Showing posts with label Marijuana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marijuana. Show all posts

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Monday, March 3, 1924. End of the Caliphate.

The Turkish National Assembly ended the Ottoman Caliphate.  It had been in existence for 407 years and claimed religious sovereignty over Islam.  The Assembly also ordered that Abdulmejid II and his harem were to be deported by March 15.  The official deposing of Abdulmejid would come at 2:00 a.m. on March 4.

He did not welcome the news and warned that the ending of the caliphate would cause the rise of extremism in Islam, which his role as the religion's leader of Muslims tempered.  He proved to be correct.  He lived the rest of his life in Europe, at first in Switzerland, and then in Paris, where he died in 1944.  His exile was not an easy one at first, and he was disappointed that Muslims did not demand the restoration of his office.

The Teapot Dome investigation continued.


And the local Piggly Wiggly was robbed.  That location is now a tattoo parlor.

Last prior:

Saturday, March 1, 1924. The Nixon Nitration Works Disaster.

Thursday, February 1, 2024

119th Congress, Part 1.

Same sort of new speaker.

New Year, new Congress, same old problems

January 3, 2024

Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) is resigning from Congress effective January 21.  This leaves the balance in the House at 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, with three seats still vacant. 

The GOP can only afford to have two members break ranks before it cannot pass legislation.

Bill Johnson is resigning in order to become President of Youngstown State University.

January 8, 2024

Congressional leaders have reached a spending limits agreement that may, perhaps, help avoid more government shutdown brinksmanship this month.

January 12, 2024

Re the January 8 item, not all are happy in the GOP ranks. Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio:“I’m not going to sit there and listen to that drivel, because he has no plans to do anything but surrender"

Johnson could be in trouble.

January 14, 2024

Congress reached a budget deal, featuring of course a continuing resolution that kicks the can into March.

January 21, 2024

Marjorie Taylor Greene has been booted out of the House Freedom Caucus for attacking other GOP members in the House, most particularly, apparently, Lauren Boebert.

Green appears to be the one single person in the House absolutely nobody can stand.

January 25, 2024

US/Mexico Border

An attempt in Congress to get a bill passed to address the border is stalled with Donald Trump now entering the picture, opposing it, something that is hard not to be quite skeptical about.

January 26, 2024

I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is … really appalling.

But the reality is that, that we have a crisis at the border, the American people are suffering as a result of what’s happening at the border. And someone running for president not to try and get the problem solved. as opposed to saying, ‘hey, save that problem. Don’t solve it. Let me take credit for solving it later.’

Mitt Romney 

January 27, 2024

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson declared that a budget measure that the Senate did pass providing aid to Ukraine and addressing the US/Mexico border may be dead on arrival at the House.

Trump appears to wish to preserve the border issues, and a second of today's GOP opposes aid to Ukraine.  An unresolved weirdness of populist and Putin, acquired from Trump, remains unresolved.

January 29, 2024

A House committee has released two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas regarding failing to enforce immigration laws and control the border, which is ironic given that the House has made it plain that it won't take up an immigration bill from the Senate which addresses the crisis at the border.

The house will approve impeaching Mayorkas and this will go for a trial in the Senate, which would have to vote 2/3s to remove him from office. That's not going to occur, and the bigger question is whether and in what form the Senate takes this up at all.

One more example of how the American government is not working right now. Something like less than 30 bills have passed the 119th which instead is engaging in political theater like this, particularly in the House.

Only once before in US history has a Cabinet member been in impeached. That was in 1876 for taking kickbacks.  As a high crime or misdemeanor is required, this is really absurd.  It's risky as well at this point, as it points out that this is being done as the GOP in the House is upset with Biden's failure to defend the border, and thinks that's an impeachable offense, whereas most of them didn't think that sparking an insurrection and acting in a seditious manner was an impeachable offense. Reductio ad absurdum.

January 31, 2024

February 1, 2024

The House passed a bipartisan tax bill that would expand the child tax credit and reinstate some tax cuts for businesses, in spite of the fact that the Government isn't remotely close to paying for all its spending currently.

Thursday, January 4, 2024

The Ongoing 2023 Legislative Session of Other States.

How we all imagine legislatures once were. . . because they didn't have the opportunity to put every dumb thought they had out on Twitter.

At least Wyoming can be thankful that its citizen legislature can't afford to be in ongoing session.

May 21, 2023

Minnesota, deciding that Americans aren't stupid enough, and don't already have enough in the way of options to make themselves even stupider, voted to legalize marijuana.

It also passed a new gun measure.

June 3, 2023

Connecticut banned marriages under 18 with no exceptions.

September 7, 2023

California has banned caste based discrimination, which is something prevalent in the Indian culture. The Governor has not indicated if he will sign the act.

While I agree with the measure, this is frankly an example of a Western culture declaring its values to be superior to that of an Asian one.  Western cultures have a Christianity based concept that all people are equal.  Lots of cultures hold the polar opposite.

Massachusetts has passed funding for universal "free" school lunches.

Of course, they aren't free, they're government funded. And the government doesn't make an income through production, so they're tax funded.  This means they're taxpayer funded.  Massachusetts has ain income tax, so this means that Massachusetts is separating cash from the wallets of everyone in the state in order to buy lunches for school kids, irrespective of parental obligations to pay to feed their kids.

October 3, 2023

Nebraska is requiring transgender youth seeking "gender-affirming care", the Orwellian term for gender mutilation, to wait seven days to start puberty-blocking medications or hormone treatments under emergency regulations as well as to receive at least 40 hours of “gender-identity-focused” therapy   This followed a Nebraska law that took effect on Sunday which bans "gender affirming" surgical mutilation for those under 19.

Nebraska, intentionally or not, is following a global trend here which is limiting such procedures in minors, with the data showing its frequently regretted.

October 8, 2023

California has put into effect a law requiring  requires public and private US businesses with revenues greater than $1 billion operating in California to report their emissions comprehensively.

January 4, 2024

Passed last year, some new state laws:

  • A new Minnesota law allows authorities to ask courts for “extreme risk protection orders” to temporarily take guns from people deemed to be an imminent threat to others or themselves. 
  • Colorado has banned "ghost guns"
  • A Connecticut law requires online dating operators to adopt policies for handling harassment reports.
  • A North Carolina law requires pornographic website operators to confirm viewers are at least 18 years old by using a commercially available database. Parents can sue for failure to comply with the law.
  • A new Illinois law allows lawsuits by victims of deepfake pornography,
  • Bans on chemical gender mutilation of minors take effect in Idaho, Louisiana and West Virginia. 
  • A new law in Hawaii requires new marriage certificates to be issued to people who request to change how their sex is listed. 
  • In Colorado, new buildings wholly or partly owned by government entities are now required to have on every floor where there are public restrooms at least one that does not specify the gender of the users.
  • A new Indiana law makes it easier for parents and others to challenge books in school libraries. 
  • A new Illinois law blocks state funding for public libraries that ban or restrict books.
  • Kansas dropped the sales tax on groceries drops from 4% to 2% .  It plans to eliminate the slaes tax on groceries entirely.
  • Connecticut and Missouri reduced their state income tax rate.

Thursday, November 9, 2023

The 2023 "Off Year" Election.

October 2, 2023.


Some states, albeit not Wyoming, are having elections this November.  

And some of them will have interesting topics on their ballots.  We start with this one, a Texas right to farm act, that will be on the ballot in Texas.

