Showing posts with label 2022 Wyoming Legislature. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2022 Wyoming Legislature. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Mid Week At Work. Overheard retirement conversations, random emails and musings.

Now it's 67, after a certain age. . . for the time being.  Just like Wyoming judges used to have to retire at 70 and Game Wardens at 60.  Now Game Wardens can stay until they die in the cabs of their trucks at advance old age, although few stay that long, and the state legislature would like to have judges stay on the bench so long, Judges who were serving at the time of the writing of the Book of Judges could still be on the bench.

Back in June, the parish priest as the parish where I normally go retired.

He was the priest at the Newman Center for most of the time I was at the University of Wyoming, and then twice here locally.  He must be 70 years old, but he looks remarkably fit and vigorous, and indeed almost exactly the same as he did 30 plus years ago in his late 30s and early 40s.

Not too many people can say that, although a fortunate few can.

I note this as in the last few months I've been overhearing a lot of comments on retirement, observing a few folks I know who retired, and receiving emails on the topic as well.  And in the news, of course, we have the proposed Pine Box Amendment to the Wyoming Constitution, which I posted about in the current election thread:

Proposed Amendment B.

The amendment summary that will appear on the ballot states:

Currently, the Wyoming Constitution requires Wyoming Supreme Court justices and district court judges to retire upon reaching the age of seventy (70). This amendment increases the mandatory retirement age of Supreme Court justices and district court judges from age seventy (70) to age seventy-five (75).


It's been interesting.

A young person that I know, in her early 20s, stated to me "what does a priest do in retirement"?  It's a good question.  I don't really know, but the few retired priests I've known sort of continued to serve as priests. They're not relieved of their obligations to say Mass.  For the most part, what those priests seemed to do was to move into a rectory and serve Mass, and hear Confessions.  I guess what they're relieved of is their obligations to run a parish, which no doubt are pretty significant.

One Priest I know, who reached retirement age, did not.  He was Nigerian and returned to his home country.  Before he left, he told me that Priests in Nigeria do not retire, they serve until they die, which was his intent.

The Wyoming Supreme Court and the state legislature, some of whom are late Boomers, maybe the majority of whom are late Boomers, are endorsing the view that they can continue to serve five years past their physical deaths.  

That's an exaggeration, of course, but as I've written about before, the assumptions that a person can work in a position of public trust until they go from the bench to a pine box and not suffer in their work in any fashion is foolish.

It's also, in my view, more than a bid arrogant.  Shouldn't these positions be opened up to people who are closer to the average demographic of the state and nation?

And do they have no other interests?

I worry a bit about that, as I've seen at least two ancient lawyers seemingly age past the point of their actually having any other interests. They didn't want to go to court anymore, but they seemingly had nothing much else to do. They took annual vacations, but otherwise came into the office until they died.  This is all the more interesting as neither one had started off to be lawyers, so the old fable that "I've always wanted to be a lawyer" that some lawyers lie about in order to convince themselves that giving up a chance to be a minor league baseball player or something made sense.

Another lawyer I know who is old enough to retire, but who is in good health, keeps on working a full schedule.  I note this as our lives intersect in some odd fashions, one of which is that he also had agricultural interests.  His father was a rancher and his sister married a farmer.  He told me that at one time he imagined himself sort of retiring to the ranch, but just before his father had a stroke and then died, they sold the place.  He seems set on being a lawyer until he dies, taking off sometime for nice biannual vacations.

I'm like my father in contrast.  I just don't take vacations, which is a very bad trait.  Maybe that's why retirement as a concept is on my mind, as I don't take much time off for myself, so I think I can catch up on that once I retire.

In overall contrast, one lawyer I know who has eased into mostly retired has in fact taken up some of his longtime activities in earnest.  I sort of regard him as a model that way.

Another lawyer I know pretty well who is far too young to retire, but has it on his distant radar screen (let's say he's 50), has all sorts of retirement plans, most of which involve being a globe trotter.

He is, however, obviously not a physical fitness bluff and hits the dinner table more often than the gym, which is to say he hits the gym never.  I don't hit the gym either, but up until this year I was in pretty good physical shape, maybe a beneficiary of genetics in that fashion.  I hate to say it, and I don't know how to say it to him, but my guess is that he'll die before reaching that age.  He speaks longingly and optimistically about what he's going to do, but there are things you have to do that, one of which his good health,1

I've noted here before, my father enjoyed good health right up until he didn't, and he died at 62.  His father died at 47. Neither of them retired.2

A lawyer friend of mine and I have enjoyed good health up until this year, and we've both had scares in recent weeks.  I'm not going into it, but I'm in the category of having dodged a bullet, maybe.  Had I not, I would probably have been dead within a few years.

Of course, life is fickle, and you really never know when you are going to board the barque across the River Styx.  Just yesterday, an old Guard friend of mine let me know that a guy we were in the Guard with died following a surgery that was supposed to have worked well.  He was only about 65.

Leaping back up, my unhealthy friend also has a very large family, which is his right.  There are certainly people with very large families that retire, but he's looking at a long list of college tuition payments, the first of which he just started and the last of which isn't anywhere near to commencing.

We pick our lies and take what that means, but some people don't seem to realize that.  I.e, having a giant sized rib for lunch might not be your best option.

All of which gets to the topic of being able to afford to do that.

