Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Sunday, January 31, 1943. Paulus surrenders the German 6th Army at Stalingrad and the war enters its third phase in Europe.

One day after having been promoted to the rank of Field Marshal, and also having been ordered to go down fighting with his command, Friedrich von Paulus surrendered that command to the Red Army.  90,000 men of the original 250,000 of the German 6th Army remained alive, a surprisingly large number in context.  Only 5,000 would return to Germany, many having died due to the Soviet's inability to take care of such a large number of prisoners.

By Bundesarchiv, Bild 183-F0316-0204-005 / CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5362815

Most were German, but not all, at the end.  One of the last Axis anti tank guns to stop firing in the battle was one manned by a Russian crew.

By most measures, the Battle of Stalingrad was the largest battle in human history, although that title could be contested.  By the same token, by most measures, it was the largest battle in modern history, and of World War Two.  Often missed in the story of the epic contest, and German defeat, the Soviets had taken higher casualties than the Axis forces had, with an overall 1,129,619 compared to a potential Axis high of 868,374.  478,741 Soviet combatants were killed, more than the entire number of Germans in the 6th Army.  Axis casualties were rounded out, however, by 114,520 Italian losses, 158,854 Romanian losses, 143,000 Hungarian losses and 52,000 Soviet citizens supporting the Axis forces losses.  The battle was one whose character was defined by it being fought by two totalitarian combatants who had no regard for human life.  The Soviets had the ability to lose more men than the Axis did, and had no real option in regard to retreating further.

The battle had been taken on and fought stupidly by the Germans.  Taking the city was unnecessary and engaging in ongoing house to house fighting pointless. Defending the city, from the Soviet prospective, made a great deal more sense as it served to sap up German resources and arrest German progress.

With the fall of Stalingrad, the war entered a new and more bizarre, indeed sickening, phase.

The first phase of the war had seen the United Kingdom become Germany's principal enemy, and the German war aims had been to consolidate "German" lands in the Reich, subjugate and begin to destroy the Polish people, humble France, and to defeat the UK such that parts of the British Empire could be transferred to Germany.  The first two goals had been achieved, but the UK proved impossible to defeat and in fact was giving nearly as good as it was getting, if not more so, after the withdrawal from the Continent.  The British Empire could not defeat the Germans, but they clearly also could not be defeated by the Germans.

Faced with this, the Germans had toyed with Soviet assistance, and in fact the Soviet Union had been a German ally in this phase, which ran from 1938, with the Austrian Anschluß, to June 22, 1941.  During this phase of the war, the USSR had joined with Germany in the dismemberment of Poland and the murder of Polish elites.  It had also attacked the Baltic States and Finland, with only Finland proving impossible to defeat.  Like the Germans, the Soviets engaged in widespread murder wherever they went, with in this phase of the war the real difference being that the German atrocities, visited upon mass populations for the first time, unlike the Soviet ones which had been going on for two decades, were racial in nature to a much larger degree than the Soviet ones.

Nazi Germany, it is often noted, always had an expressed goal for Lebenstraum in the East, but often missed in that as well is that the Germans were able to put that aside, and on the shelf, as long as it appeared that there was a realistic chance of acquiring British possessions.  Ultimately, it is hard not to imagine the Germans and the Soviets going to war, but up until late 1940, it was not imminent.  After that, it became so as the Germans became increasingly desperate for raw materials for the war against the British Empire, the Soviet Union being the principal source of them.  The Soviets overplayed their hands in this after being invited by the Germans to join in the war against Britain by demanding more of British possessions than the Germans were willing to give.  Confident in their abilities in a land war, the Germans set their sites on the Soviet Union.

June 22, 1941, brought about the second phase of the war, the German Soviet phase.  The Germans expected to rapidly advance, and in fact did at first.  With this they brought murder on a wide scale to Ukraine, the rest of Poland, and Belorussia.  Their murderous intent towards the Jews rapidly evidenced itself wherever they went, and they began their planned colonization of Eastern lands almost immediately.  At the same time, their goals remained, in that phase, the defeat of the Soviet Union.

In the fall of 1942 the German advance stalled out, and the Germans became grossly overextended. Even with the support of Romanian, Hungarian, and Italian allies, they could no longer cover all of the front. The Red Army could.  Early in 1943 the German battlefield fortunes began to rapidly decline.  

With the fall of Stalingrad, a new phase of the war began.  The Germans did not concede defeat, either intellectually or militarily, but internally the central Nazi leadership seems to have grasped it.Thereafter, the goal of the war turned in an unexpressed way towards murder of the Jewish nation as its principal goal, and the mass murder of Jews accelerated and took first place in their war effort.

Franklin Roosevelt returned to the White House after attending the Casablanca Conference.   The conference had arrived upon a declaration, yet to be released, providing that the Germans and the Japanese would have to unconditionally surrender, a phrase borrowed from Ulysses S. Grant.

The wisdom of that declaration has been debated, principally in regard to Japan.  As a practical matter, there was no other way to approach the war against Germany at this time, and the declaration served to address Soviet fears that the Western Allies would arrive on a separate peace with Germany.  In reality, while it may not have been obvious to the Germans or the general public, the Western Allies regarded an Axis defeat at this point inevitable.   The real fear was that Stalin would arrange a separate peace with the Germans, which while it has been discounted by many historians, was in fact much more likely and not even unlikely.  Soviet military performance had been poor in 41 and most of 42, and the Soviet Union, as the then Bolshevik Russia, had in fact done just that in 1917.

