Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 5. The Roller Coaster Edition.

 

April 10, 2025

On April 2, Trump, using bogus emergency powers, imposed an insane tariff regime on nearly every country in the world, save for Russia, based on trade imbalances, showing a juvenile understanding of that topic at best.

This caused markets to crash and the economy to head to what might optimistically have been a recession, and perhaps more realistically a depression.

Yesterday the tariffs were paused for 90 days, save for the ones on China, the latter of which has retaliated with a 104% tariff on US goods.

Earlier tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff imposed on everyone, remain.

This policy is still disastrous, simply less so than the really steep tariffs that Trump had claimed were permanent, and then which turned out to perhaps not be after foreign holders began to dump US bonds.

And so here we are.  

Congress has the power to end this madness as it has delegated these completely bogus emergency powers to the Red Caesar, but it won't as the national GOP is now some sort of strange Peronist/Authoritarian party dedicated to extremism.  The roller coaster ride isn't over, it's just on some lower bends.  The whims and beliefs of one man now hold the global economy in peril.

Highly relevant to Wyoming:

Despite the strong relief rally on Wednesday, following President Trump’s 90-day pause of tariff hikes on most countries except China, the U.S. benchmark oil price is now lower than the breakeven for the shale industry to profitably drill a new well.

 OilPrice.com

Cont:

Speaker of the House Johnson had to pull the budget bill from consideration due to right wing concerns over the deficit, which are rightly placed.  Apparently as of this morning he has enough votes to advance the bill.

Cont:

After massively rallying late yesterday, stocks are once again dropping this morning.

Cont:

The Dow closed 1,000 points down.

Oil fell to $60.23/bbl. after having gone up a little during the day at first.

The decline is starting to set in, which not only makes it a bear market, but which shows that long term prospects for the economy are fading.

April 11, 2025

China raised its tariffs on US goods to 125%.

April 13, 2025

The Trump administration is now excluding certain electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs.

April 14, 2025

The weekend shows made it clear that the reprieve on electronics tariffs is temporary, and more directed ones will be coming.

Regarding the weekend shows:

A Disturbing Trifecta

On a US industry that may in fact feel quick relief in their sector from the tariffs, a headline from the Tribune:

GULF SHRIMPERS CHEER ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS SEAFOOD INDUSTRY 

Cheap imports cause US industry to lose 50% of market value

April 17, 2025

Wyoming hospital districts face ‘painful’ funding drop with property tax cut: The state’s 15 hospital districts are among hundreds of entities that will see tax revenue declines. It’s a blow to an already fragile sector, health care representatives say.

It’s Not Known If The 6-10 UW Students Who Had Visas Revoked Are Still On Campus

April 19, 2025

Mack Trucks is laying off between 250 and 350 workers at its Lehigh Valley Operations center in Pennsylvania, citing economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.

President Trump’s tariff war isn’t going well, with market ructions and evidence of a slowing economy. So it was probably inevitable that Mr. Trump would demand that the Federal Reserve ride to his rescue by cutting interest rates…The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

April 22, 2025

Donald Trump started the day be rebuking businessmen who lack faith in his actions on the econmy.

By the end of the day, the economy rebuked him.

Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal

Few think administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain

 

Stocks End Sharply Lower. The Dow Is on Pace for Worst April Since 1932.

The Wall Street Journal and Barrons.

Most AmeriCorps staff members were placed on leave.

cont:

Trump has been attacking Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Trump in his first legitimate administration.  It's now being theorized that this is so that Trump will have a scapegoat for crashing the economy, which is occurring. The statute of limitations on blaming Biden has basically expired.

cont: 

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported today that Trump’s policies mean the U.S. economy may fall into a Recession and shrink by 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4 2025 with inflation rising to 4.6% by the end of the year.

The result would be stagflation.

April 23, 2025

After threatening Jerome Powell for a few days, Trump backed off.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the ongoing tariffs war against China is unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war.

Trump suggested he was going to cut China's tariffs substantially. China has not reached out to negotiate.

