Friday, November 2, 1923. A person of interest.

Actress Margaret Gibson was arrested on charges of running a blackmail and extortion ring.  The charges would later be dropped,   She would keep working in the film industry until 1929.

During her career she performed under the names Patricia Palmer, Patsy Palmer, Margie Gibson, Marguerite Gibson, Ella Margaret Lewis, Ella Margaret Arce, Pat Lewis and perhaps others.  She started running into legal trouble in 1917, when she was arrested for vagrancy with allegations of opium dealing.  She was acquitted, but her career did thereafter decline.

On this day in 1923 she was arrested on federal felony charges. As things developed, George W. Lasher told authorities he had paid Gibson $1155 to avoid prosecution for a reputed violation of the Mann Act. Charges were, however, later dropped.

She married in 1935 to oil executive Elbert Lewis. They lived overseas, and the marriage was successful.  In 1940, at age 45, she returned to the United States without her husband for surgery.  World War Two intervened, and they would not be reunited as her husband was killed when the Japanese bombed Socony-Vacuum's oil facility at Penang, Malaysia on March 15, 1942.

She returned to Hollywood in 1964, and at that time, converted to Catholicism.  Only shortly thereafter, she became gravely ill, called for a priest, and confessed to neighbors the February 1, 1922, murder of Hollywood film director William Desmond Taylor.  The murder of Taylor remains officially unsolved, and while there were a handful of suspects, Gibson was never one of them.  In spite of her deathbed confession and her being distraught at the time, there are still those who doubt she committed the crime.  

Gibson with Taylor in a still from the 1914 film "The Riders of Petersham".

Given her conversion to Catholicism, and the sudden deathbed conversion, my guess is that she was the killer.  Suspicion on this is tied to her earlier efforts at extortion, and a flurry of that which occured following the Fatty Arbuckle episode.

U.S. Navy Lieutenant Harlold J. Brow set a new flight airspeed record of 250 mph, making him the first person to fly faster than 400 kph.  His plane was a Curtis racer.

The three Socialist members of Gustav Stresemann's cabinet resigned in protest over the governments refusal to curtail the dictatorial government in Bavaria.

Oklahoma's Governor Walton wasn't prepared to give up.

Ceremonies were held at Arlington National Cemetery for twenty-three U.S. Navy sailors and Marines from the USS Pittsburgh who died of influenza in 1918 and were returned to the United States from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

And it was a busy day on the Panama Canal, like most days.

Panama Canal - West Lirio slide 11/2/23.

Are there lessons from today's entry?  Almost surely.  Redemption after a long journey to one who ultimately pursued, but also life cut short.

Three economists walk into a bar and. . .

spend the rest of the evening arguing on whether to adjust the thermostat from 68F to 65, or maybe 72.

By Flickr user midnightcomm - https://www.flickr.com/photos/midnightcomm/447335691/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5596839

Not funny?

Neither are missing the point arguments economist out in the Twitterverse have about inflation, or elsewhere on the Internet.

Maybe we should have titled this thread "what causes inflation"?  If you are listening to economists or pundits on the topic, you probably don't actually know.

If you listen to right wing politicians, and economics is pretty political, you'll hear stuff like that put out by Dr. John Barrasso.  It's simple,  Inflation started on inauguration day when Joe Biden put his had on the Big Meter O' Gas Prices and personally shut down American oil production. All that needs to happen to fix it is to have Biden go down to the White House basement, find the Gas Thermostat, and adjust it.

Gas meters behind the White House where the President personally sets the price of natural gas.

That's nonsense.

So is "unleash American oil", or what have you. That's not what's going on.

If you listen to Robert Reich, the left wing economist, inflation is all caused by corporate greed. That's it.  Tax corporation and their heads, and it'll all drop back into price.

The cause of inflation, according to Robert Reich.

Sorry Robert, that's not correct, and I'm guessing in the middle of the night and ponder this, you know it isn't.

If you listen to NPR, and I do, it's all so complicated no mortal is capable of figuring it out.

Well, it ain't that complicated, either.

Apologist Jimmy Akin, who ponders a lot of non-apologetic topics, states that it's all caused by the government.  It isn't, but we'll start there.

Setting the inflation meter.

In normal times, and in a normal land, with a normal economy, there's a lot of truth to that.  In those circumstances, there are a lot of things that operate naturally, as long as the government doesn't mess with them.  You'll have a natural sized population, which may be stable, may be declining, or may be increasing somewhat, but it'll be in a sort of rough status in that fashion. And you have their "consumer demands". The cost of those demand is determined by supply.

The cost of government, in this scenario, is determined by its demands, which is paid for by taxes.

Pretty simple.

So how can that get off kilter?

In modern history, it got off kilter during the Great Depression.

With the Great Depression, the US turned to John Maynard Keynes.  Keynes believed that business cycles could be regulated through government spending.  If things were in the dumps, increased government spending could address it, but that spending had to be paid off in good times.

Yeah, right.

