Showing posts with label 2024 Election Post Mortem. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2024 Election Post Mortem. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Blog Mirror: Revitalizing the American Republic

A really shallow interview, in my opinion, but Dineen is one of the big figures in National Conservatism, so it's worth at least glancing at what he had to say:

Revitalizing the American Republic

Sunday, November 24, 2024

2024 Election Post Mortem, Part 2. What's going on?

Well of course, it's hard to tell.


November 11, 2024

And indeed, there are already those, who pollyannish like insist that maybe this time Trump will be different, and not carry through with all his claims, promises, and threats.

I listed to all three weekend shows this week, and they're well worth listening to.  For the most part, with one exception, Democrats have realized that latching on to far left social issues sank them. Even Bernie Sanders seemed to agree.  The exception really seemed clueless.

A scary former Trump ambassador to Japan seemed, now in Congress for Tennessee, seems intent on cutting off all aid to Ukraine.

Susie Wiles will be Trump's chief of staff.

On that, there are already noting how that's "historic" as she's the first woman to be appointed to that role.  No it isn't.  Frankly, once Barrack Obama was elected President most of the claimed "firsts" are really meaningless.

Trump has apparently instructed Republicans in Congress to hold up Biden judicial nominees.

cont:

And now we know the "Border Czar" will be Tom Homan, who in a recent interview with 60 Minutes, supported deporting kids who were born and raised in the US to undocumented immigrants, stating: “Families can be deported together.”

Homan had stated at a Nation Conservatism conference: "Trump comes back in January, I'll be on his heels coming back, and I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen. They ain't seen shit yet. Wait until 2025."

How charming.

cont:

Elise Stefanik has been chosen to be Ambassador to the United Nations.

November 12, 2024

Former Green Beret, Florida Republican Rep. Mike Waltz, a China hawk, will be National Security Advisor.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will head the Department of Homeland Security

Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York will run the Environmental Protection Agency.  He's expected to go after environmental regulations, and be hostile to climate policy.

Somebody, or some group, is clearly advising Trump on these picks.  But who is it?  

Marco Rubio will be Secretary of State, a position that he undoubtedly will be unable to retain throughout a second Trump administration.

Russian television, which is presumed not to run items without Putin's permission, ran nude photos of Melania Trump.  This is interesting in that Trump has a weird relationship with Putin, and you have to wonder what the message was supposed to be.

Cont:

Tom Homan:

The illegal animals coming across the border... 31% of women that make their journey get raped by criminal cartels.

Children get raped. I've talked to little girls as young as nine that have been raped multiple times.

These cartels are animals. And that's why President Trump's gonna take 'em off the face of Earth.

[Trump] will use them full might of the United States Special Operations to take 'em out.

 Trump in fact asked about doing something of this nature in his prior term.

Cont:

John Ratcliffe will serve as CIA director.

November 13, 2024

Fox news commentator Pete Hegseth, a National Guard officer, has been chosen by Trump as Secretary of Defense.

Seems like a poor choice.  Maybe even a bit of a scary one.

Former Arkansas Governor and Baptist minister Mike Huckabee, a very strong supporter of Israel, perhaps even one that might be regarded as extreme on the point, has been chosen as Ambassador to the country.

This will not be good for peace in the Middle East.  Arab Americans who abstained from voting will no reap the fruits of that action, and they'll be bitter fruits.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to something that will be called the Department of Efficiency.  I don't see this lasting.

These picks look a lot like what a lot of people expected, and feared.

Cont:

John Thune (R-S.D.) will be the next Senate Majority Leader.

Cont:  

Secretary of Defense putative nominee has apparently stated "I'm straight up just saying we should not have women in combat roles." Frankly, that's my view as well, and that view is widely shared within the military itself.  This is interesting, however, as this would normally probably be a disqualifying viewpoint.  We'll see if it had any impact on his chances of being confirmed.

We'll also see, of course, if he acts on his view.  A large number of the views Trump expressed in his 2016 campaign of this type never saw the light of day in his administration.

I actually have a long and very old draft of a post on women in combat I've never completed.  I ought to, but now I'm reluctant given that I don't want to be seen leaping on board the incoming administration's bandwagon.

Cont:

Trump has nominated Matt Gaetz to be Attorney General of the United States.

My prediction is that even the Republican Senate won't be able to stomach that.

What a joke.

November 14, 2024

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State.

Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Security.

John Barrasso, Senate Whip.

Gaetz, who was the topic of an upcoming ethics investigation, has resigned from Congress.  

Cont:

When he (Gaetz) was accused of sleeping with an underage girl, there’s a reason why no one in the conference defended him. We all saw videos he was showing us on the House floor of girls he slept with & brag how he would crush ED medicine so he could go all night.

Sen. Mullin, R. Oklahoma.