I married later than most men do (I was 32) and so we started our family late.  My wife comes from a ranching family and while we've been very frugal, working to get her over the agricultural concept of money, which is extraordinarily short term and which features the concept of constant loans as normal, has been difficult.  And a diehard absolute dedication to our children, now in their 20s, that she has, and which is common to mothers, is highly exhibited.  All this means that while we haven't done badly, we haven't done as well as we could.

Maybe, however, we just don't know what that means.  One of the blogs linked in here, Mr. Money Mustache, strongly takes that position. Lots of people can retire who don't, as they don't grasp they can.

In that context, I've tended to find that for men in my situation, I'm ten years older than Long Suffering Spouse, the latter personality resists the older retiring.  We're past that point now, really, but it had been a pretty clearly on the horizon of resistance for a long time.  In most relationships like this, with ours being no exception, the older person gets the larger income and that means a lot.

I'm not, I'd note, of Social Security retirement age, either.  So this is more than a little hypothetical.

A good friend of mine who is a lawyer constantly talks about retiring, and then doesn't.  Recently, he's been expressing the concept of stepping back into lesser roles.

This is interesting.  When a person finds that there are aspects of his work that he doesn't want to do, but he'd like to keep doing the ones he does as a retirement plan, he better be working in a field that accommodates that. Law isn't that, at least by my observation.  You are in, or you are out.  It's not like you can decide to take a lesser role as a football player, for example.  Law is sort of like that.

Still, I see a lot of lawyers go into their late 60s and then their 70s still practicing, which is the point of the proposed Pine Box amendment to the Wyoming Constitution. It's interesting.  Some do seem to have stepped into some sort of genteel role, others not.  

I've tended to notice that family businesses tolerate the stepping down role better than others. Farms and ranches often are, for example, and some small stores are.  Before the complete corporatization of the economy, that might explain why these lines of work were so admired, really.  They were part of life, with life predominating.  Now your role as a consumer does.

Which might be part of the current war against retirement.  It's interesting.  Everyone in the larger society wants you at work.  I've noticed this on a few things recently.  It seems no one wants people in the US to retire. Ever.

Indeed, I saw this entry on Reddit the other day.

This is a rant. I’m sick of all the articles with the same message: work, work, work and never stop. The biggest reasons are: you want that “full Social Security benefit” at 67, (but hey why not hold off until you’re 70 and get even more?) The other reason is “healthcare is expensive”. The push from the media outlets telling us to keep working is essentially propaganda. Instead, why isn’t anyone lobbying for us to fight for better? It’s complete bullsh*t. “ If you run out of your own money, SS alone isn’t enough to live on.” Well I’m not planning to live out my life on a cruise ship FFS, just staying put in my own little house. I’m sorry I live in a country that lets poor people die. Is it too much to ask for our government to provide a decent pension and healthcare to it’s oldest citizens? Nope. This is how it is and rather than try to get the government to fix it, just keep working until you die. BTW I rage-retired 2 months ago, at age 61, due to burn out and I’m living on my savings while my 401k hopefully recovers a bit. But, it was always my plan to start collecting Social Security at 62 (even though my own Financial Advisor is against it) because my mother died at 51 and my father at 69. If I wait I may never see a penny of SS. I know this rant won’t change anything. I just felt like screaming into the void.

And then there's this item that was run in the online version of the ABA Journal. 

A funny thing happened on the way to my retirement

Some items from it:

My attorney friend Ron Taylor, the former general counsel of Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Texas, once advised me not to retire from something “unless you have something to retire to.” That struck me as a truth, and I am fortunate to have other passions to pursue; for you see, my mistress, the law, gave me the freedom to develop them without totally giving her up.

And;  

While many senior lawyers are resting on their laurels and leaving the legal profession, I’m still going strong after more than 41 years of practice as a civil defense lawyer, defending companies in mass casualty high-exposure cases. As I approached my 65th birthday last year, I struggled mightily with how to end my 41-plus year romance (43 including law school) with the law and the law firm, Wilson Elser, I have loved for 30 of those years.

When considering retirement, you can stage and prolong and enhance your career in the process, but to do so, you must first understand that in some ways, retirement for lawyers is a misnomer. It can perhaps better be framed as, “What do you want the next stage of your career to look like?” Retirement is an intensely personal matter, and the answer to this question depends on your interests inside and outside the law and what you want to do now.

At the core of this process is the ability to allow yourself to step back from what you were doing before in order to make more time for other things, such as your outside interests and hobbies. This is an opportunity to rebalance your life and to give you more time to do things outside the law while extending your career inside the profession. Work less at what you were doing before and do more of what you are passionate about. In other words, mix them up to suit your new reality. This can and should be a win-win situation.

The law as a mistress line is a common one among lawyers, and it isn't used in a complimentary fashion.  "The law is a jealous mistress" is the line, and what it means is that the law takes up your time to the exclusion of all else. She won't let you hae any other interests.

The advice Ron gave the author essentially was to marry the mistress, I guess.  Or sort of. That author seemed to be one of the balanced lawyers who was able to do other things.  I'm much less so.  Anyhow, when I read this line, I'm always reminded of the lines spoken by the wounded bandit in The Professionals, about how "the Revolution" goes from being a great love, admired from afar, and pure, to a jealous mistress, to a whore.

Not a pleasant thought.

Anyhow, this is an example, I think of society, which in the 1930s through 70s asked you to look forward to retirement, now wants to keep you from doing it.

"What do you want the next stage of your career to look like?”3 

Indeed, society wants you at work no matter what you do. Thinking about retiring?  Hang on a few more years.  Thinking about staying home with your infant?  Let's warehouse the little non-productive snot in a daycare.  Thinking about staying home with your elderly parent?  Let's put the used up geezer in a "home".  Pregnant?  Let's kill that drain on society before it's born and takes you out of the workplace for a few weeks.

