The British 2019 Election. The tell of the tape.

Conservatives took 364 seats.

Labour Party took 203.

In Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party took 48.

The United Kingdom, Scottish protests aside, will leave the EU.  This will probably occur by the end of January.

A new British immigration system will be ushered in which will be similar to the Australian one, requiring immigrants to have a job before entering the country.  EU citizens will have no preference over non EU immigrants.

Scottish nationalist will howl, but their ability to impact anything will decline.  Indeed, this result can be partially attributed to the fact that a referendum occurred on Scottish independence some years ago, something that was wholly unnecessary under the law but which boosted the power of Scottish nationalist, something which had been largely absent before that.  They'll howl now, but they'll be along for the ride, like it or not.

The Labour Party will start to reform and retreat from the hard left positions it was espousing.

The EU will be weakened significantly.  Anti EU sentiment exists in numerous localities within the EU itself, particularly outside of the few dominant nations, but even within them.  And the resurgence of the British right will lead to a resurgence in the European right as well, which is much further to the right than the British right is.

The British Conservatives Win Big (but Scottish Nationalist do too).

And so nationalism, both of the union and disunion type, triumphed over a British left that was going more left.

The Labour Party's defeat today in the UK was blistering.  Boris Johnson, whom some compare to Donald Trump, probably inaccurately, took a Conservative Party that lacked a majority six weeks ago and demolished a British left tainted by a leader who made anti Semitic comments while his already left wing party went further left.

So the results are that a British Conservative Party will dominate in a way that it hasn't for decades, even while Scottish nationalism appears resurgent.  Some predict that Northern Ireland will turn toward the Irish Republic, although quite frankly that seems extremely unlikely, and that the United Kingdom will fall apart.

I doubt that, but this British election does have a lesson for the American one.  Simply detesting an opponent and claiming he's boorish isn't a platform.  And in an era in which old nationalism, of both the conservative and radical variety, are resurgent, being an internationalist isn't a lesson for success.

The United States isn't the United Kingdom, but U.S. Democrats should take note.  Labourites were counting on Johnson's own character defeating the Conservatives not only miscalculated, they didn't calculate at all.  American Democrats counting on Trump defeating himself in the fall of the next year may likewise be making a tremendous miscalculation.  Indeed, my prediction is that the impeachment that the Democratic Party is about to launch the country into will turn first into a failed impeachment trail and then be used by President Trump as a bloody flag during the election.  It'll become the symbol of a "do nothing Congress" allied to the "Deep State".

Exactly how the Labour Party should have approached this election isn't clear to me.  It would seem, however, that opposing Brexit, which they had to do, shouldn't have been the hill that they chose to die on, if they did.  But beyond that, I suspect the following comment by a Labour MP sums up a lot quite quickly:

Caroline Flint

@CarolineFlintMP

We’re going to hear the Corbynistas blame it on Brexit and the Labour Uber Remainers blaming Corbyn. Both are to blame for what looks like a terrible night for Labour. Both have taken for granted Labour’s heartlands. Sorry we couldn’t offer you a Labour Party you could trust.

And that too should provide a lesson for U.S. Democrats.  Demographics that the Democrats have depended upon for decades are now showing disinterest in the party at what should be, for them, alarming rates.  That doesn't mean that the some voters are becoming Republicans, they probably only are in very small numbers. But it does mean that they are no longer reliable Democratic voters.  In spite of that, the Democrats have been taking positions that are contrary to these demographics even while basically claiming them as their own.

Whatever the lessons for American politicians are, I doubt they'll be learned. Labour learned a lesson tonight, but it may be years before they really digest the lesson to where they can adjust to it.  And, for that matter, the Scottish Nationalist Party may have learned false lessons in the same way that the Parti Quebecois has had, and then been forced to adjust to, over the years, that being a protest against Ottowa, or London, doesn't really necessarily mean that its a vote to depart.

Lex Anteinternet: Election Day. . .

Lex Anteinternet: Election Day. . .: in the United Kingdom, that is. Today the British go to the polls, again, in an election called on October 29. Yes, the British are deci...

And it appears that the Conservatives are in fact emerging with a clear majority in the first British December election since 1923.

If there were doubt on Britain and Brexit, in terms of resolve, this would appear to have addressed them.

Election Day. . .

in the United Kingdom, that is.

Today the British go to the polls, again, in an election called on October 29.

Yes, the British are deciding major political and policy matters with only a month and a half lead in time.

If only. . .

Well anyhow, the theoretical contenders for control of parliament, together with who would be PM if they should win, and their present share of the last vote, are: 1) Conservatives (Boris Johnson), 42.4%; 2) Laboour (Jeremy Corbyn), 40.0%; 3) Scottish Nationalist Party (Nicola Sturgeon) 3%; 4) Liberal Democrats (Jo Swinson) 7.4%; 5)  Democratic Unionist Party (Arlene Foster) .9%; and 6) Sinn Fein (Mary Lou McDonald) .7%.

Rather obviously, only Johnson or Corbyn will emerge the PM.

Corbyn has made a lot of news recently for anti semetic statements.  Johnson, of course, has made a lot of news for being Johnson.  Johnson is attempting to secure a pure majority, which he lacks, in order to push Brexit through.