Showing posts with label John Barrasso. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Barrasso. Show all posts

Friday, July 4, 2025

Wars and Rumors of War, 2025. Part 4. The GBU-57A/B MOP Edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.


GBU-57A/B MOP
You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they kill you in a new way. 
Will Rogers.
We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.
Donald Trump.

We find ourselves with another predictive entry.

Yesterday, June 17, was an extremely odd day.  Trump left the G7 meeting austensibly to deal with the war between Israel and Iran, but notably before the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine came up.

Trump, of course, had promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia upon being nominated to the Oval Office.

He lied.

Since that time, he's been an enthusiastic supporter if Israel's ongoing war in Gaza and, as of yesterday, was indicating that the US saved the life of Iran's Supreme Leader, but the US may decide to kill the de facto Iranian head of state itself, something that nations generally do not do and which frankly would make Trump fair game in the eyes of Iranian radicals.  Trump might finally get a first hand taste of being the enemy the way he did not in the 1960s.

Threatening to murder, and that's exactly what it would be, the head of a state of a foreign country is moronic, as well as deeply immoral.

It appears that Mike Huckabee, whom Trump stupidly appointed as the American Ambassador to Israel, has Trump's ear, which is dangerous.  Huckabee sent a weird missive to Trump yesterday or the day before which Trump praised and reposted.  Huckabee is a Christian Zionist/Millennialist Restorationist who seeks to help bring about the Second Coming by advancing the cause of Israel.  A minority branch of Protestantism, which itself is a minority of Christians, there's likely nothing Israel could do that Huckabee won't back. He's basically backing the United States entering the war against Iran.

The reason that Israel would want that to occur is depicted above.  Israel is attempting to end the Iranian nuclear program, and perhaps achieve much more, from the air.  By now it's probably clear that it can't do that without use of a GBU-57A/B MOP, assuming that could even do it.  The GBU-57A/B MOP is the worlds' largest deep penetration bunker buster bomb, and it might, but only might, be able to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

Only one airplane in the world right now can carry the GBU-57A/B MOP, that being the B-2 bomber.  The B-52 can also carry then, but none are currently set up to do so. The B-2 can carry two.

And it's highly probable that they've asked the US to deploy them for this purpose.

And fairly probable the US will do so.

June 18, 2025

Israel v. Iran
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Israel claimed Tuesday to have killed a top Iranian general as it traded more strikes with its longtime foe, and U.S. President Donald Trump warned residents of Tehran to evacuate while demanding that Iran surrender without conditions.
From the AP.

On the above, there's a pretty good chance that Trump feels that acting like he's going to attack Iran is going to convince Iran to enter some sort of bargain.  Iran is pretty hard to intimidate.

Also, there's a good chance that Trump will TACO the moment and suddenly declare he achieved something, once he thinks over the consequences of attacking Iran, or once clearer heads than Mike Huckabee's get to him.  Not that I want him to attack Iran.  I think that would be stupid.

If the latter occurs, Trump's loyal fans will claim that he was the master negotiator, but I doubt Israel will quit pounding Iran, and that Iran will quit responding.  Israel has the upper hand right now, but it's extremely difficult to win a war only through the air, and Israel has no ability to deploy ground forces against Iran. For that matter, Iran's neighbors likely wouldn't tolerate that.  It's an impossibility, however.  Air wars degrade over time as targets reduce or become less vulnerable, and Israel is unlikely to be able to protect itself from missile strikes indefinitely.

June 19, 2025

Israel v. Iran

Iran hit Israel with a ballistic missile carrying a cluster munition warhead hitting, amongst other things the Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva.

Donald Trump is weirdly claiming that he'll take two weeks to decide if the US will enter the war, which a competent leader would not announce, even if contemplating it.

Legally entering the war would require a Declaration of War, which won't be occurring and a bare minimum the War Powers Act should come into play.

June 22, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

The US hit Iranian nuclear targets yesterday.  Trump's speech on the same:

Thank you very much.

A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive, precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime. Fordo, Natanz and Esfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise.

Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.

Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not. Future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.

