B-24 Liberator over Polesti in Operation Tidal Wave during World War Two, the low level American bombing campaign over the Standard Oil refineries in Romania. The Axis power discounted the threat of American bombing, believing that the US would never bomb something that the Americans owned. Vladimir Putin made the same calculation of the entire Western world's dependence on Russian oil.
March 8, 2022
We start with a couple of links to other threads, and the prior edition of this thread.
From:
March 8, cont:
The United States is going to announce today that it's banning the import of Russian oil.
And from:
March 7, 2022
Oil topped $130/bbl yesterday briefly due to the Russo Ukrainian War. It was at $121/bbl at the time this was posted.
Wheat prices are also up for the same reason, with there being little in the way of an American due to the drought that set in last year and which, at least right now, is continuing.
And we're off into a scary new economic regime we have not seen since, well ever really, but which is most comparable to the state of the global economy from 1939 to 1945.
The implications of this are vast. The price of West Texas crude is $123/bbl, and Brent is $128.6/bbl. That's going to go up, but at the same time, the consumption of petroleum is going down in the US overall, which will continue.
How will this all develop?
Well, stay tuned for our usual insightful analysis.
March 10, 2022
Upset over efforts to revive a deal with Iran on nuclear fuel, and feeling they have been ignored in their own regional conflicts, Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirate representatives are not taking President Biden's calls on petroleum production.
March 12, 2022
A nuclear power plant went online in Finland yesterday.
The wave, once again, of the future.
Uber added a fuel surcharge.
March 16, 2022
Petroleum is back down below $100/bbl.
March 18, 2022
A bill has been introduced in the U.S. Senate to ban the importation of Russian uranium.
March 20, 2022
The company constructing the nuclear power plant in Wyoming has announced it will not use Russian uranium.
March 25, 2022
The United States has entered into a natural gas deal with the European Union to somewhat offset Russian imports to the EU.
And;
FACT SHEET: United States and European Commission Announce Task Force to Reduce Europe’s Dependence on Russian Fossil Fuels
Today, President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a joint Task Force to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels and strengthen European energy security as President Putin wages his war of choice against Ukraine.
This Task Force for Energy Security will be chaired by a representative from the White House and a representative of the President of the European Commission. It will work to ensure energy security for Ukraine and the EU in preparation for next winter and the following one while supporting the EU’s goal to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
The Task Force will organize its efforts around two primary goals: (1) Diversifying liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in alignment with climate objectives; (2) Reducing demand for natural gas.
Diversifying LNG Supplies in Alignment with Climate Objectives
- The United States will work with international partners and strive to ensure additional LNG volumes for the EU market of at least 15 bcm in 2022, with expected increases going forward.
- The United States and the European Commission will undertake efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of all new LNG infrastructure and associated pipelines, including through using clean energy to power onsite operations, reducing methane leakage, and building clean and renewable hydrogen-ready infrastructure.
- The European Commission will prepare an upgraded regulatory framework for energy security of supply and storage, as well as working with EU Member States to accelerate regulatory procedures to review and determine approvals for LNG import infrastructure. The United States will maintain its regulatory environment with an emphasis on supporting this emergency energy security objective and the REPowerEU goals.
- The European Commission will work with EU Member States toward the goal of ensuring, until at least 2030, demand for approximately 50 bcm/year of additional U.S. LNG that is consistent with our shared net-zero goals. This also will be done on the understanding that prices should reflect long-term market fundamentals and stability of supply and demand.
Reducing Demand for Natural Gas
- The United States and the European Commission will engage key stakeholders, including the private sector, and deploy immediate recommendations to reduce overall gas demand by accelerating market deployment of clean energy measures.
- Immediate reductions in gas demand can be achieved through energy efficiency solutions such as ramping up demand response devices, including smart thermostats, and deployment of heat pumps. The REPowerEU plan estimates that reductions through energy savings in homes can replace 15.5 bcm this year and that accelerating wind and solar deployment can replace 20 bcm this year, and through EU’s existing plans such as “Fit for 55” contribute to the EU goal of saving 170 bcm/year by 2030.
- As global leaders in renewable energy, the United States and the European Commission will work to expedite planning and approval for renewable energy projects and strategic energy cooperation, including on technologies where we both excel such as offshore wind.
- We will continue to collaborate to advance the production and use of clean and renewable hydrogen to displace unabated fossil fuels and cut greenhouse gas emissions, which will include both technology and supporting infrastructure.
March 31, 2022
In a huge move that will have major industry implications, Canada has banned the production of internal combustion engines for passenger vehicles after 2035. The move includes interim steps as well to reduce their numbers before that date.
