Showing posts with label Huey Long. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Huey Long. Show all posts

Monday, August 17, 2026

Saturday, August 17, 1946. All The King's Men.

 


Published on this day in 1946.

The novel was a fictionalized account of the rise and fall of Huey Long.

Soviet physicist Pyotr L. Kapitsa was removed from his posts and put under house arrest over his feud with Beria.

First Sergeant Lawrence Lambert, U.S. Army Air Force,  became the first person in United States to test an ejection seat by being ejected mid flight.


It was a brave act, but it should be noted that both German and Swedish developers had already introduced ejection seats.  The very first use of one occured on January 13, 1942, when Henkel test pilot Helmut Schenk was forced to use one while making a test flight of a He 280.

Last edition:

Friday, August 16, 1946. Direct Action Day and the founding of the KDP (ارتی دیموکراتی کوردستان).

Monday, March 25, 2024

A Primer, Part I. Populists ain't Conservatives, and LIberals ain't Progressives. How inaccurate terminology is warping our political perceptions.


Conservatives are not Populists.

Far from it.

Liberals aren't Progressives.

Liberals and Conservatives have more in common, than they do to the other categories noted above

Populists and Progressives share many common traits.

Confused?

We hope to clear that up.  But let's start with this. A lot of commentary, particularly of an uneducated type, keeps referring to Donald Trump as "a conservative", and sadly, a lot of true conservatives fall right into line with that fallacy.  Populists right now continually refer to themselves as conservatives, which is because they don't know what conservatives actually are.

They'd likely be horrified if they did.  And indeed, occasionally they are.

Donald Trump is not a conservative.  He's a populist, or is appealing to them. There's a world of difference. People who figure he stands for conservative values are deeply misguided on this point.  He doesn't.  But in the right/left thin gruel political world we live in, it's slightly understandable how people could be misguided on this linguistic point.

But it's wrong.

Let's take a look at it.  More particularly, what are conservatives, liberals, populists and progressives, the four main branches of what we have around in terms of political philosophies right now.

Let's start with this. What is a conservative?

What is a conservative?


Logo of the British Conservative Party.

At the core of their Weltanschauung, conservatives believe that human nature is essentially fixed, and that it's been fixed by an existential external.  Religious conservatives believe that the existential external is God, but not all conservatives are religious conservatives.1   Those who aren't, like George F. Will for example, would hold that the existential external is essentially our evolution.2

Because this is the core belief of conservatives, conservatives are strong advocates for the application of Chesterton's Fence, which holds:

Chesterton's Fence:

There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it."

Chesterton, The Thing

This is why people tend to think that what conservatives stand for is not changing anything. This isn't really true, but they are very cautious about it.  Conservatives do not have any real faith that human nature is set to improve, and therefore have a large degree of caution regarding the changing of anything that's substantial until it can be determined why that thing came into existence in the first place.

And they believe that certain things, human nature, as noted, is essentially unchanging. Given this, they hope we all do as well as we can, but they don't have any view of remaking humanity or creating Heaven on Earth.

I'll note, I am, on most things, a conservative.

In most societies overall, except in cultures that are deeply conservative, conservatives are a minority.  They may be a large minority, but they are usually a minority.  The reason for this is that conservatism is, by its nature, somewhat pessimistic.  Conservatives hope things get better, but more than that hope they don't get worse, and often hope that the better is a return to some status quo ante that was less messed up.

Conservatives are nearly always a minority, which is one of their weaknesses, but they are also generally intellectual by nature, which is part of the reason that they are a minority and are comfortable being one.  Conservatives suspect most people instinctively agree with them, but don't know why, and they're comfortable with that as a rule.

A strength and weakness of conservatives is that they are reluctant to change things until its proven they need to be.  Conservatives believe that Chesterton's fence should have a pretty strong latch, or maybe even a keyed lock on it.  That's also a strength, however, as they're much less prone than others to whims of any kind.

Because conservatives do not feel that humans are in control of their natures, conservatives tend to be somewhat pessimistic as a rule, but they also don't except a lot of humankind in general. They generally feel that people are left best to their own devices, but they are not anarchists or libertarians, as they believe that order is necessary and a good.

To give a few examples of recent, more or less, conservatives, we have the following.  Probably, William F. Buckley is the supreme example of a post World War Two conservatives.  George F. Will would be a close second. George Weigel, must less well known, would be a third.

In terms of politicians, we have, currently, Mitt Romney.  Ronald Reagan was a conservative, but imperfectly so.  Margaret Thatcher was another.  Herbert Hoover, who was a much better President than he is credited as being, was a conservative.  Winston Churchill was a conservative, as was his nemesis Éamon de Valera.

To look at some illustrative issues, in the abstract, as politicians and individuals both vary and compromise, we'll take some more or less contemporary examples, and carry them through.

Abortion.  Conservatives oppose abortion as they believe in an external, and therefore don't have the right to destroy a human life without just cause.  This view, I'd note, is not limited to religious conservatives.

Death Penalty.  As a rule, conservatives have tended to support the death penalty, as it's always existed. They are clearly capable of having their minds changed on the topic, slowly.

Gender issues.  I'm lumping this all into one category, but conservatives as a rule feel that homosexuality is a person's own business, but it shouldn't change institutions like marriage.  They don't believe transgenderism is real, as the science isn't there.

Climate Change.  Early on a lot of conservatives were skeptical on climate change, but few would outright dismiss it.  Many were cautious in accepting it, however, consistent with their general reluctance to immediately accept something new.

Economics.  As a rule, conservatives tend to be in favor of a free market, with as little government interference in the economy as possible, basically taking the view that the best economy is one in which people get to decide things for themselves and that overall, the economy is really too complicated for human micromanaging.

Immigration.  Conservatives have been for restricted immigration, believing that excessive rates damage the economy, impact national culture too rapidly, and impact sovereignty.

Defense.  Conservatives are for a strong national defense, as they support sovereignty.  Prior to World War Two they were opposed to that extending overseas, but since the war they've applied the lessons of history and are very much in favor of extending defense beyond the seas, if not necessarily always intervening in foreign wars.  Two give to contemporary examples of this:

  • The Russo Ukrainian War.  Conservatives are for supplying aid, and a lot of it, to Ukraine as Russia is a demonstrated enemy of the West and if not addressed will have to be at some point.
  • Hamas Israeli War.  While conservatives were actually very reluctant to support Israel in 1948 when it became independent, they've come around to it as it's the only substantial democracy in the Middle East and, accordingly, they feel it should be given the ability to defend itself.

William F. Buckley, who intellectually defined the modern conservative movement.

What, then, are liberals?

What is a liberal?

Logo of the former British Liberal Party, with its color expressing its middle of the road nature.

We don't hear much about liberals anymore.  Progressives, which we will deal with below, have sort of taken over the political "left" in recent years, and liberalism, in a modern context, has weakened, which is a tragedy.

Liberals actually hold the essential core value that conservatives do, that being that there is an existential external that has set human nature. They believe, however, that human nature can be improved, and that it requires collective effort to do that.  Unlike conservatives, who hope we all do as well as we can, liberals feel that we can all be made better.  That's the real difference between traditional conservatives and traditional liberals.

Liberals see the world much the way that conservatives do, but have a very optimistic view of human nature and are certain that it can be improved. The early GOP was a liberal party and therefore, when you consider that, Lincoln appealing to "the better angels of our mercy" makes a lot of sense.  Conservatives would appeal to angels as well, but not "ours", and for help.

Because liberals believe that human nature can be improved, they see government, and the organs of government, as vehicles that can do it.  Therefore, liberals have a lot of faith in the organs of government to basically drag the mass along into an improved state, as they see it.

Right now, however, real liberals and real conservatives are few and far between. That's because we have populists and progressives dominating the field.

In most societies, liberals are the majority.  To some extent, that's because they are optimistic, and tend to believe they can make everything better than it currently is.

Looking at our issues, we have the following.

Abortion.  Liberals generally support allowing abortion up to a certain number of weeks, although this isn't universally true. The intellectual underpinning of this is weak, but is based on the concept that by doing this they're supporting the rights of women.

Death Penalty.  Liberals are pretty uniformly opposed to the death penalty, believing that it achieves no real purpose and is inherently barbaric.

Gender issues.  Liberals, like conservatives, generally used to hold that homosexuality was a person's own matter, if they were subject to it.  They've come to support regarding homosexuality as equating with heterosexuality in recent years on the belief that this improves the living standards of everyone.

Transgenderism is a new thing, but generally liberals lean towards supporting transgender "rights" on the concept that as it seems to occur, it must be natural, and society shouldn't hurt people who express it.

