Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 10, The Autarky Edition.

Autarky is the economic concept of producing everything a nation consumes within its own borders.  It's been tried numerous times, and inevitably leads at best to high prices and deprivation. At worst, it results in warfare.

Autarky was the official economic model of the Nazi Party after German economist Hjalmar Schacht joined the party in 1926 and after Gregor Strasser was ousted from party influence.* Nazi Germany provides a perfect example of how it doesn't work.  Germany was a major industrial power leading up to, during and after World War Two (it still is), but it could never produce enough of anything for its own economy, even in peacetime.  Moreover, it didn't have the raw materials to supply all it did produce.  It imported 20% of its food supply in the early 1930s, and by the late 1930s the Nazis had only managed to boost that to 83%.

The solution was simple.

What the Germans did have, they could just seize from neighboring countries through war, and then either kill off the native population or subjugate it.  That's exactly what it attempted to do.  It pursued that murderously in Poland and the Soviet Union, and through vassal states in the form of France, Romania and Spain.  Where that proved to be impossible. . . for the time being, it used bullying and threats, such as in regard to Sweden.

Even at that, it was never able to do it.

That seems to be to some extent what Donald Trump is advocating right now.

If we were playing hardball, all we'd do is say we're going to do no trading with Canada. If we did no trading with Canada would save $90 billion.

We could do tremendous good for ourselves by just not trading with countries..  We lose with Mexico $195 billion a year. They have nothing that we have to have, I mean. Hot tamales, tomatoes, a couple of things

Trump seems to believe that by closing the economic border with Canada and Mexico, and everyone else, unless they essentially become vassal states, the US can simply go it alone and not be harmed.  Where it's obvious that won't work, we'll force acquisition, as we have now done in Venezuela and keep threatening to do with Greenland.  

This is immoral, and stupid.

You'd think that a guy who went to Wharton would have a basic grasp of economics.  Open economic borders, truly open economic borders, make countries rich, not poor.  That doesn't mean that there's never a place for tariffs, including for protectionism, but it's generally a bad idea.  

What makes for more sense is for the United States, Mexico, and Canada, to have a seamless economy with no tariffs at all.  The US and Canada had a nearly duty free relationship prior to Trump, save for the infamous very high ones on dairy, poultry, and egg products.  Those latter tariffs were absurd, but the US also has absurd tariffs in the agricultural sector.  The US relationship with Mexico is, right now, duty free.

An absolute lack of tariffs is how it should be between the three major North American economies.  Only an an economic ignoramus would disrupt that.

And only an immoral person would advocate taking the oil of another nation that is providing it under the gun.  The US has been an oil addict for a century, but was showing signs of getting off the stuff.  Trump, with his "it's always the 1950s" mindset can't seem to get out of that.

Trump should really know better.  Wharton has a reputation as one of the best, maybe the best, business school in the country.  He owes us an explanation, which he seems to be incapable of articulating, for his idiotic economic views. Wharton, and I'm serious about this, does as well.  I know one Wharton graduate personally, and he is brilliant. But the example of Donald Trump is to weird to explain. For that matter, the example of Wyoming's Chuck Gray, who is an absolute Trump sycophant, is as well.

We need a combination of supreme moral sensitivity and economic knowledge. Economically ignorant moralism is as objectionable as morally callous economism. Ethics and economics are two equally difficult subjects, and while the former needs discerning and expert reason, the latter cannot do without humane values.

Wilhelm Röpke, A Humane Economy: The Social Framework of the Free Market

September 8, 2026

Retaliatory Canadian tariffs took place today with duties ranging from 15% to 50% across hundreds of U.S. products worth a total CA$27.6 billion, including dairy, agricultural equipment, paper, household appliances and electronics.

This will hurt Canadian consumer through increased cost to them, and American producers due to decreased demand.

Cont:

September 8, 2026

And as this wasn't enough, 5he United States is banning the import of some dairy products motorcycles and  most alcoholic beverages from Canada.

This is rank stupidity.  Peter Navarro ought to be sent to kindergarten and Wharton declared a clown college.

So, if you can, go out and buy a Can Am motorcycle and some Crown Royal.

