Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 9. Sudden collapse edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

British troops entering Damascus, October, 1918.

I am Syrian, I was made in Syria, I have to live in Syria and die in Syria. 

Bashar al-Assad

It is no exaggeration to say that Syria holds the key for nearly all of America's foreign policy goals in the Middle East. As Syria goes, so goes the region. 

Reza Aslan

From Syria even to Rome I fight with wild beasts, by land and sea, by night and by day, being bound amidst ten leopards, even a company of soldiers, who only grow worse when they are kindly treated.

Ignatius of Antioch

December 8, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Damascus and Assad has fled.  The Syrian army is still fighting in some places, but has declared it is not under Assad.

Syrian rebels have attacked Kurdish forces in the north of the country.

cont:

It appears that the Russian manufactured airplane carrying Assad and his family out of the country was shot down near the Lebanese border.  Or at least that's the rumor.

December 9, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Assad fled to Moscow and has received asylum.

Israel has seized positions in the Golan Heights outside of those it normally occupies.

cont:

Israel has occupied Mt. Hermon, Syria's highest peak, which puts Damascus within range of Israeli artillery.

December 11, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The US has been hitting ISIL targets in Syria since the fall of Assad.  Israel has been hitting Syrian Army supplies.  Turkey hit the Kurds with a drone strike.

December 13, 2024

Pope Francis.

Forgive us our trespasses: grant us your peace

I. Listening to the plea of an endangered humanity

1. At the dawn of this New Year given to us by our heavenly Father, a year of Jubilee in the spirit of hope, I offer heartfelt good wishes of peace to every man and woman. I think especially of those who feel downtrodden, burdened by their past mistakes, oppressed by the judgment of others and incapable of perceiving even a glimmer of hope for their own lives. Upon everyone I invoke hope and peace, for this is a Year of Grace born of the Heart of the Redeemer!

2. Throughout this year, the Catholic Church celebrates the Jubilee, an event that fills hearts with hope. The “jubilee” recalls an ancient Jewish practice, when, every forty-ninth year, the sound of a ram’s horn (in Hebrew, jobel) would proclaim a year of forgiveness and freedom for the entire people (cf. Lev 25:10). This solemn proclamation was meant to echo throughout the land (cf. Lev 25:9) and to restore God’s justice in every aspect of life: in the use of the land, in the possession of goods and in relationships with others, above all the poor and the dispossessed. The blowing of the horn reminded the entire people, rich and poor alike, that no one comes into this world doomed to oppression: all of us are brothers and sisters, sons and daughters of the same Father, born to live in freedom, in accordance with the Lord’s will (cf. Lev 25:17, 25, 43, 46, 55).

3. In our day too, the Jubilee is an event that inspires us to seek to establish the liberating justice of God in our world. In place of the ram’s horn, at the start of this Year of Grace we wish to hear the “desperate plea for help” [1] that, like the cry of the blood of Abel (cf. Gen 4:10), rises up from so many parts of our world – a plea that God never fails to hear. We for our part feel bound to cry out and denounce the many situations in which the earth is exploited and our neighbours oppressed. [2] These injustices can appear at times in the form of what Saint John Paul II called “structures of sin”, [3] that arise not only from injustice on the part of some but are also consolidated and maintained by a network of complicity.

4. Each of us must feel in some way responsible for the devastation to which the earth, our common home, has been subjected, beginning with those actions that, albeit only indirectly, fuel the conflicts that presently plague our human family. Systemic challenges, distinct yet interconnected, are thus created and together cause havoc in our world. [4] I think, in particular, of all manner of disparities, the inhuman treatment meted out to migrants, environmental decay, the confusion willfully created by disinformation, the refusal to engage in any form of dialogue and the immense resources spent on the industry of war. All these, taken together, represent a threat to the existence of humanity as a whole. At the beginning of this year, then, we desire to heed the plea of suffering humankind in order to feel called, together and as individuals, to break the bonds of injustice and to proclaim God’s justice. Sporadic acts of philanthropy are not enough. Cultural and structural changes are necessary, so that enduring change may come about. [5]

II. A cultural change: all of us are debtors

5. The celebration of the Jubilee spurs us to make a number of changes in order to confront the present state of injustice and inequality by reminding ourselves that the goods of the earth are meant not for a privileged few, but for everyone. [6] We do well to recall the words of Saint Basil of Caesarea: “Tell me, what things belong to you? Where did you find them to make them part of your life? … Did you not come forth naked from the womb of your mother? Will you not return naked to the ground? Where did your property come from? If you say that it comes to you naturally by luck, you would deny God by not recognizing the Creator and being grateful to the Giver”. [7] Without gratitude, we are unable to recognize God’s gifts. Yet in his infinite mercy the Lord does not abandon sinful humanity, but instead reaffirms his gift of life by the saving forgiveness offered to all through Jesus Christ. That is why, in teaching us the “Our Father”, Jesus told us to pray: “Forgive us our trespasses” ( Mt 6:12).