Interestingly, its rarely noted that the US, and then everyone else, violated the unconditional surrender provision of the Casablanca agreements as to Japan.  The Japanese surrender, if not conditional, saw the Western Allies, for their own reasons, agree to keep the Japanese monarchy on the throne.  And it was also violated in regards to Italy, which negotiated its way out of the Axis and into the Allied powers, while dumping Mussolini, as a condition to the end of the Allied war against it.

The Allies prevailed in the Battle of Wau.

Wednesday, January 31, 1923. Hockey first.

For the first time in history, a National Hockey League match concluded with no penalties having been imposed.  The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Hamilton Tigers, 5 to 4.


Hockey, unlike football, is not boring.


Italy required public school students to start using the extended arm fascist salute, claimed to have been derived from Rome, but with little historical support for the proposition.

The general gesture was in vogue at the time, having been popularized in the United States as the Bellamy Salute.  It's co-opting by fascism, forever associated it with fascist movements.

Assistant Secretary of the Navy Theodore Roosevelt Jr., occupying the position that his father had leading up to the Spanish American War, and his cousin had during World War One,  addressed the midyear graduating class of the Peter Force School, a school he had attended during his father's occupancy of the office. The class planted a Lombardy Poplar in memory of Quentin Roosevelt, aviator, who had died in action in World War One.


The school had been founded in 1879 and was named for a former Washington, D.C. mayor.  Many children of important personages attended the school, including the late Quentin Roosevelt and Charles Taft, the son of President Taft.

The school would not have a much longer run.  It was abandoned in 1939 and demolished in 1962 in order to make way for the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

Vice Pres. Coolidge and House Speaker Gillett exercising in House gym. Jan. 31, 1923

Blog Mirror: BUT HERE'S THE THING - WE HAVE BEATEN POVERTY

Probably an unpopular opinion, but worth reading:

BUT HERE'S THE THING - WE HAVE BEATEN POVERTY

This is, moreover, probably equally true of almost all of Europe.

And something that and be considered in a U.S. context as well, although we do have poverty.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

South Korean M48s.  There are large numbers of these and M60s that are upgradable to a state sufficiently advanced to take on the Russian armor.  The Ukrainians should be given them.  I'm not the only one to suggest this.

A new year, a new thread, for new and old wars and rumors of war.

I posted the photograph above from 1986 to make a point, one that I was making I thought alone for a while, but now I've seen elsewhere.

The US has vast quantifies of mid Cold War era material that is still useful and could still go overseas to aid Ukraine.  This equipment was built to fight the Soviets, just as the junky stuff the Russians use was built to fight us.  It may not be our current standard, but it's there and if we're not going to use it now, we probably never will, unless we fear that a ground war with China is imminent and will be so bad, we'll need this stuff.

Having said that, by this point, Ukraine is well on its way toward having much more modern equipment, both in the form of latest generation Russian captured equipment, and material that NATO has supplied.

If Ukraine is going to win this war, in my view, at this point, it needs to launch a successful winter campaign and that's going to be equipment consuming.  Moreover, in order to get Russia to the negotiating table, at this point, I think they'll need to recapture all of their lost territory and enter Russia's Rostov Oblast and advance to the Don.

January 1, 2023.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin's New Year's address indicated no sign of a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, while President Zelenskyy's praised his people for their stalwart defense of their country.  There is no reason to believe that the war will end soon, or that Russia is ready to give up in spite of its battlefield defeats.  Indeed, irrespective of them, it has not exhausted its resources and, with no real democratic input into the war, Putin can afford to keep it running.

Ukraine can afford to keep it running as well, as long as the West remains in its corner.  With the U.S. Congress turning over and Republicans taking control of the House, there's some reason to believe that things will get more difficult for Ukraine.  In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has been a strong backer of Ukraine.  Ukraine lost a strong backer in Liz Cheney, and the new crop of Republicans includes many of the Trumpist isolationist strain who set the US on the road to retreat in Afghanistan.  So far, self-declared Republican Kevin McCarthy has pledged to keep backing Ukraine, but to keep a more careful eye on the assets going there, showing McCarthy's knack for spitting the baby, maybe.  For that matter, McCarthy may not be ascending to the lofty heights he's been aiming for.

Republicans barely control the House, of course, and not all Republicans are isolationist or Trumpists.

January 5, 2023.

Ukraine is claiming that Russia has sustained 10,000 combat deaths in the last two weeks, a remarkable figure if true.

Russia has deployed new ship launched missiles to the Atlantic.

Putin has declared a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas. Orthodox Christmas is on January 7.  Interestingly, in Ukraine, the country generally celebrates Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar, which of course has already occurred, with the Orthodox celebrating the religious holiday on the Julian Calendar, which this year is on January 7.  The Russian ceasefire declaration is interesting in that one of the declared purposes of the Russian invasion was to defend Orthodoxy, and the dual nature of the Ukrainian celebration somewhat demonstrates its drift to the West.  Of course, Catholic Ukrainians already celebrate the religious and civil holiday on the same day.

January 6, 2023

Kyiv rejected Putin's proposal for a truce over Orthodox Christmas.

France is sending AMX-10s to Ukraine.  Contrary to the way this tends to be reported, they are not tanks, but very heavy armored cars.  They are also a fully modern weapon, so their provision as an armored fighting vehicle is significant.

January 8, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The war has oddly begun to resemble the First World War in some ways, with localized actions that measure success in feet and yards, rather than miles.

The Russians, deploying the mercenary Wagner Group, have been struggling to take Bakhmut which some Ukrainian sources reported as surrounded yesterday.  ISW, which is highly reliable, reports that it is not.  Indeed, they reported the claim as "bizarre".