Classic Trump cycle.  Do something stupid. . . something bad happens. . . claims problem is solved and things will be fine. . . reverses decision.

April 24, 2025

Elon Musk is going back to Tesla, which has taken a hammering since Musk became the chief doggy of DOGE, for the most part.  He apparently will still have some association with the kennel, according to his statement, but my guess is that will end pretty quickly.

Whether Tesla will also end, given its economic slide, is another question. With Musk barking at liberals, and Tesla's being sort of a liberal status symbol at one time, it may simply decline into oblivion.

Texas, which has been following Trump in all things Trumplike, just created its own DOGE.

April 29, 2025

Amazon announced that it is adding the price of tariffs to the cost of items.

D'uh.

Interestingly, it's going to post the price of the tariffs on the items it lists.

Carline Levitt, on behalf of the administration, declared "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon", expressing a view which apparently shows that the Administration is either completely dim on how pricing works, or seeking scapegoats for a policy that it nows is going to hit in May and be massively unpopular.  It'd rather you not know, apparently, although people will soon figure that out anyhow.

April 30, 2025

Trump called Bezos and Amazon backed off.

UPS is laying off 20,000 drivers in anticipation of reduced Amazon shipments.

The economy shrank last quarter. Trump blamed President Biden.

May 1, 2025

Here's the current price of oil:

WTI Crude 56.88

Brent Crude 59.75

This is way below the Wyoming price marketability figure.  If this holds, this will result in the crash of Wyoming oil.

Trump's economic propogandists keep pointing to the price of oil going down, which it has been, as proof of his tariffs working. They are working to depress the price of oil, but because the price of oil is an economic indicator.  When it goes down, it means there's an anticipated or actual low demand, usually.  Production gluts are also a cause, but that's not the cause here.

Prices went down on everything, I"d note, during the Great Depression, once it was really rolling.

This is bad news, for Wyoming in particular.

DOGE cuts to AmeriCorps ‘a devastating blow to the state of Wyoming’: “What I struggle with most is that this is somehow an act of efficiency,” one stakeholder told WyoFile, adding that $40 is returned for every federal dollar invested in service in Wyoming.

In the 100 Day Cabinet meeting in which Trump's loyal retainers heaped praise upon him, the Dear Leader noted sacrifice in that maybe children this Christmas shall get only two dolls, instead of 30.

Let them eat cake. 

May 3, 2025

There is no question that trade can be an act of war. It has led to bad things — the attitudes that it has brought out. In the United States, we should be looking to trade with the rest of the world. And we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best. That’s what we did originally. We were good at producing tobacco and cotton 250 years ago and we traded it. We want a prosperous world but eight countries with nuclear weapons, including a few that I would call quite unstable, I do not think it’s a great idea where a few countries say ‘hahaha we won,” and other countries are envious.

Warren Buffet today.

May 5, 2025

And now we're going to hit foreign movies with a 100% tariff, apparently.

May 6, 2025

Governor sees ‘opportunity’ for Wyoming in Trump tariff war. Economist sees ‘disaster.’: State's trona and soda ash industry is particularly vulnerable to losing global buyers, while Gordon sees potential bright spots for mineral commodities, as well as new manufacturing.

May 7, 2025

If the large increase in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slow down in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.

Jerome Powell.

May 8, 2025

The US and the UK have apparently reached a trade deal, although the details are murky.

May 12, 2025

The US and China have agreed to cut tariffs for 90 days.

This is causing a stock market rally, but the roller coaster nature of this is once again notable.

John Barrasso was on Meet The Press yesterday and cited gas prices as evidence of Trump's economic wisdom, when in fact its ironically the opposite.

Related threads:

The Cost Meter. A Trade War Index.

Labels: 2020s, 2025, Clothing, Coal, Coffee, Petroleum, Taxes, The Madness of King Donald, The Tariff Recession, Trump Trade Wars

Last edition:

Subsidiarity Economics 2025. The Times more or less locally, Part 4. The Mutually Assured Tariff Destruction and Wacky Math Edition.

