Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 4. The GBU-57A/B MOP Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.


GBU-57A/B MOP
You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way. 
Will Rogers.
We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.
Donald Trump.

We find ourselves with another predictive entry.

Yesterday, June 17, was an extremely odd day.  Trump left the G7 meeting austensibly to deal with the war between Israel and Iran, but notably before the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine came up.

Trump, of course, had promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia upon being nominated to the Oval Office.

He lied.

Since that time, he's been an enthusiastic supporter if Israel's ongoing war in Gaza and, as of yesterday, was indicating that the US saved the life of Iran's Supreme Leader, but the US may decide to kill the de facto Iranian head of state itself, something that nations generally do not do and which frankly would make Trump fair game in the eyes of Iranian radicals.  Trump might finally get a first hand taste of being the enemy the way he did not in the 1960s.

Threatening to murder, and that's exactly what it would be, the head of a state of a foreign country is moronic, as well as deeply immoral.

It appears that Mike Huckabee, whom Trump stupidly appointed as the American Ambassador to Israel, has Trump's ear, which is dangerous.  Huckabee sent a weird missive to Trump yesterday or the day before which Trump praised and reposted.  Huckabee is a Christian Zionist/Millennialist Restorationist who seeks to help bring about the Second Coming by advancing the cause of Israel.  A minority branch of Protestantism, which itself is a minority of Christians, there's likely nothing Israel could do that Huckabee won't back. He's basically backing the United States entering the war against Iran.

The reason that Israel would want that to occur is depicted above.  Israel is attempting to end the Iranian nuclear program, and perhaps achieve much more, from the air.  By now it's probably clear that it can't do that without use of a GBU-57A/B MOP, assuming that could even do it.  The GBU-57A/B MOP is the worlds' largest deep penetration bunker buster bomb, and it might, but only might, be able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

Only one airplane in the world right now can carry the GBU-57A/B MOP, that being the B-2 bomber.  The B-52 can also carry then, but none are currently set up to do so. The B-2 can carry two.

And it's highly probable that they've asked the US to deploy them for this purpose.

And fairly probable the US will do so.

June 18, 2025

Israel v. Iran
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Israel claimed Tuesday to have killed a top Iranian general as it traded more strikes with its longtime foe, and U.S. President Donald Trump warned residents of Tehran to evacuate while demanding that Iran surrender without conditions.
From the AP.

On the above, there's a pretty good chance that Trump feels that acting like he's going to attack Iran is going to convince Iran to enter some sort of bargain.  Iran is pretty hard to intimidate.

Also, there's a good chance that Trump will TACO the moment and suddenly declare he achieved something, once he thinks over the consequences of attacking Iran, or once clearer heads than Mike Huckabee's get to him.  Not that I want him to attack Iran.  I think that would be stupid.

If the latter occurs, Trump's loyal fans will claim that he was the master negotiator, but I doubt Israel will quit pounding Iran, and that Iran will quit responding.  Israel has the upper hand right now, but it's extremely difficult to win a war only through the air, and Israel has no ability to deploy ground forces against Iran. For that matter, Iran's neighbors likely wouldn't tolerate that.  It's an impossibility, however.  Air wars degrade over time as targets reduce or become less vulnerable, and Israel is unlikely to be able to protect itself from missile strikes indefinitely.

June 19, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Iran hit Israel with a ballistic missile carrying a cluster munition warhead hitting, amongst other things the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva.

Donald Trump is weirdly claiming that he'll take two weeks to decide if the US will enter the war, which a competent leader would not announce, even if contemplating it.

Legally entering the war would require a Declaration of War, which won't be occurring and a bare minimum the War Powers Act should come into play.

June 22, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

The US hit Iranian nuclear targets yesterday.  Trump's speech on the same:

Thank you very much.

A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive, precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime. Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise.

Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.

Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.

For 40 years, Iran has been saying. Death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East, and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate in particular. So many were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.

