Showing posts with label Tom Lubnau. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Lubnau. Show all posts

Saturday, August 8, 2026

The 2026 Election, 18th Edition. Primary Voting Commences Edition. Vote like your future and that of your state depends on it, because it does, part two.

 


August 2, 2026

I wasn't going to do this, but the last thread just became too darned long and was creating havoc in the blog accordingly.

So, here we have our 18th edition for this season.  We'll abstain on predicting this one will run all the way until the primary, but the primary is only a little over two weeks away.

Here we note a very interesting item:

Joan Barron: Is A GOP Sea Change On The Way?

Phil Roberts, the legally trained University of Wyoming professor predicts that Harriet Hageman will lose.  That amounts to a prediction, without him saying so, that Sam Mead will win.

I sure hope he's right.

Hageman has been characterized by being nasty in public, while in the background she behaves more like a conventional Congressman.  Be that as it may, up until just a week ago or so she was a diehard Trump fan and in the category of enemies of public lands. When concerned Wyomingites wrote to her about their concerns on public land she basically called the stupid.

She needs to go.

A prediction if she does.  Wyoming "ranch girl" or no, she'll never come back. She owned a house in D.C. before she was even elected.

The author here notes that he voted last week.  And, we voted for:

Governor:  Barlow.

Senate:  Mead

House of Representatives:  Christensen.

Secretary of State:  Short.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Harshman

On people needing to go, Chuck Gray needs to depart politics, and preferably the state, as well.  Based on early rumors, that might well happen, but if it does, it looks like it may be Steve Friess who gains the state's seat in Congress.  Friess is seemingly really cutting into Gray's numbers.  

At the same time, it's pretty clear that Kevin Christensen is also rising.  Christensen is gaining the support of moderate Republicans and those concerned about public lands. Early on it was assumed these votes would go to Balow but Balow has really disappointed in this race to date, including making statements that would cut towards Trump when, as Barron has noted in her article, people even in Wyoming may be moving in the opposite direction.  I expected Balow to lead this race early on and hoped for her to replace Gray, but now I'm in the camp that has gone to Christensen.

August 4, 2026

A variety of odds and ends.

First, the real Republicans placed an add with Real Republican candidates in the CST:


I don't know much about some of these candidates, but do about others, or their opponents.  

Elissa Campbell is a one term incumbent who is being challenged by Pete Fox, a far right wing candidate who claims not be aligned with the Freedom Caucus but whom everyone pretty much is sure he is.  Julie Jarvis is also a one term incumbent who is being challenged by Jeanette Ward, a Chicago carpetbagger who is one of the original, and most extreme, WFC members who held the same seat for one term.

Engbretson is seeking to unseat extreme WFC landlord Bob Ide.  Ide obtained this seat several years ago by somehow unseating Drew Perkins.  Ide has been a disaster in terms of his extreme views.

Rob Hendry is a long time Wyoming local politician who lost his seat and is now seeking to take Lien's.  Hendry was a Natrona County Commissioner for several years before losing his seat.  Lien defeated long time legislator Tom Walters to obtain her seat in the last election, which was one in which the WFC did relatively well.

The CST also ran a copy of the ballot.

In other election news, Reid Rasner, who has released a flood of gadfly video shorts, hit on the Gabe Saint story.


This story was actually broken two years ago by The Laramie Reporter, who deserves credit for bringing it to light.
A rising figure within Wyoming’s far right engages regularly with white supremacist and antisemitic content
Somehow Rasner must have stumbled onto the story, but it's been out there all along and really should have been news as the underlying story is reprehensible  Whether Saint holds racist views or not I don't know, but he was flirting with websites that raise the question.  Some of the sites, moreover, are Francoist, which says a lot about the views the young man flirts with.

So does the fact that he recovered from being canned and brought Charlie Kirk to the University of Wyoming.  I've never been able to make up my mind about Kirk and of course Kirk's assassination means the final variant of Kirk is unknown to the world. But Kirk had entered the public sphere as an adherent of the Seven Mountains movement which has a distinct weltanschauung that most Americans would not share.  It's safe to assume, accordingly, that Saint is some sort of Christian Nationalist.

The fact that Saint survived being fired and went on to be Gray's campaign manager, while being a law student, says plenty about his drive, but it also says a lot about how a tiny independent news outlet really can't break a story nationwide.  If the story had been broken by WyoFile or the CST, Saint would be done for, and he should be, or at least he should be on a long hiatus.

The fact that Saint ended up as Gray's campaign manager says something about Gray.  Either he isn't paying attention to things at all, or he doesn't mind the association Saint has with movements that he's dabbled at looking at.  Or he's satisfied that Saint doesn't really hold such views.

I'll note that I've heard Saint talk in an informal occasion where his guard was really down on one occasion.  Given that, my impression is really unfair, but he came across as an arrogant asshole.  On that occasion he was dissing the professors of the University of Wyoming as being wholly liberal and seemed to literally despise the education he was receiving.  At the same time, however, I'll note that he was under the impression, inaccurately, of being the only one in the group, a rural crowd, to have ever attended university and arrogance amongst the young is pretty common.

One of Gray's competitors is Steve Friess, whom Republican insider Susan Stubson has an article about:

(OPINION) Plenty of Jack

Stubson is correct, Friess is basically flooding the zone with money and this is a test of whether, basically, a candidate in Wyoming can buy a seat in Congress.  That well trod road is the same one that Gray managed to trod to his current position as Secretary of State, albeit barely.  

Friess flyers who up in my mailbox constantly and the last one was really telling.  It promised to pass the SAVE Act. 

Any candidate promising to pass the SAVE Act shouldn't be voted on for anything ever as its wholly anti democratic.  It also promises to "Buck mail-in voter fraud" which it claims will help prevent liberals from stealing the election.

There's no threat liberals are going to steal an election, but the MAGA GOP is trying to steal the 2026 election right now.

Freiss was the target of a black money mailer by some group styling itself the Hometown Action Network.  It's shows Friess being bucked off a horse and notes he's not local.  It doesn't come out for anyone, however. We'd have to presume it's pro Gray, who nobody has ever seen with a horse.  

Indeed, of those running for this position who are the top contenders, Gray, Friess, Christensen, Rasner, and Balow, we know by far the least about Gray.  Indeed, hardly anything at all is known about him personally.

Neither Gray nor Friess deserve a vote.

Rasner, of course, will receive very few.  His candidacy is doomed and he's sort of faded from view.  I did see one large Rasner sign the other day, but it's safe to say at this point his political career in Wyoming is over.  What he's serving to do right now is to carve votes away from Gray, and that is a public service.  The question is whether those votes carved away end up going to Friess or a better candidate.

Going back to Albany County, a former Democratic candidate for the US House is running for a seat as an Albany County Commissioner.

Ben-David promises a scientific approach in bid for Albany County Commission seat

A climate change activist and former researcher, Merav Ben-David said water security is her top priority. She is one of four Democrats competing to be one of the party’s two nominees.

August 5, 2026

This notes an interesting feature of this election, that being politicians taking more credit for something than their entitled to, or backing something that isn't controversial at all.

First the backing:

This is the flipside of the false accusation:

Barlow Says Attack Ads On Sex Changes And Illegal Immigrants Aren't True

And then there's the bold position on a non issue.  Every single candidate claims to support the 2nd Amendment.  From Wyoming?  D'uh.

The campaign propaganda is therefore really not helpful.  Some PAC is pointing out that Friess is a rich carpetbagger. Well, so is Gray. So was Chapman.

Still, some things are revealing. Friess notes he'd back the SAVE Act.  That means he's in favor of reducing democracy.  Friess, Gray and Degenfelder would all propose marriage to Trump.  

People are looking beyond these.  Yesterday a really conservative Republican I know, and a thoughtful one, told me he was supporting Giralt  I'm not, I'm going for Christensen, as are two other people I personally know.  

August 6, 2026

Rep. Jayme Lien called WYDOT to complain about the placement of Rob Hendry sign.  Rob noted it with bemusement and posted a photo of a questionable Lien sign in terms of placement.

Chuck Gray was apparently his recently spastic self in a debate for the House.  He posted thereafter a peppy owning the libs post, but he's coming across as an ass, as he is one.  His interview by a Cowboy State Daily female reporter, which is on video, is really a prime example.  That alone would preclude his election in a decent society.

All indications are that Christensen is really moving up.

Bob Ide called Lisa Engebretsen's supporters "Camo Clad Leftists"

Ide runs around dressing like a cowboy, and apparently has some ranching background and some cattle, but he's landlord.  The Camo Clad Engebretsen supporters are local outdoorsmen who are awake to Ide's grab the Federal land stand.

Ide needs to leave the legislature.  Better yet, he can give up on being a landlord and head out into the sticks and punch cows full time.  He already has the clothes and everything.

