, we're in the sixth installment.

Which is to say that the war in Ukraine has caused the massive ongoing expansion of this thread.

Okay, situation wise, where are we?

Here's the history of the war to date, in the map that demonstrates the Russian advance. . . and retreat.

By MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles - Own work derived from File:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg, originally by ViewsridgeItself derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115563226

Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated.  The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.

After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity.  Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one.  Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917.  Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days.  At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.

Instead, a  highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place.  As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons.  Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.

The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used.  Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating.  Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however.  Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery.  Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.

 Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this.  Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error.  Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now.  Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.

Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair.  Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed.  Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase.  An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now.  Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.

Russia's actions have managed to unite the West to a degree it hasn't been in decades.  Its military is discredited in every sense, including morally.  How this ends is now being discussed openly, but no matter how it ends, it will be some species of Russian defeat.

May 26, 2022

Moscow has raised the age limit, previously 40, to 50, in which volunteer for service in the Russian army.

May 26, 2022, cont.

Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine Donations

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Governor Gordon has extended his appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.

Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were donated.

“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.

Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation; Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.

-END-

May 28, 2022

Russian forces have been trying to take Severodonetsk, but they've failed to encircle the city and their progress has been slow.  They have, however, entered part of the city.

They've also been countering a Ukrainian offensive attempt to reclaim Kherson.

Ukrainian partisans units are now operating in the South in areas occupied by the Russians.

May 30, 2022

The Russians, back up by artillery, have been attempting a direct assault of Severodonetsk, abandoning the envelopment strategy they had been deploying.

Orthodoxy in Ukraine saw a split in loyalties before the war commenced, with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church seeking, and receiving, recognition from the head of the Greek Orthodox Church of autocephalous status.  When that occurred, the Russian Orthodox Church, which it had been part of, refused to recognize that.  Now, that portion of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which remained loyal to the Russian Metropolitan declared its full independence.

This is a confusing situation because if it is independent, its position seemingly now matches that of the larger portion of the church was severed from Moscow prior to the war.

June 1, 2022

The EU has agreed to mostly end oil imports from Russia by the end of the year.

The Russians have largely taken Severodonetsk, but at the same time the Ukrainians are doing well near Kherson.

Belorussia is releasing stores of military equipment to Russia.

Some Russian recruitment centers in Russia have been subjected to attacks by Russians.

June 4, 2022

In spite of dire predictions, fighting goes on in Severondonetsk.  Indeed, it seems Ukrainian units backfilled areas taken by the Russians after they were through then.  They appear largely stalled almost everywhere.

After repeated pleas for them, the US is indicating it will supply four HIMARS systems to Ukraine.

Note, it's only four.

The system is incredibly advanced and accurate.  It's replaced heavy artillery, along with other similar rocket systems in the US inventory.

The rockets are GPS guided, which results in an interesting open additional step for the U.S. in that U.S. satellites are now openly and obviously part of Ukrainian targeting, or will soon be.

June 6, 2022

Russia has hit Kyiv with missiles again, striking a railway repair station.

Russian Maj. Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed in action.

A Ukrainian counter-attack has taken back parts of Severodonetsk.

June 10, 2022

The Russians are in fact deploying T-62s in Ukraine, a tank first introduced in 1961, a tank that is generally regarded as having been outclassed by the British Chieftain and the American M60 shortly after its introduction.  They are also pulling mines out of storage that were manufactured in the 1950s, and 152mm howitzers and MRLS systems that were in storage and are of older models.

Front lines have been nearly static.

June 16, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Fighting remains fairly static and in fact is still going on in Severondonetsk. Ukraine has desperately been asking for more artillery.

Ikea is selling its Russian factories.

War On ISIL

A U.S. ground raid in Syria today resulted in the capture of a senior ISIL leader.

June 17, 2022

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania committed to not requiring Ukraine to terms to end the war.  In effect, this is a pledge of unconditional support.

Up to three American volunteers have been reported missing in action in Ukraine.

June 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Commander of Russian Airborne Forces Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov has been relieved of his command due to the poor performance of Russian airborne forces in the war.

Afghanistan.

A terrorist attack in Kabul targeted a Sikh temple.

June 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk

Ukraine has been approved as a candidate for membership in the EU, the Russian war effort therefore having brought about one of the very things Putin hoped to prevent.  Obtaining membership will require Ukraine to meet a set of conditions, including an ongoing committement to democracy and rooting out entrenched corruption in the government.

The Russian Navy has been ordered to mine Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

Ukraine has pummeled installations on Snake Island.

June 28, 2022

Russia has defaulted in its debt, the first time a major country has done so since 1918.

A Russian missle strike hit a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.

Russian manpower shortages have run up against a Russian desire to avoid a general mobilization, which is interesting in that there's nothing other than public opinion that really precludes the Russians calling one.  They're obviously reluctant to do so, as it would of course mean that they're have a difficult time with a much smaller neighbor.

June 28, 2022, cont

Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022

Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022

Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.

As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.

Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.

Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.

As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.

I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.

June 30, 2022

The big overall news is that the way is now clear for NATO membership for Finland and Sweden to go to the member countries parliaments for approval, with approval almost assured.

In large part, Russia launched this war to keep Ukraine from entering the EU and then later joining NATO.  During the war its drawn close to both, and now NATO has expanded.

Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island, which it took early in the war.   The island likely never had any strategic value to their war effort and overall they more than paid for taking it.

July 3, 2022

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk, allowing the Russians to take the city.

July 7, 2022

No doubt expressing frustration with the NATO support to Ukraine, lead by the United States, a Putin ally threatened that Russia may seek to "take back" Alaska.

The war itself was static yesterday, perhaps expressing a Russian pause, probably by necessity, after recent gains.

July 15, 2022

Russia is looking at procuring drones from Iran.

Russia is also conducting a largescale recruiting drive for volunteer battalions raised for the war, and from its federal regions.  This is interesting in that they're not really conventional soldiers in the Russian Army, but sort of regional volunteers.  

Russia has been having trouble raising manpower for the war, and it hsa been unwilling to formally mobilize for various reasons.

July 22, 2022

In an extremely unusual wartime deal, Russia and Ukraine both entered into agreements with the UN and Turkey which allow for grain exports from the region as well Russian fertilizer to safely leave Black Sea ports.

While neutrals intervening on freedom of commerce and freedom of the seas to allow such things to happen has happened in the past, warring parties agreeing to such an arrangment is extremely unusual.

July 27, 2022

Current state of the war according to the British Ministry of Defense:

The Russians seem to be trying to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region prior to attempting to annex it. The Ukrainians are trying to take it back against heavy odds.

July 28, 2022

Ukraine has used percision U.S. missles to wipe out the use of the Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnieper River.  The .9 mile long structure was used by the Russians to supply their forces at Kherson.

Russia launched massive missle strikes against Ukrainian targets yesterday, including Kyiv.

The Russians are down to only two ground offensive operations as they apparently not able to sustain more.  They're also importing non Russian workers into the Donbas due to Ukrainian civil resistance to going back to work in the region.

August 3, 2022

• China/Taiwan

Red China is conducting military maneuvers in a childish reaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.

Senior US figures have visited Tawian before, but not for 25 years.  In the intervening quarter century China's ecnomic importance has risen dramatically, something which was exposed due to COVID 19 shortages, but overall the country is much weaker than generally supposed, or than it itself figues.  It has started, in all regards, to act much in the same way that late stage Imperial Germany did.

• Afghanistan/Al Qaida

The United States killed a senior Al Qaeda leader who had particiapted in the 9/11 attacks by way of a drone strike inside of Aghanistan.

The US of course withdrew from the country in 2021, but still asserts the right to strike Al Qaeda and other figures who are operating within the country.

August 3, cont:

The U.S. Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Norway to NATO.

Josh Hawley, Missouri, cast the only note vote.

ugust 5, 2022

• China/Taiwan

Taking a childish page out of North Korea's temper tantrum cartoon book, China fired missiles yesterday to show that they're feeling upset and that they have missiles, this of course following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.

• Russo Ukrainian War

A Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, has caused Russia to halt its offensive operations and redeploy troops in the south and Crimea.  This is pretty ample proof of Russia's inability to conduct multiple operations at one time, and of their fear that the Ukrainian offensive may start regaining lost ground.

Russia has been shelling near a Ukrainian nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe, repeating its earlier stupidity from a different nuclear site earlier in the war.

Power use restrictions have been going into place in Europe due to the withdrawal of Russian petroleum.

