Which also shows that the classic "NATO isn't pulling its weight" is bull crap.
Showing posts with label North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Show all posts
Sunday, March 2, 2025
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Closing out 2024.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
A bad time of the year to start a new edition, but the old one was just too long.
December 29, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Putin has apologized for the downing of a civilian airliner.
Syrian Civil War
Lebanon has arrested Syrian Army officers taking refuge in the country and suspended the operation of the Syrian embassy there.
British born Asma Fawaz al-Assad (أسماء فواز الأسد), wife of the fallen dictator, is rumored to be battling leukemia.
December 31, 2024
Russo Ukrainian War
Russia rejected the peace plan of Putin fan boy Donald Trump, who promised during his recent campaign for the presidency to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as soon as he was elected.
An element of the plan was eventual NATO membership for Ukraine. It was to be delayed for twenty years. Russia also rejected the deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine.
Rejection aside, a person could easily question to what degree Trump himself came up with any of this. The peacekeeper deployment was a good idea, as was NATO membership, although a twenty year delay was an awful idea.
And, so we close out 2024.
Last edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.
Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Denmark boosts Greenland's defenses.
Greenland's defenses are being boosted, something that Denmark claims is coincidental, but which comes hard on the heels of soon to be octogenarian president elect Donald Trump making sounds about the United States "needing" it, which is complete baloney and likely further evidence of his inability to contain his mental wonderings in the face of the onset, most likely, of dementia.
$1.5B in U.S. Dollars are to be spent, a major amount.
Expenditures will include two extra dog sled teams, two more inspection ships, two more long-range drones, two extra dog sled teams, funding for more staffing at Artic Command in Nuuk, and upgrades to airports.
Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen claimed the timing of the announcement is an "irony of fate" and was something that needed to be done for a long time.
On Greenland, it's worth noting that the US has a base there, Pituffik Space Base, which was an Air Force base before the Trump dribble the Space Farce was created. Anyhow, the base, controlled by the absurdly named Space Base Delta 1, is there, but could just as easily be taken over by an adult nation, such as Canada, Denmark itself, or Norway. Denmark and Greenland really ought to serve notice to the US that the US can move out on inauguration day.
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Wednesday, August 14, 1974. Second Turkish invasion of Cyprus.
Turkey invaded Cyprus again, taking 37% of the country, establishing a republic recognized only by it, and dividing the capital Nicosia.
Greece withdrew from NATO"s military command structure as a result of the invasion. The Greek Cypriot paramilitary group EOKAB took Tochni and by the end of the day had murdered numerous people.
The Greek culture on Cyprus goes back to antiquity, although the island was never ruled by Greece. The Turkish presence to 1571 when the Ottomans took the island and began to partially settle it. The troubles of the 1970s, which have lasted to this day, were started by the Greek nationalist military junta, giving another example of the disastrous effects of Greek overreach in regard to Turkey.
The East Asia Anti-Japan Armed Front (EAAJAF) attempted to assassinate the Emperor Hirohito with a railroad bomb, but was the plot was discovered and disrupted. The terrorist group was Japanese, in spite of its name, but was in reaction to the Japanese history of aggression, as well as having a far left ideology.
Last edition
Friday, August 9, 1974. President Nixon Resigns.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
The 2024 Election, Part XVII. Standing on their feet or crawling on their knees.
April 24, 2024
And, yes, we already have yet another edition.
First, this:
Mike Johnson, after receiving intelligence briefings on the Russia war in Ukraine and praying about it, reversed his prior position heroically. Wyoming's two Senators, who undoubtedly are not in favor of Russian winning the war in Ukraine, and who must at least suspect that voting against aid to Ukraine might mean the butchered bodies of American soldiers in Europe next year or the year thereafter, voted against it anyway.
Politicians are rarely held responsible for willfully wrong votes. Cheney was penalized by the voters for doing the right thing, but had the courage to do it anyhow. Lummis and Barrasso are doing the wrong thing so as to avoid suffering her fate. When the day comes, and if Russia prevails there's a good chance of it happening, and Russia crosses the Curzon Line, or the Balkan frontier, and the US finds itself obligated by its NATO treaty to defend Europe, assuming that Donald Trump, who hasn't upheld his oath to the Constitution, or his marital vow(s) would honor our treaty obligations, will those Wyoming politicians, who are too old to serve themselves, at least recognize that they have blood on their hands?
Probably not.
Let's look just a little bit on some of the current local races.
Senate
Lummis isn't running for reelection, but Barrasso is.
Barrasso is in political trouble as his opponent, Reid Rasner, who is from the Populist Party, is giving him a real run for the money, or so it seems. Barrasso, therefore, is running to the right of himself.
No Democrat has announced as of yet.
Wyoming House District 35
NCSD employee Christopher Dresang is running against Rep. Tony Locke, R-Casper, a Freedom Caucus member. Dresang is a Casper native who is a graduate of the Catholic school system's St. Anthony’s, and then Natrona County High School, Casper College, the University of Wyoming, and Montana State University-Bozeman. Locke, unlike many Freedom Caucus members, is actually from Wyoming and has a MS in engineering, making him all the more unusual as he's highly educated and yet apparently a populist.
Wyoming House District 56
Jerry Obermeuller, who was a really good legislator, announced last weekend he was not running for reelection and expressed the hope that a Republican (non Populist) did.
Elissa Campbell announced her run for that seat yesterday. She's a Wyoming native, unlike the numerous imports that make up the Invader wing of the Freedom Caucus, and she owns a consulting agency in Casper. She has two BA's, one in Philosophy, one in Environmental Ethics from the University of Wyoming. The press interview lacked very much useful content, and all we really know is that she's a mammal. Those who know her, however, feel that she'll be much like Obermeuller in outlook.
Wyoming House District 57
Another Wyoming native, and a former teacher, Julie Jarvis, is running against Jeanette Ward, an Illinois Populist who the Wyoming Education Association has been taking on, and a prominent member of the Invader wing. Ward is amongst the most extreme in every fashion of the Populist, and was an extreme school board member in her native state of Illinois. Ward has managed to keep her patrim fairly quiet, so nobody has every really looked at it much, even though her presentation alone has a fish out of war element to it. Jarvis is Wyoming Basque from Buffalo, and came out swinging against her.
This promises to be an interesting race as every Basque I've ever known was really smart and extremely feisty. Jarvis grew up, it might be noted, in a farming family. What kind of family Ward grew up in is a mystery.
April 30, 2024
Wyoming House District 34
Freedom Caucus member Rep. Pepper Ottman will face rancher, businessman and conservationist Reg Phillips in the primary election.
Presidential Campaign.
In a semi amusing story, I've been watching some Democrats like Robert Reich be absolutely hysterical about the Robert F. Kennedy race all season long, as they insisted that Kennedy was a Trump funded effort to draw Democratic votes away from Biden. The same logic, I'd note, applied to the No Labels effort which failed. In both instances, it always seemed to me that these efforts would draw votes away from Trump, not Biden.
Well, turns out, I'm right. In recent polls, the RFK campaign is drawing Trump voters. Well, of course it would. It features at lease one of the goofball populist elements, anti vaccines, without the boatload of moral sludge that comes out of a box of Trump Toasties. There's really nothing in the RFK effort that would draw Biden voters. There's quite a lot that might draw Trump voters who otherwise don't quite like the smell of Trump. Now, reportedly, he's targeting Trump voters.
He stands no chance of winning. But in the general election, while he'll draw some voters from Biden as well, it's really those who would otherwise feel compelled to vote for Trump that are attracted to him. And there are no doubt still a surprising number of voters who aren't Democrats, but don't like Trump, but otherwise would feel compelled to vote for Trump.
May 7, 2024
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan has endorsed Joe Biden, stating that Trump has no moral compass.