Labels: Autarky, Donald Trump, Economics, Errare humanum est perseverare diabolicum, Sic transit Gloria Mundi, Taxes, The Second Trump Administration, Trump Trade Wars, Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Friday, May 11, 1945. The USS Bunker Hill.

The USS Bunker Hill was badly damaged by kamikaze attacks, something that had been an unrelenting feature of the Japanese defense of Okinawa as part of Operation Ten-Go.

The Battle of West Henan–North Hubei ended in tactical stalemate but a Japanese operational victory.

Soldiers of the US Army who had commenced combat with Operation Torch and who had gone on to serve in Europe were exempted from further combat deployment.  Fighting was still raging all over the Pacific, with troops meeting stiff resistance in New Guinea, the Philippines, and Okinawa as examples.

Soldiers at a familiarization course for newly arrived soldiers on Okinawa, May 11, 1945.

The Australians took Wewak, New Guinea.

The Red Army continued to encounter German units that had not yet surrendered.  In Yugoslavia German Group Ostmark refused to surrender and kept fighting Yugoslav forces.

German forces began to surrender in the Aegean.

Last edition:

Thursday, May 10, 1945. Guderian surrenders.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Channel Islands, Czechoslovakia, France, Luzon, Okinawa, Prague Czechoslovakia, Prisoners of War, Red Army, World War Two

Saturday, May 3, 1975. End of the Cultural Revolution.

Chinese Communist Party, Chairman Mao Zedong spoke out against the Cultural Revolution and the Gang of Four in his last speech to the Politburo.

All former South Vietnamese military personnel and government officials were ordered to register with the new government.  This was the first step to sending them to reeducation camps.

The city of Jerusalem was hit by missiles for the first time, after two Czechoslovakian made Katyusha rockets struck 500 meters from the Knesset parliament building.  They were fired by Arab guerillas.

New edition:

Friday, May 2, 1975. Hold outs.

Labels: 1970s, 1975, Animals, Army, Army of the Republic of Vietnam, Battle of Long Xuyên, Bears, National Zoo, Saigon Vietnam, South Vietnam, The Fall of Saigon, United States Forest Service, Vietnam War, Zoos

Clothing, then and now, and a lost manufacturing base.

derek guy@dieworkwear

at the turn of the 20th century, working class men had something like two pairs of pants, three shirts, and a pair of boots. middle class men wore detachable collars bc shirts were expensive. one man died bc he got drunk. his head drooped & he choked to death on his stiff collar

Very interesting, really, and not just in the context of the Very Stable Genius and his trade war with China, but in terms of the focus of this page.  

I've discussed this before, but cheap clothing is a post World War Two thing.  The entire series of jokes about people having vast numbers of shoes, or t-shirts that are decades old, reflects a bonafide change in how people live.  I recall my father mentioning that at one time it was considered ideal to buy a suit with two pairs of pants, as you could stretch out the cleaning.

Clothing now costs less, and frankly it lasts a lot longer, than it once did.

Indeed, how often do you really wear out clothing?  I'm do wear out shits, but waistline expansion over time is more likely to render my trousers unwearable than really wearing them out is.  Granted, part of that is because I have a fair number of them.  If I was wearing the same two or three pairs of trousers every day, the story would be different.  But they also simply last longer than they once did.

This is really intended to be an observation on clothing, then and now, but a little remark about now is warranted.

I have a cotton Colorado Rockies kelly green baseball hat sitting here where I'm typing.  If you look at the label, it's made in China.  Lots of Levis are made in Vietnam.  We have, truly, exported clothing manufacturing overseas, which is to say, the producers did.  I do lament that, but do U.S. consumers want to pay more for clothing?  I wonder.

I guess with tariffs, we'll find out.

I have, as readers  here know, a fondness for M65 Field Jackets.  I'd like to have an OG 107 one for every day wear.  I thought one would be easy to find, but they aren't, so I ordered one, to my present regret, from Propper.  It came Chinese made (of course) and the size is completely wrong.  I should have sent it back, but I didn't, as my extreme introverted nature precludes me from doing so.  I thought maybe I could shrink it, but it doesn't look like I'll be able to.  Anyhow, it's just wrong.  

