You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
We shall not enter into any of the abstruse definitions of War used by publicists. We shall keep to the element of the thing itself, to a duel. War is nothing but a duel on an extensive scale. If we would conceive as a unit the countless number of duels which make up a War, we shall do so best by supposing to ourselves two wrestlers. Each strives by physical force to compel the other to submit to his will: each endeavours to throw his adversary, and thus render him incapable of further resistance.
Carl von Clausewitz
The irony is that Trump could make a plausible case that this war is allowable under the Authorization to Use Military Force George W. Bush received in 2001. But symbolically that would mean Trump is continuing Bush’s “forever war.”
Regardless, Republicans aren’t just under a legal clock to get this thing over with, but a political one, too. Polling shows Americans, including many Republicans, have no thirst for a long conflict, which makes sense given that they were not asked to prepare for this war. Hence, the insistence that this war will be short and tidy.
The problem is that Iran knows this. That’s why they don’t have to win, they just have to ride out the bombings until the public or Trump loses patience with this very real war.
Jonah Goldberg, Republicans aren’t willing to call war in Iran what it is.
But they were very strongly involved and all of the people that died through the roadside bombs died and are right now walking around with no legs, no arms. A face that’s been so badly damaged.
Donald Trump, alleged commander in chief.
Unless otherwise noted, every item in this updated thread is on Mad King Donny's war on Iran. Or not a war if you ask Sycophant Mike Johnson, Toady of the House.
March 12, 2026
New Hampshire National Guard’s 157th Air Refueling Wing in connection with the war with Iran.
Up to 17 ships have been hit by the Iranians in the Gulf of Hormuz.
Iran hit refinery targets in Oman.
The first week of Trump's war cost the $11.3 B.
$11.3B and they can still hit ships.
The US is releasing 172M bbls of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Oil opened today at $90.75.
And, not only is the war nowhere near ending, Iran is dictating terms to the United States and Israel, those being acknowledging Iran's "legitimate rights" are acknowledged, compensation for damages and strong international guarantees to prevent future attacks.
Iran would not have made those if it was anywhere near "surrendering" in any form. Indeed, the last item strongly suggests that they've coordinated with China and Russia who would probably back that demand. If the US accepts any variant of this, we're surrendering, but given that the war is a unilateral action by demented Donald Trump, and that the GOP will start panicking soon about this still going on in November, of which there's an excellent chance it will be, and prices are going to skyrocket enormously, and that his mind wonders, there's a pretty good chance he'll do it and declare victory, which nobody except the most deluded MAGA will believe.
This has gotten next to no press and right now, the concept of the U.S. surrendering to Iran seems absurd, but Donald Trump surrendered to the Taliban in the Afghan War and is simply not a very intelligent man. As casualties mount and inflation ramps up, he'll look like a failure, which of course, he largely is. Because of that, he'll grow anxious. I don't put it past him at all to agree to some version of this, if not this.
Cont:
Iran's Supreme Leader issued a statement vowing to avenge those killed in the first strikes and to keep hitting other states.
So, the war isn't over. It's not close to over, and we have no idea how to win it.
March 13, 2026
Two acts of terrorism occurred yesterday.
A major Jewish synagogue was attacked by a U.S. citizen of Lebanese origin whose brother was killed last week in an Israeli raid there.
Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, a former Virginia Army National Guardsman attacked a ROTC class at Old Dominion. He joined ISIL after his discharge from the Guard and had been previously convicted of plotting a terrorist attack. The class instructor was killed before the ROTC cadets killed Jolloh.
These attacks are fairly clearly "lone wolf" type attacks, not sleeper cell attacks. The probable result will be howling complaints by MAGA that every Muslim in the US needs to be deported.
I will note that the Muslim population in the country is really winning the stupid prize for playing the stupid game. They rallied to some degree to Trump as they were upset about Biden's support of Israel. Well, now Gaza, which was the source of all of that, has been utterly flattened, Israel is waging war in Lebanon, and the US is in Iran. This is one of those items like Wyoming conservatives and their support of the "health care" amendment to the Wyoming Constitution wondering if maybe they have the blood of aborted fetuses on their hands (they do). Muslims who supported Trump are partiallyr responsible for this.
Trump threatened the Iranian leadership yesterday, calling them in "deranged scumbags". That's real adult.
A KC135 went down over Iraq, killing the crew of four.
Figures in the administration are quietly backing away from claiming the war will result in regime change. If it doesn't, it will have achieved utterly nothing, but then, we don't really know what the war is supposed to be about in the first place.
March 14, 2026
Is JD Vance Rooting for the Iran War to Fail?
Whatever Vance is or is not rooting for, the price of oil, now at $97/bbl, is definitely going to go up as the US hit a major Iranian petroleum loading facility yesterday, a purely economic target. Going after Iranian petroleum infrastructure means the price rise will last for years, to at least some extent.
Indeed, riffing off of this, the satirical "The Onion" has Trump getting the Greenpeace award for making oil too expensive to use. There's some truth to that. Electric vehicles are starting to look pretty good as the world's petroleum supply gets systematically destroyed.
Indeed, somewhat related to that, we have this:
We not only aren't making money from seizing tankers, we're spending far more on them than the contents of the oil they contained.
This really should have been obvious, but it does not appear that there's anyone in the administration who understands the petroleum industry whatsoever.
Indeed, frankly, while Trump may be a businessman, the administration is amazingly dim on economics itself. This probably shouldn't be a surprise as Trump is merely a real estate developer operating on inherited wealth. M'eh.
None of Trumps economic plans are working out. We're losing jobs, businesses are not moving to the US like he claims, and we're about to get hit by inflation in a ramped up fashion. Folks who bizarrely feel that Trump is some sort of super genius should read this:
Those folks should read this:
I Was Born Wealthy, And Know Rich People Don’t Work Harder Than You I never saw exceptional “hard work” or “intelligence” among the members of the class I was born into.
The gravity of the current situation can hardly be overemphasized. Trump doesn't know what he's doing. As far as anyone can tell, this war was launched as he thought it would be easy. It's not turning out to be at all. There's no plan on how to end the war and we don't really have solid war aims. Pete Hegseth and his company have a radical Calvinist view of what they'd like to do with US power. Marco Rubio is probably chomping at the bits, in his too big shoes, hoping to invade Cuba. We're nowhere near the end of any of this, including what will be endless price rises to fuel a war most Americans did not want and do not want now.
Cont:
As if any more evidence was needed that Trump had utterly no idea whatsoever about what he was doing, we have this:
Last week Trump rudely dismissed a vague suggestion from the UK that it might send ships to the region as we didn't need the help of Allies when we'd already won the war.
Today, Trump is begging for the help of allies.
March 14, 2026, cont.
An editorial note.
When we started tracking Wars and Rumors of War as a series, the United States was not in a full blown war. Indeed, back in 2020, when the series started, the U.S. wasn't really in any major conflicts at all. That first entry is here:
Wars and Rumors of Wars
Vance was ‘skeptical’ voice in White House on Iran strikes
White House officials revealed that the vice president made his opposition known in the leadup.
There's a fair amount of "this wasn't my idea" going on right now, and no wonder. A week into the war, there's no end in sight and, frankly, Iranian predications of oil hitting $200/bbl don't seem that far fetched. Terrorism is ramping up. Things aren't looking good.
Last edition:
