Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part I. New Year, last year's wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

Only the dead have seen the end of the war.

George Santayana

January 1, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

This major war is now in its third calendar year.

Hamas Israeli War

The Prime Minister of Israel has stated that this campaign will carry on for many months.

An Israeli airstrike killed 35 in Gaza.

The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats attempting to attack a merchant vessel.

Venezuela v Guyana border dispute.

Venezuela is conducting a joint arms exercise in response to the Royal Navy dispatching a ship to Guyana.

January 2, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A change in Norwegian law allows Norwegian arms manufacturers to sell arms directly to Ukraine.

How much of a defense industry Norway has, of course, is another matter.

January 3, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

An Israeli airstrike sent Saleh Arouri to the next world, where he will have to make an account for his actions.  An Islamic radical his entire life, he was the founder of Hamas' military wing.  

He went to his end in Beirut.

From ISW:

Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip on December 31. This reduction in forces is part of what the IDF has described as its third phase in the strip, which also involves ending major combat operations, releasing reservists, transitioning to “targeted raids,” and establishing a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.

January 4, 2024

US/Mexico Border Crisis

The Justice Department has sued Texas on over a new law that would allow Texas police to arrest illegal immigrants on the basis of their illegality. 

My prediction is that this suit will likely fail.

Hamas Israeli War

Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel that launching a full-scale war on Lebanon Islamist targets would be "very costly," and that the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut would not go unpunished.

Sort of in the D'uh category.

Cont:

Islamic State v. Iran

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a bombing attack that killed 84 people in Kerman, Iran.  The attack occured during a memorial procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.  The Sunni group regards Shiites, which most Iranians are, with Iran being a Shiite theocracy, as apostates.

January 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin signed a decree signed speeding up citizenship for foreigners enlisting in the Russian army.

Somalian Civil War

From ISW: 

Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the de facto independent Somaliland Republic, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease a naval port that will give it Red Sea access in exchange for formally recognizing Somaliland.

January 7, 2024

The Korean Conflict

North Korea issued one of its threatening proclamations through Communist princess Kim Yo Jong.

These are moronic, as without China, and North Korea cannot really depend on China, South Korea would be eliminated as an entity in the event of war.

South Korea may soon not be able to fill its conscript levies due to a declining population.

Russo Ukrainian War

Japan's foreign minister visited Ukraine.

Russia seems to have resumed its strategy of attempting localized offensives that degrade its own forces.

The Ukrainians have been conducting a drone offensive against targets in Crimea.

January 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

News reports hold that Russia has deployed 35,000 men of the Russian National Guard, some equipped with World War Two vintage rifles, to occupied regions of Ukraine as security forces.

January 10, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Anthony Blinken has indicated the US rejects the concept of resettling the Gazan Levantines from that area even though, of course, its an untenable ghetto. 

Iran v. The West

Iranian backed Houthis launched 50 drones at shipping today, all of which were shot down by the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy.

Iran is using the current Hamas Israeli War as a pretext to try to advance its interest in the region.

January 11, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

The US and UK hit targets with missiles inside of Yemen, from which Houthi drone strikes have been coming. A Houthi spokesman actually complained about it.

January 12, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military. Skibitskyi stated that most Russian units in Ukraine are manned at between 92 and 95 percent of their intended end strength and that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater. Skibitskyi stated that Russian forces withdraw units that are at 50 percent or less of their intended end strength to rear areas and return them to the front following recovery and replenishment. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated on January 11 that the Russian military has successfully replenished Russian forces in Ukraine through an ongoing crypto-mobilization effort that generated over 500,000 new personnel in 2023.

Mexican Border Crisis.

The State of Texas, using the Texas National Guard, has seized Shelby Park in Eagle Pass in order to prevent Federal authorities from processing migrants.

January 13, 2024

Hamas Israeli War.

The US struck Houthi targets again yesterday.

Turkey v. Kurds

Turkish air raids struck Kurdish militant targets in Metina, Hakurk, Gara and Qandil in northern Iraq. This was in retaliation for a Kurdish attack on a Turkish base in Iraq.

January 16, 2024

Iran v Everyone

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched missile attacks in Syria and in Iraq’s Kurdistan region yesterday.

Korean Conflict

The North Korean Communist Clown state announced it is no longer pursuing reconciliation with South Korea, which actually dovetails nicely with general younger South Korean desires.

There's speculation on why this was announced, but in reality, any reunion between the countries at this point makes the ongoing Communist monarchy in North Korean irrelevant in every fashion so quickly, it isn't funny.

January 17, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US is placing the Houthi's back on the terrorist list.

Iran v. Everyone

Iran conducted missile strikes on a Sunni militia site in Pakistan.

January 18, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US conducted a fourth round of strikes on the Houthis.

Pakistan v. Baloch militants.

Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran against Baloch militants.

January 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Estonian state will not extend the residence permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church (Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia) of the Moscow Patriarchate, Metropolitan Yevgeniy, whose civil name is Valeri Reshetnikov, because his activities are a security threat to Estonia

Estonian government.

Cont:

The Middle East

Somebody (probably Israel) hit Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures inside of Syria.  In turn, US sites in Iraq were hit.by Iranian backed militia's.

Iran is the common thread here. 

January 21, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a two state solution for Gaza.

This is widely seen as a terrible thing to have done, but frankly, Gaza isn't viable as an isolated political unit and always has depended on economic support from the outside to get by. Geographically, it should be part of Israel or Egypt, and that's a simple economic and topographic fact.  It shouldn't be part of another state.

For that matter, a Palestinian state makes little to no sense.  It would be minute.

Those are the rough, real facts to deal with.  Levantines that live within the borders of what had been pre-1948 Palestine either have to live within Israel, realistically, or be relocated in some instances to an Arab state that could host them, none of which are willing to do it.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy expressed concerns about remarks made by Donald Trump regarding securing peace.

Concern is warranted given Trump's admiration for dictators and his increasingly erratic if not demented behavior.

January 22, 2024

China v. Taiwan

Recent statements by GOP candidate Donald Trump have risen concerns that his commitment to Taiwan, which has been a GOP hallmark, is low.  

FWIW, Trump raised Taiwanese semiconductor production as something the US should have done something about, seemingly failing to grasp that if it falls to China, we're in a world of semiconductor hurt.

On one of the weekend shows, it was recently revealed that Trump has a gigantic exaggerated fear of nuclear war.  He also clearly has a thing for strongmen.

January 23, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous nations are lining up against Israel and demanding a Palestinian state be part of a peace package, even though such a state, if within the boundaries of the former Palestinian mandate, would not be economically viable.  

Saudi Arabia, with a large landmass and a labor deficit, has stated it will not normalize relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state is created.

British and American forces hit Houthi ones again.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts.

Boarder Crisis

The U.S. Supreme Court allowed Federal agents to remove razor wire on the Texas/Mexico border, but it is merely a ruling on a temporary injunction, so the actual ruling, in terms of the issues, means next to nothing whatsoever.

January 24, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Due to political infighting, the US is out of funding for Ukraine and the pipeline is therefore shut.

January 25, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

From ISW:

Israel proposed a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for Hamas releasing over several phases the remaining hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The first phase would have Hamas return women, men over 60 years old, and hostages in critical medical condition. Israeli media reported that the "next phases" would include the release of female IDF soldiers, civilian males under the age of 60, Israeli male soldiers, and the bodies of hostages. An anonymous Israeli official told an Israeli journalist that the proposal includes redeploying the IDF out of main population centers in the Gaza Strip to allow Palestinian civilians to return to these areas. The official added that this proposal does not include the release of all 6,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

This would be a major concession from Israel, but it doesn't seem to have generated much news.

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian Il-76 military transporting Ukrainian POWs for an exchange crashed in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast. The Russians have accused Ukraine of shooting it down.

Patriarch Krill urged the Russian government to extend the draft deferment for fathers, now set at fathers with four children, down to father's with three, out of concern for the declining Russian population.