Texans to Vote on Right to Farm Constitutional Amendment November 7

November 8, 2023

Following the trend of voting to make Americans even more intoxicated and dim than they already are, Ohio voted to legalize recreational marijuana.  It also voted in favor of opening up abortion, unfortunately.

Houston is going to have a mayoral runoff.

cont:

Democrats gained control of both houses of the Virginia legislature.

Republicans only barely held the House of Delegates before this, but this can legitimately be regarded as another example of the Trump GOP losing power in an election.

Democrats took the Governor's race in Kentucky.

None of this may be dramatic, but the GOP has a demographic problem, and Trump isn't helping it.  Therefore, ironically, there's a fairly good chance that he'll be elected as the next President, but the House and the Senate will go Democratic.

cont:

Democrats won big in New Jersey.

For some reason, apparently it was thought they would not, which is odd.

November 9, 2023

Regarding ballot initiatives in Maine; Maine passed a resolution prohibiting election funding by foreign governments, including entities with partial foreign government ownership or control.

The Pine Tree Power Company initiative decisively failed.

A right to repair initiative requiring vehicle manufacturers to provide access to vehicle on board diagnostic systems to owners and repair facilities passed.

An attempt to allow out of states to gather initiative signatures failed.

Texas, not too surprisingly, had a bunch of initiatives on its ballot.  Some of interest here:

A right to farm, ranch, harvest timber, practice horticulture and engage in wildlife management was added to the State Constitution.  The vote was overwhelmingly in favor.

Voters authorized an ad valorem tax exemption on medical and biomedical equipment.

An effort to raise judicial retirement age from 75 to 79 (what the heck?) failed, thank goodness.

A resolution to prohibit a tax on net wealth passed.

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

The 118th Congress.

With as many entries as this was getting that were off-topic, it clearly deserved its own trailing thread.

The 118th Congress.  A fairly sad state of affairs.

The Circus Maximus today.

September 14, 2023.

Ring Master, Kevin McCarthy, is expected to endorse an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.

Soon we'll have a government shutdown as well.

Let's be clear, Congress is no longer functioning.  I don't mean there are problems, it's dysfunctional.  

The country cannot continue this way. Those taking "stands on principal" are wrecking the county.

These actions are merely red meat for the dogs.  They cannot pass, which means those proposing them are either lying to the public, or lying to themselves. 

Lying is a sin, and in Catholic theology lying about serious matters is a serious sin.

September 29, 2023

California Senator Dianne Feinstein has died at 90 years of age, having served beyond that period of time during which a simple appreciate of nature and statistics should have led her to step down.  Her replacement will now have to be chosen by the Governor of California.

While Feinstein will be widely lauded, there are those who have a less charitable view of her, including myself.  Whatever a person's overall views are, however, she served in the Senate passed the point at which she should have yielded to a younger person and now choosing her replacement, and now it will come at a highly politically charged point in our recent political history.

October 1, 2023.

Crisis postponed. 

The following crisis that is:

Subsidiarity Economics. The Shutdown edition.

September 28, 2023


Kevin McCarthy, prisoner of GOP populists, will not take up the Senate bill to fund the government, making a shutdown impossible to avoid.

The House of Representatives is, quite frankly, dysfunctional.

And given this, we will close out this edition of Subsidiarity Economics, even though its barely gone, and start one focused on that theme.

Kevin McCarthy should hang his head in shame.

What all will close, assuming that the House doesn't get its act together today, isn't clear. Some things will, but "vital" things apparently will not.  Some Federal employees will be asked to work without pay, which is interesting, as working without pay is involuntary servitude, and was banned by a post Civil War constitutional amendment.

Congress, oddly, will get paid. 

The mail will continue to be delivered, as the U.S. Post Office funds itself.

Arizona and Utah have voted to spend state funds to keep their National Parks open.  Senator John Barrasso asked the Secretary of the Interior to use park entry fees to do the same.

Fat Bear Week is off due to the dysfunctional House of Representatives having been taken hostage by populists.

Government contracts and modifications to contracts will not be issued.

Medicaid will continue to be paid. Medicare will continue on.

The FHA will have limited staff and loans it processes will be delayed.

The SBA will shut down.

The ATF might not process background checks, which may lead to a complete halt on the sale of firearms by licensed firearm's dealers.

The latter is the thing that Wyomingites are likely to complain about right away.  People in industries supported by tourism are likely to notice the closure of the parks rapidly.

All of this, of course, is because this will be a managed shut down, which is really a limited shutdown or a slow-down.  If things continue for some time, and this time they might, a real shutdown may creep in, which Wyomingites, in spite of apparently disdaining the Federal Government, would really feel.  A closure of the airports, for example, could be expected at some point, And a cessation of petroleum production on Federal lands due to a lack of Federal oversight.  Perhaps a cessation of grazing on the Federal domain for the same reason.  And a lack of highway funds.

None of that will happen rapidly, of course.  Or maybe at all.

September 30, 2023.

We’re likely to avert a shutdown, but the clown show continues

Let the grousing now being.

Not from Reich, with whom I obviously have a love/hate relationship, but from the MAGA far right out in the hinterlands, who will be outraged, outraged I tell you, and they'll tell you on their way from the television to the refirgerator for a Coors Lite (can't touch that Bud, of course) who would, they'll say, have enjoyed the shutdown. . .right up until they didn't, and then somehow, it would have been the Democrats fault.Congress passed a 45-day stopgap spending bill yesterday.  In doing so, Speaker McCarthy noted:

We’re going to be adults in the room. And we’re going to keep government open.
Well now he has 45 days to see if he can do that.

The bill omitted funding for Ukraine.  President Biden noted that in his address regarding the stopgap bill.
Tonight, bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate voted to keep the government open, preventing an unnecessary crisis that would have inflicted needless pain on millions of hardworking Americans. This bill ensures that active-duty troops will continue to get paid, travelers will be spared airport delays, millions of women and children will continue to have access to vital nutrition assistance, and so much more. This is good news for the American people.
 
But I want to be clear: we should never have been in this position in the first place. Just a few months ago, Speaker McCarthy and I reached a budget agreement to avoid precisely this type of manufactured crisis. For weeks, extreme House Republicans tried to walk away from that deal by demanding drastic cuts that would have been devastating for millions of Americans. They failed.
 
While the Speaker and the overwhelming majority of Congress have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine, there is no new funding in this agreement to continue that support. We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the Speaker will keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine and secure passage of the support needed to help Ukraine at this critical moment.

McCarthy had to rely on Democrats to pass the bill, and will now surely face an effort aimed at his removal by his hard right. 

October 2, 2023

Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, who was instrumental in defeating a Republican bill to keep the budget rolling that included many of the things populist are demanding, is going to try to remove McCarthy as Speaker of the House.

cont:

Gaetz filed a motion to vacate, which would replace McCarthy as Speaker of the House.

To survive, McCarthy now needs the cooperation of Democrats, maybe.

Meanwhile, there is a long brewing effort to remove Gaetz from Congress due to ethics concerns.

October 3, 2023

California Gov. Gavin Newsom selected Laphonza Butler, a Democratic strategist and adviser to Kamala Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign, to fill the late Dianne Feinstein's U.S. Senate seat.