Iran

While continuing to suffer a state of near internal insurrection, Iran continues to project its power outwards.  Here's an interesting development:


January 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians claimed to hit and cause casualties on a Ukrainian training facility yesterday, in retaliation for the Ukrainian hit of a building used by Russians that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers.

This is an example of the bizarrely petulant and childish attitude that the Russians have had throughout this war, in which they complain about actions taken by their enemy that are well within the law of war.  Explaining this is difficult.

January 10, 2023

Fierce fighting is occurring between Ukrainian forces and Wagner mercenaries near Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner is promoting their role in this, but while they are in fact fighting well, for very limited objectives, they're taking massive casualties.

January 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are engaging in high level command shakeups.

There is speculation that shakeups are occurring as Putin is dissatisfied with results, as he should be, but is doubling down on his view that Ukraine can be taken by force. If this is correct, and there's good reason to believe that it is, the war is nowhere near close to being concluded and a major Russian spring offensive will be attempted.

There's also speculation that a serious struggle is going on inside Russian circles over the role of the Wagner group, which is pushing, much like the SS did during World War Two, to achieve official status as an "elite" Russian unit, rather than a mercenary group.    Not surprisingly, the Russian army doesn't like this possibility, while the Wagner Group is angling for it, in part by popularizing its ongoing bloody operations.

Regarding that, those operations appear to explain the recruiting from jails done by the mercenary organization earlier. These troops are being used like German and Soviet penal formations were in World War Two, with their purpose to sap enemy strength at the likely cost of their own lives.  Ukrainians noted earlier their high death rate and, among those captured, how many had serious diseases such as AIDS.  Their combat survivability likely is irrelevant to the Russians, as they're using up Ukrainian munitions.  This may be true to some degree of hastily deployed conscripts as well, although the Russians have to be more careful about them.

Mali

Fourteen Malian soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in two attacks in regions where Al-Qaeda aligned forces are operative.

January 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians took Soledar yesterday.

Update:

Coat of arms for Soledar

How big of a city is that?

Well, it had a population of about 10,000 before the war.  It's known for its former salt mine, which was apparently large, and there's some fear that the mine could be of use for infiltration.  Chances are that the mine is mined.

January 15, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

By Photo: Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26907562


The UK will be supplying Challenger 2 tanks, a fully modern western, third generation, main battle tank, to Ukraine.

The initial number is only 12, which isn't enough to do anything with, but presumably it will end up being more than that.  Ukraine has been asking for modern Western tanks for months.

Russian forces staged in Belarus rocketed targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast and then later launched sea-based Kalibr, and Kh-59 guided air missiles.

I wasn't aware that Belarus was allowing its territory to be used in this fashion.  This presents an added complication for Ukraine as while it now hits Russian targets in Russia, Russia is also using Belorussian territory for missile attacks.

January 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It's now widely expected that Russia will be launching a new large-scale conventional offensive.

This means that a type of race is now on, with the obvious one being can the Western nations sufficiently arm and train Ukraine to stave off a new Russian offensive which it must be presumed will be very large and much less inept than the original one, which Russia launched believing that its efforts couldn't fail.

Russia can't afford to lose the next one.

The second race, maybe, might be for Ukraine to launch an offensive first.  If Russia has to commit to the defense before it can launch an offensive, it might hold that offensive off and cause an already damaged Putin administration more trouble.

January 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Germany, having moved up, again, to the brink of allowing nations with surplus Leopard 2 tanks, or making use of its own surplus, has pulled back again.

Time and time again, Germany has indicated that it was considering or about to provide or allow Leopard 2s to go to Ukraine, only to back out.  This seems to have occurred again, as it's now indicating that it will provide Leopard 2s if the US provides M1 Abrams tanks.

There is a certain logic to this, but it's also done knowing that the US is unlikely to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  Symbolically, it's probably a bridge too far for the US as the Abrams is generally regarded as the most advanced tank in the world and one that was designed to take on and defeat Soviet armor in a largescale war.  In other worlds, it comes a bit too close to the US nearly being in the war itself, and Germany knows this.

Having said this, Leopard 2s were built for the same purpose.  And so were Challenger 2s, the latter of which is probably every bit as good as the Abrams.

The Leopard 2 isn't, which presents its own problems.  There's been some speculation that Germany hasn't provided the tank as it will show that Germany's think skinned armor thesis which influenced German tank designs post World War Two was wrong, because it was wrong.  In combat with Russian tanks it may well prove to be inferior, in least in terms of crew protection.  

This does bring up, again, the M60s (and maybe M48s).  The last variant of the M60 was a very modern tanks and it would be relatively easy to upgrade the massive number of M60s and supply them to Ukraine.  A counter proposal could be made to supply something like 500 M60s if the Germans spring the Leopard 2s.  Of course, this isn't what Ukraine is seeking, as they want the most modern variant of main battle tank.

January 21, 2023

Russia has installed air defense systems in Moscow.

Ukraine is not going to attack Moscow, so the question is whether this is a species of extreme cautiousness, paranoia, or theater.

January 23, 2023

Leopard 2 tank.

Under a tremendous amount of pressure, Germany has indicated it will not preclude Poland from shipping Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

Over the weekend a member of Congress urged the U.S. to supply M1 Abrams to Ukraine, stating that modern armor would be necessary to take on an anticipated Russian offensive this winter. This may indicate a move towards supplying Ukraine with M1s.

M1 Abrams.