Slovakia, whose current government is close to Putin, pleadged support for the integrity of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

Middle East

Houthi's attempted to attack U.S. Navy escorts with ballistic missiles unsuccessfully.

US/Mexico Border

An attempt in Congress to get a bill passed to address the border is stalled with Donald Trump now entering the picture, opposing it, something that is hard not to be quite skeptical about.

This will messs up aid to Ukraine as well.

January 27, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

US/Mexico Border

January 27, 2024

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson declared that a budget measure that the Senate did pass providing aid to Ukraine and addressing the US/Mexico border may be dead on arrival at the House.

Trump appears to wish to preserve the border issues, and a second of today's GOP opposes aid to Ukraine.  An unresolved weirdness of populist and Putin, acquired from Trump, remains unresolved.

Also:

Governor Gordon Supports Texas’ Right to Secure its Border

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has issued a statement in support of border security Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to defend and protect itself in the face of the crisis at the southern border.

“I remain committed to a secure border, and to supporting states struggling with the ongoing security crisis along our southern border. That’s why Wyoming has offered resources and committed them to this effort, most recently responding to Governor Greg Abbott's  Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request for law enforcement officers. I recognize the importance of secure borders and the vulnerabilities that a lack of resolve to securing those borders has brought to our country.

Secure borders prevent criminals and deadly drugs like fentanyl from entering our country and making their way to Wyoming. Wyoming stands in solidarity with Governor Abbott and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy to secure the border and protect American citizens. We are all border states now.”

Governor Gordon was also one of 25 Governors who signed a joint statement in support of Texas Governor Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to self-defense.

Related to this, Denver Colorado reports it has an illegal/refugee populaton of 40,000.

Middle East

The Houthi's hit and set on faire an oil tanker.

China v The West

China’s intelligence agency has warned the Chinese to beware of “exotic beauties” who they fear are opserating as honey traps.

Intersingly, honey traps were a favorite Communist tactic for gathering intelligence.

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

January 28, 2024

Picking up where we left off yesterday:

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

The agency's head warns that UNRWA is collapsing given that nine countries have withdrawn from it and famine looms.

This is a tragedy, but it also tells us something about the UN and th total lack of viability of the Palestinian Authority's territorial regions, although of course a war is on.

Clearly, something needs to be done. That something, requires new oversight, and some hard decisions that nobody wants to make.

January 29, 2024

The Middle East

Three American troops were killed and more injured by an Iranian backed militia drone strike on a US base in Jordan.  The base is near the border with Jordan.

I was unaware we had any bases in Jordan.

January 31, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians have launched an offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XII. γλυκύ δ᾽ἀπείρῳ πόλεμος. πεπειραμένων δέ τις ταρβεῖ προσιόντα νιν καρδία περισσῶς.

Crisis on the border. Roots, origins, angst, and what is to be done.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

Those seeking asylum, FWIW, are required to have first applied in the countries from which they are departing, or online, or if they traveled through another country or countries, those places.  The problem remains of dealing with the requests of those who are allowed in.

Most of the migrants are fleeing economic distress or violence in their homelands, the product of a wide-ranging number of things, and which varies by countries.  Haiti, for example, remains impoverished as a legacy of paying its original French slaveholders upon achieving independence long ago.  Almost all of the Central American and South American states contributing to the human flood also suffer from the legacy of Spanish Colonialism, which saw its original liberators largely act in the name of their own self-interest rather than that of the native populations.  Stable Central American states, looked at with a long lens, have a single stable government example, which also contributes to the flood due to being in an unstable neighborhood.  The existence of multiple Central American states in the first place is nonsensical and is a symptom of failed policies itself. They should really all be part of Mexico, which in fact was at least partially the plan early on.  Repeated efforts to reunite into one state have failed, leaving tiny rump states that have been corruptly ruled and which have fallen into the control of criminal gangs, something the US's unending appetite for illegal drugs, a symptom of its own failed American Dream, fuels.

Marines in Nicaragua, 1932.