I know nothing about Butler, and she may be supremely qualified, but its hard not to assume there's a fair amount of box checking going on in the selection, something that Democratic politicians are particularly likely to do. Butler is black, fulfilling a Newsom promise, and she's gay, making her the first black openly gay U.S. Senator. Should that matter?  No, but its statistically improbable while also fulfilling promises to one major Democratic demographic and also satisfying, maybe, the desires of another.

cont:

As the Democrats would not step in, a debate is now going on to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, even though the GOP has nobody lined up to replace him. 

cont:

And now the vote is in and McCarthy has been removed, although it's not impossible he may be put back in the position.

Assuming that does not occur, McCarthy deserves his fate by trying to give too much to too many on the Republican right, a task that ultimately proved to be unworkable.  He's a figure in Donald Trump's revival, and therefore deserves the disrespect given to him by Democrats in this recent drama.  Who replaces him, however, is an open question.  Things could go from bad to worse.

In any event, the U.S. House of Representatives now looks about as bad as it ever has.

cont:

Only 8 Republicans voted to remove McCarthy.  The rest were Democrats. So, ironically, the hard right populists had to depend on the votes of the Democrats to remove him.

cont:

McCarthy has indicated he won't run for Speaker again.

And so his fate was sealed by Donald Trump, whom he kissed up to post Insurrection.  He deserves his fate, and his place in history will not be a comfortable one.

It'll be interesting to see if his district in Bakersfield reelects him.

And it will be interesting to see if the Republicans retain the House next fall.

October 4, 2023, cont:

Jim Jordan is running for Speaker of the House.

As is Steve Scalise.

October 7, 2023

A vague draft Trump movement exists, although it appears that Trump himself has chosen not to support it.  He's supporting Jim Jordan.  Of course, he had supported McCarthy.

Liz Cheney gave a speech decrying the nomination of Jordan yesterday in Missoula.

October 8, 2023

Forty-five Republicans have signed a letter labeling the removal of McCarthy as "shameful".

October 12, 2023

Steve Scalise received the nomination of the GOP yesterday and has dropped out of contention today, showing just what a mess the GOP is.

October 13, 2023

Now Jim Jordan has been nominated, although as of yet, he does not have the votes to secure the position.

October 18, 2023

Cynthia Lummis' support for the SAFER banking bill is causing some in Wyoming o think she's a closet supporter of legalizing marijuana, which shows just how odd the times really are.

There's no way she's a supporter of legalizing marijuana.

Banking for marijuana entities, in those states where there are no prohibitions, is very difficult as it still remains against Federal law, even if the Federal government doesn't enforce the law. As a result, it's heavily a cash only business in which the Sinaloa Cartel has stepped into to launder the money.  Given that, buyers of buds who think they're just supporting some innocent business, its health concern aside, are most likely financing organized crime.  Hence the link.


As an aside, Sinaloa has ordered its fentanyl producers to stop making it under penalty of death in order to avoid increasing U.S. law enforcement.

cont:

Jim Jordan lost his second vote for speaker, with one more Congressman opposing him than previously.

October 19, 2023

Republicans in Congress, waking up like a dedicated drunk in a strange hotel room in a strange city, has looked at Jim Jordan and said "eh. . . how did we get here?".

Jordan, jilted by his date, has now pulled out of the Speaker race, and the republic is the better for it.

It looks like Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry is going to retain that role, until they just give the job to him.

cont:  

Well, as the GOP has rejected the interim plan in favor of fully demonstrating its complete and total dysfunction, Jim Jordan sadly remains on the agenda and there will be a third vote on his canidacy to lead a body which he previously sought to undermine by supporting sedition.

If only ol' Jeff Davis had lived to see these days. . . ugh.

October 20, 2023

And Jordan, having lost a third vote, is back out.

The Freedom Caucus is taking a pounding in this drama and may very well lose some of its power as a result.

October 24, 2023

Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who voted to certify the election and who Trump has let it be known opposes, has the Republican nomination for Speaker.

This is interesting.  I don't know much about Emmer, but this would appear to be a drift back towards reality.

Trump has already posted against him, setting this up for a test of his power over Congressional Republicans.

cont:  

And Trump wins.  Emmer must have decided he could not get to 217 votes so he pulled his name out of consideration.

This is now beyond dysfunctional, it's absurd.  An out of office former President who is highly likely to end up in prison is able to control enough of the House to keep anyone from being chosen who doesn't bend to his will.

October 25, 2023

Continuing a Trump win, now is Mike Johnson of Louisiana, a lawyer by trade whose understanding of the constitution, his purported speciality, didn't prevent him from supporting sedition.

Sadly related threads:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. 47th Edition. Circus Maximus

Sunday, April 23, 2023

Monday, April 23, 1923. No Dope in Canada.


I continue to be amazed by how the Tribune, in 1923, routinely issued headlines that were largely irrelevant locally.

Cannabis was added to the Canadian list of prohibited narcotics.

Banning marijuana was part of the spirit of the times, just like liberalizing marijuana laws are part of ours.  This act in Canada nationalized a ban long before this was done in the United States.

Hyeongpyeongsa was organized in Korea by merchants and social leaders with the goal of eliminating the Korean caste system.  At that time, Korea had a class of untouchables known as Baekjeong.

Poland opened up the Port of Gdynia on the Baltic in order to attempt to avoid the labor problems the country had been having in Danzig.

Women appeared in Turkish film for the first time.

Kodak introduced 16mm film.

Delaware authorized the Delaware State Police.

Hoover helped break ground for a model house.


Friday, October 7, 2022

A pardon isn't an endorsement, or shouldn't be.

Probably the right thing to do.

Statement from President Biden on Marijuana Reform

OCTOBER 06, 2022

STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

As I often said during my campaign for President, no one should be in jail just for using or possessing marijuana.  Sending people to prison for possessing marijuana has upended too many lives and incarcerated people for conduct that many states no longer prohibit. Criminal records for marijuana possession have also imposed needless barriers to employment, housing, and educational opportunities.  And while white and Black and brown people use marijuana at similar rates, Black and brown people have been arrested, prosecuted, and convicted at disproportionate rates.

Today, I am announcing three steps that I am taking to end this failed approach.

First, I am announcing a pardon of all prior Federal offenses of simple possession of marijuana.  I have directed the Attorney General to develop an administrative process for the issuance of certificates of pardon to eligible individuals.  There are thousands of people who have prior Federal convictions for marijuana possession, who may be denied employment, housing, or educational opportunities as a result.  My action will help relieve the collateral consequences arising from these convictions.

Second, I am urging all Governors to do the same with regard to state offenses.  Just as no one should be in a Federal prison solely due to the possession of marijuana, no one should be in a local jail or state prison for that reason, either.

Third, I am asking the Secretary of Health and Human Services and the Attorney General to initiate the administrative process to review expeditiously how marijuana is scheduled under federal law.  Federal law currently classifies marijuana in Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, the classification meant for the most dangerous substances.  This is the same schedule as for heroin and LSD, and even higher than the classification of fentanyl and methamphetamine – the drugs that are driving our overdose epidemic. 

Finally, even as federal and state regulation of marijuana changes, important limitations on trafficking, marketing, and under-age sales should stay in place.

Too many lives have been upended because of our failed approach to marijuana.  It’s time that we right these wrongs. 

Be that as it may, this nation doesn't need to be any more stoned than it already is.  It says that something is deeply wrong with things.

