You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
What do we mean by the defeat of the enemy? Simply the destruction of his forces, whether by death, injury, or any other means—either completely or enough to make him stop fighting. . . . The complete or partial destruction of the enemy must be regarded as the sole object of all engagements. . . . Direct annihilation of the enemy's forces must always be the dominant consideration.
Carl von Clausewitz.
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
Isoroku Yamamoto.
It didn't work.
The United States did not destroy Iran's nuclear program, it merely set it back several months.
That was, quite frankly, a pretty predictable outcome. Indeed, I predicted it.
The question is, now what?
Iran has learned that its security is, in fact, in building a nuclear weapon. It's going to do it.
The only way to stop that would be a ground invasion of Iran, which we don't have the stomach to do, and which Israel can't do.
Israel gambled that they could take control of the air, and that this was the time to do it. That set up the scene for the US to come in with the GBU-57A/B MOP, which they gambled we would.
We committed them.
It failed.
Military gambles are always judged in hindsight. Japan didn't take out the U.S. Navy on December 7, 1941, as the carriers weren't at Pearl Harbor. If they had been, the story would be different. The Germans didn't defeat the Soviets in Operation Barbarossa, but they came close. If it had worked, it would be regarded as one of the greatest military feats of all time, rather than a disastrous miscalculation.
We'll see what happens here, but my guess is that by this time next year, Iran has the bomb.
June 26, 2025
United States and Israel v. Iran
The Trump administration is getting increasingly spastic over the developing facts that Operation Midnight Hammer didn't really work, or rather than it achieved minor success but failed to achieve its objective.
As per usual, the administration simply accuses everyone who disagrees with them of lying or insulting servicemen. That's complete and utter nonsense. The objective was a tough one and the odds were against it.
Hegseth held a press conference today that was essentially a rant due to these questions being brought up. It was pathetic.
The big difference here, as compared to other Trump counterfactuals, is that the Trump smokescreen will evaporate with a mushroom cloud.
The question is how soon.
cont:
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared victory in the recent war and discounted the damage caused by American airstrikes. His tone was absolutely defiant.
June 27, 2025
United States and Israel v. Iran
After criticizing ‘warmonger’ Liz Cheney, Hageman backs U.S. intervention in Iran
I"m quite certain that Donald Trump could declare war on the entire world and Wyoming's delegation would support it.
June 29, 2025
Israel v. Hamas
As its seemingly now become too routine to take notice of, we will note that the fighting is still going on in Gaza. The humanitarian crisis carries on, and Israeli strikes this week killed 72 people.
June 30, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
The war in Ukraine, the one that Trump promised to end upon being nominated but then later stated that was "hard", is heating up.
Looks like Trump was full of crap about his magical negotiation powers. Where's that "art" of the deal?
Anyhow, Russia launched its biggest aerial of the war so far, firiging a total of 537 aerial weapons at including 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles. 249 were shot down and 226 were lost.
The Russians have amassed 50,000 troops near Sumy.
Israel v. Hamas
Israel has ordered evacuations from norther Gaza.
United States and Israel v. Iran
An interesting post:
The inmates are running the asylum! That is what it looks like to me. Their entire administration is not based on anything that resembles sanity.
And on the same topic:
Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinge· 12h
So what seems clear from the intel, is that we probably should have reloaded the B2s, and gone for a second round. Instead the impulsive toddler was desperate to have a strong ending to the movie and declare a cease fire.
This is a show to him, entertainment, and he’s the “star”
July 4, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Kyiv is getting pounded by a large scale drone attack.
The US has halted many weapons transfer programs to Ukraine on the basis that the US needs to rebuilt its own arms stockpile.
July 8, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Roman Starovoyt, age 53, who had been fired as Russian transportation minister just hours prior, was found dead from a gunshot wound in his car. Russian authorities stated suicide might be a possibility.
He's also been the governor of Kursk relatively recently.