I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.

Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan 'Razin' Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.

With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.

 And I want to just thank everybody. And, in particular, God. I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.

The legality of this is really questionable, as is the wisdom, and effectiveness, of it.  And the development of the US openly taking a part in a Middle Eastern War, started by Israel, on behalf of Israel, is a dangerous development.  The US has never done that before.

As war is an extension of politics by other means, and all politics is local:

June 23, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

Since the US B-2 missions (which were impressively flown out of Missouri in the longest bombing mission of all time), there have global reactions to the strike, some of which praised it.  It's clear that European nations generally support them.

Russia issued a statement in which it condemned them and indicated that now other nations may transfer nuclear weapons to Iran.  How much Russia can be trusted in regard to anything it states is a clearly open question, but being concerned about this possibility, particularly as Pakistan is nearby, is perhaps merited.  Likewise, being concerned about what rogue state North Korea may do is also warranted.

Iran itself has indicated that it will close the Straits of Hormuz and that it will otherwise retaliate.

The morality of this action is debatable and interesting.  It's clearly an act of war with no clear exist strategy based on the hope of Iranian concession.  However, the argument can be made that waiting until Iran had a nuclear weapon, which they are clearly working on, would put the world in an untenable position.  

That it is an act of war was interestingly noted when a Congressman on This Week said Iran could "sue for peace".  You only sue for peace in a declared war, which this is not.

A group of Congressmen have put together a war powers resolution seeking to limit further US action.  It's all Democrats save for one Republican.  If history is our guide, politically most Americans will support action against Iran, at least at first.  If things drag on, they'll be discontented.  In the short term condemning the strike is probably a bad political move, but in the long term it might not be.  If Iran is not cowed into submission, and perhaps its regime can't afford to be, we'll either have to materially support an ongoing Iranian air war indefinitely or become more involved in it.  People repeatedly are noting that there will not be "boots on the ground", and there very likely won't be on a largescale, but on a small scale there may very well be.  If Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz the U.S. Navy will have to reopen them, and that will be a major task.

cont:

Yeoman's Fourth Law of History at work, and Donald Trump demonstrating that he doesn't know how economies work.

June 24, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

On the Iranian retaliation, which was muted:

Update Video: Iran “Retaliates.” It appears to be over.

Apparently a cease fire has been agreed to, although there may have been some post agreement fighting.

A ceasefire isn't a peace agreement. What's going on, and what was achieved, are the real questions.

And of course, Trump is acting weird.


And this:

We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

Donald Trump.

June 24, 2024

United States and Israel v. Iran.

An early assessment holds that Iran's nuclear facilities were not destroyed, only damages, and they're merely set back in the production of an atomic weapon a few months.

Can't say I'm surprised.

So the US attack may have simply reinforced the Iranian desire for a nuclear weapon.

cont:

A report by an expert on NPR Politics holds that there's no way that Iran's nuclear program was destroyed.

Last edition:

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 3. The peace didn't break out on day one edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


In peace, sons bury their fathers. In war, fathers bury their sons. 

Herodotus.

May 12, 2025

Turkey v. The Kurds.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PPK, announced that it will disband and disarm after forty years of conflict.

May 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump posted the following yesterday:

I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever. I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia! Likewise, President Zelenskyy is doing his Country no favors by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop. This is a War that would never have started if I were President. This is Zelenskyy’s, Putin’s, and Biden’s War, not “Trump’s,” I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred.

More and more it's impossible not simply regard Trump as stupid.

June 1, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine pulled off a sort of scaled down Pearl Harbor, or Battle of Taranto, or perhaps attack on Port Arthur today/yesterday by mounting a major drone attack on Russia air assets inside of  Russia itself.

The drones were  smuggled into Russia and launched from cabin launchers in what will go down as one of the most successful clandestine internal actions of all time.  At least 40 Russian aircraft were destroyed on the ground.