Thursday, July 7, 2022

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist Part XXXV. Griner and Russian Law, Senseless Destruction, No. 10 Cat to get new Roommate, Russia threats on Alaska, Where's the followup?

Don't be stupid out there


Russia is not the United States.

Brittney Griner is accused of bringing CBD oil into Russia, supposedly in vape pens.

Did she do it?  I don't know.

But what I do know is that Russia isn't the US, where a celebrated athlete would likely get a slap on the hands for a drug violation, and where this isn't one.

Americans seem to believe for some reason that if they fall afoul of the law in a foreign nation, the US should rescue them.  The US has no obligation to do that.

And like it or not, other nations have much stricter laws on a host of things than the US does.  The US in contrast has lots and lots of laws, which isn't necessarily a good thing either.  In part, that leaves Americans with a sort of combined quite contempt and ignorance for the law. We don't know what all the laws are, so we don't tend to worry about them overly much.  And people can do some pretty bad stuff and not get punished all that much.

In contrast, there can be real penalties for things in foreign countries.  In one Southeast Asian country, for example, people get beat with canes for spitting gum on the street.  When I went to South Korea with the National Guard in the 1980s I recall us all being warned that you could be jailed for possessing a Playboy magazine, which didn't bother me as I wasn't going to be running around the Korean Peninsula with one, but that's a much different approach to pornography that the US has.

You get the point.

On Griner, my present understanding is that she plays basketball in Russia as women basketball players make less than male ones in the U.S.  So she goes there on the off season, where apparently they are then running their leagues.  I get that, and that's not just, but that's not a reason to be careless, if she was.  Her minority status, her numerous tattoos, her homosexual status, and her American citizenship all made her a target in a nation where all of those are either very unusual or not at all tolerated.  On top of that, there's a war going on.

There's not much the US can do to spring her.  The Russians will let her go when holding her no longer serves a purpose.

Senseless Destruction.

Somebody blew up the Georgia Guidestones.

For those who are not familiar with them, there's a really good episode of Jimmy Akin's Mysterious World about them, identifying the builder and why he did it.  For a really brief synopsis, based on memory, a physician who lived in another state built them out of concern that things were going down the tubes and giving his own personal guidance and thoughts on how to avoid going down the tubes in the future.

Frankly, they were very 1970ish.

Why would somebody blow them up?

Apparently, some people believed they were evil, which is silly.  

Regarding guidestones, with all the crap going on in the US right now, the builders thoughts probably wouldn't be altered if he were around right now.

Boris Johnson falls.

Americans tend to be so self focused on their own politics, which are distressingly weird right now, that they miss the politics of other nations.  On top of it, the American press is phenomenally bad on reporting political events in other nations.  Added to that, the press of the subject nations tends to be no better, so you are only left with the suggestion that he did something horrible, with nobody ever telling you what it was.  An article in the Guardian, for example, calls him the worst leader the Tories every had, but won't say why.

Canadian changes of power, by the way, are completely that way.  It's like the entire topic of the election is a big secret.

Anyhow, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned.  He will briefly remain Prime Minister until his replacement is chosen.

Usually this happens following an election with the party in control loses.  This, however, was due to an internal revolt in the Conservative Party.

Apparently a lot of this has to do with "Partygate", a scandal in which parties were held at No. 10 Downing Street (as if they were going to be able to keep that secret) which violated COVID restrictions in the UK.

I guess it says something in favor of the British that this would bring a Prime Minister down, whereas in the United States a sitting President would attempt to illegally retain power and nothing happen to him.

Russia threatens Alaska.

One of the Russian strategies to deal with its pathetic performance in Ukraine is to threaten everyone else.  Now it is threatening the United States, stating it might fight us to take Alaska back.

Seriously?

Usually, bullies have to win to be credible.

And now. . . ?

I'm not going to bother to name names, but there is a politician in Congress who came on Twitter nearly daily to blame Biden for rising gasoline prices.

Now gas prices have fallen for eight days straight.  So is he going on and giving credit?

Yeah. . . right.

Saturday, March 13, 2021

A Stream

Some mental meanderings, if you will.

ῥίζα γὰρ πάντων τῶν κακῶν ἐστιν ἡ φιλαργυρία*

1 Timothy.

I have to admit that I'm disappointed by the failure of Senate File 103, the bill that would have increased the number of hunting licenses reserved for for in state hunters.   That is, of course, open to skeptical retort as I'm an instate hunter, and I would have potentially benefitted from that.

But more than that, as I've noted here before, I'm basically a subsistence hunter and I'm serious about it.  I'm not a "head hunter".  Indeed, I don't personally grasp the amount of money that people will spend to hunt out of state, but I suppose that its based on retaining a connection with the wild they've lost through urbanization.  Maybe that is what makes sense of it.  What I think would make more sense, personally, is to hunt locally, and if that's too expensive, they should focus their efforts accordingly to make it less so.  But because they don't, and because their expenditures in Wyoming are part of the economy, we cater to that and the bill didn't pass. 

Setting aside the tourist dollars aspect of it, and just the monetary and subsistence aspect of it, this is one of those putting values over money type of judgments that seems to be lacking a lot in the modern world, and indeed, in fairness, is generally lacking in any one era.  The point of outfitters and the opponents of the bill in the legislature is that outfitting and out of state hunting is a business in the state, it brings dollars into the state, and we shouldn't hurt business.  And there's a lot to be sympathetic about in that argument, particularly as the state is really hurting for cash. But there's philosophical reasons to set monetary concerns aside on some things.  There are things that we should value over money in ways that are hard to define as they're all intellectual.

Also, pure monetary arguments can be really bad ones, and generally almost every really awful idea that has made the world worse has some economic aspect to it.  Henry VIII gained support fraudulently usurping Papal authority in the English church not so much by brilliant theological arguments, which were lacking for his campaign, but by driving monks out of monasteries and handing them over to his supporters.  It was devastating in every way and reverberates through society today, but when you get right down to it, temporal monetary considerations trumped the concerns stretching out to eternity.  Money often wins.

Still, it shouldn't.


Monetary considerations played into a legislative argument this past week on another topic.  Not that this is surprise, that plays into a lot of arguments in Cheyenne.  This one was about marijuana.  There's a bill to legalize it and regulate it basically like alcohol.  "The state would generate a lot of money from taxing it" came up as an argument.

That's true, but the state would also generate a lot of money by legalizing heroin and taxing it, or legalizing prostitution and taxing that.  You get the point.  Things aren't made illegal because they have a negative taxation aspect to them.

Indeed, most of the "we'll tax it" type of arguments for legalizing something that has as association with vice are not well thought out anyhow, as rarely does anyone balance the taxation against the costs the vice creates.  Nobody, that is, figures out how much caring for those who are permanently wasted on dope will cost, and contrary to what people assert, that will happen.

When I was a National Guardsmen I ran into one of my former soldiers on the street, after he was discharged.  He asked what I thought he should do as he was so badly addicted to marijuana he couldn't get off of it.  I guess it was nice to be asked, but still in my 20s, even as an NCO, I didn't really know what to tell him.  I offered some advice, but I don't recall what it was.  More recently somebody I know related to me how one of their daughters had gone to school, dropped out, and came home a wreck as she was addicted to it and in a state of severe depression.  They got her off of it, but she's now working in a hopelessly low paying occupation and likely will live a really marginal life.

I don't see a reason to encourage any more stupefaction of our society than we already have.  If it were up to me, I wouldn't have repealed prohibition in the 1930s, and I'm not a teetotaler.  