Canada is effectively part of the American automobile production industry, with factories in Windsor Ontario being part of the Detroit system. This means that a major part of the North American market, albeit one with a comparatively small population, is rapidly pulling away from fossil fuel powered automobiles. This will have impacts in the United States in multiple ways, including production as the North American market pulls towards electric vehicles. The move can be expected to be at least attempted to be replicated in some US states.
The US is releasing 1,000,000,000 bbls of oil from the strategic reserve to attempt to depress oil prices. Middle Eastern countries which have been asked to do so have not been sympathetic, as they are generally not sympathetic with the position of the West in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The United States is considering using the Defense Appropriations Act to boost the mining of minerals in the US associated with electric vehicle batteries.
April 2, 2022
Upping the ante on its neighbor to the north, the State of Washington signed into a law yesterday a bill providing:
A target is established for the state that all publicly owned and privately owned passenger and light duty vehicles of model year 2030 or later that are sold, purchased, or registered in Washington state be electric vehicles.
How this would be enforced is not clear.
Fuel economy averages will be mandated to go from 28 mph to 40 mpg by 2026.
April 4, 2022
Wyoming has acquired $24,000,000 in a Federal mandate to begin putting in electric charging stations on major corridors.
The UN issued a dire climate report.
April 15, 2022
On March 29 of this year, wind generators produced more energy than coal and nuclear, combined.
The inclusion of nuclear in this is for a real statistical reason, but a bit misleading. If the US is to make its carbon targets, conversion to nuclear energy, the cleanest form of power generation, is an absolute must.
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals approved President Biden's Cost of Carbon policy pollution rule.
April 16, 2022
The Federal government is resuming oil leases, albeit in much reduced numbers and with a 6% hike in royalties, bringing the royalty rate to 18.75%. The old 12.5% rate had been in effect for a century.
April 21, 2022
The state's unemployment rate is well below 4% at the current time.
Utilities have estimated that complying with carbon capture retrofits would raise utility bills by $100/month.
April 26, 2022
Sunflower seed oil, the major cooking oil in some European countries, is now unavailable due to the war in Ukraine, that country being its source. Only olive oil is available.
May 21, 2022
Wyoming is suspending the production of custom "vanity" license plates due to an aluminum shortage.
May 28, 2022
June 3, 2022
Under a settlement reached in a Federal court, all of the Federal oil and gas leases issued between 2015 and 2020 will be reexamined for compliance with environmental provisions. There is a strong chance that they will not all go forward.
June 13, 2022
Wyoming natural gas producers, hoping to take advantage of record high natural gas prices, would like to export the same by ship, but there are no West Coast gas shipping hubs, and the West Coast doesn't want them.
This story involves a lot of interesting ironies, but I'll deal with them elsewhere.
July 6, 2022
Gasoline prices have fallen for twenty-one days in a row.
That being the case, in spite of it being well known that the price of gas follows the price of petroleum, with a lag, and that this is heavily influenced by external forces, we can suppose that politicians who tweeted on this everyday for a while, with criticism of the administration, will now do the same with praise.
Right?
I suspect not.
July 7, 2022
And they fell again yesterday, with the price of crude now reported to be "cratering".
July 11, 2022
Headline from the Trib:
Average gas price falls 19 cents in past week; another
new coronavirus mutant spreading; and more
July 15, 2022
Large scale layoffs are occurring at the Sinclair refinery in Sinclair. The company recently sold to a new owner.
July 27, 2022
2/3s of Americans have been reported to have adjusted their behavior in a recent poll so that they drive less.
July 28, 2022
Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin announced an agreement on a bill including $430 billion in spending on energy, electrical vehicle credits and health insurance and which is supposed to pay for itself and reduce the deficit by raising minimum taxes on large companies and more vigorous enforcement of existing tax laws. The announcement is being hailed as a Democratic breakthrough.
According to its backers the bill would reduce U.S. carbon emissions 40% by 2030.
July 30, 2022
The anticipated last shipment of coal, which will supply its last existing coal fired power plant until September when it shuts down, arrived in Hawaii.
August 5, 2022
The Inflation Reduction Act was briefly held up while the parties bargained with Congressman Sinema. As a result a tax break that principally benefits wealthy hedge fund managers, which had been removed, was preserved.
August 12, 2022
Benchmark crude prices are now back under $100/bbl. Prices at the pump are generally once again below $4.00/gallon nationwide.
August 13, 2022
A Federal Court has halted Federal coal leasing, reinstating an Obama era rule on the same.
August 26, 2022
California will require all cars, trucks and SUV's sold in the state after 2035 to be electric or hydrogen fueled after 2035.
Some Republicans at the Federal level are threatening to take away California's ability to independantly regulate automobiles in this fashion, but they lack the power at this point to really do anything about this.
