Showing posts with label War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

2024 Election Post Mortem, Part 2. What's going on?

Well of course, it's hard to tell.


November 11, 2024

And indeed, there are already those, who pollyannish like insist that maybe this time Trump will be different, and not carry through with all his claims, promises, and threats.

I listed to all three weekend shows this week, and they're well worth listening to.  For the most part, with one exception, Democrats have realized that latching on to far left social issues sank them. Even Bernie Sanders seemed to agree.  The exception really seemed clueless.

A scary former Trump ambassador to Japan seemed, now in Congress for Tennessee, seems intent on cutting off all aid to Ukraine.

Susie Wiles will be Trump's chief of staff.

On that, there are already noting how that's "historic" as she's the first woman to be appointed to that role.  No it isn't.  Frankly, once Barrack Obama was elected President most of the claimed "firsts" are really meaningless.

Trump has apparently instructed Republicans in Congress to hold up Biden judicial nominees.

cont:

And now we know the "Border Czar" will be Tom Homan, who in a recent interview with 60 Minutes, supported deporting kids who were born and raised in the US to undocumented immigrants, stating: “Families can be deported together.”

Homan had stated at a Nation Conservatism conference: "Trump comes back in January, I'll be on his heels coming back, and I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen. They ain't seen shit yet. Wait until 2025."

How charming.

cont:

Elise Stefanik has been chosen to be Ambassador to the United Nations.

November 12, 2024

Former Green Beret, Florida Republican Rep. Mike Waltz, a China hawk, will be National Security Advisor.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will head the Department of Homeland Security

Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York will run the Environmental Protection Agency.  He's expected to go after environmental regulations, and be hostile to climate policy.

Somebody, or some group, is clearly advising Trump on these picks.  But who is it?  

Marco Rubio will be Secretary of State, a position that he undoubtedly will be unable to retain throughout a second Trump administration.

Russian television, which is presumed not to run items without Putin's permission, ran nude photos of Melania Trump.  This is interesting in that Trump has a weird relationship with Putin, and you have to wonder what the message was supposed to be.

Cont:

Tom Homan:

The illegal animals coming across the border... 31% of women that make their journey get raped by criminal cartels.

Children get raped. I've talked to little girls as young as nine that have been raped multiple times.

These cartels are animals. And that's why President Trump's gonna take 'em off the face of Earth.

[Trump] will use them full might of the United States Special Operations to take 'em out.

 Trump in fact asked about doing something of this nature in his prior term.

Cont:

John Ratcliffe will serve as CIA director.

November 13, 2024

Fox news commentator Pete Hegseth, a National Guard officer, has been chosen by Trump as Secretary of Defense.

Seems like a poor choice.  Maybe even a bit of a scary one.

Former Arkansas Governor and Baptist minister Mike Huckabee, a very strong supporter of Israel, perhaps even one that might be regarded as extreme on the point, has been chosen as Ambassador to the country.

This will not be good for peace in the Middle East.  Arab Americans who abstained from voting will no reap the fruits of that action, and they'll be bitter fruits.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to something that will be called the Department of Efficiency.  I don't see this lasting.

These picks look a lot like what a lot of people expected, and feared.

Cont:

John Thune (R-S.D.) will be the next Senate Majority Leader.

Cont:  

Secretary of Defense putative nominee has apparently stated "I'm straight up just saying we should not have women in combat roles." Frankly, that's my view as well, and that view is widely shared within the military itself.  This is interesting, however, as this would normally probably be a disqualifying viewpoint.  We'll see if it had any impact on his chances of being confirmed.

We'll also see, of course, if he acts on his view.  A large number of the views Trump expressed in his 2016 campaign of this type never saw the light of day in his administration.

I actually have a long and very old draft of a post on women in combat I've never completed.  I ought to, but now I'm reluctant given that I don't want to be seen leaping on board the incoming administration's bandwagon.

Cont:

Trump has nominated Matt Gaetz to be Attorney General of the United States.

My prediction is that even the Republican Senate won't be able to stomach that.

What a joke.

November 14, 2024

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State.

Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Security.

John Barrasso, Senate Whip.