Central Americans have lived in fear of US intervention for decades, although that seems to have ceased, as has U.S. intervention.  Unfortunately, the region is terribly governed, with Socialist ineptitude governing in some places (Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela), to simply featuring failed states in others.  The US has repeatedly tried a "good neighbor" policy of non-intervention, and it retains guilt over supposed "American colonialism"  for intervention.  The US last put troops on the ground in Panama when it deposed the Panamanian leader during the Reagan Administration and then went right on to invade Grenada.

The problem remains that the neighbor analogy may be too appropriate.  It might be neighborly to ignore your neighbor's dissolute living for a while, but when it turns violent, do you?

It's clear something has to be done to address the root problems of what's being seen. But what is that?

Churches of the West: Holy Days of Obligation.

Churches of the West: Holy Days of Obligation.: 

Holy Days of Obligation.

At one time, I assumed that the entire globe had the same Catholic Holy Days of Obligation, but this is not true.  No, not at all.

The United States has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• Ascension of the Lord
• Assumption of the Virgin Mary
• All Saints' Day
• Immaculate Conception of the Virgin Mary
• Christmas

In contrast, our immediate neighbor to the north, Canada, has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• Christmas

What the heck?  This seems rather light.

Mexico has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• The Body and Blood of Christ
• Christmas
• Our Lady of Guadalupe

Mexico is, of course, a Catholic country, but it has a history of anti-Catholic revolution, so that may explain it.  We share two of its four, one of which we also share with Canada.

I think frankly Canada should receive a couple of more.  Canada had its only sort of civil anti-Catholic revolution, quietly, which has made Quebec a mess, and perhaps an added Holy Day might be in order.

Having said that, Australia and New Zealand, which like Canada has a strong English history, also has only two.  The United Kingdom, however, has more than that.

Likewise, which devolved a strong Lutheran influence after at first having a very lukewarm one (Scandinavians have forgotten that the Reformation wasn't really that keenly received there at first, and then foisted upon them by a Swedish King who probably didn't believe at all), has only two.

But them, Sweden has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• Epiphany
• Feast of the Ascension
• Feast of Saints Peter and Paul
• Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• All Saints' Day
• Christmas

That's more than the U.S.  And Qatar has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• Thomas the Apostle
• Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• Birth of our Lady
• Christmas

And even Saudi Arabia has the following:

• Solemnity of Mary, Mother of God
• Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• Christmas

Serbia has only two, but it's mostly Orthodox.  So is Ukraine, but it has the following:

• Epiphany
• Presentation of the Lord
• Annunciation of the Holy Virgin Mary
• Feast of the Ascension
• Transfiguration of the Lord
• Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• Exaltation of the Holy Cross
• Presentation of Mary
• Christmas

Ukraine, however, has a strong Eastern Rite Catholic tradition in its west, minority population though it is.  Its Catholic population persevered through Communism, even though its adherents were compelled to attend Orthodox services, which they did, before going to secret Catholic ones later.

Venezuela, in contrast, has a Catholic heritage, but like Canada, has only two Holy Days of Obligation.

The total possible Holy Days of Obligation are, currently:

Placed in the order of the liturgical calendar, the ten days (apart from Sundays) that this canon mentions are:

• 8 December: Solemnity of the Immaculate Conception of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• 25 December: Solemnity of the Nativity of the Lord (Christmas)
• 1 January: Solemnity of Mary, the Holy Mother of God
• 6 January: Solemnity of the Epiphany of the Lord
• 19 March: Solemnity of Saint Joseph, Spouse of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• Thursday of the sixth week of Eastertide: Solemnity of the Ascension of the Lord
• Thursday after Trinity Sunday: Solemnity of the Most Holy Body and Blood of Christ (Feast of Corpus Christi)
• 29 June: Solemnity of Saints Peter and Paul, Apostles
• 15 August: Solemnity of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary
• 1 November: Solemnity of All Saints

That's ten.

Prior to 1911, the total possible was thirty-six.   Then, as now, Bishops could reduce the number.  Today, only Vatican City and the Swiss Diocese of Lugano observe all ten, although some Dioceses have added Holy Days not on it, such as Ireland, which as St. Patrick's Day, and Germany and Hungary which have Saint Stephen's Day on 26 December, Easter Monday, and Pentecost Monday.