6. Once we lose sight of our relationship to the Father, we begin to cherish the illusion that our relationships with others can be governed by a logic of exploitation and oppression, where might makes right. [8] Like the elites at the time of Jesus, who profited from the suffering of the poor, so today, in our interconnected global village, [9] the international system, unless it is inspired by a spirit of solidarity and interdependence, gives rise to injustices, aggravated by corruption, which leave the poorer countries trapped. A mentality that exploits the indebted can serve as a shorthand description of the present “debt crisis” that weighs upon a number of countries, above all in the global South.

7. I have repeatedly stated that foreign debt has become a means of control whereby certain governments and private financial institutions of the richer countries unscrupulously and indiscriminately exploit the human and natural resources of poorer countries, simply to satisfy the demands of their own markets. [10] In addition, different peoples, already burdened by international debt, find themselves also forced to bear the burden of the “ecological debt” incurred by the more developed countries. [11] Foreign debt and ecological debt are two sides of the same coin, namely the mindset of exploitation that has culminated in the debt crisis. [12] In the spirit of this Jubilee Year, I urge the international community to work towards forgiving foreign debt in recognition of the ecological debt existing between the North and the South of this world. This is an appeal for solidarity, but above all for justice. [13]

8. The cultural and structural change needed to surmount this crisis will come about when we finally recognize that we are all sons and daughters of the one Father, that we are all in his debt but also that we need one another, in a spirit of shared and diversified responsibility. We will be able to “rediscover once for all that we need one another” and are indebted one to another. [14]

III. A journey of hope: three proposals

9. If we take to heart these much-needed changes, the Jubilee Year of Grace can serve to set each of us on a renewed journey of hope, born of the experience of God’s unlimited mercy. [15]

God owes nothing to anyone, yet he constantly bestows his grace and mercy upon all. As Isaac of Nineveh, a seventh-century Father of the Eastern Church, put it in one of his prayers: “Your love, Lord, is greater than my trespasses. The waves of the sea are nothing with respect to the multitude of my sins, but placed on a scale and weighed against your love, they vanish like a speck of dust”. [16] God does not weigh up the evils we commit; rather, he is immensely “rich in mercy, for the great love with which he loved us” ( Eph 2:4). Yet he also hears the plea of the poor and the cry of the earth. We would do well simply to stop for a moment, at the beginning of this year, to think of the mercy with which he constantly forgives our sins and forgives our every debt, so that our hearts may overflow with hope and peace.

10. In teaching us to pray the “Our Father”, Jesus begins by asking the Father to forgive our trespasses, but passes immediately to the challenging words: “as we forgive those who trespass against us” (cf. Mt 6:12). In order to forgive others their trespasses and to offer them hope, we need for our own lives to be filled with that same hope, the fruit of our experience of God’s mercy. Hope overflows in generosity; it is free of calculation, makes no hidden demands, is unconcerned with gain, but aims at one thing alone: to raise up those who have fallen, to heal hearts that are broken and to set us free from every kind of bondage.

11. Consequently, at the beginning of this Year of Grace, I would like to offer three proposals capable of restoring dignity to the lives of entire peoples and enabling them to set them out anew on the journey of hope. In this way, the debt crisis can be overcome and all of us can once more realize that we are debtors whose debts have been forgiven.

First, I renew the appeal launched by Saint John Paul II on the occasion of the Great Jubilee of the Year 2000 to consider “reducing substantially, if not cancelling outright, the international debt which seriously threatens the future of many nations”. [17] In recognition of their ecological debt, the more prosperous countries ought to feel called to do everything possible to forgive the debts of those countries that are in no condition to repay the amount they owe. Naturally, lest this prove merely an isolated act of charity that simply reboots the vicious cycle of financing and indebtedness, a new financial framework must be devised, leading to the creation of a global financial Charter based on solidarity and harmony between peoples.

I also ask for a firm commitment to respect for the dignity of human life from conception to natural death, so that each person can cherish his or her own life and all may look with hope to a future of prosperity and happiness for themselves and for their children. Without hope for the future, it becomes hard for the young to look forward to bringing new lives into the world. Here I would like once more to propose a concrete gesture that can help foster the culture of life, namely the elimination of the death penalty in all nations. This penalty not only compromises the inviolability of life but eliminates every human hope of forgiveness and rehabilitation. [18]

In addition, following in the footsteps of Saint Paul VI and Benedict XVI, [19] I do not hesitate to make yet another appeal, for the sake of future generations. In this time marked by wars, let us use at least a fixed percentage of the money earmarked for armaments to establish a global Fund to eradicate hunger and facilitate in the poorer countries educational activities aimed at promoting sustainable development and combating climate change. [20] We need to work at eliminating every pretext that encourages young people to regard their future as hopeless or dominated by the thirst to avenge the blood of their dear ones. The future is a gift meant to enable us to go beyond past failures and to pave new paths of peace.