Well, probably not.  I'm too old to start riding a motorcycle (I'd much prefer a mule) and I can't stand Crown Royal.  But if I liked Canadian whiskey, I'd go buy some for spite.

I may just for spite.

September 10, 2026

Customers Shocked As ‘Cybersecurity Incident’ Shuts Down Hilltop Bank Across Wyoming

Cont:

U.S. wholesale inflation hits 5.4% annually in August 2026.

More good news from the Trump administration.

September 11, 2026

Lame duck defeated state senator Bob Ide used the Hilltop disaster to say something monumentally stupid.

Hilltop Bank Shutdown Just Confirms Why Wyoming Needs Gold, Lawmaker Says

Bob, that's stupid.

September 15, 2026

Oil everywhere is up over $100/bbl and set to rise.

Prices at the pump are at record highs.

This appears to be set to get extremely bad.

September 16, 2026

The Fed raised interest rates, contrary to the wish of King Donald.

Footnotes

*Strasser was permanently ousted from influence in the Night of the Long Knives.

Schacht is interesting in that he was never a Nazi himself and was involved in prewar anti Nazi plots.  He served in the German government nonetheless.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2026. The Times more or less locally, Part 9, 25th Amendment Watch, 23d Edition. The Canadian Harvard and Oxford doctor in economics vs. the Wharton playboy. The Trade War with Canada edition.

Labels: 2026 Election, Agriculture, Cowards, Cynthia Lummis, Food, Harriet Hageman, Health, James Byrd, John Barrasso, Reid Rasner, restaurants and bars, The Second Trump Administration, Wyoming, Wyoming (Casper), Wyoming (Evanston) Canada, Education, Great Lakes, Industry, International trade, Lake Ontario, Mining, Populism, The Second Trump Administration, United States and Israel v. Iran,2020s, 2026, 25th Amendment Watch List, Canada, Distributism, Donald Trump, Economics, Mark Carney, Solidarity, Subsidiarity, The Madness of King Donald, Trump Trade Wars, United States, Wyoming, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

Additional links; Thursday, November 20, 1975. Death of Franco.

Labels: 1930s, 1940s, 1970s, 1975, Central Intelligence Agency, Congo, Dachau, Fidel Castro, Francisco Franco, German SS, National Conservatism, Ngô Đình Diệm, Spain, Spanish Civil War, The Holocaust, World War Two

Saturday, June 20, 1925. La battaglia del grano.

Benito Mussolini launched "The Battle for Grain" ("La battaglia del grano"), aimed at increasing Italy's wheat production to the point of becoming completely self-sufficient.

FWIW, today Italy uses a lot of Ukrainian wheat.

Audie Murphy was born into a sharecropping family in Hunt County, Texas.  He'd grow up under difficult conditions, learning to hunt in order to help feed his large family, and leaving school to pick cotton in fifth grade.

Last edition:

Thursday, June 18, 1925. Death of Robert La Follette.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, Death, German Weimar Republic, Germany, It was because of World War One, law, Monarchy, Personalities, Socialism, Wisconsin

The Agrarian's Lament: Distributism in a time of economic insanity.

The Agrarian's Lament: Distributism in a time of economic insanity.: 

Distributism in a time of economic insanity.

The heavy duty, or at least heavy, premium American automobile of the golden age of American manufacturing which Trump seems to dream can be restored through tariffs.

In reality, capitalism is based on the idol of money. The lure of gain gradually destroys all social bonds. Capitalism devours itself. Little by little, the market destroys the value of work. Man becomes a piece of merchandise. He is no longer his own. The result is a new form of slavery, a system in which a large part of the population is dependent on a little caste. 

Robert Cardinal Sarah.

I don't use the term "insanity" here lightly.  Donald Trump is, I am convinced, rather dumb, obviously economically ignorant, and suffering from dementia.  That nearly half the country could vote for him is simply beyond me, but they did, and the Republican Party, which was once the party of business has fallen right into line.