I know why we do these things, however.  We've built a world that we don't like much, and its easier to spend our cash blotting it out from our consciousness than to really address it.  Or, and probably more accurately, those who benefit from the society we've created are profiting mightily from it and they'd resist any changes.  It's easier for them to just hand you a joint.

If we command our wealth, we shall be rich and free. If our wealth commands us, we are poor indeed. 

Edmund Burke

I was stunned this past week to learn that the United States has now authorized more money to be spent on pandemic relief than it spend on the New Deal.  It's also more money than the United States fought fighting every war we've fought since the end of the Cold War combined.

That's insane.

I get that something needed to be done, but that didn't need to be done. There's no way to spend that sort of vast amount of money well or wisely.  It will be wasted.  It will also be inflationary.

I'm not yet 60, but I can see it approaching and I pretty much figure, with this sort of vast injection of cash into the economy, inflation is inevitable  Goodbye retirement.

Now, that's sort of a selfish view, but at some point a person must be realistic.  In looking at the actual impact of pandemic on the economy it turns out that most of the economy was hardly impacted at all.  What was massively impacted was the service sector.  No matter, relief checks are going out to people who never lost their jobs and were never in danger of losing them.

The section of the economy that did find their work impaired is fairly large, around 10,000,000 people.  That's a lot of people, but it's actually a small percentage of workers.  And the money being thrown around to everyone won't help them much, as a large percentage of those jobs are never coming back.  Lots of people acclimated to working from home where they are comfortable, don't have to buy as many work clothes, can be around their cats, dogs and families, and don't have to put up with the guy three cubicles down who thinks that basketball is interesting.

Because they aren't coming back, not as many restaurants and bars are either. They just aren't.

Focusing that money where it was needed would have been a good idea. Throwing out checks to everyone on the assumption that people are going to run out and buy 500 cups of Starbucks doesn't make any sense at all.

As a further aside on this, the Democratic controlled House of Representatives seems set to act on a bunch of social policy bills of a "progressive" nature.  I haven't heard of their acting on a "Green New Deal" slate yet, but if they ever intended to, this probably shot their bolt.  It's not really possible to have any kind of New Deal when you just spent way more money than the New Deal itself cost, unless you are willing to super heat the economy.

The irony of all of this is that it can't really be said that the current occupants of Congress don't remember the inflation of the 1970s and how awful that was.  They must, as a lot of them were there then, or at least in politics.  The same generation that came up in the awful early 1970s has never left power.

 


He who loses money, loses much; He who loses a friend, loses much more; He who loses faith, loses all.

Eleanor Roosevelt

I had an interesting conversation with a coworker the other day who is somewhat obsessed about his graduating high school senior's plans.  I can understand that, the future of children when you have them, particularly those whose future you can not accurately foresee, is a constant and deep worry for parents.

It lead in a strange direction, however, and that lead me to ponder something further.

My father's father left home when he was 13 years old to go to work.  My mother's grandfather started working as an office boy, the same occupation my father's father started off as, when he was still a child.  I don't even think he was a teenager at the time.  My father's grandmother came to the United States from Ireland when she was 3 years old, accompanied by her 19 year old sister who raised her.  She never saw her parents after age 3 again.  My mother was descendant in part from Quebecois, which in turn means that she was also descendant almost certainly (and certainly my DNA would support that) from orphans from Ireland adopted right off the docks in Quebec, the survivors of Coffin Ships who lost their parents in the journey from Ireland and who would be raised as French speaking Quebecois.

I note all that for a tricky reason.

All of the people here I can identify went on to successful lives.  My father's father ultimately briefly came back to Iowa and then went on to Colorado as a businessman, married, and then pursued his career successfully to Nebraska and then Wyoming.  My father's grandmother moved, probably with her sister, to Colorado and married a shopkeeper in Leadville, and retired to Denver.  My mother's grandfather ultimately came to be the CEO of the company he started off as an office boy for.  They all had successful, and moral, lives and had successful families.

They also all lived in an era when the impact of immorality was pretty obvious and, while they were not the recipients of advanced degrees, the plain facts of biology were known and obvious to all.  We've lost all of that.

Wealth seems to be a lot of the reason why.  They all spent part of their lives living hand to mouth, although not all of them by any means.  Very few people do that now, which is overall a good thing.  But it's also the case that society has become so rich that there are now a lot of people who are made miserable by it.  Part of that is that people have a lot of time and money to spend on what are really basic urges, and to stray off in ways in which they come to try to self identify themselves by things that were in the background, but not self defining, in earlier eras.  People are now identifying themselves by their diets and sexual urges, for example.

Only a vastly rich society can spend so much time thinking about food and sex and define individuals in society that way.  If you move from Cork to Victorville Colorado and its 1890, for example, self defining yourself as a vegan would not only not occur, it'd be regarded as stupid, as it would have been stupid.

This doesn't mean that our vast wealth has liberated us from such things, but rather its seemingly enslaved us to our basest instincts.  Free from nature and distant from nature's God, we want to be gods ourselves, but can't seemingly think of a better way to do that than to redefine the most basic nature's that God has given us.  

That can't and won't go on forever, but the longer it goes on the worse the fall and recovery will be.


With luck, it might even snow for us.

Haruki Murakami

It wasn't snowing when I got up.

All the second half of this week the weather report has been promising a massive amount of snow.  The southeastern part of the state is supposed to get up to three feet of snow.

I'm really skeptical that will happen.  It isn't snowing here yet.  We'll see.  Anyway you look at it we really do need the snow or we're going to be in a severe drought this summer.

The thing that always surprises me in these circumstances are the reactions to the weather.  There's lots of complaining about it.  But other than drive to work in it, we don't really have to deal with it for the most part, unless you are employed in an outdoor profession, which is indeed totally different.

Lawyers who do litigation used to have to contend with the weather constantly, but now that everything is done via the internet, this isn't the case anymore.  The last major winter legal trip I made was to Baker Montana, and that's now over a year ago.  The weather wasn't great when I did that, to be sure, but I used to contend with winter travel constantly.  Not now.  And I wonder if the days of travel will really ever come back.  They probably won't.  It's changed much about work, including even the psychology of it.

Not that I haven't done some traveling, even during the pandemic.  And indeed, I've managed to catch bad winter weather twice while doing it, although both were daytrips.

Anyhow, for most people, winter snowstorms merely mean that you drive to work in the snow.  Not everyone does that well, however.  I was nearly killed earlier this week when some person on a snow day rocketed through a red light and nearly hit me.  They never slowed down.  And I've been seeing my fair share of out of state license plates on cars of what may well be new residents in which they're driving in an obviously scared condition.  If we get hit again COVID refugees will likely start rethinking their relocation.

Indeed, the weather in Wyoming is just flat out bad in ways that don't occur to most Wyomingites but which are actually bad and difficult to explain.  A Texas friend of mine once pointed out to me that Wyoming's northernmost latitude is still further south than northern France, which it is.  Indeed, much of Wyoming's latitude is on the same plain as northern Italy or southern France.  The reason he pointed this out is that he was convinced that because this is our latitude we must have the same weather than the south of France does.

Not hardly.