Meanwhile, Trump, in trial in New York, seems to be cruising to be jailed for contempt of court if his current conduct keeps up.
Wyoming House District 42
Rob Geringer, s running for the state House against incumbent Freedom Caucus member Ben Hornok, stating that Wyoming's Republicans are losing their supermajoirty advantages by focusing on small differences.
Geringer is the son of the former Governor by that name.
May 9, 2024
Wyoming County Clerk's acting pursuant to requirements of the law purged 83,000 voters from the rolls, eliminating those who did not vote in the 2022 general election.
Wyoming, acting out of an imaginary fear of voter fraud where it doesn't exist, has eliminated same day registration, which means that a lot of those 83,000 that will show up to cast their votes this fall or this summer will be told to pound sand.
The Deadline to Register To Vote in the Primary is May 15.
Lots of people will ignore that. A lot of them will then bizarrely blame the Democrats.
Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has indicated he won't vote for Donald Trump, and is going to write in a Republican.
May 10, 2024
Donald Trump reportedly asked for 1B for his campaign. His campaign is noting that no quid pro quo was asked for.
May 11, 2024
Barron Trump, age 18, has declined to be a RNC delegate.
May 12, 2024
Christie Neom has been banned from two more South Dakota tribes meaning she's been banned from 20% of the landmass of her state.
RFK Jr, who previously was in favor of no restrictions on abortions, has changed his position to oppose abortion of viable infants, which is still a bloody position.
May 15, 2024
The largest Hispanic organization in the US, UnidosUS, has endorsed Joe Biden.
May 20, 2024
Tyler Cessor, executive director of the Wyoming Outdoor Council, has announced that he's running as an independent for House District 57, meaning that whoever prevails in that district, now occupied by Jeanette Ward, will face a candidate in the fall.
Cessor immediately was accused by Ward of aligning with the "radical Democrats" but it's clear that Ward is in trouble. With a 100% failure of her bills in the legislature and a record of being amongst the most populist of the "Freedom Caucus", she appears to be facing a real fight to retain her seat.
My guess, and it's just that, is that Ward will go down in the primary, and Cessor do poorly in the general.
Trump received the NRA's endorsement over the weekend. The extent to which the firearms' users organization has been extreme, so that's not surprising. What was interesting is that in a speech to the organization, Trump completely froze up when his teleprompter failed for 35 seconds. Use of a teleprompter is sadly common amongst modern politicians, and sometimes explains the poor quality of their oration, but Trump supporters have been harsh on Biden for using one.
May 27, 2024
Trump went to a NASCAR Race yesterday.
Hillary Clinton spoke, for reasons that are unfortunate and indeterminable, and stated that the Democrats didn't do enough to protect infanticide prior to the repeal of Roe.
For some unfathomable reason, the Democrats always choose to embrace things that make it impossible for some, who would vote for them, to do so.
The Secretary of State's office has published a list of who is running for office. We'll look first at the race for Washington seats:
And there's no earthly reason for John Holtz to try this again, as he will fail.
And a Democrat is now in the race against Hageman. She will lose, but at least somebody is trying.
State races are remarkably devoid of Democrats, all of which shows that the primary is the election that counts, and the state needs to move rapidly away from party affiliated elections.
May 29, 2024
Donald Trump endorsed John Barasso.
The current candidate roster.
Recent related threads:
Not a profile in courage.
Last prior edition:
The 2024 Election, Part XVI. The Compromised Morals Edition
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Turning the Tide in Ukraine (maybe) or at least helping them a bunch. What else the US can do. Part Two.
Gen. Clair Chennault.
Clair Chennault entered the U.S. Army during World War One, and resigned in 1937, going from there to China as a mercenary pilot for the Nationalist in their war against Japan. Following a mission on behalf of the Chinese to the US in 1939, the US funded and equipped the American Volunteer Group of pilots, the legendary P-40 flying "Flying Tigers". They weren't in the US military, at least not at that time. They were, quite frankly, mercenaries, but specialized ones.
A bit different, as they were officially in the Royal Air Force, the British fielded three fighter squadrons made up of US volunteers. "Eagle Squadrons"
There was a well-worn precedent for that. During World War One, while Woodrow Wilson was promising to keep us out of war, the French fielded Escadrille N. 124, the Escadrille de La Fayette. It's pilots were Americans.
They weren't the only unit in the Great War like that. Perhaps the most famous one was the Czech Legion, made up of Czech and Slovak volunteers who fought at first on the Eastern Front, and then fought their way across Siberia to Vladivostok so they could be taken to France, after the Russian Revolution broke out, to rejoin the Allied effort.
During the Mexican War, the Republic of Mexico fielded a unit of volunteer, mostly Irish and Irish American, artillerymen, known as the San Patricio's. While Mexico lost the war, their performance was excellent.
The point?
Ukraine is taking in foreign volunteers for the Ukrainian Legion. However, much more here could be done along the same lines as the AVG. The AVG, basically, took in American military pilots used to American military gear, with that gear purchased for Nationalist China through an arrangement with the US.
This could be done in the war in Ukraine on a ground combat basis.
The US military was traditionally quite small before World War Two. From 1947 through 1990, however, it was very large due to the Cold War, and it's not been inconsequential in size since that time. The youngest of the Cold War warriors are now 52 years old, not young. But maybe not as old, in modern terms, as it might seem. At any rate, there are thousands of Americans in their 30s, 40s, and 50s who have served in the U.S. military.
Those men trained to fight the Soviet Union. And they used, in many cases, late Cold War and early post Cold War US equipment.
This isn't unique to the U.S. Germany only ended universal conscription of men n 2011. France in 1996. Thousands of men have served in the various NATO armies, using NATO standard equipment.
Why not create an American Volunteer Group and a European Volunteer Group and allow Ukraine to equip them with NATO standard weapons? There's more than enough old NATO equipment, surely, to equip two divisions in this fashion.
Would they be elite? Well, probably not, but they wouldn't be bad. Some have actually trained to fight the very war that's being fought right now.
And then there's pilots and aircraft.
Lots of men trained to fly high test American fighters are now flying commercial jet liners. Ukraine has asked for F-16s. Why not give them the F-16s with volunteer pilots?
And, we might at this point, why not include A-10s?
Saturday, November 11, 2023
A few Veterans Day Comments.
Somewhere in Korea.
I wasn't going to post on Veterans Day at all, in part because the overblown hero worship that's been attached to it for some time is really starting to bug me. But then, I've been owly recently anyhow.
But, as predictable (every year the number of posts on this site goes up, this year no exception, which is why I’m considering not posting at all in December) I changed my mind. A few random comments.
Were you in the Army?
My new associate asked me this the other day, as I have the photograph of my basic training platoon up on my office wall.
Funny, I'm so used to it being there, I never notice it.
Military service, regular and reserve, was routine when I was young. Not everyone had it by any means, but lots of people do.
And this was even more so for my parents. My father was in the Air Force, his brother in the Army. My other uncles in the World War Two Navy and Canadian Army, and post-war Navy. The guys my father ate lunch with every day had all been in the service.
Not so much anymore.
November 7, 1983: Able Archer 83, a Close Call
An item from Uncle Mike's fine blog.
I was in the National Guard at the time. Little did we realize how close we'd come to serving in a short, sharp, and probably nuclear war.
As odd as it may sound, I actually had predicted a war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact at about this time, a predication that didn't come true, but my reasoning was sound.
Reagan became President in 1981 and as soon as his first military budgets started to take effect, things really were noticeable in the Guard. New equipment, better field training, etc. The Warsaw Pact took note of that and started building up to counter it.
Able Archer, like Team Spirit, and Reforger were all part of the training regime of the time. It was no secret that the Warsaw Pact was trying to respond to it all. In the end, that spending brought them down. They couldn't afford it.
A lesson there to a country that's spending like crazy right now and just got economically downgraded.