In reality, during the Great Depression, government learned how to deficit spend and liked it.  World War Two made it worse.  Ever since then, we've never really been able to reign that in, as Government likes to spend borrowed money it can't pay back.

The reason for that is simple.  People like getting money, but they don't like having to work or pay for it.  If you go from wherever you are today, in the US, and go anywhere, you're going to collide with things the Federal government bought with borrowed money.  You won't be able to avoid it.

Generally, the Federal government likes to keep the inflation rate caused by spending money it doesn't have right down around 3%.  I frankly feel this is immoral as inflation steals from people's wallets, but that's what they try to do.  It's decreasing the amount they have to pay back on their loans and gives them the extra cash to spread around without anyone really noticing inflation too much.

People should, and should, be up in arms about it, but they basically don't notice.

So, in the Jimmy Akin sense, yes, government causes inflation.

But, it's not that simple.

In the US, the government has also messed with the natural value of labor by inflating the size of hte working population through immigration. There's certainly outsized legal immigration, but there's also illegal immigration, which nobody did much about until fairly recently.  Immigrants are actually deflationary, as they work for less than native born Americans would in the same industries.  By the same token, however, if immigration is slowed, it causes wages to rise, as the labor pool shrinks.  If illegal immigration is slowed, it causes the artificially depressed wages to rise.  That's inflation, but it's also an example of wages seeking their natural level, effectively reaching the level they should have been.

This is important to keep in mind, as part of the way that the government keeps inflation down, in normal times, in spite of high borrowing, is by keeping wages down, through immigration.  Never raising the minimum wage plays into this, but the immigrant population, quite a bit of which is "off the books", plays into this.

That also serves to keep everyone in a household at work, which is a different topic we will address some other time.

So there you have normal times.

But what about abnormal times?

And we are in those.

It turns out that the Four Horsement of the Apocolpyse have a lot to do with causing inflation.

And when wars ride in, at least famine rides in with him.

In, other words, spite of what Jimmy Akin may think, a lot of current inflation has more to do with Vladimir Putin's government than our own.

Vladimir Putin, as we all know, has launched a war against Ukraine to bring it back under Moscow's heel.  Russia is failing badly at it.

A casualty of the war has been oil prices.  Oil is a globally traded commodity, and one whose value widely even in normal times.  Now the price has gone up because of the effort to take Russian hydrocarbons off the market to punish Russia.

Now, if only the price of things mattered in the world we could do what Trump probably would have done, which would have been to turn a blind eye to Ukraine's fate.  But that would have been a very dangerous thing to do.  It's still the thing that some Republicans want to do right now, but they seem to be a minority.

At any rate, this is why calls by people like Dr. John Barrasso to "unleash" American oil are wrong and won't work, which he probably knows.  The American oil industry isn't producing on all the leases it has now, in spite of the high prices.  Market instability is part of that reason.  If people like Marjorie Taylor Greene have their way, Russian oil will be back on the market, the price will drop, and having invested in American oil, which only makes sense if prices are high, would have been the wrong thing to do.

The price of oil is also high due to OPEC+, which operates to falsely set the price.  If the organization were a domestic organization, it'd get sued by the Federal government.  As it's international, it can't be, but it sets production to set the price and when it wants to raise it, it does. It recently did.

Russia is part of OPEC+

If the US really wanted to address this part of this issue, as we're always going to be subject to OPEC, we'd switch as much of the nation over to non petroleum energy as possible.  This gets into naysayers who say it can't be done, but it can be, and it's happening now naturally.  Of course, Wyomingites get up in arms about that too, as they fear that electric generation is going to omit coal, which is another topic. And on that topic, you don't just get to do what you want to do as it's good for you locally.  Most people know that, but they don't like to really believe that something that may be causing harm is doing that.  People elsewhere, however, will be deciding those things, not us.

And Putin's war has disrupted global food supplies as well.  Ukraine is often referred to as a "breadbasket", and it is. . . for much of the Third World.

Food prices, we'd note, are up in much of Africa by epic levels.

This impacts us too, as food has been a global commodity since ancient times.  If it's transportable, it will be traded long distance.

Of course, it's also the case that the US went to a "cheap food" model following the Second World War, which emphasized size and production. That was a mistake.  It would have been better to emphasize the producers and to have sought to keep as many people in agriculture as possible.  A more agrarian type of farm economy would cause prices to climb initially, but it would also help stabilize the market long timer, making some of it more local and all of it more direct.

For that matter, the whole scale up scaling of economic scale on the retail and production end of things achieved that as well. Robert Reich decries "corporate profits" without seeming to ever realize that for much of the economy, even now, corporations aren't necessary.  We don't need Walmarts at all, and for that matter, there's no reason that something like Twitter can't be corporate owned.  If changes like that were made, it would also damper inflation.

Be that as it may, should the Republicans take the House and Senate tomorrow, they're not going to introduce an anti-corporate ownership bill and bring back a more Distributist economy.  No way. And in spite of Harriet Hageman's agricultural roots, she's not going to introduce any bills directed at returning large scale agarianistic agriculture to the economy either.  