January 24, 2023

From the New York Times:

The U.S. plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, officials said, a big step in arming Kyiv in its efforts to seize back territory from Russia.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023 5:40 PM ET

The White House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. One official said the number of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50.

Janaury 25, 2023

The dam appears to have broken and now Germany will be sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine.  Poland will follow.

Western analysits attribute the slow provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine as a major factor that is keeping Ukraine from defeating Russia.

We seem to have reached a new point in the war.  Now, that has changed.

January 26, 2023

Thirty one.

That's the number of M1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. promised to Ukraine.  Only around 14 Leopard 2s are going to be sent by Germany, and 80 by other European allies.  The British are sending 12 Challengers.

Ukraine asked for 300 modern main battle tanks.

A combined total of a little under 140 won't cut it, particularly of mixed models, and the M1s won't be delivered for months, most likely well after the anticipated Russian spring offensive.


We have thousands of idle M60s that can upgraded. We could likely provide over 300 M60A3s within weeks, some within days.

Send the M60s.

There are reports that the Wagner Group may take punitive action against its own members for retreating in battle, with at least one report that they castrated a soldier for doing so.

January 26, 2023, cont

The US indicated today that it does not have the spare inventory to send M1A2 from its own stocks, so apparently the Ukrainian ones will be new General Dynamics production.

Ukraine may not have the time to spare.

We should; 1) take 50 out of our own stocks. We're not going to be going to war, no matter how cautious we may feel we need to be, and 2) we should send 500 M60s.

The M60s could be there soon.

January 27, 2023

Somalia

Al Shabaab achieved a major tactical victory in central Somalia, taking a base used by US-trained special forces. 

Also in the country, U.S. Special forces killed ISIL leader Bilal al Sudani in a raid.

January 27, 2023, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a statement that can only charitably be referred to as bizarre, former President Donald Trump tweeted, or whatever it is called on "Truth Social" that if he were President he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A Russian spokesman, taking the position that he could "instruct" Kyiv on what to do, endorsed the statement. 

I think it can be safely assumed that Trump would not have intervened to save Ukraine, and would not now.  He clearly cannot "instruct" it to do anything.

Statements like this should cause people to wonder about the level of narcissism the former President displays and cannot help, at least in some quarters, cause speculation on why Trump is so in love with Putin.  It is, truly, bizarre.

January 29, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians reported took 5,000 combat deaths last week.

At this point, it appears that they're relieving the Wagner Group, which has been engaged at Bakhmut in high casualty attacks.  Russian airborne is apparently replacing the mercenary troops.

Ukrainian sources report that 300 Wagner Group wounded were taken to a hospital in Yuvlineyvy but they were refused treatment due to having AIDs, syphilis, tuberculosis and pneumonia.    Of the 50,000 Wagner recruits from prisons, only 10,000 now remain, the rest having been killed, wounded or deserted.  Just a couple of weeks ago there was serious speculation that the Wagner Group would supplant the Army in some fashion, much like the SA tried to do with the pre-war German Heer, but now it appears it's basically being pulled from combat, although it may have served its purpose by being a sponge for Ukrainian munitions.

The Russians have been making small gains.

Ukraine has asked for long range missiles, which would clearly express an intent to hit targets inside of Russia.

North Korea declared the US promise to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine an "unethical crime", which begs the question of what an "ethical" crime would be.

January 29, cont:

Iran

Iranian drone manufacturing facilities were hit. . . by drones.

Nobody has taken responsibility but it seems certain they were Israel carried out the attacks.  Iran is claiming there was no damage which means there was damage.

Ukraine did a little gloating over this, which is merited.

January 31, 2023

Pakistan

A sucide bombing killeed 59 people, mostly police officers, in Peshwar.  It was not immediately apparent who was responsible. The Taliban claimed responsiblity at first, and then denied responsibility.

Israel-Iran

Israel hit Iranian backed militia targets in Syria on January 29 and 30 in air strikes.

Last Prior Edition:

Bradley A2 Switchology and Fire Control System

Monday, January 30, 2023

Tuesday, January 30, 1973. The return of PFC Ronald L. Ridgeway.

The Defense Department discovered that a North Vietnamese provided list of 555 POWs included Marine PFC Ronald L. Ridgeway of Houston, who had been listed as Killed In Action.  He would be promoted to Sergeant and medically discharged in November 1973.

His girlfriend, Lawanda Taylor, had not married since his disappearance in 1968, and they would subsequently marry.  He would go to work in the Veterans Administration.

Chae Myung-shin (채명신,; 蔡命新), commander of South Korean forces in South Vietnam.  He had served in the Imperial Japanese Army as a conscript late in World War Two, and then escaped to South Korean to avoid the Communists.   A Korean Protestant Christian from a Christian family, he died in 2013 at age 88.

On the same day, the first 125 of 37,000 South Korean troops in Vietnam left the country. The South Korean Army retained a large presence in South Vietnam right up into 1973 and had to be pressured by the US to leave, although the US also considered leaving South Korean troops in the country into 1974 given the slow progress of the ARVN in the regions the Korean troops were located.  By 1973, South Korean troops constituted the vast majority of foreign combat troops in South Vietnam

Senator John C. Stennis was shot and wounded in front of his Washington, D. C. home in a robbery attempt.

The rock band Wicked Lester rebranded itself and performed for the first time as KISS.

Saturday, January 30, 1943. Paulus promoted and then ordered to die, Dönitz just promoted, Berlin bombed, Milice formed, Japanese withdraw.

Paulus was promoted to the rank of Field Marshall and ordered to fight to the death.