This is the first time, by the way, I've seen a politician accuse sportsmen of being "leftists".  

August 7, 2026

One to close the week out on:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 7. The jackass in a tin barn edition.

We weren't really ready to start a new one of these, but Chuck Gray has been in such rare form recently as it starts to look like he's going to lose in ten days and his dreams of a carpetbagging political career be crushed, that it mandates it.

Gray, as Secretary of State, sits on a variety of state boards and has been using that position to attempt to advance his campaign for higher office, any higher office, all along.  Generally in the global warming is a fib camp, he at one time was okay with development projects of all types but now is anti "woke wind".  Lots of people don't like the viewscape and land use aspect of wind and solar farms, and he's hoping to tap into that dislike, but he's such a disagreeable pissant he can't seem to say it that way.  Nor can he explain his prior positions.

The real gem in this is that he almost voted to preclude use of an access road to a power substation that provides power to farmers on the basis that it might receive electrical power from solar farms or wind farms or provide power to data centers.


When the State treasurer noted that this meant, he changed his vote, but had to blame the whole thing on somebody else.

Data centers are now big in the news around here, and for good reason.  Gray is opposing them as he figures it's good politics.  Put a gigantic strip mine in over the same area, and he'd be all for it.  It's difficult to tell from one moment to the next if Republican candidates this year are members of the Flat Earth Society or Greenpeace.

Gray is particularly disgusting.  He's consistently rude and nasty.  It's difficult to understand why anyone would vote for him, unless they're really duped.

On Chuck, columnist Tom Lubnau came out with a column belatedly endorsing Steve Friess.  The column is a good one.

I like Lubnau but there's no way on earth I'm voting for Steve Friess.  Friess is higher grade of carpetbagger Trump suck up than Chuck Gray, who is simply vile, but they're cut essentially from the same cloth.  Friess, granted, isn't a jackass, but that's the main difference between the two of them.

Lubnau admits he had another favorite but started to be swayed by the big mass endorsement of Friess last week by a collection of Republican figures.  He'd earlier criticized Friess campaign which he criticized as "anyone but Chuck", and there is some of that view going around.  Quite frankly, I can say that anyone would be better than Gray.  But that means he abandoned a better candidate at least in part because he through Friess is the second in line contender.

We're not so sure of that.  It appears that Christensen has been coming up like crazy.  He's the only Republican whose views actually alight with most of the state's voters and the only one who has a background common to Wyomingites.  

He might be able to pull it off.

August 8, 2026

Trump backed U.S. Rep Andy Ogles, Tennessee, went down in defeat to Charlie Hatcher, the Tennessee Commissioner of Agriculture from 2018-2025.

Trump backed Navy Veteran Amir Hassan lost his primary bid Michigan's 8th Congressional District to Thomas Smith, who had actually earlier dropped out of the race.

Hmm. . . .

News reports have shown that Friess, Rasner and Gray have spent massive amounts in their bid for the House.  Friess has now spent more than Rasner, who has spent a huge amount.

Frankly, the expenditures here justify not voting for any of these people in no small part because, in relative terms, very little of the money comes from inside of Wyoming and quite a bit of it is self funding.  A person who would spend $1M or more in family money for an office that pays what these do, isn't acting prudently and won't once they take office, if they do.

Last edition:

The 2026 Election, 17th Edition. Primary Voting Commences Edition. Vote like your future and that of your state depends on it, because it does.*

Thursday, June 25, 2026

The 2026 Election, 13th Edition. The choosing lanes edition.



June 19, 2026

The mere fact that somebody is running against Bear, one of the most notable of the WFC, is a good thing.  Here's hoping that Bear is solidly and permanently defeated.

John Bear, One Of The Freedom Caucus’ Most Powerful Members, Has A Challenger

And something that should be obvious, but for all the political theater:
June 20, 2026

Ousted UW dean to challenge Freedom Caucus incumbent

Cam Wright seeks House 46’s Republican nomination. Known to many in Laramie as UW’s former engineering dean, Wright is involved in ongoing litigation against the university.

June 24, 2026

Three Democratic Socialist won primaries in New York City in Democratic Congressional primaries, causing pundits to somewhat freak out.

Frankly the fascist nature of the current GOP is making this inevitable. The WFC is, for example, every bit as radical as New York's Democratic Socialist and Trump is governing as a dictator to the extent that the courts don't prohibit him, so the rise of the left wing within the Democratic Party isn't too surprising.