We're deep in the interior of the plains and our winters are long and summers short. We have wind constantly all year long.  Ft. Fetterman, outside of what is now Douglas Wyoming, had the highest insanity rate in the Frontier Army, and the wind and weather conditions are often blamed for that.  Every other year its noted that Wyoming has a high rate of depression and that this contributes to it as well, most likely for immigrants who come in here thinking that the nice conditions they saw in June are what we have all year long.  Indeed, I once read a deluded comment by somebody who bought some land outside of Bosler Wyoming about how they intended to retire there from their university job in California and then the only worry they'd have is which horse to ride that day.  Well, they don't ride horses outside of Bosler in January except by absolute necessity.  My guess is that person, if they moved out at all, hated Wyoming by March.

Be that as it may, our indoor life everywhere has insulated us from really dealing with the weather.  Last week the county shut its offices and the school district did as well.  I simply drove to work, not realizing that it was that bad.  Right now, the State of Colorado, which likes to have a massive fit about everything has mobilized the Colorado National Guard for the storm.

Well, like Dire Straits sang, "Money for nothing and kicks for free".

One thing that weather like this usually brings up is a comment to the effect that "on days like this it sure is nice to work indoors".  I've honestly never thought that.  Maybe its growing up here and being a semi feral person, but as long as I don't have to brave the highways, I like the big storms.

__________________________________________________________________________________

* "[F]or the root of all evils is the love of money."

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist Part 7. One more won't hurt me. . .

or so conservatives must think.

Senator Joseph McCarthy.  McCarthy was actually largely correct in his accusations, once you see what they really were, and who they were actually made against.  He very clearly had an inside connection with somebody with intelligence inside the government.  My guess is that it was J. Edgar Hoover.  At any rate, while he was correct, he became personally so distasteful that he permanently damaged his cause and even later books that have shown the validity of his accusations have failed to repair his reputation or that of his cause.  He was loved at the time, of course, until he wasn't. There's a lesson here.

Donald Trump has been invited to speak at CPAC in Orlando, this Sunday.

Why would they do this? This will confirm Democrats and Independents, and traditional Republicans, in their choice not to go with the GOP this year, further decrease its influence, and make it harder for those who hold populist views seriously without it looking like simply Trump worship.

People like Victor David Hanson like to speak of "Trump Derangement Syndrome". While that may be worth talking about, the fact is that Trump didn't win the popular vote by any measure either time he ran.  He's not a popular man with the majority of Americans and by inviting him, the issues that concern populist Republicans are being fused to Trump in a way that will guaranty their electoral decimation in upcoming elections.

This is a serious matter.  Populists do have a collection of valid concerns and valid points about them. But Trump's effort at overturning the election and failure to distance himself from extremist are tarring all of them and the entire movement with the same brush.  The tighter the grip Trump has on any section of the GOP, the less likely it is to win anything at the national level going forward, and the more likely that the result will be a permanent shift of the American political center to the left.

McCarthy may have been right about most of the things he was complaining about in the 1950s.  But he was easy to dislike and has become permanently disliked. There's a lesson from history here and we all know what happens to people who fail to listen to history.

Nonetheless, what is clear at this point is that the traditional conservative wing of the party is now in full retreat.  Mitch McConnell, who only a couple of weeks ago sounded like he wanted to have Trump arrested, has stated he'd vote for him if he ran in 2024.  And right now, quite frankly, it looks like such a run is really likely, something that even a few weeks ago would have been regarded as highly unlikely.  As it remains unlikely that Joe Biden will run again, that would likely pit Trump against Kamala Harris, if . . . 

Doesn't anyone notice how old these people are?

If, that is, Trump hasn't passed on simply due to old age, or become mentally feeble due to the same reason.  

It's bizarre to see how even at this late state of the Baby Boom generation, people remain seriously entrenched in the seeming view that only they can lead the nation.  A person would have had good reason to believe that Joe Biden would have been the last Boomer President.  Now, that's not all that certain, as nothing in this political climate is very certain.

Restricting Balloting.

There's a lot of GOP effort being expended to address, proponents claim, chances of "election fraud", even though there's next to none of it occurring.

In Wyoming, legislators have a couple of bills floating on  the topic.  Senators Barrasso and Lummis have signed on to a Federal bill that will fail which will basically prevent States from making the reforms they did to address the still ongoing Coronavirus Pandemic.  The law proposes to eliminate unmonitored ballot collection boxes (one of which I saw in Rawlins just last week) and to require states to send absentee ballots only to those requesting them.

This is another issue that will come to haunt the GOP. There's no evidence of widespread ballot fraud at all, and this plays into the Democratic claim that the Republicans are seeking to restrict the vote.  While this will play to the Trumpite base, it won't play to the traditional wing of the party, which is now simply leaving it.

XX Chromosomes and Scouting


The first group of female Eagle Scouts received that status this week.

First of all, that's great for this group of young women. Achieving Eagle Scout status is hard to do, and they deserve praise for their accomplishments.

But it's also sad in a way in that its a further erosion of, well dare we say it, manliness.

Girls can be girls, but boys can't really be boys anymore, even virtuous boys, which was what the Boy Scouts were all about originally.

Let's be honest.  Because human nature remains human nature no matter how woke some may be and wish for everything to be, there are fundamental differences between men and women, and boys and girls, at every level.  Scouting recognized that, and hence that's why there was a Boy Scouts and a Girl Scouts.

While I note that I'm not an adherent every time I cite them, and then I go on to cite them, Strauss and How, in their generational theory (there's a category link to it below) argue that the character of men is different in different cycles as a whole (not necessarily individually) due to the views of women in any particular period.  So, for a lack of a better way to illustrate it, in some eras women want a bunch of touchy feely wimps such as featured on This Is Us.  In others, they want Ethan Edwards from The Searchers.

This makes sense from a evolutionary biology prospective, as women's role in elemental societies is, well, more societal than men's.  But rather crudely, if you live in a society that's about to be attacked, you want guys who are capable of handling that.  If you live in one where there's no risk of being attacked, you might now want guys who are looking for fights.

There's a lot more to this than that, but we live in an oddly emasculating era which has superseded a highly masculine one.  If Strauss and How are right, generational succession goes from Hero, Artist Prophet to Nomad.  They also figure the categories of generations by years a bit more differently, which is to their credit, as they would have the Baby Boom Generation ending earlier than some others do.   You can read all about that elsewhere, but they also have a concept of cyclical crises and periods of stability that impact generations, with women generally being the cultural influencers that impact male character patterns, if not necessarily individual males, at any one time.

Okay, so what?

Well, we are living in a very female influenced era culturally.  One that has even seen the intrusion of women into roles that are not only traditionally male, but arguably biologically male, from an evolutionary biological prospective and even attacks on the concept of gender itself, biologically unsounds though that may be.  And part of what occurs, when this occurs, is that men, and before that boys, really have no refuge in which they can be just guys.

This doesn't mean there's some previous era in which everything in regard to male/female roles was perfectly defined, although in a lot of ways that changes much less than people like to imagine, and perceptions of change have more to do with economic changes in broad economies at any one time then the do with actual changes in cultural views.  And it doesn't mean that there should be some sort of strict segregation between boys and girls at all times. Indeed, at least in my view, strict segregation at the primary school level actually tends to encourage vices, and the societies that practice that usually see the results later on in men and women who never learned about the others in their formative years with resulting permanent impacts on their characters.