Footnotes:

1.  This puts me in an odd position, as I tend to be pretty honest and when I can't be, I tend just to hold my tongue.  But when somebody who eats three gigantic meals a day and is extremely overweight tells you about their plans to travel when they retire, if you know then, what is your obligation?  Do you say, "Bill, if you don't keep eating the cheesy entire walrus lunch special, you are going to stroke out and never retire?"  Nobody wants to hear that, but maybe you should.

2.  My father was at the point where he wanted to retire.  He just didn't make it.

3.  This fellow, fwiw, recommended the following:

Take your own deposition to gain clarity

Where do you begin? I took a novel approach—I took my own deposition! As a trial lawyer I’d taken thousands of depositions in my career but never one sitting across the table from myself. Lawyers are great at asking questions—after all we are trained in the Socratic method—so why not make a little exercise of taking our own depositions regarding this important decision? The goal is to “know thyself” and what thyself wants to do next.

Questions to ponder:

• How much longer do you want to work?

• Do you have any unfinished goals or projects you’d like to complete?

• What alternate legal work matches your skills and abilities, such as alternative dispute resolution?

• What legal topics interest you that you’d like to know more about?

• What bar activities would you like to pursue?

• Are there any pro bono projects that interest you?

• Would you like to teach law students?

• How about that book you were going to write inspired by your legal experience handling cases and closing deals?

There’s an incredible wealth of possibilities.

In cross-examining ourselves, we can arrive at clarity as to what comes next. You’ve given most of your life to the law, so put your experience to work for you. Make a plan based on your answers to your own personal deposition and follow it into your transition.

This cannot help but bring to mind the scense in the early Woody Allen film Banana Republic in which Allen, who accidentally ends up a Central American revolutionary, ends up subjecting himself to a devestating cross examination when he calls himself as a witness in his trial.

Related threads:

Overheard on retirement

Saturday, August 13, 2022

The Idle Rich and Noblesse obligee.

Territorial seal of Wyoming, depicting rich people from other areas moving in to control the state's politics. . . oh, wait. . . it mostly depicts work.

And I'm gonna tell you workers,

'fore you cash in your checks 

They say "America First," 

but they mean "America Next!"

Woody Guthrie, Lindbergh.

This was originally going to be a post in the election thread, as it comes up in that context.

Here's how.

Recently former Wyoming Secretary of State Max Maxfield filed an election complaint against Chuck Gray which in essence stated that Mr. Gray only reports $11,000 in income per year, but loaned his abandoned campaign against Liz Cheney over $200,000.  The math, Mr. Maxfield maintains, doesn't add up for a guy whose only been in the state for a decade and who must be in his early 30s.  In other words, how can a guy with no visible means of support earning money at the poverty level loan himself that kind of dough.

Well, the answer is pretty obvious.  Gray has external funding sources.

In the recent debate with his opponent Tara Nethercott he accused her of being behind the Maxfield effort, for which there is no evidence at all.  Nethercott surely didn't start it, but she has made use of it, noting that his connection with work is pretty thin.  Gray has attempted to defend himself by accusing Nethercott of being a "lawyer/politician".

That's ironic for Gray, as he's also a politician. They both have been in the legislature the same length of time.  Moreover, while I can't find it now, while Gray was at Wharton he gave an interview to some sort of school journal in which he said his ambition was to become a lawyer.  So his disdain of lawyers apparently comes more recently.

Gray said in the debate that he had inherited the money that he loaned to his campaign, which in some ways, although he probably doesn't realize it, makes this story worse.  As does this:

August 11, 2022

The Trib ran an article on this date on campaign donations and the various candidates.

Perhaps the most remarkable figures where for Secretary of State, where Chuch Gray has raised $528,000 to Nethercott's $333,000.  Of that, $500,000 of Gray's money was donated by his father and $10,000 from himself, meaning he's really raised $18,000.  Nethercott loaned her campaign $95,000.

Gray has seemingly been able to get by in the state for a decade with a light attraction to what most people would regard as substantial work, assuming that his role at his family's radio station isn't accounted for in some other fashion that's allowable under the IRS code but which isn't regarded as income.  I have no idea.  That may be the case.  At any rate, however, most people's parents aren't in a situation to give them $500,000 in their early 30s in order to mount a bid for office.

Which raises a number of topics.

The first is, in regard to Gray, does this matter?

I'd think so.

What a person does with their own money is their own business, to an extent. But when it comes to spending money in order to obtain a public office, that's everyone's business.  One of Gray's recent television advertisements complains that Nethercott voted for a bill to raise the Secretary of State's wages to $125,000, for instance.

This would suggest that Gray thinks $125,000 for that office is a lot, but it's not.  The median income for Wyoming is $33,000, which is very low, so for a lot of people that would be a lot, but Nethercott will probably be taking a pay cut if she wins.  Gray will be getting a big pay raise, but apparently his situation is such that this doesn't really matter.

Of course, it's a four-year position, which also means that Nethercott will have to work the better part of a year to pay back the load to herself.  Gray won't have to, but the $500,000 investment on the part of his father?  Well, I guess that's also like spending your inheritance.  That somebody is willing to spend a half million dollars to obtain a job that will take several years in pay in order to recoup the loss raises, yet again, more questions.

All of which gets to this.