Karl Dönitz was promoted Commander of the German Navy.

De Havilland  Mosquito. The multirole aircraft was the fastest combat aircraft in the world at the time of its introduction in 1941.

The RAF bombed Berlin in a rare daylight raid timed to disrupt commemorative speeches marking the tenth anniversary of Hitler becoming Chancellor, hitting Berlin with Mosquitos at 11:00 and 4:00. 

The Vichy French formed the Milice Française, a right wing militia that served as a fascist paramilitary police.  Over 25,000 Frenchmen would join the organization.


In contrast, around 500,000 French participated in the Resistance in one form or another, and this of course does not count those who served in the Free French forces, which started off at 100,000 or so men and became around 300,000.

The Cross of Lorraine, which was DeGaulle's chosen symbol for the French Resistance.

The formation of the Milice, along with the German actions of this day, demonstrated an Axis doubling down on things even as their defeat in Europe was becoming increasingly obvious.

The Japanese forced a U.S. withdrawal in the Battle of Rennell Island, thereby protecting their evacuation of Guadalcanal.

Tuesday, January 30, 1923. Forced Relocation of Greeks and Turks

The treaty between Greece and Turkey which resulted in the forcible relocation more than 1.6 million people based on ethnicity and religion, 1,221,489 Turkish-born Greek Orthodox Christians and 400,000 Greek residents of Istanbul and Muslim Turks on the Greek side of the divided area of Thrace, were exempt, although many people relocated anyway.

The treaty was the first of the massive ethnic and religion based movements of peoples that would become a feature of the mid 20th Century, and which were a perversion of one of Wilson's Fourteen Points.  By the end of, and following, World War Two this would be conducted on a massive scale, particularly in Eastern Europe.

All of the imperial powers that had gone into World War One were multiethnic, at least to some degree.  The Germans, for example, had a large Polish population that was not only in what we'd regard as Poland, but also in areas which had a mixed Polish/German, population, and populations of ethnic Germans were present in Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania, the USSR,and elsewhere.  In what became Poland after World War One, there remained populations of Ukrainians and other peoples, and Ukraine also included populations of Poles.  Ukrainians extended out into what was then and now regarded as Russia.  Finns remained in areas that Russia retained.  And what was left to Turkey of the Ottoman Empire included not only Turks, but Armenians, Greeks and Kurds.  The concept that all nations had to be nation states, a perversion of nations getting states as envisioned by Wilson, was a direct cause of World War Two. 

Exiled Kaiser Wilhelm II visited with monarchist Germans in Nijmegen about a possible return to the German throne, but decided the time was not ripe.  It never would be.

Department of Agriculture Poultry Club.

Courthouses of the West: Oklahoma County Courthouse, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Courthouses of the West: Oklahoma County Courthouse, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Oklahoma County Courthouse, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.


This impressive art deco courthouse was built in 1937 and serves Oklahoma County, Oklahoma.  Apparently it was loosely inspired by Mayan temples, which is unusual.

It was a Great Depression works project.

The United States Supreme Court Achieves Record Slowness

No opinions have been released for three months, which is a modern record.

Why?  Who knows, but tension amongst the justices perhaps, or perhaps the repeated unwarranted attacks on this Court actually applying the law to correct the past political actions of earlier courts.

M60A3 TTS Switchology, and a little M1A2.

Sunday, January 29, 2023

The Introvert's Lament. That awkward conversation.

Lawyers tend to discuss a lot of topics, and many vigorously.

"Lonesome Charley" Reynolds.  Son of a physician, Reynolds was such a loner that he ended up with a solitary name in an occupation that involved solitude, that of U.S. Army scout.  His days ended at Little Big Horn.  Prior to being a scout, he'd occupied a variety of occupations, including that of buffalo hunter.  His visage has appeared here before.

These include some of the topics you aren't supposed to discuss, notably religion and politics, although I don't know that you really aren't supposed to discuss them.

When they are discussed, however, they need to be discussed in some intelligent context.  I'm not afraid of discussing them, and as over the three decades of legal practice I know have I've worked with one individual who made it a minor and occasional sport to attack Christianity in general and Catholicism in particular, I've found myself having to defend my beliefs simply for walking into the break room.  On that, I'd note, that I don't like having to engage in such debates not because they're serious topics, but rather because somebody is in an ornery mood and just wants to argue, or who views arguing on such matters as sport.

I note, on that, in recent years this has happened less and less as I've been able to pretty much defeat the opposing view to the point of concession.  It's at least to the credit of the arguer that they don't go away mad, but concede.

Anyhow, this isn't about that.

People who like to comment on public speaking often note that "you should know your room".  I think extroverts, or at least highly extroverted people, don't tend to be able to "read the room".

Twice in a week I've been in the office doing what I do in the office, which isn't theology, and had a coworker who is a coreligious simply blurt out of the blue, and I do mean blurt out, his concerns over Pope Francis.

From an introverted way of thinking, it's one thing if a person is idled, i.e., there's reason to believe that I'm in a posture in which I'm not engaged in some other intellectual endeavor of a work fashion, and the setting is appropriate to bring up a religious topic.  I.e., if I'm sitting in the break room alone, or if I'm in my office on an off hour looking at pictures of naked elk, or sporting goods equipment that I don't need but what like to have.  For one thing, if approached in such a fashion, on a topic that's sort of inside baseball, that's a different deal.