But it does mean that there ought to be at least some places where boys can go just to be boys, and to learn, well, many things.  And the same is true in the opposite direction for girls. And indeed, for girls, it still is.  There's been no male penetration into deeply female roles or organizations in any meaningful sense.  Find a boy in the Girl Scouts and chances are high that you are going to find an odd storty behind it, and one that is probably vested in that person's parents.

Find a girl in the Boy Scouts, or now just the Scouts, and what you'll find is high achieving girls.  You'll also soon fine less manly boys in the same organizations, which have been having troubles recently anyhow, and soon just fewer boys in general.  Some will remain, but they won't be the same group that would have been there otherwise, and those who are there, aren't going to learn the same lessons they would have otherwise.  Overall, everyone will suffer for that.*

They forgot what society they lived in


People like Mike Lindell, that is.

Lindell is the founder of the My Pillow company. I don't know anything about the pillows and not that much about Lindell, other than his personal story is really a classic rags to riches type tale.  

In the U.S., that's enough to cause people to love and hate you, which is something to keep in mind.  He's also a vocal Evangelical Christian, which also will draw praise while drawing some dislike as well.  None of that, however, is what he's now in trouble for.

Lindell has been sued by Dominion Voting which is sick and tired of its voting machines being slammed.  Lindell made claims that Dominion rigged the election for Joe Biden, a statement for which not only is there no evidence, it's demonstrably false.  Dominion is a business and they don't like their product being hammered by falsehoods, no deeply believed by those who are asserting those falsehoods.

People like Victor David Hanson like to talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome which they claim causes people on the left to be completely irrational about Donald Trump. An argument can be made that some of that did in fact exist during the Trump Administration, particularly early on. The problem is that the same term can also apply to Trump's diehard supporters.

One of the things about Trump is, quite frankly, that while he had real accomplishments he has major character defects.  He's boorish, crude, and has had a history of questionable behavior with women.  He's also a prima donna and narcissist who simply can't stand the thought of public criticism or losing.  

In normal US politics that would doom a person, but it didn't with Trump.  A lot of his base supporters originally didn't care about any of that as long as he acted as a wrecker.  Over time, he's developed a personality cult that nearly worships him, in spite of all of his obvious faults.  People in that category suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome as well as they can't be objective at all about Trump.

This doesn't apply to every Trump supporter by any means.  But it applies to some.  Guys like Lindell and Patrick Coffin seem to have simply fallen off the reality wagon and are willing to endorse all sorts of conspiracy theories about one thing or another.  Coffin, who used to be an objective conservative religious voice now hosts people who see Bill Gates conspiring to create a pandemic in order to create a new world order.  Lindell boosted the Dominion nonsense.  

Lindell is now one of several figures getting sued by Dominion. Dominion no doubt doesn't hope to be reimbursed by them for their losses, whatever those may be, but is out to repair its reputation through litigation. The litigation will achieve that.

Dopey New Jersey


The Garden State has legalized weed.  Because that's what people in New Jersey really need to be, stoned.

Not that New Jersey is by any means alone in this, to be sure.  It's just following the pack.  

It does say something that in early 21st Century America, however, one of the biggest movements of the day is one that allows people to be oblivious.

Exit Franco

Francisco and Ramon Franco, 1925, in North Africa.

A statute honoring Francisco Franco's role as a commander in the Rif War, put up in 1978 was taken down this past week.  Apparently it was the last one, which is remarkable in part as it was put up in the 1970s.

Franco had his supporters in Spain during his long dictatorship, as well as his supporters elsewhere.  All that now seems definitively in the past.  Having said that, this has been a strange trip.  Franco had his supporters in the west during the civil war period that proceeded World War Two, and even had some after that.  Indeed, quite a few.  During much of the 30s he was, however, disdained by the American left including the popular media.  World War Two certainly increased that disdain, and for good reasons, as he crept up on joining Nazi Germany and fascist Italy in the war.  By war's end, however, he was courting the west.  His regime died with him, which he was aware would occur, but he retained sufficient support for a monument to his command in the Spain's colonist Rif campaign was still erected, which is pretty amazing really. And we just passed the 40th anniversary of the attempted 1981 Fracoist coup, which of course failed.

Nobody in Span is going to try a Francoist coup now.

Streaming


Paramount movies has announced it will provide movies for streaming 45 days after their initial release.

Sign of the times.

Footnotes

*And, no, I wasn't an Eagle Scout.

I was in Scouting so briefly that I usually say I was never a Boy Scout.  In actuality I was, but as noted, very briefly.

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Risk. Coronavirus, Influenza, and Other Scary and Not Scary Things.

Gasoline Alley, February 9, 1920.  In 1920 there was a great deal of concern about the revival of the prior two years horrific flu epidemic.

Let me by start off by noting that I'm not saying that the Corona Virus is just a bogus scare.  It might turn into a true human disaster.

We don't know that yet.

It might, but it might not.  It probably actually won't.

None of which is a comfort to you if you are dying from it.

According to some statistics that are probably now completely obsolete as they change every day, there have been 37,592 confirmed cases in the Coronavirus, almost all of them in China.  814 people have died (more than that as the death toll reached 100 in one day this past week, and these figures are from January).  2,920 people have recovered from the virus after having it. Add that up and it tells us that most of the people who have been infected are infected right now.

Scary?

Well, last flu season 45,000,000 Americans were infected by the flu virus, of which 61,000 died.  Over 800,000 were hospitalized. Last year was a really bad year for the flu, we'd note, and the number of Americans who died from it were about double the norm.  So far, this year, between 21,000,000 and 30,000,000 Americans have come down with the flu, of which about 30,000 have died.

This, we would note, places the current flu season in the category of being a bad one. February is the worst month for the flu, normally, and we already have seen a year which would be more or less average for infection and death.

Which brings me to my point.

Yes, people worry about the flu, but not like they do strange new exotic viruses.  

But the flu is a real killer.

The flu killed millions in a pandemic that we've discussed here, which raged across the globe killing tens of millions just a century ago. That pandemic still isn't understood very well, and it may never be.  But if you are reading this today, you have DNA from that flu virus in you.  Every living human being, save perhaps those who live in truly remote regions where it never touched, does.  Today, in fact, the same strain still exists, in closely mutated form, and will make you sick. But it won't kill you.

Sooner or later there will be something like the 1918-19 Flu again, most probably.  Perhaps we've developed our medical technology so far that this won't occur, but it probably will.  And with the larger human population of today, it'll be every bit as bad, probably, as the 1918-19 Pandemic was.  Maybe worse.

But if you were a betting medical man, the bet would be that it will be the flu. . . not Coronavirus, SARS or Ebola or any of the other viruses that the news media and the general public like to freak out about.


Indeed, while the scientific memory of the 18-19 Flu remains very strong, and causes the annual focus on the developing strain in the medical community, the scientific knowledge of the American public has bizarrely declined in recent decades to the point where while we now have vaccines that  can address it, people will forgo having themselves or their children vaccinated or even treated because they are ignorant of science.  Just this past week a four year old child died because his ignorant mother took advice from an Anti Vaccination Facebook group about treating him with Tamilflu.  She's a moron.  They're idiots.  They are culpable in his death. But such things are now common in the US now, while also running around like chickens with our heads cut off about new viruses also is.

Sailor and Red Cross nurse at the site of a munitions plant explosion, October 5, 1918, wearing mask for protection against the flu.

Indeed, the ability to calculate risk is a really interesting topic, and the topic of infectious disease, and health in general, gives many such examples.