Climate Change.  Liberals fully accept that this is occurring and is a grave crisis, and they want governmental action on it.

Economics.  Contrary to what people like to imagine, conservatives and liberals really have very similar views of the economy.  The difference is really at the margin in how much governmental action there should be in the economy, and what the tax rates are.  If viewed from the abstract, however, tehir views are essentially the same.

Immigration.  Liberals generally believe that all people are the same or can be the same, so they dismiss cultural issues regarding immigration.  They are for controls, but having a desire to improve things for everyone, they're generally in support of a much higher immigration rate than conservatives.

Defense.  Traditionally, contrary to what people like to imagine, liberals have been in favor of a strong defense and also have been quite interventionist.  There are exceptions, but the "improve things for everyone" viewpoint resulted, throughout the 20th Century, in a much higher inclination by liberals to intervene in foreign wars than conservatives have had.  Since Vietnam, this has been much less the case, however.

  • The Russo Ukrainian War.  Liberals are very much in favor of aiding Ukraine for the same reason that conservatives are, and also as Ukraine leans towards the west in culture and values.
  • Hamas Israeli War.  Most real liberals support aiding Israel, as they've always had a strong desire to support the Jewish state since the end of World War Two.

In terms, again, of recent examples, Robert Reich, who teeters on the edge of progressivism, is one.  Bill Clinton was another.  Nancy Pelosi is another example, as is Chuck Schumer.  Going back a bit further, both John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were liberals.  Frankly, Richard Nixon was as well.

A controversial example would be Theodore Roosevelt.  While his breakaway political party was The Progressives, he was a pretty far left political liberal, as was his cousin Franklin Roosevelt.

Franklin Roosevelt, arguably the most clearly Liberal of American Presidents.

What is a populist?

Emblem of the former Populist, or People's Party.

This has certainly been the Age of Populism.

Populists believe that the good is determined by the collective wisdom of the masses.  So unlike conservatism and liberalism which believe that an existential external had defined what human nature is, populists believe that the collective common sense of the people defines that, and that's an existential collective internal.

Because populists believe that, it's a particularly shallow political theory and particularly subject to the storms of the time.  Populist can be, and have been, on the radical "left" and the radical "right".  Indeed, when Trump was coming up in 2016 so was Bernie Sanders, and they both appealed equally to populists.  A lot of the same people who now worship Trump, worshiped Sanders.

Right now, people confuse populism with conservatism as populism in the US stands, as it often has in the past, for an Evangelical variant of the American Civil Religion.  Protestant in its view, it basically holds a very shallow version of Christianity which is mostly focused on sex, and mostly focused on homosexual sex being bad.  Beyond that, it longs, just as it had in the mid to late 20th Century in the South, for a mythic version of American history in which everyone supposedly did really well economically and there were no problems (no drugs, no alcoholics, no mentally ill, no violence, etc.).

Populism has been an occasionally strong current in the American political stream from time to time.  There was, at the turn of the prior century, a Populist Party that existed from 1892 until 1909, and which we should note did very well in Wyoming's elections of the period.  It was, we might note, regarded as a left wing party.

Populism is only popular in a society during times of extreme economic or social distress.  Massively pessimistic in its outlook, Populist always have the belief that they are under siege and are therefore extremely given to conspiracy theories of all type.  They are, accordingly, very easy to manipulate.  They also tend to be given to ignorance, which plays into this, as they believe folk wisdom is the ultimate source of knowledge on everything.  And what it says, is that they're swimming in the shallow end of the pool, quite frankly.

The strength of populists is mass.  They tend to be numerous, when conditions give rise to them.  They also tend to be extremely strong-willed in their beliefs, even fanatically so.

Indeed, that's a weakness.

More than any other group, populists are prone to raging hatred.  As their beliefs arise from a collective mass, anyone contesting them is regarded as a lunatic enemy of the people.  Populists are, therefore, highly prone to tribalism and fanaticism

An additional weakness is that they're highly prone to being led by others.  In Weimar Germany, for example, populists sentiments were heavily reflected in the German Communist Party and the Nazi Party, with some people whipping back and forth between the two.  Rank and file Nazis were essentially populists, even if the leaders were not. The same is true of rank and file Reds during the Russian Revolution and Russian Civil War, as well as with the Greens.  Communism and Anarchy were mass movements as they were shallow, and made up of "common sense".

As this demonstrates, populists generally actually lack a philosophy, but don't realize it.  They "sense" or "feel" rather than think, and therefore are easily led by those who can tap into that.

A good example of how populist can be easily manipulated into something extreme.  We never "treated" viruses with soup, and we aren't treating them now with "communism".  But the anti-scientific anti-vax movement has attracted populist with the concept of a pass that looked like this, that never existed.

Because of this populists are very easily led by other movements, when a savvy leader comes along and can manipulate them.  And often, but not always, those leaders are quasi populists themselves. Both Lenin and Hitler were.  Franco was not.  Nor was Mussolini.  All were able to lead the masses.

Turning to our set of issues, we have the following.

Abortion.  This is actually hard to say as Populists vary on this to a fair degree.  They all, right now, oppose abortion, but are prepared to compromise on some vague number of weeks if for no other reason that makes it easy.

Death Penalty.  Populists are for it, as its always existed, and for its extension, as the people who get executed seem to be part of an evil "them".

Gender issues.  Populists are very much opposed to homosexuality and transgenderism as they sense its not party of the collective norm.  They share this view with Conservatives, but tend to be nasty and virulent about it, rather than thoughtful.

Climate Change.  Populists just don't believe its real.  The collective group of them doesn't, and therefore individual ones don't, evidence to the contrary aside.  As populists engage in a sort of group think, that's what they think.

Economics.  Populists say they are for a free market economy but have no real understanding of economic issues. They're for protectionism as that protects us against a foreign them.

Immigration.  Populists are radically opposed to immigration as the people who come in are part of a foreign them, and are not part of us. They believe that immigration problems are the result, in some instances, of a conspiracy.

Defense.  Populists support our troops, but appear to have the old William Jennings Bryan view of things, and he was a populist, that troops shouldn't leave our shores.  They are radically opposed to intervention in any war overseas in the belief that none of them matter to us, almost.

  • The Russo Ukrainian War.  Populist oppose aiding Ukraine.  Being prone to be led around, some of them oppose the war as Donald Trump is a fan of Putin, and therefore they are too.  Others oppose it as its overseas and they don't think it matters.
  • Hamas Israeli War.  Populist are oddly in favor of Israel, which is contrary to their general political alignment. This is for an odd reason, which is that a lot of populists are Evangelical Christians who have an apocalyptic view of the Jewish state, so they tend to believe that God has commanded us to support Israel.

Giving really outstanding example of populists is a bit hard to do, to some extent, as they tend to fail over time, and then be forgotten.  But there are some notable examples.  Louisiana's Huey Long was a populist.  Fr. Charles Coughlin was as well.  George Wallace was for much of his life, but he became a conservative in his final years.  

Huey P. Long, Depression Era populist.

What is a progressive.

Poster of the Russian Socialist Revolutionary Party.

Like populism, progressivism has existed in the United States for a long time, and perhaps just about as long as populism.

Progressives believe, like populists, that human nature is controlled by an internal existential, but in their case they radically believe that it's controlled by an internal individual existential.  So, unlike progressives who believe in a sort of mystical will of the people, progressives believe that each and every individual has a radically individual reality that's a supreme existential good.  

Progressives are convinced of radical individualism while at the same time having very low faith in people in general.

Because of their world outlook, progressives tend to share some odd traits with populists, and indeed historically they are both left wing in their political, and they tend to exist at the same time.  Progressives tend to be radically opposed to human nature, and therefore given to conspiracy theories of a type.  They tend to be anarchic in their expressed views, just as populists tend to be, but they favor autocracy in reality, just as populists ultimately tend to be.  Societies that essentially degrade to a struggle between populism and progressivism, usually spectacularly fail, with late Republican Spain and late Weimar Germany being distressing examples.

In terms of Progressives, for reasons that we'll explain below, popular examples are often associated with other movements.  Having said that, figures like Noam Chomsky, AoC, Henry Wallace, are good examples.  Much of current academia, for peculiar reasons, is made up of Progressives.  There aren't, however, any countries current governed by them, unlike Populists.  

Progressives in recent decades have tended to lurk under the surface of liberals, so they don't erupt into existence the way Populists do.  Being opportunistic, however, they've done so very much since the Obergefell decision, and then in reaction to Trump.

On our issues, we find the following:

Abortion.  Progressives are radically in favor of abortion as they are radically in favor of any one human deciding their own fate, and the fate of an unborn person doesn't matter, as they are not yet born.

Death Penalty.  Progressives are opposed to it, but mostly on a knee-jerk level. This is borrowed from the Liberals, and it's been adopted without much thinking.  Having said that, termination of a life does radically end that person's ability to decide anything, so this is overall consistent with their views.

Gender issues.  Progressives believe that this can and should be radically determined by the individuals, so basically they don't really believe that genders, science notwithstanding, really exist.

Climate Change.  Climate Change impacts everyone, so Progressives are for immediate government action to address it.

Economics.  Progressives lean towards radical economics, so concepts like Universal Basic Income and whatnot, that seem to be capable of individual use, are heavily favored. They like state intervention in the economy and society, to the extent it seems to free up anyone individual.

Immigration.  Progressives, like liberals, don't believe that culture really matters, so they're heavily opposed to restrictions of significance.

Defense.  Prior to the recent wars it would have been hard to say what a Progressive position was on defense, other than that Progressives like to use the Armed Forces as a petrie dish for social change.  Given the various world crises right now, however, things have become clearer.

  • The Russo Ukrainian War.  Progressives favor aiding Ukraine as Ukraine is a western nation in culture, and Russia is not.
  • Hamas Israeli War.  Progressives want the war to end, as probably everybody does, but have an odd belief that we can decree this to be so.  Younger Progressives tend to support Hamas as it seems like it involves the rights of more people than the Israeli cause does.  Not really believing in anything externally existential, the rapes and murders committed by Hamas don't really matter to them.

Robert LaFollette, Progressive of the early 20th Century.

How these categories bleed into each other, creating confusion.

In no small part due to the adoption of the French Revolution "right wing/left wing" political map, we tend to think of all political categories as existing as a scaled line, when in fact their world more closely resembles a box, or perhaps intersecting circles. This confuses people in general, including those who fit any one category.  For example, a lot of populists right now genuinely believe that they are conservatives, when in fact they are anything but.  Put another way, a lot of members of the Freedom Caucus would actually feel a lot more comfortable at a Bernie Sanders Coffee Klatch than they would at a William F. Buckley Society cocktail party, and by leagues.

To start with conservatives again, as conservatives apply Chesterton's Fence to all sorts of things as a philosophical principle, they may see populists who arise due to social stress as members of the same group.  To give an example, conservatives are rightly horrified by the gender nonsense that's going on right now, and more than that look back to male/female social roles that seem more solidly grounded in an existential other.  Populists take the same outward approach, but that's because the collective mass of them tells them that what is going on is weird.  Conservatives tend to support strong border and immigration policies as they believe in the principal of sovereignty, which has long existed, and they fear they value national culture and fear that uncontrolled immigration can damage it.  Populists tend to support the same, but because the people coming across the border are part of some mysterious other, who are almost not real people, or at least not equal people.

On other issues, however the differences begin to become more apparent.  Conservatives have always tended to support a strong national defense on sovereignty grounds, although that doesn't always take the same expression. Therefore, while conservatives of the 1930s were isolationist, they were also more than willing to build a strong Navy that projected power well beyond the United States.  In recent years, they've been strong proponents of collective security, often aggravating liberals by being willing to see authoritarian regimes as potential defense partners.  Populists are universally strict isolationist, as they feel anything beyond our borders doesn't matter.

Economically, conservatives generally tend to be fiscally restrained, but not unwilling to apply the American system where it will seem to work.  They believe in balanced finances.  Populists believe in balanced finances, but take a hyper stingy view of expenditures, virtually never seeing any expenditure as benefiting the populist mass. Therefore, funding for schools, something conservatives have long supported, becomes sort of an anathema to some populists.  Strong education in science, math and history as a conservative position degrades into limited education on the populist end, as they have watched populist raised children evolve into conservatives, liberals or progressives.

Western conservatives (but not European conservatives) had tended to be in favor of limiting government, as they basically feel, in a pessimistic sort of way, that people are generally better off figuring out things for themselves rather than having the government do it, or do things for them.  Populists are for a limited government as they hate the government, seeing it as the conspiratorial "they" that's out to destroy them and the culture they believe in.

For this reason, conservatives and populists confuse each other as being part of their ranks.  Populists continually claim they are conservatives, when in fact they are not.  Populists have been told that the Republican Party is the home of conservatives, which after 1912 it came to be, and as they believe that they are conservative, they believe anyone in the GOP who doesn't think the way they do is a Republican In Name Only.  Ironically, populists were in the Populist Party at the turn of the last century in the US, and then in the Democratic Party for decades.  What they are complaining about is the traditional positions of the Republican Party.

The same is true of liberals and progressives.

Liberals tend to be basically in favor of social liberty for the same reason that conservatives are in favor of limited government, they feel that people are best left to figure those things out for themselves and will ultimately figure the right thing out.  Progressives want to force a brave new social world view on everyone.  Liberals are more willing to use the government and government money for what they think the common good is than conservatives are, but progressives are willing to use both to force their view on what the good is on people who disagree with it.  Liberals (like many conservatives) are supportive of preservation of the common good, through public and environmental policies.  Progressives are as well, but they're more much willing to dictate an extra view on how people should generally behave.  Liberals, like conservatives, have traditionally been in favor of a strong national defense, but have been, since the Vietnam War, very careful about using it beyond our shores unless absolutely necessary.  Progressives, like populists, never see it as necessary as a rule.

Because liberals and progressives overlap, they confuse each other as being on the same scale on the left, which in fact, they're in different circles or boxes.  Liberal inability to see the distinction has been to the benefit of Progressives, who have come to increasingly dominate the Democratic Party in recent years.

Liberals and conservatives tend to have a lot in common, but not be able to realize it, in part because liberals feel they need to make camp with the progressives, and the conservatives do make camp with the progressives.

A warning

And here we get, in a way, to where we are now.

Conservatives in the modern West, and always in the English-speaking West, have democracy as a primary virtue, in spite of being aware that they're never in the majority, although the National Conservative movement, which is reactionary in the true sense of the word (it's reacting to something) is weakening that and looking to a pre Second World War model of European conservatism.

Liberals are always in favor of democracy.

Progressives and Populists really aren't quite often. Sometimes they are, but often they are not.

And Progressives and Populists only are in the forefront of politics in odd, and dangerous, times.

We are in odd and dangerous times.

Footnotes:

1.  Hindu conservatives, and there are millions, would say "gods", or some variant of it, we should note.

2. Evolutionary biology is almost an elemental fixture of conservatism.  Indeed, scientists who are evolutioanry biologist have been rebuked, in recent years, by progressives simply for stating scientific truths.

Sunday, June 5, 2022

Illiberal Democracy.

Personal symbol of Marshall Petain.

There’s one overriding theme I’ve heard over and over and over again, and that is: We’re fed up. We’re fed up with seeing young mothers and fathers who can’t find baby formula for their newborns. We’re fed up with $6 gasoline and $6 diesel; we’re fed up with the shortage of fertilizer for our farmers and a supply chain that had been broken by the incompetence of our federal agencies. . .  We’re fed up with critical race theory,” We’re fed up with boys competing in girls’ sports. We’re fed up with the radical abortion industry, and those extremists who are willing to destroy the Supreme Court to prevent us from being able to protect life.

Harriet Hageman.

Really?

Hageman is actually an establishment Republican, strongly associated with the successful farming class of southeastern Wyoming, and probably darned near 100% in agreement with Cheney on most things.  If that's true, it makes her campaign cynical in that the same things she's "fed up" with Liz Cheney is probably also "fed up" with, save for liberal democracy itself, which Cheney is going out on a limb for, but Hageman is willing to work against if it puts her in office. [1]

But, in the Ford Center where she delivered her speech, many of those who are "fed up", are fed up with liberal democracy itself.  

That explains a lot about the January 6 insurrection.

For those people, who feel that a certain vague set of "traditional American values" should be universally accepted, and what's more enforced, they're fed up with what they regard as attacks up on it by the politically liberal left.  Not only are they tired of them, they'd drive them from the field as wholly illegitimate.

It's not that they oppose the voice of the people. . . it's that only people with the correct views, as they see them, should have a voice at all, and those people don't include the liberal left in the country.

They aren't even included if more of them voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Their votes may be simply doubted by many Trump true believes, many who beleive that it can't be the case that a majority of Americans don't hold the same beliefs they do, but for others, the votes of that other group, simply doesn't count.

They're for Illiberal Democracy.

Let's see if we can flesh this out.

And we'll start with this.  CPAC is holding its convention in Hungary.

Hungary?

Yes.

Why?

Viktor Orban.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party won the Hungarian election a few weeks ago by a surprising margin, returning Orban to a fourth term.


Eh?  So what?

Well, it's more significant, for strange reasons, than a person may think.

Fidez was founded in 1988 as a center left party that opposed the ruling Communist party.  It registered officially as a party in 1990, just as the Soviet Union was collapsing, and Orbán was its first leader and, of course, remains its leader.  It entered the National Assembly of Hungary that year, at which time it adopted liberal-conservatism as its plant form, causing its left-wing members to depart.  It's since became a nationalist conservative party and moved increasingly to the right.

Since that time, it's become one of the most notable political parties of its type.  Orbán himself described its existential philosophy as "Illiberal Democracy" rather than "Liberal Democracy", the latter being the type of government which generally describes true democracies.  You know, think Edmund Burke and John Locke, Thomas Jefferson and those fellows.

Fidesz describes their philosophy, more specifically, as a "Christian illiberal democracy", which would explain the color orange in their banner, orange being the color of Christian democracy.  Whatever it may be, they definitely aren't the same as Germany's Christian Democrats or the American Solidarity Party, two other Christian Democratic parties.  Orbán and his followers regard liberal democracy as having undemocratic tendencies as they are, they assert, "intolerate of alternative views".  His party is nativist, nationalistic, Hungarian ethnocentric, and self asserted as Christian, although like other governments in the past that have claimed the same, particularly in Catholic countries, some of the policies of the government have found disfavor with the country's presiding Bishops.  Orbán himself is a member of the Presbyterian Reformed Church of Hungary which means, oddly enough, like Admiral Horthy of the 1920s through 1940s, who held similar views, he's a Protestant, and a Protestant in a largely Catholic country.


Like a lot of similar movements, and there have been similar ones in the past, they're difficult to describe from an American prospective.  They are not easy to compare to the German Christian Democatic Party or Catholic Centre Party, as noted, two historic mainstream Christian democratic parteis. They're more comparable to some branches, but not all, of the Spanish Phalangist or to Francoist in general, to some degree.  Perhahps the best comparison might be to Ireland's Christian democratic party, Fianna Fáil, during the DeValera era, 


Indeed, the original Fianna Fáil would be a quite good comparison, as it was all of those things just noted, for the most part, and that had a major impact on the constitution and culture of Ireland before the Celtic Tiger era.  It  might also, it might be noted, have sewn the seeds for a collapse of its political views that came in that era.  Culturally and politically, Fianna Fáil worked to make Ireland an institutionally Catholic republic, vesting education, for example, in the Church, over the Church's original objection.  Indeed, much of the institutional Catholicism that Fianna Fail created was opposed by the Church and churchmen, who thought that newly independent Ireland should be a conventional parliamentary democracy instead.

Still, Fianna Fáil always existed in the context of parliamentary democracy, and it acceded to defeat when it lost, which it frequently did, and Ireland had and still has a vigorous parliament. So irrespective of its massive influence, and that of its founder, maybe the example isn't a good one, as the first principal for it turned out to be democracy, once it had turned to democracy in the first place.

Another example would be the Union Nationale of Quebec, which was extremely similar, and whose history and fate tells much of the same tale.


The Union Nationale was a fiercely Québécois party, seeking no favor for or from English-speaking Quebecers at all.  Like Fianna Fáil, it was aggressively Catholic, and it was also aggressively agrarian, something that Fianna Fáil was also early on.  It sought a Francophone enclave within Canada that had little to do with the rest of the English-speaking nation, and it often took positions diametrically in opposition to the rest of the nation, at a time in which the rest of Canada was aggressively English.  Also like Fianna Fáil, in the highly federal Canada, it worked to institutionalize this by incorporating the Church into civil roles, such as education, by also health.

The result there, of course, was ultimately the Quiet Revolution, which destroyed the Union Nationale and put in its place an aggressively secular Francophone view.  Often missed, the Church initially was one of the backers of the Quiet Revolution, although ultimately it got far out of hand and lead to a sort of collapse of Québécois culture, seeing the times as evidence that it should separate itself from roles better fulfilled by government.

And we should note, the party wasn't always in power, and when it wasn't, it accepted that. So again, maybe it isn't the best example.

Maybe Vichy France is.


Petainist France rejected, by fiat, the ideals of the Revolution, which were often honored frequently in the breach rather than the observance, and in France the Revolution itself had never really been fully accepted by a large percentage of the population. A sort of democracy lived on, but only one that was strictly confined within Petainist ideas, which were summed up by his motto "Work, Country, Family".  A very secular man himself, Petain's conservatism was much like pre-war German conservatism, in that it was based on a set of social ideals, but not on religious ones.  Like the German variant, they were social in nature, and highly nationalistic.  And like the pre Nazi German variant, they were willing to endure some democratic institutions, but only to the extent that they were controlled within that context.

And next, perhaps, you have Franco's Spain, where no democracy was tolerated at all.

All of which takes us to Patrick Deneen.

Eh?

Deneen is a political science professor at the Notre Dame.  He came into prominence in 2018 when he authored Why Liberalism Failed, a major work criticized heavily by the mainstream press and deeply studied by conservatives.  Yale's snippet on the book states:

Has liberalism failed because it has succeeded?
 
"Why Liberalism Failed offers cogent insights into the loss of meaning and community that many in the West feel, issues that liberal democracies ignore at their own peril."—President Barack Obama
 
"Deneen's book is valuable because it focuses on today's central issue. The important debates now are not about policy. They are about the basic values and structures of our social order."—David Brooks, New York Times
 
Of the three dominant ideologies of the twentieth century—fascism, communism, and liberalism—only the last remains. This has created a peculiar situation in which liberalism’s proponents tend to forget that it is an ideology and not the natural end-state of human political evolution. As Patrick Deneen argues in this provocative book, liberalism is built on a foundation of contradictions: it trumpets equal rights while fostering incomparable material inequality; its legitimacy rests on consent, yet it discourages civic commitments in favor of privatism; and in its pursuit of individual autonomy, it has given rise to the most far-reaching, comprehensive state system in human history. Here, Deneen offers an astringent warning that the centripetal forces now at work on our political culture are not superficial flaws but inherent features of a system whose success is generating its own failure.

Apparently Dineen takes a really dim view of things, noting that, as this states, "centripetal forces now at work. . . are generating their own failure".  To put it mildly, his adherents, and probably Dineen himself, feel what might basically be described as a sense of doom about things as liberalism is inherently anti-democratic at the point at which it begins to attack its own culture's foundational principles.

This in fact was recently apparently a topic on First Things, the notable journal, and that resulted in a Catholic Answers Focus podcast on the topic, entitled:

#420 Liberals, Liberalism, and Liberal Democracy - R.R. Reno

It's subtitled:

A debate is raging within Catholicism over the legitimacy of modern liberalism. R.R. Reno, editor of First Things magazine, stops by to help us understand the stakes in the debate. Cy Kellet: Modern ideas about freedom are not setting people free.
re debating what to do about it. .R. Reno is next. 

Heavy stuff.

Inside the covers of First Things, and elsewhere, there are in fact debates on this.  Apparently the hardcore Dineen followers feel things are hopeless and are headed in the Fidesz direction.  In contrast, individuals like George Weigel feel that things are messed up, and it's hard to disagree with that, but that this can be corrected with in the foundations of the liberal democracy itself.  Weigel, I'd note, just authored The Fragility of Order, which I do have, but have not yet read.  It's related to this topic, apparently.

And then there's a generally disgusted George F. Will.

Huh?

Will is, of course, the most prominent of the remaining Buckleyite conservatives, and is generally disgusted with everything right now.

During a recent episode of Meet The Press, Will was one of the panelists and in response to a question about why some elements of the GOP, albeit a minority, have had a love affair with Putin, he spouted off, in a somewhat angry tone, that it was "because they loved Orban first".  He was clearly mad and upset about it, but a little bit of explanation would have been helpful.

In fairness, he did expand a bit, but the expansion was oblique and probably nonsensical to all but the most informed.  Basically, he was making the point that American conservatives admire Orbán, or at least some do, as he's maintaining a certain very conservative line on things that they wish to maintain here. By extension, they see Putin in the same light.

And indeed Orbán is an open ally of Putin, although it's certainly worth questioning if they are in fact anything really alike, politically. While critics of Hungary have labeled the country's current commitment to democracy imperiled, it does in fact function democratically if in a semi authoritarian way.  Orbán could have lost the recent election.  To a degree, those who criticize Orbán do so as they feel that his policies are anti-democratic, but what they really are is anti-liberal.  It is different.