Anyhow, my prediction nearly came true with Able Archer, but not for the reason I thought this would happen. I thought it would happen as the Warsaw Pact, or rather the USSR, would reason that it only had so much time while it had military superiority in which to act.
This was a view, I'd note, that was reinforced by playing the military hex and counter war games based on a NATO/Warsaw Pact war. It was pretty clear that it was really hard for NATO to win a conventional one.
Or so it seemed.
We vastly overrated the Red Army and Soviet military equipment, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.
Funny, at the same time I recall being assigned A Republic of Grass in college which suggested we surrender to the Soviets before a war broke out.
A note on Reagan
When Reagan was President, I wasn't sure what to make of him. As a Guardsman, we were all grateful for the new equipment and attitude. Carter's military had been a sad sort of thing, as exemplified, perhaps, by the failed attempt to mount a raid to free the Iranian embassy hostages.
But it seemed like we were messing around in Central America an awful lot, which I wasn't sure what to make of. In retrospect, it's clear that the Cold War was being played out there in proxy.
When Reagan was president, I was a university student. It seems to be forgotten now, but most university students weren't big Reagan fans. As noted, I wasn't an opponent, but I wasn't a fan. My father was convinced that Reagan had Alzheimer's which, in fact, he did.
On Reagan and Carter, it's interesting to note that Carter was an Annapolis graduate. Reagan had more of a military career than his opponents claimed, having been a pre-war cavalry reserve officer, but his wartime role was in the branch of the military that made films. That was honorable enough, but Reagan introduced the snappy salute to servicemen which stuck after that, and which I don't like. Presidents saluting servicemen seems really odd, particularly when we get Presidents who've never been in the military.
Anyhow, most of my conservative friends love and admire Reagan. I still am not so sure about him. I can see where he made course corrections at the time which were vital. It was under Reagan, really, that the country got back on its feet after the Vietnam War. And Reagan introduced the brief period of Buckleyite conservatism, which I like, to the government.
He also, however, started the populist smudge which is now a roaring flame by using the Southern Strategy to win, and that's having dire effects. And frankly, I'm not impressed with the starving of the government economically that came in at that time.
On this Veterans Day, don't thank those who served, but ponder those who didn't.
This sounds harsh, but I'm not kidding.
Most veterans don't really want to be thanked for serving. Truth be known, a lot of us served for reasons that weren't all that noble or were mixed. Paying for university was in my mind, for example.
Having said that, in my adult years I've known a few people who avoided serving in the military when there was a time of need. Some of them have real reason of conscience and can and do defend it, on the rare occasions it comes up.
In contrast, we have people who sort of hero worship the military, or who are public figures thanking it, about whom there are real questions.
Donald Trump sent out his thanks today, but he avoided the Vietnam draft on a medical profile. That's never been adequately answered, and in private comments he disdains those who served in the military, which fits right in with his epic level of being self impressed. Biden had draft deferments too, I'd note.
There are real reasons for deferments, but what gets me here is the co-opting of valor, or the bestowing of it on people who don't deserve it. People don't claim that Biden is some sort of hero. But you can find completely absurd illustrations of Trump as a military figure. I don't really see Trump voluntarily serving in any war at any time, and had he lived during the Revolution, I sure don't see him as some sort of Continental Army officer.
So, while it's rude, for at least some thanking veterans "for their service", an appropriate response is "why didn't you serve?".
The real purpose of the day
The real purpose of this day is to remember the dead and badly wounded. That's about it.
Lots of people serve during time of peace in one way or another. We don't deserve your thanks. Yes, I'm sure that I'm personally responsible for keeping the Red Horde at bay, but I didn't get hurt serving. Truth be known, I benefitted from it personally in all sorts of ways, a lot of which are deeply personal. The service formed a lot of my psychology on certain things in a permanent way, all of which are ways in which I'm glad that it did.
A lot goes into a person's personality, some of it more significant than others, and I do have more significant ones. The service was, however, a significant one. Hindsight being 20/20, I wish I had not gotten out of the Guard when I did, also for a selection of personal reasons.
So I owe the service thanks. The country doesn't really owe me any. But people whose lives were permanently altered or last? Well, that's a different matter.
Tuesday, October 3, 2023
Friday, November 11, 2022
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.
October 4, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
When this war started, I never thought, several months later, we'd be seriously looking at a situation in which Ukrainian forces stood a chance of completely driving the Russian military out of territory that Russia has been occupying since 2014.
Nor, frankly, had anyone else.
But it's begging to look as if they might. Indeed, it's more likely than not.
This is an example of Western military training, Ukrainian resolve, and the fact that the Russian army sucks, and always has, exercising its influence. Ukraine, it appears, is about to triumph in its second offensive in less than a month, and this one stands to expel the Russians from Ukraine,
Which means that a desperate Putin, who has painted himself into a corner, may be about to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Not until this past week would I have made that statement. But I am now. The man is unhinged from reality, and has left himself no choice, other than to act in a decent moral fashion or a manifestly evil one. But as observers of history and politics well know, at some point some people have so sold their souls such that the truth and morality no longer have any meaning.
Putin may have sold his soul long ago that reality no longer matters to him.
It won't work, but we're about to enter, maybe, the most slippery slope we have since . . . well ever. More slippery than the Cuban Missile Crisis, and certainly slipperier than Able Archer.
When, um I mean if, Putin orders the use of tactical nuclear weapons, NATO will reply in force, by destroying Russian ground assets in Ukraine and naval assets in the Black Sea, which may then mean that the current war expands, possibly, into a general European war. And if this war has proven anything, it's that the Russian military is so incredibly bad it won't be able to do anything whatsoever about it.
Of course, I suppose, it could retaliate with nuclear weapons, which I don't think it will, but which is a possibility of course.
At any rate, at this point, Russia appears to be very badly losing the war against Ukraine on territory that voted to leave Russia in 1991 but which Putin's Russia has been seeking to reclaim, and partially had. Now, Putin's miscalculated war, whose calculations were based on the Russian army amounting to something as it last had . . . well never, seems to be going completely amiss. Putin has left, however, his country very little choice. He can't negotiate because he's declared the territory to be part of Mother Russia, and he can't win, as the Russian army is as bad as it has ever been. The only thing he has left, as noted, are nuclear weapons.
Remarkably, Western military analysts do not seem particularly scared even while acknowledging the possibility, which should give us some comfort. Having long pondered a low yield nuclear war, they seem comfortable with one occurring, with only one side using them.
Let's hope it doesn't occur, and that God may help us all.
Господи, помоги нам всем.
Слава Україні!
Oct 4, cont:
Perhaps coincidentally, reports this morning report the movement of weapons from a nuclear missile unit, although at least in a Western army, such weapons would not be tactical nuclear weapons. And Russian ballistic missile was deployed in the Arctic. If these reports are correct, they are likely meant as warnings to the west, which won't and shouldn't be heeded.
Elon Musk, who proposed a peace plan on Twitter, received an enormous backlash, including from Ukrainian officials. He called Crimea part of Russia since the 1780s, and uniting it "Khrushchev's mistake". His plan also called for a UN administered vote on succession of those areas recently claimed to be annexed by Russia.
It was in fact conquered by the Russian Empire in 1783, but it had a distinct ethnic nature at the time. It was its own political subdivision inside the Soviet Union, although many Crimean Tartars were deported by the USSR after World War Two. It voted to leave Russia and join Ukraine in 1991 and had the status of a political subdivision until invaded and occupied by the Russians in 2014.
Musk has been taking a lot of flak on Twitter recently. This comes just after a spat with economist Robert Reich.
Oct 4, cont:
Washington Post headline from today:
Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts
October 5, 2022
Putin signed the annexation order on the partially occupied territories yesterday.
October 5, 2022 cont.