August 6, 2022

• China/Taiwan

China has cut cooperation with the United States over a host of issues, including climate change, due to its pique over Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.

North Korea entered the game and is also criticizing the US over the same matter, which of course is of little importance as North Korea is pretty much universally irrelevant except as a regional menace.

Speaking of North Korea. . . 

• Russo-Ukrainian War

North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine.  It's been noted that this would mean that Russia would have to feed 100,000 North Koreans that North Korea has trouble doing.

I doubt Russia will take this offer up as it would probably be more trouble than it would be worth, in spite of the infusion of 100,000 men.  If it does, the North Koreans will principally be cannon fodder.

A top Russian researcher on hypersonic weapons has been arrested for high treason.

• Israel/Gaza

Israel launched airstrikes into Gaza to address threats it states its identified.  Retaliation came in the form of missile strikes.

August 8, 2022

• Russo-Ukrainian War

Putin has apparently relieved three senior Russian generals from their commands within the past week.

• Israel/Gaza

The parties have entered into a truce which seems to be holding.

August 9, 2022

Russia is believed to have sustained over 80,000 casualties in Ukraine so far, of which reportedly 42,000 have been killed.

In comparison, the Russians lost around 15,000 men in their war in Afghanistan.

The U.S. is sending an additional $1B in weapons to Ukraine.

August 12, 2022

Russia has been recruiting from its prison system for soldiers, offering them the end of their prison terms if they will enlist in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.  

It is also mobilizing, or putting on a war time footing, its defense industry.

August 14, 2022

A news report holds that Ukrainian partisan action is increasing in occupied areas.

Ukraine whiped out another bridge that was vital to the Russians resupplying their troops at Kherson.

August 15, 2022

The Russians are attempting to take Donestk.

August 16, 2022

The Russian Army has left 20,000 troops stranded on the western bank of the Dnipro due to a withdrawal made necessary by Ukrainian action near Kherson.

August 17, 2022

Apparent partisan action or commando action set off a Russian ammo dump in Crimea.

August 21, 2022

• Somalia

Al-Sabab seized a hotel in Mogodeshu which has now been retaken by Somalian security forces which in turn freed over 100 captives that were seized by the Islamic militants in the raid.

If there's any good news in this it would be that Somalia is sufficiently organized now so as to have security forces.

• Russo-Ukrainian War

Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.

August 23, 2022

Ukraine has announced that 9,000 of its troops have died in the war so far.

August 24, 2022

• United States/Islamic militants

The U.S. conducted an air strike on Iranian backed militants in Syria after a recent drone attack on an installaation the U.S. uses in Syria.

• Russo-Ukrainian War

Russia has placed approximately 1,000 children, presumably orphaned in some fashion, with Russian adoptive familes.  Relocating children with the intent to destroy their culture is defined as genocide.

Reluctance by the residents of Luhansk to continue to fight in the Russian war has caused Russia to deploy sercurity forces to the oblast.

August 29, 2022

Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.

A new Russian anti Putin Russian organization has taken credit for this attack.

August 30, 2022

Ukraine has launched an offensive in the Kherson Oblast.

The move was expected, and publicly announced yesterday.  It may determine the results of the war.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five

Recent related threads:

M'eh. Okay pre Boomer.

Pandemic

Seattle Washington during the 1918/19 Spanish Flu Pandemic.

Well, guess we might as well start a running thread on this.  This now dominates the news, it's a major event in the history of the world, and there's something every day.

Not that we will be reporting on it every day.

At this point, I've had one blood relative and his wife, and his brother and sister in law come down with the disease in my hometown.  So it's hit home.  My daughter, wife and myself have all been sick with something, but we're quite certain its not that.  Still, this is a weird time to get sick with anything.

We'll update as we go along, but we've already reported on this story a lot.  As of this moment, there are twenty seven threads here that mention the pandemic, although not all of them are dedicated threads.   The more ore less dedicated ones are below.

We'll be the first to note, as well we should, that some of our earlier threads were flat out wrong.  Things have gone from scary to bad to worse.  

This week, promises to be the worst in the country so far.  Over the weekend, the Administration braced the public for it to be "the worse", but I doubt it will be. There will be worse weeks yet to come.

So we'll start collecting some threads here in a general running fashion.  We'll otherwise keep running individual entries as we see fit. After all, this isn't a major well read website, so we can do as we please.

But be careful out there.

April 6, 2020

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Here's an extremely interesting scientific analysis of peaks and deaths projected for the US, assuming that the current social distancing keeps on keeping:

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

A person wouldn't want to run around claiming to be optimistic from this data, but it is more optimistic than other recent projections.  If this is correct, the peak should come on April 15.

That's the peak. That doesn't mean things are over.

It also shows the pandemic basically being over in the United States by some  point in early June.  And it 81,766 deaths through August. That's a large death toll, but it is much less than the 675,000 who died in the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic.

That's right, 675,000.

It's more Americans who lost their lives in Vietnam or Korea, but actually not a lot more than died due to the flu last year, which was estimated at 61,000 people.  Last year was a really bad flu year.  The estimates are that this year 34,000 Americans will die from the flu.

These are projections, of course, and they assume the social distancing, etc., keeps on keeping on, which it looks like it will.

April 6, 2020, part two.

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Here's a headline that I didn't expect to see:

Fremont County greenhouse, garden experts promote growing world war-era 'victory gardens'

The article goes on to note that Fremont County organizers have started a Victory Garden 2020 campaign and base part of their argument on food security, which the maintain is a demonstrated need due to the Coronavirus Pandemic.

April 7, 2020

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Legendary singer-songwriter John Prine, who pioneered the 1970s genre of "New Grass" folk music, died of the Coronavirus.  He had recently been reported to be recovering.

Prine was a favorite of mine.  Several people with celebrity status have died to date in the pandemic, but most of them were in the fringe area of fame and I didn't know who they were, which doesn't mean anything one way or another  I did know who Prine was.

Prine was in the category of individuals with imperiled health.  He'd twice battled cancer, the second time lung cancer in 2013.

Amazon announced that it was suspending a delivery service that competed with other carriers, including UPS, FedEx and the United States Post Office, effective in June.  The huge company has been struggling with delivery issues as the nation went into lock down and it will instead be focusing on straightening out its backlog.  The news should help the USPS which is nearly out of money at the present time and which has been struggling with lost revenue due to competition for years.

April 8, 2020

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Not really meant to be amusing here, one thing that has happened in the past few days is that Wyoming has revived the old rallying cry of "Greenie Go Home", this time due to the pandemic.  Or, more accurately, Greenie Stay Home.

Long residents, and certainly natives, of this state have long had sort of a love hate relationship with Colorado, with us hating more of what is and has become Colorado than loving it, and with Coloradans feeling free to over love and take the best of what is Wyoming.  The exchange is tolerated as we have to, of course, and because of Greenie Bucks.  And the tension has become much reduced over the years.  I no longer see, for example, "Live in Colorado, Fish in Colorado" bumper stickers anymore (I also don't see "Colorado Native" ones anymore either).

The virus, however, has brought back the old tensions, as stressful times will do.  It showed up on Facebook first with those with a presence in Laramie County noting all the road traffic going up into Wyoming.  In fairness, some of that traffic is likely from Wyoming state government employees who are deemed necessary to their jobs who are reporting to work in Wyoming but who live in Colorado. But others are people who figure that if they aren't working, and they need to isolate, why not isolate in Wyoming and go fishing?

Well, because right now we're nervous about having you here is the answer and Governor Gordon reminded such folks that they've been ordered to quarantine for fourteen days upon arrival.  I suspect that isn't a difficult requirement for people who are pulling into fishing spots as they'll regarded themselves as isolated in that fashion.

Wyoming has fully joined the "Howl for . . . " movement, in which at 8 p.m. people go out and howl in celebration, somehow, of health care workers.  Apparently 8:00 marks their shift change.

In the UK people go out and clap, which makes more sense to me.  Of course, it'd be hard to hear in Wyoming given the distance, but the howling is being done in other locations as well, such as Colorado.  It's nice that people are acknowledging health care workers, but the howling motif is a bit confusing in this regard.

In news from other areas, the contra voice heard somewhat here of "get back to normal" is getting a test. . . in Sweden.

There have been some contrary voices here in the U.S.  One, for example, was in an op ed in the New York Times.  But by and large the US, lead by the states, has gone into shelter in place quarantines.  Only nine states, the last time I looked, were outside of them, and at least one of them, Wyoming, had a set or county restrictions and statewide restrictions that meant, in practical terms, it had ordered a shelter in place that was tailored for its locality (although that received some criticism from a former Wyoming Gubernatorial candidate who argued that at least as of the expiration of the current restrictions, things need to ease up.