Humans, in their long history, have battled with many killer diseases.  Interestingly, in earlier eras, while these diseases did scare us, rightfully, we often carried on carrying on in the face of a massive death toll anyhow.  This is so much the case than modern historians now like to assert, falsely, that the news of an outbreak was suppressed.

This is very much the case with the 18-19 flu.  It was bad, and communities did end up closing schools and churches, but for the most part people carried on to a remarkable degree.  Now you hear all the time that the news was suppressed in the press.  It most definitely wasn't.  It was front page news the entire time, including the daily death toll in the community.  People very much knew what was going on and just how bad it was.


Diseases like smallpox provide another example.  Smallpox plagued humans for centuries and people worried greatly about it, but for the most part they carried on enduring risks we would not if faced with a similar disease today.  In really desperate situations people would inoculate themselves or have themselves inoculated, risky as it involved a live vaccine, but that's because they were living and working in conditions where they couldn't avoid the disease.

American with smallpox, 1912.

The only disease that's really been like that in modern times has been the flu.  It visits us every year, and some years its really bad.  We know what we can do about it, but we don't worry all that much about it really, even though it remains a first rate killer.

Instead we worry about the exotic.

In recent years the first disease we really freaked out about was AIDS.  AIDS is a horrific disease, but it's also largely behaviorally based.  During the height of the freaking out about it there were suggestions that it was going to become airborne or the like.  There was never any chance of that. Rather, it was always a sexually transmitted disease, of more than one strain.  In the Western world the overwhelming majority of individuals who contracted it and still do, do so through homosexual sex.  In Africa, where the strain is different, the overwhelming majority of people who contract it do so through heterosexual sex.  There are definitely other ways it has been transmitted, but the key to it was sex.  It's a sexually transmitted disease. As a sexually transmitted disease, it's one whose mode of transmission is an automatic limiter and it was never going to be as deadly as the flu in any one year or even close to being.

This is the case, we'd note, with all sexually transmitted diseases, all of which have increased in recent years as sexual conduct has become less and less governed by common sense, morality and science.  People are bad at calculating risk.

Indeed, diseases provide interesting examples about the miscalculation of risks of all sorts.  During the height of the AIDS epidemic the common advice for members of the demographic most threatened with it was to employ condoms, which given the failure rate of the same is really a poor calculation of risk.  The obvious recommendation that could be made that would have completely avoided the risk was rarely given.  "Avoid sex" or at least "avoid sex with people you know with certainty not to be infected" wasn't the common advice.

The flip-side of this is provided by the decades running advice on avoiding "red meat" out of cancer and other health concerns.  In reality, the danger posed by red meat is very small, statistically.  Abstaining from meat of all types is, on the other hand, universally dangerous to people who practice it, requiring that such persons go to great lengths to find artificial substitutes for the things they would have acquired from meat.  And yet, because of this marginal risk, people abstain from meat and chose instead to incur greater health risks in the exchange.

Interesting examples of poor calculation of risks are provided by smoking and drinking as well.  Drinking, as it has an interesting mixed history, is one we'll look at first.


Alcohol poses very real risks to those who consume it, which has been known for a long time. Alcohol itself is a poison.  Simply drinking too much alcohol in a single setting will kill you.  However, we also know that human beings have a genetically developed tolerance for the poison up to a certain level, in most, but not all, populations.  That tells us, from an evolutionary biological prospective, that at some point human beings developed a tolerance for something that's a manufactured poison, for some reason.  That's downright odd.

The reason for it initially seems to be that primitive beer was a food source.  Liquid bread, basically.  As grains aren't capable of being harvested around the calendar, beer was a way to keep it.  Early beers were flat and probably heavy duty, sort of like Guinness Stout, basically.  Every grain growing cultures seems to have developed them.  Even early on, however, the intoxication aspect of it was known, which is reflected in graffiti in huts left by the builders of the pyramids.

Additionally, brewing beer provided a safer liquid to drink than water in many places, indeed darned near all places, that routinely brewed it.  In a very primitive world water was basically safe to drink, but as soon as there were sufficient people and sufficient domestic animals belonging to those people, that changed.  Water from early times up through the dawn of the 20th Century was often pretty darned dangerous.

People debate on this a bit, but basically the attention required to brew beer, or to vint wine, in and of itself, was sufficient to make it safe for consumption. So in a way, as some people like to argue, the process, rather than the alcohol, made it safe.  Others say, no, the alcohol did it.  No matter, which ever did it, it was safe to drink and was drank in many areas in gigantic quantities year around.  Medieval European farm workers, for examples, drank liters of beer per day.  Scandinavians in the Middle Ages started the day off with hot beer.

And while the Middle Ages were very full of beer and wine, European cultures continued a really heavy alcohol consumption up through the 1950s.  It's really only after that it started to drop off, and for much of the original safe drink water concern reason.

But that didn't mean that Middle Ages Brew was 100% good for you.  It meant the water was riskier.

In modern terms, now that the threat of the water is over, the risk calculation has really changed.  Physicians debate it but alcohol consumption is somewhere between 100% risky to some degree to okay if done very moderately.  Most drinkers who are more than casual drinkers exceed the recommended consumption rates routinely.  There are some known health benefits to drinking, as is often cited, but as often pointed out, they're marginal.  People make the risk calculation today, but frankly they probably, much like the condom example given above, err on the side of the risk, rather than the safe approach.

Alcohol isn't the only drug like this, by the way.  Opium poppies were first used to season bread by Medieval Italians specifically because their lives were so hard and painful it dulled their wits.  That's a hard thing to accept but it was the case.  So it was like alcohol in a way.  Having somewhat dulled wits is a bad deal, but the risk calculation to overcome the pain was deemed worth it.  Modern poppy seed bread isn't made with opium poppies today and the risks associated with opium in any form grossly exceed a casual use such as that.

Coca leaves in the Andes actually served a similar function for natives living at  high altitudes. While their physical morphology actually has evolved to endure high altitude living, it's still so problematic that adults at one time spent a lot of the day chewing on coca just to have dulled wits and therefore not endure the pain of daily living the same way.  In modern times, however, the drugs that stem from coca are far riskier to use for any purpose than any calculation of risk would support.


Tobacco use, and soon marijuana use, travel the same path. Tobacco was claimed to have benefits at one time but it never really did.  Marijuana use will prove to be the same.  They're risky and their users grossly underestimate the very well known risk associated with them.

Indeed, this takes us back to the vaccination topic. Are there any risks at all in being vaccinated for an infectious disease?  Well, yes, but not the ones that are promoted by people whose claim to fame is having been a Playboy Photographic Prostitute.  Some people do get sick from vaccinations, and indeed I'm one of them, having been put in the hospital due to an Army vaccination for yellow fever. It turned out that I was allergic to one of the constituents.  And I've actually seen a person come down with a mild case of smallpox due to an Army vaccination, which must have meant that there was a little live vaccine in the vaccine we received and he hadn't been previously inoculated.

But those are rare examples and the risk run that a person has a reaction of that type are much lower than the risk posed by not getting the vaccination.  Yellow Fever is really bad, and so is a full case of smallpox.

All which gets back to risk.  People are bad at calculating it.  Everyone runs risks every day, but people chose to freak out about the small risks such as coronavirus suddenly being everywhere or eating red meat, and forgo worrying about the ones they are seemingly acclimated to, like the flu.