For 40 years, Iran has been saying. Death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs, with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. We lost over 1,000 people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East, and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate in particular. So many were killed by their general, Qassim Soleimani. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue.

I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.

Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan 'Razin' Caine, spectacular general, and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.

With all of that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's was the most difficult of them all, by far, and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.

 And I want to just thank everybody. And, in particular, God. I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you.

The legality of this is really questionable, as is the wisdom, and effectiveness, of it.  And the development of the US openly taking a part in a Middle Eastern War, started by Israel, on behalf of Israel, is a dangerous development.  The US has never done that before.

As war is an extension of politics by other means, and all politics is local:

June 23, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

Since the US B-2 missions (which were impressively flown out of Missouri in the longest bombing mission of all time), there have global reactions to the strike, some of which praised it.  It's clear that European nations generally support them.

Russia issued a statement in which it condemned them and indicated that now other nations may transfer nuclear weapons to Iran.  How much Russia can be trusted in regard to anything it states is a clearly open question, but being concerned about this possibility, particularly as Pakistan is nearby, is perhaps merited.  Likewise, being concerned about what rogue state North Korea may do is also warranted.

Iran itself has indicated that it will close the Straits of Hormuz and that it will otherwise retaliate.

The morality of this action is debatable and interesting.  It's clearly an act of war with no clear exist strategy based on the hope of Iranian concession.  However, the argument can be made that waiting until Iran had a nuclear weapon, which they are clearly working on, would put the world in an untenable position.  

That it is an act of war was interestingly noted when a Congressman on This Week said Iran could "sue for peace".  You only sue for peace in a declared war, which this is not.

A group of Congressmen have put together a war powers resolution seeking to limit further US action.  It's all Democrats save for one Republican.  If history is our guide, politically most Americans will support action against Iran, at least at first.  If things drag on, they'll be discontented.  In the short term condemning the strike is probably a bad political move, but in the long term it might not be.  If Iran is not cowed into submission, and perhaps its regime can't afford to be, we'll either have to materially support an ongoing Iranian air war indefinitely or become more involved in it.  People repeatedly are noting that there will not be "boots on the ground", and there very likely won't be on a largescale, but on a small scale there may very well be.  If Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz the U.S. Navy will have to reopen them, and that will be a major task.

cont:

Yeoman's Fourth Law of History at work, and Donald Trump demonstrating that he doesn't know how economies work.

June 24, 2025

The United States and Israel v Iran

On the Iranian retaliation, which was muted:

Update Video: Iran “Retaliates.” It appears to be over.

Apparently a cease fire has been agreed to, although there may have been some post agreement fighting.

A ceasefire isn't a peace agreement. What's going on, and what was achieved, are the real questions.

And of course, Trump is acting weird.


And this:

We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

Donald Trump.

June 24, 2024

United States and Israel v. Iran.

An early assessment holds that Iran's nuclear facilities were not destroyed, only damages, and they're merely set back in the production of an atomic weapon a few months.

Can't say I'm surprised.

So the US attack may have simply reinforced the Iranian desire for a nuclear weapon.

cont:

A report by an expert on NPR Politics holds that there's no way that Iran's nuclear program was destroyed.

July 4, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Kyiv is getting pounded by a large scale drone attack.

The US has halted many weapons transfer programs to Ukraine on the basis that the US needs to rebuilt its own arms stockpile.

Last edition:

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 94th Edition. Performance Bad Art and the News.

My goodness.

An item in the cultural wind we noted yesterday here; 

Lex Anteinternet: Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 93d Edition. Porn ind...: Porn industry, Supreme Court weigh in as Wyoming requires age verification on adult sites : As of Tuesday, Wyomingites' access to some c...

That being this:

In other sex, sort of, news, a dude who looks like a dude went to the lady's room accompanied by the press (including a dude) and hoped to get arrested.

Transgender woman protests new law with visit to a Wyoming Capitol bathroom: Rihanna Kelver used the women’s restroom at the Wyoming Capitol building Tuesday in defiance of a new law prohibiting transgender people’s use of public facilities.

Has managed to be a feature story in every Wyoming news outlet, it seems.  At least its in Wyofile, Cowboy State Daily, and the CST.