Danse Macabre, 1493.

Sweden didn't lighten up, at least not much, and hasn't banned gatherings and the like. Apparently, to the extent that people are engaging in "social distancing", they're just doing it on their own.  The government argued that quarantines would prove counter productive, as sooner or later people would ignore them.

Well, that doesn't seem to actually be the case so far.  In the US people are largely observing them even though the US is the last society on earth that I thought would.  And Sweden's death rate due to COVID 19 is, so far, higher than the United States on a per capita basis.

So that experiment appears to be happening.

April 9, 2020
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Governor Gordon requested a Federal disaster declaration for Wyoming. The Governor’s press release on the request stated.

Gov. Gordon requests federal disaster declaration for Wyoming  

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has submitted a request to President Trump asking for a major disaster declaration for Wyoming. The declaration would allow all 23 of Wyoming’s counties and the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes to access funding and services for crucial assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic.  

“Though Wyoming has not reached the dire situations of some states, this declaration will help us to prepare and mobilize resources when we need them,” Governor Gordon said. “I look forward to a swift response to our request from the federal government.” 

The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act allows states to request a Public Assistance and Individual Assistance Disaster Declaration to respond to incidents that exceed capabilities of a state to respond effectively.  

The declaration provides Wyoming the opportunity to access assistance from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for construction of temporary medical facilities, if needed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is reviewing sites in Wyoming to identify extra space for overflow patients and healthcare workers should it be needed.  

“This requested declaration will help ensure Wyoming gains access to critical assistance as we continue our mission to respond to this pandemic,” Wyoming Office of Homeland Security Director Lynn Budd said. “Providing individual assistance programs will be vital to help our residents recover from this crisis.” 

The declaration also allows the state to receive additional federal resources and services for Wyoming residents, including crisis counseling, disaster unemployment assistance, legal services, disaster case management and Small Business Administration disaster assistance.  

As of April 9, Wyoming has 230 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 18 counties.

On the same day, he proclaimed Good Friday, April 10, a Day of Prayer.

Governor Gordon proclaims April 10 Day of Prayer  

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon will sign a proclamation tomorrow declaring Friday, April 10, 2020 a Day of Prayer in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The day of prayer is cross-denominational with the intent to unify people of many faiths during the crisis. 

“Across all faiths and beliefs, we can all come together at this time of year to find a sense of peace and purpose,” Governor Gordon said. “I invite our leaders and citizens to pray that the present pandemic may be controlled, caregivers protected, our soldiers and their families watched over, the economy strengthened and life normalized.” 

April 10 is Good Friday and is observed by many denominations as a day of prayer and fasting. Joining the Governor in this effort is the National Association of Evangelicals and the The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. People of all faiths are welcome to participate. 

In Casper, on the same day, a small group of libertarian protesters gathered in Pioneer Park to protest the Governor’s emergency orders and seeking to have them lifted as being harmful to business.  The National Outdoor Leadership School in Lander also announced layoffs given the COVID 19 Pandemic and its impact on their school.

April 10, 2020

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Meanwhile, in Teton County, 2000 people signed a petition asking Governor Gordon to make the present order regarding activities and the like stricter.

April 10, 2020, part two.
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The Tribune reports that Wyoming Governor Gordon received a comment of some sort for Rachel Maddow and indeed a comment from Maddow, simply noting that Governor Gordon hasn't ordered a shelter in place in Wyoming, is on her Twitter feed.

Probably hardly worth noting, but we will nonetheless, Governor can't issue any quarantine orders in Wyoming at all.  Under Wyoming's law, the senior health officer for the state, not the Governor, as that sole and exclusive authority.

Be that as it may, and much more worth noting, the Tribune has an article in today featuring a chart in which they look at the restrictions of all the neighboring states.  It's really a revelation.  Wyoming's existing orders are stricter in some instances than those of the neighboring states with "shelter in place" orders.  Indeed, no two states are the same and some of the things allowed in shelter in place states aren't allowed here under the existing order.

Utah apparently has no order at all and everything is open save for things that shut down voluntarily.  That's interesting in that at least the Catholic Diocese of Salt Lake halted Public Mass and Confession prior to Wyoming's Diocese of Cheyenne.  I knew that, but I assumed that was because of a state order.  It wasn't.

Which brings about the point that the Governor has, which is that Wyoming's order may not be a shelter in place order, but it's so extensive that there's really not much else Wyoming could do.  A lot of Wyoming's major industries are in the critical category and those that aren't are already under some sort of order.  An order could go a little further, but how much further we can really go, from now until the end of the month, is pretty debatable.

On other matters, for the first time in U.S. history every state has been declared to be a disaster area.

In Europe, the Netherlands have noticed a spike in reported deaths.

This is interesting for a couple of reasons, one being that it seems to suggest that a lot of cases just aren't being reported  It isn't that they've had a spike in Coronavirus related deaths, just deaths.  As that is odd, the suggestion is that they have a fair number of unreported cases.

Also interesting is that the Netherlands took an approach much like that urged by Dr. Katz in his New York Times op ed.  I.e., protect the vulnerable and go for herd immunity for everyone else.  They had to change their approach due to Dutch civil disobedience as the Dutch listened instead to the recommendations of European doctors and imposed self isolation on themselves, after which the Dutch government followed the views of their citizens.  The spike death level might seem to suggest that the people got it right.

This is of note here as, in spite of what some feel that the Governor should do, Wyomingites basically have followed the national advice to a large degree.  Employers have closed businesses that weren't ordered to be closed.  People are staying home.  While I've heard people say things like "it looks like people are still out", many more are shocked by how few people actually are out and how many things have closed.

April 12, 2020

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China disclosed 97 new Coronavirus cases on Sunday, over half of which were Chinese nationals who arrived on Russian flight to Shanghai on April 10.

Obviously, there's a host of conclusions that can be drawn from that.

April 13, 2020

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Wyoming had its first death due to the Coronavirus yesterday.  The victim of the disease is reported as an elderly Johnson County man who had imperilled health.

On the same day the news featured reports of Dr. Fauci praising Governor Gordon's approach to the virus, which has been nearly as strict as the quarantine approach taken by most other states.

President Trump declared yesterday that he has the authority to override those state orders, which he absolutely does not.  Indeed, one thing the COVID 19 pandemic has made clear is the amount of authority individual states retain in the face of a disaster, and it's very large.  Quarantine efforts have been completely lead by the states and imposed by them.  The Oval Office can do nothing about that.

One state that didn't go into quarantine with a stay at home order has been South Dakota which now has a hot spot of the disease in Rapid City.  300 cases are tied to a Smithfield pork processing plant.  This puts a new wrinkle in Wyoming's approach as Rapid City borders Wyoming and we now have two states, Colorado and South Dakota, with large scale outbreaks.

Also yesterday, a sailor from the USS Roosevelt died of the disease. The Roosevelt has been tied up in a drama surrounding its now relieved captain that will be the topic of a thread here, if I get around to it.

Finally, and related to the item immediately above, North Korea fired anti shipping missiles into the sea yesterday.  The entire pandemic has to be aggravating to Kim Jong Un, the Stalinist leader of the country, who is getting very little media attention now days.

April 14, 2020

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President Trump indicated that the United States was going to defund the World Health Organization in retaliation for the WHO covering up, in his view, the emerging epidemic, when it was just that, in China.  17% of the organization's budget is provided by the US.

This brought a storm of protests but also some surprisingly sympathetic treatment from commentators on NPR.  The organization, which uses the correct snake on a stick symbol for medicine as opposed to the inaccurate one used in the U.S., is a branch of the United Nations and therefore has always been subject to some dislike in conservative circles in the U.S.  That notwithstanding, the move has been largely condemned and in particular condemned for coming at the time at which it is.

Perhaps ironically, the standard for some medical things is set by the WHO and incorporated by reference by branches of the U.S. government.  That's unrelated to this, of course, but it is a bit ironic.

My suspicion is that this won't actually be carried out.

Closer to home, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department announced it was halting the sale of short term out of state fishing licenses.  It's announcement stated:

CHEYENNE - The Wyoming Game and Fish Department is suspending the sale of nonresident daily and five-day fishing licenses, effective immediately. This suspension is due to the need to ensure individuals coming into Wyoming for a non-work related purpose comply with Governor Gordon’s April 3, 2020 Directive requiring a fourteen day quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic. Individuals are responsible for complying with all state and local orders.