Now the country has fewer than two.

And two seems too few to me.

The Eastern Rite of the Catholic Church, I'd note, has the following:

• The Solemnity of the Nativity of the Lord (Christmas)
• The Epiphany
• The Ascension
• The Holy Apostles Peter and Paul
• The Dormition of Holy Mary, the Mother of God

Note, however, the situation in Ukraine.  The Orthodox have a duty of worship on the following days, although what that means is not clear to me:

• The Nativity of Our Lord, December 25
• The Circumcision of Christ, January 1
• Ascension Day, 40 Days after Pascha (Easter)
• The Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary, August 15
• All Saints Day, November 1
• The Conception of the Blessed Virgin Mary, December 8

In noting all of this, I feel a little bad and whiny about Holy Days, as I've often felt it a burden to get to Mass on them.  But, in my defense, I've often not grasped why no noon Mass was offered for them in my Tri Parish locality.  All in all, looking at it, I think we should add a couple to that six, and that the other country of which I am a citizen, ought to double the number of theirs.

Yes, it's a bit of a burden, and yes you stand out. But perhaps that's part of it.

Friday, November 27, 1942. Vichy Scuttles its Fleet, Jimi Hendrix born.

The Vichy French scuttled their own ships in harbor in Toulon to keep them out of German hands.  It was a brave act by Vichy, perhaps the most admirable thing it did during the war.  Operation Lila, the German offensive operation to seize the French Navy, had in fact commenced on November 19.

Three battleships, seven cruisers, fifteen destroyers, twelve submarines and thirteen torpedo boats of the French Navy went down at French hands.

Admirable though it was, it was not as admirable as what the Italian Navy would do the next year, which was to bolt to the sea so that it could join the Allies.  Indeed, in retrospect, or even at the time, the decision not to break out can be questioned, but Vichy was still making pretenses to being the de jure French government at the time, even though it was rapidly losing that status, and in fact already had.

Venezuela broke off relations with Vichy.

James ("Jimi) Marshal Hendrix, the greatest guitar player who ever lived, was born in Seattle, Washington.

Self-taught, and unable to read music, Hendrix came out of a blues saturated background and crossed over into Rock & Roll during its greatest era.  Nobody played the guitar like he did before him, and nobody has surpassed his abilities since.  Amazingly, Hendrix did not take up the guitar until he was 15.

A master of distortion at a time in which using it had not yet been figured out, Hendrix became a full time musician following his discharge from the Army in 1962.  Entering the music scene in the turmoil of the 1960s, Hendrix was unfortunately drawn to the drug culture of the era, which ended up taking his life in 1970 at age 27.  In his short musical career he established a body of music which stands out to this day.

Hendrix was just learning how to read music at the time of his death, and interestingly enough, was learning how to play wind instruments in addition to the guitar and bass that he already knew how to play.  Given that 80 years of age isn't an uncommon one, had drugs not taken his life, he could still be living today, and the music scene would have undoubtedly developed much differently than it did since 1970.

Wednesday December 31, 1941. The conclusion of a disasterous year.

It was New Year's Eve, a traditional day of celebration in the Western World, and those using the Christian calendar in general, which at this time was the whole world, save for church calendars using the "old calendar".  Often a day of revelry, this one no doubt was in spite of the war, but the war would have weirdly warped it in at least some fashion.

It's also one of resolutions, then and now.

Making any?

As earlier noted in our Today In Wyoming's History: December 31 entry:

1941   Big Piney, Pinedale, Nowood, and Star Valley became the first Wyoming Conservation Districts when their Certifications of Organization were signed by Wyoming's Secretary of State Lester Hunt.

At least when it falls on a weekday, as it did in 1941, it's also a work day, although not all private employers observe that in the same fashion.

The Japanese were working, with ongoing advances throughout the Pacific and Far East. And they were back in action in the Hawaiian islands, where  Japanese submarines shelled Kauai and Maui.