Very few people are in the category of "idle rich". Even most of the rich aren't in the category of idle rich, where they have so much surplus cash they really don't have to do anything.

If a person is in that category, what they do with their cash is their own business, as long as they are honest about it, and their employment of their resources doesn't work to the detriment of other people.

And that's the problem with what Gray is doing.

Wyoming has experienced an influx of money in recent years, with there being some really spectacular examples.  Susan Gore, who has funded far right political movements, is one such example.  She's not from here, but more than that, she's not of here either.  Her efforts are funding attempts to make the state into something it's never been, under the banner of "liberty".  Gray is part of that same effort.  

Gore is one example, but Gray's quite another.  The resources presumably are nowhere equal, but the thought of a young man seemingly employing his efforts at doing little else other than to try to advance in politics in a state he has virtually no connection with is, well, disturbing.  I can't really imagine it myself.  That is, if I had surplus money, I don't think I'd go, let's say, to Alaska and try to influence their politics.

But that's what Gray has being doing from day one here, and that's what people like Susan Gore and Foster Friess have been attempting as well.  To make it worse, the Wyoming they're trying to recreate is an imaginary one that they don't really know.  The state they moved to isn't the one they think it was, and what they're attempting to make it into isn't where most of us would have wanted to go.

At one time, having vast idle wealth in the country bound a person to obligation.  We only recently mentioned the two Roosevelts who were elected President in this blog, as they were rich men. They were both examples of this, however.

But they were also examples of noblesse oblige, the sense that "being nobility obligates".

This was particularly true in the case of Theodore Roosevelt.  His father was wealthy, but he'd also been dedicated to the cause of poor newsboys, something that was a real problem in his era.  Theodore Roosevelt senior also made it plain to Theodore Roosevelt, Jr. that their wealth would enable the younger man to choose a career of his liking that didn't have to pay well, but he'd have to choose one.  Originally, the later President had intended to be a scientist, and indeed was published and well regarded in natural history.

Indeed, while Theodore Roosevelt, following his father's death, turned to the then disreputable career of politician in years as tender as that of Gray's, he never really quit working.  He wrote, he published, he studied, and he ranched.  His finances were not always great by any means as he's overspend in his endeavors, but his capacity for work was literally manic.

Wealthy New Yorker Theodore Roosevelt, who resigned from his position as Assistant Secretary of the Navy to serve at great hazard in the Spanish American War.  We don't see too many wealthy Americans doing this sort of service anymore.

I know less about his cousin Franklin, but Franklin always admired Theodore.  He came to the nation's attention first as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, something Theodore Roosevelt had also been.  So he entered public service. . . as a type of bureaucrat. . . .  before he was a politician.


And other examples abound.  Winston Churchill, who was from a wealthy family (although he always overspent his resources, as did his mother) served as a British Army cavalryman in his early years, with that being his intended career in an era in which those born into British wealth were not expected to "work" but to go into public service in the military or the clergy, or perhaps engage in agriculture.  He took a break from that to act as a correspondent, and then later served in the Army again in the early part of World War One before entering politics.  T. E. Lawrence, from the same class, and burdened with the same cultural expectation not to "work", was first an archeologist before entering the British Army during the Great War.

John F. Kennedy in World War Two.

Turning back to our own shores, I'll be frank that I'm not a fan of the Kennedy family, including John F. Kennedy. But the President of the early 1960s had served, and heroically, in the U.S. Navy during the Second World War. That's definitely work.

Yet another interesting example would be George S. Patton, whose family was very wealthy.  Patton had a career as a soldier, quite obviously, as that was something people in his class did.

Patton in World War One.

We don't seem to see things like this much anymore.

Gray, according to what little we know of him, went right from Wharton to a Wyoming radio station.  A really blistering article in WyoFile notes his career and that he was reported as an executive at the station.  That article goes on to note that the radio entity in Wyoming seems to facially be out of compliance with registration requirements   The article is so extensive that about all you can do is quote from it, rather than try to summarize it, as it notes:

He has listed Mount Rushmore Broadcasting, Inc. as his sole employment — initially working as a program director, then later as an operations manager — on each of his requisite elected official financial disclosure forms.  

According to records from the secretary of state’s office — and later confirmed by a department spokesperson — Mount Rushmore Broadcasting was administratively dissolved by the state almost two decades ago for failing to file annual reports and pay its license fees to Wyoming. Gray’s father, Jan Charles Gray, is president of the Delaware-based entity, according to state records. The entity uses a registered agent in its Wyoming filings, but 2016 documents from the Federal Communications Commission indicate that the elder Gray is also owner of the corporation. 

Like all out-of-state entities, it was required to obtain a certificate of authority from the secretary of state’s office before transacting business in the state. It did so in 1993, according to state records, but failed to file requisite annual reports and pay yearly fees based on its assets located and employed in Wyoming. Mount Rushmore entered into a 24-month period during which it could have paid a reinstatement fee, as well as what was already owed. But the company did not comply within the two-year window, after which Wyoming statute does not allow entities to be brought back into good standing. 

Monique Meese with the Wyoming Secretary of State’s office confirmed that Mount Rushmore Broadcasting, Inc. was administratively dissolved on June 10, 2003 and thereby lost the ability to be reinstated. At press time, the entity was not under review by the office, Meese said, because no written complaints had been submitted. 

On his most recent state elected officials financial disclosure form dated Jan. 28, 2022, Gray listed operations manager of Mount Rushmore Broadcasting as his employment. According to his campaign website, he began his career there in 2013 “as a radio executive and hosted a conservative radio show,” until 2019.

