Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 6. “Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.”

Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2025.

May 14, 2025

Wyoming Delegation Not Supportive Of Trump's Idea Of Tax Hike For The Rich

So Barrasso and Lummis separate from Trump on this?

Neither one of them are actually Trump supporters in terms of their personal beliefs, but have adopted his views for political survival in Wyoming, which is fanatically pro Trump.  Everyone is well aware that the budget is in a crisis stage and at some point soon the US needs to have a balanced budget. That can only be done through raising taxes, and they know it.

Additionally, taxing the wealthy will not hurt the economy, and everyone knows that.  Tax rates for the wealthy were much higher in prior decades with no ill effect on the economy.

A matter of critical interest.

Wyoming Is The Second Most Expensive State For Beer Lovers

And one Wyomingites just won't believe

Reaction To Trump Tariffs Helps Push Wyoming Oil Prices To Four-Year Low

This is an absolute fact, but if you follow the story on Facebook, a lot of Wyomingites just won't believe it. That would mean Trump is hurting the local economy, and they can't accept that. . . at least not yet.

Oil is at $62.02/bbl this morning.

May 15, 2025

Given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins. 

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon.

Oil is at $61.60/bbl.

May 17, 2025

Thanks to Republican mishandling of the economy, specifically increasing debt, Moody's downgraded the economy from Aaa to Aa1.

The GOP can't seem to grasp that you actually have to pay for the government.

New Jersey transit engineers are on strike.

Trump's "Big Beautiful Budget Bill", which would add $4T in debt, failed 16-21 in the House Budget Committee.

The irony is that those voting against it want more spending cuts, but only increased taxes will address this developing crisis.

Let's put this in bold, as people just don't seem to grasp it.

THE UNITED STATES CAN'T "CUT" ITS WAY OUT OF ITS BUDGET CRISIS.  IT MUST RAISE TAXES.

Cont:

It's really time to stop calling Trump a businessman:

He's a real estate developer. Clearly he's otherwise a business illiterate.

May 19, 2025

The Trump deficit expanding budget bill made it out of committee on a 17-16 vote with those who were to vote no, voting present.

This bill will be a disaster for already an already irresponsible Federal government.  Taxes need to be raised on income, particularly upper incomes to make the budget balance and this insanity cease.

May 22, 2025

The House of Representatives passed by a margin of one a funding bill that will swell the deficit disastrously while making cuts in Medicaid and food stamp while adding to border security.  Taxes will be cut, when they should be raised, and will irrationally be eliminated on tips and overtime.

Trump, who speaks oddly at best, has called this his "big beautiful tax bill"

Walmart is cutting 1,500 corporate jobs.

The stock market is crashing because of the bad tax bill. The bond market is flat.

West Texas crude is back down to $60.96.

Cont:

The "tip" exemption appears to be for "cash tips".

FWIW, bar tenders tend to get cash tips, but restaurant workers less and less.  FWIW, cash tips are notoriously underreported anyway, as they're impossible to keep track of.

May 23, 2025

Hageman’s Budget Vote Critical As House Passes One Big Beautiful Act 215-214

The next one is interesting:

Barrasso Cheers Vote To Kill California Mandate To ‘Force-Feed’ EVs On Everyone

Republicans are for state's rights, except when the state exercises the right to do something they don't like.

Likewise, the GOP is for local control, but really isn't.

At Lusk Town Meeting, Locals Say Wind Projects Have Ended Friendships

Developer Of Controversial Casper Gravel Mine Wants To Renew State Leases

Trump:

What does the "thank you for our attention to this matter" intend to do?

May 29, 2025

Federal trade court blocks Trump's emergency tariffs, saying he overstepped authority

That the power wasn't there was obvious.  Now the question is whether the Trump administration will obey the Court.

May 30, 2025

An appeals court is allowing the tariffs to be collected while the matter is on appeal, which is a poor ruling.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, China, Donald Trump, Economics, Food, Jerome Powell, Petroleum, Red Caesar, The Madness of King Donald, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

George Will: US debt crisis could be coming soon | On Balance

 Trump now has his Big Beautiful Bill. Who talks that way? 