I suspect Americans voted for him as they have a poor grasp of economics themselves and see it only through what they've experienced in their own live and that of their immediate predecessors.  Americans, came to view the economy sort of like Billy Joel expressed it in Allentown:

Well, we’re living here in Allentown

And they’re closing all the factories down

Out in Bethlehem they’re killing time

Filling out forms

Standing in line

Well, our fathers fought the second World War

Spent their weekends on the Jersey shore

Met our mothers in the USO

Asked them to dance

Danced with them slow

And we’re living here in Allentown

But the restlessness was handed down

And it’s getting very hard to stay

Well we’re waiting here in Allentown

For the Pennsylvania we never found

For the promises our teachers gave

If we worked hard

If we behaved

So the graduations hang on the wall

But they never really helped us at all

No they never taught us what was real

Iron and coke

Chromium Steel

And we’re waiting here in Allentown

But they’ve taken all the coal from the ground

And the union people crawled away

Every child had a pretty good shot

To get at least as far as their old man got

But something happened on the way to that place

They threw an American flag in our face

Well, I’m living here in Allentown

And it’s hard to keep a good man down

But I won’t be getting up today

 

And it’s getting very hard to stay

And we’re living here in Allentown

Problem is, a sense of economic nostalgia evolving into economic rage doesn't grasp economics at all.

1968 Oldsmobile 442.

The US didn't become an economic and manufacturing giant because of something really special in the American system or some amazing native genius.  It was the simple forces of economics that apply to corporate capitalism, combined with the Second World War, that caused it.

Largescale industry can really only be developed through capitalism or socialism.  In Europe, it was capitalism that introduced it in the form of the Industrial Revolution.  The US as a manufacturing titan came about as the Industrial Revolution came to the US late, not because we were better at it.  The arrival of industrialism in the United Kingdom and a united Germany reflected the eras in which it occurred, and it occurred there first.  Capitalism, in the end, just like socialism, seeks to serve itself, and in the case of capitalism it does it by viewing human beings as consumers, as opposed to the socialist workers, and trying to get them to consume as much as possible.  It does that by seeking to make products faster and cheaper, amongst other strategies.  Seeking efficiency products not only relentlessly advance, but manufacturing methods do as well.  But manufacturing method require massive investment of capital.  Once machines are in place, the economic incentive is to use them as long as they can be, given the investment.  This means that new start ups always have the advantage in equipment, as they are starting with newer stuff.

Added to that, industrial Europe was destroyed during World War Two to a large extent.  The Allied air forces bombed German industry into rubble.  What was left after the war was taken back to the Soviet Union if was east of the Elbe.  The Soviets themselves had suffered massive economic dislocation in of their factories, which were forcibly created in the Communist system.  Japan's industry, which was real, but not nearly as advanced as the other major combatants, had been destroyed by the United States Army Air Force.  The US, however, remained untouched and with a massive consumer demand built up due to the war and the Great Depression, US industry came roaring back and dominated the globe. . . right up until other countries could rebuilt, which very much started to show itself by the late 1960s.

One of the things nearly destroyed during the Second World War was Distributism.  Distributism really came up as a line of thought as a "third way" between Communism and Capitalism during the 1920s and the Great Depression   The tensions that came out of World War One saw the Socialist far left dramatically rise in power and take over the government of Russia, and briefly Hungary.  They vied for control of Germany, and effectively did take over Poland in a modified form.  Wars and struggles broke out in numerous places as Socialism sought to effect global change.  In opposition to it rose not only fascism, but extreme capitalism.  Distributists sought to effect a more sane and humane path.  But when the war came they, and their intellectual fellow travelers the agrarians, put aside their efforts to support the war effort, which in the West meant unleashing capitalism in aid of the war effort.  When the war ended, the economic crisis that it had brought about in Europe and the Cold War caused it to carry on, and very successfully, with Distributism being all but forgotten.

Capitalism, however, if not heavily regulated, results in the same end result as Socialism, single entity control of a machine that serves itself.  In Socialism the machine claims to serve the workers, but claims to identify itself as the workers.  In Capitalism the machine serves itself while claiming to serve "consumers".  Neither system really cares about people at all.