June 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's security service, the SBU, struck the Crimean Bridge with underwater explosives, damaging the structure.

June 8, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Donald Trump has federalized some units of the California National Guard and ordered them to Los Angeles in response to violent immigration protests there.

A President federalizing a Guard unit ab initio like this is very unusual.

June 9, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Absolutely nuts:

Press Release | June 9, 2025

USNORTHCOM statement on additional military personnel in the Los Angeles Area

U.S. Northern Command Public Affairs

PETERSON SPACE FORCE BASE, Colo. – U.S. Northern Command has activated the Marine infantry battalion that was placed in an alert status over the weekend. Approximately 700 Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division will seamlessly integrate with the Title 10 forces under Task Force 51 who are protecting federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area. 

The activation of the Marines is intended to provide Task Force 51 with adequate numbers of forces to provide continuous coverage of the area in support of the lead federal agency. 

Task Force 51 is U.S. Army North’s Contingency Command Post, which provides a rapidly deployable capability to partner with civil authorities and DoD entities in response to a Homeland Defense and Homeland Security Operations. It is commanded by Maj. Gen. Scott M. Sherman.  

Task Force 51 is comprised of approximately 2,100 National Guard soldiers in a Title 10 status and 700 active-duty Marines. Task Force 51 forces have been trained in de-escalation, crowd control, and standing rules for the use of force. 

 June 10, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Trump is doubling the size of the California National Guard deployment to Los Angeles.

June 11, 2025

US Civil Unrest

Californian National Guardsmen found their role expanded to protecting immigration agents as they made arrests in Los Angeles.

My guess is that this is going to be a long deployment, or that the Courts will find the this use illegal rapidly.

The deployment of military forces to California is costing the US $134,000,000.

Wyoming's Congressman predictably came down on the side of Donald Trump:

Hageman Blasts Newsom For Putting ‘Rioters Over The Side Of Law And Order’

Texas, not the United States, has deployed the Texas Army National Guard to Austin in advance of anticipated ICE raids there.

June 13, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Israel launched what are being termed "massive" air attacks against Iran's nuclear program and military command structure.  Initial reports are that the raid were highly successful.

US Civil Unrest

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled the Trump's direct Guard deployment was illegal, violating the Tenth Amendment and exceeding Trump’s statutory authority.  An appeals court stayed enforcement of the order upon review.

cont:

Israel v. Iran

The Israeli attack expanded today to nuclear installations.  Operation Rising Lion also took out a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps figures.

Iran is presently attempting to retaliate with missles.

June 14, 2025

US Civil Unrest

The Governor of Missouri activated his state's National Guard in advance of today's protests.

June 17, 2025

Israel v. Iran


Cont:


"We"?

"Sky trackers"?

"Stuff"?

Cont:  



Apparently Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender".

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 2. The world is not a development opportunity edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

Winston Churchill

Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.

Donald Trump on skipping the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery.

March 2, 2025

Turkey v. Kurds

Following an opening from Turkey's strongman ruler Erdogan, the PKK is suspending armed operations.

US Mexican Border

The US is deploying an additional 3,000 troops to the Mexican border.

March 3, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Hegseth Orders Pentagon to Stop Offensive Cyberoperations Against Russia

Absolutely stupid.

US v. Al Qaeda

On Feb. 23, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a precision airstrike in Northwest Syria, targeting and killing Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, the senior military leader of the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din (HaD), an Al-Qaeda affiliate.

US Central Command.

March 4, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The US suspended military aid to Ukraine.  Europe began immediately to fill in and J. D. Vance warned, based on nothing at all, that only Trump could negotiate peace.

More likely, this accelerates the eclipse of the United States.

March 6, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Trump Cabal cut off intelligence access to Ukraine.  Shortly after this, Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles.

March 8, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

When his country called, Donald Trump called up his doctor who found that he ineligible to go into harms way due to shin splints.  