IV. The goal of peace

12. Those who take up these proposals and set out on the journey of hope will surely glimpse the dawn of the greatly desired goal of peace. The Psalmist promises us that “steadfast love and faithfulness will meet; righteousness and peace will kiss” ( Ps 85:10). When I divest myself of the weapon of credit and restore the path of hope to one of my brothers or sisters, I contribute to the restoration of God’s justice on this earth and, with that person, I advance towards the goal of peace. As Saint John XXIII observed, true peace can be born only from a heart “disarmed” of anxiety and the fear of war. [21]

13. May 2025 be a year in which peace flourishes! A true and lasting peace that goes beyond quibbling over the details of agreements and human compromises. [22] May we seek the true peace that is granted by God to hearts disarmed: hearts not set on calculating what is mine and what is yours; hearts that turn selfishness into readiness to reach out to others; hearts that see themselves as indebted to God and thus prepared to forgive the debts that oppress others; hearts that replace anxiety about the future with the hope that every individual can be a resource for the building of a better world.

14. Disarming hearts is a job for everyone, great and small, rich and poor alike. At times, something quite simple will do, such as “a smile, a small gesture of friendship, a kind look, a ready ear, a good deed”. [23] With such gestures, we progress towards the goal of peace. We will arrive all the more quickly if, in the course of journeying alongside our brothers and sisters, we discover that we have changed from the time we first set out. Peace does not only come with the end of wars but with the dawn of a new world, a world in which we realize that we are different, closer and more fraternal than we ever thought possible.

15. Lord, grant us your peace! This is my prayer to God as I now offer my cordial good wishes for the New Year to the Heads of State and Government, to the leaders of International Organizations, to the leaders of the various religions and to every person of good will.

Forgive us our trespasses, Lord,

as we forgive those who trespass against us.

In this cycle of forgiveness, grant us your peace,

the peace that you alone can give

to those who let themselves be disarmed in heart,

to those who choose in hope to forgive the debts of their brothers and sisters,

to those who are unafraid to confess their debt to you,

and to those who do not close their ears to the cry of the poor.

From the Vatican, 8 December 2024

The Kurd's in control of northern Syria have ordered the pre 1964 Syrian flag, which is used by rebel forces, flown on their territory.

December 14, 2024

South Korea

In a process that's clearly different than the American one, the President of South Korea has been stripped of his powers for declaring martial law, but remains in office until a constitutional court decides his fate.  This is the result of an impeachment, one I'd note that worked.

December 16, 2024

Poland

Poland Poland has introduced compulsory military firearms classes in all its elementary and secondary schools.

December 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian agents killed Russian Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, outside an apartment building in Moscow.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

Labels: 2020s, 2024, Hezbollah, Iran, Kursk Ukraine, Lebanon, Mercenaries, Middle Eastern War, North Korea, Russia, Russo Ukrainian War, South Korea, Trailing thread, Ukraine, War, Wars and rumors of wars

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

May 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have so far launched two limited efforts in the area, one north of Kharkiv City in the direction of Lyptsi and one northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian armored assault groups of an unspecified size attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning and that fighting continued in the area after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assaults.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces also began infantry-heavy assaults between Strilecha (north of Lyptsi) and Zelene (northeast of Lyptsi) on the night of May 9 to 10.[2] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces significantly intensified airstrikes, shelling, and MLRS strikes against Ukrainian positions, logistics, and infrastructure ahead of and during Russian offensive operations in these areas.[3]

ISW

May 12, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian troops have seized Borysivka, Ohirtseve, Pylna and Strilecha in north east Ukraine.   Russia claims to have taken Pletenivka as well, but Ukraine reports fighting in ongoing in Strilecha and Pletenivka, as well as Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi and Hatyshche. 

May 13, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced with Andrei Belousov.

Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened’

Middle Eastern War

Secretary of State Blinken made statements yesterday which were highly critical of Israel.

May 14, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary Blinkin is in Ukraine

Russia gained ground in northeaster Ukraine again yesterday.

Ukraine is deploying reservists in the area, which gets to part of the extremely odd nature of the war.  Ukraine has conscription, and has used it, but up until recently it didn't dip down to the lower 20s age bracket, and moreover almost all, or maybe all, of the troops it has deployed to the front are volunteers.

This is not true, of course, of Russia.

The US has banned imports of Russian uranium.

Middle Eastern War

Hamas conducted increased attacks in northern Gaza yesterday, demonstrating that it has the ability to reconstitute.