Cont:

Republican Senator John Cornyn is going to ask the House Ethics Committee to release the findings of the Matt Gaetz investigation.

Cont:

And now RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services.

With this appointment and Gaetz, Heath May put it best.  "Another day, another dumb ass"

November 15, 2024

Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior.

This is again an interesting choice.  Only 3.9% of North Dakota is Federal land.  However, users of Federal land in the West might take some cautious optimism out of this as Western politicians, completely contrary to the views of those they serve, have taken on the land grabbing mindset illustrated  by Utah's effort to grab Federal lands in court, which has been sadly supported by Wyoming.

Cont:

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson regarding the House ethics investigation report for Gaetz:

I’m going to strongly request that the Ethics Committee not issue the report.

Cont:

Governor Gordon Commends Selection of Governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior 

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement following the announcement from President Trump that North Dakota governor Doug Burgum will lead the Department of Interior.

“I congratulate my friend Doug Burgum and I commend President Trump for his selection of Governor Burgum as Secretary of the Interior. Since almost half of Wyoming’s surface land and 67% of its mineral resources are managed by the federal government, the Secretary of the Interior is integral to Wyoming’s economic well-being and future. It is good that we have a friend in that office.

Doug has a deep understanding of the importance of energy development while maintaining valuable wildlife and outdoor recreation opportunities. He and I have worked together on these issues for the past six years. We see eye-to-eye on the importance of a domestically focused, all-of-the-above energy policy for public lands and minerals. I know personally his love of the outdoors. I am confident that under his leadership, future decisions regarding land management and wildlife issues in Wyoming will not utilize a top-down, DC-driven approach, but rather be made cooperatively, with local interests at the forefront. I look forward to working with him.”

-END-


November 16, 2024

Karoline Leavitt, age 27, as press secretary.

Cont: 

Chris Wright, CEO of Denver-based Liberty Energy, secretary of the Department of Energy.

November 18, 2024

Mitch McConnell has stated there will be no recess appointments.

November 19, 2024

Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce.

Cont:

Mehmet Oz to serve as administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Truly, this is the most pathetic set of appointments, ever.

November 23, 2024

Dr. Janette Nesheiwat for Surgeon General.

Pam Bondi to replace Gaetz, who withdrew.

Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.

Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon for Secretary of Labor.

Scott Turner, for the Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

November 24, 2024

Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture.  She's a Texas A&M trained lawyer with an undergraduate in agricultural development.

Dr. Marty Makary, Food and Drug Administration commissioner.

Rep. Dave Weldon, a Republican from Florida, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Russell Vought, a co-author of Project 2025, to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

Last edition:

2024 Election Post Mortem, Part I. What the heck happened?

Saturday, November 9, 2024

An Open Letter to National Conservatives.

Dear National Conservatives,

First of all, allow me to say, well played.  

You well know that there was no earthly way that the public would vote for one of your members at any time in the near future, if ever.  Indeed, while your movement has risen considerably in recent years, you know that it was likely to be at most just an outside influence on the periphery of conservative thought at the very most, and likely not for long.  Your sense of urgency required a bold move, before, in your view, things were too late, and you made it.

It required your man, J. D. Vance, to lie and say outrageous things, but he proved willing to do it.  Aquinas may have declared all lies to be sins, but obviously you felt that lying for the greater cause, as you see it, would be forgivable.  You seek to reform the nation into a province of 15th Century Christendom, and you have been willing to do what is necessary to do that.

Now, of course, your next move depends on Trump getting out of the way.  You know, as well as I, that Trump isn't a member of your movement and is unpredictable.  Indeed, his philandering and serial polygamy is abhorrent to what you stand for.  Moreover, his economic policies are likely to make Vance unelectable as a successor, and you know it.  By 2028, somebody else will be waiting in the wings. Vice Presidents are not elected to office more often than not, as Kamala Harris' plight just demonstrated.  And Trump's meandering thoughts and unpredictability are just as likely to cause him to replace Mr. Vance with Jenny McCarthy or Robert Kennedy as they are to really keep your boy around.

So you have limited time.

The plan, I suspect, is to declare an increasingly addled Donald Trump mentally incompetent soon.  You can't do it in January, 2026. But you likely can by March, 2027. At any rate, the sooner the better.

Not that I'm your fan. Not hardly.  You scare me.  But you don't scare me as much as Donald Trump.  

And he should scare you too.

Sincerely,

Yeoman.  

Friday, November 8, 2024

2024 Election Post Mortem, Part I. What the heck happened?


And so the finger pointing, blaming, and name calling has begun.

The 2024 Presidential Election was supposed to be close.

It wasn't.  And that means something.  How did the nation elect a convicted felon who hung out with a procurer and who is a creepy serial polygamist, who also is likely sliding into dementia, as President of the United States?