Gaetz, who was the topic of an upcoming ethics investigation, has resigned from Congress.  

Cont:

When he (Gaetz) was accused of sleeping with an underage girl, there’s a reason why no one in the conference defended him. We all saw videos he was showing us on the House floor of girls he slept with & brag how he would crush ED medicine so he could go all night.

Sen. Mullin, R. Oklahoma.

Cont:

Republican Senator John Cornyn is going to ask the House Ethics Committee to release the findings of the Matt Gaetz investigation.

Cont:

And now RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services.

With this appointment and Gaetz, Heath May put it best.  "Another day, another dumb ass"

November 15, 2024

Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior.

This is again an interesting choice.  Only 3.9% of North Dakota is Federal land.  However, users of Federal land in the West might take some cautious optimism out of this as Western politicians, completely contrary to the views of those they serve, have taken on the land grabbing mindset illustrated  by Utah's effort to grab Federal lands in court, which has been sadly supported by Wyoming.

Cont:

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson regarding the House ethics investigation report for Gaetz:

I’m going to strongly request that the Ethics Committee not issue the report.

Cont:

Governor Gordon Commends Selection of Governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior 

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement following the announcement from President Trump that North Dakota governor Doug Burgum will lead the Department of Interior.

“I congratulate my friend Doug Burgum and I commend President Trump for his selection of Governor Burgum as Secretary of the Interior. Since almost half of Wyoming’s surface land and 67% of its mineral resources are managed by the federal government, the Secretary of the Interior is integral to Wyoming’s economic well-being and future. It is good that we have a friend in that office.

Doug has a deep understanding of the importance of energy development while maintaining valuable wildlife and outdoor recreation opportunities. He and I have worked together on these issues for the past six years. We see eye-to-eye on the importance of a domestically focused, all-of-the-above energy policy for public lands and minerals. I know personally his love of the outdoors. I am confident that under his leadership, future decisions regarding land management and wildlife issues in Wyoming will not utilize a top-down, DC-driven approach, but rather be made cooperatively, with local interests at the forefront. I look forward to working with him.”

-END-


November 16, 2024

Karoline Leavitt, age 27, as press secretary.

Cont: 

Chris Wright, CEO of Denver-based Liberty Energy, secretary of the Department of Energy.

November 18, 2024

Mitch McConnell has stated there will be no recess appointments.

November 19, 2024

Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce.

Cont:

Mehmet Oz to serve as administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Truly, this is the most pathetic set of appointments, ever.

November 23, 2024

Dr. Janette Nesheiwat for Surgeon General.

Pam Bondi to replace Gaetz, who withdrew.

Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.

Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon for Secretary of Labor.

Scott Turner, for the Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

November 24, 2024

Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture.  She's a Texas A&M trained lawyer with an undergraduate in agricultural development.

Dr. Marty Makary, Food and Drug Administration commissioner.

Rep. Dave Weldon, a Republican from Florida, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Russell Vought, a co-author of Project 2025, to lead the Office of Management and Budget.

December 2, 2024

Joe Biden pardoned Hunter Biden.

cont:

Trump proposes to replace the currently serving head of the FBI, whom he appointed in the first place with Kash Patel.

This is absurd.

December 9, 2024

Trump was interviewed on Meet The Press (I guess a longer transcript of the interview is elsewhere on NBC).

While presented with a very flat aspect, Trump interestingly basically stuck with his promises, putting in some plausible deniability between himself and carrying them out.  In other words, if his political enemies are prosecuted, that's the decision of other people, he'd have it, not him.  He also left room for failure if things don't go as he promised.

He didn't back down from mass deportations, and in fact double downed on them, save for the "Dreamers", for whom he expressed a desire to find a solution.  It's pretty clear that support for Ukraine is going to be decreased.

December 10, 2024

Sen. Lummis will be on the "DOGE Caucus".

December 11, 2024

Sigh . . . 


Kimberly Guilfoyle Is Appointed Ambassador to Greece.

cont:

FBI Director Christopher Wray is going to resign at the end of the current administration.

Kerri Lake as head of Voice of America.

December 13, 2024

Mitch McConnell about indications that there may be Trump Admin vaccine dipshittery, on the polio vaccine:

Like millions of families before them, my parents knew the pain and fear of watching their child struggle with the life-altering diagnosis of polio. From the age of two, normal life without paralysis was only possible for me because of the miraculous combination of modern medicine and a mother’s love. But for millions who came after me, the real miracle was the saving power of the polio vaccine…

The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives and held out the promise of eradicating a terrible disease. Efforts to undermine public confidence in proven cures are not just uninformed — they’re dangerous. Anyone seeking the Senate’s consent to serve in the incoming Administration would do well to steer clear of even the appearance of association with such efforts.

Frankly, messing with childhood police vaccines is criminal at an epic level. 

December 21, 2024

Congressman Hageman will chair the Article One Task Force which has as its mission going after regulatory agencies in favor of Congress, based on the conservative concept that regulatory agencies have usurped Congress.

December 24, 2024

Wyoming Senator Lummis is joining the newly formed U.S. Senate caucus led by Kansas Republican Dr. Roger Marshall that will work to promote legislation in line with the agenda of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who is widely regarded as a gadfly.

Last edition:

2024 Election Post Mortem, Part I. What the heck happened?

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 8. Wider wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


There is no hunting like the hunting of man, and those who have hunted armed men long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter.

Ernest Hemingway.

August 7, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have advanced into Russia's Kursk Oblast and are in their second day of operations there.

August 8, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Rockets from northern Gaza have lead to an Israeli advisory in the area that residents should leave.

An arrest of ISIL terrorist who were plotting a strike in a European Taylor Swift concert lead to cancellation of events.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).

ISW.

August 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has declared a Federal level emergency due to the incursion near Kursk.  Ukrainian advances have been fairly extensive.

August 10, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian advances have resulted in evacuation orders being issued and the formation of some local anti government partisan units seeming to have formed.

August 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have taken the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk Oblast.

cont:

And now the Ukrainians are in Belgorod Oblast, south of Kursk Oblast, and directly north of Kharkov.

Resistance was strengthening in opposition to the offensive in Kursk, so they've side stepped it.

August 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia jailed dual US/Russian citizen ballerina  Ksenia Khavana for a $52.00 donation to a charity aiding Ukraine.

Indian has asked its citizens who live near the conflicts zones to relocated:

In view of the recent security incidents in Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions, Indian nationals are advised to take necessary precautions and relocate outside these regions.  Any Indian national or student requiring assistance may contact the embassy.

Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.  While Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in Russia, Russian forces remain on the offensive in Ukraine.

August 17, 2024

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States finalized a  trade agreement removing export barriers on defense goods and technology between them.

August 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian mercenary leader Georgy Zakrevsky has called for Putin to be removed.

August 25, 2024

ISIL v Everyone

ISIL claimed responsibility for a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight others at a claiming the murder targeted Christians and did this to avenge Muslims and Palestinians everywhere, as if doing that in Germany would make a lick of sense whatsoever.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza 

It conducted massive ones in southern Lebanon, to which Hezbollah responded with rockets.

I suspect that Israel is hitting targets heavily in advance of an anticipated cease fire.

cont:

Actually, the strike in Lebanon was a preemptive strike.

August 28, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports that Russia has lost over 600,000 men in its war with the country, of which over 180,000 were killed.

By way of a contrast, 58,220 Americans were killed in the Vietnam War.

The Russians have been advancing rapidly near Pokrovsk and are generally sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine.

September 4, 2024

China v. Taiwan

In a recent interview, the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) suggested that the People's Republic of China, rather than bothering Taiwan, ought to cast its eyes on land that it lost to Russia in the 1850s and 1860s.

If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right? You can ask Russia (for the land back) but you don’t. So it’s obvious they don’t want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.

Here's the territory he referenced:


That's a lot of territory.

From the way it was said, I think the remark was meant to be flippant, rather than serious, but it does raise a real question which is, with Russia so weak, will China look north?

September 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarus scrambled fighters to shoot down Russian drones that invaded its airspace.

September 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian drones have entered Latvian and Romanian airspace within the past few days.

September 10, 2024

China v. India

Chinese special forces penetrated into India for up to 30 miles and stayed there for several days.  China and India's border is disputed.

September 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Apparently getting a big positive reaction in Poland:

Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor, and what you think is a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for lunch?

Kamala Harris to Donald Trump in last night's debate.  Trump claimed he'd end the war, if elected, as President Elect, which a person would have to be an absolute idiot to believe. 

September 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland's foreign minister suggested ending social benefits for Ukrainian men living in Europe, which the Ukrainian government agreed with.  The goal would be to boost pressure on military aged men to return to the country and be available for military service.

September 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded at about the same time Tuesday afternoon injuring over 2,700 and killing eight.

Yikes.

September 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A "massive" Ukrainian drone strike on Russian munitions' and fuel depots in Toropets, Tver, Russia has set things ablaze and resulted in a partial evacuation of the region.

For reference, this area is northwest of Moscow.

September 19, 2024

Middle Eastern War

And yesterday it occured again with two way radios.

September 20, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel launched major airstrikes in Lebanon directed at Hezbollah.  

The strikes against Hezbollah actually have received street level support in Arab countries, with Northern Syrian troops even passing out candy in celebration of the event in northern Syria.

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin rejected a request to mobilize made by senior Russian military leaders.  Knowing why Putin does what is hard to fathom, but speculation runs from a fear what it would do to the economy, to a fear what the public reaction would be.

On the latter, Ukraine is rapidly starting to resemble the US participation in the Vietnam War in some ways, and its notable that the US called up very few reservists in that conflict.

It became unpopular anyway, of course.

September 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah retaliated with a massive rocket attack into Israel.  Israel responded with hundreds of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel closed down the Al Jazeera bureau in Gaza.

September 25, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel is calling up reservists and deploying them in the north in anticipation of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

September 29, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

October 1, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has commenced raids within Lebanon.

cont:

Iran struck Israel with missiles in retaliation.

October 6, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel had expanded its missile campaign in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets near Beirut and a Hamas target in northern Lebanon.

It's also reengaged in ground operations in Gaza.

October 8, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians launched a major strike on a Russian petroleum facility on Crimea.

Somebody has launched a major cyber attack on Russian state media yesterday.

October 21, 2024.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has started targeting Hezbollah's financial wing, al-Qard al-Hassan, which operates as a cash based bank, in strikes in Lebanon.

October 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Where the money is:

https://x.com/i/status/1848438591409819750

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel killed major Hamas figure Yahya Ibrahim Hassan Sinwar.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is sending large numbers of troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

October 23, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets.

Russia has been supplying targeting information to the Houthis.

cont:

The Israeli airstrike was an actual air raid, with no losses.

The route is unclear, but this would involve overflights of at least three countries.  It shows Iranian air defenses to be completely anemic.

October 28, 2024

Russia

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 31, 2024

The war on ISIL

The US condcuted airstrikes on ISIL targets in Syria this week.

November 4, 2024

Russia v. The West

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Wall Street Journal. 

November 9, 2024

Iran v. the West.

Iranian agents were plotting to kill Donald Trump, but the plot was foiled by the FBI.  The plot was supposed to be put together quickly, and then if that could not be achieved, revived after the election, which they rationally expected him to lose.

November 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

The U.S. has approved use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs for Ukrainian strikes inside of Russia. This comes in response to Russian mustering of thousands of North Korean troops.

November 20, 2024

Russia and China v. The West

The Danish Navy boarded the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, captained by a Russian, after it was suspected of damaging two undersea telecom cables in the Baltic Sea..

November 21, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports this morning hold that Russia hit Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).  If correct, its the first such use of an ICBM in history and would be an unconscionable escalation of the conflict.

November 23, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The missile turns out to be a new intermediate range experimental Russian missile.

A North Korean general has been wounded in a Ukrainian missile attack near Kursk.

November 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Saudi Arabia is considering dropping the price of oil to $49/bbl to crush the Russian export oil market.

It'd crush the American one as well, which is pretty much what a new Trump administration would deserve, as would those oil producing states voting for him.

NPR Politics podcast on where the war may be headed, in light of the election of Trump:

Before leaving office, Biden wants to keep helping Ukraine

November 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A cease fire has been brokered by the US and France between Israel and Hezbollah.  This will require Hezbollah to withdraw, in Lebanon, north of a line in southern Lebanon.

It's worth noting that the Lebanese Army has largely sat the recent conflict out, probably hoping that Israel would destroy Hezbollah.  This agreement won't be good for Lebanon.

December 2, 2024

Syrian Civil War

A Sunni jihadist rebel group supported by Turkey has made serious gains, taking Aleppo in recent days.  In no small part this is due to the degrading of Russian support for the Syrian government and the degrading of Iranian support by Israel.  

This isn't, ironically, necessarily good news, as there's no reason to believe this group is democratic, or will bey sympathetic to Syrian minorities.

December 3, 2024

South Korea

In a bizarre episode South Korea was under martial law for a day, the President accusing the main opposition party of having communist sympathizers.  Parliament reversed his decision.

December 4, 2024

Syrian Civil War

The Russian Navy is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria,

December 6, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian rebels took Hama, and appear likely to take Homs, in a drive that apparently seeks to sever Syria from the sea.

December 7, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Iran is withdrawing its troops from Syria, stating:

Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,  Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.

Rebels took Daraa and Sweida and the revolution is generally spreading everywhere.

Related threads:

The conflict in Lebanon. A few items.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Inflation. A needed primer.


Seeing as I see so many posts, some from people running for office on this, a reminder.

Inflation going down just means the rate of inflation, goes down.  Prices still rise, just more slowly.

The U.S. Government targets inflation to be at about 2%.  It's 2.4% right now, which is basically a return to the pre Covid rate of inflation.  It goes up a little and down a little.

Personally, I don't like it that the government targets inflation for a perpetual slight rate.  I think the ideal rate is 0%.  Economist dispute that, but I'm not an economist, except in the amature, and distributist, sense.

Some people, such as Jimmy Akin, blame the government for inflation itself, and to some extent that's warranted.  But the recent inflationary cycle reflects world events, a war in Europe's grain belt between to oil producing entities being a big part of that.  Ironically, recent drops in the rate of inflation have been partially caused by Iran being a menace.

Anyhow, politicians who keep suggesting that "prices will go down" if they are elected are either lying or economically ignorant.

Prices can go down, of course, and for a variety of reasons. Technological advances cause the price of some things to go down, although they cause the price of some durables to go up.  Political actions can impact the price of things, but it tends to only occur very moderately over a prolonged period of time, or due to something dramatic, like deregulation of a very heavily regulated industry, or like busting up a big monopoly.

When prices really go down, that's deflation.  Not a decrease in inflation.  Once again, a decrease of inflation means that prices still rise, just not as much over a given period of time.  Deflation means they actually drop.

Deflation is pretty rare in a healthy economy and when it occurs in a healthy economy, it tends to only be for a month or so.  A general prolonged deflation only occurs in a depression. 

Depressions cause deflations.  People are out of work, so they don't have money, so they don't buy things, so prices drop.

And there you have it.

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 7. Undermined.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

May 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have so far launched two limited efforts in the area, one north of Kharkiv City in the direction of Lyptsi and one northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian armored assault groups of an unspecified size attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning and that fighting continued in the area after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assaults.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces also began infantry-heavy assaults between Strilecha (north of Lyptsi) and Zelene (northeast of Lyptsi) on the night of May 9 to 10.[2] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces significantly intensified airstrikes, shelling, and MLRS strikes against Ukrainian positions, logistics, and infrastructure ahead of and during Russian offensive operations in these areas.[3]

ISW

May 12, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian troops have seized Borysivka, Ohirtseve, Pylna and Strilecha in north east Ukraine.   Russia claims to have taken Pletenivka as well, but Ukraine reports fighting in ongoing in Strilecha and Pletenivka, as well as Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi and Hatyshche. 

May 13, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced with Andrei Belousov.

Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened’

Middle Eastern War

Secretary of State Blinken made statements yesterday which were highly critical of Israel.

May 14, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Secretary Blinkin is in Ukraine

Russia gained ground in northeaster Ukraine again yesterday.

Ukraine is deploying reservists in the area, which gets to part of the extremely odd nature of the war.  Ukraine has conscription, and has used it, but up until recently it didn't dip down to the lower 20s age bracket, and moreover almost all, or maybe all, of the troops it has deployed to the front are volunteers.

This is not true, of course, of Russia.

The US has banned imports of Russian uranium.

Middle Eastern War

Hamas conducted increased attacks in northern Gaza yesterday, demonstrating that it has the ability to reconstitute.

Cont:

China v. The West

Governor Gordon Expresses Support for Decision Blocking Chinese Bitcoin Operation From Owning Land Near FE Warren Air Force Base

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –Governor Mark Gordon has issued a statement supporting an order that prevents a Chinese-backed cryptocurrency mining firm from owning land near FE Warren Air Force base. The Governor’s statement follows:

“I am acutely aware and have been monitoring the concerns of surrounding property owners, as well as the potential threats to national security that this operation posed. I am pleased that the Administration recognized the potential threat and took steps to ensure the security of our military installations and the safety of Wyoming residents. Protection of our infrastructure remains paramount to protecting our national security and must always be our highest priority.

I am also grateful to Senator Nethercott for sponsoring SF077 -Homeland defense-infrastructure reporting and investigating to help protect Wyoming's critical infrastructure from foreign threats. I signed this bill, effective July 1, because it provides clear guidance and support to counties, under the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, to investigate land sales near critical infrastructure.” 

-END-

May 16, 2024

Middle Eastern War

The US humanitarian pier in Gaza has been completed.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian offensive northeast of Kharkiv has slowed.

May 17, 2024

Middle Eastern War

The U.S. House voted to force President Biden to send arms to Israel.

May 20, 2024

Democratic Republic of the Congo.

A coup attempt was put down over the weekend.

Iran

Iranian President and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash with other members of the Iranian cabinet.

May 25, 2024

China v. Taiwan

Large-scale naval exercises by the PRC have ended.

Middle Eastern War

Egypt is allowing aid to Gaza to cross its border with the enclave.

Three US servicemen have been injured at the humanitarian pier.

Spain, Norway and Ireland said on Wednesday that they would recognize an independent Palestinian state.

May 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainians have obtained "combat control" over the areas where the Russians were recently on the offensive.

May 27, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, they hit but did not cause any casualties.  Israel responded with airstrikes.

June 2, 2024

Middle Eastern War

President Biden proposed an extended ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for a complete release of hostages.  The proposal is causing turmoil in Israel itself.

June 3, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Strikes on infrastructure shut down most of the power grid in Ukraine.

June 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia

The Russian military has been decimated. You don’t write about that. It’s been freaking decimated.

Joe Biden to Time magazine. 

June 6, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Message for U.S. Citizens: Elimination of “Residence Abroad” Exception to Dual Citizen Departure

Date: June 4, 2024

Location: Ukraine (countrywide)

Event: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv understands that, effective June 1, Ukraine has eliminated a “residence abroad” exception that previously allowed certain Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 to depart the country. After this change, U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens, including those who live in the United States, may no longer be able to depart the country.

Ukrainian law does not recognize dual citizenship. U.S.-Ukrainian dual citizens are therefore treated solely as Ukrainian citizens while in Ukraine and are subject to the rights and obligations of Ukrainian citizens. Under Ukraine’s martial law, men between the ages of 18 and 60 are not permitted to leave the country. Previously, dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizens in this group could enter and then depart Ukraine if they had deregistered their Ukrainian residency and registered their U.S. residency. According to our information, this exception was revoked as of June 1.

The U.S. Embassy is limited in our ability to influence Ukrainian law, including the application of martial law and the mobilization law to Ukrainian citizens. If you are in Ukraine and cannot leave the country, shelter in place and obey all local orders. If you are not currently in Ukraine, we strongly recommend against all travel to Ukraine by U.S. citizen males aged 18 to 60 who also have Ukrainian citizenship or a claim to Ukrainian citizenship and who do not wish to stay in Ukraine indefinitely. There is an extremely high risk you will not be allowed to depart, even with a U.S. passport.

