We're only on to Feb 1 and already on to the second edition of this thread for 2023.
The reason is simple enough, the last version is already so long that certain features, such as the spell check, aren't working for new entries. It's easier and more convenient to put up a second edition.
The big news remains, of course, the war in Ukraine. Now a year old, the drama saw an anticipated Russian walk over turn into a monumentally expensive military disaster, with the Russians suffering battlefield defeats and being pushed out of much of what they'd taken in the first weeks of the war.
Right now, the battlefield is nearly static, recalling the long stretches of World War One where neither side had the ability to defeat the other. What seems to be really going on, however, is that the Russians have taken a page out of the Soviet Union's playbook and have been buying time with bodies, sending in convicts and conscripts to soak up Ukrainian munitions while they build towards a resumed offensive which is expected to start soon.
The Ukrainians know this, and are trying to prepare for it. Part of that preparation is the acquisition of modern Western heavy weapons, which have not yet been provided to them. Western military analysts have been critical of the West for this, but frankly, early in the war nobody saw the Ukrainians being in the position they now are in.
So a race is on, in which the West scrambles to provide modern main battle tanks, and Ukraine asks for any new system, including F-16s, which it thinks it can get and needs, against a Russian build up based on lessons learned and a larger army.
What should be clear is this. Putin cannot negotiate, at least not unless he fears a disaster that will remove him from office completely. Ukraine cannot give in. It's easy to figure out what a Russian victory would be, but harder to figure out how Ukraine can force a battlefield conclusion.
Having said that, Ukraine might be able to push Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and if I were their strategist, which I'm not, advance across the frontier to the western bank of the Don, which would give the country some security and perhaps something to cause a coup in Russia. But if they are going to do so, they'll have to achieve that in the next several months as it fights a country whose population has 100,000,000 more souls than it does.
Slava Ukraini.
February 1, 2023, continued:
An announcement from the Canadian government:
Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Prime Minister expressed Canada’s ongoing solidarity with the Ukrainian people as they continue to fight Russia’s brutal invasion while facing Russian strikes on civilian targets. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s military, humanitarian, and financial needs, as well as the recent announcements of significant new support to Ukraine. They also spoke about how Canada and like-minded partners could continue working together to meet Ukraine’s needs due to Russia’s ongoing illegal and unprovoked invasion.
The Prime Minister and the President talked about the upcoming somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, and the Prime Minister reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed President Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts toward a just peace, and the two leaders discussed ongoing engagement with the Global South.
The leaders agreed to remain in close and regular contact.
Canada recently announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, out of an inventory of 112, of which 82 are the combat model and the rest an engineering model.
A couple of things.
The Canadian Army doesn't have a lot of tanks, but its only really likely to need its tanks if Ukraine goes down in defeat and Russia turns its gaze on other territory it once ruled. Regarding Leopard 2 tanks in general, the British paper the Guardian notes:
There are over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 Nato countries, according to the IISS, whereas there are only 227 Challenger 2 tanks in the British entire army.
2,300.
The Ukrainians are basically asking for about 300, or at least 100.
There's plenty of them around, although some countries, the Guardian notes, have let theirs deteriorate to such a state they're pretty much unusable. Spain is in that category.
The US has 2,300 M60s in storage. They're not being used at all. A lot of them are probably not serviceable, but a lot of them could be made serviceable.
Also, Justin Trudeau came into office with a pledge to withdraw Canadian forces from their commitments in the Middle East. This isn't the Middle East, and of course the United States made a dog's breakfast out of its withdrawal from Afghanistan about two years ago. But it's interesting how events tend to dictate what countries do, as opposed to countries opting how events will proceed.
Canada, FWIW, has a pretty large Ukrainian Canadian population, that being people of Ukrainian heritage. It's estimated to number 1,359,655 people.