American capitalism, particularly after Ronald Reagan, favored unyielding corporate growth, with one corporate machine eating another.  As foreign economies rebuilt after the war, or started up after the war, corporations naturally moved manufacturing overseas, and the American government did not stop to do anything about it, believing fully in capitalism.  To a certain extent, it favored manufacturing moving overseas as it conceived as many manufacturing jobs as less than ideal, and with some reason to look upon them that way, but just as the nation had a "cheap food" policy that hurt family farmers, it had a "cheap goods" policy that hurt the domestic manufacturing sector.

It can well be argued, and it has been, that something should have been done to arrest the relocation of American manufacturing.  But in reality, that day was long ago.  It was clear in the 1970s what was occuring, but the nation, lead by a much more sober and serious group of politicians, did not elect to intervene.  Now, of course, we have Donald Trump, who doesn't seem to grasp even basic economics and who has made his money, it might be noted, in a highly anti distributist industry.

It's nearly impossible to define what Trump's economic vision is, as he probably doesn't have one.  It seems to be ruled by nostalgia and a complete failure to grasp basic economic principals.  Trump seems to look back on the econmy of his youth as a natural one, and believe that if tariffs are imposed all the old industries will come home.  A very wealthy man, he doesn't seem to care what that does in terms of imposing his tariffs all at once, and if it creates a devastating trade war, so be it.

What Trump has no interest in, however, is disrupting capitalism.  He's okay with whipping corporate entities into relocating into the US, or devastating the economy with the thesis he can make it happen, in what amounts to a type of autarky, but the basic evils of capitalism are of no interest to him.

Some closer to Trump envision something more sinister, it seems, a jump starting of an AI driving manufacturing economy.  The concept is that tariffs will not only pressure industry to relocate here, but when it does, the next stage in the relentless Industrial Revolution evolutionary cycle will occur.  Basically, baseball caps now made in Vietnam (none of them seem to be made here) will be made by robots in the US.  Human laborers in Indochina, who depend on their jobs to feed their families, will be made unemployed while factories owning robots here in the US will profit.

It's immoral.

But what of Distributism?

Some of this probably should make any distributist rethink some basic propositions, as frankly Distributism, like Trump's tariff policy, would have the impact of making some things more expensive.  Maybe many things.  But the economic impact of it would be distinctly different.

Distributism policies, as long noted here, would take the corporations out of retail and agriculture.  In agriculture, for the most part, that would not actually have a great impact on prices, save in certain instances (poultry for sure, perhaps pork).  But it would also have a levelling effect.  Virtually nobody would get fantastically wealthy in these industries, but many rank and file workers would get back up into the real middle class.  Therefore the economic impact would be levelling, more than anything else.

Manufacturing, as we've noted here before, is a much tougher nut to crack.  We've  had some suggestions in the past, but frankly the lesson of the Trump tariffs is that they may frankly be unrealistic.  We'd favor partial employee ownership of larger manufacturing entities.  We could still argue for that, but it's tough for industries like the clothing manufacturing industry, whose workers are mostly overseas.  I suppose it could still be argued for, however.  A person here, however, can't be nativist.  Economically, that is, it can't be argued that ownership in the corporation by Nguyen is any less important than Johnson, all things being equal.

It'd be pretty hard to effect, however, in countries whose economies are state run.  Again, perhaps something could have been done about that, but it would have had to start in 1975, rather than 2025.  Trump's policies, which don't fit this mold, are coming all at once, and fifty years too late. That might suggest, of course, that something could be done, but it would have to be done gradually.

If nothing else, however, Trump and his spastic policies might serve to give Distributism a little voice.  Corporate Capitalism resulted in the situation Trump seeks to address.  There's no reason to believe Corporate Capitalism is going to get us out of it.  Distributists have been warning about capitalisms long term impacts for years. Socialism has demonstrated what its were, and that's what killed it.

Perhaps the Distributist Lament can get a little more heard.

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

The reciprocal tariff formula.

Sigh.

April 4, 2025.

What the administration actually did is took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.  Think it's just me?  Here's what the BBC had to say about it:

But if you unpick the formula above it boils down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

Which is a totally wacked way to do this.

This actually has nothing to do with tariff rates imposed by other countries, but trade deficits.  

It's an autarky baloney sandwich.