The Ukrainians have broken through at Svatove in Luhansk. Basically, the Russians are coming unglued.
October 8, 2022
A giant truck explosion has damaged the Crimea Bridge, the only land route over the Black Sea to Crimea.
October 9, 2022
Sergei Surovikin, who previously led Russian forces in Syria, has been placed in command of the effort in Ukraine. He'd also previously led the Russian effort in southern Ukraine. Recently, he's been in command of Russia's air and space assets.
October 10, 2022
Russia's reply to the truck bombing of the Crimea Bridge has been a missile offensive on Ukrainian targets, many of which are simply civilian targets.
Russia has effectively reverted to the practices of the Second World War in regard to target acquisition. I've noted it before here, but I regard the targeting of civilian targets from the air, by anybody, during World War Two to have been criminal in nature. Collateral damage, unfortunately, is another matter.
There's no excuse whatsoever for it now.
The truck bombing remains of unclear origin. Nobody has said anything to this effect, but it appears to likely have been a suicide bombing, which is generally out of character for the Ukrainian war effort. Some Russian sources feel that it included Russian dissident elements in its organization, and it may have. It may very well have been an independent or semi-independent act.
October 11, 2022
Iran
Widespread protests in Iran have extended to the nation's refineries.
Russo Ukrainian War
A second day of Russian missile attacks is ongoing in Ukraine, as the Russians do the only thing they seem capable of, lashing out at Ukraine in general.
Russian cyberterrorists launched a cyberattack on U.S. airports yesterday.
October 13, 2022
Uniting two pariah states in one war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are training Russian troops on the use of Ukrainian drones, inside of territory occupied by the Russians in Ukraine.
All the while, protests are spreading in Iran against its government over its treatment of women, effectively, and the loss of life of women at the hands of Iranian authorities.
October 15, 2022
Russia has suspended additional recalls/levies, having brought 220,000 men into service. 260,000 Russian men have fled the country. It appears that conscription/recall was one more thing the Russian government was unable to effectively manage.
October 15, cont.
Two volunteer Russian soldiers, from a former part of the Soviet Union, opened up on their fellow trainees today in Russia, killing eleven of them.
Which gives credence to my theory that the Crimea bridge bombing fits into the long history of auxiliary regional warfare. I.e, I think that will turn out to be the work of Georgians, or Armenians, or Azerbaijan's, rather than Ukrainians.
All of which means Russia is starting to encounter the fruits of its prior repressions in the current attempt to annex and subjugate Ukraine.
October 16, 2022
Ukrainian orchestra conductor Yuri Kerpatenko, Керпатенко Юрій Леонідович, was murdered by Russian soldiers for refusing to perform in an orchestra performance hosted by the Russian in Kherson Oblast.
The Russians are well on their way to making themselves the Nazis of the early 21st Century. And I do mean the Russians, not Putin. Just as the crime of Nazi Germany have tainted the Germans ever since, so will the crimes of the Putinist taint Russia, lest it do something to stop them from carrying on.
October 18, 2022
Russia has hit Kyiv with numerous suicide drones, part of an overall missile and drone attack on Ukrainian population centers.
More and more Russia of 2022 actions like Germany of 1939-1945.
Ethnic tensions among Russian recruits resulted in Tajik soldiers killing Russian compatriots in Belogorod. Their commander had insulted Islam and claimed the invasion of Ukraine a holy war.
This is interesting in that Russia has rapidly reached a state of demoralization within its Army which has surpassed that experienced by the United States during the Vietnam War and which should be a sign that its army may simply come apart.
October 19, 2022
Iran
A Persian edition of the British newspaper The Telegraph ran an article on how to use handguns. It must be noted that given the UK's position on firearms, that's rather ironic.
Protests are spreading and children are now included in them. Factions appear to be developing in the government.
Russo Ukrainian War
It has been confirmed that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are in Crimea as training cadre on Iranian drones, as their own country edges towards a revolution which would leave them as permanent guests of Putin's regime.
The last two days, the Russians have been targeting Ukrainian infrastructure with missile and drone strikes.
The Russians are evacuating Kherson.
October 21, 2022
Conor Kennedy, the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, is apparently just back from the war after having served in the Ukrainian Legion.
By his own account, his time in the war was fairly short, although he reports that he liked being a soldier.
The Russians are withdrawing from Kherson. It is believed that they may attempt to blow up a substantial dam in the region in order to cover their withdrawal.
October 22, 2022
Russia is trying to evacuate civilians from Kherson while also pouring in conscripts, fodder for the cannons.
October 24, 2022
From The Pilar interview with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I:
The Russian-Ukraine War is a conflict largely between Eastern Orthodox Christians. How do you feel about this as the spiritual leader of the world’s Eastern Orthodox Christians?
The ongoing war waged by Russia into the sovereign territory of Ukraine has weighed heavily on our mind and heart in recent months. It is true that it has been characterized as Orthodox fratricide, although the consequences have reached many more people, including Ukrainian Catholics as well as other Christian and religious believers, and the repercussions have surely been felt throughout the world.
What is still more painful to us is the fact that the Patriarchate of Moscow has stooped to the level of submitting to political ambitions of the Russian Federation, even endorsing and seemingly blessing this cruel invasion and unjustifiable bloodshed. We have repeatedly condemned the aggression and violence, just as we have fervently and fraternally appealed to the Patriarch of Moscow that he separate himself from political crimes, even if it means stepping down from his throne.
October 25, 2022
Myanmar
The government launched an airstrike on a celebration by the Kachin Independence Organization in the northern state of Kachin, killing at least 80 individuals.
The air force is equipped principally with Russian and Chinese aircraft.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian diplomats have been yapping about Ukraine preparing to use a "dirty bomb", which it isn't. The fact that they're doing this, however, is raising a lot of speculation about the purpose of this Kremlin story. Something is going on.
It's now clear the recent annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia has caused a split in the Kremlin, with some Russian figures reaching out to the west to try to start negotiations.
October 25, cont.
The US has been hitting Al Shabaab targets in Somalia, including one earlier this week. The one earlier this week was in support of Somali National Army forces.
October 30, 2022
Expanding the drone war, Ukrainian naval drones hit a Russian cruiser yesterday. Russia called off the grain deal in retaliation.
The drone attack was by a group of drones, showing how naval war is rapidly evolving. Effectively, such vessels take the place of PT boats, when PT boats were still viable.
General Alexander Lapin has been relieved of his command of the central area Russian forces in Ukraine.
At least where I live, the World Series, being run on Fox, is featuring a television commercial opposing US aid to Ukraine in the current war.
November 2, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
The Wagner Group is attempting to recruit fromer Afghan National Army refugee commandos who have taken refuge in Afghanistan. They are resistant to recruitmant, but fear being deported to Afghanistan.
According to the NYT, Soviet commanders recently discussed the topic of the use of nuclear weapons. This without Putin.
This is probably not cause for undue alarm, but it is cause for alarm. Americans might wish to recall that this occured in our military in the 50s and 60s, and it was politicians that percluded their use by frustrated commanders.
North Korea
North Korea, the diapered baby of nations, fired 23 missles into the sea this week.
It's hard to know why this isolated Stalinist theme park does these things, other than to get attention. Whatever it is, it doesn't work. Indeed, the Communist Clown State risks somebody taking it seriously at which point its ongoing existance, or at least that of its leadership, stands to become iffy.
November 3, 2022
Uniting both of the topics above, North Korea is supplying artillery shells to Russia.
Yesterday it launched an ICBM over Japan.
November 8, 2022
Ukranian President Zelensky expressed an openess to peace talks with Russia, on Ukrainian terms, those being:
One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again
This is not insignificant, although its likely to be dismissed as being so. At least the condition of war crimes trials is likely to be bargained away. This may be an actual bid to open talks, done with Western backing.