February 2, 2023
Israel-Hamas
Israeli aircraft hit Hamas targets in Gaza following a rocket attack.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Careful watchers of the Op Ed page might note that there's been a growing theme in the last couple of weeks of defeatist "Ukraine can never win" type of opinions being published by pundits. Boiled down, the general gist of them is 1) yes the Ukrainians have managed to hold off the Russians so far, but the Russians have an infinite capacity to absorb losses and 2) they're going to ultimately win through sheer attrition and 3) therefore, NATO support is just prolonging the suffering.
Probably all of these commentators have been against NATO support for Ukraine since the onset, for different reasons. Some are likely America Firsters, others highly fiscally conservative, and some probably Russian sympathizers. The message, however, is all the same, and this will keep up for a while in anticipation of the oncoming Russian offensive.
Historically, it might be worth remembering that the "lesson of history" that "Russia always prevails" is not supported much by actual examples. If we go back a bit, the opposite seems to be the case.
Russia lost the Crimean War, which lead to an unsuccessful effort to modernize the Russian state. It also lost the Russo-Japanese War. It also lost against the Germans in World War One, leading to a complete collapse of the Russian government and revolution, replacing the existing regime with a democratic one which was in turn replaced by a Communist one.
It was on the winning side, of course, in World War Two, but its victory in that war has been so heavily mythologized that it became misunderstood. In reality, the USSR started off as a German ally, taking part of Poland and the Baltic States, but being fought to a standstill by the much smaller nation of Finland. Its status changed in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany, but it was not able to arrest German progress without massive American and British aid. Had the Western Allies chosen to ignore the Soviet Union, which they really could not have, it's not really known what would have occurred. Lenin bargained away Poland, Belorussia and Ukraine to the Germans in 1917 in order to retain control of Russia itself, and it may well have done the same in World War Two but for Allied assistance. Germany's land lust was vast, but it never intended to take all of Russia and in fact it never occupied very much of it, most of its success being in the lands just mentioned. Moreover, the Soviets were able to rely upon the Belorussians and Ukrainians, for the most part, to fight against the Germans. People the USSR regarded as non-Russian nationalities made up to 45% of the Red Army, with Ukrainians making up over 60% of the Red Army on the Ukrainian Fronts. Jewish soldiers in the Red Army, regarded as a separate nationality, were more likely to be decorated for combat than Russians.
Looked at that way, the current war is the first time the Russians have fought a war in which their army has been more or less ethnically homogeneous since the Russian Civil War. Moreover, the actual history of Russian wars is that the Russians can endure a long war and then collapse into revolution. The Crimean War saw Cossack revolts. The Russo Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution. World War one lead to the complete collapse of the Russian state.
Ukraine can win, but it has to be given the means to do so, and very soon. If Ukraine could be adequately armed this month, and that is what it may take, the oncoming Russian spring offensive could end up a disaster. When Russian armies experience collapse, which they never did during World War Two, it usually leads to a downfall in the Kremlin.
February 3, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine is reporting that Putin has ordered the Russian forces to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.
The particularly concerning thing about this is that it's very doubtful that new armor will be deployed in Ukraine by the time of the Russian offensive.
Russians have been seeking passports in mass numbers. Russia has suspended issuing them, and now Russians are seeking foreign passports.
China
China has been overflying the United States with a spy balloon. The US pondered shooting it down, but concluded its intelligence gathering abilities are limited, and it would be more dangerous as a falling object.
Yesterday it was over Montana.
February 4, 2023
China
A second Chinese spy balloon has been spotted, this one headed for an overflight of South America.
Secretary of State Blinken cancelled an intended visit to China over this.
Frankly, there's no good reason for the US not to have shot this down over southern Canada, if Canada would have allowed for it to happen, or for the Canadians to do it. Likewise, while it was over Wyoming or Montana, it should have been shot down. The junk it's carrying would have hit nothing.
Russia
The US is seeking to expel the Wagner Group from Sudan and Libya.
Feb 4, cont.
China v. US.
Perhaps for the first time since World War One, a US aircraft has shot down a balloon.
February 6, 2023
China v. US.