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 1. The way too early edition.

April 10, 2025

Freedom Caucus leader John Bear went on record at a meeting of legislators on how to handle the upcoming populist initiative to reduce property taxes by 50%, after they've just been reduced by 25%, as favoring completely eliminating property taxes in favor of sales taxes.

On the imported geezer reduce my property taxes on the house I bought after I moved here from California initiative, he feels that the effect wouldn't be cumulative (50% of the just reduced 25%), while other legislators do.

May 2, 2025

A press interview of Freedeom Caucus member Bear reveals the WFC wants to treat the Wyoming budget to some DOGEy style actions, particularly in regard to grants and loans.

May 4, 2025

Wyoming Republicans Elect Sheridan's Bryan Miller As New Party Chairman

I don't know anything about the woman from Teton County who was his competition, but Miller was another individual who spent a career in the military, and therefore was a lifelong recipient of public funds, and who has now returned as an opponent of the Federal government.

May 7, 2025

Wyoming Legislature finalizes list of ‘off-season’ topics for study

May 9, 2025

Chuck Gray Supports 22 New Election-Reform Bills, Committee To Study 10

Some of these bills are frankly nuts.

May 19, 2025

Wyoming lawmakers go after funding for state associations that sometimes oppose their bills: Green River Rep. Marlene Brady is leading the charge on prohibiting cities, towns and counties from paying dues to elected officials’ associations.

May 21, 2025

Legislative panel pursues bills to regulate Wyoming library books with sexual material: Lawmakers are taking up library books as conservative activists around the state pore over material in young adult and teen library sections for sexual content.

For reasons I won't go into, I've seen some of the book that is featured in this article, and there's no way it should be in the children's section of a library.

May 22, 2025

Committee Adopts Bill To Make Wyoming Senate Confirm Supreme Court Justices

This is inaccurate. Rather they voted to have the LSO draft such a bill.

May 23, 2025

As scrutiny of judges grows, lawmakers weigh changes to Wyoming’s selection process: In her final official appearance before lawmakers, Wyoming Supreme Court Chief Justice Kate Fox defended the process for choosing the state’s judges. But some lawmakers still want changes.

May 25, 2025

A draft bill would allow for nuclear facilities to have armed guards as a type of private police force.

Private police forces are rare, but not completely unknown. The Wyoming Stock Growers Association at one time was authorized to have them, although that's long ago in the past.  While I haven't kept up on it, so I don't know the current status, railroads at one time had them as well.

Related threads:

The Wyoming Freedom Caucus and the 2025 and 2026 Legislatures. Some things to keep in mind.

The Best Post of the Week of May 18, 2025.

It was quite a week.

We started the week off with a look at the Vietnamese Diaspora

A Sunday Morning look at the Vietnamese Diaspora.

And we delved into local politicians betraying local values.

Looking for Nate Champion.

The occupant of the Oval Office was on display again.

The Madness of King Donald. The 25th Amendment Watch List, Second Edition.

I posed a query to our readers, but received no response.

A query for the retired readers.

We noted a momentous anniversary for Christianity.

Thursday, May 20, 325. The opening of the Council of Nicea.

Republicans were all atwitter about alleged coverups of Joe Biden's decline, while they're covering up Donald Trump's.

The elephant in the room.

Some depressing news in the age of science denialism. 

Pandemic Part 10. A new paradigm?

Monday, May 21, 1945. British government falls apart, French mandates want out, Himmler arrested.

Women were on the blog a lot.

Mid Week At Work

Appearance. Shape and being in shape and women (men will come next).

We considered authenticity.

Occupational Identity and authenticity, a rambling thread.

Tuesday, May 22, 1945. Operation Unthinkable.

The amazing ability of the Palestinians to self sabotage.

The 2026 Wyoming Legislature, Part 1. The way too early edition.

The U.S. took a giant step towards economic disaster.

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 6. “Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.”

Froma Harrop: The tax cut fantasy needs to end

Here's Six Ways Trump’s Budget Will Hurt Rural Americans

Saturday, May 23, 1925. Memorial Day Weekend.