Like a lot of the 1960s "not me" crowd, to include Dick Cheney and Joe Biden, this hasn't meant, in the case of Donald Trump, that he doesn't mind ordering killing done. Trump's taken into almost new territory, however, by withdrawing intelligence from an ally dependent up on us while his political party, which once stalwartly opposed foreign aggression by countries like Russia and North Korea, largely stands by.

The United States now has blood on its hands, and through betrayal:

US intel ban leads to heavy Ukrainian losses

A lot of people who admire Trump believe he has a big business head and that he's bring this to politics.  Why this is a good thing is never actually mentioned. Government isn't a business.  Beyond that, is Trump really a good businessman?  We have very little evidence that the is.  What we have evidence that he was born very wealthy and its well known that those born into great wealth are highly unlikely to lose it all.  Very wealthy families that do lose everything usually do so in the course of a couple of generations.  It takes that long to dissipate the wealth.  My guess is that this is happening to the Trump fortune right now.  Big fortunes are lost through classic means, spending on largess and women usually.  My guess is that for those who are looking at the trump's fifty to seventy five years hence, you'll find that they're still rich, but not vastly so, and probably working mundane rich people's jobs.

Anyhow, one of the big myths about Trump is that he's a great negotiator . What he is, is a bully.  Since returning to the Oval Office he's applied his bully skills to numerous things and its really start to fail.  The tariffs are a good example.  Canada has now reached the complete "fuck you" stage with Trump and he can't do one single thing about it.  Probably by summer the Mid West will have rolling blackouts due to an electrical blackout. The dimwit Trump has promised to get the XL pipeline rolling again and build one extending all the way to Alaska.  My prediction is that the XL if completed under Trump will be filled with air as it was supposed to transport Canadian crude.  Donny probably doesn't know that.  The Canadians are never going to allow the US to build a pipeline on their soil.

On the war, Ukrainian President Zylensky was brought to the US to surrender title to his country's minerals as an extorted payment for ongoing support.  The meeting went famously wrong as J. D. Vance, now with in a hairsbreadth of being President, showed himself way out of his element and engaged in an argument with the embattled Ukrainian leader.  Trump, coming to Vance's rescue, once again showed his intellect is really lacking and his verbal skills are that of a child.  Since that time, using tactics that he learned as a real estate magnate, he's attempted to bully Ukraine into submission by withholding arms and intelligence to the country.  

In blunt terms, he figures that getting Ukrainians killed will make them pliant.

It's monstrously wrong.

And its not even artful.

There's pretty good evidence at this point that the bloom is really off the rose of this administration and that even within the administration itself things are beginning to breakdown.  Marco Rubio got into a yelling match with weirdo Elon Musk and actually prevailed.  Another cabinet member had to take babbling Trump off the phone and negotiate a deal with Trudeau himself.  Trump is slowly on his way out, but how much damage he does on the way out is yet to be seen.

At any rate, somewhere on the far side of things thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are joining the souls of those of the Army of the Republic of Vietnam to lament being betrayed by the United States.  But at the same time, the departed spirits of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger can take solace that their betrayal of an ally wasn't the work of a demented toddler.

Here in the US, the hardcore MAGA's are all saying it'll work out, or coming up with reason why betrayal is okay.  It won't, and it isn't.

March 13, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia rejected lil Don's suggestion of a cease fire.

March 16, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The US struck the Houthis yesterday, who vowed retaliation.

March 17, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Hegseth Says Campaign Against Houthis Will be 'Unrelenting' Until Hostilities Cease

March 17, 2025 | By Matthew Olay

During a media interview yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. military will continue to tactically engage Iranian-backed Houthis until they stop acting aggressively against U.S. ships in the region.

Hegseth commented on the topic following President Donald J. Trump's order for U.S. Central Command to launch multiple airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen, March 15, 2025. 

"Freedom of navigation is basic; it's a core national interest," Hegseth said, adding that the current campaign is about restoring deterrents in the region in addition to freedom of navigation. 