By the way, on the great businessman, the seven largest Dow Jones drops in American history:

1. Trump, 3/16/20  -2,997.10

2. Trump, 3/12/20  -2,352.60

3. Trump, 3/9/20  -2,013.76

4. Trump, 6/11/20  -1,861.82

5. Trump, 4/3/25  -1,679.39

6. Trump, 3/11/20  -1,464.94

7. Trump, 03/18/20  -1,338.46

What all of this is supposed to do is to reverse, and in a screaming hurry, the relocation of manufacturing to overseas. For example, 70% of footwear in the US is imported (only really good footwear is made in the U.S.).  Your Levis are probably made in Vietnam.  The problem is, reversing a trend that started in the late 1940s overnight can't be done, if at all, without massive economic disruption.

Added to that, some of what will be hit violates what Adam Smith, who didn't approve of tariffs at all, long noted, which is that if you make great whiskey in Scotland, and they  make great wine in France, you don't fix things by trying to make wine in Scotland.  

April 4, 2025

Never before has a president so recklessly and intentionally driven our economy off a cliff.

Theodore Roosevelt V. 

China has retaliated with 35% reciprocal tariffs.

The Dow opened today and dropped 1,100 points.

Brent Crude is $64.87, heading right into the unproducible price range for Wyoming.

JP Morgan says there's a 60% chance of a recession this year.

Trump was supposed to meet the families of four US soldiers who died in Lithuania in a training exercise as their coffins returned.

He canceled, dined with Saudi golf execs and sponsors for a golf tournament at one of his resorts.

What an asshole.

The current cover of The New Yorker has an illustration of the entire Trump cabinet riding an Atomic Bomb, as in the last scene of Dr. Strangelove, as they take selfies of themselves.

So, for Wyomingites, including those who moved in and backed the Freedom Caucus (and the natives who naively did), retirement accounts are being flushed down the toilet and there won't even be jobs at Walmart, and oil is tanking so soon rigs will be stacked.  Those on fixed pensions, like those who worked for school districts and the government, will be no better off, as the pension will become worth less every day.

And for more, on how this insanity will play out:

It's tariff time. How will tariffs impact you?

cont:

The view from the organization named after the man who developed the free trade theory:

Tariffs and the European Union

cont:

It should be noted that the US added 228,000 jobs in March.

cont:

"They Played It Wrong, Panicked"

Trump, on truth social, about China kicking the US in the nuts.

In reality, we played it wrong, and soon we're going to be down on the sidewalk getting kicked in the gut.

Did anyone seriously vote for this? 

cont:

The Dow, so far, today: −1,662.02 (4.10%).

So, for two days, it's down nearly 3,000.

Rig counts are down by two this week, down by 30 from this time last year.

cont:

Somebody I know looking to buy a used car found the price jumped $4,000 this week due to an increased demand for used cars.

cont:

Now down 2,000 points.

cont:

Closed 2,200 points down today.

Over 3,800 points down over two days.

That's sure making America Great Again.

cont:

Things actually appear to be changing in the GOP.  Ted Cruz, for one, suddenly got intestinal fortitude:

If we are in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now, with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods, that is a TERRIBLE SCENARIO!”

We have seen when one country jacks up tariffs, it can provoke a trade war, where each country accelerates tariffs, and the results would do a couple of things.  It would DESTROY JOBS here at home and do real damage to the economy…. This is going to have a POWERFUL UPWARD IMPACT ON INFLATION.

Cruz wouldn't be saying that if he didn't figure things are about to turn on Trump.

April 5, 2025

The Trump tax bill which extends tax cuts from Trump's first term and which cuts spending passed early this morning.

This is frankly disastrous as it perpetuates an ongoing deficit crisis.

West Texas crude is $62.00/bbl.

Cont:

Stellantis is laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities.  It directly cited the Trump Tariffs.  

Stellantis N.V. is a multinational automotive manufacturing company that manufactures and sells Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram Trucks, and Vauxhall, reflecting the international nature of the automobile industry.

April 6, 2025

Trump's Commerce Secretary said the quiet part out loud yesterday.  The hope is that if tariffs cause manufacturing jobs to return to the US, they'll return to AI robotic factories.

So the idea is to take jobs from Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc., and give them to robots. . . not living Americans.  There's a real element of evil in that.