So, to get this straight, a guy, dressed as gal, goes to the lady's room, and nothing happens.

Is that really news?

If so why?

Well, because the dude claims to be a gal, and was hoping to get busted by the police, who had other things to do and didn't take note of it.

But still, you see (are you paying attention), he could have been arrested, really, he could have been. . . 

and was hoping to be. . . 

but, sadly, was not.

This is, I'd note, something for real conservatives to take note of. This guy has a mental illness being celebrated on the left as normal.  Almost everyone knows that's BS.  And the stench of that is what is causing, in part, conservatives, who would otherwise be horrified, to vote for a moral heap of stench such as Donald Trump, which Trump well knowns.

Indeed, right now, the Trumpites and his Merry Band of National Conservatives hope stuff like this keeps your eyes off the Big Ugly, and causes you to forget the Big Ugly in the next year.

And the press, for its part, plays into the delusion of the lies of the right and left.

Transgender woman protests new law with visit to a Wyoming Capitol bathroom

That didn't happen. What happened is a man who wants to be a girl, went to the capitol bathroom with members of the press and his female fiance (so I guess he's wants to be girl. . . but still marry a girl), hoping to be arrested, but nobody cares or even notices.  A headline reading:

Man goes to capitol bathroom dressed as woman and nothing happens

Wouldn't be news, I guess.

On the Big Ugly, headline from the Tribune.

Medicaid, insurance cuts in ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ will harm Wyoming, healthcare advocates warn.

I personally know one person whose a radical Trump fan who completely depends on government healthcare.  I suppose folks in that category deserve to get what's coming.

Chances are that Wyoming is going to be hammered by this. Chances are that Dr. John Barrasso, our Senator, knows that, even though he said it "probably" won't happen.

The question is if we care about the human impact or not.

Speaking of headlines, this is making the rounds:

First Wyoming measles case in 15 years found in Natrona County

I'm making assumptions here, but it's going to turn out that the negligent parents, or parent, didn't vaccinate their kid.

Wyoming has a first rate education system.  I note that, as a parent who wouldn't vaccinate a child probably isn't from Wyoming originally, I'm guessing, and is a dumbass.  The Wyoming Freedom Caucus sort of hates education, because educated people know stuff and won't play this game, tend not to believe their fanciful version of reality, and hence we have this headline.

Wyoming expected to see $686M deficit in education spending

With an ignorant population, they can hope to bring Wyoming into rural stupidity such as occurs elsewhere in the US and helps explain a population voting to slit their own throats.  They wouldn't see it that way, as they're ignorant themselves in many, although not all, instances. 

And we have this:

Trump mental health cuts hit rural schools hardest

Last edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 93d Edition. Porn industry retstricted, Supreme Court weigh in as Wyoming requires age verification on adult sites, Dudes in the lady room, and on women's teams, Trump helping where no law or help was needed.

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Best Posts of the Week of June 22, 2025. The Stop the Land Rape edition.

The best posts of the week of June 22, 2025.

It was quite a week.

In the West, it was a week of a dedicated effort by a coalition of various people, conservative and liberal, to stop a land rape proposal.  Whether it worked or not, to the extent we hope it will, isn't clear.

It was also a week in which it became clear that Wyoming's Congressional delegation really doesn't feel that it has to listen to the voters.

It was also a week in which it became increasingly clear that US intervention in Israel's' air war with Iran didn't achieve anything, which caused Donald Trump and his defense secretary Hegseth to start weirdly bouncing off the walls.

And it became increasingly clear that that the DOGE gutting of USAID killed thousands, while Robert F. Kennedy is launching off on killing more.

And we remembered a Soviet female soldier.

Congress woman Hageman responds, and Sen. Lee reacts.























Hoping this is true.

I'm really hoping this is true.  Lee has shown a total disregard for the wishes of nationwide voter.

And Hageman, Barrasso and Lummis have shown a contempt for Wyoming's voters that the electorate should remember.

This is only one aspect of the Big Ugly Bill that will come back to haunt us in spades. But at least, if this is true, this is past us.

Hopefully Lee is too.  Utah's voters should send him back to the private sector.