Governor Gordon called  Chuck Gray out on the carpet.

Governor Gordon has enough of Chuck Gray.

Here's Six Ways Trump’s Budget Will Hurt Rural Americans

Here's Six Ways Trump’s Budget Will Hurt Rural Americans: Right now, Congress is working on a giant, fast-track bill that would make historic cuts to basic needs programs to finance another round of tax breaks for the wealthy and...

What Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Is Really Doing (Part 2) | The Ezra K...

 

Froma Harrop: The tax cut fantasy needs to end

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

April 5, 2025

Petroleum:  $61.78/bbl (Wyoming crude become unecomic at $59.00/bbl).

Coal:  Coal 99.40/ton

Coffee (USd/Lbs) 372.60.

Levis at Penny's:  $55.65.

April 7, 2025

Petroleum:  60.80/bbl.

One of Trump's minions cited this, fwiw, as evidence that inflation isn't kicking in and things are fine.  On the contrary, the price of petroleum is dropping on fears of a recession.  A recession reduces oil consumption.

Indeed, because of the bizarre nature of tariffs, trading prices on some things in general may go down, while the price rises for Americans.

April 8, 2025

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday:

Updated 1 day ago

U.S. Oil Prices Fall Below $60 a Barrel

By

WSJ Staff

Oil prices kept falling early Monday; investors fear a trade war will clobber the global economy and sink demand for crude oil.

U.S. crude futures dropped more than 4% to below $59 a barrel, after falling 14% over two sessions to end last week.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, also fell more than 4%.

If prices remain near $60 a barrel for long, American frackers will likely slow drilling and will have to re-evaluate their spending levels for the remainder of the year and in 2026.

It's about $61/bbl this mooring.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

April 9, 2025

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

April 10, 2025

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

West Texas is $59.16/bbl.

April 11, 2025

U.S. reached a new record-high of $6.23 per dozen. 

Oil is opening at 60.10/bbl.

May 2, 2025

Oil and Natural Gas.

WTI Crude 58.57 -0.67 -1.13%

Brent Crude 61.49 -0.64 -1.03%

Murban Crude 61.41 -0.93 -1.49%

Natural Gas 3.502 +0.023 +0.66%

A note, below $59.00, US crude doesn't move.

The inflation rate right now is 2.39% with the tariffs about to hit.

May 6, 2025

WTI Crude • 58.28 +1.15 +2.01%

Brent Crude •  61.39 +1.16 +1.93%

Murban Crude • 62.20 +2.24 +3.74%

Natural Gas • 3.594 +0.044 +1.24%

Coal:  98.50/ton

Coffee:  388.45

Levis:  $55.65.

May 16, 2025

WTI Crude 61.95 +0.33 +0.54%

Brent Crude 64.88 +0.35 +0.54%

Natural Gas 3.345 -0.017 -0.51%

Coal:  99.00/ton

Coffee (USd/Lbs) 373.79

A Disturbing Trifecta

The weekend shows were unsettling, to say the least.

Economic chaos was referenced in all three shows.

On This Week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who sounds like a dimwit in spite of a fairly impressive set of credentials, indicated that the tariff exception for electronics is only temporary until the government comes out with targeted tariffs on them of some sort.

On Meet The Press, investor and author Ray Dalio pretty much predicated a depression, and perhaps a global war of some sort.

On Face the Nation Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, clinically said the economy is going in the toilet.

Also on Face the Nation, recently resigned Dr. Peter Marks, the creator of Operation Warp Speed, went after Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on his measles response with both barrels, and reloaded four or five times.  He also related Kennedy's promise to figure out the cause of autism by fall as absurd.

Nifty.

Beyond beef lips Global trade uncertainty weighs heavy over U.S. agriculture, including a “hopeful” beef sector.

 Beyond beef lips

Global trade uncertainty weighs heavy over U.S. agriculture, including a “hopeful” beef sector.

 

Unilateral free trade

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

The reciprocal tariff formula.

Sigh.

April 4, 2025.

What the administration actually did is took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.  Think it's just me?  Here's what the BBC had to say about it:

But if you unpick the formula above it boils down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

Which is a totally wacked way to do this.