Putin, on the other hand, is anti-democratic and where he fits on the conservative/liberal scale is pretty hard to figure out.  He's made a point of being aligned with the Russian Orthodox Church, and vice versa, and some of his policies, such as his policies on homosexuality, square very much with Orbán's views on the same things.  It seems, however, that what Orbán is, is an Illiberal Democrat, and what Putin is, is an Illiberal Authoritarian.  They aren't the same thing.

And that takes us to CPAC.

What?

Yes, the Conservative Political Action Conference.

CPAC used to essentially be the political equivalent of Comic Con, quite frankly, and wasn't taken much more seriously than a big Star Trek convention. That's really changed in recent years, and all the hopefuls on the right who are hoping to gain traction show up at it and give firey far right speeches.  In recent years, CPAC has had the impact of taking the GOP further and further into the right wing camp.  It's also had an impact on the states, as various organizations with very specific goals hand out predrafted legislative bills that state legislators pack home and submit to their state legislative bodies.  There have been several that have been introduced in the Wyoming legislature in recent years.  It's having quite an impact, even though most have failed.

This year, there's going to be an event called:

2022 CPAC Hungary

And that's no small deal.

Essentially, CPAC is going global and it's endorsing Fidesz.

And that's where things tie together.

But not before we consider Rod Dreher.

Readers of this august cyberjournal may recognize Dreher as he's the dour social critic and conservative who, a few years ago, issued a book called The Benedict Option.  I've not read it, but the gist of it is that Christians should take a page out of the history of St. Benedict, as Dreher understands it, and essentially form Christian enclaves in what he regards as a Barbarian sea.

Lots of modern Christians have taken up seeing the world sort of this way, in a "post-modern" or "post Christian" way, but frankly their points are very much over done.  Christianity fundamentally and irrevocably changed the Western world, but it frankly simply is not the case that after the year 450 thigns were just completley Christian until 1968.

And this is an important fact, as it forms much of the central world view of those who are now on the far right.

In reality, adherence to Christian morality waxed and waned over the centuries, with there being eras in which the tide seemed to be going out, and others when it came back in.  Much of the Age of Englightment, from which Liberal Democracy comes we should note, was a freaking moral sewer, at least to the degree that classes with some means were involved.  There's a delusional group of people who believe that monarchy upheld the moral standards, for example, but they hardly did, with royals leaping out of various people's beds so quickly that its a wonder they had any time for affairs of state at all.  Even in the high Medieval Age, the offspring of monarchs usually is divided into legitimate and illegitimate, with a long list for both.

As noted, the Age of Englightment was a real moral sewer.  Often poorly understood, this was exhibited by at least some of our "Founding Fathers", who were part of that age.  Benjamin Frankly was a self-confessed practitioner of "wenching" when he was young.  Thomas Jefferson had children by his wife and his wife's half sister, the latter who a product of a union between a slave and his wife's father, and who was held in bondage herself. 

Pretty icky.

This is "Pride Month".

"Pride Month" image published by the United States Marine Corps, which was the last branch of the military to accept women, and very reluctantly at that, into combat roles (a decision that I disagree with).  When average Americans, many of whom have not really accepted that current Western liberal concept of homosexuality being normal, see this in one of the most manly of American institutions, they're going to react somehow.  FWIW, I've known a Vientam vet who was a Marine in that country and, indeed, was homosexual.  He was a really tough guy as well.  That isn't the point, but rather the public requirement of acceptance.

So, you may ask?

Well, it relates more than a person might suppose.  Let's consider one of Hageman's "fed ups" once again.

We’re fed up with boys competing in girls’ sports. 

Truth be known, a lot of rank and file average people are fed up with just that, and much of what's related to it, even those who aren't saying so.  At a deep down level, a lot of people who are socially conservative are reeling with the thought that things that were regarded as deeply abnormal, and indeed perverse, just recently are now celebrated with "pride".  And this is forcing a social view down the throats of a large section of the population.  Indeed, just as the left decries the right for acting anti democratically, the left is fueling the fire by acting massively anti democratically itself.  It's mostly just tearing down, with no guardrails at all as to what is left up.

And this hits people at all sorts of different levels, and not just those who are universally conservative on all of their views.  That's because big portions of the country are forcing a social construct on traditional beliefs, even if they have to counter science to do it.  

That this was going to create a massive problem in society was obvious at the point, ironically now given the left wing displeasure with the Supreme Court, when the Supreme Court issued the Obergefll decision. As long ago as that, which isn't all that long ago really, we predicted that this would be a massive turning point in acceptance of the status quo in the country, and we've proven right.

It isn't the only one. Things have been slow in building.  And populism, which is a separate movement, but one which is feeding into this, and vice versa, has its roots in a lot of other issues, including massively high immigration and the loss of blue collar jobs, both of which are tied to together and feed into each other. 

All  of these together, however, are a poisonous brew that we've been adding ingredients into since the 1960s.

So now we have a Republican Party that's split between populism, establishment conservatism, and illiberal democracy conservatism.  It's an odd mix.  It's like mixing, in one Uber ride, Huey Long, Mitt Romney and Rod Dreher, with Donald Trump trying to tell the driver where to go.

By State Archives of North Carolina - https://www.flickr.com/photos/north-carolina-state-archives/21548679213/, No restrictions, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=54996137

Something to consider here, however.

Fianna Fáil, which dominated early Ireland, but never lost its democratic principles, evolved and ultimately Ireland went through a large, and frankly tragic, shift.  I think the Ireland before the Celtic Tiger was a better Ireland, but as at least one prominent American Catholic churchman noted at the time, the system was setting Ireland up for later social problems.

Quebec underwent a Quiet Revolution, which the Church supported, but with equally tragic social results.  In some ways, Quebec has become pathetic among the Canadian provinces due to what it experienced, which can in part be argued that this was due to the revolution coming too late.

Vichy fell with Nazi Germany, and the French right has never recovered.  Only now is there a serious right wing in France, and it continues to struggle with the legacy of Vichy.

The point is that, generally, bad ideas die in the sunlight.  Times do change.  The United States is going through a massive period of internal turmoil, and it seems, only just now, 50 plus years of the United States Supreme Court being a quasi legislative branch of government are ending, to much left wing ire. [2]

Imposing an illiberal democracy in its place probably stands, ultimately, to arrest the return to real democracy, and to sanity as well, and to damage the very principals that those now enamored with it espouse.

Footnotes:

1.  Hageman makes missteps in what she's pitching to.  Is the average Wyomingite  fed up with the "shortage of fertilizer for our farmers"?  No, most of us know nothing about that whatsoever. That reflects the southeastern Wyoming agricultural view that everyone has the exact same concerns that they do, a common affliction for most people.  Not that it doesn't matter, but it isn't something most people spend much time thinking about.

2.  It may be worth asking, as part of this, how much of a return those showing up in these crowds really want.

Hageman's list of offenses list some, but how much further beyond that would people really wish to go?  Before the Courts and Legislatures really started down the current path, a lot of things now taken for granted were illegal.

A person can argue on moral bases that perhaps many are still bad ideas, and people do, but do people want the law to return to these topics?  For example, no-fault divorce was not a thing. Cohabitation was illegal in many states.  Homosexual activity was illegal in some states.  Birth control was illegal in some states.

I'd note this as I suspect in any crowed of people cheering for those who are pondering illiberal democracy there are, for lack of a better blunt way to put it, cohabiting birth control users.

Of course, that highlights once again that the rank and file of the far right camp isn't really in touch with some other aspects of this far right movement.  Hageman is an establishment Republican, or was.  She's espousing a set of ideas that fit into the illiberal democracy book, however.  But then many of these ideas cross over.

Anyhow, it's pretty hard to imagine Rod Dreher being comfortable with tattooed Trump rally goers.  Would he be comfortable with Frank Eathorne?

Thursday, September 16, 2021

Wednesday September 16, 1931. A consumate liar.

On this day in 1931, the Texas Senate passed a resolution calling Louisiana Governor Huey Long a "consummate liar".

Long probably wasn't bothered by the declaration.

If nothing else, I guess it shows that political wackiness is nothing new.

On the same day, three gunmen members of the Purple Gang were killed in Detroit in the Collingwood Manor Massacre.


Tuesday, May 18, 2021

The GOP. What in the world is going on?


Elizabeth Cheney has been booted from her leadership position in the House of Representatives.  Trump is back to issuing short missives in his somewhat bizarre syntax.

And yesterday I saw my first anti Cheney vehicle sticker. [1]

What is going on?  Aren't we past all this?

Well it appears not.

So, as a short primer to what's up, we offer this.

Liz Cheney.

Why was Liz Cheney booted from her leadership position?