I note this as US military uniforms are in fact made in the U.S., and indeed I believe there may be a statutory requirement to that effect.  Some years ago there was a scandal when the US ended up with some berets that were made overseas.  I've heard of the military actually checking to make certain that soldiers don't deploy with foreign made gear, but that must be tougher than ever, with the loss of so much of the US manufacturing base.

All of which is to say that I'm sympathetic with those who lament that loss.  But the time to really address it came and went some thirty to forty to fifty years ago and, if could be addressed, which is a huge if, it can't be done all at once.

And, my Propper M65 Field Jacket aside, things made overseas are not, by and large, of cheap quality anymore.  Some things surely are.  The stuff you get at Harbor Freight might be second rate. . . or not.  As overseas manufacturing has increased, quality has too.

Easter Sunday, April 12, 1925. Metropolitan Peter of Krutitsy (Pyotr Fyodorovich Polyansky) installed as the Patriarch of Moscow.

Portable radio?

Radio in the Canadian Rockies, 1925

Metropolitan Peter of Krutitsy (Pyotr Fyodorovich Polyansky) was installed as the Patriarch of Moscow on the same day as the funeral for his predecessor, Patriarch Tikhon of Moscow. 

Peter had been identified in Tikhon's will as one of his three potential successors.  He was selected by the council of 59 bishops because "the first two were already in prison."  Peter would later suffer imprisonment himself and was executed by the barbarous Soviet state in 1937.  The Russian Orthodox Church has declared him to be a Hieromartyr.

Tikhon's funeral in Moscow was the last major public Russian Orthodox Church event and the last major religious event in the Soviet Union for over 60 years.

It should be noted that in the Orthodox East, it was not Easter Sunday, like it was in the west.  Easter for the Orthodox would fall on April 19.

France, following the UK's example, agreed that its indemnities for the Boxer Rebellion should go to railway construction in China.

Last edition:

Holy Saturday, April 11, 1925. East of the Sun, West of the Moon.Labels: 1920s, 1925, Central Asia, Easter, Exploration, Holy Week, hunting, James Simpson-Roosevelt Asiatic Expedition, Roosevelt

Friday, April 11, 1975. The looming end for Cambodia and the NVA takes the Spratlys.

North Vietnam took control of the Spratly Islands, which had been controlled by the Republic of Vietnam. The landing forces consisted of NVA special forces, but the islands were lightly defended. Interestingly, Communist Vietnam today still recognizes a South Vietnamese defense of the islands against China, which are also claimed by China, as heroic.

While portrayed in Vietnamese propaganda as a great victory, the operation was only a success due to the extreme distress that South Vietnam was then in, and the fact that the U.S. Navy didn't intervene. Additionally, and importantly, the islands had no strategic value to the ongoing offensive, but with South Vietnam collapsing, the North Vietnamese no doubt correctly guessed that if they did not take the islands, China would.

I should note that this is somewhat confusing, as there are numerous small islands in the chain, and not all of them are occupied by the Vietnamese.

Some tourism of the islands takes place today.

A White House conversation took place regarding Operation Eagle Pull.

President: I would like to be brought up to date on where we are and what we are going to do. We will restrict ourselves to Cambodia. I am optimistic and I think we will make it.

Schlesinger: “Eagle Pull” will commence at 0900 local. They will be on the ground one hour and 20 minutes total. It will be completed by 11:30 p.m. our time if all goes well.

There’ll be 33 helicopters, including three for search and rescue. The first twelve will hold 346 Marines.

President: Will Long Boret go?

Kissinger: “Eagle Pull” will collapse the Government. Even if Long Boret doesn’t, enough of his people will go that it will collapse.

President: Do we know if there will be much fighting? There will be a crowd gathering, but there is a better than 50% chance of getting out without fighting.

Brown: There will be air cover but it will only return fire if fire is directed on the evacuation and only to protect the evacuation. The helicopters will come in a stream from the Carrier Ubon and peel off from hold points. We can do it all in one lift unless there are too many Khmer.