Well, there are a lot of views out there.  We offer ours, including some things we noted early on.

1.  It turns out that we were correct that Biden shouldn't have run in the first place, and that Harris shouldn't have stepped into the breach.

Biden was supposed to be a caretaker President.  "Go with the Joe you know" only made sense as long as it was just one cup of coffee.  People didn't want a refill. Biden was supposed to carry on for four years while the nation got back on its feet from a traumatic Trump presidency and figured out where to go next.

Biden's diehard insistence on running again doomed that, and in some ways, the Democrats chances in 2024.

Biden, in his defense, was dealt a bad hand right from the onset.  Left with an economy impacted by COVID, he had to deal with it, and he did a good job.  The inflation that caused was not of his making, and he actually pulled off a soft landing.  In the future, he's likely to be regarded as having pulled an economic rabbit out the hat.

And his rallying to the cause of Ukraine is singularly responsible for the country not being overrun by the Russians.

But people are stupid about economics, and stupidly believe that once inflation slows, prices return to the pre inflation norm, which actually required deflation, which generally causes a depression.  That tar baby is now Trump's, as Trump won't be able to pull that off either.

More than that, however, Biden's advanced age was showing, whereas its seemingly not as noticeable with Trump.  It was real hubris of Biden to run for a second term, and he shouldn't have done it.  That set the Democrats behind.

When he finally stepped out, I noted that the time that Harris shouldn't step in.  She did.  She actually also ran a much better campaign than I initially thought she would.  Frankly, I don't know that I can blame her for running, or blame the Democrats for running her.  She proved to be too easy to tag with the issues that had hurt Biden, however, which did not make up the reasons that I thought she should not have run.

2.  It's actually the social issues, stupid.

El Paso Sheriff : What's it mean? What's it leadin' to? You know, if you'd have told me 20 years ago, that I'd see children walking the streets of our Texas towns with green hair and bones in their noses, I just flat-out wouldn't have believed you.

Ed Tom Bell : Signs and wonders. But I think once you quit hearing "sir" and "ma'am," the rest is soon to foller.

El Paso Sheriff : Oh, it's the tide. It's the dismal tide.

No Country For Old Men. 

We warned prior to 2016 that Justice Kennedy's opinion in Obergefell had awakened a latent sleeping giant.  It did.

People keep analyzing the race in terms of the economy, which I myself partially did above.  But the big issue, to put it bluntly, is that Obergefell shocked many people into confronting the moral decline of the nation, something that had been going on for a very long time.

Sexual immorality in the US really commenced its roll in the late 1940s, as we've discussed before, and started to accelerate in 1953 with the launch of Playboy, and then really took off in the 1960s with the pill and the Sexual Revolution.  The irony of all of this, however, is the public tolerated it, although not always very comfortably, as it fit into conventional immorality.  That is, the White Anglo Saxon Protestant community basically tolerated a boys will be boys attitude at first, and then accommodated itself to other trends later, as long as things roughly worked out the way they were supposed to in the end, although they have not been working out for quite some time.  Once Obergefell came along, however, the public was asked to accommodate something else, and it hasn't, and for a host of reasons.  Transgenderism, which really doesn't exist, came hard on the heels of homosexual marriage, and it was just too much for large sections of the country.

At one time, it might be noted, it was a common assertion that the Babylon Berlin atmosphere of 1920's Germany had brought about the Nazis, in part, as they seemed to stand against unconventional immorality.  In truth, homosexuality was present in the early Nazis, but the movement did a good job of plastering over it so it was ignored, if known, just like Trump's flagrant immoral conduct with women is at least somewhat known, if ignored.  It allowed people to believe that that the Nazis would foster a return to pre 1914 moral standards, while ignoring that they would inflict new horrors.*  A lot of that has gone on in the populist movement as well, which sort of imagines that the country will sort of return to an imagined 1950s, or an imagined 1970s.

The Democrats didn't even try to do anything about this, but rather embraced the matters that the Trump populists and their fellow travellers opposed.  That's a big part of what occured.  Americans proved to be willing to go pretty far with changes in Christian morality before they started regretting it, which they did, but to be kicked into a new room with a bunch of very unconventional behaviors was more than they could bear.  It not only spawned a massive counterreaction, but it spawned radical new theories about the nature of what was going on, much of them false, and sort of a modified variant of a Great Awakening, that we haven't seen the end of yet.**  This reaction, moreover, wasn't limited to the US, but has been scene all over the Western World, caused by similar events.

You have to know the times you live in.

3. What we repeatedly said about abortion being a hill to die on was correct.

Hell Courtesan by Kawanabe Kyōsai.

Part of the solid evidence of the Democrats being marooned in a post Vietnam War liberal past is the absolute adherence to swimming in a sea of blood.