And as long as fuel and food prices are subject to the reestablishment of the Russian Empire, we're going to be in an inflationary cycle.

That argues for defeating Putin decisively and right now.  

Finally, there's the COVID effect.

A pandemic that kills 1,070,000 people is going to remove a lot of workers from the economy forever.  That's inflationary.

The necessary halting of imports from China, something Trump did right during the pandemic, was inflationary, however.  Giving credit for where credit is due, that needed to be done, but in the globalized economy, the econmy has never righted itself, just as it didn't after World War One when a highly globaized economy was also disrupted by the war, and then of couse the Spanish Flu followed.

Lots of workers stayed home during the pandemic, many during mandatory quarantines. Government efforts started under Donald Trump, not Joe Biden, to address this by addressing wage cessation amounted to sending people money, a lot of whom never needed it. That was inflationary.

The perceived and mistaken idea that something needed to be done to get people back to work, they would have done that on their own for economic reasons gave rise to infrastructure bills under Trump that expanded under Biden.  That was inflationary.

But here's the added things. Putin's war jump started inflation all over the globe, and as we're in a globalized market, that means one country's fever at least gets another one sick.

For example:

 CPI Austria Austria cpi september 2022 1.599 % 10.531 %

 CPI Belgium Belgium cpi october 2022 2.372 % 12.268 %

 CPI Brazil Brazil cpi september 2022 -0.290 % 7.169 %

 CPI Canada Canada cpi september 2022 0.066 % 6.858 %

 CPI Chile Chile cpi september 2022 0.859 % 13.728 %

 CPI China China cpi september 2022 0.291 % 2.783 %

 CPI Czech Republic Czech Republic cpi september 2022 0.801 % 17.973 %

 CPI Denmark Denmark cpi september 2022 1.305 % 10.019 %

 CPI Estonia Estonia cpi september 2022 0.321 % 23.648 %

 CPI Finland Finland cpi september 2022 0.780 % 8.119 %

 CPI France France cpi september 2022 -0.564 % 5.552 %

 CPI Germany Germany cpi september 2022 1.936 % 9.991 %

 CPI Great Britain Great Britain cpi september 2022 0.411 % 8.808 %

 CPI Greece Greece cpi september 2022 2.937 % 12.024 %

 CPI Hungary Hungary cpi september 2022 4.077 % 20.124 %

 CPI Iceland Iceland cpi october 2022 0.668 % 9.405 %

 CPI India India cpi september 2022 0.845 % 6.488 %

 CPI Indonesia Indonesia cpi october 2022 -0.106 % 5.710 %

 CPI Ireland Ireland cpi september 2022 0.000 % 8.175 %

 CPI Israel Israel cpi september 2022 0.187 % 4.594 %

 CPI Italy Italy cpi september 2022 0.263 % 8.866 %

 CPI Japan Japan cpi april 2022 0.396 % 2.422 %

 CPI Luxembourg Luxembourg cpi september 2022 0.257 % 6.879 %

 CPI Mexico Mexico cpi september 2022 0.620 % 8.700 %

 CPI Norway Norway cpi september 2022 1.372 % 6.894 %

 CPI Poland Poland cpi september 2022 1.586 % 17.254 %

 CPI Portugal Portugal cpi september 2022 1.226 % 9.281 %

 CPI Russia Russia cpi march 2022 7.613 % 16.698 %

 CPI Slovakia Slovakia cpi september 2022 0.908 % 14.170 %

 CPI Slovenia Slovenia cpi september 2022 -0.921 % 10.002 %

 CPI South Africa South Africa cpi september 2022 0.094 % 7.801 %

 CPI South Korea South Korea cpi september 2022 0.285 % 5.583 %

 CPI Spain Spain cpi september 2022 -0.696 % 8.872 %

 CPI Sweden Sweden cpi september 2022 1.429 % 10.838 %

 CPI Switzerland Switzerland cpi september 2022 -0.176 % 3.252 %

 CPI the Netherlands The Netherlands cpi september 2022 2.340 % 14.496 %

 CPI Turkey Turkey cpi october 2022 3.545 % 85.515 %

 CPI United States United States cpi september 2022 0.215 % 8.202 %

 HICP Austria Austria hicp september 2022 2.436 % 10.915 %

 HICP Belgium Belgium hicp september 2022 1.336 % 12.061 %

 HICP Czech Republic Czech Republic hicp september 2022 0.885 % 17.829 %

 HICP Denmark Denmark hicp september 2022 1.473 % 11.101 %

 HICP Estonia Estonia hicp september 2022 0.338 % 24.094 %

 HICP Eurozone Europe hicp september 2022 1.196 % 9.927 %

 HICP Finland Finland hicp september 2022 0.726 % 8.413 %

 HICP France France hicp september 2022 -0.511 % 6.232 %

 HICP Germany Germany hicp september 2022 2.176 % 10.899 %

 HICP Great Britain Great Britain hicp september 2022 0.569 % 10.142 %

 HICP Greece Greece hicp september 2022 2.956 % 12.117 %

 HICP Hungary Hungary hicp september 2022 1.850 % 20.673 %

 HICP Iceland Iceland hicp september 2022 -0.235 % 5.933 %

 HICP Ireland Ireland hicp september 2022 0.000 % 8.604 %

 HICP Italy Italy hicp september 2022 1.582 % 9.366 %

 HICP Luxembourg Luxembourg hicp september 2022 0.510 % 8.832 %

 HICP Poland Poland hicp september 2022 1.522 % 15.698 %

 HICP Portugal Portugal hicp september 2022 1.270 % 9.811 %

 HICP Slovakia Slovakia hicp september 2022 0.937 % 13.579 %

 HICP Slovenia Slovenia hicp september 2022 -0.284 % 10.629 %

 HICP Spain Spain hicp september 2022 -0.246 % 8.974 %

 HICP Sweden Sweden hicp september 2022 1.221 % 10.252 %

 HICP the Netherlands The Netherlands hicp september 2022 2.842 % 17.061 %

 HICP Turkey Turkey hicp september 2022 3.097 % 83.394 %

But also note that global inflation rates are expected to peak this year, and then steeply decline.

At any rate, in a globalized economy in which we depend on stuff with overseas sources to come here, when prices go up there, they go up here.  Put another way, when is the last time you bought a shirt made in the United States?