Cont:

China v. The West

Governor Gordon Expresses Support for Decision Blocking Chinese Bitcoin Operation From Owning Land Near FE Warren Air Force Base

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement supporting an order that prevents a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency mining firm from owning land near FE Warren Air Force base. The Governor’s statement follows:

“I am acutely aware and have been monitoring the concerns of surrounding property owners, as well as the potential threats to national security that this operation posed. I am pleased that the Administration recognized the potential threat and took steps to ensure the security of our military installations and the safety of Wyoming residents. Protection of our infrastructure remains paramount to protecting our national security and must always be our highest priority.

I am also grateful to Senator Nethercott for sponsoring SF077 -Homeland defense-infrastructure reporting and investigating to help protect Wyoming's critical infrastructure from foreign threats. I signed this bill, effective July 1, because it provides clear guidance and support to counties, under the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, to investigate land sales near critical infrastructure.” 

-END-

May 16, 2024

Middle Eastern War

The US humanitarian pier in Gaza has been completed.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian offensive northeast of Kharkiv has slowed.

May 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

The U.S. House voted to force President Biden to send arms to Israel.

May 20, 2024

Democratic Republic of the Congo.

A coup attempt was put down over the weekend.

Iran

Iranian President and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash with other members of the Iranian cabinet.

May 25, 2024

China v. Taiwan

Large-scale naval exercises by the PRC have ended.

Middle Eastern War

Egypt is allowing aid to Gaza to cross its border with the enclave.

Three US servicemen have been injured at the humanitarian pier.

Spain, Norway and Ireland said on Wednesday that they would recognize an independent Palestinian state.

May 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainians have obtained "combat control" over the areas where the Russians were recently on the offensive.

May 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, they hit but did not cause any casualties.  Israel responded with airstrikes.

June 2, 2024

Middle Eastern War

President Biden proposed an extended ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for a complete release of hostages.  The proposal is causing turmoil in Israel itself.

June 3, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Strikes on infrastructure shut down most of the power grid in Ukraine.

June 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia

The Russian military has been decimated. You don’t write about that. It’s been freaking decimated.

Joe Biden to Time magazine. 

June 6, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Message for U.S. Citizens: Elimination of “Residence Abroad” Exception to Dual Citizen Departure

Date: June 4, 2024

Location: Ukraine (countrywide)

Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv understands that, effective June 1, Ukraine has eliminated a “residence abroad” exception that previously allowed certain Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 to depart the country. After this change, U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens, including those who live in the United States, may no longer be able to depart the country.

Ukrainian law does not recognize dual citizenship. U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens are therefore treated solely as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and are subject to the rights and obligations of Ukrainian citizens. Under Ukraine’s martial law, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave the country. Previously, dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens in this group could enter and then depart Ukraine if they had deregistered their Ukrainian residency and registered their U.S. residency. According to our information, this exception was revoked as of June 1.

The U.S. Embassy is limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens. If you are in Ukraine and cannot leave the country, shelter in place and obey all local orders. If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport.

We remind all Americans of the State Department’s Level 4: Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine. For further information, see State Department websites for what you should know as a dual citizen traveler, and what we can and cannot do during a crisis.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Kyiv

+380 44 521 50 00

kyivacs@state.gov

https://ua.usembassy.gov/

State Department – Consular Affairs

+1-888-407-4747 or +1-202-501-4444

Ukraine Country Information

Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive alerts

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

Mexican Border Crisis

President Biden signed an executive order which shuts the border down once there are 2,500 encounters on the same.

June 7, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will address Congress on July 24 which is probably a phenomenally bad idea.

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the West Bank Palestinian organization the Lion's Den.

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending $225M in military aid to Ukraine through Presidential draw down authority.

June 10, 2024

Middle Eastern War

An Israeli raid freed 4 hostages, but resulted in the deaths of 274 Palestinians.

June 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian offensive in the north has failed and some ground has been retaken by the Ukrainians. 

A Ukrainian offensive in the south has retaken ground held by the Russians since the beginning of the war.

June 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A peace summit has convened in Switzerland, but as the Russians are absent, there's little chance that anything will be accomplished.

June 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The conferenced called for Ukrainian territorial integrity to be the basis for peace.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated: "Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine's terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion."

Middle Eastern War

The Israeli war cabinet has been dissolved.

Israel is pausing fighting along a humanitarian route during daytime hours.

June 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Interesting set of Russian dismissals and replacements:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024

June 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian war

The Russians are making extensive use of retrofitted "dumb bombs" converted into glide bombs. The press is treating this as a new weapon, but it is not.  Readers here will recall reading about the deployment of the Fritz X German guided glide bomb at Anzio, which was also a devastating weapon.