Hoping this is true.

I'm really hoping this is true.  Lee has shown a total disregard for the wishes of nationwide voter.

And Hageman, Barrasso and Lummis have shown a contempt for Wyoming's voters that the electorate should remember.

This is only one aspect of the Big Ugly Bill that will come back to haunt us in spades. But at least, if this is true, this is past us.

Hopefully Lee is too.  Utah's voters should send him back to the private sector.

Friday, June 27, 2025

Five Republicans listening to their base.

 



The margin on this bill is so tight that five votes has a very good chance of sinking it in the House.

Good for the five.

And shame on Wyoming's delegation in Congress if it does not follow suit.

Public Lands demand Action This Day.

 

It appears the Big Ugly Bill with Mike Lee's scheme to sell public lands that fall within the former putative state of Deseret, which he acts as if he represents, will occur today or tomorrow.

Call your people in Congress today and inform them you are opposed.

If you live in Wyoming, inform them that they better start putting in their resumes for post Congressional punditry right now, as you'll not vote for them for anything ever again.  They aren't representing you if they vote for this.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Maybe its time for Barrasso and Lummis to pack their bags.

From the CST:

Barrasso and Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming, did not oppose the original proposal, though Republican senators from Montana and Idaho did. But Wyoming’s congressional delegation heard concerns from a range of constituents. State Rep. Andrew Byron, R-Hoback, is among the Teton County residents making their voices heard opposing the proposed federal public lands sale.

Byron overnighted two letters to Barrasso and Lummis on Friday and emailed their chiefs of staff . By Saturday afternoon, he was on the phone with Barrasso. He said he has yet to receive a response from Lummis and her office.

Byron said Tuesday that he and Barrasso had a productive conversation, but the senator “downplayed” the concerns brought to him. Although Barrasso didn’t reveal his position on the public lands sale, Byron said Barrasso didn’t share his sense of urgency.

They're disregarding the voters.  

Send them home if they don't correct this.

They're counting on us forgetting this, and there's some outside incentive, or fear, for them ignoring us.  We need to be the bigger incentive, and they need to fear for their positions and reputations.

Related threads:

Wyoming's broken politics.


Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Going Feral: What's the deal with Mike Lee?

Going Feral: What's the deal with Mike Lee?

What's the deal with Mike Lee?


Mike Lee is like the cook who keeps putting nuts in fudge.  You tell them it's an infamnia, but they insist on doing it anyway, and telling you that you'll like it.  

"It's only a few. . . ".  "They're not peanuts, they're walnuts. . . "  "You can pick them out. . . ".

It's disgusting, and you don't want it.

Lee went from aggressively trying to get a public land sales provision in the Big Ugly Bill only to meat a firestorm of opposition, from the right and left, about it.  Ultimately he started scaling it back before the Senate Parliamentarian pulled it, either because it was genuinely against Senate Rules or in order to keep people like John Barrasso from having to commit on it.

Lee, however, hasn't give up.  He's telling his opponents, which includes nearly everyone (but not Wyoming Congress woman Harriet Hageman) that he's "listened" and is coming back with a bill we'll all like.

Nobody is going to like this.

This is really bizarre at this point.  Lee is choosing a massively unpopular bill as his hill to die on, and politically, it might do that.  A former Utah Congressman went down in flames and had to resign over similar efforts a decade ago.

What's up with Lee?

Well, I have one theory I'll write another post on, on Lex Anteinternet.

But all the reasons given for this are, well, crap.

Things are changing, albeit slowly, in Utah.  Lee's seat is probably safe, but maybe not as safe as he thinks.  The seats of other Republicans supporting this idea are not safe.  Barrasso has laid low during the storm, Lummis came out for it early on, and Hageman is all in.  Hageman may very well have ended her political career by going so.

Suffice it to say, however, until the nut fudge gets thrown up against the wall and the cook loose cooking privildges, somebody is going to try to keep serving it.

Tread lightly on our public land, politicians!

Tread lightly on our public land, politicians!: If Wyoming's congressional delegation continues to follow Trump's zeal to sell public lands in the West, they’ll face a political firestorm, writes columnist Rod Miller.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025