While Coloradans aren't mentioned by name in the announcement, they've been getting mentioned by name in complaints from Laramie County residents and even the Governor.  Wyoming gets a lot of Colorado fisherman up on weekends and even on weekdays as it is, often filling up the good camping spots at popular trophy fishing locations.  Some seem to have decided to spend their state's "shelter in place" requirements up in Wyoming at those locations, for which they really can't be blamed, but which is impacting Wyoming in regard to the virus.  COVID 19 in Laramie County has been specifically tied to Coloradans.

April 16, 2020
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The President announced his three part program for opening up the economy again.  The entire plan may be read here:

Opening Up America Again

Based upon what's being heard in the news, while President Trump conceded that its really state governors that call the shots on reopening, it is going to start around May 1 for much of the country.

It has started in Europe.  Spain, which was hard hit, has begun to ease back on its restrictions.  France, however, has taken the opposite approach and just extended the length of theirs.

Wyoming is working on a plan for its transition back to open, but the Governor's office isn't indicating when that plan will go into effect, and instead is emphasizing that it will be data driven.

In signs that the public may be doing what we wondered if it might, beginning to take science seriously again, people are going after Oprah Winfrey for comments made by "Dr. Phil" and "Dr. Oz".

I know very little about Dr. Phil and I don't care to know much.  I personally can't stand Dr. Oz and can't grasp why people listen to him other than that they also listen to Oprah Winfrey, who kept promising to retire and never did.

Winfrey is the very emblem of the American secular religion of all values are equal and all nice information that you want to believe is good for you.  She's one of the things that's wrong with American society today and if she's getting heat for boosting bull crap that's circulating in the media, well good.  It's very long overdue.

Anyhow, I don't actually know what either figure stated, but whatever it was, and it may not have been on her show (which weirdly never went away), but some have really come after her.  Jonah Goldberg, a Conservative columnist, wrote regarding her on Twitter:

It's almost like Oprah's major contributions to medical discourse are a total disaster.

Much of the commentary is in the nature of a Twitter storm, which therefore means that it doesn't mean much.  But this is an interesting development.

April 18, 2020

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April 24, 2020

Yesterday, Wyoming's Governor Gordon announced that next week the state was going to modify its current restrictions on businesses operating as part of the stepped process to reopen the economy.  What these steps will be is not entirely clear, but it appears that gyms, barber shops and beauty salons will be allowed to reopen, but no doubt with certain restrictions.  The modified orders will be issued next week.

As Wyoming is stepping towards reopening some other states are as well, with some taking much larger steps.  Georgia in particular seems to be, which is meeting with a lot of protests one way or another.  In contrast, Illinois has extended its shelter in place order to May 30.

The progress of the disease continues to vary in different localities.  California sustained its largest death toll yesterday.  Other states seem to have plateaued.

Regarding California, one of the states to be impacted very early on, it's now known that it had deaths in early February.  Because of the newness of the disease at the time, it wasn't then detected but subsequent autopsies have shown Coronavirus to be the cause.  That suggests that the virus was in the US earlier than previously supposed.

For that matter, the Chinese are now reporting that they can track SARS-CoV-2, the actual name of the disease back now to a November 17, 2019 infection of a 55 year old resident of Hubei province, the same province that Wuhan is located in. The man was not, however, a resident of Wuhan although it appears that he may have traveled there.

The Chinese haven't confirmed this and right now they aren't claiming that he's "patient zero". Earlier an elderly man from Wuhan was so identified but this news pushes the date back by two weeks and causes real uncertainty in the story of when the virus first showed up.

A person could reasonably state, "so what", but it does actually make a difference in what the world is now experiencing. There's a vast amount that we don't know about the virus and one of those uncertainties is the overall infection rate combined with the asymptomatic infection rate.  Testing in New York, which may or may not be accurate, has suggested that about 14% of New Yorkers have had the virus, many of whom have shown no symptoms.  Some seemed to think that infection rate surprisingly low but it strikes me as the opposite.

One of the reasons that matters is that at some point humans will reach the herd immunity rate with the disease, but we don't know when that is.  For some diseases that rate is as low as 40%, but for most its 80% or more.  We're nowhere near either of those rates, but if it's 80% we're not only a long ways away, but we're going to have to hope for a successful vaccine to be developed in order to achieve it, as the only other way we'll achieve it, and we will, will be after that number of people have had the disease.

Anyhow, the fact that it now appears that the disease appeared weeks earlier than we thought cast a lot of doubt on when the infection first showed up in other places and how long it operated in the population before people were aware of what it was.  It's almost certain that in some places people simply thought they had the flu or a severe cold and had SARS-CoV-2. But if that's the case, then then question is why it didn't result in an outbreak of sudden severity as it did in Wuhan, and for that matter, how was it that there was at a least a lingering bit of time in China before that occured?

On herd immunity and the progress of the disease, one of the things we're now seeing is the sort of odd reveling in grim predictions, which is sort of a counter reaction to the "it's all a fake" sort of reaction that some people had earlier.

One of the positives, if you can call it that, of the pandemic is that suddenly, as earlier noted, science is really back in.  Lots of early claims that the disease wasn't real have evaporated but we now see some who are taking unscientific positions in the name of science.

Once claim is that the virus "reappears".  There's no evidence for that whatsoever.  To the extent that tests might support that suggestion, what that means is that the infection lingers longer than the symptoms do.  That's hardly novel.

Another big one we're seeing a lot of now is that "it'll be back in the Fall".  It might, but that has to do with herd immunity again. The dire suggestions that it'll return year after year as a massive killer are just wrong.

That doesn't mean it won't return in the Fall.  It very well might and, ironically, because of the "flattening the curve" approach that's been adopted.  Proponents of doing little noted that right from the onset and took the position that there was no point in flattening the curve and we'd be better off just rocketing towards herd immunity.  Critics of that approach justifiably noted that this threatened to overwhelm the medical infrastructure but the truth is that we have not come so far to that occurring.  Now at least part of the reason that we haven't had that occur is because we flattened the curve.  And that may indeed have been the absolutely correct thing to do.  Irrespective of that, the return of SARS-CoV-2, if it occurs, will be because of that, we knew that all along, and it won't happen year after year.  We have every reason to believe that by 2021 we'll have a vaccine.

Truth be known, we'll know a lot more about vaccines, and we already know a lot, by that time.  There's already been some curious lines drawn between old vaccines and the current disease which may be real dead ends.  Note that these are vaccines, not treatment for vaccines.  One old TB vaccine, for example, was being looked at as it was thought that it might offer come assistance with this disease.

While I've noted it before, on vaccines, one of the other real positives of the pandemic, if it can be called that, is that its shut up the entire anti vaxer movement, hopefully forever.  Hopefully this will spread to the other baloney anti scientific stuff that Americans have been buying up from purveyors of bogosity in increasing amounts in recent years.  Americans have always been prey to the purchase of snake oil, but in recent years it's become really over the top. The pandemic seems to have brought a screeching halt to that.

Indeed, at least in my case, it's brought an end to the spam emails of that type.  For a long time a business email of my mine has been constantly hit with the most absurd emails purveying all sorts of snake oil bogosity.  It's not just me a sit seems that everyone where I work gets the same set of bogus emails every day.  We've noted it from time to time and compared notes, and they're uniform.  One set of them is a collection that promises you can eat this and that and grow thin.  One in particular is some sort of ice cream you can buy from the hawker and you'll grown thin, it claims.

Bulls***

Anyhow, there's that set, and one set that claims ancient secret lost remedies, one set that claims shocking prophecies always involving Donald Trump and the Pope, and another that offers mail order brides from Russia or Asia.  Now all of those are gone, and I'm glad to see them gone.  I hope they never return.

In their place are constant ones for thermometers.

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April 27, 2020

Meet the Press had a genuinely scary interview with a Dr. Michael Osterholm over the weekend.