The Administration has announced that it was discovered that the Chinese flew spy balloons over the US during the Trump administration, but apparently they were not detected at the time. The revelation was dismissed by Trump as "fake disinformation". The Biden Administration offered to brief the Trumpites.
At any rate, the news that the Chinese have been able to pull this off over the past several years undetected is not good news.
Additionally, with the past week or so a U.S. Air Force general has stated that he's fairly certain there will be a war between the United States and China over the defense of Taiwan. Interestingly this has been a sort of Republican rallying point even though some sections of the GOP are willing to abandon Ukraine. While perhaps not obvious to everyone, a Ukrainian victory would perhaps serve to delay that, and delay might serve to prevent it.
As for the balloon itself, there is speculation that this was an intentional provaction designed to demonstrate that the US couldn't react, and would do so ineffectively. If so, it probably partially succeeded in demonstrating that, given as the US was so slow to shoot it down.
February 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Ukraine's president, asking for more arms for the country yesterday, also asked for admission to the European Union.
February 11, 2023
China v. US and Canada
Two more balloons have now been shot down, one over norther Alaska and one over British Columbia. The US shot them both down, the latter via a Canadian request.
The balloons have not been affirmatively identfied as Chinese, but seeing as China is a 19th Century imperial power and balloons a 19th Century surveillance aircraft, it seems likely.
China has become a full blown menace. Where this is headed seems fairly obvious.
February 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
There are suddenly a lot of voices coming out of Russia suggesting that it won't be able to launch its anticipated spring offensive due, in part, to manpower losses.
Russia has been taking combat losses like crazy the past couple of weeks, and while its made slight gains, they've been very slight and are comiing at a huge cost.
Ukraine has destroyed a Russian BMPT Terminator in combat. The much vaunted autonomous combat vehicle was overblown to start with and unlikely to amount much, as has been the case with all prior attempts to deploy weapons of this type.
Lithuanian supplied Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns have arrived in Ukraine. Ukraine itself is presssing for Western fighter aircraft.
February 12, cont:
And now another object shot down, this one over Lake Huron.
February 13, 2023
China v. US and Canada
The Aerodrome: Why Canada didn't shoot down the "unidentified" ob...: An excellent thread on NORAD and the strategic considerations that went into it and the modern RCAF: Why didn't Canada shoot down the o...
One of the things he points out in this post is that the F-22, which Canada does not have, is one of the few aircraft capable of performing in the fighter role at such a high altitude.
The
Meet the Press interviews on this were interesting. A Congressman who is up to speed stated that he doesn't think the second and third objects are likely Chinese. They may very well not be, and its always possible they weren't threats at all.
It's been pointed out ot me by a highly knowledgable person that the reason we may be picking up so many of these now is that NORAD has adjusted its radar screening to pick these up. The Congressman made the same point. We have traditionally been looking for Soviet or Chinese ICBMs and Soviet aircraft, not slow moving balloons.
Finally, a commentator made the point that we may call these balloons, but they're really drones.
On a goofball level, lots of people are launching speculation on whether they indicate an alien invasion, meaning alien from outspace as opposed to alien from another country.
I also saw somebody quote Noam Chomsky, to the effect that government and elites need to keep people distracted in order to carry out their agenda. Frankly, I don't know why anyone quotes Chomsky on anything whatsoever, other than linquistics. Feeling that the government and elites in this country are so coordinated that they have a plan to keep us distracted while they do whatever deeply evil nepharious, and right wing, plot against the working me of the 1930s is crediting everyone with a lot more organization and foresight than they deserve. Anyhow, that person thought the whole thing was a false flag operation.
Get a grip.
Frank Luke, who won a Congressional Medal of Honor, posthumously, for balloon busing in World War One with his SPAD S.XIII.
Russo Ukrainian War.
The Institute for the Study of War credits Russia with a real information false flag, in the form of media propoganda designed to suggest back in December that they were ready for peace talks, when they were not. This, the Institute maintains, delayed the supplying of armor to Ukraine.
There's no reason whatsoever to believe at this point that the Russians are aiming for anything else than the complete defeat of Ukraine.