Indeed, the same coworker likes to go to the fellow who has an office near me and blurt out stuff about the Minnesota Vikings and Greenbay Packers, which is fine as they both have an interest in football and football is a monstrous triviality.  The fact that I'm a conscripted third participant in some boring discussion about a boring sport is irrelevant, as my opinion on the terminal dullness of football is not going to be impacted on this, let alone am I go to form an opinion about either team.

And that gets back to part of being an introvert.  We have next to no "casual conversations".  

It's not that we do not enjoy conversing, we do, but everything we're saying is some sort of analysis.  That isn't true for extroverts.  Extroverts often talk just for entertainment, the same way that some people pick up Cheez-Its from a bowl.  "Hmm. . . I'm bored. . . Oh! Cheez-Its!"

"Hmm. . .I'm bored, I don't want another Jesuit Pope again, ever!"

And here's the problem.

To an introvert, it's not only the statement made that now needs to be rapidly analyzed and responded to, but the audience does.

It's one thing if there's no audience.  Then, bare minimum, you'd be entitled to say "oh, why do you feel that way?" and go from there.

But if there is, and in an office there is, you know have somebody blurting out a personal opinion on a deeply religious matter that's going to be taken in analyzed, and filed away in some fashion by the listeners, the same way I would if somebody blurted out, "Russell Nelson is the worst Mormon Prophet of all time!" (which I've never heard anyone say, by the say, it's just an example).  Whatever the merits and demerits of the person might be, to outsiders with no context it's going to be filed away in some fashion, and probably not in a really helpful way.

Put another way, I don't think the Protestant background listeners were probably too concerned about Papal Cardinal appointments and whether they are too liberal, or if Jesuits make for poor Popes.  All of those topics are current ones in the Catholic and Apostolic Christian world, but they require intelligent discussion and a receptive or at least interested audience to be properly developed.

Or, as Jimmy Akin has noted, don't turn people off by arguing badly, and as the podcasters on Catholic Stuff You Should Know have noted, "don't be weird".

By the same token, I really don't think that minorities find it amusing to have somebody try to be amusing with their ethnicity.

I note this as I also find myself occasionally interacting with somebody who has a very, very nice Mexican woman working for them.  By Mexican, I mean Mexican. She's from Mexico. This individual finds it funny to refer to himself as Alejandro and affect a fake Mexican accent.

I don't like to be on the receiving end of such efforts at humor, and maybe I take it more poorly than she does, but that's just wrong.  I ran into this again the other day, and while I'm generally slow to react to these things, as I don't expect it, it made me mad, and I'm still mad.  I guess I'm now primed, as I'm an introvert and I don't have any idle conversations, but I'm at the point that when it happens again I'm going to say something.

Words have consequences, and quite often, they have consequences for somebody who is simply listening.

Prior Related Threads:

The Introverts Lament. "I'd like you to meet. . . "


We aren't all nice.

On that day, over the course of a few hours, three different times — three times — school administration was warned by concerned teachers and employees that the boy had a gun on him at the school and was threatening people. But the administration could not be bothered,” Toscano said.

News report on the Newport News shooter, age 6.

Also, it's been reported that the boy in question was fairly profoundly mentally disabled, and his parents had to go to school with him.

And hence we have the twin forks of part of a problem that has little to do with technology, and everything to do with an enfeebled American concept governing everything, which is that "it's nice to be nice to the nice, and everyone is nice".

We live in a fallen world and not everyone is okay.

Not by a long measure.

Cruel fate has provided that some are unable to rise to a potential, as their potential has been deprived from them at the onset.  Others will descend into that.  And yet, at the school level, we'd rather pretend that the profoundly disabled can "be just like everyone else" if we shove them in with everyone else, something that serves to depress everyone else's opportunities at the cost of attempting to rise up one person whom will not be able to, which may serve only to agitate them.

And because we do that, we have fatigue setting in, where we chose not to pay attention to signs, as the cost of paying attention to them is to be berated and subject to public scorn, or worse.

Related Threads:

Peculiarized violence and American society. Looking at root causes, and not instrumentalities.


You Heard It Here First: Peculiarized violence and American society. It Wasn't The Guns That Changed, We Changed (a post that does and doesn't go where you think it is)

Friday January 29, 1943. Japanese assaults, German conscription.

The Deutsches Nachrichtenbüro broadcast on German radio that all men from 16 to 65 years of age and all women from 17 to 45 years of age were to be conscripted for labor.  

Adolf Hitler had been Chancellor for nine years and 364 days. 1

The Battle of Rennell Island saw the Japanese commit significant air assets against the U.S. Navy in an effort to protect the Japanese withdrawal from Guadalcanal.  The heavy cruiser USS Chicago was sunk in the action.


The Battle of Wau also began on New Guinea where the Japanese outflanked the Allies to land at Lae and advance on the Australian base at Wau.


The Marine Corps Women's Reserve was created.


Monday, January 29, 1923. Colorado Rangers disbanded.

Governor William E. Sweet of Colorado defunded the Colorado Rangers.  

The move was made to thwart Prohibition enforcement, even though Colorado had adopted prohibition (like marijuana prohibition) before the Federal Government had, as well as to prevent its use in mine disputes.  They were officially disbanded in 1927, but thereafter became a reserve police force for Colorado.

Sweet was a Democrat from Chicago who came to Colorado with his parents as a small child.  He was a investment banker by profession, and good at it.  He retired from the occupation before entering politics in 1922 at age 54.  As governor, he was a strong opponent of the Klu Klux Klan, which was strong in Colorado, and which he attributed his subsequent defeat in a reelection bid in 1925.  He later moved to the second variant of the Progressive Party, the one that was formed by Robert LaFollette.