Some places in the U.S. are in the process of opening back up and there's sort of a sense of "we're through the worst of this", which most of us hope and pray is true.  Dr. Osterholm's views, however, weren't at all comforting.  In his interview, he states:

Well, first of all, let's just take the numbers. At most, 5-15% of the United States has been infected to date. With all the experience we have had so far, this virus is going to keep transmitting. It's going to keep trying to find humans to do what it does until we get at least 60% or 70% of the people infected. That is what it will take to get herd immunity. You know, Chuck, we are in the very earliest days of this situation right now. You know, if I could just briefly say one story here. Right after 9/11, I spent a number of days up at your studios doing filing around the issue of what was happening. The predecessor here, the late Tim Russert, used to say to me all the time, "Hi, Doc. How're you doing? Is the big one here yet?" And I would always say, "No, Tim, it is not." If he asked me today, "Is the big one here? Is it coming?" I would say, "Tim, this is the big one." And it is going to be here for the next 16 to 18 months. And people do not get that yet. We are just on the very first stages. When I hear New York talking about the fact they are down the backside of the mountain, I know they have been through hell. And that is an important statement. But they have to understand that’s not the mountain. That is the foothills. They have mountains to go yet. We have a lot of people to get infected before this is over.

In other words, Dr. Osterholm's view is that this is going to be with us until we get herd immunity, one way or another.  Elaborating on how that will occur, he stated:

Well, herd immunity is clearly going to happen if we do not have a vaccine. I do think that we have a better chance of a vaccine than some. The statement that came out yesterday from the World Health Organization suggesting there may not be immunity was misinterpreted to mean that we do not have evidence today that you are protected from humans. But we have actually animal model data, monkeys that have been infected intentionally and then rechallenged, that were protected. We have a new study on Friday that said vaccine protected them. So I think we are going to have it. I just do not think it is going to be soon. And we are on virus time right now, not human time. And so what we can get done in the next 16 to 18 months, that is great. But if we do not, we will not have a vaccine in time to protect most of the people in the world.

Herd immunity sans vaccine took a long time with the 18/19 flu, as a recent item posted here provided evidence of.  That pandemic had two waves, something that's being noted a lot now days, and for the most part it ended in 1919 for reasons still not completely understood  Maybe we had achieved herd immunity, or maybe it had evolved into a less lethal strain, something common with flu strains.  Indeed, it's already been noted that SARS-CoV-2 had thirty strains and some of them are less severe than others, so perhaps it works the same way.  Let's hope so.  In terms of evolutionary biology, that actually is the best genetic strategy for it.

Anyhow, this seems to run counter to what various governmental bodies are expecting, so we'll see how that works.  New Zealand had declared that it's completely contained the disease and basically eliminated it Sweden, whose approach was much less restrictive than other countries, has been taking a lot of heat but now claims it was right in its approach.  We aren't hearing much from China, the point of origin, right now, so perhaps its severely restrictive approach worked.  Spain is opening back up.

Or, perhaps in a heavily globalized economy, it'll all get rolling again. The 1918/19 flu did in a much less globalized era.

Also on Meet The Press the viewers were presented with another of a cumulative set of increasing reasons why Chuck Todd ought to be sent back down to the minors, this time in regard to an interview of Dr. Deborah Birx.  Birx is the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force and in that role she found herself in the uncomfortable role of having to address comments recently made by President Trump which have been baffling to say the least and which are noted below.  One of the things that she did, however, was to give a pretty good scientific explanation on the nature of testing for the virus, stating that mass testing would require a breakthrough in RNA type testing.  This is simply a scientific fact but it gave Todd what he thought was ammo of some sort leading a listener to the conclusion that Todd probably didn't really grasp what he was saying.  Birx's comment wasn't political in any fashion and it frankly runs counter to what the White House has been saying on testing, which may be why Todd tried to run with it a little later in the show.

That came up when he was discussing the situation with invited panelist Dr. Vin Gupta, who was very critical up to that point of the Trump Administration's medical approach.  Todd was questioning Dr. Gupta on whether, essentially, Dr. Birx was having to compromise herself in order to take the company line, more or less, in the Administration, and Dr. Gupta was critical of her more or less giving favorable treatment to a single study that suggested that sunlight may play a role in curing the disease.  Sensing his moment Todd then went on:

I want to stay with you here a second, Dr. Gupta, and ask you about the testing comments that she made. That really struck me as one of the headlines out of the interview, when she basically acknowledged-- "acknowledge" may be the wrong word because there may be disputes about this. But essentially saying, "We're not going to be able to ramp up testing under the current situation." Do you concur with her on that? Or do you think they're just trying to come up with an explanation to follow the policy the president wants?

Not too surprisingly, as he is a physician, Gupta went on to indicate his agreement with Birx on the testing:

I think she's right actually. We need outside-the-box thinking. And so she's spot on. Under the current situation, Dr. Osterholm beautifully laid it out. That right now, every new technology that the FDA's putting out there largely is constrained by the same supply chain bottleneck that, Chuck, you and I have talked endlessly about: swabs, reagents. He just said it. He just laid it out. That's why we need more of a focus on interesting, new, creative, outside-the-box thinking, innovations like the Rutgers scientists on saliva. By definition, circumnavigating these supply chain bottlenecks. You spit in a tube. Potentially you can mail it to a lab if you do it at home. That's not that far off. So right now under the way we're thinking about it, the inside-the-box, constrained thinking, yes, I think she's correct.

I didn't see the show, but listened to it, as always, but on audio at least there was a noticeable pause following Todd's statement, followed by Todd changing topics and panelist and moving on to the economy.

This past week Trump certainly left himself open to criticism with his off the cuff comments on the disease, and its not surprising at all that the news shows (and I haven't gotten to This Week yet) would have a lot to discuss and criticize in this area.  But Todd has really gone off the rails and isn't even ballpark close to objective anymore.  It's really time for him to go.

In other news, President Trump has reportedly cancelled his daily briefings on the disease.

The briefings were becoming fodder for criticism as he sometimes countered his own medical experts and then offered off the cuff comments on medical matters that were often extremely ill informed. This capped off with a comment that seems to have tried to hope for a "miracle cure" type solution but which made a terribly poor analogy to cleaners which, if taken literally, would have been lethal  I haven't listened to the transcript of those comments as I generally don't listen to day by day press briefings, so I only know a snippet of what was said, but it is this sort of thing which has lead Trump's advisor to try to reign him in forever, and given that there has been a recent death that seems to have been attributable to such an off the cuff remark his handlers apparently felt that enough was enough and have gotten through to him.  After that, his advisors seemed to have gotten his attention and he's reportedly decided to focus on the economy on his upcoming statements.
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April 28, 2020

A few states are now beginning to partially reopen, although a person needs to be careful about what assuming that means.  Indeed, it's interesting that Wyoming, which people have been criticized for being not closed, is listed as fully having restrictions in place by the New York Times.

States that are easing up on some restrictions, which actually doesn't mean lifting all restrictions, are, as of right now:

Alaska, which has had a shelter in place order since March 28.  It's partial reopening is subject to strict limitations.

Colorado, which had a stay at home order in place allowed it to expire of April 26 and has a lesser set of restrictions now in place.

Georgia, which will have its shelter in place order expire on April 30.  It's reopening has been controversial but is subject to restrictions.

Minnesota, which will have its shelter in place order expire on May 3 is allowing for a partial reopening of the economy.

Mississippi, which had its shelter in place order expire yesterday, will allow some businesses to reopen.

Montana, which had its shelter in place order expire on the 26th, allowed some businesses to reopen and allowed churches to reopen.  Bars and restaurants will reopen on May 4.

Oklahoma, which never had shelter in place but restrictions, lifted restrictions on some businesses on April 24 and about everything else appears to be reset to open, with restrictions, on May 1.

South Carolina, which had a shelter in place order in effect since April 7, reopened part of its economy with restrictions on April 20.

Tennessee, which has a shelter in place order expiring on April 30, allowed restaurants to reopen on April 27 and businesses with restrictions are to follow.

Texas, which has had a shelter in place order in effect is allowing for a partial reopening of its economy later this week.

Wyoming, which never had a shelter in place order in effect but a stout set of restrictions, is allowing some businesses that were closed to reopen with restrictions.

There's an element of controversy everywhere things are opening back up, but there's also been controversy in keeping things locked down.  It's widely acknowledged that the economy can't be closed forever and while those urging it closed for longer periods of time, where they are, definitely have a humanitarian concern, there's been no real answer on how long the economy can really be suspended.