We remind all Americans of the State Department’s Level 4: Do Not Travel warning for Ukraine. For further information, see State Department websites for what you should know as a dual citizen traveler, and what we can and cannot do during a crisis.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Kyiv

+380 44 521 50 00

kyivacs@state.gov

https://ua.usembassy.gov/

State Department – Consular Affairs

+1-888-407-4747 or +1-202-501-4444

Ukraine Country Information

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Mexican Border Crisis

President Biden signed an executive order which shuts the border down once there are 2,500 encounters on the same.

June 7, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will address Congress on July 24 which is probably a phenomenally bad idea.

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on the West Bank Palestinian organization the Lion's Den.

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending $225M in military aid to Ukraine through Presidential draw down authority.

June 10, 2024

Middle Eastern War

An Israeli raid freed 4 hostages, but resulted in the deaths of 274 Palestinians.

June 11, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian offensive in the north has failed and some ground has been retaken by the Ukrainians. 

A Ukrainian offensive in the south has retaken ground held by the Russians since the beginning of the war.

June 16, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A peace summit has convened in Switzerland, but as the Russians are absent, there's little chance that anything will be accomplished.

June 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The conferenced called for Ukrainian territorial integrity to be the basis for peace.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni stated: "Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine's terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion."

Middle Eastern War

The Israeli war cabinet has been dissolved.

Israel is pausing fighting along a humanitarian route during daytime hours.

June 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Interesting set of Russian dismissals and replacements:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024

June 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian war


The Russians are making extensive use of retrofitted "dumb bombs" converted into glide bombs. The press is treating this as a new weapon, but it is not.  Readers here will recall reading about the deployment of the Fritz X German guided glide bomb at Anzio, which was also a devastating weapon.

June 26, 2024

Haiti

Kenyon police are arriving in Haiti as police keepers.

Russo Ukrainian War

North Korea is apparently going to send military engineers to the war in Ukraine.

June 28, 2024

Bolivia

The Bolivian government put down a coup attempt by the commander of its army, General Juan José Zúñiga.

July 4, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskiy challenged Donald Trump to release his peace plan that supposedly will end the war in a day if Trump is unfortunately reelected to the Oval Office.

Ukrainian forces have retreated from a neighborhood in the outskirts of Chasiv Yar.

Middle Eastern War

Israel annexed five square miles of the West Bank.

Such moves necessarily outrage Palestinians and others.

July 21, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Last Thursday Houthi's launched drones on Tel Aviv, which is an impressive feat.  Yesterday Israel retaliated with air strikes on port facilities in Yemen.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia launched its 5th drone attack on Kyiv in two weeks.

July 22, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel intercepted and destroyed a missile fired from Yemen yesterday.

July 25, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In another of a series of Russian arrests of defense officials, Andrei Belkov, the director of the Defense Ministry's Military Construction Company has been arrested.

The Russian Navy no longer has any vessels in the Sea of Azov.

A Russian drone strike accidentally hit territory in Romania.

July 26, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

.Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.[1] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kurakhove direction reported that Russian forces attacked simultaneously with 11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare "Terminator" armored fighting vehicle (of which Russia has reportedly manufactured only 23 as of December 2023), 12 motorcycles, and roughly 200 personnel from several tactical directions at dawn on July 24.[2] The brigade reported that Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance identified the mechanized columns from a distance and that Ukrainian forces used artillery, drones, and minefields to blunt the Russian assault. The brigade reported that Ukrainian forces damaged or destroyed six Russian tanks, seven armored combat vehicles, and all 12 motorcycles and that Russian forces retreated after Ukrainian forces destroyed the first wave of vehicles. ISW last observed Russian forces conduct a battalion-sized mechanized attack in Donetsk Oblast in March 2024. Russian forces have not conducted larger mechanized assaults in Ukraine since the first days of Russia's four-month long operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023.[3] Russian forces likely intended to advance further into Kostyantynivka as part of their efforts to seize the settlement and cut the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka T-0524 highway. Russian sources have long identified interdicting the T-0524 highway and disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Vuhledar as a primary tactical objective in this direction. Russian milblogger recently suggested that Russian forces would intensify operations south of Kostyantynivka in support of this objective and force Ukrainian forces to retreat from positions in and around Vuhledar.[4] Russian forces likely will not make operationally significant advances in this area of the frontline in the near term even if they achieve tactically significant advances and prompt Ukrainian forces to retreat from nearby positions, as the surrounding area has no operationally significant objectives and is largely comprised of fields and isolated, small settlements and no significant nearby tactical heights.