This actually has nothing to do with tariff rates imposed by other countries, but trade deficits.  

It's an autarky baloney sandwich.

By the way, on the great businessman, the seven largest Dow Jones drops in American history:

1. Trump, 3/16/20  -2,997.10

2. Trump, 3/12/20  -2,352.60

3. Trump, 3/9/20  -2,013.76

4. Trump, 6/11/20  -1,861.82

5. Trump, 4/3/25  -1,679.39

6. Trump, 3/11/20  -1,464.94

7. Trump, 03/18/20  -1,338.46

What all of this is supposed to do is to reverse, and in a screaming hurry, the relocation of manufacturing to overseas. For example, 70% of footwear in the US is imported (only really good footwear is made in the U.S.).  Your Levis are probably made in Vietnam.  The problem is, reversing a trend that started in the late 1940s overnight can't be done, if at all, without massive economic disruption.

Added to that, some of what will be hit violates what Adam Smith, who didn't approve of tariffs at all, long noted, which is that if you make great whiskey in Scotland, and they  make great wine in France, you don't fix things by trying to make wine in Scotland.  

April 4, 2025

Never before has a president so recklessly and intentionally driven our economy off a cliff.

Theodore Roosevelt V. 

China has retaliated with 35% reciprocal tariffs.

The Dow opened today and dropped 1,100 points.

Brent Crude is $64.87, heading right into the unproducible price range for Wyoming.

JP Morgan says there's a 60% chance of a recession this year.

Trump was supposed to meet the families of four US soldiers who died in Lithuania in a training exercise as their coffins returned.

He canceled, dined with Saudi golf execs and sponsors for a golf tournament at one of his resorts.

What an asshole.

The current cover of The New Yorker has an illustration of the entire Trump cabinet riding an Atomic Bomb, as in the last scene of Dr. Strangelove, as they take selfies of themselves.

So, for Wyomingites, including those who moved in and backed the Freedom Caucus (and the natives who naively did), retirement accounts are being flushed down the toilet and there won't even be jobs at Walmart, and oil is tanking so soon rigs will be stacked.  Those on fixed pensions, like those who worked for school districts and the government, will be no better off, as the pension will become worth less every day.

And for more, on how this insanity will play out:

It's tariff time. How will tariffs impact you?

cont:

The view from the organization named after the man who developed the free trade theory:

Tariffs and the European Union

cont:

It should be noted that the US added 228,000 jobs in March.

cont:

"They Played It Wrong, Panicked"

Trump, on truth social, about China kicking the US in the nuts.

In reality, we played it wrong, and soon we're going to be down on the sidewalk getting kicked in the gut.

Did anyone seriously vote for this? 

cont:

The Dow, so far, today: −1,662.02 (4.10%).

So, for two days, it's down nearly 3,000.

Rig counts are down by two this week, down by 30 from this time last year.

cont:

Somebody I know looking to buy a used car found the price jumped $4,000 this week due to an increased demand for used cars.

cont:

Now down 2,000 points.

cont:

Closed 2,200 points down today.

Over 3,800 points down over two days.

That's sure making America Great Again.

cont:

Things actually appear to be changing in the GOP.  Ted Cruz, for one, suddenly got intestinal fortitude:

If we are in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods, that is a TERRIBLE SCENARIO!”

We have seen when one country jacks up tariffs, it can provoke a trade war, where each country accelerates tariffs, and the results would do a couple of things.  It would DESTROY JOBS here at home and do real damage to the economy…. This is going to have a POWERFUL UPWARD IMPACT ON INFLATION.

Cruz wouldn't be saying that if he didn't figure things are about to turn on Trump.

April 5, 2025

The Trump tax bill which extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and which cuts spending passed early this morning.

This is frankly disastrous as it perpetuates an ongoing deficit crisis.

West Texas crude is $62.00/bbl.

Cont:

Stellantis is laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities.  It directly cited the Trump Tariffs.  

Stellantis N.V. is a multinational automotive manufacturing company that manufactures and sells Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram Trucks, and Vauxhall, reflecting the international nature of the automobile industry.

