You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.
James Madison
January 2, 2026.
The United States v. Iran
We start off this year with the no more forever wars president threatening to intervene in Iran.
Iran is a bad actor, without a doubt, but what we'd particularly note here is that Trump's policy of intervention is beginning to look a lot like the Neo Con policy. A person can like that, or not, but it's not what he was promising at all. I'd heard various Trump supporters cite the "no more forever wars" line as (one of) their reasons for supporting him.
January 3, 2026
United States v. Venezuela
The United States hit Venezuela with a “large-scale strike” early Saturday and took Maduro and his wife prisoner.
No Declaration of War exists, of course, and there's no Congressional authorization for the use of force. This is, therefore, an illegal operation.
The news is too early to really make any definitive predictions about how this will turn out. Wars, however, tend to end when the attacked party decides they are over. Maybe this will tip the scales in Venezuela and things will change. Or maybe his followers dig in and carry on, in which case we are now committed to a wider conventional war, and perhaps a following guerilla war.
U.S. Delta Force seizes Venezuelan leader, sources say
US military captures Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro after striking military sites
The US Is Attempting Regime Change In Venezuela
Cont:
Trump's comments on the raid on Maduro:
As usual, when he reads a prepared statement, he sounds awful. While called to address the illegal attack in Venezuela, it meandered into the usual Trump mental mush addressing various Trump favorite topics and fantasies. Use of the National Guard in various states ended up being addressed by the clearly senile illegal occupant of the Oval Office.1
Trump has made it clear the U.S. intends to occupy Venezuela, apparently forgetting that simply seizing the head of state doesn't amount to a full surrender of anyone opposing a U.S. presence. This will require thousands of U.S. troops on a continent in which we've never had boots on the ground. People aligned with Maduro have no reason to cooperate with the US at all, and have plenty of reason not to.
Inside Venezuela there were protests over the U.S. action. Outside of the country Venezuelan expats celebrated the news.
Trump also made it clear that he intends to reverse the fifty year old nationalization of Venezuelan oil. Either Trump, or more likely somebody in his regime, has a real pre World War One view of the world, as this example of imperialism and gunboat diplomacy makes clear. Trump actually cited the Monroe Doctrine and his new security priorities.
Trump justified the action on the basis of ending Venezuelan drug exports to the U.S.
By way of a set of predictions, and knowing more about the use of military force that Donald Trump does, if the U.S. isn't in complete control of the country within thirty days, this will evolve into a guerilla war requiring no less than 100,000 U.S. troops. If the U.S. hasn't turned the country over to Venezuelans within one year, it'll evolve into a low grade guerilla war requiring no less than 50,000 boots on the ground.
January 4, 2026
United States v. Venezuela
So where are we now?
Yesterday it looked like, for awhile, that effectively what the US had done was to have mounted a coup of the Venezuelan government with the silent complicency of Venezuelan VP Delcy Rodríguez, sidestepping Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado Parisca.
Then came Trump's babbling senile statement about the operation.
Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as the country's President. She's just as left wing and Maduro, and she immediately indicated that she regard Maduro as the President and that she's not cooperating with the US.
So, what was achieved? We don't know, but unless we're going to do a full scale invasion of Venezuela, all we may have done is replace one left wing leader with another.
A bit closer to home, sort of:
Well, of course they did. Was there any doubt?
January 5, 2026
Yemeni Civil War
Saudi backed forces retook Mukalla.
Nigeria
Gunmen killed 30 in Kasuwan-Daji.
Syria
Britain and France carried out a joint airstrike late Saturday on an underground facility where members of the ISIL were located.
United States v. Venezuela
Pope Leo XIV commented on Venezuelan independence yesterday, stating:
The good of the beloved Venezuelan people must prevail over every other consideration and lead us to overcome violence and to undertake paths of justice and peace, safeguarding the country’s sovereignty, ensuring the rule of law enshrined in the Constitution, respecting the human and civil rights of each person and of all, and working to build together a serene future of collaboration, stability, and concord, with special attention to the poorest who suffer because of the difficult economic situation.
Columbian guerilla groups Unión Camilista Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) issued a warning to the US about the US having a presence in Venezuela.
FARC is a Communist guerilla movement while the ELN is a "Catholic Communist" or Liberation Theology guerilla movement. Columbia is their main focus, but they operate in Venezuela.
While the raid has been portrayed as lacking casualties on the U.S. side, U.S. troops were in fact wounded and have been air evacuated to the U.S.
Something being reported this morning:
Footnotes:
1. A real irony is present here in that Maduro was not the legitimate head of state, at this point, of Venezuela, and Donald Trump is not the legitimate head of state of the United States.
Related threads:
What we actually did and are doing.
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