While the right freaks out about New York City, here locally the GOP demands you swear your loyalty.

‘These are purity tests’: Driskill, Neiman talk platform allegiance in political heavyweight matchup

I've seen one candidate, a carpetbagging far right winger from Wisconsin, already put his "Meine Ehre Heisst Treue" tag on his posters.

On a ballot initiative.

Coalition demands records on tax initiative; Gray’s office calls claims false


An interesting development in the statewide races:

At this point, what's particularly interesting is who has signed, and who has not.

The entity it self has some every notable names behind it. According to their website:

Justice Keith Kautz (Retired Wyoming Supreme Court, Evangelical Leader Southeast Wyoming)

Diana Enzi (Long time Wyoming activist and advocate for Christ from Gilette Wyoming)

Jim Neiman (Business, civic and Christian leader from Hullett, Wyoming)

Michael Evers (Business Leader and Episcopal Priest from Sheridan Wyoming)

Evan Simpson (Business Leader and Religious Leader for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints from Star Valley, Wyoming)

Frank Moore (Business Leader and active in the Catholic community in Douglas, Wyoming)

Diemer True (Business, civic and Christian leader from Casper Wyoming)

Ron Rabou (Farmer, author and motivational speaker and leader in Christian community and member of Converge Worldwide from Albin, Wyoming)

Patty Micheli (Rancher and Religious leader and teacher for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Fort Bridger, Wyoming).

Mike Leman (Legislative Liaison for the Dioceses of Cheyenne, Deacon at St. Patrick’s Catholic Church in Casper, Wyoming)

The text of the pledge is:

The candidates who have signed the pledge, which you can do on their website, are, so far:

GOVERNOR

Eric Barlow
Governor

Megan Degenfelder
Governor

U.S. SENATE

Jimmy Skovgard
U.S. Senate

U.S. HOUSE

Jillian Balow
U.S. House of Representatives

Bo Biteman
U.S. House of Representatives

Kevin Christensen
U.S. House of Representatives

STATE SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

Steve Harshman
State Superintendent of Public Instruction

SENATE

Evie Brennan
Senate District 31

Ogden Driskill
Senate District 2

Ronald McCleary
Senate District 5

Marcia Neumiller
Senate District 27

Lauren Schoenfeld
Senate District 5

Wendy Schuler
Senate District 15

HOUSE

Dalton Banks
House District 26

Elizabeth Bingham
House District 17

Ronda Boller
House District 52

Peter Boyer
House District 58

Jessica Crowder
House District 43

Christopher Dresang
House District 35

Erin Edwards
House District 41

Justin Fornstrom
House District 10

David Hill
House District 50

Lloyd Larsen
House District 54

Martha Lawley
House District 27

Matthew Legler
House District 25

Jayme Lien
House District 38

Roland Luehne
House District 28

Myca Sturtevant
House District 29

Shane Swett
House District 13

Art Washut
House District 36

John Wetzel
House District 25

JD Williams
House District 2

Paul Wing
House District 11

Bill Winney
House District 20

COUNTY

Macey Moore
Converse County Commissioner

COUNTY PARTY

Michael Evers
Sheridan County GOP Precinct Person- Precinct 2-5

My guess is that after the article, some who haven't signed, or who aren't aware of it, will sign or will feel compelled to sign.

Notably, in the House, the big money candidates, Gray, Freiss and Rasner have not signed.  Gray's an entire political career has been based on being a lying asshole, so this puts him in a spot.  When he gets up at night and stubs his toes he blames it on left wing radical communist Marxist socialist fascist monarchist podiatrist, so that would take a major part of his repertoire out of play and actually make him live part of his faith.  Rasner has gone full comedic sideshow at this point, but it would take the extreme out of the candidate whose been the most extreme.  It probably wouldn't impact Freiss who hasn't attacked his opponents, but who is, in a very nice way, relying upon "I'll bring jobs to Wyoming of a type that I've worked at myself because I believe you dumb twits want to exist in the imaginary 1950s".

It's also interesting that only one Senatorial candidate, Skovogard, has signed it.

June 25, 2026

Interesting development.

Rasner didn't appear recently in Casper's weekly candidate forum when it invited the house contestants to speak.  That's odd as Casper is his home town.  Now this.

And this:

The postmaster general, David Steiner, said on Wednesday that under a proposed rule, his agency would not deliver mail ballots in states that decline to hand over voter data.

This is illegal.

Last edition:

The 2026 Election, 12th Edition. The late on ramp edition.