Schlesinger: We must do it all in one lift.

Brown: The Khmer have quite a lift capability of their own.

Kissinger: Do the Khmer think it is over or is this an American decision?

Brown: It is a U.S. decision. Our intelligence thinks tomorrow will be the last day, but probably it would come on the 13th, an auspicious time.

President: There will be air cover?

Buchen: Yes. They will be under positive control all the time and under FAC.

President: By what authority is this being done?

Schlesinger: The rescue operation is to protect American lives, any fire is to protect American lives and Khmer evacuation is incidental to the American evacuation.

Buchen: Yes. The Khmer evacuation is incidental.

Marsh: We would use the same force anyway, wouldn’t we?

Schlesinger: If we had gotten it down to 50 Americans, we would have used a much smaller force and got them out in 10 minutes.

Kissinger: I think we should say we are stretching the law so we don’t run counter to the President’s request of last night.2

Rumsfeld: Don’t use “incidental”—because there are five times as many Khmers and it will be seen as a subterfuge.

Schlesinger: The original list contained 50 Khmer. That has swollen to 1,100. It is there we might be vulnerable.

President: I would think there would be a crowd gathered.

Schlesinger: We can use Red Cross agents. And they have C130’s.

Buchen: Why do we take them out then?

Schlesinger: Ask State.

Kissinger: It was assumed that the airfield would be unusable. We didn’t want to pull the plug by talking to them about evacuation.

[The statements to be read and given to Congress were reviewed.]

President: There is no connection between this and the Vietnam evacuation. There is no connection at all. This is a unique situation.

Brown: Unless we give orders, the Marine Commander may load up with Khmer and leave the Marines, thus necessitating a second flight.

President: I agree. The Commander should be told that all Americans must be aboard the last chopper.

 The ARVN put up still resistance at Xuan Loc.

April 11, 1975: The J.P. Parisé Game

A unique flight:

11 April 1975

Last edition:

Thursday, April 10, 1975. A request, and a denial, for aid.

Labels: 94th Congress, Cambodia, Ethnicities, Gerald Ford, Golf, India, Kingdom of Sikkim, Kingdom of Sikkum, Operation Eagle Pull, South Vietnam, Vietnam, Vietnam War

Monday, April 9, 1945. The End of B-17 Production.

"Tankmen of the 781st Tank Battalion, supporting the 100th Infantry Division, relax while awaiting the construction of a new bridge across the Neckar River in Heilbronn, Germany. The former pontoon bridge put in by the engineers was knocked out by effective and accurate artillery fire. 9 April, 1945.  781st Tank Battalion, 100th Infantry Division."

Photographer: T/4 Irving Leibowitz, 163rd Signal Photo Co.

The Battle of Königsberg ended in a Red Army victory.

The Japanese invaded west Hunan.

The Battle of Bologna began in Italy.

The Australian Z Special Force began Operation Opossum with the goal of rescuing the Sultan of Ternate from Ternate Island in Indonesia.

The RAF sank the Admiral Scheer, the U-804, U-843 and the U-1065.

B-17 production stopped in Seattle.

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, age 39, German Lutheran pastor; Wilhelm Canaris, age 58, German admiral; Ludwig Gehre, age 49, German officer; Hans Oster, age 57, German major general; Karl Sack, age 48, German jurist; and Theodor Strünck, age 50, German lawyer, and  Johann Georg Elser, age 42, were executed by the German government.

Last edition:

Sunday, April 8, 1945. Cebu City.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Army, Battle for Cebu City, Croatia, Italy, Operation Amherst, Philippines, South African Army, Weapons, World War Two, Yugoslavia

Saturday, April 7, 1900. The US in the Far East.

The USS Wheeling arrived at Taku Forts to reinforce the US presence in China.

General Arthur MacArthur, the father of Douglas MacArthur and a Civil War hero, was named to replace General Elwell Stephen Otis as military governor of the Philippines.

Over 100 people were killed near Austin, Texas, when the McDonald Dam burst.

Last edition:

Saturday, March 31, 1900. Sanna's Post.