He died in 1942 at age 73.

Of note, my grandmother and grandfather, on my father's side, were married and living in Denver, Colorado at this time.  My grandmother, of Irish extraction, was a lifelong Democrat.

The Colorado Rangers originally formed in 1861, modeled on the Texas Rangers.

To the north of this story:

1923  Casper's legislative delegation proposed moving the capital to Casper from Cheyenne.  Wyoming State Historical Association.

This was still an idea that was threatened, from time to time, when I was a kid.

Edward Terry Sanford was confirmed as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court.

Mustafa Kemal Pasha, Ataturk, married Latife Uşaki.  The marriage lasted only until 1925, although it did see her active in the emancipation of Turkish women.  She lived in Istanbul after their divorce, dying in 1975.

Senate Carpentry Shop, January 29, 1923.

Heidi Brühl 1966 - Hundert Mann und ein Befehl


This is a surprise.  I wouldn't have expected a German rendition, sort of, of this tune:


The theme isn't the same.  Hundert Mann und ein Befehl is more about the futility of war.  I.e, more of a post World War Two West German sort of thing.


Heidi Brühl, for those who might not recall her, was the disloyal mountain climber's wife in The Eiger Sanction.

Abrams Switchology and Fire Control System

Blog Mirror: 834: The Boys Are Stupid

 

834: The Boys Are Stupid

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Best Posts of the Week of January 22, 2023

The best posts of the week of January 22, 2023.

Year of





Missing.






Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLIII. Doomsday? Me'h.

The doomsday clock gets a big yawn.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientist moved the hands on their doomsday clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90s seconds.

The globe yawned.

The doomsday clock dates back to 1947, when the bulletin, not without good reason, began to worry, originally, that the United States and the Soviet Union were going to blow the world to smithereens with atomic weapons.  Originally, in 47, when the US had most of the globe's atomic weapons, it was put at seven minutes to midnight, i.e., complete oblivion.


Since that time, it's been set up and down, with the end of the Cold War setting it way back.

It's still mostly based on the threat of nuclear war, but at some point they began to include other threats, such as climate change.  

This year they moved the hands up to 90 seconds, mostly based on the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, which poses next to no threat of going nuclear whatsoever.Other factors are in there, but that was the biggie.

M'eh.

When I was a kid in the 70s, when the hand was much further back on the clock, this was terrifying and people took it fairly seriously. They no longer do, and with good reason.  We were probably closest to a real nuclear exchange in the 1950s, when the hand was moved up, and throughout the 1960s.  The closest we ever came to a nuclear war was during the Cuban missile crisis, when a Soviet submarine commander and an underling got into an argument about launching their nuclear torpedoes and then violated protocol by surfacing and asking for instructions.  Had they followed their standing orders, they would have nuked local vessels of the U.S. Navy.

Indeed, while we're no fans of the Soviet military, at least three times during the Cold War the Soviets held off on nuclear launches in spite of having reasonable beliefs that war was about to commences. That's really to their credit.

I don't mean to make light of our current problems, but the problem with this is that a lot of things have actually improved since 1947, and being this close to oblivion again and again isn't really credible, and nobody is listening to this anymore.  Indeed, the best reaction was that of the Babylon Bee which had a headline that millions had died as they inadvertently set their clocks ahead to daylight savings time.

The Bulletin may want to reconsider how they approach this.

Speaking of things hard to take seriously:

Carlson insults Canadians specifically and everyone else's intelligence.

Tucker Carlson: “We're spending all this money to liberate Ukraine from the Russians, why are we not sending an armed force north to liberate Canada from Trudeau? And, I mean it.”

I don'tat know how much Carlson actually means in regard to anything he says.  He's basically a populist circus clown.

But why do people watch him?

Speaking of clowns

Donald Trump, as we reported in our running thread on wars, claims he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, which the Russians then endorsed.

I continue to fall into that category of observer who keeps wondering what it is about Trump and Putin. There's something there, but what?

Putin, no matter what else a person might say about him, is extremely intelligent.  Trump?  Some have claimed that, but the evidence isn't there. Given his age, it's impossible not to wonder about mental decline.  He may in fact have been a brilliant man at one time, although I'm not saying he was, and have descended into minor imbecility at this point. It's interesting that the same class that routinely accuses Biden of this doesn't see that in Trump.

Yale historian Timothy Snyder, the author of Bloodlands, which I am presently reading, is convinced that something is there.  I'll note that while I'm reading Bloodlands and impressed with it, I don't know that I'm convinced by what seems to be his central thesis, so I'm not claiming to be a Snyder fan.  Snyder has drawn criticism as he's gone from historian to commentator, but then that's common as well.  I can't help but note that it'd be interesting to get Snyder and Victor David Hanson in the same room, as their views on Trump are so different.

Snyder just published an item on his blog that starts off with this:
We are on the edge of a spy scandal with major implications for how we understand the Trump administration, our national security, and ourselves.

On 23 January, we learned that a former FBI special agent, Charles McGonigal, was arrested on charges involving taking money to serve foreign interests.  One accusation is that in 2017 he took $225,000 from a foreign actor while in charge of counterintelligence at the FBI's New York office.  Another charge is that McGonigal took money from Oleg Deripaska, a sanctioned Russian oligarch, after McGonigal’s 2018 retirement from the FBI.  Deripaska, a hugely wealthy metals tycoon close to the Kremlin, "Putin's favorite industrialist," was a figure in a Russian influence operation that McGonigal had investigated in 2016.  Deripaska has been under American sanctions since 2018.  Deripaska is also the former employer, and the creditor, of Trump's 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

That's interesting, but it doesn't prove anything, maybe. 