Allied leaders agreed to a Germany First policy in the war and form a combined US/UK Chiefs of Staff organization.

While looking back it was obvious that the war had turned, for those living in the time, facing constant Japanese expansion by the day, the decision to take on Germany first must have been daunting indeed.  This is how the map of Europe then looked:

This was, moreover, even worse than this might at first suggest.  Spain was still solidly aligned with Germany at the time, and had given airfield rights to German maritime patrols and port rights to German submarines, although secretly.  Sweden was in fact a neutral, but its raw materials were going to Germany.

And then there was the Japanese offensive all over the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

In Manila, residents were destroying alcohol in fear that Japanese troops would engage in a drunken rampage, news of what had occurred in Hong Kong having reached them.

Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations with Germany, Italy and Japan.

Things must have looked awful.  And indeed they were.

But the seeds of victory were already there, even though revelers this evening would have had real reason to doubt it.  Germany had not defeated the Soviet Union, which was fighting back now that winter had arrived.  The British were advancing in North Africa, which constituted a real second front even if the USSR would never admit that.  The British were also conducting raids along the Atlantic coast pretty much whatever they wanted to, demonstrating that even though the Germans commissioned a new U-boat nearly every day, they still weren't able to drive the British from the sea or even really dominate the surface of the Atlantic.  

The Japanese, for their part, were on the march, but the case still remained that they were not into a decade long war with China which they had not defeated.  No matter how much the Japanese advanced, that remained a daunting fact.  Until they could actually take China out of the war, China would consume the bulk of its ground forces and men committed anywhere else took away from that.  They were advancing, but only because their navy had never been committed against China.  It was proving highly effective against the U.S. Navy, the Royal Navy, and the Dutch Navy, but even there, it had not struck a decisive blow against any of them.

Closer to home

My family has never been big on New Year's Eve, which makes me guess that my parents families weren't either.  For Catholics, January 1 is the Catholic Holy Day of Obligation, the Solemnity of Mary, and December 31 has always had a Mass of Anticipation.  Without knowing, my guess is that this would have been the day my parents' families would have chosen to go to Mass, but I could well be wrong.  I'd definitely be wrong if my then 12-year-old father had to serve a January 1 Mass.

My parents would have still been enjoying a holiday break from school, and probably dreading the return to school the following week.

Random Geopolitical Observations.

1.  When a major power suggest to opposition forces in another country that they ought to engage in an uprising, it does them a disservice unless they're going to actually support the uprising.

This was the lesson of the Hungarian Revolution of 1958, and it's the lesson of Venezuela right now.

Prior to the 58 Hungarian uprising, we suggested that if an Eastern Bloc nation tried to throw off the Soviet shackles, we'd be there.

We weren't.

And we just suggested to the opposition in Venezuela that it ought to overthrow the strongman in power.

They tried, and we didn't do anything.

Maybe we should have done anything in Venezuela, and no doubt we couldn't do anything in Hungary. That's not the point.

The point is, that by acting like we'd show up, we made the opposition show up, and that does them no favors if they can't prevail.

2.  Not everything is the economy.

Over the weekend North Korea launched missiles into the sea east of the country.  This raises serious concerns over North Korea's willingness to bargain with us to denuclearize the peninsula.  President Trump, however, issued a statement that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, will come to the table as he understands the "great economic potential" that the country has that could be developed if they'd treat with us.

What makes us think that?

Societies that have fairly open economies or develop them think that way, but lots of countries don't. And no country full thinks that way.  Kim Jong Un surely knows that the most effective way of modernizing his country's economy would be to reunite the North with the South in a democratic government, which would effectively be opening the border and asking to come into the Republic of Korea, much like the DDR did with the BDR (East and West Germany) when communism collapsed there.

But it's not like Eric Honaker decided that was a nifty idea.

That will probably occur at some point, but will Kim Jong Un take North Korea there?  It seems unlikely.

3.  It's good to finish up on existing wars before getting into others.

Right now the U.S. Navy is demonstrating in the Indian Ocean in a move directed at Iran.