During a July candidate forum in Casper, Gray said he became a permanent resident of Wyoming in 2012. He spent his childhood summers here with his father after his parents divorced, he said. 

Prior to going to work for his father, Gray graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with bachelor’s of science and bachelor’s of arts degrees, according to his lawmaker bio

When WyoFile approached Gray to clarify his professional experience immediately following the forum in Casper, he declined to answer questions, but said he would respond to written questions over email. WyoFile sent several written questions to the lawmaker, including a request for more details regarding his duties as an employee of Mount Rushmore Broadcasting and how his academic and professional resumes qualified him for the position. Gray responded with a statement about ballot drop boxes and ballot harvesting — he feels both are threats to election integrity — but no further information on his background. WyoFile sent a subsequent email asking about his employer conducting business in Wyoming without a certificate of authority. The lawmaker did not respond. 

Mount Rushmore Broadcasting is currently the licensee for two AM stations and five FM stations in Wyoming, according to Federal Communications Commission records. Most of those stations are in Casper, and all but one of those can currently be heard on the air.

In 2016, three years after Gray claims to have begun working there, Mount Rushmore entered into a consent decree with the FCC for failing to maintain a full-time management and staff presence at the main studio of two of its stations during regular business hours, among other things. One term of the settlement was a $25,000 civil penalty, which was less than the originally proposed penalty. Mount Rushmore Broadcasting submitted a sworn statement along with several years of tax returns indicating an inability to pay all forfeitures, according to the consent decree. The original amount was just under $160,000, according to the FCC. Part of the agreement required Mount Rushmore Broadcasting to pay the remainder of the originally proposed penalties if the FCC found it misled the commission regarding its financial status. The commission declined to say whether that occurred. 

In 2015, Mount Rushmore Broadcasting paid almost $5,000 in back wages to former employees, after the U.S. Department of Labor sued the entity for not properly paying its workers. 

Between April 2020 and March 2021, it received more than $28,000 in federal dollars through the Paycheck Protection Program in order to retain two jobs. Gray, a vocal opponent of federal subsidies, voted during the 2022 Legislative session against a bill authorizing the state to spend other pandemic relief funds. He declined to answer questions on the matter when WyoFile contacted him for previous reporting.

I'd note that there could be explanations for why it is seemingly out of compliance with filing requirements in Wyoming, and indeed for all of this, but it does raise questions.

Maybe the bigger question, however, is this.  Does simply graduating from school really mean that you are now qualified to legislate and govern?

I guess the voters can and will decide that. But quite frankly, those who were not born wealthy, and have had to work, have rounder experiences than those who simply benefitted from the circumstances of their births.  Those born wealthy, however, who have educated themselves in school and out in the world have different qualifications yet, and are often quite admirable.

The Roosevelts, we'd note, were champions of the poor.  Theodore Roosevelt wouldn't even be qualified to walk into a county Republican Party meeting today, in spite of still being admired as a Republican President.  John F. Kennedy, for all his faults, was concerned with the same class as well.  Churchill had to be restrained from directly entering into combat a couple of times during World War Two.

Noblesse Oblige.

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five


Russo Ukrainian War

Why part five so soon?

Well, lots of reasons, including that these threads are filling up quickly.

But beyond that, a big one is that it appears that the war is definitely taking a new turn.

The Russian offensive has been an embarrassing failure in numerous ways.  Thought of as a large scale armored blitzkrieg through inadequate Ukrainian forces, in fact it was held back everywhere and slowed down enormously where it wasn't.  Ukrainian forces proved more than a match for Russian ones, which have proven to be largely inept and badly equipped.  They've now been thrown back in the north and out of the that region of the country, with Russian units abandoning great masses of equipment that Russia will not be able to rapidly replace.  Such material replacement as will be forthcoming, moreover, will simply be with the demonstrably bad equipment that's been failing in Ukraine.

The thought is that Russia will not concentrate its offensive in the East and Southeast, where it has already had a measure of success.  Perhaps it's now aiming for a more limited goal.

Numerous Russian generals have been killed in the war, and as part of its renewed effort, it seems to be reshuffling its command structure.  As noted herein, the other day:

Alexander Dvornikov, age 60, has been placed in commanad of the Russian effort.  He has prior combat command experience from Syria.  It is widely speculated that the Russians shall commences a renewed offensive in the east to consolidate their gains there.

Dvornikov has been known as the Butcher of Syria.  That may be telling as well.

Russian troops withdrawing from the north have left a swath of murder and violence perpetrated against civilians.  We've already cataloged that in a prior thread.  With each passing day, it grows worse and gets harder to ignore.  The missile strike on a train station the other day featured a missile with the words "for the children" written on it.  In many areas, Russian troops seem to have murdered military aged men and raped women on a wide scale.  This report surfaced from a Ukrainian journalist just the other day:

Anastasiia Lapatina
@lapatina_
At least 25 women and girls, as young as 14, were raped by Russians in one basement in Bucha. Nine of them are pregnant. Russian soldiers said “they would rape them to the point where they wouldn't want sexual contact with any man, to prevent them from having Ukrainian children."

Since the Second World War, the debate has existed on whether the Red Army was a professional army or simply an armed mob.  To at least some degree, it was both, getting better doctrinaly as the war ended.  But at that same time, the Red Army committed the largest example of mass rape in modern history.  Somewhat ignored after the war, the debate has always existed if this was an example of a breakdown in discipline or institutional revenge.