So, what should the government do, and by that I mean right now, to address inflation?

The most important thing it could do would be to make systemic changes that take the country out, as much as possible, of a system that is subject to foreign commodity and product inflation without falling into the falsity of autarky, which we'd note is, of course, inflationary.

That would entail moving the volatile energy sector over to stable, and frankly North American based, energy production.  Nuclear energy would be the best option for the US for domestic and transportation energy.  If we wanted an infrastructure bill, this should have been it.  It's not too late to do this through various means, however, including tax breaks where appropriate, and by removing subsidization, which occurs in places we're so used to use to we don't recognize them.  The national highway system, for example, is subsidized, which in turn amounts to a trucking industry subsidization.

We could also do this in the food and retail sectors through anti monopoly and frankly highly distributist policies that revested much of the economy at a lower level.  That would be inflationary in the short term, but stabilizing in the long term.

In the immediate short term, we could quit deficit spending on things that we don't need to, which is only almost all, but probably not all, things.  The Federal Government doles out cash like crazy under both Republican and Democratic Administrations.  There are a lot of things that the Federal Government takes care of that it could just say to localities, "you take care of it, it's yours anyway".  Quite frankly in quite a few instances local entities couldn't take care of it, at least not without tax hikes, but then those things would be paid for along the way in most instances, and where they couldn't be, there's likely an existential problem at work such that they shouldn't be.

And contrary to the Republican whining about "thousands of IRS agents" and the Democratic silence on taxes, the upper marginal tax rates ought to be increased.  Billionaires now control a frightening amount of the US economy and ought to be taxed aggressively. That won't reduce them to poverty, but would recapture money that should be recaptured.  And in inflationary cycles, a windfall profits tax should be put in place.

Finally, as grim as it is, the Fed ought to jack up interest rates to double their current amount and put a massive damper on the overheated economy.

How much of this is going to happen? 

Probably none of it.

Headline on the Wall Street Journal.

 

The World Is Likely Sicker Than It Has Been in 100 Years

Omicron has probably made more people ill at the same time than in any period since the flu pandemic, experts say

Tragic, no doubt. But is it historically correct and comparatively of value?

Soldiers sick with the Spanish Flu at Ft. Riley, Kansas during World War One.  Ft. Riley is where the Spanish Flu first demonstrably broke out.

Yesterday, we posted this item:

Lex Anteinternet: 500,000. Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at ...

500,000. Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at Half-Staff Statewide Through February 26 in Memory of Americans lost to COVID-19

 

Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at Half-Staff Statewide Through February 26

in Memory of Americans lost to COVID-19 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. - Governor Mark Gordon, pursuant to President Joe Biden's Proclamation remembering the 500,000 Americans lost to COVID-19, has ordered both the U.S. and State of Wyoming flags be flown at half-staff statewide until sunset February 26.

The Presidential Proclamation follows: 

REMEMBERING THE 500,000 AMERICANS LOST TO COVID-19
- - - - - - -

BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A PROCLAMATION

As of this week during the dark winter of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 500,000 Americans have now died from the virus. That is more Americans who have died in a single year of this pandemic than in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War combined. On this solemn occasion, we reflect on their loss and on their loved ones left behind. We, as a Nation, must remember them so we can begin to heal, to unite, and find purpose as one Nation to defeat this pandemic.

In their memory, the First Lady and I will be joined by the Vice President and the Second Gentleman for a moment of silence at the White House this evening. I ask all Americans to join us as we remember the more than 500,000 of our fellow Americans lost to COVID19 and to observe a moment of silence at sunset. I also hereby order, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and laws of the United States, that the flag of the United States shall be flown at half-staff at the White House and on all public buildings and grounds, at all military posts and naval stations, and on all naval vessels of the Federal Government in the District of Columbia and throughout the United States and its Territories and possessions until sunset February 26, 2021. I also direct that the flag shall be flown at half-staff for the same period at all United States embassies, legations, consular offices, and other facilities abroad, including all military facilities and naval vessels and stations.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-second day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-one, and of the Independence of the United States of America the

two hundred and forty-fifth.

JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR. 

--END--

First of all, let us note that this is a grim and tragic marker.  500,000 lives cut short, and we're not out of the woods yet.  Not by a long shot.

But breaking this down, what does it mean, and is it actually accurate?

First, let me note that what I did was to link in the state's endorsement of President Biden's proclamation. So that we can be sure we're reading it correctly, let's first link in the actual proclamation:

A Proclamation on Remembering the 500,000 Americans Lost to COVID-19

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 • PRESIDENTIAL ACTIONS

As of this week during the dark winter of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 500,000 Americans have now died from the virus.  That is more Americans who have died in a single year of this pandemic than in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War combined.  On this solemn occasion, we reflect on their loss and on their loved ones left behind.  We, as a Nation, must remember them so we can begin to heal, to unite, and find purpose as one Nation to defeat this pandemic.

In their memory, the First Lady and I will be joined by the Vice President and the Second Gentleman for a moment of silence at the White House this evening.  I ask all Americans to join us as we remember the more than 500,000 of our fellow Americans lost to COVID-19 and to observe a moment of silence at sunset.  I also hereby order, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and laws of the United States, that the flag of the United States shall be flown at half-staff at the White House and on all public buildings and grounds, at all military posts and naval stations, and on all naval vessels of the Federal Government in the District of Columbia and throughout the United States and its Territories and possessions until sunset February 26, 2021.  I also direct that the flag shall be flown at half-staff for the same period at all United States embassies, legations, consular offices, and other facilities abroad, including all military facilities and naval vessels and stations.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-second day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-one, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-fifth.              

JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

And, as can be seen, the linked in text was in fact correctly quoted by the Governor.  I know that linking that in is pedantic, but we want to be quoting correctly.

And I'm not faulting Governor Gordon or President Biden for the half mast order.  Indeed, I think it may be a useful reminder to the living that this isn't over yet and precautions are still needed.  We certainly don't want to hit the 1,000,000 mark.

None the less, can deaths due to disease really be compared to combat deaths?

Let's start with this, is it correct that the 500,000 tragic deaths amount to "more Americans who have died . .  than in World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War combined"?

116,516 Americans are officially listed as having died in World War I.

405,399 Americans officially lost their lives due to World War Two, although some figures will add in another 2,000.

58,209 Americans were lost in the Vietnam War.

You don't need the aid of a calculator to realize that President Biden is wrong.  500,000 Americans is a lot of lost lives, and it is tragic, but the combined totals of the three wars noted exceed 500,000.  Perhaps not grossly, but they do exceed them.  That's 580,124 lives lost in combat in the three wars noted.*

Or do they?

President Biden here correctly mourns and laments those who have died due to SARS-CoV-2 during this pandemic, but those are lives lost to a viral agent.  I.e., something loose in nature.  Lives lost in war are those lost due to the direct killing action of other men, in one fashion or another.  Now, I don't want to get into the "yeah, but if so and so had done something earlier. . . " type argument here, which just goes down a rat hole and looses point of this.  The point is, that death by infectious disease is inherently incomparable to death due to war.

Indeed, in human experience, death due to lethal pandemic often grossly exceeds death due to war, even if it occurs in the same time frame.

For example, 116,516 Americans died due to combat during World War One.  675,000 Americans died during the same time period due to the Spanish Flu.

Now, that's a useful statistic.  The Spanish Flu Epidemic and the Coronavirus Pandemic are in fact directly comparable as they're both viral pandemics, save for perhaps the argument that the Spanish Flu Pandemic was made worse by World War One, and perhaps caused by World War One. The first argument is undoubtedly correct.

Indeed, for that reason, although we won't develop it here, you could argue that the 116,516 lives lost due to the Great War need to be added to the 675,000 lost due to the Spanish Flu to get a full scale of lives lost due to the global disaster that was the Great War.  And that argument would in fact make a lot of sense.  We have a ways to go, thankfully, before we reach that mark, although we may very well reach it.  That figure is over 719,000 lives lost.

Be that as it may, we also have to keep in mind that the American population was 92,000,000 in the 1910s.  Lets' say it was 100,000,000, even though we were not there yet.

Looked at that way, the 675,000 would be the equivalent of about 2,000,000 deaths today.  For that matter, the World War One combat deaths, which I didn't add into that, would be equivalent to over 300,000 now.

We're not anywhere close to 2,000,000 deaths, thankfully, and hopefully we will have this in check before we are.

