Thursday, December 12, 2019

The British Conservatives Win Big (but Scottish Nationalist do too).

And so nationalism, both of the union and disunion type, triumphed over a British left that was going more left.

The Labour Party's defeat today in the UK was blistering.  Boris Johnson, whom some compare to Donald Trump, probably inaccurately, took a Conservative Party that lacked a majority six weeks ago and demolished a British left tainted by a leader who made anti Semitic comments while his already left wing party went further left.

So the results are that a British Conservative Party will dominate in a way that it hasn't for decades, even while Scottish nationalism appears resurgent.  Some predict that Northern Ireland will turn toward the Irish Republic, although quite frankly that seems extremely unlikely, and that the United Kingdom will fall apart.

I doubt that, but this British election does have a lesson for the American one.  Simply detesting an opponent and claiming he's boorish isn't a platform.  And in an era in which old nationalism, of both the conservative and radical variety, are resurgent, being an internationalist isn't a lesson for success.

The United States isn't the United Kingdom, but U.S. Democrats should take note.  Labourites were counting on Johnson's own character defeating the Conservatives not only miscalculated, they didn't calculate at all.  American Democrats counting on Trump defeating himself in the fall of the next year may likewise be making a tremendous miscalculation.  Indeed, my prediction is that the impeachment that the Democratic Party is about to launch the country into will turn first into a failed impeachment trail and then be used by President Trump as a bloody flag during the election.  It'll become the symbol of a "do nothing Congress" allied to the "Deep State".

Exactly how the Labour Party should have approached this election isn't clear to me.  It would seem, however, that opposing Brexit, which they had to do, shouldn't have been the hill that they chose to die on, if they did.  But beyond that, I suspect the following comment by a Labour MP sums up a lot quite quickly:
Caroline Flint
@CarolineFlintMP
We’re going to hear the Corbynistas blame it on Brexit and the Labour Uber Remainers blaming Corbyn. Both are to blame for what looks like a terrible night for Labour. Both have taken for granted Labour’s heartlands. Sorry we couldn’t offer you a Labour Party you could trust.
And that too should provide a lesson for U.S. Democrats.  Demographics that the Democrats have depended upon for decades are now showing disinterest in the party at what should be, for them, alarming rates.  That doesn't mean that the some voters are becoming Republicans, they probably only are in very small numbers. But it does mean that they are no longer reliable Democratic voters.  In spite of that, the Democrats have been taking positions that are contrary to these demographics even while basically claiming them as their own.

Whatever the lessons for American politicians are, I doubt they'll be learned. Labour learned a lesson tonight, but it may be years before they really digest the lesson to where they can adjust to it.  And, for that matter, the Scottish Nationalist Party may have learned false lessons in the same way that the Parti Quebecois has had, and then been forced to adjust to, over the years, that being a protest against Ottowa, or London, doesn't really necessarily mean that its a vote to depart.


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