June 26, 2024

Haiti

Kenyon police are arriving in Haiti as police keepers.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is apparently going to send military engineers to the war in Ukraine.

June 28, 2024

Bolivia

The Bolivian government put down a coup attempt by the commander of its army, General Juan José Zúñiga.

July 4, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskiy challenged Donald Trump to release his peace plan that supposedly will end the war in a day if Trump is unfortunately reelected to the Oval Office.

Ukrainian forces have retreated from a neighborhood in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar.

Middle Eastern War

Israel annexed five square miles of the West Bank.

Such moves necessarily outrage Palestinians and others.

July 21, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Last Thursday Houthi's launched drones on Tel Aviv, which is an impressive feat.  Yesterday Israel retaliated with air strikes on port facilities in Yemen.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia launched its 5th drone attack on Kyiv in two weeks.

July 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel intercepted and destroyed a missile fired from Yemen yesterday.

July 25, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In another of a series of Russian arrests of defense officials, Andrei Belkov, the director of the Defense Ministry's Military Construction Company has been arrested.

The Russian Navy no longer has any vessels in the Sea of Azov.

A Russian drone strike accidentally hit territory in Romania.

July 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

.Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.[1] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kurakhove direction reported that Russian forces attacked simultaneously with 11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare "Terminator" armored fighting vehicle (of which Russia has reportedly manufactured only 23 as of December 2023), 12 motorcycles, and roughly 200 personnel from several tactical directions at dawn on July 24.[2] The brigade reported that Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance identified the mechanized columns from a distance and that Ukrainian forces used artillery, drones, and minefields to blunt the Russian assault. The brigade reported that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed six Russian tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, and all 12 motorcycles and that Russian forces retreated after Ukrainian forces destroyed the first wave of vehicles. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia's four-month long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.[3] Russian forces likely intended to advance further into Kostyantynivka as part of their efforts to seize the settlement and cut the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka T-0524 highway. Russian sources have long identified interdicting the T-0524 highway and disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Vuhledar as a primary tactical objective in this direction. Russian milblogger recently suggested that Russian forces would intensify operations south of Kostyantynivka in support of this objective and force Ukrainian forces to retreat from positions in and around Vuhledar.[4] Russian forces likely will not make operationally significant advances in this area of the frontline in the near term even if they achieve tactically significant advances and prompt Ukrainian forces to retreat from nearby positions, as the surrounding area has no operationally significant objectives and is largely comprised of fields and isolated, small settlements and no significant nearby tactical heights.

Middle Eastern War

Also from ISW:

US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. Dahlan is a former Fatah official who was a close advisor to former Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasser Arafat. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 25 that under the plan, Dahlan would oversee an interim security force of 2,500 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip after Israeli troops withdraw, citing Arab officials. The United States, Israel, and Egypt would vet the Palestinian personnel, who would work in coordination with unspecified international forces and even private Western security firms. 

July 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A rocket launched from Lebanese soil killed 11 children in a Druze village in the Golan Heights.  The suspect, Hezbollah, denied responsibility.

July 29, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel retaliated with strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

July 30, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli Air Force fighter jets eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s most senior military commander [Fu’ad Shukr]

Israeli announcement. 

July 31, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a raif of some sort in Iran.  He and his body guards went down after attending the swearing in of Iran's new president, showing the extent to which (probably) Israel will go to eliminate its enemies, its military capabilities, and the lack of the same on the part of Iran.

In Iraq, "U.S. forces in Iraq conducted a defensive airstrike in the Musayib in Babil Province, targeting combatants attempting to launch one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS)", according to US officials.

Mali

The Mali army and mercenary Wagner group have taken a pounding after a two day battle with Tuareg separatist rebels and al-Qaeda-linked militants.

August 3, 2024

Mexican Border Crisis

Governor Gordon Responds to Border Crisis by Providing Support to Texas

August 01, 2024

---

In response to a request for assistance from Texas, Governor Mark Gordon announced that Wyoming law-enforcement personnel will be deploying to the southern border with Mexico.

The deployment of 10 Wyoming Highway Patrol (WHP) troopers later this month is in response to an Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request from Texas Governor Greg Abbott and is being coordinated through the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security (WOHS). During the 14-day deployment, the WHP troopers will provide law enforcement and emergency assistance in support of the Texas Department of Safety. Two deputies from the Natrona County Sheriff’s Office are also planned to deploy at a later date. 

“Wyoming is committed to closing the open Biden-Harris border,” Governor Gordon said. “As part of our ongoing relationship with Texas, we will supply resources as they are requested while also making sure we are safe here at home. We are immensely grateful for the willingness of Wyoming law enforcement members and their families to assist in this important effort to help secure our southern border.”