On that, on Meet the Press, panelist openly debated putting the entire American working population on the government payroll temporarily, a truly stunning proposition that never would have been considered prior to this event.
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April 28, part two.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEApril 28, 2020CONTACT: Michael Pearlman, Communications Director Michael.Pearlman@wyo.gov

Governor Gordon authorizes re-opening of gyms, personal care servicesunder new public health orders
Child care providers may also re-open to children of non-essential personnel
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has announced that new public health orders effective May 1 will allow gyms, barber shops, hair salons and other personal care services to reopen under specific operating conditions designed to minimize public health risk from COVID-19. Other parts of the phased approach involve easing restrictions on day cares and issuing guidance to hospitals allowing them to resume elective surgeries.

“These new orders start our process of getting this part of Wyoming’s economy up and running again,” Governor Gordon said. “We have asked Wyoming citizens to make sacrifices over the past five weeks and they have responded. I want to thank these businesses for playing such an important role in our initial battle with COVID-19. Easing the restrictions on these businesses at this time is prudent and gets us one step closer to a return to normal.”

Another part of this phase allows some additional localized approaches to further easing restrictions based on local expertise and health data.

“We all recognize that the virus has had severe impacts in some Wyoming communities, while other towns and counties have been spared,” Governor Gordon said. “This plan takes into account the continued safety of our citizens and establishes a process to consider some case-by-case exceptions to state health orders when appropriate. It is important that we do not surrender the ground we have taken and that we extend our gains against this virus.”

Under modified order Number 1, gyms will be permitted to open on May 1 by adhering to public health guidelines outlined in the new order. These include limits on the number of patrons in the facility, a requirement that staff wear face coverings, and the closure of locker rooms. Gyms are also prohibited from offering one-on-one personal training and group classes. This order is also modified to allow child care centers and home day cares to reopen or continue to operate under specific conditions and precautions. These include limiting groups of people to fewer than 10 per room and implementing screening and cleaning protocols.

Under modified order Number 3, nail and hair salons, barber shops; cosmetology, electrology, and esthetic services; massage therapy services; and tattoo, body art and piercing shops may also open in a limited capacity on May 1 under certain conditions. These include operational requirements limiting the number of patrons, screening of patrons and staff for symptoms of illness or exposure to a person with COVID-19, requiring patrons and staff to wear face coverings and eliminating waiting areas.

No business closed through the public health orders is required to open on May 1. Businesses that choose to stay closed are still eligible for assistance from Small Business Administration (SBA) programs.The Department of Health has also issued updated guidance to hospitals and health care providers outlining how they can resume elective surgeries. That is effective immediately. Public health order Number 2 limiting public gatherings to 10 persons or fewer has been extended through May 15. The Governor’s directive requiring any individual coming to Wyoming to self-quarantine for 14 days remains in place through April 30. An extension to the directive is currently under review, with a decision expected tomorrow.
All three statewide orders have a provision allowing county health officers to submit requests for countywide variances from those orders if the public health conditions in the county warrant the change. The goal is to provide a measure of flexibility in recognition of the fact that public health conditions can vary greatly from county to county in Wyoming.

The Wyoming Business Council will host a series of webinars beginning tomorrow, April 29, to provide information and guidance for businesses eligible for reopening under the new orders. To register, visit https://wyomingbusiness.org/transition.

Copies of all three orders are attached to this release and are linked above.

--END--· ThirdContinuation_Order3.pdf· Dashboard_04282020 (1).pdf· Third Continuation_Order1.pdf· Third Continuation_Order2.pdf

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April 30, 2020

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEApril 29, 2020CONTACT: Michael Pearlman, Communications Director Michael.Pearlman@wyo.gov 

Governor Gordon extends 14-day quarantine directive until May 8, announces campground openings 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has extended through May 8 his directive requiring any individual coming to Wyoming from another state or country for a non-work-related purpose to immediately self-quarantine for 14 days. The Governor anticipates allowing the directive to expire at that time, public health conditions permitting. 

Governor Gordon’s decision to let the directive expire May 8 was done after speaking with county commissioners throughout the state and in recognition of existing guidance in place in neighboring states. He noted that Colorado continues to discourage non-essential travel and Montana’s 14-day self-quarantine directive remains in place. 

Governor Gordon has also announced that camping at Wyoming State Parks will begin to open on May 15 for Wyoming residents. Camping will be by reservation only. Additional details on modified operations at Wyoming State Parks will be announced tomorrow.The new directive is attached and can be found here.Continuation of Self-Quarantine Directive.pdf

In other news, California closed its beaches.

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May 2, 2020

Movie art director Matteo De Cosmo died at age 52 of the virus.

Celebrity celebrity, Madonna reported that she had tested positive for having had, and then recovered from, the virus.

California's Madoc County defied the orders of the State of California and ceased enforcing the State's quarantine orders and "reopened" on May 1. The county of 5,000 residents has had no reported Coronavirus incidents.

New Mexico extended its stay at home order and ordered roads into hard hit Gallup closed.

The White House prohibited Dr. Fauci from testifying in front of the House of Representatives on May 6 but announced it was allowing him to testify in front of the Senate on May 12.

The Catholic Diocese of Cheyenne announced its closure of Public Masses would continue through May 15 after which the churches would start to reopen for Mass on a modified basis.

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May 5, 2020

Lots of states are beginning to "open up" with a lot of that opening up being fairly controversial as well.  Locally, the state had eased up on some restrictions starting this week.

I noted the item from the Catholic Diocese of Cheyenne above, here's its actual letter:

Statement from Bishop Steven Biegler, Roman Catholic Diocese of Cheyenne 

These past weeks since COVID-19 descended upon us have been difficult, and the suspension of public Masses has been deeply painful. As Governor Gordon lifts restrictions on some businesses, it is natural for Catholics to have a sense of hope that we can return to a somewhat normal parish life. Nonetheless, the need to protect the elderly and those with underlying conditions continues to be a high priority. Keeping in mind that numerous parishioners, as well as many priests, are at-risk for serious health complications if they contracted COVID-19, the Diocese of Cheyenne will continue to suspend public Masses.  

Beginning May 1, the Sacrament of Reconciliation will be celebrated by appointment using six feet of distance and masks, and the Anointing of the Sick will be celebrated for serious illness or pending surgery.  

The Diocese of Cheyenne is making tentative plans to resume public Masses, Baptisms, Matrimony and funerals for a maximum of ten (10) people on May 15, then on June 1 to expand participation based on the size of the church, while observing six feet of distance between individuals or households. These plans are subject to change.  

Re-opening the churches for public Masses will happen in phases, with health guidelines to follow for the protection of the common good and to minimize the continued spread of COVID-19. The obligatory guidelines include limited attendance, physical distancing and wearing masks. Because there still is a health risk for those who attend any public gathering, the general dispensation from the Sunday obligation will remain in effect.  

As we move forward, we will continue to follow state guidelines and adjust as needed. While we move through incremental steps through the three phases of reopening, I ask for your patience and prayers. Peace in Christ,

On other topics, quite a few counties in Wyoming have sought exemptions from some restrictions and are receiving them.  Teton County imposed tighter restrictions than the state had imposed and the state approved that.

Nationally, the Administration is asserting that the Chinese bear fault for the Pandemic.  Secretary Pompeo stated on This Week that the virus is natural, i.e., not man made, which reflects the scientific consensus but he also claimed that it had escaped a Chinese lab.  The Administration is also asserting that the Chinese acted to cover up the developing epidemic in their country so that they could hoard supplies for their own people.

I'm skeptical of the Chinese lab escape thesis, which seems unlikely to me.  I don't doubt that the Chinese government kept the outbreak secret, however, as that's what governments like that do about everything.

Meanwhile there's been some progress on anti virals to address SARS-CoV-2 as well as some progress towards a vaccine.  My suspicion is that this will develop much more quickly than we suppose.  Likewise, the claims of massive deaths breaking out in June due to reopenings strike me as likely overblown.

On COVID related economic news, Forbes is reporting that we're now at the point where some workers who are on the lower end of the economic scale, depending upon where they live, are making more money not working than they did working.  Nobody is to blame for this but this was nearly inevitable and with the country stretching into the third month of closures of various types, the next inevitable is happening.  Some of those workers are making the logical economic decision of choosing to stay home.

Indeed, why wouldn't you?  It's clearly lower risk and, for them, more financially prudent.

This creates an odd economic effect, however, in that if those workers choose not to come back to work, their employers stand a good chance of failing.  A lot of employees in that category have low employer loyalty for obvious reasons and will soon choose simply to never come back to their former employer, but many of those employers may soon be gone.

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May 8, 2020

The Army had announced that having had SARS-CoV-2, i.e., COVID-19, bars enlistment into the U.S. Army.