"The minute the Houthis say, 'We'll stop shooting at your ships [and] we'll stop shooting at your drones,' this campaign will end but, until then, it will be unrelenting," he continued. 

Hegseth also said the airstrikes were meant to draw Iran's attention. 

"The message is clear to Iran … Your support of the Houthis needs to end immediately. We will hold you accountable as the sponsor of this proxy, and I echo [the president's] statement [that] we will not be nice about it," Hegseth said.

The Houthis have been acting aggressively in the Red Sea region since October 2023, when a U.S. Navy destroyer had to intercept three land-attack cruise missiles fired by the Houthis toward Israel. 

Since then, the Houthis have launched over 100 drone and missile attacks targeting American and allied ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, resulting in many commercial ships having to alter their routes to avoid the region at a tremendous commercial cost. 

Hegseth likened the severe economic impact of the Houthi aggression in the region to "being held hostage by a terrorist organization" and then pointed out that the Trump administration has indeed labeled the Houthis as such. 

"To the Houthis: [the airstrikes weren't] a one-night thing … This is about stopping the shooting at assets in that critical waterway to reopen the freedom of navigation, which is a core national interest of the United States," Hegseth said, before again reemphasizing that Iran needs to "back off" from enabling the Houthis. 

Hegseth said Iran and its additional military proxies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — are in a "weakened state." 

"But it doesn't mean they still don't have the desire [for aggression]," he said, adding that Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. 

"Iran must get that clear message and negotiate the end of their pursuit for nuclear weapons because … President Trump has said clearly that they will not get a bomb," Hegseth said.

March 19, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Israel is back to bombarding Gaza, so the cease fire did not hold.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin agreed to an infrastructure ceasefire, which it turned around and immediately violated.

cont:

Israel has launched a new ground invasion into Gaza after breaking ceasefire

March 23, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The rocket and counterstrike feature of this war in Lebanon has returned.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has hit some major Russian air assets and fuel assets in the last couple of days.  Russia had hit Kyiv.

March 24, 2025

The world found out shortly before 2 p.m. eastern time on March 15 that the United States was bombing Houthi targets across Yemen.

I, however, knew two hours before the first bombs exploded that the attack might be coming. The reason I knew this is that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m. The plan included precise information about weapons packages, targets, and timing.

This is going to require some explaining.

The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans.  Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic.

March 25, 2025

Middle Eastern War

The Trump administration petulantly denied texting war plans to The Atlantic, while insulting the recipient, while it simultaneously became more obvious that in fact it had occurred.

The US hit Houthi targets in Yemen again.

March 30, 2025

It's been a bad week, foreign policy wise, for the supposed great negotiator, Donald Trump.

United States v. Iran

In a press interview today Donald Trump threated to bomb Iran to the hilt if it does not enter into a nuclear deal with the United States.

Iran has replied it won't enter into direct talks with the US, but might be willing to discuss this matter in some other fashion.

Russo Ukrainian War

The great dealmaker also expressed frustration, or rather that he was "pissed off", with Putin, accusing him of lying and not wanting a peace.

Apparently Trump is the last guy on Earth who didn't already know this, besides flunky sycophants.

He's threating secondary tariffs.

Middle Eastern War.

Revealed on the leaked texts VP Vance was concerned that Trump didn't understand what the bombing.  He said:

3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does. There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, to send a message.

I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.

April 2, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel has announced its intends to seize "large" areas of land in Gaza. 

April 8, 2025

Israel v. Hamas

Israel now controls, once again, 50% of Gaza.

Russo Ukrainian War

ISW reports that  Russian advances have slowed to a crawl.