In August 2023, Governor Gordon authorized the deployment of eight Department of Corrections and local law enforcement personnel to provide support along the southern border. Following that deployment, Texas Rangers traveled to Wyoming earlier this year to provide valuable training to Wyoming law enforcement officers. During the 2024 Legislative session, $750,000 was allocated to the Governor’s Office for expenses to assist border state law enforcement efforts.

Following a 2021 visit to the US-Mexico border, Governor Gordon signed a memorandum of understanding with 25 fellow governors in 2022 creating the American Governors’ Border Strike Force. This multi-state partnership was designed to address the negative impacts of increased illegal immigration, including a rise in the presence of illicit fentanyl in Wyoming.

Middle Eastern War

The US is reinforcing its forces in the Middle East following the Israeli bomb (it turned out to be pre planted) that killed the leader of Hamas.  Iran will feel compelled to retaliate.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine launched a largescale drone attack on Russian targets overnight.

Zelenskiy is seeking Western permission to strike Russian airfields with long range Western munitions.

August 5, 2024

Mali

In a really odd turn of events, Mali which hired Wagner Group mercenaries in its fight against Tuareg separatist, has cut diplomatic relations with Ukraine upon learning that Ukraine provided intelligence to the Tuaregs prior to the recent disastrous ambush on Wagner and Mali forces.

I doubt Ukraine cares, but if Mali has to rely upon Wagner, it should expect stuff like this.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has said the war has spread to include Iran. That's a comment, but a scary one.

August 6, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A rocket attack injured several U.S. troops at an American base in Iraq.

The 300th AFA is going to Kuwait.

Niger

The US has now completely withdrawn from Niger.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.

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Sunday, July 21, 1974. Turkish invasion of Cyprus, Israeli no, Turkish misidentification.

The day prior, July 20, 1974, the Turks invaded Cyprus in response to the July 15, 1974 move by the Greek military junta ruling the country to annex the island to Greece which had seen a coup take place on the island, replacing Archbishop Makarios III with Greek nationalist 

Greek commandos landed on the island on this day.

The USS Harwood, which later became the TCG Kocatepe.

The Turkish Air Force, in a case of mistaken identification, sank the Turkish destroyer TCG Kocatepe, and heavily damaged the Adatepe and Mareşal Fevzi Çakmak off the coast of Paphos at Cyprus.  The vessels were misidentified as Greek vessels.

The Israeli cabinet voted to turn down a proposal to begin discussions with moderate Palestinian representatives to establish an independent Palestinian nation on the West Bank in exchange for Arab recognition of Israel's right to exist.

Egypt gave exclusive oil and gas prospecting rights in the Gulf of Suez to Standard Oil and the same for the Red Sea to Mobil Oil and Union Oil.

Last edition:

Saturday, July 6, 1974. Live from Lake Wobegon.

Labels: 1970s, 1974, Comedians, Garrison Keillor, Minnesota, Music, Radio, the spoken word

Friday, May 31, 1974. The Golan Heights.

The Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria was signed in Geneva.  Artillery fire stopped at 1:15 p.m.  The United Nations Disengagement Force was created by UN Security Council Resolution 350.  Israel was left with the Golan Heights.

The British Home Office announced the end of the "bread and water" diet as a prison punishment.

Malaysia and China established diplomatic relations.

Vietnam Veterans marched from Boulder to Denver in protest over the war, which the US had of course withdrawn from, and for amnesty for draft evaders and deserters.

Last prior edition:

Monday, May 27, 1974. Memorial Day and Los Seis de Boulder.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.

John Stuart Mill

April 14, 2024.

The Middle Eastern War.

This was mentioned yesterday, but in North America we're waking up to the news that Iran, the supplier of drones to Russia, used a huge number of drones in an airborne assault on Israel yesterday which was combined with missiles.

Because that's going to serve somebody's interest?

This was retaliatory in nature, of course, but it was also monumentally stupid on the part of Iran.

Almost all the Iranian munitions were shot down.  The few that got through caused minor damage. The US participated in the airborne defense.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's defense chief warned that its battlefield situation has significantly worsened in recent days.

Mike Johnson, pick up your copy of John Stuart Mill.

April 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces destroy Russian air defense systems in Crimea

The Middle Eastern War

Israel has carried out a retaliatory air strke on Iran.  The details are sketchy at this time, but drones appear to be involved.

A big difference appears to be that Israel hit its targets, as opposed to Iran, which demonostrated an inability to get theirs through, although the US, UK and France helped Israel in its defense.

China v. US

A hacking campaign by China called Volt Typhoon has gained access to telecommunications, energy, water and 23 pipeline operators targeted, amongst other infrastrucure.

It should be obvious that China is preparing for war against the US, which will come over Taiwan.

April 19, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

Massively belatedly, the House of Representatives voted 316-94 to advance military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.  A final vote will come on Saturday, as this was procedural.

Isolationist are having a fit and will now take a run at removing Speaker Johnson, the latter having found his courage this week, at long last.

April 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

House Approves $95 Billion Aid Bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan

After months of delay at the hands of a bloc of ultraconservative Republicans, the package drew overwhelming bipartisan support, reflecting broad consensus.

About bloody time, and better late than never, assuming it's not too late.

Finally, Mike Johnson, who apparently prayed about the matter, found his courage.

April 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In listing to This Week, I learned that a majority of GOP Congressman voted against aid to Ukraine.

Shameful.

Some of the commentary on the weekend shows suggest that Speaker Johnson may have changed his mind in part because of intelligence briefings. If that's the case, we ought to be truly fearful of Russia winning the war.

MJT tried to insert an amendment into the bill which would have required all those who voted for the bill to become Ukrainian conscripts.

Middle Eastern War

Air strikes in Razah killed 22 people.

The US is imposing sanctions on the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, a unit for ultra Orthodox Jews, most of whom do not serve in the Israeli military and who are exempted from universal male conscription that the country generally imposes.

It's difficult to see how attempting to sanction a single unit would work.

April 24, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pro Palestinian demonstrations are causing havoc across campuses in the US as protesters.

Anti-Semitic elements in these protests have been very notable, including delusional ones such as LGBTQ supporting protesters supporting, effectively, Hamas, even though Hamas would likely put a 9mm to their heads if they were in Palestine.

Stay tuned to see if the Horst Wessel song reappears.

Russo Ukrainian War

The aid bill passed the Senate 79 to 18.  Wyoming's two Senators, who normally would have voted yes, voted no, so they can bow down to the Populist Party.

Iran v. Everyone

Four Iranians were arrested for a hacking scheme aimed at Federal agencies.

April 25, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine deployed M57A1 ATACMS ballistic missiles against Russian targets in Crimea.  The new missiles vastly increase Ukraine's ability to hit deep into Russian held territory.

The sudden appearance of the missiles suggest that Ukraine was supplied them prior to the recent funding bill, which was only signed into law yesterday, but withheld use of them until the bill was passed.

Russia, regarding the bill, predictably squealed like a stuck pig or like Donald Trump complaining about being on trial for his prurient interest, while it itself has used long range missiles fairly indiscriminately in Ukraine.

Pope Francis in an interview with CBS News declared that a "negotiated peace is better than a war without end", calling on warring parties in Ukraine and the Middle East to negotiate.

Of interset here, perhaps, the Vatican recently released its "Declaration of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith “Dignitas Infinita” on Human Dignity”, the same appearing on April 8.  While I've noted it elsewhere, I suspect that Catholics in particular, or at least some Catholics, have grown so weary of documents issued by Pope Francis that they're being ignored and dreaded at this point.  Indeed, many Catholics are holding their breath on what will come out of the Synod on Snyodality.  Anyhow, Dignatas Infinita, which people were holding their breath on before it came out (it had been announced that something was coming out) didn't receive very much attention from the world at large and frankly from Catholics as well, as sure sign that just too darned much is being generated by this Papacy.

What notice it drew from Catholic circles tended to focus on the concept of "infinite dignity", and what that meant.  I haven't followed the results of that, and there wasn't that much discussion of it to start with.  The Pope, however, drew a lot of flak for his statements on transgenderism, which are perfectly in line with Catholic beliefs.  We'll deal with that elsewhere.

What surprisingly didn't receive much attention was his statements on war, which were:

War

38. Another tragedy that denies human dignity, both in the past and today, is war: “War, terrorist attacks, racial or religious persecution, and many other affronts to human dignity […] ‘have become so common as to constitute a real ‘third world war’ fought piecemeal.’”[64] With its trail of destruction and suffering, war attacks human dignity in both the short and long term: “While reaffirming the inalienable right to self-defense and the responsibility to protect those whose lives are threatened, we must acknowledge that war is always a ‘defeat of humanity.’ No war is worth the tears of a mother who has seen her child mutilated or killed; no war is worth the loss of the life of even one human being, a sacred being created in the image and likeness of the Creator; no war is worth the poisoning of our common home; and no war is worth the despair of those who are forced to leave their homeland and are deprived, from one moment to the next, of their home and all the family, friendship, social and cultural ties that have been built up, sometimes over generations.”[65] All wars, by the mere fact that they contradict human dignity, are “conflicts that will not solve problems but only increase them.”[66] This point is even more critical in our time when it has become commonplace for so many innocent civilians to perish beyond the confines of a battlefield.

39. Therefore, even today, the Church cannot but make her own the words of the Pontiffs, repeating with Pope St. Paul VI: “jamais plus la guerre, jamais plus la guerre!” [“never again war, never again war!”].[67] Moreover, together with Pope St. John Paul II, the Church pleas “in the name of God and in the name of man: Do not kill! Do not prepare destruction and extermination for people! Think of your brothers and sisters who are suffering hunger and misery! Respect each one’s dignity and freedom!”[68] As much now as ever, this is the cry of the Church and of all humanity. Pope Francis underscores this by stating, “We can no longer think of war as a solution because its risks will probably always be greater than its supposed benefits. In view of this, it is very difficult nowadays to invoke the rational criteria elaborated in earlier centuries to speak of the possibility of a ‘just war.’ Never again war!”[69] Since humanity often falls back into the same mistakes of the past, “in order to make peace a reality, we must move away from the logic of the legitimacy of war.”[70] The intimate relationship between faith and human dignity means it would be contradictory for war to be based on religious convictions: “The one who calls upon God’s name to justify terrorism, violence, and war does not follow God’s path. War in the name of religion becomes a war against religion itself.”[71]

These statements are not really novel, but they certainly call into question the concept of a just war, while not abrogating it completely.  This is interesting as well as certainly in the region itself the Ukrainian Catholic Church, if not backing the war openly, seems to be generally. 

I would note here something that's widely misunderstood.  Wars today, while they do feature civilian death, and Russia certainly has been indiscriminate in its use of airborne munitions on Ukraine, and Israel has been leveling parts of Gaza, is actually less destructive on civilians that it was some 80 years ago and that is the overall actual trend.

April 26, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hamas proposed to lay down its arms if an independent Palestinian state, which we have a long dormant thread in the hopper on, were to be created.

More specifically, it proposed:

“a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions,”

Israel is unlikely to accept that, but more than that, is such a tiny rump state even viable? 

Meanwhile, Hamas and Palestinian groups have shelled the construction area for the humanitarian pier.

May 1, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Russia and China are hosting a conference on "Palestinian reconciliation" which seeks to give Hamas a role in the West Bank.

The move is particularly cynical for China, which occupies a large landmass, Tibet, which was an actual independent nation with its own ethnicity more recently than Israel's gaining of independence and which further suppresses its Muslim population.

Further ironic are university protests across the nation effectively in support of Hamas which feature groups that, if they appeared in areas of their outright control, would be murdered.  A person can imagine that these protests are in support of Levantine independence in the region, or against Israeli actions in Gaza, but you have to jump through some uncomfortable hoops to get there.

May 2, 2024

Middle Eastern War

College campus protests in the US have grown large.

Shades of 1968, or something else?

Columbia has severed ties with Israel.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine will start operating F-16s after May 5.

May 3, 2024

Niger

Niger has invited Russian troop to encamp at an airfield used by US troops.

Middle Eastern War

Campus arrests in the US continued yesterday.

All of this is helping Trump, so the irony stands a good chance of being that the protests get Trump elected who 1) is more pro Israeli than Biden, 2) will be anti-Islamic, and 3) whose views on Putin stand a good chance of getting the US into a war with Russia when Russia invades a NATO country.

But, hey, protests are fun.  You can feel like you are really doing something, even if you aren't doing anything positive.

The UN reports that it would take until 2040 to rebuild the homes in Gaza that have been destroyed.

Given that Gaza isn't economically viable and a crap hole, it shouldn't be rebuilt, which should be obvious to all, but won't be as the Arab nations don't want the Levantines to move, and the Levantines are too politically juvenile to grasp that their future is elsewhere.

May 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are in Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske.  Ukrainian forces have been struggling with a lack of artillery ammunition due to the circus in the U.S. Congress.

May 6, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Cease fire talks have broken down.

May 7, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli ground forces entered Rafah following a series of air strikes.

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears clear that the Russians are building towards a more pronounced offensive in the north.

May 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian government has passed a bill to conscript prisoners.

Not a good sign, really.

The President has not signed it into law as of yet, and it doesn't allow conscription of those convicted of the worst offenses or having more than three years left on their sentence.

May 10, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli ground forces entered actually only went as far as the crossing into Rafah, which they now control.  President Biden has indicated that the US will scale back military support for Israel extensively if Israel enters the city.  Israel has indicated that it intends to do so none the less.

The US has withheld a shipment of 3,000 areal bombs to Israel over the potential that they'd be used in Rafah.

And this concludes this edition.

Related threads:

Iron Domes and Chutzpah

Getting into other people's fights.

Well darn.

Not a profile in courage.

The 2024 Election, Part XVII. Standing on their feet or crawling on their knees.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 4. "Maybe I shall find them among the dead."

2020s, 2024, Aircraft, Black Sea, Byzantine Catholic, Catholic, Christianity, Gaza, Hamas, Israeli Defense Force, Israeli Hamas War, religion, Russia, Russian Navy, Russo Ukrainian War, War, Wars and rumors of wars