Whatever it was, it seems to have become institutionalized in the Russian army, which is made up of conscripts from the bottom of Russian society.  Whether or not the Red Army was a gang of undisciplined, brutalized ignorant peasants, the modern Russian army seems to be made up of undisciplined, poorly trained, badly equipped, lowlifes.  

The Ukrainian Army, in contrast, has gone from amateur to Western proficient in a little under a decade.  It may very well beat the Russian army if it's given the equipment to do it, and right now that means armor and artillery.  The Ukrainians themselves are not giving up anywhere, and even now the fighting goes on in occupied Mariupol.

Whatever has happened here, it's clear that Putin is a mentally deranging cancer in Russia.  The Russians have to be defeated before that can be addressed by his own people.  We should give them whatever is necessary to achieve that goal.

Course of war from beginning through April 9, 2022MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

As for the war's currenet status, lines have not seemed to change for some days. There is widespread speculation that the Russians are preparing for a new offensive in the East/Southeast.  The speculation is likely correct, but the often cited claims taht troops withdrawn from the north are going to be redeployed in that effort strikes me as unlikley, given their unit destruction and material loss to date.

Potential use of chemical weapons by the Russians is being investigated in Mariupul.  It's inportant to note that this has not been established.

The Pentagon is ramping up the effort to supply weapons to Ukraine, with the US already being the largest supplier. Reflecting the effort to date to supply Ukraine with Soviet pattern weapons, a cache of Mi-17 helicopters in US inventories is being supplied.  Humveh trucks are being supplied. Artillery is being supplied.  Switchblade drones have already been supplied, and now Predator or Reaper drones, or both, appear to be slated.

The US clarified that it is not opposed to Polish Mig 29s being supplied to Ukraine, but only to their being flown from a US base in Germany directly to Ukraine.

Poland, for its part, is supplying up to 100 T-72s to Ukraine, a very substantial contribution, although as we've learned so far in this war, Russian armor is junk.  Of note, at least some of the Polish T72s are T72M1Rs, an upgraded variant with modern sights.

April 13, cont:

According to reports coming out today, Sweden will seek to join NATO in June, and it's likely Finland will apply around the same time.

This is really an amazing development.  Both nations have maintained an officially neutral stance since World War Two, although not for the same reasons.  Sweden has due to a traditional defense posture which allowed it to stay out of World War Two.  Finland, of course, was invaded by the Soviet Union prior to World War Two and then became an Axis ally in an unsuccessful effort to recapture and keep the territory it has only recently given up to the Soviets.  Its neutrality was enforced due to the bargain that it cut with the Soviet Union in order to remain an independent state.

Finland must feel that its security can no longer be guaranteed by its "Finlandization" arrangement, and Sweden must be nervous about Russian aspirations in the neighborhood as well. Additionally, in spite of being officially neutral, Sweden has long armed itself with NATO compliant standards and obviously assumed that it its territory was invaded NATO would come to its aid.  With a longstanding position emphasizing global cooperation and peace, it must also feel that modern Russia has become a threat to its ideals.

April 14, 2022

The Russian Navy's Black Sea Flag Ship Moskva was hi in a Ukrainian missile strike, although the Russians deny that and attribute its current problems to an ammunition explosion, and is being withdrawn from service for repairs, maybe.

The Moskva.

It could be worse than that, as it is admitted the ship capsized.  Assuming it is still afloat, it could be perhaps righted, or perhaps towed, but this is a major Russian loss.  The Russian Navy reported it sinking.

The Moskva was the ship which Ukrainian border guards on Snake Island told to the new famous line, "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" ("Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй").

Two Neptune missiles apparently struck the ship, with the same being launched from a Bayraktar TB2 drone.  The Neptune is a Ukrainian designed missile that just entered service last year.  The drone is a highly effective Turkish designed and manufactured pilotless aircraft.

The 40-year-old ship had been built for the Soviet Navy and was regarded as heavily armored.  The Ukrainian missile strike on it suggest that no Russian ship is safe from attack, meaning that while the Russian navy is obviously free to dominate the surface of the Black Sea, its effective control of it is contested at this point, a significant factor given the Russian strategy of taking the southeastern Ukrainian coast.

Yesterday was also the date of first issuance of a Ukrainian postage stamp dedicated to the men on Snake Island, depicting a border guard giving a Russian ship the middle finger salute.


The strike on the Moskva yesterday was either the height of irony, or exceedingly well planned and executed, given the date.   The Moskva appeared on the stamp.

April 14, cont.

And the Moskva sank.

April 16, 2022

Russia demanded that nations quit supplying weapons to Ukraine and vaguely threatened severe consequences if they do not.

Ukraine's president speculated that Russia may use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

There are concerns that the Moskva may have housed nuclear weapons.

Ukrainians report that Russia failed to mobilize 26,000 reservists who evaded service to avoid being in the war.

Pope Francis proposed having Ukrainian and Russian families together in Good Friday services, which brought objections from Ukrainians mad at the implied suggestion of reconciliation, which of course it was.  Services were modified at the Stations of the Cross so that a Russian woman and a Ukrainian women jointly held the cross at the 13th Station.

All of this brought objections from the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, part of the Catholic Church, and the Latin Rite in Ukraine in varying tones.  The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church called the actions "untimely". A Latin Rite bishop termed them incomprehensible.  They were neither, but it does show how views have evolved rapidly in Ukraine.

April 17, 2022

Russian Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov was killed in action, the eight Russian general to lose his life in the Russian assault on Ukraine.