February 14, 2023
Russia v. Moldova
Moldovan coat of arms.
Moldova has revealed a Russian plot, first revealed by Ukraine last week, to destabilize the small country and bring it into the Russian orbit.
Moldova is an independent country because of Russia, but not in the way a person might at first imagine. It was part of the Russian Empire after 1812 and then declared independence in 1918, and then joined Romania later that same year. The country is essentially Romanian. The Soviet Union took the territory back in 1940 which was a principal cause of Romania joining Operation Barbarossa the following year. Following the Axis defeat, the USSR took it back, but it left again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That Russia continues to covet it is interesting. This appears to be at least partially in reaction to Moldova's efforts to move closer to the EU in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
February 16, 2023
British defense estimates figure that the Russians have potentially committed 97% of their Army to combat in Ukraine and have now sustained so many casualties that they no longer can engage in a sustained offensive.
If this is correct, and its a big if, it would likely mean the anticiapted spring offensive is not coming, and beyond that, the Russians might not be able to mount a sustained defense against a Ukrainian offensive.
February 17, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
Russians have put in excess of 6,000 Ukrainian children through reducation camps.
Marina Yankina, a Russian defense official whose role in the current war was with finance, fell, supposedly, from a 16 story building to her death.
Hmmm. . . .
China v. US and Canada
The Aerodrome: Failed Balloon Run: It's now known that the U.S. Air Force did attempt to shoot down the Chinese balloon over Montana, using the F-22's cannons as the i...
February 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
The Wagner Group has sustained 30,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine.
Parts of the Belorussian defense industry are being taken over by Russia.
February 19, 2023
United States v. ISIS
February 20, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Analysts increasingly believe that Russia is in its Spring offensive, but that it has adopted a World War One attrition style strategy where it simply throws men at the Ukrainians knowing that they are expending ammunition, and lives themselves, resisting them. The strategy isn't to be rapid, but simply cause Ukraine to hemorrhage.
Ukraine is aware of this, which is why it is begging for modern weapons with which to launch its own more mobile offensive.
Russia has committed 97% of its army to combat at its strategy is not without risk. It's performance has been abysmal and its using up its human resources.
Some, however, believe that the slowness of the Russian advance reflects wartime attrition, and that the Russians are actually deploying per doctrine, but without much armor.
China appears ready to start supplying Russia with weapons. The US is warning China not to do so. There's some speculation that China hopes to prolong the war as it does not wish to see Russia fail, and it wants the US to use up its weapons stockpile so that it has nothing with which to aid Taiwan in the (highly likely) event that China attempts to invade Taiwan.
President Biden is in Kyiv.
February 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Vladimir Putin suspended the START Treaty regarding nuclear weapons, the irony being that a country whose conventional weapons have been shown to be ineffective, and which is using them up at a prodigious rate, can hardly afford to engage in a nuclear arms race.
Putin did this in an epic length speech on the anniversary of the war he launched on his neighbor. The speech was telling as he claims that he's not waging a war on the Ukrainians themselves. This raises the question of to what extent Putin might actually be delusional.
NPR released an excellent edition of its podcast State of Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the war.
Ukrainian newspapers have broken the news that they have a secret Russian document outlining Russian plans to absorb Byelorussia by 2030.
February 23, 2023
China v. United States and Canada
The Aerodrome: United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph ...:
In this photo, you can see the U2's shadow.
Russia v. Moldova
Vladimir Putin renounced his 2012 guarantee of Moldova's territorial integrity.
February 24, 2023
Russia v. Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldova
The UN passed a resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine.
Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been moved near Russia's border with Byelorussia in what appears likely to be staging for a false flag attack on that country, in an effort to expand the war.
Russia also appears to be staging for a false flag operation in Transnistria, the Russian enclave/breakaway region of Moldova. The area houses one of the world's largest prestaged arms and ammunition stockpiles.
All of this suggests that Russia is set to attempt to expand, not contract, the war.
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