Contrary to the way some would have it, Cheney hasn't been booted from the GOP No. 3 spot because she voted to impeach Donald Trump, or for his feelings that he has no place in the GOP. 

No, it was because she wouldn't shut up about her opinions.  

Her opinions are probably a lot more widely held than many in the House would ever admit. They're certainly widely held in the Senate.  She kept vocalizing them, that's the problem.

And her opinion is that the January 6 insurrection was just that, an attempt to subvert the 2020 election through a species of coup.

And she's correct.

Chances are that most House members who were in the House prior to 2020 agree with that.  Beyond that, some will privately admit that Donald Trump has been a disaster for the GOP.  He lost the White House.  He's directly responsible for losing the Senate. Under his watch the Republicans lost the House.  Now the most liberal Democratic Administration since LBJ, or maybe FDR, is in office and most Republican gains since the 1970s are set to be tossed out the door.

Jimmy Carter, for example, is still remembered as a Presidential disaster for such failings, although he personally is regarded as an honorable guy and Trump never really has been.  The Democrats dropped Carter like a hot rock after his defeat.

It's the Trump connection with the insurrection that Cheney refuses to keep quiet about.

Most well informed Republicans in government want people to be quiet about January 6.

Donald Trump, rich former Democrat who is from a rich family, who never served in the military, and who is a serial polygamist, who somehow has come to identify the values of the common man and still seemingly does, after presiding over a complete Republican loss of power at the national level.

Why won't Cheney be quiet?

Simple enough. Cheney fears that by failing to root out Trump and Trumpism, the 2024 election is going to be a repeat of January 6.  Trump and his backers will insist they won when they didn't, and a second coup will be attempted.

The worst case scenario on that is that it works and democracy will be dead in the U.S. [2]

There's a real chance of this.

The best case scenario, if that happens, is the end of the GOP, which at that point it would fully deserve.  The country would be completely ungovernable for at least four or more years, and the decent into this territory can't be climbed completely back out of.

Indeed, just from a pure "what, me worry?" approach, if Trump is the 2024 nominee, it'll mean at the end of the day a Kamala Harris two term presidency.  Those choosing Trump as the hill to die are on pretty much the best campaigners Harris has.

Why won't the Republicans join her?

The GOP is afraid of the Trump populists.

Trump brought a lot of populist into the party and they're "his base".  Not all of them are actually in the party, it should be noted. That's why the press loves to delight in interviewing a "life long Democratic voter who supports Trump. . . "

At any rate, all eyes are focused, in the GOP, on populists. . . and nobody else.  Indeed, the GOP is like a restaurant owner focused on the dining area while the long time workers are walking out the back door.

We'll get to that, but first. . . 

Um, what are populists?

Huey Long, Democratic populist of the 1930s.  While he's largely regarded as a gadfly, he retains some fans to this day.

Populism is one of those things that everyone tends to recognize when they see it, which doesn't mean its easy to define.

Indeed, we'll give you a variety of definitions.

In an article by the BBC:

In political science, populism is the idea that society is separated into two groups at odds with one another - "the pure people" and "the corrupt elite", according to Cas Mudde, author of Populism: A Very Short Introduction.

Merriam-Webster defines it as this:

Definition of populist

 (Entry 1 of 2)

1a member of a political party claiming to represent the common peopleespeciallyoften capitalized a member of a U.S. political party formed in 1891 primarily to represent agrarian interests and to advocate the free coinage of silver and government control of monopolies
2a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people

Well, is representing the views of the common people bad?

Certainly not, the problem however is fleshed out in the BBC article and a bit in the history of the U.S. Populist Party.

Populism, at its core, has the concept that "the people" are vested with a certain degree of common wisdom and are best suited to define a nation's politics and, to some extent, to define the nation itself.  Contrary to what some would generally claim, populism always exists in every democracy and it is not a bad thing in and of itself.  Indeed, when a strongly anti populist element openly exist in a nation's political culture, and it has in ours for some time, it's a sign that the politics of the nation is ill [3]. At any rate, populist influence isn't a bad thing in a country's politics and if it doesn't exist, that's a real problem itself.

The root of the populist problem, when it arises, has to due with the human capacity, and inevitability, to organize.  Being made up of "the people" (although it never actually represents the full "people"), in order to get voice populism has to form its own party or be incorporated into an existing one. Both have occurred in the U.S. at different times.  Of note, populist political parties only tend to arise in times of real significant stress aimed at the demographic that forms them.

Indeed, generally the opposite in the case.  Existing parties incorporate populist ideas to greater or lesser degrees.  While the founders gave voice to a desire that no political parties, which they termed "factions" should arise in the US, that thought was naïve and of course they did, and rapidly. The first two such factions were the Federalist and the Anti Federalist, with the Anti Federalist, the predecessors of the Democratic Party (bearing next to no resemblance, however, to the current Democratic Party) incorporating ideas that we'd recognize as populist.

Thomas Jefferson, Agrarian and somewhat proto populist, he defines some of the irony of populist leaders.  Champion of the common farmer, he was a large planter, critic of slavery, he held slaves and indeed held a mistress or common law wife, or whatever she was, in bondage, along with their children.

That example, however, is telling.  The Anti Federalist as a group were lead by Thomas Jefferson, and hence are also called the "Jeffersonian Republicans" or the Democratic-Republicans.  Thomas Jefferson was an agrarian philosopher and virtually worshiped the common yeoman farmer, but he was far from that himself. The same man who thought that a democracy could only exist as long as most of its citizens were yeomanry, was a slaving holding planter and lawyer.  I.e., he was part of the Virginia elite.  Indeed, almost all of the founders of the republic, while holding strong democratic ideals, were members of the elite.

What that demonstrates is that normally populist ideas are incorporated into parties, to greater or lesser degrees, but the parties themselves are normally headed by people who really don't fit the description of "common man" for the most part.

Harry S. Truman, who really was a common man. . . and not a populist by any means.

Having said that, that works well enough most of the time. Particularly in the United States, the leaders of political parties are closer to being common men than we might imagine, even if they are not.  They aren't, and it isn't as if we've ever elected a President off the floor of a General Motors plant, but as noted, they're closure than we might suppose. Some, like Lyndon Johnson or Harry Truman, have in fact been quite close and Truman was arguably truly a common man, although he wasn't a populist at all.

As noted, the problem arises in times of stress.  But more than that, it arises in times of stress when the voice of the common man has been ignored.  In the case of the U.S., that's pretty much been since the early 1970s.  

Prior to the 1970s the U.S was living off of the fact that the US emerged from World War Two with the only intact industrial economy.  Germany, the main European industrial power, had its economy destroyed by four years of bombing followed by major armies fighting in the streets, followed by being split in half.  The United Kingdom had endured a solid year of destructive bombing, a major campaign against its merchant fleet, the complete conversion of its economy to war materials, and the loss of an economic system based on raw materials being imported from its extensive empire.  The only industrial power in Asia was Japan and its primitive industry had been completely destroyed by U.S. bombing. We were it.

That meant that blue collar jobs, and jobs simply not requiring more than a high school degree. . . or not even requiring a high school degree, were well paying and made for good careers.

Factory workers in New York going home, 1940s.

But more than that, the American economy of the 1950s and 1960s was based upon a social structure that predated the and wasn't that impacted by it due to the war.  Women in the workforce had been increasing since the 1890s, contrary to common presumption, but the type of work had started off with the most menial and then improved.  None the less, in the 50s and 60s married women were generally not expected to have to work, and most women married.

The social upheaval of the 1960s was a gut punch to the class we're speaking of.  Not only did it take a hit, but it was lampooned in the US.  It wasn't uniquely attacked here, however, and arguably it took its first solid hits in the United Kingdom, where the post war world was a massive disappointment.  At the same time a massive boom in university education altered economic expectations which, for a time, could actually be realized.  Adding to this, Hugh Hefner had launched an assault on conventional values starting in 1953 which were actualized in new ways with the introduction of pharmaceutical birth control in the early 1960s.  The "working" demographic was beginning to feel forgotten and betrayed by the late 1960s.

A message from 1953. . . from 1943.

In the early 1970s the nation endured the period of inflation that was devastating to the economy while at the same time the economy began to convert full scale into one that required women to work and, just to get by, required husband and wife to work.  A reform in immigration laws wiped out an old system that favored European immigrants, who had a close cultural connection with the American blue collar demographic and which more or less opened the floodgates to massively increased immigration.  At the same time the US stood by while much of its lower level industry went overseas, something that was seen as a good thing by American political elites who thought that this simply cleared the way to an ongoing industrial evolution in which the US would basically entirely convert to white collar work, irrespective of whether people wanted that sort of work or not.