Where it would lead is another matter. Maybe Ukrainian territorial integrity, but combined with a promise not to join NATO.
November 9, 2022
While there are fears it may be a ruse, the Russians appear to be withdrawing from Kherson in advance of a Ukrainian offensive.
Do so is wise in light of their inability to defend it, but also telling. Kherson was taken early in the current war and Ukraine will soon advance back to the Dneipr.
November 10, 2022
The United States estimates that both Russia and Ukraine has sustained over 100,000 casualties in the current war.
Note, that's casualties, not deaths.
November 11, 2022
The Ukrainians are in Kherson and will very soon have retaken the complete left bank fo the Dnipr. This is an epic Russian defeat, and the Ukrainians will be in striking distance of Crimea.
Prior Related Threads:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Seven
Monday, October 3, 2022
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Seven
September 1, 2022
Sasha, age 9, with prosthetic giving the Ukrainian trident salute. She lost her arm due to a Russian attack.Whatever Russia's excuses for invading a neighboring country that doesn't wish to be part of it may be, taking off the arms of children as part of the cause is beyond any excuse. Live URL Link from: https://twitter.com/DefenceU
Russian propaganda is attempting to portray Ukraine's long anticipated offensive has having already failed, which it has not.
The Ukrainian government, in contrast, is observing operational silence, and requesting that media sources abstain from predicting Ukrainian moves.
September 2, 2022
- Afghanistan
The Taliban has arrested a woman for defamation for accusing her husband, the former Taliban interior minister, of forced marriage and rape.
The charge by the entity which the United States allowed to take power due to Donald Trump's Doha agreement followed by our withdrawal under President Biden was based on the Taliban position that nobody is allowed to defame the Taliban.
September 2, cont
Israel struck a Syrian runway yesterday.
September 3, 2022
- China/Taiwan
The United States is selling $1,100,000,000 in arms to Taiwan
September 5, 2022
- Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainians liberated Vysokopilla in Kherson Oblast. Gains were also made in the Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainians have had a news blackout on their operations, and it appears clear that the announced successes are just part of a collection of wider successes they have not yet felt comfortable in publicly stating.
September 6, 2022
Russia has postponed a referendum on Kherson joining Russia for "security reasons".
September 7, 2022
Russia is getting ready to purchase rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.
The fact that Russia is in the position of buying this sort of ordinance suggest that it is either seriously depleted its stocks of the same, or that it is worried about doing so and seeking to use up newly purchased stores so as to have a reserve ammunition supply for other contingencies, real or imagined.
Ukraine retook territory near Kharkiv.
September 9, 2022
While it's not at all clear what's going on, it suddenly seems to be the case that the Ukrainians are advancing all over the front. Fighting has been hard in Kherson, but there are reports today of advancing in the north and the center, with some of these reports coming from Russian sources.
It's too early to really predict what's going on, but if this keeps up, the Russians are in a very bad spot.
September 10, 2022
What seemed to be promising local advances a couple of days ago is developing into open field running by the Ukrainians, who are now outsmarting and outfighting the Russians darned near everywhere.
Ukraine has retaken Izium in the Kharkiv region, with the Russians openly retreating and admitting as much. This region of Ukraine wasn't even imagined to be the focus of what is turning out to be an effective broad front offensive. They're closing on Sievierodonetsk, whose loss in June was regarded as a major Ukrainian defeat. Some reports had the Russians deploying helicopters to intercept their own fleeing men as they attempted, and failed, to reinforce Izium.
It's still too early to tell, but things are beginning to take on an appearance of a systemic Russian collapse.
September 11, 2022
Situation as of September 11, 2022. By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
Further reports now reveal that the Russian withdrawal from Izium is a disorderly route, with retreating troops mixing with an attempt to reinforce the southern Donbas. Ukraine has retaken Velikiy Burluk which puts them with 15 kilometers of the Russian border.
September 13, 2022
- Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia has suspended sending volunteer units into Ukraine, apparently being concerned that they are not dependable.
Ukraine is making advances in the Kherson Olbast.
29 additional municipalities have signed a petition asking Putin to resign, making the number 47.
- Armenia/Azerbaijan
The countries have fought two prior wars over areas they assert a right to control, with the last one going badly for Armenia. Yesterday there were clashes between their forces.
September 14, 2022
The Russians are engaging in some serious spin, acknowledging defeat in northern Ukraine while also attempting to blame anyone other than Putin.
Russian authorities in Crimea have urged their families to flee Crimea, and there have been home sales and family evacuations by Russian authorities there.
September 16, 2022
Pope Francis in interview on September 15 regarding providing weapons to Ukraine by third party powers:
This is a political decision which it can be moral, morally acceptable, if it is done under conditions of morality … Self-defence is not only licit but also an expression of love for the homeland,. . . Someone who does not defend oneself, who does not defend something, does not love it. Those who defend . . . love it.”
September 17, 2022
Ukrainian advances into territory that has been occupied by Russia has revealed evidence of torture and murder by the Russians.
Putin has threatened increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for Ukrainian partisan attacks on Russian property in the territory occupied by Russia, taking a page, more or less, out of Hitler's book, to the extent he's not already operating from it. He might want to skip to the last chapter and see how that worked out for Hitler.
Ukraine is warning of false flag operations in Russian occupied areas over the next few days.
September 18, 2022
Ukrainian troops continue to advance in the north.
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
September 21, 2022
A long feared mobilization of Russian forces may be starting to occur in the wake of recent Russian defeats.
What's held Russia back from full mobilization, a step urged by Russian milbloggers and some parliamentarians, isn't known, but it may be the fear that Russian reservists just won't show up, or that the move will spark large scale discontent.
300,000 reservists will be called into active Russian service.
Putin also vaguely threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues its efforts to reclaim its territory.
And Putin is also holding "referendums" in the territory which Russia occupies nearly immediately, which will have the guaranteed result of resulting in Russian annexation of the same.
This step takes the world deeper into the war, not further from it. Essentially, Putin is placing Russia in a position in which it will be committing its reserves to an effort which will now be claiming to defend its own territory. Putin, and maybe Russia itself, will not be able to back out of this, and Ukraine and the rest of the non toady world will not be able to recognize it.
It'll be interesting to see what the mobilization accomplishes. It's effectively a massive admission of Russian military weakness. Russia has the numbers, but the numbers haven't worked in their favor so far. With discontent on the war growing inside of Russia, Putin may be going down the same path as Czar Nicholas II.
September 22, 2022
It now appears that the Russian call up of reservists shall be in stages and will not have an immediate effect on the war in Ukraine, as long as Ukraine continues to act swiftly. That is, the impact shall not be for many months.
While at the 300,000 level, this should raise some questions on whether the call-up is to offset losses. It really isn't clear what Russia's combat loss has been.
Russia, like many other countries, only requires a year of service for conscripts. While this practice is common, for the most part it leaves those trained in that fashion with incomplete military skills that wane fairly quickly. Called up reservist, therefore, are likely to need months of training if they're to be combat worthy troops, although Russia has certainly seemed to be willing to commit troops with less than adequate combat skills.
The British Ministry of Defense has stated that Russia has run out of willing volunteers.
Protests in Russia resulted in 1,200 arrests. Reports have held that flights out of the country have received an enormous boost as men eligible to be called into service have sought flights out.
September 23, 2022
Russia's partial mobilization is spawning domestic discontent and protests, which in turn has caused the Russians to conscript protesters as part of its reaction. Rather obviously, the tactic of conscripting those bold enough to protest against the war isn't likely to produce combat worthy troops. Indeed, at some point, it has the effect of arming and training those who are likely to turn their guns on their government.
Russia has also gone beyond calling trained reservists into service in other ways, now conscripting men who have never served and actually, in at least one instance, using a press-gang university on students to drag them directly from classes for services, something directly contrary to a statement exempting students from this levy and a shocking reversion to very primitive conscription methods.