Labels: 1900, 1900s, Boer Armies, Boer War, British Army, Disease

Wednesday, March 18, 1925. The Tri State Tornado.

The deadliest tornado in U.S. History, the Tri State Tornado, swept across the states of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana killing 751 people.

The Yunnan–Guangxi War began in China's Yunnan province over succession of leadership in the Kuomintang.

Last edition:

Saturday, March 14, 1925. Spring.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, Art, Bears, Diplomacy, France, Germany, League of Nations, Vatican City

Tuesday, March 13, 1945. The road to Mandalay.

"These First U.S. Army infantrymen, known as "Grover's Ghosts", are a combat patrol of the 121st Infantry Regiment, 8th Infantry Division. They captured the German town of Seilsdorf using Nazi weapons and equipment after their own ammunition ran out. Hermulheim, Germany. 13 March, 1945."  121st Infantry Regiment, 8th Infantry Division.  Photographer: Pvt. H. Jaquith, 165th Signal Photo Co.

The Battle of Kiauneliškis ended in a Red Army victory with the destruction of the Lithuanian partisan bunkers.

The British Indian 62nd Bde took the last Japanese rail link to Mandalay.

"En route from Kunming, China, to Kai Yuan, China, in the Petrified Forest area. 13 March, 1945.

Entire convoy personnel of Maj. Gen. R. B. McClure, C.G. of C.G.C. and Gen. Ho Ying Chin, Supreme Commander of the Chinese Armies. Photographer: Pfc. E. J. Frayne, Jr."

Last edition:

Monday, March 12, 1945. Santa Fe Riots.

Labels: 1940s, 1945, Arkansas Army National Guard, Battle of Remagen, German Wehrmacht, Internment of Japanese, July 20 Plot, Red Army, World War Two

Thursday, March 12, 1925. Passing of Sun Yat-sen. British rejection of the Geneva Protocol.

Sun Yat-sen died at age 58.

The British government rejected the Geneva Protocol on the basis that the lack of US participating in the League of Nations rendered the Protocol unenforceable.

It's interesting that while the US had competent leadership at the time, as opposed to the rampaging buffoons who govern it now, the isolationist mallogic was strong at the time, helping to doom the world to a Second World War.

The Nazi stand in Großdeutsche Volksgemeinschaft disbanded in favor of the Nazis, with its populist members folding right back in.

Yes, populists.  The Nazi Party was a populist right wing party.

Retired General W. R. E. Murphy, Commissioner of the Dublin Metropolitan Police, launched overnight raids on all of the brothels ("Kip-Houses") in the Irish capital signalling the end of the tolerance of prostitution.

Last edition:

Wednesday, March 11, 1925. Private manufacture of arms.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, Gun Control, It was because of World War One, League of Nations, United Kingdom

The military tell of the tape, which probably isn't what you think, and why we really need allies.

 How things really balance.

Which also shows that the classic "NATO isn't pulling its weight" is bull crap.

Monday, February 23, 1925. Puyi moves.

Deposed Chinese Emperor Puyi accepted a Japanese offer of projection and moved to the  moved to the Japanese concession of Tianjin.

An item from Reddit's 100 Years Ago Today sub:

Truly awful.

It's really the early 1920s, not the 1970s, that gave rise to a really powerful "women's liberation" movement, although you can find it building in the decades prior to that.  The 20s, however, saw it really blossom in much the same way that it would later, with much of the same goals.  As with the movement in the 70s, it met with some pretty nasty counter reactions.

Coeds themselves, meaning women in college, was a fairly new thing in this form.  It wasn't really until the post war economic boom of the 1920s that a lot of women began to leave home to attend college for a secondary education.  

I'm not a feminist, of course, but part of the horror of the Trump years is watching these sorts of attitudes creep back in and begin to be expressed openly.

Last edition:

Saturday, February 21, 1925. A Republican President declares American Forest Week.

Labels: 1920s, 1925, Art, Calvin Coolidge, Cartoons, Clothing, Conservation, Daily Living, Movies, Teenagers, United States Forest Service, Women