And hence the stress.  People who had for generations worked in factories or farms were marginalized and told to get used to it. At the same time, families that had strong social cohesion in this class found that they increasingly couldn't recognize their former country as it changed. Entire families in which divorce had never existed found that their children were in rebellion against conventional norms, and sooner or later some of them were having children with no father in the picture, something that became a burden on the generation that was still together.

In reaction to this, the same class wanted a return to the former condition, by which it did mean a return to the past.  It was too late to do that, but not only was their no attempt, it was simply ignored.  One ignored generation turned into two, then three.

Now here, in noting all of this, we also are slipping into the next problem.  Who is that common man anyway?  

In the case of the US its the demographic, as already noted, that worked in factories and fields since the onset of the nation, sort of.  Americans in that class had originally been mostly white and mostly descended from immigrants from Great Britain, but that changed a good deal over time.  And, revealing a distinct problem with populism, it excluded certain "others".

Regarding  themselves as the founders of the country, and not without justification for that view, they viewed others outside of the group as not really part of the story to the same degree.  African Americans certainly weren't included in this group, even though in terms of labor they fully shared the story.  Native Americans were rather obviously outside of it.  Originally, in the countries early history, Catholics and Jews were also outside of it.[4].  As time went on, this remained the same in some locations and changed in others, but it tends to remain a Protestant white Euro American point of view even though not all who espouse it are religious, Christian or white.  While I've not seen a poll of it, however, chances are that the overwhelming majority of current populist are nominally Protestant whites.

Which brings us to the next problem.  Populism, in times of stress evolves towards a strong them vs. us type of view, and from there go into a tribal "real people" v "the others" type of mentality if their leadership allows them to.  That's what's happened in the U.S.

As noted, most of the time, populist are part of the group.  But if sufficient stress is applied populist tend to feature the same evolution as other strongly demographic political parties or movements do, which is evolution towards a worshipped central leadership.  Indeed, stressed populism strongly resembles fascism and communism that way, both of which have strongly populist elements, although that's rarely admitted.

Logo of Hungary's ruling party which has strongly populist concepts.

In that them vs. us type of atmosphere, the concept of "real" develops in a frightening fashion.  Populists tend to define themselves as the real citizens of a nation.  Others are regarded as fakes.  As noted, this tend to lean into fascism, and we can see that right now in Hungary where the leadership of the country strongly identifies itself with the traditional cultural values of the majority of the nation.  And we can see that in the United States as well.  

In 2016 populist in the United States leaned at first in heavily Democratic direction finding hope in the message of Bernie Sanders.  Donald Trump's political genius was in co-opting that demographic, which largely went over to him, in no small part due the Democrats nominating Hilary Clinton, an outward and obvious member of the political elite.

As noted above, a strong element of populism is the assumption that elites are out to get them.  This belief isn't without reason, as the exportation of American industry overseas in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrates. The ongoing and continual ignoring of the American immigration problem since that time provides another obvious example, as Republicans and Democrats conspired to keep immigration rates high for their own purposes.  But by and large this story is mixed at best, even where it does occur.

A sense of betrayal by elites is natural, however, when the leaders in a society are very clearly not part of the overall norm.  No President since Ronald Reagan could really pretend to be a member of the average American demographic and he was likely the last one whom people thought of that way. The Bush family certainly didn't have that atmosphere. Even Barack Obama, who started off in rather poor circumstances, didn't attempt that.

Donald Trump did.

Trump didn't pretend to be a common man, but he promised to do what the common man wanted.  Trump is a salesman, and as a salesman he mostly sold himself.  He did a good job of selling himself to a dispossessed demographic.

Trump was once a Democrat and there's no real way to know what he thinks on anything.  He may believe what he says or not, or both. But what Trump is more about than anything else is Trump.  He's sold his image to the populist and the identify themselves with him.

If Trump was just a gadfly politician, like populist Huey Long, that would present a problem. But Trump is more than that.  He's egotistical to a malevolent level and he can't stand the thought of loss.  It isn't that he's a populist, if he is.  It's that Trump is anti democratic, and he's converted the populist to being anti democrats as well, based on the extreme concept that everyone who opposes them isn't a real American.

Well haven't the Republicans always been populists anyway, and there's never been a problem before?

No, not even close.

Since the 1912 Presidential Election, the GOP has been the conservative party.  It wasn't always that, indeed it was a liberal party originally.  But it's been definitively conservative, if not always the same kind of conservative, since 1912. [5]. In some ways, the party was heading towards a combination of liberalism, or as it was then called "progressivism" and populism at that time. [6]. The 1912 debacle ended that and its been conservative ever since.

Not surprisingly, like everything else in this area, a debate can be had on what "conservative" means.  The Oxford dictionary defines it as follows:

con·ser·va·tism
/kənˈsərvədizəm/

noun
  1. 1.
    commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation.
    "proponents of theological conservatism"
  2. 2.
    the holding of political views that favor free enterprise, private ownership, and socially traditional ideas.
    "a party that espoused conservatism"

I think number two is probably largely correct, but an added element of it is that underlying political conservatism is a general "outward" nature which contrast it with modern progressivism.  I.e., political conservatives are generally skeptical that we know that much about anything in concrete terms, believe that human nature doesn't change, and that larger things are really metaphysical in nature and not subject to our whims.  For that reason, conservatives are cautious about disrupting anything traditional as the feeling is that it is probably based on something solid and what it is replaced with has no guaranty of being better.  Additionally, conservatives are much more likely to believe that the universe is governed by laws set by something other than us, and we ought to pay attention and attempt to comport to them.

Conservatives and populist definitely overlap on some things and for that reason, it's easy to confuse the two. For example, most conservatives value tradition, and populist definitely do.  Conservatives value religion, and populist claim to.  But even in these things there's distinct differences.

Populist tend to value tradition as they view it as nearly endowed with the force or religion, which is interesting as they are often likely, in the American case, to be more in the nature of nominal Christians than than practicing ones.  Indeed, conservatives are often highly likely to be practicing members of their faiths but to also hold that elements of their faiths have no directly political application to everything.  This is not to say that they don't apply their religious views to their politics, as that would be untrue.

To given as example of this, I've heard in recent years some people speak of the founding documents of the American republic in religious terms, taking the strongly implied view that God has ordained a certain view of the nation and its founding documents.  Nearly no conservative holds that view.

This therefore gives similar, but not identical, views of the nation's history and culture. Both conservatives and populist are likely to view the nation's history in a traditional, and patriotic, sense, but conservatives are not beyond questioning and qualifying elements of it.  Populists, on the other hand, are enormously resistant to any change in popular history and tend to regard that as an attack upon the nation.  Again, giving an example, conservatives questioned the 1619 project as politically motivated, but didn't get too excited about that and have always held the view that the nation isn't prefect, as nothing is.  Populist have been horrified by the 1619 project and sponsored their own, through the Trump Administration, counter argument in the 1776 Project which had its own political arguments.

Re culture, mentioned above, most conservatives tend to regard the country has having a "Judeo  Christian" culture, which they take quite seriously.  "Judeo Christian" itself reflects, to a degree, the evolution in their thought however as it encompasses all of the Christian religions and the Jewish faith, a pretty broad definition.  Populist, however, tend to take the view that the nation is a Christian nation, by which they mean a Protestant American type of Christianity.  Deep conservatives tend to take religious doctrine extremely seriously, and as a general rule, they're most members of a faith they take seriously and adhere to, although there are exceptions.  Populists, interestingly enough, tend to espouse a religious believe but are often very unobservant, and sometimes regard religious tenants much the same way they do political ones, i.e., as subject to the will of the people.[7].

Overall, conservatives tend to hold the view that we're pretty flawed and not going to get everything anywhere near close to correct, so we ought to be very careful about trying to.  Populist tend to believe that if the nation took root in the traditions of the country, as they imagine them, things would be darned near prefect.  Indeed, in that sense, they share a common trait with progressives, who believe that the world can be made darned near perfect and its all up to us.  As noted, the current populist waive started in the Democratic Party, not the Republican one.

And all that is why this is a big problem.

Conservatives in the GOP have always strongly believed in democracy, as they would. That's the nation's tradition, and they're not about to disrupt it.  Populist in the current era, however, believe that they're facing an overarching threat from an "other".  

When Donald Trump warned that the "they" were going to "take your country", conservatives and populists heard two different things. To conservatives, the warnings about assaults on traditional culture, which definitely have been going on, stand to thrust the nation into the whacky unknown, and therefore they need to be politically opposed.  To populist, that's a battle cry that "the other", the enemy, is assaulting the real country, as they define it, and needs to be opposed by any and every means.