April 7, 2025

Stock markets are plunging around the globe.  The Dow Jones opened 1,000 points lower.

On the weekend shows, the talking points were that Trump is going to negotiate, which last week he indicated he wouldn't, and that the tariffs cause a "one time price adjustment".

cont:

Looks like the Dow will close over 500 down.

April 8, 2025.

From the Tribune:

Trade wars threaten craft brewers

It has to deal with steel and aluminum prices.

cont:

Even Elon Must is criticizing the tariffs, calling Peter Navarro "dumber than a sack of bricks".

Later tonight, a 104% tariff will be imposed on China.

cont:

Canadian produced Dodge, Quebec advertisement.  Je me souviens.

And now Canada is imposing a 25% automobile tax on the US starting at midnight.

cont: 

$58.10. Below marketability in Wyoming.

And the Dow closed down 300 points.

cont:

Microsoft has canceled plans to build three new data centers worth in Ohio.

April 9, 2025

And good morning Wyoming. . . 

Oil opening this morning:

56.03

cont:

Somebody obviously got to Trump and gave him the dope slap.  San Francisco Chronicle:

Alert: Stocks surge after President Trump announces a 90-day pause on tariffs except for China, sending the Dow up 1,800 points

That's good news, but clearly Trump is not a stable genius.

cont:

The 10% tariff, which is still inflationary, remains.  

Trump's attributing this to 75 nations contacting the US on this, which is pretty much a "dog ate my lunch" excuse.  Somebody got to Trump and took away his McKinley cartoon bio and woke him up a bit.

The degree to which the US has lost credibility for being governed by an obviously dim character, of course, can't be immediately repaired. 

cont:

So, US 10 & 30 year bonds were being dumped by overseas holders.  That had to be stopped.

So the tariffs were stopped, or at least that's highly likely what occurred.

Stupid.   We shouldn't have been in that position.

Related Threads

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Donald Trump Really Is a Lot Dumber Than We Thought. Like, a Lot!

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 3. The dictatorial control edition

Labels: Derek Guy, Economics, Government, Jonah Goldberg, Petroleum, Stock Market, Taxes, technology, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Unions, Wyoming's boom and bust economy

Autarky and the road to poverty.

We Need Policies That Will Give Us A Self-Sufficient Economy

J. D. Vance as a Senate candidate.

The characteristic signature of poverty is a return to self-sufficiency.

Matt Ridley.

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 2. The Stupidist Trade War In History Edition.

 This will truly be a disaster:

The Dumbest Trade War in History

Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.

At least its one thing that will seemingly be impossible for even the most ardent Trumpist to ignore.

 

And those people owe us an explanation, or the owe us an admission of neglect, regarding their support of Donald Trump.

We've discussed Trump here before.  Is he stupid?  Is he addled?  Is he a active Russian asset taking orders?  All three are possible and at this point the last one is starting to look rather hard do ignore.  What better to take out an enemy than to insert, at the country's head your stooge.

Active Russian agent or not, Trump has done more to wreck the country than any public figure since Jefferson Davis.

And it's going to get much, much worse.

As the trade war starts off, Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs.  Economic genius Gov. Abbot of Texas gloated that Canada can't get by without U.S. Cotton, which is the exact same argument the South made during the Civil War when it went into treason. Turns out they grow cotton all over the globe and, moreover, the type of cotton grown in Texas goes into high end shirts, not cheap t-shirts and skivvies, and the like.

On the plus side, the price of American cotton may start to go down due to this stupidity.

Trump threatened to raise the tariffs even more.

Individual Canadians are boycotting the US in every way possible, and they'll never forgive the US for this.  Nor should they.  A country that would elect such an obviously stupid man has an electorate that can't easily be forgiven.  On a higher level, there are serious discussion of cutting off hydroelectric power to the US Northeast, which would be devastating to the region.

Trump, who lies like a rug, says that this is over drugs and illegal immigration.  Next to no illegal drugs come in through Canada, although Canada is a victim of illegal drugs coming into it, as well as illegal firearms.

As for Mexico, it appears Mexico has had enough of Trump and now that between Mexico and Canada the US is in a shit sandwich, it's not backing down either.