This is unlikely to be a long term thing, but is based on the lasting effect of the disease being presently unknown. Once they are, the Army will reassess.

Locally, so many things are now opening back up its impossible to keep track of it. A series of evolving orders is bringing closures of various types to an end, but with restrictions.  Restaurants in Natrona County may now reopen indoors, but churches interestingly remain subject to the public gathering limit, the state being unwilling to reconsider that for the county.

Statewide, a group of legislators have sent the Governor a letter complaining about his closure orders, even though the state never shut down completely and many of the closures were voluntary.

Those legislators will be back in session in Cheyenne on May 15 for a two day special legislative session concerning spending the money sent to Wyoming by the Federal government.
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May 9, 2020

Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, former Democratic candidates and sitting U.S. Senators, have proposed a bill to pay Americans $2,000/month until the current crisis ends.  Such a move would really be a leap into uncharted waters and very well could have the practical impact of destroying the economy with some permanence.  The move pushes the credibility gap on the American monetary system dangerously close the monopoly money level, something that at least Sanders, who never had a firm grasp of where money comes from, has always been comfortable with.

The bill is unlikely to pass but it does serve to illustrate something that's already been noted in the economic press.  Some lower wage earners are actually better off not returning to work as long as crisis related assistance continues to pay off. For those individuals, a certain percentage of them are making rational choices in electing not to return to work. At the $2,000/month level many more would, making the failure of small businesses that depend on the same workers all the more problematic.

This is occurring just as a lot of the states are starting to open back up, including Wyoming which is undergoing a dual economic crisis, only one of which is COVID 19 related.  Restaurants opened in Natrona County yesterday.  The question is if Americans will fully return to their prior dining out customs at the same level they formerly had, something we explored in an entry from yesterday that became one of the most popular threads of this past week in a single day.  It appears likely that churches may open state wide next week.  It'll be interesting to see how churches respond to that when it occurs. Some, maybe most, will no doubt fully reopen and charge ahead.  Others, with large statewide structures and large congregations may react more slowly and keep some restrictions and existing closures in place.

Setting up a contest between sovereigns, South Dakota has ordered Sioux tribes to take down checkpoints in South Dakota within 48 hours.

This is a legally questionable move.  Indian Tribes are sovereigns within their territory and two of the Sioux tribes with lands in South Dakota have issued shelter in place orders, just as the tribes have on Wyoming's Wind River Reservation.  South Dakota never issued such an order and was among the states with the least restrictive provisions.

Wyoming has not interfered with the Wind River Reservation's provisions in any fashion, although Wind River hasn't gone as far as the Sioux in South Dakota apparently have.  At any rate, the legal ability of the state to order the tribe to do something of this type is really questionable and ill advised.

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May 10, 2020

South Korea is has closed bars and clubs in Seoul after infections of the virus rose.

South Korea's actions in containing the virus have been largely successful, but 50 new infections spiked after a 29 year old man infected with the virus went clubbing.

China is experiencing a spike in Shulan City in north eastern China. the city, located directly north of North Korea, has been closed by the Chinese.  The Chinese have also offered to help fight the infection in North Korea, about which the rest of the world doesn't know much.

None of this, of course, is really good news.

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May 13, 2020

In the category of not really good news, Meet The Press had its expert physician, Dr. Michael Osterholm, back on last Sunday who once again declared that it was inevitable that the Coronavirus would infect 70% of the human population, a grim assessment.  He basically holds out no hope for a vaccine being developed in sufficient time to prevent that from occurring.

The other guests, including one working on a vaccine and one working on a medication that has, in part, the effect of a vaccine on a temporary basis where more optimistic.  The latter hoped to have the medication fielded by next Fall. The doctor who was working on a vaccine suggested that next Fall might be possible but reserved declaring that, if all goes well, it would be widely available by that time.

Everyone seemed to think a resurgence of the disease, such as was the case with the 1918 Influenza pandemic, is inevitable.  Those working on medications and vaccines hope to have that ready in sufficient time so as to be able to prevent that from occurring.

In Fremont County the County Attorney has declared in a statement that his office will not enforce parts of the state's orders regarding the virus citing the Constitution as the basis for his actions.

Fremont County is one of the hardest hit counties in Wyoming by appearances, but a local official there has declared that this is a statistical appearance as the county has been tested more than others. That claim aside, the county clearly had some notable early fatalities.  Given that, the two statements are interesting as it appears that Fremont County is set to open matters up one way or another, the status of the state orders notwithstanding.

The County, of course, shares a large portion of its territory with the Wind River Indian Reservation, which is a separate sovereign that has its own more restrictive provisions.  The County cannot impact decisions made by the reservation.

All of this does point out a weakness in the state's system.  The state itself has very little in the way of authority to actually easily enforce its orders.  Wyoming lacks a statewide police force outside of the Highway Patrol, which itself is not suitable for any sort of statewide policing.  Really enforcing the state's orders, by the state, would require the state to divert the HP and might require some mobilizatin of the National Guard, neither of which is going to occur in this context.  If the county refuses to act the state's only recourse would be to the courts in an action directed at the county health officer, which is unlikely unless a things start going really badly in the county.

In other news, Dr. Fauci declared that the NFL playing its season in the fall was ill advised, but the NFL indicated it was going forward with plans anyhow.  This came at a time in which some individuals employed in roles close to the White House have come down with the disease.

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May 14, 2020

Wyoming is rapidly reopening.  Yesterday the Governor issued a new set of orders.  The announcement for them stated:

Restrictions ease under new orders, Governor allocates $17 million in CARES Act funding to expand COVID-19 testing and health response

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has announced that updated public health orders effective May 15 will ease restrictions on several business categories and permit restaurants to resume indoor table service statewide. The Governor has also allocated $17 million in federal funding to expand COVID-19 testing, improve contact tracing and add to the state’s supply of personal protective equipment (PPE). 

“We have been working diligently to modify our public health orders to continue a safe and sensible reawakening of Wyoming’s economy,” Governor Gordon said. “I am also pleased to be directing funds available through the CARES Act to improve our ability to identify cases of COVID-19 and limit public exposure to the virus.” 

The modified orders allow restaurants to offer indoor and outdoor dining service under specific conditions intended to limit the potential spread of COVID-19. These include adequate spacing of tables, a requirement that staff wear face coverings and be screened for symptoms of COVID-19, as well as the implementation of increased sanitation measures. The Wyoming Business Council will host a webinar on Thursday, May 14, to provide information and guidance for restaurant industry businesses eligible for expanding operations under the new orders. 

The further easing of orders expands the public gathering limit and permits larger gatherings for churches, religious organizations and funeral homes as long as they implement social distancing measures and specific sanitization procedures. 

Movie theaters and performance venues will also be allowed to reopen in a limited capacity and permit public gatherings of up to 25 persons. Gyms may now open locker rooms, offer personal training and provide group classes for up to 20 participants. Childcare centers will be permitted to have up to 25 persons total in a classroom.

“We must continue to be vigilant about social distancing,” Governor Gordon said. “I am confident that the public and business community will continue to recognize that their actions will allow us to continue a safe, steady path forward. It is important to remember that even as we ease restrictions, COVID-19 is still with us and will continue to be present in Wyoming for some time.” 

The $15 million Governor Gordon has allocated to the Wyoming Department of Health will help the agency increase its diagnostic testing and contact tracing capabilities. Funds will be used to bolster testing capacity at the Public Health Laboratory, obtain additional testing supplies and provide additional support to the team that does contact tracing, that includes people in communities across the state.

The Governor has also allocated $2 million to the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, who will be working with the Wyoming Business Council to purchase Personal Protective Equipment and distribute it to non-health care related entities to support public safety for businesses and other entities across the state under the new health orders. 

The orders can be found here:

• FourthContinuationStatewideOrder1_Signed.pdf
• FourthContinuationStatewideOrder3_Signed.pdf
• FourthContinuationStatewideOrder2_Signed.pdf

The Wyoming Air National Guard will be doing a fly over of regional hospitals throughout the state on Friday to honor health care workers.  At the same time, some of the emergency centers set up for the Pandemic are standing down. They'll remain ready as a reserve, should the virus revive, but they are not going to be maintained on a standing basis.

France ended its lockdown on May 11.

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May 21, 2020

Governor Gordon signed three bills that came out of the recent special session, but used his line item veto as well.  His press announcement stated:

Governor Gordon signs 3 bills from Special Session
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has signed three pieces of legislation passed by the Wyoming Legislature that provide a framework for spending $1.25 billion in federal funding awarded to the State through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

The bills were developed and passed during the Legislature’s special session held electronically on May 15-16.