In response, some Russian federal regions are passing laws prohibiting reservists from leaving their places of permanent residence in order to attempt to keep men from fleeing service. Reports also indicate that the Russians are disproportionately conscripting non Russians.
All of this would suggest a Russia much more at trouble at home, and with much wider opposition to the war, than previously expected. The chances of building an effective replacement army under these circumstances is slight. Moreover, this must be obvious to Russia's allies, such as China, demonstrating the nation is rotting from the edifice.
September 28, 2022
Russia's sham elections were held in the last couple of days with the predictable results being that votes in the Russian occupied portions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk supposedly were overwhelmingly in favor of annexation into Russia. That will now occur within the next couple of days.
It won't end the war, certainly, but now Russia will have legal cover for deploying conscripts into the war. Conscription, however, is going very badly. Oddly enough, Russia is conscripting outright opponents to the war, which is not likely to result in willing soldiers.
Two undersea explosions occurred on the idled Nord Stream pipeline.
Accomplishing an underwater strike such as this would require some expertise to pull off and there are suspicions, not yet proven, that Russia itself did it. Ukraine has claimed just that. The hard thing to figure out, however, is what the goal of such an attack would be.
September 29, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are about to take Lyman and are generally advancing, although not necessarily rapidly, everywhere along the front.
Russian forces are now so depleted that they're being supplied with replacements out of the newly called up men who have very little training. In one instances of this that hit the news, a Russian commander informs his troops they'll be given a uniform, body armor, and a rifle, and nothing else, including no medical supplies.
The U.S. is providing an additional $1.1B in aid to Ukraine.
Additional leaks have been found in the Nord Stream pipeline, which is now more or less officially viewed as having been hit by sabotage. German sources feel the damage is irreparable although, due to subsequent pipeline construction elsewhere, the loss may not be as significant as it might at first appear.
The mystery of the destruction remains, given the illogic involved in hitting it. For the most part, most of the attention is focused on the Russians, but some conspiracy theorist of various stripes have accused the US, which certainly did not do it. U.S. right wing commentator Tucker Carson basically took the Russian line and suggested, if not outright stated, that the U.S. was responsible for the act, and on the same day, Donald Trump absurdly offered to attempt to broker a peace. Not too surprisingly, loyal Trump rank and file accolades praised the former President's ridiculous offer and some have adopted the absurd U.S. did it thesis.
Iraq/Iran
The Iranian air force struck Kurdish targets in Iraq in retaliation for Kurdish support of Iranian women protestors.
The protests in Iran broke out after a young woman was killed after Kurdish Iranian Mahsa Amini died in police detention after being taken into custody for wearing her hajib incorrectly. Iran has religious police that enforce the Iranian interpretation of Islam's religious behavior rules, something that is not unique to Iran in the Islamic world. Women in Iran have chaffed for years under the strict rules applied in Iran and have now engaged in days of protests over the event. Protestors have openly defied the rules in their protests, and some have now called for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
At the same time, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been absent from the public, fueling speculation that he may not be able to return to his duties following bowel surgery in early September.
September 30, 2022
NATO declared the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines sabatage and warned that it would regard any attacks upon the infrastructure of its member states as an attack upon the member nations.
Ukrainian forces have enveloped Lyman.
October 1, 2022
Russia declared itself to have annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia yesterday. In his speech he engaged in nuclear saber rattling.
Ths move grossly complicates finding a peaceful solution to the war as Russia, which is losing, will now claim that its defending its own territory even though it will be largely alone in the world in recognizing its claims. Putin will not be able to give up ground he's annexed, so at this point the war can largely only really end with Putin deposed.
The current borders in Europe, it might be noted, are those that largely came into existance post World War Two. Ukraine's post 1917 borders were larger than the current ones by a signficant extent:
By Spiridon Ion Cepleanu - History Atlases available., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17831314
As the map above demonstrates, the real territorial growth of Ukraine was at the expense of Poland, post Second World War, but that change also featured the Soviets expelling Poles to the west, and in what is now Poland, expelling Germans also to the west. And the territory Ukraine aquired at that time was in fact largely claimed by Ukrainians in 1918. Indeed, that region of Ukraine had been fought over between the two countries, with the Poles also seeking to claim quite a bit of land to its post 1918 eastern boundaries. The only signficant part of modern post Soviet collapse Ukraine that had not been part of Ukraine until after World War Two is Crimea, which traditionally had neither a Ukrainian or Russian population, something the Russians changed through heavy migration into the region. Ukraine did claim it, however, in 1917.
Ukraine did claim lands much to the east of its current boundaries following 1917, and indeed even much further to the east of what this map shows based on Ukrainian settlements of Russian regions to the east.
While it won't do it, Ukraine would have just about as much right to annex the territories it lost to the Soviet Union as its own as Russia does to do the reverse.
Russia is also blaming the US for the Nord Stream gas severance event, a baseless conspiracy theory. Russia is the nation most likely to have sabataged the line.
October 1, 2022
The Russians have withdrawn from Lyman.
Below, by the way, is a map that's linked in to its original source showing the percentages of the vote in current Ukraine that voted for independence from Russia in 1991.
As shown, even Crimea had over 50% of its population wanting out of Russia.
It's also worth remebering that the newly free Ukraine was a nuclear state. It gave those weapons up following a Western promise to guaranty its freedom.
October 3, 2022
It appears that the Ukrainians may have broken through at Kherson.
While, once again, its too early to tell, this is beginning to have the apperance of being a generalized Russian collapse.
Last prior edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five
Why part five so soon?
Well, lots of reasons, including that these threads are filling up quickly.
But beyond that, a big one is that it appears that the war is definitely taking a new turn.
The Russian offensive has been an embarrassing failure in numerous ways. Thought of as a large scale armored blitzkrieg through inadequate Ukrainian forces, in fact it was held back everywhere and slowed down enormously where it wasn't. Ukrainian forces proved more than a match for Russian ones, which have proven to be largely inept and badly equipped. They've now been thrown back in the north and out of the that region of the country, with Russian units abandoning great masses of equipment that Russia will not be able to rapidly replace. Such material replacement as will be forthcoming, moreover, will simply be with the demonstrably bad equipment that's been failing in Ukraine.
The thought is that Russia will not concentrate its offensive in the East and Southeast, where it has already had a measure of success. Perhaps it's now aiming for a more limited goal.
Numerous Russian generals have been killed in the war, and as part of its renewed effort, it seems to be reshuffling its command structure. As noted herein, the other day:
Alexander Dvornikov, age 60, has been placed in commanad of the Russian effort. He has prior combat command experience from Syria. It is widely speculated that the Russians shall commences a renewed offensive in the east to consolidate their gains there.
Dvornikov has been known as the Butcher of Syria. That may be telling as well.
Russian troops withdrawing from the north have left a swath of murder and violence perpetrated against civilians. We've already cataloged that in a prior thread. With each passing day, it grows worse and gets harder to ignore. The missile strike on a train station the other day featured a missile with the words "for the children" written on it. In many areas, Russian troops seem to have murdered military aged men and raped women on a wide scale. This report surfaced from a Ukrainian journalist just the other day:
At least 25 women and girls, as young as 14, were raped by Russians in one basement in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant. Russian soldiers said “they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children."
Since the Second World War, the debate has existed on whether the Red Army was a professional army or simply an armed mob. To at least some degree, it was both, getting better doctrinaly as the war ended. But at that same time, the Red Army committed the largest example of mass rape in modern history. Somewhat ignored after the war, the debate has always existed if this was an example of a breakdown in discipline or institutional revenge.
Whatever it was, it seems to have become institutionalized in the Russian army, which is made up of conscripts from the bottom of Russian society. Whether or not the Red Army was a gang of undisciplined, brutalized ignorant peasants, the modern Russian army seems to be made up of undisciplined, poorly trained, badly equipped, lowlifes.