Republicans in Congress have become completely spineless and are doing nothing.  Locally, they keep smiling and urging Trump on.

Trump is now also threatening to impose tariffs on the EU, which again makes a person have to wonder, at least a little bit, if Putin is calling in some chits.

It may also be the case that Trump dimwittedly is falling for autarky, the economic theory which tried to have everything produced within the borders of a nation.  Autarky was the economic theory of Nazi Germany, we'd note, which in part lead to it having to conquer or dominate its neighbors. . . .sound familiar?

Autarky is a universally discredited economic theory.  It's never worked, and its not going to work here, if that's the goal.

February 9, 2025

Waffle Hut is imposing a .50 per egg surcharge.

When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One

Donald Trump. 

February 10, 2025

The US has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports in a desperate effort to bring back the economy of 1957.

It won't work.

Prices will rise.

February 14, 2025

And now, reciprocal tariffs.

Inflation has risen to 3%

A population level boycott of American goods is on in Canada.  Part of that is the cancellation of US vacations, which is already having an impact in the tourist industry.

The government announced a massive purchase of Tesla trucks.  Not like that's a conflict or anything.

February 19, 2025

Trump acknowledged in a interview with Fox yesterday (he sure gives a lot of interviews, and plays a lot of golf) that "inflation is back".  In fact, in his typical meandering style, he repeated it several times, and then noted "I had nothing to do with it".

Funny, if it was a month into the Biden Administration the Trumpies would be screaming that it was Biden's fault.

Inflation is going to get worse.  And whatever its causing it now (bird flu helped, but treating the economy like a toy for tariffs didn't help), it's going to be on Trump's watch.

His loyalist won't see it that way.

February 20, 2025

Wyoming has only two hospitals rated at the five star level according to an article in the Trib, one in Cheyenne and one in Jackson.

The information comes from Medicare.gov, so my anticipation it will be fixed by the Trump administration eliminating the ability to access things like this when it gets around to it.

Casper's hospital once belonged to Natrona County but was privatized.  It was having troubles prior to that, but since then it seems to have increased.  It's rates a 3.

February 26, 2025

In spite of the fact that it increases the debt. . . 

Some Republicans begin to get clear eyed.

They convinced me in there. I'm a 'no.' If the Republican plan passes...we're going to add $328 billion to the deficit this year. We're going to add $295 billion to the deficit the year after that...why would I vote for that?!?

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, Republican, on the Republican continuing budget resolution.

The dollars thrown around as being saved by Musk are largely fictional, if in fact is rampaging buffoonery doesn't end up costing the government money.  Only taxes are going to pull us out of this debt.

the House approved the Trump budget resolution.

The bill calls for $2 trillion in overall spending cuts over the next decade, a triviality, to help pay for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, thereby being unbalanced to start with.  It increases increases defense and border spending, with the defense spending being paradoxical given Trump's isolationist views.

This extends, it should be noted, the 2017 tax cuts, which helped put us in a budgetary crisis to start with.  The Republicans recently have used the talking point that this is "unsustainable", which it is.

US consumer confidence dropped the greatest amount it has dropped in four years.

February 28, 2025

And the trade war is back on, of course. The tariffs that Trump suspended on our nearest neighbors are back in play.

Why?

Why indeed.

In part, it may be because the GOP budget, complete with the retention of an income tax rate at an absurdly low rate, is going to skyrocket the deficit and Trump sees this as a way of addressing it. Tariffs are a hidden tax on US taxpayers.

It could be a mere distraction for Trump, who likes to distract the public, it seems.

And as for Canada, Trump seems to have genuine bizarre territorial ambition and weirdly believes that beating up on our neighbor will make them love us.

The only sure thing is that this is going to be a disaster.

March 3, 2025

And, here we go.

The Atlanta Fed is projecting that Q1 GDP will be -1.5%.

That's a contraction of the economy.

Last week's projection was +2.3%, four weeks ago it was +3.9%

Now, younger Trumpers, your word of the week is "Stagflation".

A bright side, however.  With all the deportations, you might be able to replace the job you lose with a field hired hand's. . . 

March 4, 2025

Chinese response to tariffs:

For pork it goes to 47% with this additional 10%. 5% higher than all other countries.