July 9, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did not inform the White House before he authorized a pause on weapons shipments to Ukraine last week. Currently it seems Trump will resume them.
Trump reports he's upset with Putin, probably for busting the bubble that Trump has any persuasion over him. Trump's efforts at bringing about peace have failed.\
July 14, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
It appears that the US will be increasing military aid to Ukraine, funneling the new arms through other NATO countries.
Trump has indicated that if Russia doesn't end the war in 50 days he will impose 100% secondary tariffs.
July 17, 2025
Israel v. Hamas
An Israeli artillery shell hit the compound of the only Catholic church in the Gaza Strip, killing three people and wounding 10 others, including the parish priest.
It would seem Trump's much vaunted ceasefire didn't hold.
I suspect as these were Catholic deaths, there won't be much press on it.
Syrian Civil War
Heavy fighting has been going on between Druze and Bedouin tribes in the southern Syrian province of Suwayda, as another ceasefire has collapsed a day after Syrian troops pulled out of the area.
The area has a Druze majority.
July 20, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
The war Trump did end upon being nominated or sworn into office has been seeing some massive Russian drone assaults, including a 300 drone raid yesterday.
Israel v. Hamas
Israeli troops fired yesterday toward crowds of Palestinians seeking food from distribution hubs run by a U.S.- and Israeli-backed group in southern Gaza, killing at least 32 people. An air strike also occured.
Gee. . . it's almost like Trump didn't get peace in Gaza either.
Syrian Civil War
A ceasefire seems to be holding including Israel.
July 24, 2025
Thailand v. Cambodia
Thailand and Cambodia are fighting over a disputed border area.
July 25, 2025
Israel v. Hamas
France is recognizing the sovereignty of the territorial Palestinian Authority as a state.
July 27, 2025
Israel v. Hamas.
Israel is going to allow humanitarian air drops over Gaza.
July 29, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Trump has given Putin twelve days to end the war against Ukraine, which no doubt will be completely ignored.
Thailand v. Cambodia
The countries have entered into a ceasefire.
cont:
Israel v. Hamas
The UK has indicated it's set to shortly follow France in recognizing a Palestinian state if a peace isn't arrived upon soon.
It's almost like the US's opinion on this no longer matters. . .
July 31, 2025
Israel v. Hamas.
And now Canada is moving toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, a move which caused the Trump to threaten trade negotiations with Canada.
It should be clear, the US has lost its first place in the free world status in terms of these matters. Nobody is paying attention to the US on this issue and its now Eurocentric. We were replaced.
August 4, 2025
Middle East
The Houthi's hit Israel with drones today.
August 8, 2025
Israel v. Hamas
Israel has announced it intends to take full control of the Gaza Strip and eventually transfer its administration to friendly Arab forces.
The city itself is essentially destroyed. Who the "friendly" Arab forces would be really begs that question.
US v. drug cartels.
President Trump has secretly signed a directive to the Pentagon to begin using military force against certain Latin American drug cartels that his administration has deemed terrorist organizations, according to people familiar with the matter.
New York Times.
August 9, 2025
Russo Ukrainian War
Donald Trump and Vlad Putin are going to meet in Alaska.
The optics of this, I'd note, are awful. But then Trump's tastes are bad tastes.
Anyhow, they're going to discuss, apparently bringing the war to an end. Putin will have the high side of any debate as Trump has proven to be totally ineffectual in regard to the war, and indeed, most things, at least from a beneficial prospective.
Putin's already apparently indicated that he'll stop the war in exchange for Eastern Ukraine. That's an awful proposal, but the risk is that demented Trump won't realize its an awful deal.
Also, we have this:
Which is cool, in a weird sort of way.
This concludes this edition.
Explicit
Last edition:
Labels: 2020s, 2025, 2025 Israel v. Iran War, Cynthia Lummis, Donald Trump, Harriet Hageman, Iran, Israel, John Barrasso, Predictions, Russo Ukrainian War, United States, War, Wars and rumors of wars, Weapons, You heard it here first