I'll be frank that I don't completely follow our current policy on Iran, but get it that the country isn't our friend and it sponsors groups we really don't like.

But we still have troops in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.  Now, all of those struggles do involve Iran in one way or another, and maybe that plays into this.  But at a time at which it seems like we'd like out of all of those places, is it really well thought out to be looking like we're willing to take on Iran?  I'm sure we could, but do we really want to do that?

Gun Boat Diplomacy? What year is it?

Yesterday in the news it was reported that over several days President Trump kept raising the topic of removing the government of Venezuela by military force.

Crew of the USS Denver in Nicaragua, 1912.

Yikes.

Let's make no mistake. The government of Venezuela is ruining the country.  But invading it?  That's wacky.

Apparently the President raised this with his advisers by surprise and kept raising it over a period of a couple of days, each time meeting opposition to the concept.  It was just a concept, but still that's really scary. And he even apparently mentioned the concept to the chief executive of Columbia.

Yikes again.

Trump seemed impressed by the American deposing of the Manuel Noriega, the military dictator of Panama in the 1980s whom President Reagan had removed (oddly, this was a topic of conversation with my son just yesterday, July 4.)  And it was mentioned in my very recent post on the U.S. Marines and World War One.   He also referenced the American invasion of Grenada.

M113 personnel carrier in Panama during Operation Just Cause.  Twenty three US servicemen died in the invasion and about ten times that number of Panamanian servicemen.

Neither of these are analogous.  After all, Panama was ruled by a military figure who had light support in that country in general, and Panama is a creature of the United States over which we exhibited fairly extensive control for eons.  Grenada is an island (over which the British retain some technical sovereignty).  Neither of these military missions were calculated to meet with much opposition, although they did meet with some.

82nd Airborne Division M102 howitzer firing a fire mission in Grenada.  Nineteen American servicemen died in this action and about three times that number of Grenadians and Cubans.

There would definitely be opposition in Venezuela.

And invading a nation simply because it is lead by whackadoodles is not a Just War.

Hopefully this idea has passed.

Saturday, April 10, 1909 Finnish, Métis Tragedy, and Arctic Tragedy.

Czar Nicholas II approved a recommendation that "laws of general Imperial interest concerning Finland" be enacted by the Duma, in which Finland had a single representative, rather than its own legislative assemble.  It was part of the process of Russification of the country which had commenced in 1899, reversing the original imperial policy put in place in 1808 when Sweden had lost Finland to Russia.

The Finn's have inhabited Finland since at least 9,000 BC, and probably longer.  The first references to it as an entity come from Catholic sources in the 12th Century as the Church began to Christianize the country, but it had no real political organization.  It came under the control of Sweden the following century, with Sweden losing it to Russia in the Finnish War of 1808-1809.  The Russification policy, something the Russians have exhibited ever since the 19th Century wherever it has control, and which effectively continues to the present day, would result in the Finnish independence movement.

Canada opened up the Métis lands in Alberta to homesteaders.  250 claims by French Canadians were registered on the first day.

Professor Ross G. Marvin of Cornell became Admiral Peary's Eighth Arctic Expedition's only fatality when he drowned, maybe.

His body was found floating and appeared to have gone through thin ice, as reported by Inuit guide Kudlookto.  However, in 1926 Kudlookto claimed he had shot and killed Marvin, either because Marvin had started acting irrationally, or because Marvin refused to let Kudlookto's cousin, another member of the expedition, rest.  Peary's daughter (as you'll recall his sons were by his native mistress and were left up in the Arctic in the abandoned care of their mother), discounted the story, although how she would know what happened in reality is another matter. Presumably from information supplied by her father.

It's hard to imagine why Kudlookto would make the story of killing Marvin up, although people do odd things.

Peary's account.

He had been on a prior expedition.  He was 29 years old at the time of his death.

Cipriano Castoro, the former President of Venezuela, was forcibly ejected from Martinique by the French.

Jonesboro, Tenn, April 10, 1909.

Last prior edition:

Friday, April 9, 1909. Establishing Mother's Day.

Location: South Dakota, USA