Going back more than a century starts becoming really problematic in such analysis, although it is tempting to do so.  Indeed, it can be argued that even going back a century is not a valid comparison as it was before modern medicine to a significant degree.   There were no effective antibiotics at the time, for example, and while antibiotics do absolutely nothing in regard to a virus, it can help keep a viral infection from developing into something else which is lethal.  For example, we just read the other day of the death of George Gipp, who was infected by strep throat that rapidly killed him. Today, that wouldn't occur. And indeed, there were no effective anti virals either.  No wonder the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu was such a killer.

Indeed, we just passed the 75th anniversary of the discovery of penicillin, the great anti biotic.

Still, we can recognize the 1918-19 Flu as there are those still among us, small in number though they are, who are still with us.  Many families retain some memories of the flu (ours does) and its impact.  And our current society is a direct evolution of that one, even though much has changed.  And of course our governments were highly developed at the time, particularly given that the 1918-19 Flu occurred during a time of war, and therefore mass societal mobilization.

For this reason, going back further, is problematic.  For example, what became the United States lost 6,800 men to death by combat during the American Revolution.  17,000 Americans died of disease, however, although its significant that the majority of them were prisoners of war at the time.  The population, however, was a shade under 3,000,000 (and growing incredibly rapidly) which would mean that the equivalent loss, in modern terms, would have been about 680,000 combat deaths and 1,700,000 deaths due to disease in contemporary terms, or about the same disease loss, oddly enough, as the Spanish Flu had in the Great War period in the United States.  But as noted, these figures would be of questionable utility.

So, what does all this tell us?

500,000 deaths is a terrible tragedy, but the frequent comparison to war, while inevitable, really isn't historically or statically valuable except as a loose measuring stick. What that probably tells us, more than anything else, is that as a species we're geared toward understanding loses due to war, so we use those figures as its easy for us to do it, even though that doesn't really tell us anything.  We are, that is, psychologically geared toward thinking about fighting an invading enemy.  We are apparently less psychologically geared towards thinking about fighting an invading virus.

Indeed, the oppose may in fact be true. We've always lived with killer diseases, but we haven't always really understood them very well, and overall the evidence suggest we really still don't quite, on a day to day personal basis. During the 1918-19 pandemic we really didn't get a handle on it.  When inoculations first were introduced some societies around the globe believed all sorts of fanciful scary tales about it.  Some religions eschew them today for reasons that have very little to do with what is found in any faith.  Folk medicines remain just as popular as ever, and included in that are a collection of myths about vaccinations in general and this one in particular.  We remain pretty willing to line up for uniforms when wars come, but much less so to the wearing of uniform masks in times of pandemic.

Footnotes.

*It's interesting how the Korean War, which had a loss of life comparable to Vietnam's, is skipped, as usual, even though the lives lost in that war occurred in a much shorter period of time.

Cliff Notes of the Zeitgeist Part 2, More random observations of the times.

February 10, 2021

Holding up Haaland. . . and others.

Senator Lummis is threatening to oppose Deb Haaland's appointment of the Secretary of the Interior until the Biden Administration comes to the table, in the words of the Tribune, on oil and gas production on Federal lands.

Senator Barrasso is apparently taking the same approach as to additional Biden appointees.

The thing that's not clear to me is the extent to which they can do this.  As they're in the minority, holding up appointees depends on the rules of the Senate, which have been based on traditional Senate collegiately, something that's now largely absent.

Pearl Milling Company?

Some time ago we ran this item:

Lex Anteinternet: Aunt Jemima, Uncle Ben and Mrs. Buttersworth depar...: Back on May 2, before we ended up wherever we currently are on the national timeline, I posted an item about the departure of Mia from the L...

The Aunt Jemima Brand will now be Pearl Milling Company.  Apparently that was the name of the flour mill where the flour for what became the former brand was first milled. 

Sister Andre

Sister Andre, a retired nun in France, who was born a Protestant, coverted to Cathoicism at age 19 and work in hospitals for 28 years before becoming a nun at age 40, has survived COVID 19.

While that may not seem remarkable at first, she also survived the 1918 Flu Pandemic. She's 117 years old.

Related threads:

Cliff notes of the Zeitgeist Part I. Some Observations on current events, political, economic, religious, and otherwise.

Be careful out there.

Okay, this is going to be an uncheery, pre Thanksgiving Day post.  But I'm going to note it anyhow.

This is about Coronavirus nonobservance and a modicum of self protection.  

Now, what I don't mean is the topic of people who dispute wearing masks entirely or things of that type.  No, what I mean is the interesting behavior of people who acknowledge all the public warnings and the instructions, and really feel they should be observed. . . except when it comes themselves.

I've noted it a lot.

This includes nearly every kind of recommendation regarding the disease, but most particularly the "don't pack up" and "wear a mask" in groups recommendations, warnings or orders.  People who will wear masks for their daily activities and wipe stuff down, but if they regularly go to the bars simply suspend every precaution.  It's as if they feel that COVID 19 lurks office hallways and grocery stores during the day, but it takes the night off if people go to the bar.  

Or people who wring their hands in angst when a family member gets the disease, as perhaps they should, but don't see any of the precautions that they felt should be taken regarding the afflicted one anywhere else.  "Wear a mask. . .stay inside. . .don't get near Cousin Luigi. . . let's go down to Walmart and I forgot my mask. . . "

We're gong to see a lot of that over the next several days, probably the next couple of months.