The Ukrainian Army, in contrast, has gone from amateur to Western proficient in a little under a decade. It may very well beat the Russian army if it's given the equipment to do it, and right now that means armor and artillery. The Ukrainians themselves are not giving up anywhere, and even now the fighting goes on in occupied Mariupol.
Whatever has happened here, it's clear that Putin is a mentally deranging cancer in Russia. The Russians have to be defeated before that can be addressed by his own people. We should give them whatever is necessary to achieve that goal.
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Potential use of chemical weapons by the Russians is being investigated in Mariupul. It's inportant to note that this has not been established.
The Pentagon is ramping up the effort to supply weapons to Ukraine, with the US already being the largest supplier. Reflecting the effort to date to supply Ukraine with Soviet pattern weapons, a cache of Mi-17 helicopters in US inventories is being supplied. Humveh trucks are being supplied. Artillery is being supplied. Switchblade drones have already been supplied, and now Predator or Reaper drones, or both, appear to be slated.
The US clarified that it is not opposed to Polish Mig 29s being supplied to Ukraine, but only to their being flown from a US base in Germany directly to Ukraine.
Poland, for its part, is supplying up to 100 T-72s to Ukraine, a very substantial contribution, although as we've learned so far in this war, Russian armor is junk. Of note, at least some of the Polish T72s are T72M1Rs, an upgraded variant with modern sights.
April 13, cont:
According to reports coming out today, Sweden will seek to join NATO in June, and it's likely Finland will apply around the same time.
This is really an amazing development. Both nations have maintained an officially neutral stance since World War Two, although not for the same reasons. Sweden has due to a traditional defense posture which allowed it to stay out of World War Two. Finland, of course, was invaded by the Soviet Union prior to World War Two and then became an Axis ally in an unsuccessful effort to recapture and keep the territory it has only recently given up to the Soviets. Its neutrality was enforced due to the bargain that it cut with the Soviet Union in order to remain an independent state.
Finland must feel that its security can no longer be guaranteed by its "Finlandization" arrangement, and Sweden must be nervous about Russian aspirations in the neighborhood as well. Additionally, in spite of being officially neutral, Sweden has long armed itself with NATO compliant standards and obviously assumed that it its territory was invaded NATO would come to its aid. With a longstanding position emphasizing global cooperation and peace, it must also feel that modern Russia has become a threat to its ideals.
April 14, 2022
The Russian Navy's Black Sea Flag Ship Moskva was hi in a Ukrainian missile strike, although the Russians deny that and attribute its current problems to an ammunition explosion, and is being withdrawn from service for repairs, maybe.
The Moskva.
It could be worse than that, as it is admitted the ship capsized. Assuming it is still afloat, it could be perhaps righted, or perhaps towed, but this is a major Russian loss. The Russian Navy reported it sinking.
The Moskva was the ship which Ukrainian border guards on Snake Island told to the new famous line, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" ("Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй").
Two Neptune missiles apparently struck the ship, with the same being launched from a Bayraktar TB2 drone. The Neptune is a Ukrainian designed missile that just entered service last year. The drone is a highly effective Turkish designed and manufactured pilotless aircraft.
The 40-year-old ship had been built for the Soviet Navy and was regarded as heavily armored. The Ukrainian missile strike on it suggest that no Russian ship is safe from attack, meaning that while the Russian navy is obviously free to dominate the surface of the Black Sea, its effective control of it is contested at this point, a significant factor given the Russian strategy of taking the southeastern Ukrainian coast.
Yesterday was also the date of first issuance of a Ukrainian postage stamp dedicated to the men on Snake Island, depicting a border guard giving a Russian ship the middle finger salute.
The strike on the Moskva yesterday was either the height of irony, or exceedingly well planned and executed, given the date. The Moskva appeared on the stamp.
April 14, cont.
And the Moskva sank.
April 16, 2022
Russia demanded that nations quit supplying weapons to Ukraine and vaguely threatened severe consequences if they do not.
Ukraine's president speculated that Russia may use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
There are concerns that the Moskva may have housed nuclear weapons.
Ukrainians report that Russia failed to mobilize 26,000 reservists who evaded service to avoid being in the war.
Pope Francis proposed having Ukrainian and Russian families together in Good Friday services, which brought objections from Ukrainians mad at the implied suggestion of reconciliation, which of course it was. Services were modified at the Stations of the Cross so that a Russian woman and a Ukrainian women jointly held the cross at the 13th Station.
All of this brought objections from the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, part of the Catholic Church, and the Latin Rite in Ukraine in varying tones. The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church called the actions "untimely". A Latin Rite bishop termed them incomprehensible. They were neither, but it does show how views have evolved rapidly in Ukraine.
April 17, 2022
Russian Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov was killed in action, the eight Russian general to lose his life in the Russian assault on Ukraine.
April 18, 2022
While it will take some time to sort out, it appears that Russia has launched a largescale offensive in the east.
April 19, 2022
Reports are forthcoming of a large Russian offensive in the East, but details are so far fairly lacking.
Here's the situation map as of April 11, a little over a week ago:
April 11, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
And here's the current one.
April 18, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
Over the past week, the Ukrainian position in the East actually improved slightly.
One place where things have improved in an existential sense is Mariupol, where a remnant of Ukrainiain forces is still hanging on in spite of Russian surrender demands.
April 19, cont.
Russian actions in the Battle of the Donbas so far have been limited, but are expected to increase. The Ukrainian city of Kreminna has apparently been taken by the Russians.
April 20, 2022
NPR's State of Ukraine blog for this morning featured retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges.
The interview was surprising. In it, Hodges expressed optomism regarding the Ukrainian effort, and also discussed how the Seige of Mariupol demonstrated Russian ineptitude. He predicted the collapse of the Russian Federation within the next five years.
April 21, 2022
Coat of Arms for Mariupol.
Russian gains yesterday were minor. That's being attributed to probing, but there are other possible explanations. Mariupol still hadn't fallen.
Russia has publically declared that it will not storm the steel works where the defenders are holding out. Why Putin made this order public is subject to debate, but storming it would result in an outsized Russian loss and make the steel works, which has already taken on the character of the famed tractor works of Stalingrad, a Ukrainian symbol beyond that already obtained by the long and heroic defense.
Germany and the US are providing howitzers to Ukraine, with the Germans providing highly advanced 155 self propelled howitzers and the US providing 155 towed howitzers. Training of Ukrainian artillerymen is taking place outside of the country, in Europe.
One of the things of note here is that this means NATO powers are providing heavy weapons that are in NATO standard ammunition sizes, not Warsaw Pact sizes. They'll require Western logistical support to keep them in action. Additionally, this means Ukraine's military is now converting to NATO standards by default.
NATO logistical support has returned 20 Ukrainian aircraft to operational support.
Russia is planning political purges of its allies in the breakaway Donbas region for failing to produce military results. There are reports that it also is planning on conscripting Ukrainians for front line service, which will be a mistake if true. Libyan mercenaries are showing up in action, and in the Russian war dead.
A group of Ortodox bishops in communion with Moscow has demanded that Patriarch Kirill resign. The Patriarch has made statements supporting the Russian invasion which has angered elements of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine which retained communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.
The Russian Orthodox Church itself severed communion with the Greek Orthodox Metropolitan, who is regarded as being essentially the head of the Eastern Orthodox Church in some ways. This occured before the war when the Metropolitan recognized the Ukranian Orthodox Church as autocephalous. Since the start of the war the elements of Orthodoxy that had remained loyal to the Patriarch of Moscow have been rapidly moving away from Patriarch Kirill, who has already declared some of them to be in schism.