15% on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.

10% on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy.

So, American farmers who voted for Trump. . . you're getting what you voted for.

Canada also hit back with tariffs.

The stock market fell for the second day in a row.

Trump doesn't care about any of this stuff.  It won't impact him personally.  Additionally, somebody gave him a Classic Comics edition on tariffs and he really believes they're the cure for American economic ills, which is absurd.

March 6, 2025

And auto industry tariffs were paused after somebody took Donny's Classic Comics on Tariffs away and made him realize he was completely tanking the auto industry, the dumbass.

He's given them 30 days to relocate production inside the US, which won't happen.

The Wharton School of Business must be so proud. . . .

The DOGE pinheads have put the Dick Cheney Federal Office Building in Casper on a list of buildings to be closed. 

The building was constructed in the 1970s and ultimately all of the Federal offices that were jammed into the Federal Courthouse, which wasn't being used as a courthouse, were moved there.  Then the courthouse resumed being used as a courthouse.

Where the workers would go is another question.  I suppose they would just be terminated. 

This is a monumentally stupid move and there's some suspicion that this building was listed just as its named after Dick Cheney, who was an enormous hero in Wyoming up until King Donny and the Dixiecrats came to rule what had once been the Republican Party.  It'll hurt the state.

Both John Barrasso and Harriet Hageman have offices in the building.

Sell real estate, in general, is a bad idea for anyone or anything if it can be avoided.

cont:

Canada didn't bite and is keeping its counter tariffs on.

cont:

Various provincial controlled liquor distribution entities are pulling US alcohol from the shelves.

Alcohol is generally regarded as a saturated market, so even small differences in sales actually make a big difference.  Prohibition demonstrated that once a product is removed, the taste for it disappears and does not revive, moreover.  Prohibition in the US lasted, of course, from 1919 to 1932, but it destroyed rye whiskey market in the US for eighty years, and devastated the quality of American beer.  Canada, already a major producer of beer and whiskey, will simply fill in the gaps locally.  My guess is that Canadian whiskey sales in the US (personally I don't like Canadian whiskey) will increase in protest of King Donny's actions.

March 7, 2025

President Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that comply with the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) is great news for the Canadian, Mexican and U.S. distilled spirits industries. Spirits produced in Canada, Mexico and the United States are all covered under USMCA. The USMCA has helped to ensure the continued growth of the U.S. spirits and hospitality industries, promote job growth and drive economic prosperity across the nation. We are hopeful that constructive dialogues continue between the U.S., Canada and Mexico that permanently brings back zero for zero tariffs for spirits trade between our three countries. We want Toasts Not Tariffs.

Chris Swonger, President and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.

Well, too late.  US alcohol, which amounted to a $1B industry in Canada, is off Canadian shelves and not combing back on.

During Trump's last call with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, Trump became so agitated that he started screaming profanities thus forcing U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to step in and give Canada what they demanded.

This is twice in a week where a cabinet officer suddenly acted independently in front of King Donny.

25th Amendment. . . 

March 12, 2025

US steel and aluminum tariffs have gone into effect and the EU has immediately hit back by announcing tariffs that will go into effect on April 1.  The EU tariffs are targeted and will hit specific American goods, including boats, bourbon and motorcycles. 

Poor old Jack Daniels just can't get a break.

March 14, 2025

The S&P 500 fell into correction territory.

Senator Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader, broke with his party on Thursday and lined up enough Democrats to advance a Republican-written bill to keep the Federal government open after midnight, pretty much proving that the Democrats are worthless in the face of the current crisis.

This will allow the Republicans to destroy the Federal government unimpeded.

March 15, 2025

The stopgap cr passed with the support of Chuck Schumer and nine other Democrats.

March 24, 2025

A coal mine near Kemmerer is laying off 28 workers.

Tesla chargers have been vandalized with swastikas in Rock Springs.

Kemmerer balked at an immigration detention center.

March 27, 2025

Apparently Trump is imposing a 25% tariff on foreign automobiles on April 3.

cont:

Forward bookings from Canada to the U.S. have dropped by more than 70 percent for each month through the end of September.

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 1.