April 13, 2025

Mexican Border

Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

Presidential Memoranda

April 11, 2025

NATIONAL SECURITY PRESIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM/NSPM-4

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

               THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR

               THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

               THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY

SUBJECT:      Military Mission for Sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions

As the Chief Executive and Commander in Chief, the United States Constitution empowers me to direct the various elements of the executive branch to protect our homeland and ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the United States in the manner I deem most efficient and effective, consistent with applicable law.  Our southern border is under attack from a variety of threats.  The complexity of the current situation requires that our military take a more direct role in securing our southern border than in the recent past.  Through Executive Order 14167 of January 20, 2025 (Clarifying the Military’s Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States), I assigned the Armed Forces of the United States the military missions of repelling the invasion and sealing the United States southern border from unlawful entry to maintain the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.  This memorandum provides additional guidance on securing the southern border to the heads of certain executive departments. 

Section 1.  Policy. (a) to accomplish the military missions described in Executive Order 14167, and to ensure the safety and security of the military and other Federal personnel in areas of military operations within Federal lands along the southern border, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall take all appropriate actions:

(i)    to provide for the use and jurisdiction by the Department of Defense over such Federal lands, including the Roosevelt Reservation and excluding Federal Indian Reservations, that are reasonably necessary to enable military activities directed in this memorandum, including border-barrier construction and emplacement of detection and monitoring equipment; and

(ii)   to provide for transfer and acceptance of jurisdiction over such Federal lands in accordance with applicable law to enable military activities directed in this memorandum to occur on a military installation under the jurisdiction of the Department of Defense and for the designation of such Federal lands as National Defense Areas by the Secretary of Defense.

(b)  The Secretary of the Interior shall allow the Secretary of Defense to use those portions of the Roosevelt Reservation not yet transferred or withdrawn under this memorandum. In accordance with Proclamation 10886 of January 20, 2025 (Declaring a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States), 43 U.S.C. 155 is hereby invoked and the Secretary of the Interior may make withdrawals, reservations, and restrictions of public lands to provide for the utilization of public lands by the Department of Defense to address the emergency at the southern border, without regard to any limitation on withdrawals otherwise applicable under the terms of the Engle Act, 43 U.S.C. 155-158.

(c)  The Secretary of Defense may determine those military activities that are reasonably necessary and appropriate to accomplish the mission assigned in Executive Order 14167 and that are necessary to protect and maintain the security of military installations, consistent with section 2672 of title 10, United States Code, and the longstanding authority of a military installation commander to exclude persons from a military installation, as recognized in section 21 of the Internal Security Act of 1950 (50 U.S.C. 797) and 18 U.S.C. 1382.

(d)  In carrying out activities under this memorandum, members of the Armed Forces will follow rules for the use of force prescribed by the Secretary of Defense.

Sec. 2.  Phased Implementation. The Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Interior, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of Homeland Security will initially implement this memorandum on a limited sector of Federal lands designated by the Secretary of Defense.  Within 45 days of the date of this memorandum, the Secretary of Defense shall assess this initial phase.  At any time, the Secretary of Defense may extend activities under this memorandum to additional Federal lands along the southern border in coordination with the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President and Homeland Security Advisor, and other executive departments and agencies as appropriate.

Sec. 3.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this memorandum shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)    the authority of the Secretary of Defense to authorize and request that State Governors order members of the National Guard under authority of title 32 of the United States Code to conduct Department of Defense activities, including as appropriate to support law enforcement activities under the responsibility of the Attorney General or the Secretary of Homeland Security, if requested by such official;

(ii)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(iii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This memorandum shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This memorandum is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

                               DONALD J. TRUMP

April 18, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US is about to give up attempting to broker a peace in the Ruisso Ukrainian War.

Apparently his boss, the great deal maker, and friend of thug Putin, isn't as effective at deal making as he claimed.

April 23, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians and it’s time for them to either say ‘yes’ or for the United States to walk away from this process.

J. D. Vance.

So much for Trump's negotiating skills.

April 26, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the war in private in the Sistine Chapel, before Pope Francis' funeral.

April 27, 2025

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are asserting they have expelled all Ukrainian troops from the Kursk oblast.

May 3, 2025

Mexican Border

The administration declared a  "Texas National Defense Area" spanning 63 miles east of El Paso along the Texas-New Mexico border, following having declared a similar 170-mile-long zone created in New Mexico last month.

May 6, 2025

India v. Pakistan

India launched airstrikes inside of Pakistan on sites its alleges are terrorist locations.  This follows a recent terrorist attack in India.

May 7, 2025

Middle Eastern War

Trump is claiming the Houthis capitulated in the face of US and UK bombing raids and will cease attacking shipping.

May 8, 2025

India v. Pakistan

Pakistan is claiming that a very large scale air battle took place between India and Pakistan over the past 24 hours.

May 10, 2025

India v. Pakistan

Pakistan strikes Indian bases with Fatah missiles

Cont:

Both contestants have agreed to a ceasefire, after having run right up to the brink of full scale war.

Donald Trump implied the US had a role in this, although its not at all clear that this is really the case.

And with this entry, this edition of Wars and Rumors of War concludes.

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Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 1. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Britain, Germany Issue Emergency Guidance


I'm not a "prepper", and frankly I tend to find preppers a bit amusing.  But when European governments that are a lot more sane than the gerontocracy running the United States right now start issuing war warnings and commence telling their populations how to prepare for war, well, it's at least taking some noted of.


Both Germany and the UK, both of which are not afflicted by wackadoodle administrations like ours currently is, have done so:

Britain, Germany Issue Emergency Guidance




By the way, in the fever dream of Republican Washington D.C. right now, while Trump dreams of tariffs in his sleep solving all the nations ills, while the GOP also is about to pass a renewal of the Trump tax reductions, thereby guaranteeing, in the real world, a massively increased deficit, there's a plan to pass a $1Trillion defense budget.

$1Trillion.


Trump preached peace in his campaign like a flower child in 1968.

But he's proposing a defense budget like it's 1964.

What gives?

It's hard to know what Trump really things about anything.  What is clear is that we've been headed towards war with China for at least half a decade and the Trump administration is pushing us much closer.  Somebody in the Administration is preparing for that war.

20th Kansaas at Caloocan, 1899. They're carrying obsolete trapdoor Springfield rifles and wearing obsolescent blue wool shirts.

By the way, when McKinley, Trump's hero, who ended up regretting his tariff policy, was President the size of the U.S. Army was 25,000 men, many of whom were poor immigrants, and a lot of whom were poorly equipped.  In spite of McKinley being forced into the Spanish American War against his instincts and desires, the US didn't really expect to be fighting any wars in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries and so it relied upon a tiny Army, a more substantial and much more well equipped Navy, and state militias, which had not quite become the modern National Guard.  The thought was that if any big emergency came up, the states could always fill the manpower gaps, which is exactly what occurred during the Spanish American War.  It's also what occured in the Philippine Insurrection which is in part what made the effort in the Philippines extreme unpopular with the public as it drug on.  Think Vietnam. . . but if Vietnam had been fought with a lot of National Guardsmen instead of just a few.

Itt was those wars, in fact, which ended the era in which the US could get buy with a tiny budget, and one that ran a surplus.  The Spanish American War changed the US from a regional power into a global one, and there's really no going back.  We shouldn't even want to go back. When Kipling wrote his horribly racist The White Man's Burden, in a certain way, that's what he meant existentially, if you strip the racism, which is difficult.  Still, the concluding lines are worth reading:
Have done with childish days— 
The lightly proffered laurel, 
    The easy, ungrudged praise. 
Comes now, to search your manhood 
    Through all the thankless years, 
Cold-edged with dear-bought wisdom, 
    The judgement of your peers. 
Trump, in real terms, seeks to take us back to the childhood of the nation, which he didn't experience, as he golfs on in his dotage.

We're all suffering as a result, and it'll get worse.  Much worse.

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