There are those who wouldn't dare go out in a crowd right now who will go into crowded kitchens on Thanksgiving Day, as you can only get the disease from coworkers or strangers at the supermarket, not Cousin Harry whose day job is taking complaints at the Denver International Airport "I lost my luggage from Wuhan" department and who at night is the accordion player for Sparky Spark and the Spunky Bunch.  Some people are going to linger maskless for holiday drinks with a coworker even though the spouse of the coworker has been sick in bed with "something" for the last few days, as you can't get it from somebody you are in close association with, only strangers.  People who will spray down an work surface with every known anti viral or anti bacterial substance right up to and including DDT, Agent Orange and Zyklon B will at the same time go about their regular day even though Junior was sent home from 7th Grade "not feeling well".  Some people are going go, as they do every day, for the Massive Flapjack, Waffle and Lox Bruch Hootenanny at Gigantic Twenty Four Hour Eatery as their pals are there and you can't get it from them, only those strangers that lurk at the mall.

And as the holidays are commencing some are going to hit the mall as its the holidays on the joyless Black Friday that always follows Thanksgiving, that day after which we honor the old Christian holiday giving thanks to God for the food on our tables by going out and buying a bunch of stuff in anticipation of missing the point of Christmas.

Okay, so what am I saying.

Well, I guess I'm in part saying the same thing the old desk sergeant did n the old series Hill Street Blues; "be careful out there".  

And I'm also saying folks need to think just a bit.  I don't want all the eateries and taverns out of business by any means, and I sure want small businesses to make it, but the lesson of the Spanish Flu is one to keep in mind.  It's called that as the King of Spain got it in 1918.

You aren't the King of Spain.

King Alfonso XIII.  If a pandemic could reach him. . . it can get to you.

Be careful out there.

Blog Mirror: Dos and Don’ts for Back to School, Pandemic Edition

Dos and Don’ts for Back to School, Pandemic Edition

California, 1918.

And note, there's always somebody who wears their mask improperly.

Pondering the 1918/1919 Influenza Pandemic

The 1918 Flu: A Pandemic Sweeps Wyoming

We've posted this once before, but as I'm going to refer to it again on the site I'm posting it again.  It's an excellent article.

Part of the reason I'm posting this is that this article has been getting a lot of renewed attention due to the COVID 19 pandemic.  Like everything by Roberts, it deserves the attention its getting.  I was going t repost it about a week or so ago, but as I'd posted it before, I didn't at that time.  however, as I'm referring to it in an answer to a question that's been posted yesterday, I thought I'd note it again.

I'll also note that the 18/19 Flu is getting a lot of attention in the press due to current events, and one of the things that is locally drawing attention is the steps taken to combat it.  The Wyoming Tribune Eagle (which occasionally quotes our This Day book), recently ran an article stating, about quaratines that first appeared in Kemmerer:

As precautionary measures, the health officials sanctioned the cancellation of all parties and the closure of churches, movie houses and theaters – anywhere that large groups of people congregated together. 

Most people took these sanctions to heart, but there was no penalty for not doing so. It wouldn’t be until the crisis got worse that the recommendations would become orders.

In the meantime, doctors made recommendations that might sound familiar: If you are sick, stay home in bed, stay at least five feet from people, cover your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, and stay away from people who are noticeably ill. Droplets from coughing, sneezing, talking and laughing were the source of the disease’s spread. There was an immediate effort to ban public spitting on sidewalks, stairs and streetcars.
Some folk wisdom crept into the papers as well: Refrain from wearing tight clothes and shoes, keep cool while walking and warm while sleeping. These had little effect on the disease, but some, such as warnings not to use public towels or drinking cups, seem like common sense today. One thing neither professionals nor good Samaritans mentioned was to wash your hands, especially after caring for a sick family member. 

On Oct. 8, the Spanish Flu arrived in Cheyenne. At first, only 10 people were stricken with the disease. Not taking any chances, Superintendent A.L. Jessup followed health officials’ recommendations and closed the city’s schools Oct. 9. He asked parents to keep their children close to home and not let them loiter in the neighborhoods, something parents were reluctant to do. Pool halls and saloons remained open, although loitering in the depot lobby was banned. 

On Oct. 10, the cases in Cheyenne sprang up to 50 persons. In response, all libraries and club reading rooms closed. Civic organizations cancelled meetings. To prevent loitering, cigar stores were ordered to pull their seats or box them up. Soda fountains had to remove their chairs and stools. On Oct. 11, Gov. Frank Houx ordered all saloons, pool halls, Red Cross work rooms and night schools across the state closed. By public order, all funerals would be private family affairs. 

By Oct. 15, the increasing count of flu cases jumped by 100 in less than 48 hours. Police chased children off the streets, while doctors pleaded with restaurants to change the worst of their habits.