And that would include challenging the legitimacy of an election, as populist would view any effort against them, in the end, as illegitimate in this current atmosphere.  As populist tend to only organize under extreme stress, and as Trump tapped into that and caused himself to be identified with the populist, he's achieved identification with their concerns on a personalized and individualized basis.  That's dangerous in and of itself, but when its combined with a personality whose principal point his himself, it's particularly dangers and undemocratic.

Yikes!  So why aren't all the Republicans behind Cheney?

Cartoon showing the populist William Jennings Bryan as a snake swallowing the Democratic Party. The same image could be used today with Trump as the snake and the GOP elephant being swallowed.

Well, there's a lot of reason for that.

To start with, probably more of the Republican's in Congress are behind Cheney, without saying anything, than we know, but more of them are in the Senate than the House.  Mitch McConnell basically stated that Trump should be tried for sedition.

The House changes over a great deal more, and much more quickly, than the Senate does, which partially explains the disparity there.  By this, what we mean is that there are Congressmen who came up in the Trump era and rode his coattails.  Some of them are genuine Trumpites, and others don't dare upset voters who are in the Trump camp.  

And a lot of Republicans just flatly don't' see the danger, or disagree that it is there, and are more worried about retaining the populist voters. This is subject to a double miscalculation, but it's still there.  

People thinking that way have only their own experience to go on, and that of the Republican Party. The GOP has not experienced a populist influx since 1900-1914 and its outside of its institutional memory. For a lot of those people, an American political party can't act against democracy as it just hasn't happened to them or their party before.  Indeed, the last American political party to have a strong, and anti democratic, populist wing was the Democratic Party.  The Democrats had a strongly racist, and hence anti democratic, wing that lasted into the early 1980s.  The Democrats handled that by effectively marginalizing it at the national level, but it also yielded to it in the South.  It did fail to do so, however, in 1860, and that of course lead to the Civil War.  Anyhow, in spite of the example just provided to us, those Republicans just can't believe that Trump will strike out against democracy again.

And some, probably fairly cynically, are wagering that old age will catch up with Trump prior to 2024.  I'd guess them right, but there's no way to know.

That's likely what people like Mitch McConnell are wagering.  Time marches on and the ravages of that march are more telling on a person the older they get.  Four years in your twenties goes by slowly and you're likely to be in just as good of shape at the end of the four as the beginning. Four years in old age goes by like a flash and you stand a good chance of being worse off in the end than the beginning.  Trump gives no signs of taking care of himself and his age and condition could catch up with him at any point.  People like McConnell are gambling that it will, and the problem will simply pass, leaving the Trump voters, but not Trump.

The problem with that is, of course, several fold.  It leaves you saying nothing, with silence being consent in 2022. But Trump isn't going to be silent. And he may in fact still be around in 2024 and run for office, in which case he'll be the nominee as it'll be a bit too late to contest him.

It also assumes that rank and file Republicans will be around as well.

And that's a big miscalculation.

The GOP is so focused on Trump voters staying in the party that it doesn't seem to notice that traditional Republicans, including conservatives, are leaving. The Republicans feel that Trump brought them big net gains, but the evidence is against it.  Trump lost the popular vote for the oval office twice, which isn't a measure of success, and the Republicans lost both the House and the Senate under his watch.  That would seem to be an indication of failure, not success.  

And the January insurrection is driving people out of the GOP. Even at the local level, where supposedly the state is all behind Trump, there's been one newly elected Republican who has claimed that that the party is now dead.

Indeed, by 2024 the GOP may be so populist that it simply becomes a populist party, which will doom it to irrelevance and cause it to disappear.  Conservatives are already discussing openly bolting the party now.

Indeed Republicans with an eye towards history may wish to recall that the Democrats lost their populist wing when Reagan openly courted it, as that branch was isolated to the South.  That loss turned out to be a gain as the Democrats were freed of a racist wing and history.  Its regaining strength in the South, but not with the baggage it once had.  The GOP has the opportunity to accelerate that process right now, if only it'll avail itself of the opportunity.  

But it shows no signs of doing that.

And ironically, populist have proven to be a particularly fickle demographic.  Populist attempted to form their own party but it only existed from 1892 to 1909, with its voters going over to both parties.  The Republican Party flirted with populism in the 1900 to 1912 time frame only to abandon it, with its populists going to the Democrats or into more radical movements.  Southern Democratic populists stuck with the Democratic Party for a long time, having really nowhere else to go, but turned against it three times after World War Two, attempting to form two new short lived parties before simply abandoning the party entirely for the GOP with Ronald Reagan.  This all makes sense in that the base of any populist movement is made up of regular people who, after all, are busy trying to just get by.

And as a core element of populism under stress is a sense of betrayal, the GOP runs the risk that Trump may prove the ultimate betrayer.  The current Democratic Administration is giving populism plenty of fuel as much of what it is espousing is outright contrary to populist sentiments. By the same token, of course, this is true of conservatism as well.  But if Trump ends up being exposed in a critical way, the famously volatile nature of American fame could change overnight.

Indeed, even in politics, the lessons of this are pretty clear.  It's often noted that the Vietnam War was fought by common Americans, and this is very true for those who entered the service prior to the last Vietnam War era draft.  It's also noted that the same demographic went into the war believing that the US simply couldn't be on the wrong side of a war.  When the war became questionable, many felt irreversibly betrayed.  By the same token, if its shown that Trump lied in some significant way, and there's plenty of investigatory efforts regarding Trump right now, the same demographic may change its views on him and the GOP overnight.

If the GOP doesn't confront a Trump focused populism, it may, at the most, retain the Trump voters, and will retain Trump, but that may be it.  In 2024, if Trump remains capable of running, Trump will claim the election was stolen but the margins are likely to be  high for a Harris campaign that leaves no real doubt. The regular Republicans will have left the party and either have formed a new one or be in search of a new place to form a conservative opposition party. The populists will have dwindled too, having lost interest over time for the most part, if times are good, or having grown upset with defeat, if times are bad.

Footnotes

1.  I can't recall what it was exactly, although it claimed Cheney was a "swamp rat".  My guess is that the same person was a big Cheney backer this time a year ago.

I do recall the other sticker, which was an outline of a lemon and the words "all juice, no seeds", meaning that the vehicle occupant was advertising both his vasectomy and promiscuity.  The extent to which this society has really descended to the depths is pretty well summarized in some ways by that.

2.  Okay, I want to squelch right here that "we're not a democracy, we're a republic" line that people routinely spout out on this topic seemingly not knowing that this is about the most ill informed thing on this topic you can say. Yes, we're a democracy.  We're also a republic. You can be both.  Shoot, you can be a democracy and a monarchy for that matter.

If you have been spouting this, stop immediately, go back to 6th grade, and repeat civics.

Yes, we're not a direct democracy.  No country on earth is.  And we're not a parliamentary democracy.  So freaking what?  That doesn't mean we're not a democracy.  If the people vote in free and fair elections for their government, it's democracy.  If they vote for a representative in parliament, it's a parliamentary democracy.  If they vote in a system that incorporates regional representation, it's a federal democracy.

Saying we're "a republic, not a democracy", makes just about as much sense as telling somebody "we're riding in a sedan, not a car".  

No, it's a car.

3.  The antithesis of populism is elitism, which isn't a good things.  The Democratic Party for some time has had strongly elitist elements, which is part of the problem we're now facing.  Populism, in its worst phases, becomes a them v us type of movement. The Democrats, for their part, are creating a real "them".  It feeds into itself.

4.  As late as World War Two the government issued a post reminding Americans that Catholics and Jews were real Americans.

5.  Of some interest, the last time the People's Party, an American populist political party, ran a Presidential candidate was 1908.

6.  Progressivism in 1912 isn't really the same thing it is today, although its related.

7.  Which gets back to the sticker noted above.  Conservatives wouldn't advertise promiscuity on a sticker, as they wouldn't approve of it.  Apostolic Christians, moreover, wouldn't advertise surgical birth control, and beyond that as many conservatives have a high regard for natural systems, even those without a religious orientation would be disinclined to go in this direction.

Lots of street level populists however don't see this conflict at all, and while they bemoan the decline of society, plenty are willing to participate on in it.  The liberalization, or some would say libertineization of sex in the U.S. is a "liberal" or progressive matter, and therefore even some of the same group of people, in this instance, who would be bothered by progressive advocates for LGBTQ causes, if they are populists and not conservatives, have no basic problem with non traditional sexual behavior on their own part and don't see that as contrary to a Christian faith that they loosely espouse.