Middle Eastern War

Also from ISW:

July 28, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A rocket launched from Lebanese soil killed 11 children in a Druze village in the Golan Heights.  The suspect, Hezbollah, denied responsibility.

July 29, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israel retaliated with strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

July 30, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli Air Force fighter jets eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s most senior military commander [Fu’ad Shukr]

Israeli announcement. 

July 31, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a raif of some sort in Iran.  He and his body guards went down after attending the swearing in of Iran's new president, showing the extent to which (probably) Israel will go to eliminate its enemies, its military capabilities, and the lack of the same on the part of Iran.

In Iraq, "U.S. forces in Iraq conducted a defensive airstrike in the Musayib in Babil Province, targeting combatants attempting to launch one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS)", according to US officials.

Mali

The Mali army and mercenary Wagner group have taken a pounding after a two day battle with Tuareg separatist rebels and al-Qaeda-linked militants.

August 3, 2024

Mexican Border Crisis

Governor Gordon Responds to Border Crisis by Providing Support to Texas

August 01, 2024

In response to a request for assistance from Texas, Governor Mark Gordon announced that Wyoming law-enforcement personnel will be deploying to the southern border with Mexico.


The deployment of 10 Wyoming Highway Patrol (WHP) troopers later this month is in response to an Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request from Texas Governor Greg Abbott and is being coordinated through the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security (WOHS). During the 14-day deployment, the WHP troopers will provide law enforcement and emergency assistance in support of the Texas Department of Safety. Two deputies from the Natrona County Sheriff’s Office are also planned to deploy at a later date. 


“Wyoming is committed to closing the open Biden-Harris border,” Governor Gordon said. “As part of our ongoing relationship with Texas, we will supply resources as they are requested while also making sure we are safe here at home. We are immensely grateful for the willingness of Wyoming law enforcement members and their families to assist in this important effort to help secure our southern border.”


In August 2023, Governor Gordon authorized the deployment of eight Department of Corrections and local law enforcement personnel to provide support along the southern border. Following that deployment, Texas Rangers traveled to Wyoming earlier this year to provide valuable training to Wyoming law enforcement officers. During the 2024 Legislative session, $750,000 was allocated to the Governor’s Office for expenses to assist border state law enforcement efforts.


Following a 2021 visit to the US-Mexico border, Governor Gordon signed a memorandum of understanding with 25 fellow governors in 2022 creating the American Governors’ Border Strike Force. This multi-state partnership was designed to address the negative impacts of increased illegal immigration, including a rise in the presence of illicit fentanyl in Wyoming.

Middle Eastern War

The US is reinforcing its forces in the Middle East following the Israeli bomb (it turned out to be pre planted) that killed the leader of Hamas.  Iran will feel compelled to retaliate.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine launched a largescale drone attack on Russian targets overnight.

Zelenskiy is seeking Western permission to strike Russian airfields with long range Western munitions.

August 5, 2024

Mali

In a really odd turn of events, Mali which hired Wagner Group mercenaries in its fight against Tuareg separatist, has cut diplomatic relations with Ukraine upon learning that Ukraine provided intelligence to the Tuaregs prior to the recent disastrous ambush on Wagner and Mali forces.

I doubt Ukraine cares, but if Mali has to rely upon Wagner, it should expect stuff like this.

Middle Eastern War

Israel has said the war has spread to include Iran. That's a comment, but a scary one.

August 6, 2024

Middle Eastern War

A rocket attack injured several U.S. troops at an American base in Iraq.

The 300th AFA is going to Kuwait.

Niger

The US has now completely withdrawn from Niger.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.