Senate File 1001 gives the Governor further flexibility to spend the $1.25 billion in CARES Act funding through three allotments. It sets out $450 million immediately, an additional $400 million starting on July 15 and the remaining balance of $400 million beginning Sept. 15.

Senate File 1002 makes changes to the State’s unemployment insurance program and workers compensation program. It also creates an eviction prevention program that will be administered by the Wyoming Community Development Authority.
House Bill 1004 provides funding to establish three business-relief programs that will provide assistance to Wyoming companies impacted by COVID-19 and health orders. It allocates $50 million for the “Wyoming Business Interruption Stipend Program" to help businesses with 50 or fewer employees with grants of up to $50,000 dollars; $225 million for the “Coronavirus Business Relief Stipend Program” to assist businesses with up to 100 employees with stipends of up to $300,000; and $50 million for the “Coronavirus Mitigation Stipend Program” that will help Wyoming businesses of any size pay for COVID-19 related expenses up to $500,000.
The Governor exercised his line-item veto authority to address two elements of House Bill 1004. The first addresses the timing of the allocation of funds. Under the bill as written, the Legislature appropriated $325 million for these business relief programs, but required the entire appropriation be applied to the initial $450 million. This would limit the Governor’s flexibility to address other urgent needs prior to July 15.
The second line-item veto removes the $20,000 minimum amount that businesses would be eligible for under the Business Interruption Stipend Program. This better aligns the grant to the true need of the smallest businesses with minor losses.

The Governor’s veto letter and an additional letter addressing Senate Files 1001 and 1002 are attached. 

• Considerations in signing SEA1 and SEA2.pdf
• Line Item Veto HEA0001 HB1004 COVID-19 business relief programs.pdf

In other news, after having seemingly reached a plateau, Wyoming is now experiencing an increase in reported cases.  One in Natrona County is associated with a daycare and has lead to the quarantining of those who work there or attended there.  Additionally, the state has made four death announcements in five days.

This has resulted in the Governor cautioning residents of the state regarding letting recommended precautions lapse as if the virus no longer is a factor.  In Natrona County it lead to one of the county's health officer physicians expressing his overall disappointment on the same thing.

The state has additionally confirmed that six of the eleven deaths in the state are from the Wind River Indian Reservation, pointing to health conditions that are impacting the Reservation's residents at a higher rate than elsewhere.

In other news, not surprisingly, there's been a lot of countervailing news regarding the progress on a vaccine. There does appear to be real and genuine progress towards one being developed, and fairly rapidly.  In the meantime, however, one medical expert has expressed the opinion that SARS-CoV-2 will simply become endemic in the human population and the now living generation and generations to come will just have to live with it.

President Trump, it was announced, has been taking the anti malaria drug hydroxychloroquine.  It's not really known if this drug has an impact of preventing malaria or not.

There was debate this last week about the death toll so far, although that debate is a bit pointless in terms of its nature.  Reported deaths are over 80,000, meaning that no matter what a person's view is, its now killed more people than influenza this year in the U.S.  2020 has been a fairly bad flu year, but because the flu isn't tracked the same way that COVID 19 is, we don't really know how many people it has killed.  It's between 24,000 and 62,000, which means that this year infectious virus deaths are going to be extremely bad, rather obviously.

Interesting, a person has to wonder if the various shelter in place orders are also having a flattening impact on the flu.  It should be.

Be that as it may, the real death toll is almost certainly at least 100,000 and likely over that.

Oddly, as we approached that number comparisons to the Vietnam War, whose death toll was half that, have stopped.  They never made much sense anyhow, as wars aren't actually comparable to epidemics.

FWIW, about 40,000 Americans lost their lives in automobile accidents in 2019.  Because of the big decrease in driving right now, my guess is that for 2020 it will be lower.

In comparison to that, the number of murders in the U.S. in 2018, the last year I could find FBI data for, was 16,214 people, a figure that's likely to surprise people given that the press likes to give the impression that the US is awash in a sea of violence. That was down from the year prior, which has been a recent trend.  In spite of the common assumption of the opposite, it's likely that the murder rate will be lower again this year in my view.

This is also true, fwiw, of "gun deaths", a somewhat phone statistic.  The number of "gun deaths" of all types has declined every year since 1967 and in 2017 was 23,854 of which well over half were suicides.  I'm not saying that death by any means is somehow benign or to be ignored, but this figure, like others attributable to human causes, is going down, not up.

I'm also not saying that this means COVID 19 is not a big deal.  Indeed, these figures should show the opposite.  While we don't know how many people died of the flu this year, twice as many have died so far from COVID 19.

Brazil, we'd note, is now the pandemic hot spot.

This also, fwiw, plays a bit into misreporting.  The Press has done a very bad job regarding the spread of the disease and what it means in terms of statistics.  The suggestion has been, and the suggestion has been adopted here and elsewhere, that the United States is a disease mess and SARS-CoV-2 has been spreading through the country like wildfire at a far worst rate than anywhere else.  This has been based on the constant claim that the US has lead the world in infections.

Frankly, we don't know if that's true to start with as we really don't know the true infection rate in China, where the disease originated.  Additionally, the infection rate for a closed dictatorial country like China should be much lower than for an open society like the United States.

We unfortunately don't really even know the infection rate by percentage of the population for anywhere, due to the difficulty of detecting the disease in the overall population.  In sheer numbers the US leads with over 1.5M confirmed cases comparable to China's 84,000, but that's almost certainly misleading.  In confirmed cases, fwiw, Russia, which earlier claimed basically to have prevented it, comes in second at 317,000 cases.

But then by the same token Canada comes in just behind China with 81,000 cases. But if we accept China's total as real, that means the disease is much worse in Canada which has a much, much, smaller population.  Indeed, that would reflect a rampaging Canadian infection rate as compared to the China.

Anyhow, the disease is on the march in Brazil and we have to wonder how many other countries in the southern hemisphere as well as those in the less developed parts of the world have pretty high infection rates, and we just don't know it yet.

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May 23, 2020

This is Memorial Day weekend, generally an at least somewhat somber event, and this year particularly so.  We start with this news item from This Day In Wyoming's History, for yesterday, May 22, 2020.

2020  Governor Gordon orders flag's at half staff until Sunday, May 24, in honor of the victims of the Coronavirus.  The proclamation read:

Governor orders flags be flown at half staff statewide until May 24

in honor of the victims of the novel coronavirus pandemic

CHEYENNE, Wyo. - Governor Mark Gordon, pursuant to President Donald Trump's Proclamation, has ordered both the U.S. and State of Wyoming flags be flown at half-staff statewide until sunset on Sunday, May 24, 2020 in honor of the victims of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The Presidential Proclamation follows: 

Our Nation mourns for every life lost to the coronavirus pandemic, and we share in the suffering of all those who endured pain and illness from the outbreak. Through our grief, America stands steadfast and united against the invisible enemy. May God be with the victims of this pandemic and bring aid and comfort to their families and friends. As a mark of solemn respect for the victims of the coronavirus pandemic, by the authority vested in me as President of the United States by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby order that the flag of the United States shall be flown at half-staff at the White House and upon all public buildings and grounds, at all military posts and naval stations, and on all naval vessels of the Federal Government in the District of Columbia and throughout the United States and its Territories and possessions until sunset, May 24, 2020. I also direct that the flag shall be flown at half-staff for the same length of time at all United States embassies, legations, consular offices, and other facilities abroad, including all military facilities and naval vessels and stations.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-first day of May, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred forty-fourth.


DONALD J. TRUMP

On a related note, the Wyoming Oregon Trail Veterans Cemetery in Evansville, Wyoming, cancelled its traditional Memorial Day event due to the desire to avoid a large crowd and the impossibility of complying with current crowd restrictions.

Cemetery buildings of the Wyoming Oregon Trail Veterans Cemetery.

In the typical American fashion, Memorial Day is also a three day weekend and the traditional beginning of summer for Americans.  It usually features picknics and gatherings.  This year, the public ones have been closed.

Also notable, of course, its nature means its associated with religious services of various kinds. At this point a lot of churches are opening up in disregard of the present orders, although others with large structures are not fully open yet. In any event, President Trump entered the fray on this yesterday and classified churches as "essential" entities and urged Governors to open them back up, threatening to open them by Presidential fiat if they fail, although its doubtful that he has that power.

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