April 6, 2025

Trump's Commerce Secretary said the quiet part out loud yesterday.  The hope is that if tariffs cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US, they'll return to AI robotic factories.

So the idea is to take jobs from Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc., and give them to robots. . . not living Americans.  There's a real element of evil in that.

April 7, 2025

Stock markets are plunging around the globe.  The Dow Jones opened 1,000 points lower.

On the weekend shows, the talking points were that Trump is going to negotiate, which last week he indicated he wouldn't, and that the tariffs cause a "one time price adjustment".

cont:

Looks like the Dow will close over 500 down.

April 8, 2025.

From the Tribune:

Trade wars threaten craft brewers

It has to deal with steel and aluminum prices.

cont:

Even Elon Must is criticizing the tariffs, calling Peter Navarro "dumber than a sack of bricks".

Later tonight, a 104% tariff will be imposed on China.

cont:

Canadian produced Dodge, Quebec advertisement.  Je me souviens.

And now Canada is imposing a 25% automobile tax on the US starting at midnight.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

And the Dow closed down 300 points.

cont:

Microsoft has canceled plans to build three new data centers worth in Ohio.

April 9, 2025

And good morning Wyoming. . . 

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

cont:

Somebody obviously got to Trump and gave him the dope slap.  San Francisco Chronicle:

Alert: Stocks surge after President Trump announces a 90-day pause on tariffs except for China, sending the Dow up 1,800 points

That's good news, but clearly Trump is not a stable genius.

cont:

The 10% tariff, which is still inflationary, remains.  

Trump's attributing this to 75 nations contacting the US on this, which is pretty much a "dog ate my lunch" excuse.  Somebody got to Trump and took away his McKinley cartoon bio and woke him up a bit.

The degree to which the US has lost credibility for being governed by an obviously dim character, of course, can't be immediately repaired. 

cont:

So, US 10 & 30 year bonds were being dumped by overseas holders.  That had to be stopped.

So the tariffs were stopped, or at least that's highly likely what occurred.

Stupid.   We shouldn't have been in that position.

Related Threads

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Donald Trump Really Is a Lot Dumber Than We Thought. Like, a Lot!

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The dictatorial control edition

Labels: Derek Guy, Economics, Government, Jonah Goldberg, Petroleum, Stock Market, Taxes, technology, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Unions, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

Trade Twits.

They’re coming now and saying we want to talk, we’ll lower our tariffs to zero. That’s not the problem. Vietnam is a great example, Laura. They sell us $15 for every one we sell them. Zero tariffs would get us no reduction in the $123 billion deficit we have.

Peter Navarro.

Elon Musk regarding Peter Navarro:

“truly a moron,”

I don't know much, or anything, about Navarro, but his statement set out above is pretty moronic.  

For every dollar we send to Vietnam, we get something back.  That doesn't obligate them to buy $15.00 worth of stuff from us.  

Nothing in a market works that way.

When I go to Albertsons and buy $100.00 worth of groceries I don't go back out  to my truck with $100.00 worth of good they buy from me.

That'd be stupid.

This is what's wrong with the Trump Administration.  It appears to be a confederacy of extremist and dunces.

 

Opinion | Donald Trump has pushed America into a golden age of stupid. Now’s Canada’s chance to be smart

 

American Whiskey Braces for Another Trump Trade War

Blog Mirror: The Guinness World Record of Self-Sabotage

 The Guinness World Record of Self-Sabotage

Donald Trump Really Is a Lot Dumber Than We Thought. Like, a Lot!

 Donald Trump Really Is a Lot Dumber Than We Thought. Like, a Lot!

What Trump’s Tariffs Will Actually Do | The Ezra Klein Show

Something worth looking at, as Trump's tariffs could be terminated by simply terminating the supposed existence of emergencies, or by terminating the power of the Oval Office to declare bogus emergencies.  There are currently 89 existing Federal Emergencies, which his complete and utter nonsense.

Are Tariffs an Emergency Power?

It's worth recalling that Rome went from being a republic, to a dictatorship via this very method.