April 18, 2022

While it will take some time to sort out, it appears that Russia has launched a largescale offensive in the east.

April 19, 2022

Reports are forthcoming of a large Russian offensive in the East, but details are so far fairly lacking.

Here's the situation map as of April 11, a little over a week ago:

April 11, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW &amp; Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

And here's the current one.

April 18, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW &amp; Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

Over the past week, the Ukrainian position in the East actually improved slightly.

One place where things have improved in an existential sense is Mariupol, where a remnant of Ukrainiain forces is still hanging on in spite of Russian surrender demands.

April 19, cont.

Russian actions in the Battle of the Donbas so far have been limited, but are expected to increase. The Ukrainian city of Kreminna has apparently been taken by the Russians.

April 20, 2022

NPR's State of Ukraine blog for this morning featured retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges.

The interview was surprising.  In it, Hodges expressed optomism regarding the Ukrainian effort, and also discussed how the Seige of Mariupol demonstrated Russian ineptitude.  He predicted the collapse of the Russian Federation within the next five years.

April 21, 2022

Coat of Arms for Mariupol.

Russian gains yesterday were minor. That's being attributed to probing, but there are other possible explanations.  Mariupol still hadn't fallen.

Russia has publically declared that it will not storm the steel works where the defenders are holding out.  Why Putin made this order public is subject to debate, but storming it would result in an outsized Russian loss and make the steel works, which has already taken on the character of the famed tractor works of Stalingrad, a Ukrainian symbol beyond that already obtained by the long and heroic defense.

Germany and the US are providing howitzers to Ukraine, with the Germans providing highly advanced 155 self propelled howitzers and the US providing 155 towed howitzers.  Training of Ukrainian artillerymen is taking place outside of the country, in Europe.

One of the things of note here is that this means NATO powers are providing heavy weapons that are in NATO standard ammunition sizes, not Warsaw Pact sizes. They'll require Western logistical support to keep them in action.  Additionally, this means Ukraine's military is now converting to NATO standards by default.

NATO logistical support has returned 20 Ukrainian aircraft to operational support.

Russia is planning political purges of its allies in the breakaway Donbas region for failing to produce military results.  There are reports that it also is planning on conscripting Ukrainians for front line service, which will be a mistake if true.  Libyan mercenaries are showing up in action, and in the Russian war dead.

A group of Ortodox bishops in communion with Moscow has demanded that Patriarch Kirill resign.  The Patriarch has made statements supporting the Russian invasion which has angered elements of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine which retained communion with the Russian Orthodox Church.

The Russian Orthodox Church itself severed communion with the Greek Orthodox Metropolitan, who is regarded as being essentially the head of the Eastern Orthodox Church in some ways.  This occured before the war when the Metropolitan recognized the Ukranian Orthodox Church as autocephalous.  Since the start of the war the elements of Orthodoxy that had remained loyal to the Patriarch of Moscow have been rapidly moving away from Patriarch Kirill, who has already declared some of them to be in schism.

This has all brought into sharp focus some contemporary problems in Orthodoxy.  The Russian Orthodox Church is the largest Orthodox Church, but here its head has seemingly been distinctly Russian.  In the West, the Orthodox are moving away from national associations, recognizing that the day of national churches has essentially passed.  In Ukraine, there have been calls for Kirill to condemn the invasion, which he has failed to do.  This has revived notations that there are indications that Patriarch Kirill had an active KGB affiliation during the days of the Soviet Union, as did his predacessor Patriarch Alexy, the latter of which acknowledged that he had made compromises during the Soviet days that he thought necessary.  Patriarch Alexy had asked for forgiveness, but Patriarch Kirill has not.  The affiliation, to be clear, seems to have been in the case of churchmen of keeping the church in line so as to not become a threat to the state.

April 23, 2022

A Russian general made comments about the war providing access to Transnistria, a breakaway portion of Moldova, which have been widely interpreted as suggesting that this is the next stage of a Russian armed expansion, but careful analysis of it suggests that this is likely being misinterpreted.

Still, as I've noted here before, if I lead Moldova right now, which is Romanian in culture, I'd be petitioning Romania for annexation.  Moldova only exists apart from Romania as Russia insists that it must.

The general did state that Russia wants to take full control of southern Ukraine.

A possible mass grave near Mariupol containg as many as 9,000 bodies was discovered through satellite imagry.

April 24, 2022

Contrary to what I'd guessed, and contrary to all military logic, Russian troops withdrawn from northern Ukraine are being redeployedin the East without rest, reorganization or refitting.

April 24, cont.

Two more Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine and a third wounded.

April 25, 2022

Ukraine hit Russian oil storage facilities today in Bryansk, Russia with drones.  The strikes occured twelve hours ago and fires are still burning.

While it has not drawn much attention, the Russians have suffered a series of odd accidents in their infrastructure over the last few days.

April 26, 2022

The war in Ukraine is taking on a long range target characteristic.  Russia hit feul and transportation targets with missles yesterday.  Ukraine hit feul targets inside of Russia with something.

Something has been going on sabatogue wise inside of Russia as well. All sorts of industrial and transportation facilities have been suffering unexplained failures.

Ukrainian forces retaken territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum.

Acts of sabatogue against Russian related targets have been going on inside Transdniestria, the region of Moldova that broke away in support of, in essence, rejoining Russia.  Attacking Moldova was referenced by a Russian general recently.  Moldova convened its security council after a Russian language radio tower was attacked yesterday.

Gepard antiaricraft armor is being sent to Ukraine by Germany.