But it also might support the thesis that Trump is closer to the Russian orbit, probably due to weaknesses in his character, than his fans are willing to concede in any fashion.

What we should all concede is this.  Trump's 2016 campaign really was supported by the Russians.  No, they weren't giving him cash, but they were doing what they could, and effectively, to get him elected.

At the time the claim, for those who care to remember that it was widely known it was occurring, was that they simply wanted to undermine faith in democracy.  If that was the goal, they were enormously successful at it.  Some have claimed, however, that they feared having Hilary Clinton in office and preferred a Boofador as President.

Others, however, have asserted they wanted their man in the Oval Office.  And it's certainly possible.  Trump had long connections with Russia.  Maybe they had something on him.  Or maybe they'd just played to his vanities so as to make him an unwitting asset.

There's certainly a Russian history for both.  The Soviets were enormously successful in recruiting Western agents to their cause in all sorts of ways. Some people became spies or unwitting spies simply due to their intellectual allegiance, but others through being trapped in honey pots, or through being members of isolated disliked groups, such as well-educated British homosexual intellectuals.  Trump can't be accused of being an intellectual, but he certainly has his personal faults.

One of them is narcissism, and that's a trait that just doesn't suddenly develop, but which can be facilitated and groomed.  I suspect that might be it.  Narcissist tend to love their loyal fans or sycophants, and Putin might fit into that category for strategic purposes.

They certainly act like it.  As soon as Trump said he could end the war in 24 hours, they endorsed that absurdity.

But what about guys like Tucker Carlson.

This is all simply too weird not to raise questions.

The Pope says things that aren't really new, and aren't really shocking.

For years and years, one of the favorite things for the Press to do is to misreport Papal news.  Nearly anything the Pope says is shocking to the press.

By the same token, nearly everything he says is misinterpreted by Protestants, who don't grasp what the Pope's actual role is, and any more by Catholics who are looking for a reason to be mad.

The AP just interviewed Pope Francis, and he said a bunch of things that were to be expected and frankly aren't, in some instances, even all that interesting.

One is that he said homosexuality shouldn't be illegal, but homosexual conduct is sinful.

This isn't news.  This isn't even new.  More specifically, he stated:

Being homosexual is not a crime. It's not a crime. Yes, it's a sin. Well, yes, but let's make the distinction first between sin and crime

Frankly, even that is more conservative than the regular Catholic thought on this.  Most thoughtful Catholics would say that being a homosexual isn't sinful at all, but engaging in sex outside of marriage, and marriage can only occur between a man and a woman, is sinful.

Lots of stuff work like this.  For Catholics, divorce and remarriage is sinful, but nobody proposes to criminalize it. Sex outside of marriage is sinful, but Catholics aren't proposing to re-criminalize it.  You get the point. 

The Pope also lamented on the resort to firearms for self-protection, going beyond that and becoming habitual with people. Frankly, that is a real risk and we see it going on here.  It used to be the case in Wyoming that you had the common law defenses on the use of force, but then the legislature saw fit to codify it, and now its expanded to the point where if I declare myself threatened while car camping I can gun somebody down.  The current state legislature has a bunch of bills right now that would pretty much make Tom Horn thing we'd gone nuts in this area.

Pope Francis lamented that the use of guns by civilians to defend themselves is becoming a “habit.”

What the Pope actually said was:

I say when you have to defend yourself, all that’s left is to have the elements to defend yourself. Another thing is how that need to defend oneself lengthens, lengthens, and becomes a habit. Instead of making the effort to help us live, we make the effort to help us kill.

Based on the current state of the law and legislature, I'd have to say that's right. 

Bristol Palin's self mutilation

Bristol Palin has been on Twitter complaining about the after effects of her self mutilation.  She stated:

Sharing wayyyyy tmi right now, but had my 9th breast reconstruction surgery last night – yes, NINTH all stemming from a botched breast reduction I had when I was 19 y/o,I’ve had previous surgeries trying to correct that initial damage of muscle tissue and terrible scaring. The whole situation has honestly made me very self-conscious my entire adult life. Praying that this is the last surgery needed.

Well, the first ones weren't needed.

I know very little about Bristol Palin other than that she's Sarah Palin's daughter and was in the news for a while for having a child while an underage (17) teen.  She later married the father and they later divorced.  I really don't particularly care about any of that.

At any rate, we now know that she had breast reduction surgery when she was 19.

Breast reduction surgery is the one breast related plastic surgery not involving cancer or injury that can make sense, as some women are so large in this area its painful.  Maybe that was the case here.  I don't recall her appearance that well, as I'm not a Palin fan, but I don't recall people routinely stating that she was gigantic.  At any rate, the real cautionary tale here is just leave the mammaries alone unless there's a real medical necessity to do something.

That, moreover, goes for anything.  Don't remove them for sport or transitory belief of "transitioning", and don't enhance them because you think they are too small.  These things are the size they're supposed to be.  Leave them alone.

Youthful mistakes

You'll note that I'm not criticizing Palin for her youthful motherhood, although that certainly isn't an ideal start in life.  Teenage pregnancy followed by teenage breast reduction shows a whole string of bad decisions at work.

I note that as the Democrats in Congress have proposed a bill to reduce the voting age to 16.

We all know that's going nowhere, but as recent science has confirmed what the founders of the republic originally thought, that you really ought not to be making adult decisions until your early 20s, this is not only an idea whose time hasn't come.  It's one whose time shouldn't come.