This has all brought into sharp focus some contemporary problems in Orthodoxy. The Russian Orthodox Church is the largest Orthodox Church, but here its head has seemingly been distinctly Russian. In the West, the Orthodox are moving away from national associations, recognizing that the day of national churches has essentially passed. In Ukraine, there have been calls for Kirill to condemn the invasion, which he has failed to do. This has revived notations that there are indications that Patriarch Kirill had an active KGB affiliation during the days of the Soviet Union, as did his predacessor Patriarch Alexy, the latter of which acknowledged that he had made compromises during the Soviet days that he thought necessary. Patriarch Alexy had asked for forgiveness, but Patriarch Kirill has not. The affiliation, to be clear, seems to have been in the case of churchmen of keeping the church in line so as to not become a threat to the state.
April 23, 2022
A Russian general made comments about the war providing access to Transnistria, a breakaway portion of Moldova, which have been widely interpreted as suggesting that this is the next stage of a Russian armed expansion, but careful analysis of it suggests that this is likely being misinterpreted.
Still, as I've noted here before, if I lead Moldova right now, which is Romanian in culture, I'd be petitioning Romania for annexation. Moldova only exists apart from Romania as Russia insists that it must.
The general did state that Russia wants to take full control of southern Ukraine.
A possible mass grave near Mariupol containg as many as 9,000 bodies was discovered through satellite imagry.
April 24, 2022
Contrary to what I'd guessed, and contrary to all military logic, Russian troops withdrawn from northern Ukraine are being redeployedin the East without rest, reorganization or refitting.
April 24, cont.
Two more Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine and a third wounded.
April 25, 2022
Ukraine hit Russian oil storage facilities today in Bryansk, Russia with drones. The strikes occured twelve hours ago and fires are still burning.
While it has not drawn much attention, the Russians have suffered a series of odd accidents in their infrastructure over the last few days.
April 26, 2022
The war in Ukraine is taking on a long range target characteristic. Russia hit feul and transportation targets with missles yesterday. Ukraine hit feul targets inside of Russia with something.
Something has been going on sabatogue wise inside of Russia as well. All sorts of industrial and transportation facilities have been suffering unexplained failures.
Ukrainian forces retaken territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum.
Acts of sabatogue against Russian related targets have been going on inside Transdniestria, the region of Moldova that broke away in support of, in essence, rejoining Russia. Attacking Moldova was referenced by a Russian general recently. Moldova convened its security council after a Russian language radio tower was attacked yesterday.
Gepard antiaricraft armor is being sent to Ukraine by Germany.
April 27, 2022
The Institute for the Study of War regards teh attacks in Transdniestria as Russian or Russian sympathetic false flag operations. Their speculation is that it has something to possibly do with an intended Russian attack on Odessa.
The Russians are cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, both of which have refused to pay in rubles. Poland has indicated that it has been working on an alternative supply of gas for years and its not concerned.
April 29, 2022
Russia is protecting its Black Sea ports from threats of underwater, probably frogmen, attacks with trained dolphins.
Russia has been attacking Kyiv with rockets.
The Canadian House of Commons declared Russia to be guilty of genocide.
May 2, 2022
Russia has begun to transition areas they occupy to the Ruble, an almost certain sign that they intend to incorporate them or to set up sham states.
Nancy Pelosi and Congressional Democrats were in Kyiv yesterday.
May 4, 2022
A Ukrainian offensive has pushed the Russians 40 km back from Kharkiv.
May 5, 2022
May 5, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
We posted the map today as it depicts the result of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the stalled nature of Russian offensives. The Ukrainians have not been gaining much ground, but they are gaining ground. The Russians are not.
May 7, 2022
A Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground and my push the Russians outside of artillery striking distance of the city shortly.
The Ukrainians hit the Russian ship Admiral Makarov with an anti-shipping missle.
May 8, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
May 8, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141
The Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground, with the Russians blowing down bridges as they retreat.
There are very strong indicators that the Russian government is set to make a series of declarations tomorrow on "Victory Day", the day commemorating the victory over Germany in World War Two. What these will be is not yet clear, but it seems clear that something will occur. Something almost has to given the place the day holds in Russian culture.
Afghanistan
The Taliban have returned to the policy of requiring all women in the country to wear burkas if possilbe, or at least wear clothing that reveals only their eyes.
That serves, of course, as a clear indicator the direciton the country is headed towards, or rather back towards.
May 10, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
Contrary to expectations, Russia's May 9 Victory Day was not marked by anything particularly noteworthy coming from Russia.
Reports now indicate that Russian troops are disobeying the orders of their officers and are firing on the tires of their own vehicles to prevent them from going into combat.
President Biden signed a Lend Lease law into effect.
May 11, 2022
Finland's coat of arms.
For the first time since 1945, Finland will abandon neutrality and join an alliance, that alliance being NATO.
This is a huge change in Finland's position and indeed in European strategic alignment.
May 13, 2022
The Russians are reportedly using semiconductors from kitchen appliances in military equipment now, as they have run out of an adequate supply of them due to sanctions.
Current Ukrainian offensive operations appear calculated to split Russian forces in Ukraine in two, basically right down the middle of their occupation. Reports hold that the Ukrainians have deployed new French acquired artillery in this effort.
A Russian soldier has appeared in a Ukrainian court on charges of war crimes.
Senator Rand Paul, a libertarian and fiscal conservative, has pushed Ukraine's military aid package that is presently in Congress into next week through a procedural move, essentially making himself the modern equivalent of America First Charles Lindbergh in a way. Paul, it might be noted, has endorsed Wyoming candidate Harriet Hageman, although his endorsement has been pretty much ignored locally.
Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin has indicated that supplying arms to Ukraine is morally legitimate under the Catholic Just War theory, albeit with the conditions of proportionality applying. Pope Francis has been very critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has discussed the war with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill. Indeed, that became news when Pope Francis stated that he had told the Patriarch to quit being "Putin's alter boy", which caused the Patriarch to give an alternative account of their discussion.
May 16, 2022
Ukranian troops advancing east from Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.
Russian losses have been so severe that it depleted its reserve manpower pool and is now making up replacement units by putting together depleted elements of other units, including private military companies. It's even resorted to putting paratroopers into depleted contract military companies, indicating a severe manpower crisis.
McDonald's is selling its stores in Russia and leaving the country.
Sweden will also be petitioning to join NATO, abandoning a position of neutrality held since the Napoleonic Wars.
May 17, 2022
Ukraine was allowed to evacuate its remaining forces from the Azoz steel plant in Mariupol, a remarkable concession from the Russians, who simply could not take it. This means, of course, that the Russians have finally taken Mariupol, which was a goal they have been working on nearly the entire war.
They will now attempt to reopen the port.
The British estimate that the Russians have lost 1/3d of their combat capacity in the war so far. By some independent analysis, they will be completely exhausted within thirty days. As the country is not without enemies, of its own making, it's an open question if they'll seek to make use of the destruction of the Russian army at some point.
Turkey has indicated it does not support the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO due to both countries' past harboring of Kurdish separatists.
Russian military bloggers, which up to now have been acting as apologists for the Russian army, have suddenly changed their tune and are reporting the army defeated. What impact this has in Russia itself is yet to be seen, but just like in the West, the country has a community of amateur military analysts who follow military affairs. The fact that they're not reporting critically on the performance of the Russian army and that it has been defeated in combat will have some sort of impact, up until they are shut down, which is probable.
Russian authorities are now in conflict with Russian collaborationist in some of the areas they occupy.
May 18, 2022
Ukraine announced it has downed 200 Russian aircraft in the war. Russian aircraft now often launch their weaons over Russian airspace rather than enter Ukrainian territory.
In a report Russian soldiers reported a commanding officer shooting his own non ambulatory wounded rather than try to move them.
Last Prior edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Four
Related threads:
Russo Ukrainian War Threads.
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