April 27, 2022

The Institute for the Study of War regards teh attacks in Transdniestria as Russian or Russian sympathetic false flag operations.  Their speculation is that it has something to possibly do with an intended Russian attack on Odessa.

The Russians are cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, both of which have refused to pay in rubles.  Poland has indicated that it has been working on an alternative supply of gas for years and its not concerned.

April 29, 2022

Russia is protecting its Black Sea ports from threats of underwater, probably frogmen, attacks with trained dolphins.

Russia has been attacking Kyiv with rockets.

The Canadian House of Commons declared Russia to be guilty of genocide.

May 2, 2022

Russia has begun to transition areas they occupy to the Ruble, an almost certain sign that they intend to incorporate them or to set up sham states.

Nancy Pelosi and Congressional Democrats were in Kyiv yesterday.

May 4, 2022

A Ukrainian offensive has pushed the Russians 40 km back from Kharkiv.

May 5, 2022

May 5, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW &amp; Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

We posted the map today as it depicts the result of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the stalled nature of Russian offensives.  The Ukrainians have not been gaining much ground, but they are gaining ground. The Russians are not.

May 7, 2022

A Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground and my push the Russians outside of artillery striking distance of the city shortly.

The Ukrainians hit the Russian ship Admiral Makarov with an anti-shipping missle.

May 8, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

May 8, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW &amp; Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

The Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv is gaining ground, with the Russians blowing down bridges as they retreat.

There are very strong indicators that the Russian government is set to make a series of declarations tomorrow on "Victory Day", the day commemorating the victory over Germany in World War Two.  What these will be is not yet clear, but it seems clear that something will occur. Something almost has to given the place the day holds in Russian culture.

Afghanistan

The Taliban have returned to the policy of requiring all women in the country to wear burkas if possilbe, or at least wear clothing that reveals only their eyes.

That serves, of course, as a clear indicator the direciton the country is headed towards, or rather back towards.

May 10, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Contrary to expectations, Russia's May 9 Victory Day was not marked by anything particularly noteworthy coming from Russia.

Reports now indicate that Russian troops are disobeying the orders of their officers and are firing on the tires of their own vehicles to prevent them from going into combat.

President Biden signed a Lend Lease law into effect.

May 11, 2022

Finland's coat of arms.

For the first time since 1945, Finland will abandon neutrality and join an alliance, that alliance being NATO.

This is a huge change in Finland's position and indeed in European strategic alignment.

May 13, 2022

The Russians are reportedly using semiconductors from kitchen appliances in military equipment now, as they have run out of an adequate supply of them due to sanctions.

Current Ukrainian offensive operations appear calculated to split Russian forces in Ukraine in two, basically right down the middle of their occupation.  Reports hold that the Ukrainians have deployed new French acquired artillery in this effort.

A Russian soldier has appeared in a Ukrainian court on charges of war crimes.

Senator Rand Paul, a libertarian and fiscal conservative, has pushed Ukraine's military aid package that is presently in Congress into next week through a procedural move, essentially making himself the modern equivalent of America First Charles Lindbergh in a way.  Paul, it might be noted, has endorsed Wyoming candidate Harriet Hageman, although his endorsement has been pretty much ignored locally.

Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin has indicated that supplying arms to Ukraine is morally legitimate under the Catholic Just War theory, albeit with the conditions of proportionality applying.  Pope Francis has been very critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has discussed the war with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill.  Indeed, that became news when Pope Francis stated that he had told the Patriarch to quit being "Putin's alter boy", which caused the Patriarch to give an alternative account of their discussion.

May 16, 2022

Ukranian troops advancing east from Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.

Russian losses have been so severe that it depleted its reserve manpower pool and is now making up replacement units by putting together depleted elements of other units, including private military companies.  It's even resorted to putting paratroopers into depleted contract military companies, indicating a severe manpower crisis.

McDonald's is selling its stores in Russia and leaving the country.

Sweden will also be petitioning to join NATO, abandoning a position of neutrality held since the Napoleonic Wars.

May 17, 2022

Ukraine was allowed to evacuate its remaining forces from the Azoz steel plant in Mariupol, a remarkable concession from the Russians, who simply could not take it.  This means, of course, that the Russians have finally taken Mariupol, which was a goal they have been working on nearly the entire war.

They will now attempt to reopen the port.

The British estimate that the Russians have lost 1/3d of their combat capacity in the war so far.  By some independent analysis, they will be completely exhausted within thirty days.  As the country is not without enemies, of its own making, it's an open question if they'll seek to make use of the destruction of the Russian army at some point.

Turkey has indicated it does not support the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO due to both countries' past harboring of Kurdish separatists.

Russian military bloggers, which up to now have been acting as apologists for the Russian army, have suddenly changed their tune and are reporting the army defeated.  What impact this has in Russia itself is yet to be seen, but just like in the West, the country has a community of amateur military analysts who follow military affairs.  The fact that they're not reporting critically on the performance of the Russian army and that it has been defeated in combat will  have some sort of impact, up until they are shut down, which is probable.

Russian authorities are now in conflict with Russian collaborationist in some of the areas they occupy.

May 18, 2022

Ukraine announced it has downed 200 Russian aircraft in the war.  Russian aircraft now often launch their weaons over Russian airspace rather than enter Ukrainian territory.

In a report Russian soldiers reported a commanding officer shooting his own non ambulatory wounded rather than try to move them.

Last Prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Four


Related threads:

Russo Ukrainian War Threads.