I warned earlier that grasping tight to abortion was a critical mistake for Democrats, but they saw it as a great issue, one that would turn women out to vote in favor of infanticide.

Instead, what it did was to force truly adherent Christians to vote against them, even if not to vote for Harris. I was one of them.  I voted for the American Solidarity Party.  I would have anyhow, but in a state that was close, this cost the Democrats votes.  It may very well have cost them the election.

Ironically, and the Democrats failed to grasp it, Donald Trump's wishy washiness on this helped him.  Lots of Evangelicals and even Catholics could rationalize voting for him as he seemed to be against abortion, sort of.  Hadn't his court brought Dobbs around?  And Republican women who otherwise adhered to the American Civil Religion could rationalize voting for pro abortion ballot measures while voting for trump, essentially voting for the things they were comfortable with from the 1970s, like abortion and birth control, while voting against homosexuality and transgenderism.

Indeed, the entire religiosity of the Trumpites is much like this, although not of the National Conservatives. They're okay with cheating men, up to a limit, premarital sex, and divorce, as long as the plumbing matches. They aren't okay with homosexuality.  Truly religious voters were never supportive of abortion, which Harris leaned deeply into.

Democrats should have known that and figures out a way to deal with it.  Even simply taking the same position as Trump, let the states deal with it, would have leveled the choice for many.  Or they could have just remained completely silent in the election on abortion and transgenderism, which would have caused some votes to swing their way.

If the Democrats don't modify their position on abortion, they're not going to do better in 2028.

4.  What we noted as long ago as 2016 about ignoring rust belt issues is still true.


We noted a long time ago that Trump's 2016 victory was brought about in part due to a massive discontent over immigration issues and American jobs going overseas.  Both Democrats and Republicans were complicit in this for years.

The problem here is that this festering sore has become infected, and crossed from discontent into malevolence.  Basically, its much like small town Germans thinking that a local Jewish butcher was odd, to thinking he's in league with evil. This has been downright scary.

Democrats woke up to the problem of decades long mass illegal immigration, but too late.  Now, it appears, we're about to engage in a mass immorality.

This one was a hard one for the Democrats.  Biden screwed up early in his administration on this issue.  Harris was tarred with it.  It would have taken a different candidate to distance from it, perhaps, quite frankly, a Hispanic one.  There are solutions, but some of them are quite out of the box, very pre 1940, and a bit drastic.

Likewise, Trump introduced his absurd tariffs concept.  The idea is underdeveloped and economically flaccid.  But Rust Belt people don't care as in their minds if electric vehicles don't come in from China, 1965 Chevrolet Impalas will come back. This won't happen, and this will rapidly prove to be incorrect.

5.  Demographics change.

Roman Catholic Cathedral Santuario de Guadalupe (Cathedral Shrine of the Virgin of Guadalupe), Dallas Texas





Dedicated in 1902 as the Cathedral of the Sacred Heart, this cathedral was renamed the Cathedral Santuario de Guadalupe in 1977, when another aging Dallas church dedicated to the Lady of Guadalupe was torn down. This cathedral has the second largest parish congregation in the United States.

Democrats in the 1960s abandoned white Southern racists in favor of the minorities of the time, much to their credit.  Up until that time, African Americans had been Republicans.  Democrats remembered that Italian American and Irish Americans had been, and were, theirs.

But they failed to notice that Roe v. Wade shattered the Catholic immigrant retained vote of earlier eras. For some reason, they didn't grasp that retaining abortion and embracing transgenderism and abortion would come to offend  large groups of American, and even immigrant, Hispanics, who had a similar Catholic morality.  And they didn't grasp that at the pew level, this was also true for the Black Church and many African Americans, who came to resent having their cause compared to ones based on sexual orientation or practice.

They also forgot that minority adherence to patronage only lasts as long as poverty does.  Once a demographic moves into the Middle Class, it begins to disappear within a generation or two.  Irish Americans and Italian Americans were once solidly Democratic.  This hasn't been the case for a long time.  Hispanics have been moving out of poverty, and so have African Americans.

And Hispanic Americans, which are a diverse group to start with.

This left the Democratic party a party of old Boomers, and the white upper middle class, and lower upper class, white, effete, elites.  They're aren't enough of them to win an election.

Footnotes

*The Nazis ended up sending homosexuals to the death camps.  They were highly resistant to women working, and only relented on it as the war began to go very badly.  They'd also encourage pregnancy, including out of wedlock, by German women, which was definitely contrary to traditional Christian morality.

This is of note, not because there will be death camps, but because Germans voting on morality issues didn't get what they bargained for at all.  Americans doing the same in the 2024 election are likely to find they may be surprised.

**As an example, while at the county courthouse to vote early, I encountered an elderly man wearing a MAGA hat who was informing people that transgenderism "wasn't invented here", whatever that would mean, and that this was a reason to vote for Trump.