County 10 News had an interesting article regarding events in Fremont County (hence "County 10", it's license plate number), in which it noted that the local newspaper was complaining about orders put in place by that county's health official in October, 1918.  None the less, local quaranties there soon expanded, as it reports:

 A little more than a week later, Dr. Thomas Maghee, the doctor serving at the State Training School was appointed the health officer of Lander. He issued a quarantine order that read as follows: 

A quarantine, with all its objectionable features, is imposed for the object, to stamp out and terminate an epidemic, thus preventing much suffering and even loss of life. 

The prime necessity is to PREVENT CONTACT of infected persons with those who are well. Therefore, a person will not be permitted to assemble on the street corners, in places of amusement or in business houses. 

TWO PERSONS are an assemblage under the law. 

Persons who have symptoms of the Influenza or who have recently had it, must remain at home or suffer arrest. 

Visiting between families and acquaintances must cease at once. Ladies with children must remain at home and keep their children with them. 

Children are absolutely forbidden to be on the streets or to visit neighbors. Special arrangements will be made by the authorities when necessary to use a child to send on errands. Children found on the street, without a permit will be arrested. 

Hotels are permitted to allow only the guests from out of town to remain about the lobbies. And the people of the town must not congregate there. 

Merchants will deliver supplies to the quarantined houses when requested.
Crowds assembling at the newsstand, the depot or post office will no longer be permitted. Until further orders, one person ONLY at ANY ONE TIME will be permitted to enter or remain in a saloon as long as it is necessary to get a drink, nor can persons frequent cigar or candy stand except under the same circumstances.

The Powell Tribune also recently looked back at the 1918/19 flu in this context, noting:

There was good news with the end of World War I hostilities a week later, but no end to the flu quarantine. In fact, the Powell Tribune of Nov. 22 recorded even stricter quarantine rules issued by the town council. The post office lobby was closed for two hours at mid-day. Stores could remain open for business, but it became unlawful for anyone to be in a store except to transact business. And children were required to stay home. 

The town council stated flatly “an emergency exists.” 

Quarantine regulations made it unlawful for parents to allow their children “to congregate or play with other children in this town, or allow or permit them to congregate or play on the streets or property within town except on the premises where they live.” 

As November drew to a close, the Powell Tribune still expressed hope the quarantine was doing its job. 

“According to the report of our local health authorities this morning, there are now only about a dozen cases of influenza in Powell, and as none of the patients are seriously ill, it is taken as a hopeful sign that the situation is improving,” the Tribune reported on Nov. 29. 

But it was not to be. Nor would there be public festivities for Christmas. For many Powell homes there was profound grief and gloom during the Christmas season. According to research by Park County Archives Curator Brian Beauvais, 187 cases of the flu were reported in Powell that December, on the heels of 89 cases in November.

 Elsewhere events caused advertisements to appear that are reminiscent of what we're seeing now, in our own era.  Hard hit in 1918/19, and hard hit again in 2020, Teton County's paper of a century ago had merchants noting business restrictions as follows:

Yes, a century ago we're seeing curbside due to quarantines. . .  just like we've been seeing this past month.

Things went further:

So what to take away from all of this?

Well, even though the 1918/19 Flu is something we posted on here well before we started daily entries on events 100 years past here, we've done a really poor job of what it was really like. We just rolled right over the news of the era, noting it, but not really digging deep into it.  World War One was our focus. But for people enduring the 18/19 Flu, it was more than something playing in the background, it was the major daily event of their lives.

And those lives were hugely disrupted by it, then as now.  Quarantines were put in effect all over the state.  Then, like now, there were some in some places that objected to the restrictions when they first came in.  According to at least one Wyoming newspaper, relaxing things too soon caused the disease to advance, although with a titanic viral wave of the type faced at that time, before there was any vaccine, that's pretty debatable.

It's common in these retrospectives to note, if a lesson is supposed to be drawn, that "we've been through this before", but most of us really haven't.  Therefore, we can't really claim that we should be encouraged by the suffering endured in 1918/1919.  Indeed, I've heard some pretty bad attempts at that including one just the other day by somebody who noted that in his family they'd kept on keeping on, but entire family groups had died.  That's not exactly something that encourages us now.  If anything, should comfort at all, it's the long pause that's given by the fact that to some extent such events are the human norm, the species will get through it, and we're all just passing through anyhow, something that gives few people comfort.

But for historians and fans of history, there's something else here.  And that is this. We're living through history right now.  The current pandemic dominates our thinking and the news right now, and soon a major recession will, and is already starting to.  Locally, the absolute crash in oil prices is on a lot of our minds.

So are cancelled high school graduations and weddings, birthdays for children that are on Zoom, and a gloom that settles over everything we do.  It must have been like that during the winter of 1918/1919 as well.  We look back and think of the Spring Offensive of 1918, the Battle of Belleau Wood, the end of the German and Austrian Empires, and the like. But for people living at the time, there was a lot going on, and a lot of it was pretty bad.  Maybe there's some odd comfort in that, and maybe that's a lesson on taking in our sense of history a little less compartmentalized than we tend to do.